Al Gore: How to make radical climate action the new normal | TED Countdown

譯者: Simon Chou 審譯者: Regina Chu

So the climate crisis, in my way of thinking about it,

氣候危機，以我的思考方式來說

is the most serious manifestation

是嚴重顯現出我們現有的人類文明

of an underlying collision between human civilization

as we’ve presently organized it

與地球生態系統潛在的衝突

and the Earth's ecological systems.

And the system most in jeopardy

系統中最危險的

is the very thin shell of atmosphere surrounding our planet,

就是包圍地球的稀薄大氣層

because we're spewing 162 million tons of human-caused global warming pollution

因為我們每天噴出

一億六千二百萬噸的暖化污染

into it every single day, as if this is an open sewer.

我們把大氣層當做下水道

It's not an open sewer.

但它不是開放式下水道

It's so thin that if you could drive an automobile at autobahn speeds

由於它太稀薄

如果以高速公路的行駛速度開車

to the top of that blue shell,

就能在五分鐘內

you'd reach it in about five minutes.

抵達大氣層的藍色外殼

And that's where all the greenhouse gases are.

那是所有溫室氣體停留的地方

The accumulated amount,

累積的氣體總量

coming from the burning of fossil fuels primarily, CO2 --

主要來自石化燃料的二氧化碳

fastest-growing source of methane is from fossil fuels as well,

增加速度最快的甲烷來源

也來自化石燃料

also, agriculture as you have heard --

還有你們聽過的農業

the accumulated amount traps as much heat now

累積封阻的龐大熱量

as would be released by 600,000 Hiroshima-class atomic bombs

等於 60 萬顆廣島級的原子彈

exploding every day.

每天爆炸後釋放的熱量

地球的溫度幾乎每年

So the temperatures are going up at almost record levels every year.

達到創紀錄的水準

Last year was the hottest year in recorded history,

太空總署報告

去年是有史最熱的一年

according to NASA,

and the scientists say it’s absolutely unequivocal that we are the cause of that.

科學家一致認為我們就是肇因

And we’re hearing Mother Nature and seeing the extreme events.

我們聽到大自然，也看到極端事件

The most anomalous extreme event since records began 200 years ago

200 年來最反常的極端事件

was in the Pacific Northwest of North America.

就發生在北美洲太平洋西北岸

Forty nine and a half degrees,

英屬哥倫比亞的溫度

121 degrees Fahrenheit in British Columbia.

高達攝氏 49.5 度或華氏 121 度

In the tropics and subtropics,

熱帶與亞熱帶地區

the combination of temperature and humidity

高溫與濕度的組合

is now making larger areas literally uninhabitable,

正在擴大不堪居住的地區

the area so described is relatively small now,

這些地區相對上算是小的

but if we continue over the next few decades,

如果我們依然故我，未來幾十年

these areas are predicted to expand,

這些地區就會擴大

and billions of people will be in areas where it is not safe to stay outside

幾十億的人口就無法

安全地在戶外幾個小時

for more than a couple of hours.

Already, the climate refugees and migrants

氣候難民和移民

are four times more from the climate crisis

已經四倍於所有的戰爭和衝突

than from all the wars and conflicts going on right now.

造成的難民和移民人口

And the respected “Lancet” commission

普受敬重的「柳葉刀」委員會

has predicted as many as a billion climate refugees in this century.

預測本世紀的氣候難民將高達十億

That's one of the reasons why we are seeing this wave

這是造成民粹威權主義

of populist authoritarianism.

興風作浪的原因之一

Sea level rise is also contributing, and of course,

海平面的上升當然也是原因之一

93 percent of the extra heat is absorbed in the oceans,

地球增加的熱量 93% 被海洋吸收

and the ocean temperatures are reaching record levels as well.

海洋溫度也達到了歷史新高

And that means more water vapor comes off the oceans,

這意味著海洋會釋放更多水蒸氣

and the warmer ocean temperature makes the cyclonic storms,

海洋溫度增加造成的氣旋風暴

like hurricanes and typhoons much stronger.

例如颶風和颱風更有威力

Hurricane Ida struck the Gulf Coast as a category four,

艾達颶風以四級威力重創墨西哥灣沿岸

and as is so often the case,

另一個常見的情況

communities of color and poor people were disproportionately victimized.

