Is Humanity Smart Enough to Survive Itself? | Jeanette Winterson | TED

翻译人员: Yip Yan Yeung 校对人员: Grace Man

Here's what gives me hope for humanity.

我想谈谈我对人类的希望从何而来。

I believe that we can change our human nature for the better.

我相信我们可以让人性变得更美好。

This chance is unique.

这是个千载难逢的机会。

It's where we stand in history right now.

就在此时此刻。

No other generation has stood here before us.

之前没有一代人 站在过这个位置上。

Homo sapiens has been around for about 300,000 years.

智人已经存在了大约三十万年。

Other humanoid life forms have come and gone.

其他类人的生命形态 出现过又消失了。

We find their traces.

我们探索它们的踪迹。

We search for their stories.

我们追寻它们的故事。

But we are the success story.

但只有我们才是成功案例。

We've survived natural disasters, famines, floods, earthquakes, plagues,

我们挺过了自然灾害、饥荒、 洪水、地震、瘟疫、

woolly mammoths, mess-ups of our own making.

猛犸象和自己造的孽。

We're smart, no question.

毋庸置疑，我们很聪明。

The question is: Are we smart enough to survive how smart we are?

问题是：我们会聪明反被聪明误吗？

It's not looking so good just now, is it?

现在情况可不太好，对吧？

(Laughter)

（笑声）

We stand facing the possibility of global conflict.

我们正面临着发生 全球冲突的可能。

If that happens,

如果真的发生了， 那就会是这 100 年以内

it will be our Third World War

in not much more than 100 years.

爆发的第三次世界大战。

If Putin's violence stops today, the problem doesn't go away.

即使普京的武力行动现在停下了， 问题还是存在。

As across the globe

因为放眼全球，

dictatorism threatens democracy.

都有独裁威胁民主的情况。

I wonder whether as a species

我在想，就算这些威胁都消失了，

we can survive any of this,

我们人类真的能挺过去吗？

even if those threats disappear.

Those living inside the snow globe of their magical thinking

那些沉浸在自己幻想乡里的人，

will not be insulated against the facts of climate breakdown.

也无法避免受到气候崩溃的影响。

And yet, still, we go on heating up the planet.

而且我们还在继续让气候变暖。

Still we go on polluting the earth.

我们还在继续污染地球。

Still we despoil

我们还在破坏

our precious natural resources.

我们珍贵的自然资源。

250 years ago, we kick-started the Industrial Revolution.

250 年前， 我们开始了工业革命。

The machine age.

机器时代。

It's when we first hear the buzzwords of the modern moment.

我们第一次听说了 步入新时代的流行语。

Disruption, acceleration.

颠覆，加速。

That's Karl Marx, actually.

其实是卡尔·马克思 （Karl Marx）说的。

Acceleration of production,

生产提速，

the factory system, acceleration of transport,

工厂系统，运输提速，

the coming of the railways.

铁路的建成。

No need for ships to wait for the wind.

不需要等风来， 船就可以扬帆起航。

Coal-fired, steam-powered.

煤炭动力、蒸汽动力。

Acceleration of information.

信息提速。

The global village.

地球村。

And it's when we start digging fossil fuels out of the ground

这时，我们开始从地底 以足以改变地球的量

in planet-changing quantities,

开采化石燃料，

when we start pushing carbon dioxide into the atmosphere.

将二氧化碳排向大气。

In a salami slice of space-time,

仅仅在这历史长河中的一瞬间，

human beings have changed the way that we live on the planet forever.

人类就永久地改变了 我们在地球上的生存方式。

We've moved out of the agricultural economies

我们走出了代代相传、 一步一步发展出来的农业经济，

of our evolutionary inheritance

into the industrial economies and beyond of where we are now.

走进了我们如今的 工业经济和更多模式。

There's no one else for us to turn to.

没人能帮得了我们。

There's no one else for us to blame.

我们怪不了任何人。

There is no us and them.

没有“我们”和“他们”。

There's only us.

只有“我们”。

So will we continue to be the success story of the known universe,

接下来，我们还会是 已知宇宙中的成功案例吗？

or are we writing our own obituary?

还是在自掘坟墓？

The suicide species?

一个自寻死路的物种？

Now I was raised in an evangelical household.

我成长于一个福音派家庭。

We lived in end time.

