Tzeporah Berman: The bad math of the fossil fuel industry | TED Countdown

翻译人员: 宁玥 沈 校对人员: Wilde Luo

Canada's great northern forests,

加拿大北部的森林，

they're the place of my heart.

是我的心之所属。

They hold 25 percent of the Earth's wetlands.

它们占地球25%的湿地，

And they're the nesting and breeding ground

也是北美大部分

of the majority of North America's songbirds.

鸣禽的筑巢和繁殖地。

They're the traditional territories of hundreds of Indigenous nations.

它们是数百个 土著民族的传统领地。

And my climate journey started here as a forest activist a long time ago.

我在很久以前，作为一名森林活动家， 在这里开始了我的气候之旅。

I was horrified that Canada's old-growth forests are being logged.

加拿大的原始森林被砍伐，让我无比震惊。

They're burning.

它们被大火燃烧。

They're being destroyed by beetle infestations.

它们被甲虫的侵扰所破坏。

But also because so much of the forest is under threat

另外，森林下面埋藏的东西

同样也使森林受到巨大威胁。

because of what lies under it.

Oil.

石油。

At the time,

当时，我认为加拿大减排失败

I thought that Canada's failure to reduce emissions

was because we had a government

是因为我们的政府

that just didn't believe in climate change.

不相信气候变化。

But then in 2015, we elected a new government.

但在2015年， 我们选出了一个新政府。

And Prime Minister Trudeau came to Paris

特鲁多总理来到巴黎，

and with his hand on his heart,

把手放在胸口，

he said, "Canada's back."

说：“加拿大重回绿色。”

And he went home to introduce some really good climate policy,

他回国后提出了一些非常好的气候政策，

carbon pricing.

其中包括碳定价。

And our emissions didn't go down.

但我们的碳排放量并没有减少。

And the government continued to green-light

政府继续为开发新油砂、管道

and even subsidize

以及使用水力压裂法开采天然气开绿灯，

new oil sands, pipelines and fracking.

甚至资助他们。

And that, for me, was the moment

这个时候，对我而言，

when I realized where one of the big problems lie.

我意识到了这里的 一个大问题出在哪里。

Our governments are regulating emissions

我们的政府监管碳排放，

but not the production of fossil fuels.

但没有监管化石燃料的生产。

You see, climate policy and agreements, they are complicated,

这么说吧，气候政策和协议是复杂的，

but what's simple

但简单的是，

is that the majority of emissions

今天滞留在我们大气中的

that are trapped in our atmosphere today,

大部分的碳排放，

well, they come from three products:

它们来自三种产品：

oil, gas and coal.

石油，天然气，和煤炭。

For decades, our countries have been negotiating targets.

几十年来，我们国家一直在商量减排目标。

But behind our backs, the fossil fuel industry has been growing production

但在我们背后，化石燃料行业 一直在增加产量，

and locking in further emissions.

并打算进一步增加排放。

I started reaching out to climate policy experts from around the world

我开始接触世界各地的气候政策专家，

because I wanted to understand what frameworks exist to negotiate

因为我想了解，存在哪些框架， 可以让我们用来谈判

who gets to produce what and how much;

谁可以生产什么以及生产多少；

what policies help governments regulate,

哪些政策有助于政府监管

constrain the production side of fossil fuels.

和限制化石燃料的生产。

I found out that very few do.

我发现很少有人这样做。

I will never forget the day

我永远不会忘记那一天，

that I sat with the Paris Agreement

我埋头阅读“巴黎协定”

and I searched for the words

搜索着一些关键词：

fossil fuels,

化石燃料、

oil, gas, coal.

石油、天然气、煤炭。

They didn't appear.

他们没有出现。

Not even once in the world's climate agreement.

在我们的世界气候协议中 连一次都没有出现。

The fossil fuel industry has been successful in making itself invisible.

化石燃料工业成功地让自己隐形了。

I started reaching out and met with, for several years,

几年来，我开始接触

the CEOs of major oil companies

管理大型石油公司的首席执行官，

because I wanted to understand

因为我想知道

what these CEOs see when they read the science.

