The Blind Spots of the Green Energy Transition | Olivia Lazard | TED

翻译人员: YX D 校对人员: suya f.

Hi.

大家好

It's about as intimidating as I thought it would be.

感觉和我想象中一样吓人啊

(Laughter)

（笑声）

And yet you’d think or I’d think

不要说你们，我都以为

that I'd be accustomed to more stressful situations.

我能适应更令人紧张的环境

You see, I work in international security and in conflict resolution.

因为我就从事国际安全和解决冲突的工作

And today, I'm here to talk about some of our blind spots

今天，我在这里谈谈我们的一些盲点

related to decarbonization.

关于脱碳的盲点

Now, what does one have to do with the other, you may ask.

现在你可能想问， 这和我的工作内容之间有什么关系

Good question.

好问题

We often hear that a climate-safe future is a necessary condition for peace.

我们常常听到这样的言论： 一个气候安全的未来是和平的必要条件

That's true.

确实是这样

We also often hear that renewables could be the energy of peace.

我们也常常听到可循环能源是和平的活力

Less true.

这就不那么准确了

To understand, I need to tell you about the materials that we need

为了更好理解，大家要知道， 我们需要做什么

in order to decarbonize.

才能完成脱碳这一目标

They're pretty.

这个目标很美好

And they can be deadly.

也很致命

Looking into their story tells us that confronting conflict

这个故事将会告诉我们面对冲突

and building new forms of international peace

以及建立全新形式的国际和平

are going to be critical foundations to build a climate-safe future.

对于创建一个气候安全的未来有多么重要

So let me tell you about them,

让我为你们介绍一下

starting with where we stand now.

从我们所处的当下说起

When we talk about a decarbonized future,

当我们谈论脱碳的未来时

we generally have in mind the possibility of decoupling economic growth

我们脑海里的大致印象中

from greenhouse gas emissions.

温室气体排放和经济发展是脱钩的

That’s what we call “green growth.”

这就是我们所说的“绿色发展”

What we tend to think about less often is that to get there

我们很容易忽视要达成这个目的的过程

we need to recouple economic growth with intensive mineral extraction.

但我们需要将经济增长 和密集采矿再度链接

To harness renewables or renewable energy like the sun and the wind,

想要利用像太阳能， 风能这样的可再生能源

we obviously need to build technologies such as solar panels,

我们必须发展制造太阳能电池板的技术

windmills, batteries, right?

发展用风车发电的技术

And to build those,

为了达到这样的目的

we need to mine huge quantities of non-renewable materials

我们需要大量开采不可再生资源

such as these.

诸如此类。

Knowing that it takes mines as big as these

需要开采这么多的不可再生资源

to produce that much amount of usable material.

才能获得的这么多的可再生材料

Our ticket to green growth, in other words,

那么，我们达成 绿色发展的可能性，换句话说

is digging deep in the environment.

就是在自然界深挖。

Now we know that mining can have grave impacts

我们现在知道开采矿产影响巨大

for local ecosystems and populations.

当地的生态系统和人口都会收到影响

I’ve seen it myself, and it really isn’t pretty.

我亲眼目睹过那并不是 什么令人开心的场景

But what I want to talk about today

但我今天想要说的是

is about how much and where we’re going to have to dig,

我们到底要深挖到什么地步， 我们的方向又在哪里

and what that means for planetary security and for geopolitics.

这对于我们的行星安全 和地缘政治意味着什么

I'll start from there.

我将从这里展开

History tells us

历史告诉我们

that when the dominant source of energy changes,

能源的主导变化的时候

power relations change as well.

国家关系也随之改变

Countries that can transform energy to their own advantage,

能把能源转化为自身优势的国家

can gain the upper hand economically and politically,

能在经济和政治上占得上风

and then can put themselves at the center of the global order.

并形成自己为中心的全球体系

Think of the United Kingdom and coal, for instance,

就比如说英国和煤矿

or how oil determined the ascendance of the US to a global superpower.

或是原油如何决定了 美国登顶成为世界超级大国

What that tells us is that the access to

对能源的使用权

and processing of energy

以及加工权

literally materializes into the ability to shape geopolitical power dynamics.

真切地成为了能够动摇、 重塑地缘政治的权力

And today,

今天

we're facing the challenge of implementing the biggest energy transition

我们面临的能源变化之巨

in the history of humankind

在人类史上从未曾有过

under a ticking climate clock.