我们相信世界末日会到来。

We were waiting for things to get so bad

我们等待着情况糟糕到

that Jesus would come back and save us.

耶稣都要回来拯救我们，

The apocalypse.

即为“世界末日”的到来。

It's what the prepper communities are, well, prepping for.

这就是为世界末日做准备的人 正在做的事，正在准备的事。

And it's why super rich white guys are buying up tracts of land,

也就是为什么白人土豪 会买下成片的土地，

hoping that they can live inside

希望他们可以住在那里，

a kind of wi-fi-enabled Noah's Ark.

类似于一个有 Wi-Fi 的诺亚方舟。

(Laughter)

（笑声）

Well, we can have the end time if we want it.

如果我们想见证世界末日的到来， 没问题。

We know those stories from our religions, our sci-fi, our movies.

我们都听说过来自宗教、 科幻小说、电影里的故事。

We are uniquely placed to bring on the apocalypse.

我们是引发世界末日的不二之选。

And we're uniquely placed to save ourselves, too.

但我们也是 拯救我们自己的不二之选。

If we could accept that as a species,

如果我们全人类都认同这一点，

Homo sapiens needs to evolve further.

那么人类就需要再进一步。

And that's what gives me hope,

这就是为什么我心存希望，

because we have the means to evolve further.

因为我们有再进一步的方式。

And that's AI.

那就是 AI（人工智能）。

Now look, I don't mean the geeks will inherit the earth.

我的意思不是地球就交给极客了。

I'm sorry, geeks. You won't.

不好意思，极客们。你们不会的。

(Laughter)

（笑声）

I don’t really want to talk about narrow- goal artificial intelligence at all.

我完全不想讨论那些 功能有限的人工智能。

That term of John McCarthy’s, “artificial intelligence,”

约翰·麦卡锡（John McCarthy） 提出的“人工智能”一词，

is it any use to us now?

对如今的我们有什么用吗？

I'd rather call it alternative intelligence.

我更愿意称之为“替代智能” （alternative intelligence）。

And I think humankind is in need of some alternative intelligence.

我觉得人类确实需要一些替代智能。

In 1965, Jack Good talked about AI as our last invention.

1965 年，杰克·古德（Jack Good） 将人工智能评价为我们最后的发明。

He meant superintelligence,

他指的是“超智能”，

the kind of thing that worries Bill Gates and Elon Musk.

让比尔·盖茨和埃隆·马斯克 提心吊胆的东西。

You know, the "Terminator" scenario.

就像《终结者》中的场景。

The final us and them.

最后的我们和它们。

But I think that's all to do with our doomster mindset.

但是我认为这都是 我们杞人忧天的思维导致的。

We don't have to vote for the apocalypse.

世界末日的到来由不得我们决定。

Jack Good worked at Bletchley Park with Alan Turing during World War II,

二战时，杰克·古德和艾伦·图灵 就职于布莱切利园，

building the early computing machinery that would crack the Nazi Enigma code.

搭建早期的计算机器， 破解纳粹的恩尼格玛密码。

Now after the war, Turing, wrestling with the problems

战后，图灵试图做出一台

of a stored, programmed computer

能存储、能编程的计算机，

had a bigger dream on his mind.

他的脑海中浮现出了 一个更宏伟的目标。

And in 1950, Alan Turing published a paper

1950 年，艾伦·图灵 发表了一篇论文，

called “Computing Machinery and Intelligence.”

题为《计算机器与智能》。

And in there, there's a chapter that's titled "Lady Lovelace's Objection"

文中有一个章节 题为《洛芙莱斯夫人的异议》，

where Turing time-travels back 100 years

于此，图灵穿越回了 100 年前，

to have a conversation with that long-dead genius,

和一位早已作古的天才进行了对话， 她就是阿达·洛芙莱斯

Ada Lovelace, the first person to write mathematical programs for the computer

（Ada Lovelace）—— 首位为计算机编写数学程序的人，

not yet built by her friend Charles Babbage.

甚至早于她的朋友 查尔斯·巴贝奇（Charles Babbage）。

Now Ada wrote that as well as doing awesome stuff with numbers,

阿达编写着程序， 也在用数字做一些奇妙的事情，

the computer would, if correctly programmed,

如果编写正确，计算机将

be able to write novels and compose music.

