Al Gore: How to make radical climate action the new normal | TED Countdown

翻译人员: Xinnan Teng 校对人员: Ziyao Wang

So the climate crisis, in my way of thinking about it,

按照我的想法， 气候危机

is the most serious manifestation

是在我们目前

of an underlying collision between human civilization

所组建的人类文明 和地球生态系统之间

as we’ve presently organized it

and the Earth's ecological systems.

潜在碰撞中 最严重的表现。

And the system most in jeopardy

被损害最严重的系统

is the very thin shell of atmosphere surrounding our planet,

是围绕着我们星球的 非常薄的大气层，

because we're spewing 162 million tons of human-caused global warming pollution

我们每天排放 1.62 亿吨的 人造的温室气体进入大气层，

into it every single day, as if this is an open sewer.

就好像它是 一个开放的下水道。

It's not an open sewer.

但它不是一个开放的下水道。

It's so thin that if you could drive an automobile at autobahn speeds

大气层薄到如果你 以高速公路上的速度驾驶汽车，

to the top of that blue shell,

你可以在五分钟之内

you'd reach it in about five minutes.

到达这个蓝色保护层的顶部。

And that's where all the greenhouse gases are.

那里是所有温室气体的存放处。

The accumulated amount,

堆积的气体

coming from the burning of fossil fuels primarily, CO2 --

主要来自燃烧化石燃料， 二氧化碳——

fastest-growing source of methane is from fossil fuels as well,

增长最快的甲烷 也来自化石燃料，

also, agriculture as you have heard --

以及你们听说的农业——

the accumulated amount traps as much heat now

这里堆积的气体 困住的热量

as would be released by 600,000 Hiroshima-class atomic bombs

就像 60 万颗广岛原子弹

exploding every day.

每天都在爆炸。

So the temperatures are going up at almost record levels every year.

所以气温每年都在 以破纪录的水平增长。

Last year was the hottest year in recorded history,

根据美国国家航空航天局 （NASA)，去年是历史记录上

according to NASA,

最热的一年，

and the scientists say it’s absolutely unequivocal that we are the cause of that.

而且科学家们非常确信 我们是罪魁祸首。

And we’re hearing Mother Nature and seeing the extreme events.

我们正听到大自然的声音 并看到一些极端的事件。

The most anomalous extreme event since records began 200 years ago

自200年前有记录以来 最反常的极端事件

was in the Pacific Northwest of North America.

位于北美的太平洋西北部。

Forty nine and a half degrees,

在大不列颠哥伦比亚省，

121 degrees Fahrenheit in British Columbia.

49.5 摄氏度， 相当于 121 华氏度。

In the tropics and subtropics,

在热带和亚热带，

the combination of temperature and humidity

气温和湿度的组合

is now making larger areas literally uninhabitable,

正让更大片区域 变得不宜居住，

the area so described is relatively small now,

这片区域现在还相对较小，

but if we continue over the next few decades,

但如果我们持续下去， 在接下来的几十年

these areas are predicted to expand,

这些地区预计会扩大，

and billions of people will be in areas where it is not safe to stay outside

数十亿人将居住在 待在户外超过几个小时

for more than a couple of hours.

就不安全的地方。

Already, the climate refugees and migrants

气候危机导致的 难民和移民数量

are four times more from the climate crisis

比所有的战争和冲突导致的

than from all the wars and conflicts going on right now.

还要多四倍。

And the respected “Lancet” commission

受人尊敬的柳叶刀（Lancet) 杂志委员会

has predicted as many as a billion climate refugees in this century.

预测本世纪将有 多达十亿的气候难民。

That's one of the reasons why we are seeing this wave

这也是我们 看到这一波

of populist authoritarianism.

民粹威权主义的原因之一。

Sea level rise is also contributing, and of course,

海平面上升也对此有贡献，

93 percent of the extra heat is absorbed in the oceans,

当然，93%的额外热量 是被海洋吸收的，

and the ocean temperatures are reaching record levels as well.

