Is Humanity Smart Enough to Survive Itself? | Jeanette Winterson | TED

譯者: C T 審譯者: Shelley Tsang 曾雯海

Here's what gives me hope for humanity.

我覺得人類還有希望。 [珍妮特•溫特森]

I believe that we can change our human nature for the better.

我相信我們可以改變人性以求更佳。 [2022年4月 溫哥華]

This chance is unique.

機會獨一無二。 [TED錄製]

It's where we stand in history right now.

就是歷史長流中的此刻。

No other generation has stood here before us.

此前，從沒有那個時代可以走到今天。

Homo sapiens has been around for about 300,000 years.

智人至今已經約三十萬年了。

Other humanoid life forms have come and gone.

其他類人的生物型態時隱時現。

We find their traces.

我們發現他們的蹤跡。

We search for their stories.

我們搜尋他們。

But we are the success story.

但只有我們是成功的。

We've survived natural disasters, famines, floods, earthquakes, plagues,

我們生存至今， 即使有自然災害、飢荒、洪水、地震、瘟疫，

woolly mammoths, mess-ups of our own making.

毛茸茸的猛瑪象因為我們而滅絕。

We're smart, no question.

我們很聰明，不容置疑。

The question is: Are we smart enough to survive how smart we are?

問題是：我們是否足夠聰明以倖存於聰明反被聰明誤呢?

It's not looking so good just now, is it?

現階段不太看好，對吧？

(Laughter)

(笑聲)

We stand facing the possibility of global conflict.

我們有面對全球衝突的可能。

If that happens,

如果發生了，

it will be our Third World War

將會是第三次世界大戰。

in not much more than 100 years.

還不到一百年的時間。

If Putin's violence stops today, the problem doesn't go away.

即使普丁的暴力行為現在停止， 問題依然存在。

As across the globe

縱觀全球，

dictatorism threatens democracy.

獨裁威脅民主。

I wonder whether as a species

我懷疑作為一個物種，

we can survive any of this,

我們是否可以倖存於這些，

even if those threats disappear.

即便威脅消失。

Those living inside the snow globe of their magical thinking

氣候崩潰的事實並不會遠離

will not be insulated against the facts of climate breakdown.

那些靠魔力信念生活在雪花球的人。

And yet, still, we go on heating up the planet.

然而，我們依然繼續加熱這個星球。

Still we go on polluting the earth.

我們繼續汙染這個地球。

Still we despoil

我們繼續洗劫

our precious natural resources.

珍貴的自然資源。

250 years ago, we kick-started the Industrial Revolution.

兩百五十年前，工業革命開始。

The machine age.

機械時代。

It's when we first hear the buzzwords of the modern moment.

我們開始聽到現代時髦的字眼。

Disruption, acceleration.

顛覆、加速。

That's Karl Marx, actually.

其實是卡爾•馬克思說的。

Acceleration of production,

加速生產、工廠，

the factory system, acceleration of transport,

加速運輸、鐵路。

the coming of the railways.

No need for ships to wait for the wind.

無需船隻等待風力。

Coal-fired, steam-powered.

媒燃料、蒸汽動力。

Acceleration of information.

加速資訊。

The global village.

地球村。

And it's when we start digging fossil fuels out of the ground

那時，我們開始挖掘化石燃料，

in planet-changing quantities,

數量足以導致星球變化；

when we start pushing carbon dioxide into the atmosphere.

也排放二氧化碳到大氣層。

In a salami slice of space-time,

以時空蠶食漸進的方式，

human beings have changed the way that we live on the planet forever.

人類已經永久改變在這個星球的生存方式。

We've moved out of the agricultural economies

我們離開進化傳承的農業經濟。

of our evolutionary inheritance

into the industrial economies and beyond of where we are now.

轉變為工業經濟以及目前發展。

There's no one else for us to turn to.

沒有其他可以外援。

There's no one else for us to blame.

沒有其他可以推諉。

There is no us and them.

沒有我們和他們。

There's only us.

只有我們。

So will we continue to be the success story of the known universe,

我們將會繼續在這個已知宇宙成功下去，

or are we writing our own obituary?

還是寫自己的訃聞 –

The suicide species?

