The Blind Spots of the Green Energy Transition | Olivia Lazard | TED

Prevodilac: Milenka Okuka Lektor: Ivana Korom

Hi.

Zdravo.

It's about as intimidating as I thought it would be.

Otprilike sam i zamišljala da je ovako strašno.

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

And yet you’d think or I’d think

A ipak, pomislili biste ili bih ja pomislila

that I'd be accustomed to more stressful situations.

da sam se navikla na stresnije situacije.

You see, I work in international security and in conflict resolution.

Vidite, radim u međunarodnoj bezbednosti i razrešavanju konflikata.

And today, I'm here to talk about some of our blind spots

A danas sam ovde da govorim o nekim od slepih mrlja

related to decarbonization.

u vezi sa dekarbonizacijom.

Now, what does one have to do with the other, you may ask.

Sad, pitate se kakve veze ima jedno s drugim.

Good question.

Dobro pitanje.

We often hear that a climate-safe future is a necessary condition for peace.

Često čujemo da je klimatski bezbedna budućnost nužan preduslov za mir.

That's true.

To je tačno.

We also often hear that renewables could be the energy of peace.

Takođe često čujemo da je obnovljiva energija energija mira.

Less true.

To je manje tačno.

To understand, I need to tell you about the materials that we need

Kako biste razumeli, moram da vam govorim o materijalima koji su nam potrebni

in order to decarbonize.

da bismo postigli dekarbonizaciju.

They're pretty.

Lepi su.

And they can be deadly.

I potencijalno smrtonosni.

Looking into their story tells us that confronting conflict

Sagledavanje njihove priče nam saopštava da će suočavanje sa konfliktom

and building new forms of international peace

i izgradnja novih oblika međunarodnog mira

are going to be critical foundations to build a climate-safe future.

biti krucijalni temelji izgradnje klimatski bezbedne budućnosti.

So let me tell you about them,

Dozvolite da vam govorim o njima,

starting with where we stand now.

započinjući sa trenutnom situacijom.

When we talk about a decarbonized future,

Kada govorimo o budućnosti bez ugljenika,

we generally have in mind the possibility of decoupling economic growth

uopšteno imamo na umu mogućnost razjedinjavanja ekonomskog rasta

from greenhouse gas emissions.

i emisija gasova staklene bašte.

That’s what we call “green growth.”

To nazivamo „zelenim rastom”.

What we tend to think about less often is that to get there

Ono o čemu ređe razmišljamo je da bismo to postigli

we need to recouple economic growth with intensive mineral extraction.

moramo da ujedinimo ekonomski rast i intezivno iskopavanje minerala.

To harness renewables or renewable energy like the sun and the wind,

Kako bismo upregli obnovljivu energiju, poput sunca ili vetra,

we obviously need to build technologies such as solar panels,

očito moramo da gradimo tehnologije poput solarnih panela,

windmills, batteries, right?

vetrenjača, baterija, je li tako?

And to build those,

A da bismo ih izgradili,

we need to mine huge quantities of non-renewable materials

moramo da rudarimo ogromne količine neobnovljivih materijala

such as these.

poput ovih.

Knowing that it takes mines as big as these

Znajući da su potrebni ovoliki rudnici

to produce that much amount of usable material.

da bi se proizvela ovolika količina upotrebljivog materijala.

Our ticket to green growth, in other words,

Naša ulaznica za zeleni rast, drugim rečima,

is digging deep in the environment.

je zadiranje duboko u životnu sredinu.

Now we know that mining can have grave impacts

Znamo da rudarenje može da ima ozbiljan uticaj

for local ecosystems and populations.

na lokalne ekosisteme i populacije.

I’ve seen it myself, and it really isn’t pretty.

I sama sam se uverila u to, i zaista nije lep prizor.

But what I want to talk about today

Danas pak želim da govorim

is about how much and where we’re going to have to dig,

o tome koliko i gde ćemo morati da kopamo,

and what that means for planetary security and for geopolitics.

kao i šta to znači za planetarnu bezbednost i geopolitiku.

I'll start from there.