海洋温度也到达了 创纪录水平。

And that means more water vapor comes off the oceans,

这意味着更多的水蒸气 离开海洋，

and the warmer ocean temperature makes the cyclonic storms,

更温暖的海水温度 让类似于飓风和台风的

like hurricanes and typhoons much stronger.

气旋风暴更强了。

Hurricane Ida struck the Gulf Coast as a category four,

飓风艾达以四级的强度 袭击了墨西哥湾沿岸，

and as is so often the case,

就像总发生的那样，

communities of color and poor people were disproportionately victimized.

有色人种和穷人的社区 受到不成比例的伤害。

This storm continued on north and northeast

这场风暴继续 在北部和东北部

across North America to New York,

横跨北美到纽约、

New Jersey and Pennsylvania,

新泽西和宾夕法尼亚州，

killed a lot of people and dropped rain bombs.

投下雨弹， 导致很多人失去生命。

And in New York City

在纽约市，

some basement apartments were flooded.

很多地下室进水了。

And I appreciate this family giving me the right to show this video.

我感谢这个家庭给了我 展示此视频的权利。

(Screams)

（尖叫声）

He’s safe, the guy is screaming for his mother.

他是安全的，他是在 为他的母亲尖叫。

He and his mother were both rescued by his brother,

他和他的妈妈 被他的哥哥救了出来，

who punched a hole through the roof from the floor above.

他哥哥在地下室的屋顶， 也就是上层的地板上打了个洞。

These rain bombs are becoming much more frequent and much more extreme.

这些雨弹变得越来越 频繁且极端。

And actually the water coming off the oceans

这些水实际上 来自海洋，

is held in much greater volumes by the warmer air.

更温暖的空气 保留住了更多水分。

Atmospheric rivers are becoming larger.

大气河流变得越来越大。

Here's one, from Hawaii in the lower left

这有一个例子， 从左下角的夏威夷

to Silicon Valley in the upper right,

到右上角的硅谷，

2,300 kilometers.

2300 公里。

What was happening in Silicon Valley when this satellite picture was made?

在拍这张卫星照片的时候， 硅谷正在发生什么？

Well, that's what happens when these rain bombs drop,

这就是雨弹被扔下时 发生的事情，

and the average atmospheric river now contains as much moisture

大气河流现在 平均包含的水分

as 25 Mississippi Rivers.

有 25 条密西西比河那么多。

They’re creating what you could call “atmospheric tsunamis” in some areas.

它们正在一些地区 制造所谓的“大气海啸“。

The downpours get much bigger and much more frequent,

现在，倾盆大雨变得 更大且更频繁，

four times more frequent now than in 1980.

是 1980 年的四倍。

One of them dropped on Germany

其中，7月的时候，

and neighboring countries in July,

在德国和周围的国家，

killed more than 200 people.

两百多人失去了生命。

Look at the before and after.

看看降雨前后的对比。

This is an example of what we're doing to our planet.

这是我们对我们的星球 所作所为的一个例子。

Ten days ago, in part of Italy,

十天前，在意大利一个地区，

there were 74 centimeters that fell in 12 hours,

12个小时之内 降水量达 74 厘米，

29 inches of rain in 12 hours.

即 12 小时内降了 29 英寸的雨。

One year ago, October 3rd,

一年前， 在10月3日，

as much rain fell here in the UK as there is water in Loch Ness.

英国的降雨量和 尼斯湖的水量一样多。

And as a result, the insurance industry is now seeing record recoveries,

结果，保险业现在看到 创纪录的损失修复，

and those recoveries I showed you from last year may get a tiny bit larger,

这些我去年所展示的修复 根据诉讼的结果，

depending on the outcome of this lawsuit.

可能会变得更大。

The owners and operators of this giant replica of Noah's Ark have

这个巨大的诺亚方舟 复制品的所有者和经营者

sued their insurance company for a million dollars in flood damages.