自殺的物種？

Now I was raised in an evangelical household.

我成長於基督教福音派的家庭。

We lived in end time.

我們活在末世。

We were waiting for things to get so bad

我們等待情況很惡劣的時候，

that Jesus would come back and save us.

耶穌基督會回來拯救我們。

The apocalypse.

世界末日。

It's what the prepper communities are, well, prepping for.

末日準備者們為這些做準備。

And it's why super rich white guys are buying up tracts of land,

富有的白人正在買下大片土地。

hoping that they can live inside

希望可以藏在裡面，

a kind of wi-fi-enabled Noah's Ark.

一個好像是有Wi-Fi的諾亞方舟。

(Laughter)

(笑聲)

Well, we can have the end time if we want it.

如果我們想要，末世自然會出現。

We know those stories from our religions, our sci-fi, our movies.

我們都知道那些宗教故事、科幻類的、電影等等。

We are uniquely placed to bring on the apocalypse.

我們所處的獨特位置可以引發世界末日。

And we're uniquely placed to save ourselves, too.

我們所處的獨特位置也可以自我拯救。

If we could accept that as a species,

如果接受作為一個物種，

Homo sapiens needs to evolve further.

智人需要進一步進化。

And that's what gives me hope,

這令我所有希望，

because we have the means to evolve further.

因為我們有進一步進化的工具。

And that's AI.

就是人工智慧。

Now look, I don't mean the geeks will inherit the earth.

當然，我並不是說機客會統治地球。

I'm sorry, geeks. You won't.

別介意，機客們。

(Laughter)

(笑聲)

I don’t really want to talk about narrow- goal artificial intelligence at all.

狹義的人工智慧並不是我想討論的。

That term of John McCarthy’s, “artificial intelligence,”

約翰•麥卡錫提出的“人工智慧”

is it any use to us now?

還合時宜嗎？

I'd rather call it alternative intelligence.

我覺得應該叫做另類智慧。

And I think humankind is in need of some alternative intelligence.

我認為人類確實需要另類智慧。

In 1965, Jack Good talked about AI as our last invention.

1965年，傑克•古德說人工智慧是我們最後的發明。

He meant superintelligence,

他所指的是超智慧，

the kind of thing that worries Bill Gates and Elon Musk.

也是令比爾•蓋茲和伊隆•馬斯克擔憂的東西。

You know, the "Terminator" scenario.

你們知道，“終結者”的場景。

The final us and them.

最終是我們和它們。

But I think that's all to do with our doomster mindset.

我想這都和 末日預言人的思維有關。

We don't have to vote for the apocalypse.

我們並不是要投票支持世界末日。

Jack Good worked at Bletchley Park with Alan Turing during World War II,

傑克•古德和艾倫•圖靈在 二戰時期在布萊切利園共事，

building the early computing machinery that would crack the Nazi Enigma code.

建立了早期的計算機並破解了納粹的恩格碼。

Now after the war, Turing, wrestling with the problems

戰後，圖靈繼續攻克難關，

of a stored, programmed computer

研究可儲存和編程的電腦。

had a bigger dream on his mind.

他腦海中有個宏偉的夢想。

And in 1950, Alan Turing published a paper

1950年，艾倫•圖靈發表了

called “Computing Machinery and Intelligence.”

名為《計算機器和智慧》的論文。

And in there, there's a chapter that's titled "Lady Lovelace's Objection"

其中一章叫做 “勒芙蕾絲夫人的異議”。

where Turing time-travels back 100 years

講述圖靈時空穿越到一百年前，

to have a conversation with that long-dead genius,

和一位仙逝已久的天才的對話。

Ada Lovelace, the first person to write mathematical programs for the computer

那就是愛達•勒芙蕾絲， 第一個幫電腦寫數學程式的人。

而當時，她的朋友查爾斯•巴貝奇還沒有把電腦做好。

not yet built by her friend Charles Babbage.

Now Ada wrote that as well as doing awesome stuff with numbers,

愛達寫了和做了那些了不起的數字工作，

the computer would, if correctly programmed,

如果程式正確，

be able to write novels and compose music.

電腦應該可以寫小說和作曲。

That is a pretty big insight in 1843.