Započeću odavde.

History tells us

Istorija nas uči

that when the dominant source of energy changes,

da kada se dominantni izvor energije promeni,

power relations change as well.

menjaju se i odnosi snaga.

Countries that can transform energy to their own advantage,

Države koje mogu da transformišu energiju u sopstvenu prednost,

can gain the upper hand economically and politically,

mogu da obezbede prednost ekonomski i politički,

and then can put themselves at the center of the global order.

i time se mogu smestiti u središte globalnog poretka.

Think of the United Kingdom and coal, for instance,

Na primer, setite se Ujedinjenog Kraljevstva i uglja

or how oil determined the ascendance of the US to a global superpower.

ili kako je nafta odredila uspon SAD-a do globalne supersile.

What that tells us is that the access to

To nam govori da se dostupnost

and processing of energy

i prerada energije

literally materializes into the ability to shape geopolitical power dynamics.

bukvalno materijalizuju u sposobnost oblikovanja geopolitičke dinamike moći.

And today,

A danas

we're facing the challenge of implementing the biggest energy transition

smo suočeni sa izazovom sprovođenja najveće energetske tranzicije

in the history of humankind

u istoriji čovečanstva

under a ticking climate clock.

dok klimatski sat otkucava.

The race is on for a new generation of power.

U toku je trka za novim izvorima energije.

At the heart of which you have all of the critical materials

U čijem središtu imate sve ključne materijale

that we need to decarbonize on the one hand

koji su nam potrebni za dekarbonizaciju s jedne strane

and digitalize on the other.

i digitalizaciju s druge strane.

So what's happening with them?

Dakle, šta se dešava s njima?

On the demand side we're at the beginning of an exponential demand curve.

Sa stanovišta potražnje, na početku smo eksponencijalne krive potražnje.

If you take lithium as a proxy, a key component for [batteries],

Ukoliko uzmete litijum kao predstavnika, a to je ključni deo baterija,

global production already increased by just short of 300 percent

globalna proizvodnja se već uvećala za skoro 300 procenata

between 2010 and 2020.

između 2010 i 2020.

I'm going to pause here for a sec.

Zaustaviću se ovde za sekund.

This is really good news.

Ovo su uistinu dobre vesti.

It means that decarbonization is in motion.

Znači da je dekarbonizacija u toku.

The not so good news is that our "clean" future

Ne tako dobre vesti su da će naša „čista” budućnost

is going to be more materially intensive than before.

zahtevati još intenzivniju upotrebu materijala.

If you take a simple measure for it,

Ako uzmete prosto merilo za to,

the International Energy Agency tells us

Međunarodna agencija za energetiku nam kaže

that with the current level of innovation,

da sa trenutnim nivoom inovacija,

an electric car requires six times more mineral inputs

električni automobil zahteva šest puta više mineralnih komponenti

than a conventional car.

od tradicionalnog automobila.

And this is only the start.

A ovo je tek početak.

The World Bank tells us that with the current projections,

Svetska banka nam kaže da će se uz trenutne projekcije,

global production for minerals such as graphite and cobalt

globalna proizvodnja minerala, poput grafita i kobalta,

will increase by 500 percent by 2050,

uvećati za 500 procenata do 2050,

only to meet the demand for clean energy technologies.

samo da bi zadovoljila potražnju tehnologija čiste energije.

Now let's look on the supply side.

Osmotrimo sad ponudu.

That's where a lot of really interesting things are happening.

Tu se dešava mnogo uistinu zanimljivih stvari.

Who currently exploits and processes minerals

Ko trenutno eksploatiše i obrađuje minerale

and where deposits to meet future demand are located

i gde su smeštene zalihe koje će zadovoljiti potražnju u budućnosti

tell us exactly how the transition is going to change geopolitics.

nam saopštava tačno kako će tranzicija izmeniti geopolitiku.

So if you look at a material such as lithium,

Ako posmatrate materijal poput litijuma,

countries like Chile and Australia tend to dominate extraction

države poput Čilea i Australije dominiraju iskopavanjem,

while China dominates processing.

dok Kina dominira obradom.