可以写小说和作曲。

That is a pretty big insight in 1843.

这在 1843 年可是远见卓识。

"But," said Ada, "The computer should never have any pretensions

“但是，”阿达说道， “计算机不应该有任何

to originate anything."

创造发明的企图。”

She meant, think creatively.

她的意思是创造性思维。

Well, Ada's father was Lord Byron, England's most famous poet,

阿达的父亲是拜伦勋爵， 英国最著名的诗人，

and England is the land of Shakespeare.

英国是莎士比亚的天下。

More poets.

还有更多的诗人。

And Ada had seen Charles Babbage's kit all over the floor,

阿达看到查尔斯·巴贝奇的装备 散落一地，

and she wasn’t having some steampunk, coal-fired nuts, bolts, bezels, levers,

但她也没有让蒸汽朋克、 烧煤的螺母、螺栓、凹槽、杠杆、

gears, cogs and chains, crank-handled machine writing poetry.

齿轮、链条、曲柄机器写诗。

"Well," said Alan Turing, "Was Lady Lovelace, correct?

“那么，”艾伦·图灵说道， “洛芙莱斯夫人说的对吗？”

Could a computer ever be said to originate anything?

计算机可以创造出什么东西吗？

And what would be the difference between computing intelligence

计算智能和人类智能有什么区别呢？

and human intelligence?"

Well, I'll tell you one difference, and it's optimistic.

我可以告诉你一个区别， 而且答案很乐观。

Computing power uses binary,

计算机能力使用二进制，

but computing intelligence is nonbinary.

而计算智能是非二进制的。

It's humans who are obsessed with false binaries.

只有人类才沉迷于 这虚假的二元设定。

Male, female. Masculine, feminine.

男性、女性。阳性、阴性。

Black, white. Human, non-human.

黑、白。人类、非人类。

Us, them.

我们、它们。

AI has no skin color.

AI 没有肤色。

AI has no race, no gender, no faith in a sky God.

AI 没有种族，没有性别， 不崇拜什么天神。

AI is not interested in men being superior to women,

AI 对男性优等、女性劣等，

in white folks being smarter than people of color.

白人聪明、有色人种愚蠢 没有兴趣。

Straight, gay, gay, trans are not separating categories for AI.

异性恋、同性恋、跨性别， 这些对 AI 来说没有什么区别。

AI does not distinguish between success and failure

AI 不会根据金条、 游艇、法拉利

by gold bars, yachts and Ferraris.

定义成功和失败。

AI is not motivated by fame and fortune.

AI 不会受到名利的驱使。

If we develop alternative intelligence, it will be Buddhist in its non-needs.

如果我们有了替代智能， 它会是一个无欲无求的佛教徒。

(Applause)

（掌声）

Now I am aware that the algorithms ubiquitous in everyday life

我发现我们日常生活中 随处可见的算法

are racist, sexist, gendered, trivializing,

都是种族歧视者、性别歧视者， 搞性别对立、蔑视他人、

stoke division, amplify bias.

鼓动分裂、扩大偏见。

But what is this teaching us about ourselves?

这反映了我们自身的什么特质呢？

AI is a tool.

AI 只是一个工具。

We are the ones who are using the tool.

我们才是这个工具的使用者。

Hatred and contempt, money and power

仇恨和鄙视，金钱和权力，

are human agendas, not AI agendas.

都是人类所追求的， 不是 AI 所追求的。

We've been forced to recognize the paucity,

我们被迫看清了 数据集的贫乏和不足。

the inadequacy of our data sets.

And humans are trained on data sets too.

人类也是由数据集训练而来的。

We've had to recognized the unacknowledged ideologies

我们必须遵从那些习以为常、

that we live by every day.

约定俗成的箴言。

Rationality, neutrality, logic, objective decision-making.

做出理性的、中立的、 有逻辑的、客观的决定。

What can we say about any of that

当我们看到小小的屏幕

when we see what we are reflected back to us

倒映出我们自己的模样时，

in the small screen?

我们还有什么颜面 对此振振有词呢？

And it's not a pretty sight.

这场面可不太好看。

AI is not yet self-aware.

AI 还没有自己的意识。

But we are becoming more self-aware as we work with AI

但是与 AI 共事越来越久， 我们也越来越明白，

and we realize that Homo sapiens is no longer fit for purpose.