在1843年是非常深刻的見解。

"But," said Ada, "The computer should never have any pretensions

“但是，” 愛達說，

“電腦永遠不應該有任何發端的意圖。”

to originate anything."

She meant, think creatively.

她的意思是創造性思考。

Well, Ada's father was Lord Byron, England's most famous poet,

愛達的父親是拜倫勳爵，最出名的英國詩人。

and England is the land of Shakespeare.

而英國是莎士比亞的故鄉，

More poets.

更多的詩歌。

And Ada had seen Charles Babbage's kit all over the floor,

愛達曾經看見過查爾斯•巴貝奇的工具散落一地。

and she wasn’t having some steampunk, coal-fired nuts, bolts, bezels, levers,

而且她沒有蒸汽朋克、燃煤螺母、螺栓、擋板、槓桿、

gears, cogs and chains, crank-handled machine writing poetry.

齒輪、嵌齒輪和鏈條，曲柄機器去寫詩。

"Well," said Alan Turing, "Was Lady Lovelace, correct?

“那麼，” 艾倫•圖靈說，“勒芙蕾絲夫人說得對嗎？

Could a computer ever be said to originate anything?

電腦真的會創始一些東西嗎？

And what would be the difference between computing intelligence

電腦智慧和人類智慧的區別在哪裡？”

and human intelligence?"

Well, I'll tell you one difference, and it's optimistic.

我將會告訴你們分別在哪裡以及樂觀性。

Computing power uses binary,

電腦的運算是二進制，

but computing intelligence is nonbinary.

但電腦智慧並不是。

It's humans who are obsessed with false binaries.

人類很執著錯誤的二進制。

Male, female. Masculine, feminine.

男性、女性、陽性、陰性、

Black, white. Human, non-human.

黑色、白色、人類、非人類、

Us, them.

我們、它們。

AI has no skin color.

人工智慧並沒有膚色。

AI has no race, no gender, no faith in a sky God.

也沒有種族、性別、對於天上上帝的信仰。

AI is not interested in men being superior to women,

人工智慧並不感興趣男性是否比女性優越，

in white folks being smarter than people of color.

白人是否比有色人種聰明。

Straight, gay, gay, trans are not separating categories for AI.

異性戀、同性戀、跨性別對於人工智慧沒有分別。

AI does not distinguish between success and failure

人工智慧不會用金條、遊艇和法拉利 區分成功和失敗。

by gold bars, yachts and Ferraris.

AI is not motivated by fame and fortune.

人工智慧並不受名利的驅使。

If we develop alternative intelligence, it will be Buddhist in its non-needs.

如果我們發展另類智慧， 應該是無欲無求的佛教徒。

(Applause)

(掌聲)

Now I am aware that the algorithms ubiquitous in everyday life

現在我留意到無處不在的演算法

are racist, sexist, gendered, trivializing,

是關於種族、性別歧視、性別類型化、輕視、

stoke division, amplify bias.

煽動分歧、放大偏見。

But what is this teaching us about ourselves?

但我們可以學到甚麼呢？

AI is a tool.

人工智慧是工具。

We are the ones who are using the tool.

我們使用工具。

Hatred and contempt, money and power

憎恨和蔑視、金錢和權力

are human agendas, not AI agendas.

是人類的議程，不是人工智慧的。

We've been forced to recognize the paucity,

我們被迫要重整匱乏性，

the inadequacy of our data sets.

數據資料的不足夠。

And humans are trained on data sets too.

人類也有數據資料的培訓。

We've had to recognized the unacknowledged ideologies

我們不得不認識到日常生活中

that we live by every day.

未獲認可的意識形態。

Rationality, neutrality, logic, objective decision-making.

理性、中立、邏輯，客觀的決策，

What can we say about any of that

對於這些我們可以說甚麼呢？

when we see what we are reflected back to us

我們只是從那個小小的屏幕上看到自己的倒影。

in the small screen?

And it's not a pretty sight.

這個景象可不怎麼樣。

AI is not yet self-aware.

人工智慧還沒有自我意識。

But we are becoming more self-aware as we work with AI

但是在和人工智慧工作的時候， 我們的自我意識增加。

and we realize that Homo sapiens is no longer fit for purpose.