For cobalt, the Democratic Republic of Congo dominates extraction

Za kobalt, Demokratska Republika Kongo dominira iskopavanjem,

while China dominates processing.

dok Kina dominira obradom.

For nickel,

Za nikl,

countries like Indonesia and the Philippines

države poput Indonezije i Filipina

tend to dominate extraction,

dominiraju iskopavanjem,

while China, you guessed it, thank you,

dok Kina, pogodili ste, hvala,

dominates processing.

dominira obradom.

And for rare earths,

A za retke metale,

China dominates extraction while China dominates processing.

Kina dominira iskopavanjem, dok Kina dominira obradom.

I've just said China a lot, didn't I?

Upravo sam mnogo puta izgovorila reč Kina, zar ne?

Well, that's because China skillfully leveraged

To je zato što je Kina vešto iskoristila

its geo-economic rise to power over the last two decades

svoj geoekonomski uspon u protekle dve decenije

on the back of integrating supply chains for rare earths

potpomognuvši se integracijom lanaca nabavke retkih metala

from extraction to processing to export.

od iskopavanja i obrade do izvoza.

We tend to point fingers at China today

Trenutno često upiremo prstom u Kinu

for not going fast enough on its own domestic energy transition,

što nije dovoljno brza u sopstvenoj domaćoj energetskoj tranziciji,

but the truth is that China understood already long ago

međutim, istina je da je Kina odavno shvatila

that it would play a central role in other countries' transitions.

da će igrati središnju ulogu u tranziciji drugih država,

And it is.

I ima tu ulogu.

The European Union, for instance,

Evropska unija, na primer,

is 98 percent dependent on China for rare earths.

kada su retki metali u pitanju zavisi 98 procenata od Kine.

Needless to say,

Suvišno je reći

this puts China in a prime position to redesign the global balance of power.

da ovo smešta Kinu na glavno mesto preoblikovanja globalnog odnosa moći.

Now, you may argue that this is a good thing

Sad, možete tvrditi da je ovo dobro

because the global balance of power needs a rehaul anyway.

jer je globalnom odnosu moći i tako potreban remont.

And you know what?

I znate šta?

I can totally roll with that.

Nemam ništa protiv toga.

But -- and this applies to China, the United States,

Međutim - a ovo se odnosi na Kinu, Sjedinjene Države,

and any other big player --

i bilo kog drugog velikog igrača -

we need to make sure that the redesigning process

moramo da se postaramo da proces preoblikovanja

doesn't compromise on human rights or open societies.

ne ugrozi ljudska prava i otvorena društva.

And that it doesn't lead to the weaponization of supply chains

I da ne dovede do korišćenja lanaca nabavke kao oružja

at a time of international instability, and more importantly,

u vremenu međunarodne nestabilnosti, i što je još važnije,

at a time of complete climate breakdown.

u vremenu potpunog klimatskog kolapsa.

Unfortunately, we're already seeing signs of this happening.

Nažalost, već vidimo znakove da se ovo dešava.

China is currently trying to gain access to more mineral resources

Kina trenutno pokušava do obezbedi pristup dodatnim mineralnim resursima

through its Belt and Road Initiative.

kroz inicijativu Pojas i put.

The United States and Europe

Sjedinjene Države i Evropa

are both thinking of reshoring critical mining

razmišljaju o vraćanju kući ključnih rudarenja

and processing

i obrade

and orienting some of their international partnerships

i usmeravaju neka od svojih međunarodnih partnerstava

to facilitate access to more mineral resources.

kako bi olakšali pristup dodatnim mineralnim resursima.

Japan is exploring some of its oceanic marine reserves

Japan istražuje neke od svojih okeanskih pomorskih rezervi

to build strategic reserves.

kako bi gradio strateške rezerve.

I'm also speaking in the shadow of a war on the European continent.

Takođe govorim u senci rata na evropskom kontinentu.

Now at first sight,

Sad, na prvi pogled,

Russia's invasion of Ukraine has nothing to do with what I've been talking about.

ruska invazija Ukrajine nema nikakve veze sa onim o čemu sam govorila.