是有色人種與窮人社區

以不對稱的比例淪為受難者

This storm continued on north and northeast

風暴繼續向北部和東北部挺進

across North America to New York,

跨越北美洲到紐約

New Jersey and Pennsylvania,

紐澤西州和賓州

killed a lot of people and dropped rain bombs.

造成大量人口死亡

雨彈傾盆而下

And in New York City

大水淹沒了紐約市

some basement apartments were flooded.

一些公寓的地下室

And I appreciate this family giving me the right to show this video.

感謝這個家庭提供影片的播放權

（尖叫）

(Screams)

He’s safe, the guy is screaming for his mother.

他本人安全無恙 他在叫母親

He and his mother were both rescued by his brother,

他們母子是哥哥救出來的

who punched a hole through the roof from the floor above.

他從上面把屋頂打穿一個洞

These rain bombs are becoming much more frequent and much more extreme.

雨彈的頻率和威力越來越大

And actually the water coming off the oceans

這些來自海洋的水氣

is held in much greater volumes by the warmer air.

因空氣更溫暖而增多

Atmospheric rivers are becoming larger.

大氣河流越來越大

Here's one, from Hawaii in the lower left

這一條從左下角的夏威夷

to Silicon Valley in the upper right,

一路延伸到右上角的矽谷

2,300 kilometers.

全長 2,300 公里

What was happening in Silicon Valley when this satellite picture was made?

衛星照片顯示

矽谷發生了什麼事

Well, that's what happens when these rain bombs drop,

這就是雨彈造成的實際情況

and the average atmospheric river now contains as much moisture

一般的大氣河流吸收的水分

as 25 Mississippi Rivers.

等於 25 條密西西比河那麼多

They’re creating what you could call “atmospheric tsunamis” in some areas.

它們在某些地區形成了

所謂的「大氣海嘯」

The downpours get much bigger and much more frequent,

傾盆的雨勢威力更大，也更加頻繁

four times more frequent now than in 1980.

達到了 1980 年的四倍

One of them dropped on Germany

今年七月在德國

and neighboring countries in July,

和鄰國的一場暴雨

killed more than 200 people.

造成 200 多人死亡

Look at the before and after.

這是暴雨前後的對照

This is an example of what we're doing to our planet.

這個例子說明了我們對地球的破壞

Ten days ago, in part of Italy,

十天前，義大利的部分地區

there were 74 centimeters that fell in 12 hours,

12 小時內下了 74 毫米的雨量

29 inches of rain in 12 hours.

等於 12 小時內 29 吋的降雨量

One year ago, October 3rd,

一年前的 10 月 3 日

as much rain fell here in the UK as there is water in Loch Ness.

整個英國地區的降雨量

相當於一座尼斯湖的水量

And as a result, the insurance industry is now seeing record recoveries,

結果是保險業的災害賠償

創下了歷史紀錄

and those recoveries I showed you from last year may get a tiny bit larger,

這些是去年的災害賠償

也許會因為法律訴訟的結果

depending on the outcome of this lawsuit.

而有微增加的情形

The owners and operators of this giant replica of Noah's Ark have

這艘巨無霸諾亞方舟複製品的

所有人和經營者

sued their insurance company for a million dollars in flood damages.

向保險公司提告

要求一百萬美元的水災賠償

Hard to make some of this stuff up.

這種事很難編造出來

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

The same extra heat is pulling the moisture out

大氣中多餘的熱量

也吸收了表土一公尺內的水分

of the first meter of the soil,

creating the worst droughts in memory.

造成了記憶中最嚴重的乾旱

93 percent of the American West is in drought now,

美國西部有 93% 的地區

正進入乾旱期

100 percent of California,

加州 100% 的地區

half of California is in the most extreme form of drought,

一半的地區正面臨極端的乾旱

and the same heat is also draining the reservoirs,

同樣的熱量也把水庫吸乾

evaporating the reservoirs.

把蓄水蒸發一空

Lake Mead is down to levels not seen since they started filling it

米德湖的水位下降到

1930 年代以來的最低點

in the 1930s.

In Brazil, the same thing is happening.

巴西也上演著同樣的災情

In Eastern Europe,

東歐的捷克共和國

the Czech Republic has been going through the worst drought in at least 500 years.

正經歷 500 年來最嚴重的旱災

And in the southern cone of Africa,

非洲南端

100 million people are experiencing food insecurity

有一億人口正經歷糧荒

primarily because of the extended droughts.