我們也意識到智人已經不再符合目的。

We need a reboot.

我們需要重啟。

So what are we going to choose?

那麼，要怎樣選擇？

Apocalypse or an alternative?

世界末日還是另類智慧？

I believe that humans have a strong future as a hybrid species

我相信作為混合物種，人類有強劲的未來，

as we start to merge with the biotechnology we're creating,

因為開始和我們創造的生物科技融合，

whether that's nanobots in the bloodstream,

血液中的納米機械人

monitoring our vital systems,

監察我們的維生指數，

whether it's genetic editing,

基因編輯，

whether it's 3D printing of bespoke body parts,

3D打印量身訂造身體部位，

whether it’s neural implants that will connect us directly to the web

神經植入從而直接聯結到網絡

and to one another,

和他人，

insourcing information, enhancing our cognitive capacities.

吸收信息，提升我們的認知能力。

And if we manage to upload consciousness,

如果我們可以上载意識，

I think that the shift from the transhuman to the posthuman world

我想從超人類到後人類世界的轉變

will seem natural, an evolutionary necessity.

應該會是一個自然的進化必需。

Why do I say that?

為甚麼我這麼說？

I say that because for millennia,

是為了千禧世代。

all human beings have been obsessed with the big question,

全人類一直都執著與一個重要的問題，

the absurdity of death.

死亡的荒謬。

We asked, "Do we have souls?"

我們問，“我們有靈魂嗎？”

We watched the spirit wait to leave the body.

我們看到靈魂等待離開軀殼。

We created the world's first disruptive startup, the afterlife.

我們創造的世界先是毀了開頭， 然後是往生的世界。

(Laughter)

(笑聲)

Now a multinational company,

現在跨國公司

with a vast VR real estate portfolio.

有大量的虛擬實境的房地資料。

A mansion in the sky,

要空中豪宅嗎，

sir?

先生？

Our earliest extant written narrative, The Epic of Gilgamesh,

最早的文字形式的文學作品 是吉尔伽美什史诗

is a journey to discover if there is life after death.

講述了探索死亡後生命是否存在的旅程。

And what is life after death?

還有過世之後的生活是怎樣？

It is the extension of the self beyond biological limits.

是自我生物極限的延伸。

Now I’m a writer, and I wonder, have we been telling the story backwards?

我是個作家，我質疑事情是不是反了？

Did we know we would always get here,

我們是否曾經明確我們可以到達，

capable of creating the kind of superintelligence

有能力創造一種超級智慧，

that we said created us?

我們認為這個超級智慧創造了我們？

We're told were made in God's image.

我們被告知自己是按照上帝樣子創造。

God is immortal. God is not a biological entity.

上帝是不朽的。上帝不是生物體。

Since the 17th century, the Enlightenment,

自從十九世紀啟蒙運動，

science and religion have parted company.

科學和宗教分開。

And science said, all that God thinking, the afterlife stuff,

科學認為，所有上帝的想法，往生的世界，

it's folly, It's ignorance, it's superstition.

是愚蠢、愚昧、迷信。

Suppose it was intuition.

設想這是直覺。

Suppose it was the only way we could talk about what we knew,

設想這是唯一的方法 讓我們可以談論我們所知，

a fundamental, deep truth

基本的深刻真相。

that this is not the last word.

這個並不是最後的說話。

This is not the end of the story.

這個並不是故事的結束。

That we are not time-bound creatures caught in our bodies.

我們並不是困在身體裡 有時限的生物。

That there is further to go.

還可以更進一步。

I'm fascinated that computing, science and religion,

我對電腦科學和宗教著迷

like parallel lines that do meet in space,

就好像兩條平行線在空間邂逅，

are now asking the same question:

提出同樣的問題：

Is consciousness obliged to materiality?

意識是否一定受限於物質？

Now ...

現在……

I accept that machine intelligence

我接受機械智慧

will challenge human intelligence.

將會挑戰人類智慧。

But the mythos of the world is built around a group of stories

關於這個世界的神話故事

that showcase an encounter between a human and a nonhuman entity.

都展現了人類和非人類的不期而遇。

Think of Jacob wrestling the angel.