已经起诉了他们的保险公司 一百万美元的洪水损失。

Hard to make some of this stuff up.

要编造出这样的东西挺难的。

(Laughter)

（笑声）

The same extra heat is pulling the moisture out

这多余的热量正在把水分

of the first meter of the soil,

从土壤最表层的 1 米处吸出，

creating the worst droughts in memory.

造成了记忆中最严重的 一次旱灾。

93 percent of the American West is in drought now,

美国西部 93% 的地区 现在处于干旱状态，

100 percent of California,

加利福尼亚州则是 100%，

half of California is in the most extreme form of drought,

加州一半地区正处在 最极端的干旱中，

and the same heat is also draining the reservoirs,

并且热量也在 吸干蓄水池，

evaporating the reservoirs.

蒸发水库。

Lake Mead is down to levels not seen since they started filling it

米德湖水位下降到了 自 1930 年代开始蓄水后

in the 1930s.

从未达到的新低。

In Brazil, the same thing is happening.

同样的事情正发生巴西。

In Eastern Europe,

在东欧，

the Czech Republic has been going through the worst drought in at least 500 years.

捷克共和国正在经历 至少 500 年来最严重的干旱。

And in the southern cone of Africa,

而在非洲的南锥体，

100 million people are experiencing food insecurity

1 亿人正因为长期的干旱

primarily because of the extended droughts.

经历粮食危机。

And when the temperatures go up, the fires get a lot worse

当温度升高时， 火灾会变得更糟

and the worst fires in California and western US history

加州和美国西部历史上 最严重的火灾

have been in the last two years.

都在过去的两年里发生。

Also in Siberia, in Australia,

火灾也发生在 西伯利亚，澳大利亚

in southern Europe.

和欧洲南部。

It doesn’t have to ruin your golf game.

火灾不必毁掉你的 高尔夫比赛。

And this is a serious point,

这是一个严肃的问题，

because we can't let these conditions become the new normal.

因为我们不能让这些事 成为新常态。

It's not fine.

这不好。

And this is an example of why it's not fine.

这是一个说明 这为什么不好的例子。

A lightning strike hitting a natural gas leak

这是在墨西哥湾的中部，

in the middle of the Gulf of Mexico.

闪电雷暴击中了 一次天然气泄漏。

Lightning gets more common with the climate crisis.

随着气候危机， 闪电变得更加普遍。

We're relying on dead plants and animals,

我们依赖死去的 植物和动物，

leaving their residue in the atmosphere

却将它们的残留物 留在大气中

to threaten the species that are still alive,

来威胁还活着的物种，

and 50 percent of them are in danger of extinction in this century.

它们中的 50% 在本世纪 将面临灭绝的危险。

And as we push into previously wild areas of the world,

当我们进入地球上曾经是 野生地带的地方，

we encounter millions of new viruses

我们和数以万计的 新病毒相遇，

that we have not dealt with in the past.

这些是我们在过去 从未处理过的。

Five new infectious diseases every year, emerging,

每年都会出现5种新传染病，

three quarters of them from animals, like the COVID-19 pandemic.

其中四分之三来自动物， 例如新冠肺炎（COVID-19）。

Which raises some of the same questions that are raised by the climate crisis.

这提出了气候危机引发的 一些相同的问题。

When the world’s leading scientists

当世界顶尖科学家们

are setting their hair on fire to get our attention,

很努力地吸引我们的注意力，

should we listen to them?

我们应该听他们的吗？

Check.

应该。

Can our interconnected global civilization suddenly be turned upside down?

我们相互关联的全球文明 会忽然天翻地覆吗？

Check.

会的。

Are the poor and marginalized populations of the world the most affected?

世界上的贫困和边缘化人口 是否受到的影响最大？

Check.

是的。

Can science and technology give us nearly miraculous solutions in record time?