我们发现人类不再是 成就大业的正确选择。

We need a reboot.

我们得重启。

So what are we going to choose?

我们该选择什么呢？

Apocalypse or an alternative?

世界末日还是别的选择？

I believe that humans have a strong future as a hybrid species

我觉得人类以杂交物种的形式 会有一个光明的未来，

as we start to merge with the biotechnology we're creating,

我们正在与自主研发的 生物科技相融合，

whether that's nanobots in the bloodstream,

无论是在我们的血管里 监测生命系统的纳米机器人、

monitoring our vital systems,

whether it's genetic editing,

基因编辑、

whether it's 3D printing of bespoke body parts,

3D 打印定制的身体部位，

whether it’s neural implants that will connect us directly to the web

还是能将我们直接接入网络 或相互连接的神经植入，

and to one another,

insourcing information, enhancing our cognitive capacities.

收集信息，提高我们的认知能力。

And if we manage to upload consciousness,

如果我们可以上传意识，

I think that the shift from the transhuman to the posthuman world

我觉得从超人类到后人类世界的

will seem natural, an evolutionary necessity.

过渡会更加自然， 是进化的必然结果。

Why do I say that?

为什么我会这么说？

I say that because for millennia,

我这么说是因为自古以来，

all human beings have been obsessed with the big question,

所有人都在纠结一个大问题——

the absurdity of death.

死亡的荒谬。

We asked, "Do we have souls?"

我们会问：“我们有灵魂吗？”

We watched the spirit wait to leave the body.

我们见证了 精神即将离开身体。

We created the world's first disruptive startup, the afterlife.

我们创立了世界第一家 颠覆性初创企业——来世。

(Laughter)

（笑声）

Now a multinational company,

现在它已经是一家跨国公司，

with a vast VR real estate portfolio.

有着大量的 VR （虚拟现实） 地产。

A mansion in the sky,

天上的一栋楼，

sir?

先生？

Our earliest extant written narrative, The Epic of Gilgamesh,

现存最古老的文字记述 《吉尔伽美什史诗》

is a journey to discover if there is life after death.

记录了探索 死后是否有来生的征程。

And what is life after death?

来世是什么？

It is the extension of the self beyond biological limits.

是超越生物极限， 自我的延续。

Now I’m a writer, and I wonder, have we been telling the story backwards?

我是一名作家，我想， 我们是不是把故事反着讲了？

Did we know we would always get here,

我们真的能到达彼岸，

capable of creating the kind of superintelligence

创造出我们认为创造了我们自己的

that we said created us?

那种超智能吗？

We're told were made in God's image.

有人说我们是按照上帝的模子 被创造出来的。

God is immortal. God is not a biological entity.

上帝是永生的。 上帝不是生物体。

Since the 17th century, the Enlightenment,

自从 17 世纪启蒙运动以来，

science and religion have parted company.

科学和宗教就分道扬镳了。

And science said, all that God thinking, the afterlife stuff,

赛先生说，这些仿照上帝、 说什么来世的东西，

it's folly, It's ignorance, it's superstition.

都是愚昧无知的，是迷信。

Suppose it was intuition.

假设这就是直觉。

Suppose it was the only way we could talk about what we knew,

假设这就是我们谈论 已知事物的唯一方式，

a fundamental, deep truth

我们相信的是 一个基本的、深刻的事实——

that this is not the last word.

我们的身体不是终点。

This is not the end of the story.

我们的身体不是故事的结局。

That we are not time-bound creatures caught in our bodies.

我们不是受困于肉身、 受限于时间的生物。

That there is further to go.

所以我们还有很长的路要走。

I'm fascinated that computing, science and religion,

我对计算、科学 和宗教很感兴趣，

like parallel lines that do meet in space,

比如空间中会相交的平行线，

are now asking the same question:

我还是想问这个问题：

Is consciousness obliged to materiality?

意识会受制于物质吗？

Now ...

我接受机器智能

I accept that machine intelligence

will challenge human intelligence.

会挑战人类智能。

But the mythos of the world is built around a group of stories

但是世界上的传说 都围绕着一些故事，

that showcase an encounter between a human and a nonhuman entity.

它们讲述着人与非人之间的交集。

Think of Jacob wrestling the angel.