主要原因是長期肆虐的旱災

And when the temperatures go up, the fires get a lot worse

隨著溫度的上升

燎原的野火此起彼落

and the worst fires in California and western US history

加州的森林大火是美國西部史

have been in the last two years.

兩年來最嚴重的一次

Also in Siberia, in Australia,

同樣的火災也發生在西伯利亞、澳洲

in southern Europe.

和南歐

It doesn’t have to ruin your golf game.

也許還不至於破壞你的高爾夫球賽

And this is a serious point,

這是一個嚴峻的問題

because we can't let these conditions become the new normal.

因為我們不能讓這些情況

變成新的常態

It's not fine.

這不是好現象

And this is an example of why it's not fine.

這個例子說明了它不好的原因

A lightning strike hitting a natural gas leak

一道雷擊中墨西哥灣中間

in the middle of the Gulf of Mexico.

一個有天然氣外洩的水域

Lightning gets more common with the climate crisis.

隨著氣候危機的惡化

閃電越來越常見

We're relying on dead plants and animals,

我們依賴死亡的動、植物

leaving their residue in the atmosphere

留在大氣裡的殘骸

to threaten the species that are still alive,

威脅其他仍然活著的物種

and 50 percent of them are in danger of extinction in this century.

本世紀有 50% 的物種瀕臨絕種

And as we push into previously wild areas of the world,

隨著人類不斷地往荒野地區推進

we encounter millions of new viruses

出現了數百萬種

that we have not dealt with in the past.

前所未見的新病毒

Five new infectious diseases every year, emerging,

平均每年出現五種新傳染病

three quarters of them from animals, like the COVID-19 pandemic.

其中的四分之三來自動物

就像 COVID-19 疫情一樣

Which raises some of the same questions that are raised by the climate crisis.

這引發了與氣候危機相同的問題

When the world’s leading scientists

世界頂尖的科學家們

are setting their hair on fire to get our attention,

挖空心思地想引起我們的關注

should we listen to them?

我們應該傾聽嗎？

Check.

應該

Can our interconnected global civilization suddenly be turned upside down?

我們休戚與共的全球文明

會突然發生翻天覆地的變化嗎？

Check.

會

Are the poor and marginalized populations of the world the most affected?

世界的貧困與邊緣人口

是影響最嚴重的族群嗎？

Check.

是

Can science and technology give us nearly miraculous solutions in record time?

科技有能力帶給我們

幾近於奇蹟的解決方案嗎？

Check.

有

Will we deploy those solutions in time?

我們會及時部署這些解決方案嗎？

That is the question.

這就是問題所在了

We have inequitable vaccine distribution in the world,

世界各地疫苗分配不均的問題

and it threatens everyone in the world.

威脅著全世界的每一個人

We also have solutions to the climate crisis,

我們也有解決氣候危機的方案

but they're not equitably distributed.

但解決方案的分佈卻不公平

Worldwide, 90 percent of all of the new electricity generation

全世界去年安裝的新電能廠

installed last year was renewables.

有 90% 的比例是再生能源

Almost all of it from solar and wind.

幾乎全部來自太陽能和風能

Just one year before the Paris Agreement,

《巴黎協定》簽署的前一年

solar and wind electricity was cheaper than fossil electricity

比化石電力便宜太陽能和風能

in only one percent of the world.

僅佔全世界的百分之一

Five years later, two thirds of the world.

五年後，占世界的三分之二

Three years from now, it will be the cheapest source

三年後會成為全世界

in 100 percent of the world.

最便宜的能源

Coal is not getting cheaper.

煤炭並沒有因此更加便宜

Gas is not getting cheaper.

天然氣沒有更加便宜

Nuclear has been getting more expensive.

核電越來越昂貴

Wind is cheaper than all three,

風電比這三種都便宜

and solar is continuing to plummet in cost and is the cheapest of all now

太陽能的成本持續下降

是目前最便宜的一種

because the cost of making the solar panels and the windmills

因為製造太陽能板和風車的成本

continues to come down.

持續地下降

By the way, the famous coal museum in Kentucky

順便一提，肯州的煤炭博物館

just installed solar panels on its roof

為了節省營運預算

in order to save in its operating budget.

剛完成屋頂太陽能板的安裝

(Applause)

（掌聲）

Now we're getting battery storage.

目前正在進行的電池儲能

I’ll rescale this graph to show you the predicted emergence

我用調整後的圖表展示預測的緊急狀況

of a new one-trillion-dollar industry in the next few decades

這是未來幾十年內

營利高達一兆美元的新興行業

and green hydrogen on top of that.