科技能在创纪录的时间内奇迹般地 为我们提供解决方案吗？

Check.

能的。

Will we deploy those solutions in time?

我们会及时部署这些解决方案吗？

That is the question.

这是个问题。

We have inequitable vaccine distribution in the world,

我们在世界上有 不公平的疫苗分配，

and it threatens everyone in the world.

它威胁着世界上的 每一个人。

We also have solutions to the climate crisis,

我们也有应对气候危机的 解决方案，

but they're not equitably distributed.

但它们的分布并不公平。

Worldwide, 90 percent of all of the new electricity generation

在全球范围内， 90% 去年安装的

installed last year was renewables.

新发电装置用的是 可再生能源。

Almost all of it from solar and wind.

这几乎全部来自 太阳能和风能。

Just one year before the Paris Agreement,

在巴黎协定签署前一年，

solar and wind electricity was cheaper than fossil electricity

太阳能和风能 仅在世界上百分之一的地方

in only one percent of the world.

比化石能源电力便宜。

Five years later, two thirds of the world.

五年之后， 世界的三分之二。

Three years from now, it will be the cheapest source

三年后，它会变成全世界 百分之百的地区

in 100 percent of the world.

最便宜的能源。

Coal is not getting cheaper.

煤炭没有变便宜。

Gas is not getting cheaper.

天然气没有变便宜。

Nuclear has been getting more expensive.

核能一直在变贵。

Wind is cheaper than all three,

风能比这三者都便宜，

and solar is continuing to plummet in cost and is the cheapest of all now

太阳能的成本持续下降， 目前成为最便宜的了，

because the cost of making the solar panels and the windmills

因为制作太阳能版 和风车的费用

continues to come down.

一直在下降。

By the way, the famous coal museum in Kentucky

顺便说一句，肯塔基州 著名的煤炭博物馆

just installed solar panels on its roof

刚在屋顶上安装了 太阳能电池板

in order to save in its operating budget.

以节省其运营预算。

(Applause)

（掌声）

Now we're getting battery storage.

现在我们正在获得电池储蓄。

I’ll rescale this graph to show you the predicted emergence

我将重新调整此图来 向你们展示未来几十年

of a new one-trillion-dollar industry in the next few decades

预测出现的一个 新的万亿美元产业，

and green hydrogen on top of that.

最重要的是绿色氢。

The car batteries are getting cheaper

汽车电池随着需求的 不断增加

as demand continues to increase.

变得越来越便宜。

And within less than two years in some model categories,

在两年内， 对某些车型来说，

the EVs will be cheaper

电动汽车会变得

than their internal combustion engine counterparts

比内燃机更便宜，

and within four years in all model categories.

四年内，这会普及到 所有车型。

So, the oil and gas industry

因此，石油和天然气行业

has been the worst investment in global markets for more than a decade,

十多年以来在全球市场 一直是最糟糕的投资，

while the clean energy companies are really becoming more profitable.

而清洁能源公司确实变得 越来越有利可图。

Now the oil and gas companies say

现在石油和天然气公司说

that they're going to invest a lot more in renewables and CCS.

他们将加大投资可再生能源 和碳捕集与封存（CSS）。

Yes, it’s the fastest-growing --

是的，这是增长最快的——

they’ve tripled their investments all the way up to four percent.

他们的投资已经翻了三倍， 达到了百分之四。

Ninety-six percent of the money they’re spending

百分之九十六他们花的钱

is still going into oil and gas and coal.

仍在进入石油、天然气 和煤炭领域。

(Applause)

（掌声）

The impression they've given us is not an honest impression,

他们给我们的印象 是不诚实的，

not for the first time.

这不是第一次了。

And they're telling a different story to Wall Street.

