Tzeporah Berman: The bad math of the fossil fuel industry | TED Countdown

譯者: Martin Tan 審譯者: Zoe Walmsley

Canada's great northern forests,

加拿大的北方森林，

they're the place of my heart.

是我心所繫之處。

They hold 25 percent of the Earth's wetlands.

它佔了全球濕地總量的 25%。

And they're the nesting and breeding ground

也是大多數北美鳴禽的棲息繁衍之地。

of the majority of North America's songbirds.

They're the traditional territories of hundreds of Indigenous nations.

也是數百個土著民族部落的領土。

And my climate journey started here as a forest activist a long time ago.

很久以前，我的氣候之旅 就從保護這片森林的運動開始。

I was horrified that Canada's old-growth forests are being logged.

我震驚於加拿大的原始森林遭到砍伐、

They're burning.

森林大火、

They're being destroyed by beetle infestations.

及甲蟲肆虐帶來的破壞。

But also because so much of the forest is under threat

我也震驚於大片的森林面臨威脅，

because of what lies under it.

全因藏在森林之下的──

Oil.

石油。

At the time,

當時，

I thought that Canada's failure to reduce emissions

我以為加拿大減少碳排的失敗原因

was because we had a government

是因為我們的政府

that just didn't believe in climate change.

不相信氣候變遷。

But then in 2015, we elected a new government.

2015 年我們選出了新政府。

And Prime Minister Trudeau came to Paris

杜魯多總理造訪巴黎，

and with his hand on his heart,

拍胸脯承諾說：

he said, "Canada's back."

「加拿大回來了。」

And he went home to introduce some really good climate policy,

回國後推出了一些很好的氣候政策、

carbon pricing.

碳定價政策。

And our emissions didn't go down.

然而我們的碳排量卻未降低。

And the government continued to green-light

政府持續放行，

and even subsidize

甚至補貼

new oil sands, pipelines and fracking.

新的油砂、油管、水利壓裂， 繼續開採天然氣。

And that, for me, was the moment

對我而言，那當下

when I realized where one of the big problems lie.

讓我理解許多重大問題的其中之一。

Our governments are regulating emissions

我們的政府雖然管制碳排量，

but not the production of fossil fuels.

卻沒管制石化燃料的生產。

You see, climate policy and agreements, they are complicated,

沒錯，氣候政策和協定都很複雜，

but what's simple

但很簡單的是

is that the majority of emissions

目前絕大多數集結在 大氣層中的的碳排量，

that are trapped in our atmosphere today,

well, they come from three products:

主要來自三個產物：

oil, gas and coal.

石油、天然氣及煤。

For decades, our countries have been negotiating targets.

數十年來，各國持續協商各項目標。

But behind our backs, the fossil fuel industry has been growing production

但在檯面下，石化燃料產業繼續增產。

and locking in further emissions.

同時鎖定更多的碳排量。

I started reaching out to climate policy experts from around the world

我開始聯繫世界各地的氣候政策專家，

because I wanted to understand what frameworks exist to negotiate

因為我想了解是否有何協商框架

who gets to produce what and how much;

用以決定誰能生產甚麼、產量多少；

what policies help governments regulate,

是否有政策協助政府控管、

constrain the production side of fossil fuels.

限制石化燃料的生產。

I found out that very few do.

我發現這方面的政策很少。

I will never forget the day

我永遠不會忘記那天

that I sat with the Paris Agreement

我把巴黎協定拿出來看，

and I searched for the words

搜尋以下幾個關鍵字──

fossil fuels,

石化燃料、

oil, gas, coal.

石油、天然氣、煤。

They didn't appear.

我一個也沒找到。

Not even once in the world's climate agreement.

即使在世界氣候協定中 一次也沒有出現。

The fossil fuel industry has been successful in making itself invisible.

石化燃料產業成功地讓自己隱形了。

I started reaching out and met with, for several years,

我花了好幾年聯絡、拜訪

the CEOs of major oil companies

一些主要石油公司的執行長，

because I wanted to understand

因為我想了解

what these CEOs see when they read the science.