比如与天使摔跤的雅各布。

Think of Prometheus bringing fire down from the gods.

比如盗取神火的普罗米修斯。

In these encounters, both parties are changed,

在这些故事中， 双方都发生了变化，

not always for the better.

但未必是向好的变化。

But it generally works out.

但是一般都解决了。

We've been thinking about this stuff forever.

我们永远在思考这个问题。

It's time that we created it.

是时候轮到我们来创造它了。

And we could have some fun stuff too.

我们也可以做点好玩的东西。

Who wants their own AI angel?

谁想要一个专属 AI 天使？

Me.

我想要。

There's a message in a bottle about this 200 years ago.

早在 200 年前就已经有人 送出了这个“漂流瓶”。

When Ada Lovelace was busy getting born,

阿达·洛芙莱斯 还在忙着出世的时候，

her father, Lord Byron, was on holiday on Lake Geneva

她的父亲拜伦勋爵 在日内瓦湖上度假，

with his friend, the poet Percy Shelley,

同行的是他的朋友，诗人 珀西·雪莱（Percy Shelly）

and Shelley's wife, Mary Shelley.

和雪莱的太太玛丽·雪莱 （Mary Shelley）。

On a wet weekend with no internet

在这个潮湿、没有网络的周末，

Byron said --

拜伦说：

(Laughter)

（笑声）

"Let's write horror stories."

“我们来写恐怖故事吧。”

You know what happened.

你已经知道了后面的故事。

Out of that came the world's most famous monster, Frankenstein.

由此诞生了世界上 最著名的怪物——弗兰肯斯坦。

This is 1816, the start of the Industrial Revolution.

这还是在 1816 年， 工业革命刚开始的时候，

Mary Shelley is just 19 years old.

玛丽·雪莱才 19 岁。

In that novel, there is an alternative intelligence

在这本小说里， 有一个替代智能，

made out of the body parts from the graveyard and electricity.

由墓地里的肢体和电力构成。

An astonishing vision

这想象力太惊人了，

because electricity was not in any practical use at all

因为当时电力还没有投入实际使用，

and was hardly understood as a force.

人们也很难将其联想成一股力量。

You know what happens. The monster is not named. Not educated.

你知道之后发生了什么。 这个怪物没有名字，没读过书，

Is outcast by his panicky creator, Victor Frankenstein.

被他那惊慌失措的创造者

维克托·弗兰肯斯坦 （Victor Frankenstein）赶走。

And the whole thing ends in a chase across the Arctic ice

整个故事的结局是 一场北极冰川上的追逐，

towards a Götterdämmerung of death and destruction.

迈向死亡和毁灭的同归于尽。

The death wish that human beings are so drawn to,

人类心心念念地追求死亡，

perhaps because it's easier to give up than to carry on.

可能是因为放弃比坚持更容易。

Well, we're the first generation

我们是第一代能够

who can read Mary Shelley's novel in the right way,

正确解读玛丽·雪莱小说的人，

as a flare flung across time,

如同跨越时空的隔阂 闪烁的一束光，

because we too could create an alternative intelligence,

因为我们也能创造出替代智能，

not out of the body parts from the graveyard using electricity,

但不是通过电力和坟地里的肢体，

but out of zeros and ones of code.

而是通过代码中的 0 和 1。

And how is this going to end? Utopia or dystopia?

怎么收尾呢？ 会是乌托邦还是反乌托邦？

It's up to us.

由我们自己决定。

Endings are not set in stone.

结局不是定死的。

We change the story because we are the story.

我们能改变故事的走向， 因为我们就是故事本身。

Now, Marvin Minsky called alternative intelligence

马文·明斯基（Marvin Minsky） 将替代智能

our "mind children."

称为我们“思想的孩子”。

Could we as proud parents accept

我们能成为一群自豪的父母，

that the new generation that we will create

接受我们创造的下一代

will be smarter than we are?

比我们自己更聪明吗？

And could we accept that the new generation we create

我们能接受我们创造的下一代

need not be on a substrate made of meat?

不用由肉身承载吗？

Thank you.

谢谢。

(Applause)

（掌声）

Thank you.

谢谢。

Thank you very much. Thank you.

非常感谢。谢谢。

Thank you.

谢谢。

Helen Walters: Jeanette, stay right there.