并且他们正向华尔街 讲述不同的故事。

They still have planes, trains, a few automobiles and ships,

他们仍然有飞机，火车， 一些汽车和轮船，

but they're telling Wall Street and financial markets

但他们正在告诉华尔街 和金融市场

they're going to make it up in plastics,

他们会用塑料来弥补，

which is 75 percent of their third-largest market,

这是他们第三大市场 石油化工的

petrochemicals.

百分之七十五。

How's that working out for us?

这对我们来说如何？

Not so well.

不太好。

Banning single-use plastics is one of the many things that we have to do.

禁止一次性塑料用品是 我们必须要做的许多事情之一。

We have to shift to sustainability.

我们必须转向可持续性。

And here's the good news,

而这里有一个好消息，

the sustainability revolution is the single biggest business opportunity

这场可持续性革命 是世界历史上

in the history of the world.

最大的商机。

It has the scale of the industrial revolution

它有工业革命的规模

coupled with the speed of the digital revolution.

加上数字化革命的速度。

And what we're seeing is that we have to seize this opportunity,

我们目前看到的是 我们必须抓住这次机会，

but we need reforms in the current version of capitalism.

但我们需要改革 目前的资本主义。

Capitalism does a lot of things great.

资本主义做了很多伟大的事情。

It balances supply and demand and allocates resources efficiently

它平衡供需， 高效配置资源

and often unlocks a higher fraction of the human potential.

并且经常解锁 更高的人类潜能。

And by the way, the alternatives on the left and right

并且顺便说一下， 左右翼的替换

explored in the 20th century didn't work out very well.

在20世纪的探索中 并没有取得好的效果。

But in order to see how we need to change capitalism,

但是为了看看我们需要 如何改变资本主义，

we have to pull out our focus.

我们必须抽出注意力。

And let me present an analogy.

让我打个比方。

The electromagnetic spectrum from the long radio waves

电磁光谱 从长无线电波

to the short gamma rays and all the things in between,

到短伽马射线 以及中间所有的光谱中，

the portion of visible light that we can see with our eyes

我们可以用眼睛看到的 那部分可见光

makes up only 0.1 percent of the total.

仅占总数的 0.1%。

For the eight years I worked in the White House,

我在白宫工作了八年，

I got a daily report from the intelligence community

我每天收到来自情报界

that collected from all parts of the spectrum,

收集光谱里 所有的部分的报告，

and it was a much more accurate picture.

那是更加准确的描述。

Here's the analogy.

这里是一个比喻。

The value spectrum is something we too frequently look at

价值范围是我们太过经常 通过对一个利益相关者，

through the very narrow aperture of short-term profits

即股东，来说非常狭窄的 短期利润空间

for one stakeholder, the shareholders.

看待的东西。

But this leaves out negative externalities,

但这遗漏了负面的外部效应，

as the economists call them, like the pollution.

正如经济学家所说的， 像污染一样。

That's why we need a price on carbon and a price on plastic pollution.

这就是我们需要碳排放价格 和塑料污染价格的原因。

It also leaves out positive externalities.

这也遗漏了正面的外部效应。

So we’re chronically underinvesting in education and health care

我们长期在教育、 医疗保健、

and environmental protection, pandemic preparedness.

环境保护和大流行病的 准备方面投资不足。

We're ignoring the depletion of resources like topsoil

我们忽略了表土 和地下水含水层

and underground water aquifers.

等资源的枯竭。

And we’re ignoring the distribution of incomes and net worths

我们忽略收入和净资产的分配， 地步达到了

to the point where one percent of the people

百分之一的人

have almost half of the world's wealth.

拥有世界上近一半的财富。

That's one of the other factors that's driving populist authoritarianism.

这是推动民粹主义威权主义 的其他几个因素之一。

We have to take account of the environmental effects

我们必须考虑 环境影响、

and the effects on people and their families

对人们和他们的 家庭的影响、

and the communities where they live

他们居住的社区、

and the communities in their supply chain

处于他们供应链中的社区

and the ethics in the C-suites.