在气候时钟的滴答声中

The race is on for a new generation of power.

人类面临新一代的权力竞争

At the heart of which you have all of the critical materials

在这个竞争的中心包括了所有重要的能源

that we need to decarbonize on the one hand

我们一方面需要用它们达成脱碳

and digitalize on the other.

一方面要将它们数码化

So what's happening with them?

所以它们会怎么样呢

On the demand side we're at the beginning of an exponential demand curve.

在需求方面 我们处于 指数需求曲线的起点

If you take lithium as a proxy, a key component for [batteries],

以锂为代表

global production already increased by just short of 300 percent

全球产量增长已经接近300%

between 2010 and 2020.

这是2010-2020之间的数据。

I'm going to pause here for a sec.

我要暂停一下

This is really good news.

真是一个好消息

It means that decarbonization is in motion.

这也意味着脱碳进展的停滞

The not so good news is that our "clean" future

这个消息就不怎么好了

is going to be more materially intensive than before.

“清洁“未来里的材料密集 程度将会超过以往任何时候。

If you take a simple measure for it,

简单来说，

the International Energy Agency tells us

国际能源组织告诉我们

that with the current level of innovation,

以目前的创新水平

an electric car requires six times more mineral inputs

电动汽车所需的矿物质投入

than a conventional car.

是传统汽车的六倍

And this is only the start.

而这仅仅是一个开始

The World Bank tells us that with the current projections,

世界银行告诉我们根据目前的预测

global production for minerals such as graphite and cobalt

全球矿产生产例如石墨和钴

will increase by 500 percent by 2050,

到2050年将增加500%

only to meet the demand for clean energy technologies.

而这仅仅为了满足清洁能源技术的需求。

Now let's look on the supply side.

再来看看供应方面。

That's where a lot of really interesting things are happening.

许多非常有趣的事情在这里发生

Who currently exploits and processes minerals

目前谁在开采和加工矿物

and where deposits to meet future demand are located

能够满足未来需求的矿藏又在哪里

tell us exactly how the transition is going to change geopolitics.

能源转型究竟将会如何影响地缘政治

So if you look at a material such as lithium,

观察锂矿资源 你会发现

countries like Chile and Australia tend to dominate extraction

智利和澳大利亚等国家 倾向于主导开采

while China dominates processing.

而中国主导加工

For cobalt, the Democratic Republic of Congo dominates extraction

钴矿资源由刚果主导开采

while China dominates processing.

而中国主导加工。

For nickel,

对镍矿资源，

countries like Indonesia and the Philippines

印度尼西亚等国家和菲律宾

tend to dominate extraction,

倾向于主导开采，

while China, you guessed it, thank you,

而中国，你猜对了，谢谢参与，

dominates processing.

主导加工。

And for rare earths,

对稀土资源，

China dominates extraction while China dominates processing.

中国主导开采同时主导加工。

I've just said China a lot, didn't I?

我刚刚说了很多次中国是不是？

Well, that's because China skillfully leveraged

这是因为中国很好地利用了

its geo-economic rise to power over the last two decades

自身的地缘经济崛起

on the back of integrating supply chains for rare earths

在过去的二十年里， 在整合稀土供应链的背后

from extraction to processing to export.

从开采到加工再到出口。

We tend to point fingers at China today

我们往往指责中国

for not going fast enough on its own domestic energy transition,

说他们国内能源转型的速度慢

but the truth is that China understood already long ago

但事实是，中国早就明白了

that it would play a central role in other countries' transitions.

他们将在其他国家的能源 转型中发挥核心作用

And it is.

中国也做到了

The European Union, for instance,

就拿欧盟来说

is 98 percent dependent on China for rare earths.

他们98% 的稀土资源依赖中国进口。

Needless to say,

不用说

this puts China in a prime position to redesign the global balance of power.

这使得中国在全球力量 再平衡中占据主要位置

Now, you may argue that this is a good thing

你可能会认为这是一件好事

because the global balance of power needs a rehaul anyway.

因为这场再平衡无论 如何都需要一场革新。

And you know what?

你知道吗？

I can totally roll with that.

我完全能够理解。

But -- and this applies to China, the United States,

但是，对于中国，美国

and any other big player --

以及任何其它大国都一样

we need to make sure that the redesigning process

我们需要确保这个过程

doesn't compromise on human rights or open societies.