But Ukraine happens to be mineral rich.

Međutim, ispostavlja se da je Ukrajina bogata mineralima.

It also happens to be one of only two countries

Takođe se ispostavlja da je jedna od svega dve države

that had struck a partnership with the European Union

koje su ostvarile partnerstvo sa Evropskom unijom

to diversify and develop supply chains for critical raw materials.

radi diversifikacije i razvoja lanaca nabavke ključnih sirovina.

That partnership was specifically designed to help the EU decarbonize

To partnerstvo je naročito osmišljeno da pomogne EU da se dekarbonizuje

and in the process to better integrate with Ukraine

i, u procesu, da se bolje integriše sa Ukrajinom

from a political and economic perspective.

s političkog i ekonomskog stanovišta.

Eight months after the partnership was struck,

Osam meseci nakon postignutog partnerstva,

the invasion took place.

došlo je do invazije.

Now, mineral resources may not explain everything about the war.

Mineralni resursi možda ne mogu da objasne sve u vezi s ratom.

But they certainly can't be ignored in analyzing the events.

Svakako da se ipak ne mogu ignorisati u analizi događaja.

Because when it comes to the race for critical raw materials,

Jer kad se radi o trci za ključnim sirovinama,

what's actually happening

ono što se zapravo dešava

is that we're headed right back into a new scramble for resources,

je da smo se zaputili u novo osvajanje resursa,

at the heart of which you find all of the big players

u čijem ćete središtu zateći sve velike igrače

eyeing countries with vast mineral deposits.

kako vrebaju države sa ogromnim mineralnim zalihama.

And yet it's so obvious many of these countries that are located,

Ipak, očigledno je da je većina ovih država smeštena

for the most part, in Africa,

većim delom u Africi,

in Latin America, in Central Asia and in the Indo-Pacific.

Latinskoj Americi, Centralnoj Aziji i Indo-Pacifiku.

Economists will tell you that this is a great thing,

Ekonomisti će vam reći kako je to sjajna stvar

because these countries, or at least a lot of them,

jer su ovim državama, ili bar mnogim od njih,

need economic resources and many,

potrebni ekonomski resursi i to u izobilju

to accelerate their development pathway and climate adaptation.

kako bi ubrzale stazu razvoja i klimatske adaptacije.

But.

Međutim.

Many of these countries also have very real overlapping risk profiles.

Mnoge od ovih država takođe imaju veoma stvarne preklapajuće profile rizika.

The International Institute for Sustainable Development

Međunarodni institut za održivi razvoj

first produced this map back in 2018.

je prvi put napravio ovu kartu još 2018.

Can you see the green dots on the map?

Vidite li zelene tačke na karti?

They represent all of the different materials

Predstavljaju sve različite materijale

that we need in order to decarbonize,

koji su nam potrebni za dekarbonizaciju,

their geographic location and their deposit size.

njihovu geografsku lokaciju i količine njihovih zaliha.

As it so happens, a lot of the deposits are located in countries

Kao što je slučaj, veći deo zaliha je smešten u državama

that rank fairly high on corruption indices.

koje se rangiraju visoko na indeksima korupcije.

They are represented essentially by the shades of brown and red on the map.

U suštini su predstavljene nijansama smeđe i crvene na karti.

And as it so happens,

I kao što je slučaj,

a lot of the materials are also located in countries that are fragile,

većina materijala se takođe nalazi u državama koje su krhke,

such as Sri Lanka,

poput Šri Lanke,

or downright conflict affected, like Myanmar

ili onim bukvalno pogođenim konfliktom, poput Mjanmara

and the Central African Republic.

i Centralnoafričke Republike.

That's not all.

To nije sve.

The Notre Dame Institute tells us, with this map,

Institut Notr Dam nam sopštava ovom kartom,

in which you see, again, some red and orange,

na kojoj opet vidite nešto crvene i narandžaste

that countries that are climate vulnerable

da države koje su osetljive na klimatske promene

are also the ones that are resource endowed.

su takođe one koje su obdarene resursima.