海伦·沃尔特斯（Helen Walters）： 珍妮特，站住。

I have some questions.

我有几个问题。

Jeanette Winterson: I know you want your lunch. Me too.

珍妮特·温特森（Jeanette Winterson）： 我知道你们急着去吃饭。我也是。

(Laughter)

（笑声）

HW: No. Everybody, stop.

沃尔特斯：没有。大家停一停。

OK. That was amazing. Thank you.

太棒了。谢谢。

What would you say our odds were of survival?

你觉得我们能活下来的几率如何？

JW: Look --

沃尔特斯：你看……

(Laughter)

（笑声）

I'm an optimist.

我是个乐观主义者。

I’m a glass-half-full girl.

我看待事物比较乐观。

So I know that we’re running out of time,

所以我知道我们要没时间了，

time is the most precious resource we have,

而时间是我们拥有的 最宝贵的资源，

and there isn't much of it.

但是没剩多少了。

If we get this right soon, it can really work.

如果我们做成了，那还有救。

If we get it wrong, will be fighting each other with sticks and stones

如果没做成， 我们就得拿着棍棒、石头，

for scraps of food and water on an overheated planet

在这过热的星球上， 在这独裁世界的残骸中，

in the ruins of dictator-world.

为一点点残羹冷炙大打出手。

But --

但是……

(Laughter)

（笑声）

OK. But we could get it right.

好。但是我们能做到。

That’s why I feel we’ve arrived at this moment before,

这就是为什么我感觉 这一幕似曾相识，

and it might disappear back into space-time.

它也有可能会随风而去。

Then we'll have to wait billions of years to get here again, which is so dull.

然后我们得再花上几亿年 回到这里，太无趣了。

So let's not fuck it up.

所以还是不要搞砸了。

(Laughter)

（笑声）

(Applause)

（掌声）

HW: I've got another question.

沃尔特斯：我还有一个问题。

I just wanted to have a moment of eye to eye.

我太同意了。

Don't fuck it up. Don't fuck it up. OK.

别搞砸了。别搞砸了。好的。

JW: That’s the message. The whole TED Talk is: “Don’t fuck it up.”

温特森：我要传达的就是这一点。

整个 TED Talk 的主题 就是：别搞砸了。

HW: But wait, I have another question.

沃尔特斯：等等，我还有个问题。

JW: I could have saved 12 minutes, 55 seconds.

温特森：我本来可以 省下 12 分钟 55 秒。

HW: Yeah, well, I'll just be the title that we put online.

沃尔特斯：嗯，那我们 网上的标题就这么写。

Jeanette Winterson: “Don’t fuck it up.”

《珍妮特·温特森：别搞砸了》。

OK. I want to talk about love.

好。我想谈一谈关于爱的话题。

So in your memoir, which everybody should read,

在你的回忆录里， 推荐大家都去读一读，

it is called “Why Be Happy When You Can Be Normal?”

回忆录题为 《我要快乐，不必正常》。

The very end of that book is about --

书的最后说的是……

it’s a good title -- t’s about love.

题目不错，说的是爱。

And you write, "Love, the difficult word.

你写道：“爱， 这个让人搞不懂的词语。

Where everything starts, where we always return.

万物的开始，我们的归宿。

Love. Love's lack. The possibility of love."

爱。爱没有那么多。 爱的可能。”

Now I don't want to bastardize Ada Lovelace.

我不是在贬低阿达·洛芙莱斯。

She was all about originating.

她谈论的是发明创造。

But what about love?

那么爱呢？

What about alternative intelligence and love?

替代智能和爱呢？

JW: We'll teach it.

温特森：我们会教它的。

HW: We’ll teach it?

沃尔特斯：我们会教它？

JW: Yeah. And listen, any of you who ever fell in love with your teddy bear,

温特森：没错。听好了，任何一个 和你家泰迪熊坠入爱河的人，

which is all of you, know what it's like

也就是在座的每个人，

to have an intense relationship with a nonbiological lifeform.

都知道对非生物生命体 产生强烈情感的感觉。

(Laughter)

（笑声）

HW: Jeanette Winterson, I love you.

沃尔特斯： 珍妮特·温特森，我爱你。

JW: Thank you. HW: Thank you so much. Thank you.

温特森：谢谢。 沃尔特斯：非常感谢。谢谢你。