不会危害人权或开放社会

And that it doesn't lead to the weaponization of supply chains

也不会导致供应链武器化

at a time of international instability, and more importantly,

在国际局势动荡之际 更重要的是

at a time of complete climate breakdown.

在这个气候完全崩溃的时代。

Unfortunately, we're already seeing signs of this happening.

不幸的是，我们已经 看到这种情况发生的迹象

China is currently trying to gain access to more mineral resources

中国目前正试图获得更多矿产资源

through its Belt and Road Initiative.

通过“一带一路”倡议

The United States and Europe

美国和欧洲

are both thinking of reshoring critical mining

都在考虑回流关键采矿

and processing

以及矿产加工

and orienting some of their international partnerships

还有确定一些国际伙伴关系

to facilitate access to more mineral resources.

以便获得更多矿产资源

Japan is exploring some of its oceanic marine reserves

日本正在探索自己的一些海洋保护区

to build strategic reserves.

用以建立战略保护

I'm also speaking in the shadow of a war on the European continent.

我的发言也笼罩在 欧洲大陆战争的阴影下

Now at first sight,

一开始

Russia's invasion of Ukraine has nothing to do with what I've been talking about.

俄罗斯入侵乌克兰与我所说的这些无关

But Ukraine happens to be mineral rich.

但乌克兰恰好矿产丰富

It also happens to be one of only two countries

它也恰好是仅有的两个国家之一

that had struck a partnership with the European Union

与欧盟建立伙伴关系

to diversify and develop supply chains for critical raw materials.

以实现关键原材料的供应链多样化和发展

That partnership was specifically designed to help the EU decarbonize

这种伙伴关系是专为帮助欧盟脱碳设计的

and in the process to better integrate with Ukraine

在这个过程中，欧盟与乌克兰的关系

from a political and economic perspective.

从政治和经济的角度来看，也愈加紧密

Eight months after the partnership was struck,

八个月后 伙伴关系敲定

the invasion took place.

战争爆发

Now, mineral resources may not explain everything about the war.

矿产资源可能无法解释关于战争的一切

But they certainly can't be ignored in analyzing the events.

但在分析事件时，它们不可忽视

Because when it comes to the race for critical raw materials,

因为一旦涉及原材料之争

what's actually happening

在背后的是

is that we're headed right back into a new scramble for resources,

是我们又一次进入了新的资源争夺战

at the heart of which you find all of the big players

在战争的中心，你会发现 所有的重量级玩家

eyeing countries with vast mineral deposits.

都紧盯着矿藏丰富的国家

And yet it's so obvious many of these countries that are located,

而且很明显，这些国家中

for the most part, in Africa,

许多都位于非洲

in Latin America, in Central Asia and in the Indo-Pacific.

拉丁美洲、中亚以及印太地区

Economists will tell you that this is a great thing,

经济学家告诉你这是一件好事

because these countries, or at least a lot of them,

因为这些国家全部，或者大部分

need economic resources and many,

都需要经济资源

to accelerate their development pathway and climate adaptation.

来加快他们的发展速度， 以及应对气候变化。

But.

但是，

Many of these countries also have very real overlapping risk profiles.

其中许多国家事实上也面对重重风险

The International Institute for Sustainable Development

国际可持续发展研究所

first produced this map back in 2018.

在2018年首次发表了这张地图

Can you see the green dots on the map?

你能看到地图上绿色等待点吗

They represent all of the different materials

这代表不同的资源

that we need in order to decarbonize,

都可以被用来脱碳

their geographic location and their deposit size.

它们的地理位置以及矿藏规模

As it so happens, a lot of the deposits are located in countries

碰巧的是，许多矿藏所在的国家

that rank fairly high on corruption indices.

在腐败指数上排名都相当高

They are represented essentially by the shades of brown and red on the map.

他们在地图上由棕色和红色阴影表示

And as it so happens,

说起来，

a lot of the materials are also located in countries that are fragile,

很多资源都位于国力薄弱的国家

such as Sri Lanka,

比如斯里兰卡

or downright conflict affected, like Myanmar

或者国内极其混乱，例如缅甸

and the Central African Republic.

和中非共和国。

That's not all.

不仅如此

The Notre Dame Institute tells us, with this map,

诺特丹大学用这张地图告诉我们

in which you see, again, some red and orange,

在这张地图上，人们 又一次地看到红色和橘色

that countries that are climate vulnerable

它们代表气候脆弱国家

are also the ones that are resource endowed.