And one final thing.

I poslednja stvar.

You know those big ecosystems that we need to protect and regenerate

Znate one velike ekosisteme koje moramo da zaštitimo i obnovimo

in order to stabilize the global climate regime?

kako bismo stabilizovali režim globalne klime?

To reboot the hydrological cycle

Kako bismo obnovili hidrološki ciklus

and to protect biodiversity?

i zaštitili biodiverzitet?

They're also represented in orange and red on this map.

I oni su predstavljeni narandžastom i crvenom bojom na karti.

Many of these big ecosystems are located in the same fragile countries

Većina ovih velikih ekosistema je smeštena u istim krhkim državama

that I was mentioning before.

koje sam prethodno spominjala.

They also happen to sit on vast mineral deposits.

Dešava se da se i oni nalaze na ogromnim zalihama minerala.

Changing or eliminating these ecosystems

Izmena ili eliminacija ovih ekosistema

through mining, through deforestation or anything else

putem rudarenja, krčenja šuma ili bilo čega drugog

would undermine planetary security.

bi ugrozila planetarnu bezbednost.

Not just international security.

Ne samo međunarodnu bezbednost.

Planetary security.

Planetarnu bezbednost.

It's essentially like a perfect storm in the making.

U suštini je poput savršene oluje u nastajanju.

Corruption,

Korupcija,

institutional and socioeconomic fragility,

institucionalna i socioekonomska krhkost,

climate disruptions and environmental plundering,

izmena klime i ekološka pohara,

all acting as a backdrop

sve deluje kao kulisa

to a competition to gain access to the minerals

za nadmetanje za dobijanje pristupa mineralima

that we need in order to decarbonize.

koji su nam potrebni za dekarbonizaciju.

All of these factors will be magnified

Svi će ovi faktori biti naglašeni,

if we don't rein in the scramble for resources.

ukoliko ne obuzdamo trku za osvajanjem resursa.

All of them will reinforce one another.

Svi ovi faktori će učvršćivati jedni druge.

And I want to make something very clear here.

I želim da ovde razjasnim jednu stvar.

The countries at the heart of the resource scrambling

Države u središtu osvajanja resursa

may suffer the most direct consequences

bi mogle najdirektnije da ispaštaju

in terms of their ability to develop, to adapt to climate change

u smislu sposobnosti razvoja i adaptacije klimatskim promenama

and to avoid violence.

kao i izbegavanju nasilja.

But their fate is not isolated.

Njihova sudbina ipak nije izolovana.

Their problems are not geographically distant.

Njihovi problemi nisu geografski udaljeni.

Our big blind spot here

Naša velika slepa mrlja ovde

is that we're headed towards a decarbonization trajectory

je da smo na putu trajektorije dekarbonizacije

that may end up undermining ecological integrity

koja bi mogla na kraju da podrije ekološki integritet

and heighten the risks of conflict and insecurity

i da uveća rizike od konflikta i nesigurnosti

whose consequences would reverberate worldwide.

čije bi se posledice osetile u čitavom svetu.

I know that this is not a particularly encouraging picture.

Zam da ovo nije naročito ohrabrujuća slika.

And that it comes on top of layers of pictures

I da dolazi povrh slojeva slika

that are not particularly encouraging.

koje nisu naročito ohrabrujuće.

Our modern economies have advanced and grown for two centuries

Naše savremene ekonomije su napredovale i rasle tokom dva veka

through the gigantic blind spot of fossil fuel exploitation

kroz džinovske slepe mrlje eksploatacije fosilnih goriva

and its unintended consequences.

i njenih neželjenih posledica.

The big lesson here

Veliko naravoučenije ovde

is that we can't afford to just shift to a different set of energies,

je da ne možemo priuštiti puki prelaz na drugačiji skup energija,

technologies and materials

tehnologija i materijala,

without paying attention to the unintended consequences.

bez obraćanja pažnje na neželjene posledice.

The stakes are too high.

Ulog je suviše velik.

They involve our future.

Uključuje našu budućnost.