这些首席执行官们 在阅读科学时看到了什么。

How can they justify expanding oil and gas at this moment in our history?

他们怎么能在我们历史上的这个时刻 为扩张开采石油和天然气辩护呢?

And also because I believe that there are good people everywhere.

也因为我相信到处都有好人。

There are good people stuck in some bad systems.

有些好人只是被困在一些糟糕的系统里。

What I learned is that they know.

我了解到的是，他们的确知道。

They know that we're going to have to wind down fossil fuel production.

他们知道我们将不得不减少 化石燃料的生产。

But they are all holding out hope

但他们都抱着希望，

that they will be the last barrel sold.

希望自己的公司能卖出最后一桶油。

Or that unproven technologies, like carbon capture and storage,

或者希望未经验证的技术，

如碳捕获和存储， 将使他们继续增加产量。

will allow them to continue to increase production.

The problem is the math just doesn't add up.

问题是那些计算并不合理。

We are currently on track today

我们想要使全球气温升高 保持在 1.5 摄氏度以下，

to produce 120 percent more fossil fuels

并相应地计算出了 化石燃料生产的目标值。

in the next decade

但按照目前的情况，

than the world should burn

我们在未来十年内预计生产的 化石燃料会比目标值多120%。

if we want to stay below 1.5 degrees Celsius.

In fact, even if we phased out coal overnight,

事实上，即使我们在一夜之间淘汰煤炭，

oil and gas in existing projects

现有的石油和天然气项目

would take us beyond 1.5 degrees.

仍会让我们的温度升高超过1.5度。

For decades, climate policy has been designed on a theory

几十年来，气候政策的设计 一直基于这样一个理论:

that we are going to reduce demand,

就是我们将减少碳排放的需求，

that the price of carbon is going to go up,

碳价格将上涨，

and the markets turbocharged by alternatives --

而现在比化石燃料

wind and solar, now cheaper than fossil fuels --

更便宜的风能和太阳能 将被推动，

well, the markets are going to constrain supply.

市场就会限制碳排放的供应。

The problem is it's not happening.

问题是它没有发生。

Not fast enough to keep us safe.

发生得不够快，无法保证我们的安全。

Why?

为什么？

Because the markets today are distorted,

因为今天的市场被扭曲了，

they're distorted by tax breaks and fossil-fuel subsidies,

它们被税收减免和化石燃料补贴扭曲了，

but also because of the power of the fossil fuel industry.

也被化石燃料行业所影响。

The influence of the industry, who no longer deny climate change.

当下化石燃料行业 不再否认气候变化，

But they have moved from denial to delusion:

但它们将否认变成了妄想：

that technologies that are not yet proven at scale,

那些尚未被大规模验证、

that are not yet cost-competitive -- are going to fix it.

成本竞争力还不强的技术 将在未来

In the future.

解决气候恶化。

I've spent 30 years running environmental campaigns,

我花了30年的时间开展环境运动，

I've advised multiple governments on climate policy,

为多个政府提供气候政策方面的建议；

I’ve been arrested on the blockades,

我曾因尝试封锁燃料运输而被捕，

and I've negotiated in the boardrooms

我也曾在一些世界上

of some of the largest banks and corporations in the world.

最大的银行和公司的 会议室里谈判过。

And when I figured out that we don't have a framework

所以当我发现我们

for constraining the production of fossil fuels,

没有一个框架来限制 化石燃料生产时，

I thought I was crazy.

我以为我疯了；

And so did some of my colleagues.

我的一些同事也是这么想的。

But here's the thing.

但这也是问题所在。

Today we are granting permits,

我们现如今正在批准许可，

we are spending trillions of dollars

正在花数万亿美元

to increase the production of products

来增加那些我们打算 逐步脱钩的产品的产量。

that we say we're transitioning off of.

It's not a transition if we're still growing the problem.

如果问题还在扩大， 那它就不算真正意义上脱钩。

We have more than enough fossil fuels in existing installations,

即使我们今天停止扩张

开采石油、天然气和煤炭，

even if we stopped expansion today,

of oil, gas and coal in existing projects to use

并同时谨慎地逐步减少使用它们，

while we carefully manage a phasedown.