和最高管理层的道德规范。

And we have to realize that hyper inequality

我们必须意识到 极度不平等

is a threat to both capitalism and to democracy.

是对资本主义 和民主的威胁。

There is an emergent form called multistakeholder capitalism,

有一种被称为多利益相关者 资本主义的涌现形式，

and it is driving a lot of new decisions.

它正在推动许多新决策。

For example, in asset management,

例如，在资产管理中，

almost half of all the assets in the world under management

世界上近乎一半的 被管理的资产

are now in portfolios committed to net-zero.

现在正致力于 净零的投资组合中。

One reason is that the Paris Agreement set the direction of travel,

原因之一是《巴黎协定》 规定了方向，

where every country in the world committed to net-zero.

世界上每个国家 都致力于实现净零。

So just last May,

去年5月，

the G7 nations banned financing of coal plants overseas.

七国集团（G7）禁止 融资海外燃煤电厂。

And just three weeks ago, China did, which is good,

几周前中国做了 同样的事，这很好，

because they were financing most of them.

因为中国是大部分 海外燃煤电厂的融资者。

I hope that they will cut down on the coal chain

我希望他们在中国国内也

in China domestically as well.

削减煤炭链。

And now more than half of all the greenhouse gas emissions

现在超过一半的 温室气体排放

and two thirds of global GDP

和三分之二的全球 GDP

is coming from countries that have set net-zero targets.

来自设定了净零目标的各国。

So here's the hope.

所以这就是希望。

Once we reach net-zero,

一旦我们达到净零，

then with a lag time of as little as three to five years,

然后有一个很短的 三到五年的滞后时间，

the temperatures in the world will stop going up.

世界的温度就会停止上升。

And once we reach net-zero within as little as 25 to 30 years,

一旦我们在短短的 25 到 30 年内达到净零，

half of the human-caused CO2 will fall out of the atmosphere.

人为造成的二氧化碳 有一半会从大气中脱落。

It is as if we have a switch

就好像我们有一个开关

that we can flip in order to stop the climate crisis.

可以翻转以阻止气候危机。

Regrettably, some damage has been done,

遗憾的是，一些伤害 已经造成了，

but we can stop the temperatures from going up

但我们可以阻止温度上升

and start the healing process.

并开始愈合过程。

But we all have to flip this switch

但我们必须翻转

known as reaching net-zero.

被称为达到净零的开关。

The young people are telling us that we have to,

年轻人们正在告诉我们 必须这么做

and they're marching in every country in the world.

他们在世界上各个国家游行。

And what's the response?

然后反应是什么？

As recently as this morning we heard,

就在今天早上我们听说，

"Well, it may be impossible."

“嗯，这可能是不可能的。”

Well, it's not impossible.

这不是不可能的。

Nelson Mandela said, “It always seems impossible until it’s done.”

纳尔逊·曼德拉说：“在完成之前， 这似乎总是不可能的。”

That's what they told the abolitionists.

这就是他们告诉 废奴主义者的话。

"It's impossible to eliminate slavery."

“废除奴隶制是不可能的。”

That's what they told the women's suffragettes.

这是他们告诉妇女参政论者的话。

"It's impossible to have equal rights for women."

“女性不可能享有平等的权利。”

In the civil rights movement in my country

在美国的民权运动，

and the anti-apartheid movement in South Africa and more recently,

南非的反种族隔离运动 以及最近的

the lesbian and gay liberation and equal rights movement.

男女同性恋解放 和平权运动中，

We can do this.

我们可以做到。

This is the biggest emergent social movement in all of history.

这是有史以来 最大的新兴社会运动。

We can do this.

我们做得到。

And if anybody thinks that we don't have the political will,

如果有人认为 我们没有政治意愿，

remember, political will is itself a renewable resource.

记住，政治意愿 本身就是一种可再生资源。

Thank you very much.

非常感谢。

(Cheers and applause)

（欢呼声和掌声）

Thank you.

谢谢。