That we know.

To nam je poznato.

But they also involve our humanity.

Takođe uključuje našu čovečnost.

And they involve our nature,

I uključuje našu prirodu,

by which I mean the nature that we choose for ourselves.

pod kojom podrazumevam prirodu koju biramo za sebe.

Decarbonization is the way forward.

Dekarbonizacija jeste put napred.

There’s not one single doubt allowedd about this.

Ne sme biti ni trunke sumnje povodom toga.

But the way forward also demands of us

Međutim, put napred takođe od nas zahteva

that we start imagining our future beyond decarbonization already.

da već počnemo da zamišljamo našu budućnost izvan dekarbonizacije.

Remember what I said at the beginning?

Sećate se šta sam rekla na početku?

A climate-safe future is a necessary condition for peace.

Klimatski bezbedna budućnost je neophodan preduslov za mir.

But we won't achieve a climate-safe future without peace.

Međutim, nećemo postići klimatski bezbednu budućnost bez mira.

And to build peace,

A da bismo izgradili mir,

we need to shake things up in international politics

moramo da uzburkamo stvari u međunarodnoj politici

and in the way that we do business and economics.

i u načinu na koji se bavimo poslovanjem i ekonomijom.

So where do we start?

Dakle, odakle da počnemo?

I'd like to offer the scaffolding of a plan in four different baskets.

Želela bih da ponudim kostur plana u četiri različite oblasti.

First, science.

Prvo, nauka.

Science can tell us exactly where it is safe to mine and where it isn't,

Nauka nam može reći tačno gde je bezbedno rudariti, a gde nije

from an ecological perspective.

sa ekološkog stanovišta.

Where it is not safe to mine,

Gde nije bezbedno rudariti,

we need to act as though these minerals did not exist

moramo da se pretvaramo da ti minerali ne postoje

and establish protected areas

i moramo utvrditi zaštićena područja

under which no mining licensing can take place.

na kojima se ne mogu dobiti dozvole za rudarenje.

Where mining does take place,

Gde se rudarenje odvija,

we can integrate socioeconomic

možemo integrisati socioekonomsku

and ecological regeneration within business models.

i ekološku obnovu unutar poslovnih modela.

Second, a global public good regime.

Drugo, globalni režim javnog dobra.

If decarbonization is a matter of human survival,

Ako je dekarbonizacija pitanje ljudskog opstanka,

then the materials that we need in order to decarbonize

onda bi materijalima koji su nam potrebni za dekarbonizaciju

should be managed collectively under a global public good regime.

trebalo da se upravlja kolektivno pod globalnim režimom javnog dobra.

The alternative is conflict and planetary breakdown.

Alternativa je konflikt i planetarni kolaps.

So while we figure out exactly how to design this regime,

Dok ne otkrijemo tačno kako da osmislimo ovaj režim,

the countries at the heart of the scramble for resources

države koje su u središtu osvajanja resursa

should receive adequate support,

bi trebalo da dobiju odgovarajuću podršku,

competent and coherent support

kompetentnu i koherentnu podršku

to face off the joint challenges of geopolitical competition

kako bi se suočile sa zajedničkim izazovima geopolitičkog nadmetanja

and climate disruptions on the other hand.

i klimatskih poremećaja, s druge strane.

In other words, investing into conflict resolution,

Drugim rečima, ulaganje u rešavanje konflikata,

into the fight against corruption

borbu protiv korupcije

and into context-specific resilience,

i otpornost u specifičnim kontekstima

should be top priorities of our global energy transition.

bi trebalo da budu prioriteti naše globalne energetske tranzicije.

Third,

Treće,

changing the way that we do business and economics.

izmena načina na koji se bavimo poslovanjem i ekonomijom.

We can't just switch from one energy system to another.

Ne možemo samo da se prebacimo s jednog energetskog sistema na drugi.

I've made that pretty clear, right?

To sam prilično pojasnila, zar ne?

What we need instead

Umesto toga nam je potrebno

is to reduce our need for energy and for materials.

da umanjimo našu potrebu za energijom i materijalima.