雅各和天使摔跤。

Think of Prometheus bringing fire down from the gods.

普羅米修斯從神那裡盜火。

In these encounters, both parties are changed,

在這些不期而遇中，雙方都所有改變，

not always for the better.

不是總是為了更好。

But it generally works out.

但總體來說沒有問題。

We've been thinking about this stuff forever.

我們永遠都在思考這些。

It's time that we created it.

現在是創造的時候。

And we could have some fun stuff too.

可以做些有趣的東西。

Who wants their own AI angel?

誰想要屬於自己的人工智慧天使？

Me.

我。

There's a message in a bottle about this 200 years ago.

大概兩百年前，有個在瓶子裡的消息。

When Ada Lovelace was busy getting born,

當愛達•勒芙蕾絲急著出生的時候，

her father, Lord Byron, was on holiday on Lake Geneva

他的父親，拜倫勛爵在日內瓦湖渡假，

with his friend, the poet Percy Shelley,

和朋友一起，詩人珀西•雪萊，

and Shelley's wife, Mary Shelley.

還有雪萊的妻子瑪麗•雪萊。

On a wet weekend with no internet

在一個潮濕的周末，沒有網路。

Byron said --

拜倫說，

(Laughter)

(笑聲)

"Let's write horror stories."

“我們寫寫恐怖故事吧。”

You know what happened.

你們猜怎樣。

Out of that came the world's most famous monster, Frankenstein.

誕生了全世界最出名的怪物，弗蘭肯斯坦。

This is 1816, the start of the Industrial Revolution.

那是1816年，工業革命的開端。

Mary Shelley is just 19 years old.

瑪麗•雪萊當時十九歲。

In that novel, there is an alternative intelligence

小說裡的是另類智慧，

made out of the body parts from the graveyard and electricity.

由屍體和電線組成身體。

An astonishing vision

多麼驚人的遠見。

because electricity was not in any practical use at all

因為電力當時還完全沒有使用，

and was hardly understood as a force.

也很難被理解為一種力。

You know what happens. The monster is not named. Not educated.

你們都知道故事。 怪物沒有名字，沒受過教育。

Is outcast by his panicky creator, Victor Frankenstein.

被維多•弗蘭肯斯坦，驚慌失措的創造者拋棄。

And the whole thing ends in a chase across the Arctic ice

整個故事的結尾是在北極冰面的追逐，

towards a Götterdämmerung of death and destruction.

向著如諸神黃昏的死亡和毀滅。

The death wish that human beings are so drawn to,

人類被死亡願望的念頭如此吸引。

perhaps because it's easier to give up than to carry on.

也許是因為放棄比繼續更容易。

Well, we're the first generation

我們是第一代人

who can read Mary Shelley's novel in the right way,

可以正確的理解瑪麗•雪萊的小說

as a flare flung across time,

就像貫穿時間的火焰；

because we too could create an alternative intelligence,

因為我們也可以創造另類智慧。

not out of the body parts from the graveyard using electricity,

不是用屍體和電線做身體，

but out of zeros and ones of code.

而是用很多個零以及一套編碼。

And how is this going to end? Utopia or dystopia?

結局會是怎樣呢？烏托邦還是反烏托邦？

It's up to us.

這取決於我們。

Endings are not set in stone.

結局當然不是板上釘釘。

We change the story because we are the story.

我們改變事情因為我們就是事情。

Now, Marvin Minsky called alternative intelligence

馬文•閔斯基稱呼另類智慧為我們“思維子女”。

our "mind children."

Could we as proud parents accept

我們可否像驕傲的父母一樣接受，

that the new generation that we will create

我們創造的新一代，

will be smarter than we are?

會比我們更聰明嗎？

And could we accept that the new generation we create

我們可以接受 我們創造的新一代，

need not be on a substrate made of meat?

並不需要基於肉體嗎？

Thank you.

謝謝。

(Applause)

(掌聲) [問答環節即將開始]

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thank you very much. Thank you.

非常感謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Helen Walters: Jeanette, stay right there.

海倫•沃爾特斯：珍妮特，請留步。

I have some questions.

我有幾個問題。

Jeanette Winterson: I know you want your lunch. Me too.