這些執行長對科學報告的看法。

How can they justify expanding oil and gas at this moment in our history?

他們如何交代為何此刻 仍在擴大開採石油及天然氣？

And also because I believe that there are good people everywhere.

也因為我相信到處都有好人。

There are good people stuck in some bad systems.

好人卻陷於不良的體制內。

What I learned is that they know.

我發現他們其實都知道。

They know that we're going to have to wind down fossil fuel production.

他們知道石化燃料的減產是必然。

But they are all holding out hope

但他們同時也都期望，

that they will be the last barrel sold.

期望能撐到最後一刻。

Or that unproven technologies, like carbon capture and storage,

期望未經證實可行的 碳捕捉和碳儲存技術

will allow them to continue to increase production.

能讓他們繼續增加生產下去。

The problem is the math just doesn't add up.

問題是怎麼算都不合理。

We are currently on track today

照目前的趨勢來看，

to produce 120 percent more fossil fuels

接下來的十年間，

石化燃料的產量會比 世界所需的多出 120%，

in the next decade

than the world should burn

if we want to stay below 1.5 degrees Celsius.

如果我們想維持在 攝氏 1.5 度以下的話。

In fact, even if we phased out coal overnight,

事實上，即使我們能在一夜之間

oil and gas in existing projects

停用現行項目中所使用的 煤碳、石油與天然氣，

would take us beyond 1.5 degrees.

仍然會超過 1.5 度。

For decades, climate policy has been designed on a theory

幾十年來的氣候政策 始終都奠基於一個理論上──

that we are going to reduce demand,

人們的需求量逐漸降低，

that the price of carbon is going to go up,

同時碳定價持續走高，

and the markets turbocharged by alternatives --

而市場也有替代方案推陳出新──

wind and solar, now cheaper than fossil fuels --

如風能、太陽能── 現在比石化燃料便宜──

well, the markets are going to constrain supply.

讓市場機制去限制供給量。

The problem is it's not happening.

問題是現實並非如此。

Not fast enough to keep us safe.

改變發生得太慢， 無法讓我們脫離險境。

Why?

為什麼？

Because the markets today are distorted,

因為市場機制已被扭曲──

they're distorted by tax breaks and fossil-fuel subsidies,

因稅務優惠及石化燃料補貼而扭曲，

but also because of the power of the fossil fuel industry.

也因石化燃料產業的影響力而扭曲。

The influence of the industry, who no longer deny climate change.

石化產業雖然不再否認氣候變遷，

But they have moved from denial to delusion:

但態度卻從否認轉成錯覺：

that technologies that are not yet proven at scale,

以為那些尚未經過大規模施行驗證，

that are not yet cost-competitive -- are going to fix it.

成本也未達競爭力的科技 能在不久的將來解決問題。

In the future.

I've spent 30 years running environmental campaigns,

我花了 30 年推動環保運動，

I've advised multiple governments on climate policy,

為許多政府提供氣候政策的諮詢，

I’ve been arrested on the blockades,

也曾經在封鎖線被逮捕，

and I've negotiated in the boardrooms

以及在全球最大的銀行和企業

of some of the largest banks and corporations in the world.

參與董事會的協商。

And when I figured out that we don't have a framework

當我發現沒有任何協商框架

for constraining the production of fossil fuels,

去限制石化燃料的生產，

I thought I was crazy.

我抓狂了。

And so did some of my colleagues.

我的一些同僚也是。

But here's the thing.

因為真正的重點是，

Today we are granting permits,

今天我們一邊發放許可，

we are spending trillions of dollars

一邊花費幾兆的美金

to increase the production of products

去增加生產──

生產我們說要淘汰的東西。

that we say we're transitioning off of.

It's not a transition if we're still growing the problem.

讓問題繼續擴張，這算是淘汰嗎？

We have more than enough fossil fuels in existing installations,

現存的石化燃料儲備量 已經超過我們所需的，

even if we stopped expansion today,

即使現在立即停止擴產，

of oil, gas and coal in existing projects to use

除了現行計畫所需的 石油、天然氣與煤，

while we carefully manage a phasedown.