我们现有设施中的化石燃料仍然绰绰有余。

And so the world is spending its intellectual,

因此，世界正在花费它的脑力、

its financial, its technical capital

财力和技术资本，

to dig up stuff that we know we can't burn,

去挖掘那些我们都知道 不应该燃烧的东西，

and if we do, it will burn us.

而且如果燃烧它们， 会害了我们。

So what do we do?

所以我们应该怎么做？

A year ago, a group of academics, advocates,

一年前，一群学者、倡导人士、 科学家和前外交官共同撰写了

scientists and former diplomats came together to create

《化石燃料不扩散条约倡议》 （FFNPT）

the Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty Initiative

to create the missing framework

以创建缺失的框架。

so countries can negotiate a wind down of fossil fuels

这样一来，国家之间就可以

in a way that is fair,

用一种公平公正的方式，

in a way that is equitable.

协商减少化石燃料的使用。

Shockingly, one of the things we found out

但令人震惊的是，我们发现

is that we don't have accounting or transparency right now

在关于谁在生产什么 和生产多少上，

on who's producing what and how much.

各国的信息既不公开也不透明。

So work is now underway to create a global registry

因此，我们目前正在建立一个

of fossil fuel production and reserves.

全球化石燃料生产和储备的登记处。

We are also at work

我们也在努力制定

creating the principles of equity that have to underlie a treaty

必须作为条约基础的公平原则，

because the challenges to stop the expansion of fossil fuels

因为在某些国家阻止化石燃料开采

in some countries

将比在另一些国家难得多。

are going to be so different than in other countries.

There are countries today

如今，像厄瓜多尔

in the developing world, like Ecuador,

这样的发展中国家，

that are drilling for new oil in the heart of the Amazon

在亚马逊丛林中心 开采新石油，

just to feed their debt.

只为了偿还债务。

So no,

所以，不，

we cannot rely just on the markets

我们不能仅仅

to constrain fossil fuel production.

依靠市场来限制化石燃料的生产。

If we do, it will be an unmanaged decline instead of a managed decline,

如果我们这样做，燃料产量的下降 将变得非常不可控，

and more people will suffer.

从而使更多人受到牵连和损失。

We need financial leadership at this moment.

此时此刻，我们需要有人能够领导财政。

We need divestment at this moment.

我们现在需要撤资。

But we can’t let governments off the hook.

但我们不能让政府逃脱责任。

The wealthy countries need to act first.

富裕国家需要首先采取行动。

That means Canada and the US and Norway can't do more oil drilling

这意味着加拿大、美国和挪威 不能进行更多的石油钻探、

and fracking and new pipelines.

水力压裂开采和新管道建设。

It means that the UK cannot call itself a climate leader right now

英国也不能一边称自己为气候领导者，

and build the Cambo oil field.

一边建设坎博油田。

(Cheers and applause)

（欢呼鼓掌声）

So here's the good news.

那么好消息来了。

Support for the treaty is growing.

对该条约的支持正在增加。

Every day, I'm so excited to turn on my computer.

我每天都很期待打开电脑。

101 Nobel laureates, including the Dalai Lama,

101位诺贝尔奖得主， 包括达赖喇嘛，

have endorsed the principles of a fossil fuel treaty.

都支持《化石燃料不扩散条约》。

Cities from around the world are passing motions at their city councils

悉尼，巴塞罗那，洛杉矶， 温哥华等世界各地的城市

to endorse a fossil fuel treaty:

也正积极地在市议会上进行提议，

Sydney, Barcelona, LA, Vancouver.

支持化石燃料不扩散条约。

Over 100 elected officials from around the world, from 20 countries

自南半球起，全世界中

来自20个国家的100多名民选官员

starting in the global South

have endorsed the principles of a fossil fuel treaty.

都支持化石燃料不扩散条约的原则。

Over 2,000 scientists have now endorsed the principles of the Fossil Fuel Treaty.