還有附帶而來的綠氫

The car batteries are getting cheaper

車用電池隨著需求的增加

as demand continues to increase.

越來越便宜

And within less than two years in some model categories,

不到兩年的時間內

某些電動車型號

the EVs will be cheaper

會比內燃機引擎汽車更便宜

than their internal combustion engine counterparts

and within four years in all model categories.

四年內會成為最便宜的汽車

So, the oil and gas industry

十年多來的石油和天然氣業

has been the worst investment in global markets for more than a decade,

始終是全球市場最不利的一項投資

while the clean energy companies are really becoming more profitable.

乾淨能源公司反而更有利可圖

Now the oil and gas companies say

石油和天然氣公司說

that they're going to invest a lot more in renewables and CCS.

他們要把更多投資

注入再生能源和碳捕集與封存上

Yes, it’s the fastest-growing --

是的，它的成長速度最快

they’ve tripled their investments all the way up to four percent.

他們的投資增加了兩倍

達到百分之四的比例

Ninety-six percent of the money they’re spending

他們仍把 96% 的花費

is still going into oil and gas and coal.

用在石油、天然氣和煤炭上

(Applause)

（掌聲）

The impression they've given us is not an honest impression,

他們給我們不誠實的印象

not for the first time.

這並非初犯

And they're telling a different story to Wall Street.

他們提供給華爾街一套不同的說詞

They still have planes, trains, a few automobiles and ships,

他們還有飛機、火車、汽車和輪船

but they're telling Wall Street and financial markets

但卻對華爾街和金融市場說

they're going to make it up in plastics,

他們要用第三大油化市場

75% 的塑膠業來彌補

which is 75 percent of their third-largest market,

petrochemicals.

How's that working out for us?

這會對我們有什麼影響？

Not so well.

恐怕並不樂觀

Banning single-use plastics is one of the many things that we have to do.

禁用一次性塑膠產品

是百廢待舉的項目之一

We have to shift to sustainability.

我們必須轉移到永續的發展

And here's the good news,

好消息是

the sustainability revolution is the single biggest business opportunity

永續性革命是世界史上

最大的單一商機

in the history of the world.

It has the scale of the industrial revolution

它具有工業革命的規模

coupled with the speed of the digital revolution.

並結合了數位革命的速度

And what we're seeing is that we have to seize this opportunity,

呈現在我們眼前的

是我們必須把握這個機會

but we need reforms in the current version of capitalism.

我們需要改革現行的資本主義

Capitalism does a lot of things great.

資本主義有它偉大的貢獻

It balances supply and demand and allocates resources efficiently

它促成了供求的平衡

有效地進行資源的分配

and often unlocks a higher fraction of the human potential.

也經常開啟人類大量的潛能

And by the way, the alternatives on the left and right

順便一提的是左右兩派

在 20 世紀輪流施政

explored in the 20th century didn't work out very well.

並沒有產生良好的效果

But in order to see how we need to change capitalism,

但要看見改變資本主義的需要

we have to pull out our focus.

我們必須把焦點拉出來

And let me present an analogy.

讓我打個比喻吧

The electromagnetic spectrum from the long radio waves

長無線電波到短伽瑪射線的電磁頻譜

to the short gamma rays and all the things in between,

以及介於其中的所有東西

the portion of visible light that we can see with our eyes

肉眼能看到的可見光部分

makes up only 0.1 percent of the total.

只佔總數的 0.1%

For the eight years I worked in the White House,

我在白宮工作的八年期間

I got a daily report from the intelligence community

每天都收到情報界

that collected from all parts of the spectrum,

從頻譜各部分收集到的報告

and it was a much more accurate picture.

這是一張比較準確的照片

Here's the analogy.

這是它的類比

The value spectrum is something we too frequently look at

價值範圍是我們經常透過

through the very narrow aperture of short-term profits

太過狹窄的短期利益光圈

for one stakeholder, the shareholders.

為一個利害關係人或股東看到的東西

But this leaves out negative externalities,

但它遺漏了負外部性

as the economists call them, like the pollution.

正如經濟學家說的像污染一樣

That's why we need a price on carbon and a price on plastic pollution.

這就是要為碳和塑膠污染定價的原因

It also leaves out positive externalities.

它也遺漏正外部性

So we’re chronically underinvesting in education and health care

我們在教育、醫療保健

環保和疫情準備上長期投資不足

and environmental protection, pandemic preparedness.