我們還有足夠的量 讓我們度過淘汰期所需。

And so the world is spending its intellectual,

全世界的知識分子、

its financial, its technical capital

金融及技術資本

to dig up stuff that we know we can't burn,

都用在挖掘我們知道不該使用的燃料，

and if we do, it will burn us.

而玩火的下場就是引火自焚。

So what do we do?

所以我們能做什麼？

A year ago, a group of academics, advocates,

一年前，一群學者、倡議者、

scientists and former diplomats came together to create

科學家、卸任的外交官一起創立了

the Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty Initiative

《化石燃料不擴散條約倡議》

to create the missing framework

建立之前所缺的架構，

so countries can negotiate a wind down of fossil fuels

讓所有的國家能有個協商平台，

in a way that is fair,

以一個對大家都公平合理的方式

in a way that is equitable.

終結石化燃料。

Shockingly, one of the things we found out

調查結果中有個令人震驚的發現是：

is that we don't have accounting or transparency right now

目前沒有公開透明的統計資訊，

on who's producing what and how much.

顯示誰在生產甚麼燃料、產量多少。

So work is now underway to create a global registry

所以現階段的工作是 建立一個全球註冊系統，

of fossil fuel production and reserves.

用以記錄石化燃料的生產及儲備量。

We are also at work

我們同時也著手於

creating the principles of equity that have to underlie a treaty

建立一套與條約配套的公正準則，

because the challenges to stop the expansion of fossil fuels

因為要停止擴張石化燃料，

in some countries

某些國家所將面臨的挑戰 會跟其它的國家很不同。

are going to be so different than in other countries.

There are countries today

今天有些國家，

in the developing world, like Ecuador,

例如開發中國家的厄瓜多爾，

that are drilling for new oil in the heart of the Amazon

在亞馬遜心臟地帶開鑿新的油田

just to feed their debt.

就僅是為了償債。

So no,

因此，不行，

we cannot rely just on the markets

我們不能完全仰賴市場機制

to constrain fossil fuel production.

去限縮石化燃料。

If we do, it will be an unmanaged decline instead of a managed decline,

仰賴市場機制去減少用量 而不做適當管理，

and more people will suffer.

受害的人會更多。

We need financial leadership at this moment.

此時，我們所需的是金融專家。

We need divestment at this moment.

此刻，我們該做的是撤資。

But we can’t let governments off the hook.

但我們不能讓政府置身事外。

The wealthy countries need to act first.

富裕的國家必須要先開始行動。

That means Canada and the US and Norway can't do more oil drilling

也就是說美國、加拿大及挪威 應該要停止開挖新油井、

and fracking and new pipelines.

或用水利壓裂、新油管繼續開採。

It means that the UK cannot call itself a climate leader right now

同時，英國不能自稱為氣候領袖，

and build the Cambo oil field.

如果還要繼續蓋坎博油田。

(Cheers and applause)

（歡呼聲及掌聲）

So here's the good news.

還有個好消息。

Support for the treaty is growing.

支持這個條約的人持續增加。

Every day, I'm so excited to turn on my computer.

我每天打開電腦都很興奮。

101 Nobel laureates, including the Dalai Lama,

已經有 101 位諾貝爾獎得主── 包括達賴喇嘛在內，

have endorsed the principles of a fossil fuel treaty.

為石化燃料條約的準則背書。

Cities from around the world are passing motions at their city councils

世界各地的城也透過 在市議會通過動議，

to endorse a fossil fuel treaty:

來替石化燃料條約背書，例如：

Sydney, Barcelona, LA, Vancouver.

雪梨、巴賽隆納、洛杉磯、溫哥華。

Over 100 elected officials from around the world, from 20 countries

還有來自 20 國， 超過 100 位政府官員，

starting in the global South

從南半球開始──

have endorsed the principles of a fossil fuel treaty.

也加入為石化燃料條約背書的行列。

Over 2,000 scientists have now endorsed the principles of the Fossil Fuel Treaty.