目前已有2000多名科学家赞同 《化石燃料条约》的原则。

Indigenous leaders, youth groups,

几十年来，土著领导人、青年团体

over 800 civil society organizations

和800多个民间社会组织

who have been fighting fossil fuel projects for decades

一直在反对化石燃料项目；

are now calling on their governments

他们现在也呼吁政府

to negotiate a treaty to keep it in the ground.

加紧谈判达成协议 让化石燃料在地下长眠。

Some of the criticism we get is that it's too big, it's unfeasible,

我们得到的一些批评是： 这个项目太大了，不现实，

it'll take too long.

需要太长时间。

But the same was erroneously said about weapons treaties.

但关于武器条约， 人们也错误地提出这样的评论。

For me, the answer is we don't have time for more of the same.

我觉得我们没有时间 再重复同样的错误讨论了。

We know that oil-producing nations

我们知道，石油生产国

are not likely to embrace the Fossil Fuel Treaty.

不太可能接受 化石燃料不扩散条约。

But what we've learned from studying landmines,

但我们从研究地雷

what we've learned from studying nuclear,

和研究核事故中学到的是，

is that the journey matters.

过程很重要。

Just proposing a fossil fuel treaty is creating new conversations

仅仅是提出一项化石燃料条约，

就能引发新的对话和新的气候追求。

and new climate ambition.

A fossil fuel treaty will help us wind down

化石燃料条约将帮助我们

the production of fossil fuels.

减少化石燃料的生产。

It will provide a complement

这是对《巴黎协定》所追求 目标的补充和帮助。

and help us achieve the goals of the Paris accord.

It is a big, bold new idea.

这是一个崭新、大胆的想法。

But at this moment in history, we need some big, bold new ideas.

但我们在这个历史节点上， 需要一些崭新、大胆的想法。

In 2021, millions of people lost their homes.

2021年，数百万人失去了他们的家。

Thousands of people lost their lives

成千上万人在大火、洪灾和 热浪肆虐时失去了生命。

as the fires and the floods and the heat waves swept our planet.

I know that this can seem overwhelming.

我知道这看起来有点难以承受，

But we are capable of enormous change in our lifetimes.

但我们有能力在有限的生命里 做出巨大的改变。

I had a conversation with my grandmother once when I was out of hope.

记得有一次在我绝望的时候， 我和我的奶奶聊了几句。

Feeling overwhelmed.

我当时不知所措。

And she said to me,

她对我说：

"Do you understand how much the world has changed in my lifetime?"

“你知道在我的一生中， 世界发生了多大的变化吗?”

She said, "When your mother was growing up,

她说:“在你妈妈小时候，

we didn't have cell phones or computers.

我们还没有手机或电脑。

We had a phone on the wall, it was a party line.

我们的墙上有个挂壁电话，还是共线的。

When it rang twice, it was for us."

铃响两次才是打给我们的。”

She said, "I didn't know anyone who'd ever been on a plane."

她说：“我当时不认识有谁坐过飞机。”

She told me that the world had entirely changed in her lifetime.

她告诉我，在她的有生之年， 世界发生了翻天覆地的变化。

She said, "How we travel, how we communicate,

她说，“我们如何旅行，如何交流，

and it will in yours as well."

到你们这一代也一样会变。”

So when I do this work every day for a fossil fuel treaty,

所以当我每天为推进化石燃料条约而奋斗时,

I'm holding on to the idea

我也期盼着，

that one day I'm going to be sitting with my grandchildren,

希望有一天能告诉我的孙辈们，

I'm going to be telling them about this time in our history

我要告诉他们

when we clawed at the last primary forest to get at the oil.

当年我们是如何为了石油 向最后一片原始森林伸出魔爪的。

This crazy time in our history when we used to fill our cars with gas,

历史里曾有一个疯狂的年代， 人们会给车加油，

heat our homes with gas.

用天然气取暖。

And they,

而他们，

well, they will barely believe me,

哈哈，他们几乎不会相信我，

because the world will be such a different place.

因为那时的世界将是 一个非常不同的地方。

Thank you.

谢谢大家。

(Applause and cheers)

（欢呼鼓掌声）