And that starts with massive public and private investments

A to otpočinje ogromnim javnim i privatnim ulaganjima

into circular economic models

u cirkularne ekonomske modele

that favor recyclability and material substitution.

koji favorizuju reciklažu i zamenu materijala.

Now, here's the thing.

Evo o čemu se radi.

We know that this is a necessary step,

Znamo da je ovo nužan korak,

but not a sufficient one.

ali da nije dovoljan.

So what we also need to do

Stoga takođe moramo

is to develop ecological assessments for supply chains

da razvijemo ekološke procene lanaca nabavki

that account for greenhouse gas emissions,

koji uzimaju u obzir emisiju gasova staklene bašte,

but also for water, soil, biodiversity, material

all i vodu, zemljište, biodiverzitet, materijale

and energy footprint all at once.

i energetski otisak istovremeno.

Only on this all-encompassing basis

Samo na ovoj sveobuhvatnoj osnovi

will we understand how supply and distribution chains need to change

ćemo razumeti kako se lanci nabavke i distribucije moraju izmeniti

and therefore how globalization needs to transform.

i samim tim kako se globalizacija mora transformisati.

Fourth,

Četvrto,

innovation.

inovacija.

All of this can only happen

Sve ovo može da se desi

if we start shifting our thinking about innovation.

ukoliko počnemo da menjamo način razmišljanja o inovaciji.

Innovation in our times

Inovacija u našem vremenu

is about bringing back economic footprint within planetary boundaries.

znači vraćanje ekološkog otiska unutar planetarnih ograničenja.

Anything else, even the coolest of new products,

Sve ostalo, čak i naši najizuzetniji novi proizvodi,

if it isn't aligned with that goal, it's not innovation,

ukoliko nisu u skladu s tim ciljem, ne radi se o inovaciji.

it's business as usual.

Radi se o rađenju po starom.

In our little corner of the world,

U našem malom kutku sveta,

my team and I at Carnegie Europe have been working really hard

moja ekipa i ja sa evropskog Karnegija smo vredno radili

to identify what regenerative foreign policy looks like

da odredimo kako bi regenerativna spoljna politika izgledala

and what it aims for.

i čemu bi težila.

There are two things that we know by now.

Dve stvari su nam zasad poznate.

One is obvious, we need to tackle fundamental issues

Jenda je očita, moramo da se bavimo temeljnim pitanjima

around economic redistribution on a global scale.

u vezi sa ekonomskom distribucijom na globalnim razmerama.

The other thing is that we need a geopolitical de-escalation

Druga stvar je da nam je potrebna geopolitička deeskalacija

around decarbonisation and regeneration.

u vezi sa dekarbonizacijom i regeneracijom.

We've translated that into a concept we've called ecological diplomacy.

Preveli smo to u koncept koji nazivamo ekološkom diplomatijom.

And we're pushing really hard for the European Union

I snažno pritiskamo Evropsku uniju

to adopt this framework within their foreign policy.

da usvoji ovaj okvir unutar svoje spoljne politike.

Because if there is one thing that we've understood,

Jer ako smo nešto shvatili

it's that ecological integrity is the foundation

to je da je ekološki integritet temelj

for all types of security.

za sve vidove bezbednosti.

Which makes it the one common denominator

A to je jedan zajednički činilac

that we can work on rebuilding collectively.

na čijoj izgradnji možemo da radimo kolektivno.

And we can manage.

I možemo uspeti.

Truly, I believe that we can.

Uistinu verujem da možemo.

As long as we shed light on our transition blind spots

Dokle god osvetljavamo naše slepe mrlje tranzicije

and take them as our guiding companions

i koristimo ih kao vodiče

to identify what truly systemic,

za prepoznavanje kako istinski sistemske,

truly peaceful

istinski mirne

and truly safe solution pathways look like

i istinski bezbedne staze rešenja izgledaju

for the age of climate-disrupted futures.

u razdoblju klimatski narušenih budućnosti.

Thank you so much.

Mnogo vam hvala.

(Applause)

(Aplauz)