目前為石化燃料條約準則背書的 還有超過兩千名的科學家、

Indigenous leaders, youth groups,

原民領袖、青年團體、

over 800 civil society organizations

超過 800 個民間組織，

who have been fighting fossil fuel projects for decades

他們數十年來抗爭石化燃料工程，

are now calling on their governments

現在紛紛起來呼籲各自的政府

to negotiate a treaty to keep it in the ground.

希望協商研擬條約停止開鑿。

Some of the criticism we get is that it's too big, it's unfeasible,

有些人批評我們目標太大、不切實際、

it'll take too long.

太耗費時間。

But the same was erroneously said about weapons treaties.

以前，武器條約也是被這樣說， 但時間證明他們錯了。

For me, the answer is we don't have time for more of the same.

對此，我的回應是： 我們沒時間證明同樣的錯誤。

We know that oil-producing nations

我們知道那些產油國

are not likely to embrace the Fossil Fuel Treaty.

不太可能會接受石化燃料條約。

But what we've learned from studying landmines,

但我們過去對地雷的研究所知，

what we've learned from studying nuclear,

從研究核武所得到的是：

is that the journey matters.

過程很重要。

Just proposing a fossil fuel treaty is creating new conversations

光是研擬石化燃料條約 就開啟了新的對話，

and new climate ambition.

以及新的氣候雄心。

A fossil fuel treaty will help us wind down

石化燃料條約能夠協助降低

the production of fossil fuels.

石化燃料的生產。

It will provide a complement

同時也能提供一個配套，

and help us achieve the goals of the Paris accord.

協助我們達成《巴黎協定》的目標。

It is a big, bold new idea.

這是個遠大、大膽、新穎的想法。

But at this moment in history, we need some big, bold new ideas.

但在歷史的此刻，我們需要 遠大、大膽、新穎的想法。

In 2021, millions of people lost their homes.

2021 年，數百萬人失去家園，

Thousands of people lost their lives

數千人喪生於席捲全球的 大火、洪災及熱浪。

as the fires and the floods and the heat waves swept our planet.

I know that this can seem overwhelming.

我知道這看似困難重重，

But we are capable of enormous change in our lifetimes.

但我們可以應付 生命中出現的巨大改變。

I had a conversation with my grandmother once when I was out of hope.

某次在我萬念俱灰時，我和祖母交談。

Feeling overwhelmed.

當時我感到不知所措。

And she said to me,

她對我說，

"Do you understand how much the world has changed in my lifetime?"

「妳知道這世界在我這輩子 發生過多大的改變嗎？」

She said, "When your mother was growing up,

她說：「在妳母親還小的時候，

we didn't have cell phones or computers.

我們沒有手機或電腦。

We had a phone on the wall, it was a party line.

我們只有掛在牆上的電話， 而且還是共用的線路。

When it rang twice, it was for us."

如果響兩聲，就是找我們的。」

She said, "I didn't know anyone who'd ever been on a plane."

她說：「我認識的人當中 沒有一個搭過飛機。」

She told me that the world had entirely changed in her lifetime.

她說她這輩子「看到世界完全地改變，

She said, "How we travel, how we communicate,

包括旅行及溝通方式，

and it will in yours as well."

而妳在妳有生之年 也會看到世界改變。」

So when I do this work every day for a fossil fuel treaty,

現在，我每天為石化燃料條約努力時，

I'm holding on to the idea

我所想的就是──

that one day I'm going to be sitting with my grandchildren,

未來，當我和孫子們聊天時，

I'm going to be telling them about this time in our history

我會跟他們講此時這段歷史，

when we clawed at the last primary forest to get at the oil.

人類為了石油破壞僅存的原始林。

This crazy time in our history when we used to fill our cars with gas,

我們歷史上一個瘋狂的時代── 我們用汽油發動車子、

heat our homes with gas.

用汽油為房子提供暖氣，

And they,

而他們，

well, they will barely believe me,

他們一定會難以置信，

because the world will be such a different place.

因為到那個時候世界已經完全不同。

Thank you.

謝謝。

(Applause and cheers)

（掌聲及歡呼聲）