We're ignoring the depletion of resources like topsoil

我們忽略了資源的耗盡問題

例如表土和地下含水層

and underground water aquifers.

And we’re ignoring the distribution of incomes and net worths

忽略了收入和淨資產的分配

to the point where one percent of the people

以至於有 1% 的人

have almost half of the world's wealth.

擁有世界近半數的財富

That's one of the other factors that's driving populist authoritarianism.

這是驅動民粹威權主義的因素之一

We have to take account of the environmental effects

我們必須考量環境的影響

and the effects on people and their families

以及對個人和家庭的影響

and the communities where they live

以及他們居住的社區

and the communities in their supply chain

供應鏈中的社區

and the ethics in the C-suites.

以及高管理階層的倫理

And we have to realize that hyper inequality

我們必須體認那種極度的不平等

is a threat to both capitalism and to democracy.

是對資本主義和民主的威脅

There is an emergent form called multistakeholder capitalism,

多利害關係人資本主義的突現形式

and it is driving a lot of new decisions.

正在推動許多新的決策

For example, in asset management,

例如，在資產管理

almost half of all the assets in the world under management

投資組合管理界中

are now in portfolios committed to net-zero.

有一半的資產致力於淨零目標

One reason is that the Paris Agreement set the direction of travel,

原因之一是《巴黎協定》設定的方向

where every country in the world committed to net-zero.

讓全世界每一個國家都致力於淨零

So just last May,

去年的五月

the G7 nations banned financing of coal plants overseas.

G7 國禁止對海外煤電廠融資

And just three weeks ago, China did, which is good,

中國在三星期前做到了

這是好事一樁

because they were financing most of them.

因為他們融資給大部分的煤電廠

I hope that they will cut down on the coal chain

我希望他們也會縮減

in China domestically as well.

國內煤炭鏈的融資

And now more than half of all the greenhouse gas emissions

如今，有一半以上的溫室氣體排放

and two thirds of global GDP

和全球 GDP 的 2/3

is coming from countries that have set net-zero targets.

來自設定淨零目標的國家

So here's the hope.

這就是我們的希望

Once we reach net-zero,

一旦達到淨零目標

then with a lag time of as little as three to five years,

只要 3-5 年的延遲時間

the temperatures in the world will stop going up.

世界的溫度就會停止上升

And once we reach net-zero within as little as 25 to 30 years,

達到淨零目標後的 25-30 年內

half of the human-caused CO2 will fall out of the atmosphere.

半數人為產生的二氧化碳

就會脫離大氣層

It is as if we have a switch

這就像手上握了一個開關

that we can flip in order to stop the climate crisis.

只要按個鈕就能停止氣候危機

Regrettably, some damage has been done,

遺憾的是，損害已經造成了

but we can stop the temperatures from going up

但我們有能力停止溫度的上升

and start the healing process.

並啟動癒合的過程

But we all have to flip this switch

但我們必須按下

known as reaching net-zero.

這個叫做淨零的開關

The young people are telling us that we have to,

年輕人告訴我們必須這麼做

and they're marching in every country in the world.

他們正在世界各國遊行

And what's the response?

我們的回應是什麼？

As recently as this morning we heard,

今天早上我們才聽說

"Well, it may be impossible."

「這也許不可能。」

Well, it's not impossible.

不是不可能

Nelson Mandela said, “It always seems impossible until it’s done.”

曼德拉說：「坐而不行一事無成。」

That's what they told the abolitionists.

他們對廢奴主義者也這麼說

"It's impossible to eliminate slavery."

「廢奴是不可能的。」

That's what they told the women's suffragettes.

也對婦女參政權這麼說

"It's impossible to have equal rights for women."

「婦女平權是不可能的。」

In the civil rights movement in my country

美國的民權運動

and the anti-apartheid movement in South Africa and more recently,

南非的反種族隔離運動

以及近期的男女同性戀解放運動

the lesbian and gay liberation and equal rights movement.

與平權運動

We can do this.

我們做得到

This is the biggest emergent social movement in all of history.

這是史上最大規模的社會緊急運動

We can do this.

我們做得到

And if anybody thinks that we don't have the political will,

如果有人懷疑我們的政治決心

remember, political will is itself a renewable resource.

切記，政治決心本身

就是一種再生資源

Thank you very much.

非常感謝你們

(Cheers and applause)

（歡呼和掌聲）

Thank you.

謝謝大家