珍妮特•溫特森：我知道你想吃午飯了。我也是。

(Laughter)

(笑聲)

HW: No. Everybody, stop.

海倫•沃爾特斯：請大家都留步。

OK. That was amazing. Thank you.

今天講的太棒了。謝謝。

What would you say our odds were of survival?

你覺得我們的生存賠率有多少？

JW: Look --

珍妮特•溫特森：喔 --

(Laughter)

(笑聲)

I'm an optimist.

我是樂觀主義者。

I’m a glass-half-full girl.

我是半杯水半滿的女孩子。

So I know that we’re running out of time,

時間剩得不多了，

time is the most precious resource we have,

時間是我們最寶貴的資源，

and there isn't much of it.

屈指可數。

If we get this right soon, it can really work.

如果我們很快做對了，可以有效果。

If we get it wrong, will be fighting each other with sticks and stones

如果我們做錯了，我們會互相傷害，

for scraps of food and water on an overheated planet

在獨裁世界的廢墟當中，

in the ruins of dictator-world.

爭奪過熱地球所剩的食物和水。

But --

但是--

(Laughter)

(笑聲)

OK. But we could get it right.

我們可以做對的選擇。

That’s why I feel we’ve arrived at this moment before,

這就是為甚麼我覺得 我們到了這個時刻，

and it might disappear back into space-time.

在它可能消失回到時空之前。

Then we'll have to wait billions of years to get here again, which is so dull.

然後，再等個幾百萬年才能重回當下，太笨啦。

So let's not fuck it up.

我們可別他媽的搞砸了。

(Laughter)

(笑聲)

(Applause)

(掌聲)

HW: I've got another question.

海倫•沃爾特斯：還有一個問題。

I just wanted to have a moment of eye to eye.

我先想表達我完全同意。

Don't fuck it up. Don't fuck it up. OK.

可別他媽的搞砸了。

JW: That’s the message. The whole TED Talk is: “Don’t fuck it up.”

珍妮特•溫特森：這就是要旨。 TED Talk的標題應該是： “可別他媽的搞砸了。”

HW: But wait, I have another question.

海倫•沃爾特斯：等等，還有一個問題。

JW: I could have saved 12 minutes, 55 seconds.

珍妮特•溫特森：我本來可以省下12分鐘55秒。

HW: Yeah, well, I'll just be the title that we put online.

海倫•沃爾特斯：我會像網上的標題那樣做。

Jeanette Winterson: “Don’t fuck it up.”

珍妮特•溫特森 “可別他媽的搞砸了。”

OK. I want to talk about love.

我想說說愛。

So in your memoir, which everybody should read,

你的自傳，每個人都應該看，

it is called “Why Be Happy When You Can Be Normal?”

叫做《正常就好，何必快樂？》

The very end of that book is about --

這本書最後是關於 --

it’s a good title -- t’s about love.

好的標題 -- 關於愛。

And you write, "Love, the difficult word.

你寫道，“愛，一個多麼艱難的字。

Where everything starts, where we always return.

所有事情開始的地方，我們總是回歸的地方。

Love. Love's lack. The possibility of love."

愛。愛是缺乏愛的可能性。”

Now I don't want to bastardize Ada Lovelace.

我現在並不是想 貶低愛達•勒芙蕾絲。

She was all about originating.

她所講的是關於創始。

But what about love?

那麼愛呢？

What about alternative intelligence and love?

另類智慧和愛會怎樣呢？

JW: We'll teach it.

珍妮特•溫特森：我們會教。

HW: We’ll teach it?

海倫•沃爾特斯：我們會教？

JW: Yeah. And listen, any of you who ever fell in love with your teddy bear,

珍妮特•溫特森：是的。 你們當中誰曾經愛上自己的泰德熊。

which is all of you, know what it's like

你們就會知道

to have an intense relationship with a nonbiological lifeform.

和非生物體有強烈關係的感覺。

(Laughter)

(笑聲)

HW: Jeanette Winterson, I love you.

海倫•沃爾特斯：珍妮特•溫特森，我愛你。

JW: Thank you. HW: Thank you so much. Thank you.

珍妮特•溫特森：謝謝。 海倫•沃爾特斯：非常感謝。謝謝。