也是资源丰富国家

And one final thing.

最后一点

You know those big ecosystems that we need to protect and regenerate

你知道那些需要保护和再生

in order to stabilize the global climate regime?

以稳定全球气候制度的那些 大生态系统吗？

To reboot the hydrological cycle

用来重启水文循环

and to protect biodiversity?

和保护生物多样性的大生态系统

They're also represented in orange and red on this map.

它们在这张地图上也以橙色和红色表示

Many of these big ecosystems are located in the same fragile countries

许多这样的大生态系统 位于同一个脆弱国家

that I was mentioning before.

就是我之前提到过的

They also happen to sit on vast mineral deposits.

它们也恰好坐落在巨大的矿藏上

Changing or eliminating these ecosystems

改变或毁灭这些生态系统

through mining, through deforestation or anything else

通过采矿，滥伐森林 或者其他任何方式

would undermine planetary security.

会破坏地球的安全

Not just international security.

不仅仅是国际安全

Planetary security.

行星安全

It's essentially like a perfect storm in the making.

它实际上就像一场酝酿中的风暴。

Corruption,

腐败，

institutional and socioeconomic fragility,

体制和社会经济的脆弱，

climate disruptions and environmental plundering,

气候破坏和环境掠夺

all acting as a backdrop

都充当了这场竞争的背景

to a competition to gain access to the minerals

获取矿产资源

that we need in order to decarbonize.

来达到脱碳

All of these factors will be magnified

这些都将被放大

if we don't rein in the scramble for resources.

如果我们们不控制对资源的争夺

All of them will reinforce one another.

这些都是相辅相成的

And I want to make something very clear here.

我想明确一点

The countries at the heart of the resource scrambling

处于争夺中心的国家

may suffer the most direct consequences

将会面临最直接的后果

in terms of their ability to develop, to adapt to climate change

不管是发展能力和应对 气候变化的能力都是如此

and to avoid violence.

包括避免暴力也是一样

But their fate is not isolated.

但这些国家的命运也将是所有人的命运

Their problems are not geographically distant.

在地理上这些出现这种 问题的国家相距不远

Our big blind spot here

我们的盲点是

is that we're headed towards a decarbonization trajectory

我们正走向一个脱碳轨迹

that may end up undermining ecological integrity

这个轨迹最终可能会破坏生态完整性

and heighten the risks of conflict and insecurity

并加剧动荡和不安的风险

whose consequences would reverberate worldwide.

其后果将影响全世界

I know that this is not a particularly encouraging picture.

我知道这不是一个多么令人高兴的前景

And that it comes on top of layers of pictures

而它将是我们要首先面对的未来

that are not particularly encouraging.

这实在令人沮丧

Our modern economies have advanced and grown for two centuries

我们的现代经济已经发展了两个世纪

through the gigantic blind spot of fossil fuel exploitation

通过化石燃料开采的巨大盲点

and its unintended consequences.

以及意料之外的后果

The big lesson here

这里的重要教训

is that we can't afford to just shift to a different set of energies,

是在能源转型中， 我们不能仅仅转向不同的能源

technologies and materials

科技和资源

without paying attention to the unintended consequences.

而不思考可能造成的后果

The stakes are too high.

这其中的风险太大了

They involve our future.

与我们的未来息息相关

That we know.

我们很清楚

But they also involve our humanity.

这与我们的人性也息息相关

And they involve our nature,

与我们的本性紧密相连

by which I mean the nature that we choose for ourselves.

我的意思是，我们所选择的本性

Decarbonization is the way forward.

脱碳是我们前进的方向

There’s not one single doubt allowedd about this.

这一点不容置疑

But the way forward also demands of us

但前进的道路也要求我们

that we start imagining our future beyond decarbonization already.

想象达成脱碳之后的未来

Remember what I said at the beginning?

还记得我开头所说的吗

A climate-safe future is a necessary condition for peace.

一个气候安全的未来是和平的重要条件

But we won't achieve a climate-safe future without peace.

一个气候安全的未来也必须通过和平达成

And to build peace,

为了守护和平

we need to shake things up in international politics

我们需要改变国际政治的现状

and in the way that we do business and economics.

以及我们发展商业和经济的方式

So where do we start?

从哪里开始呢

I'd like to offer the scaffolding of a plan in four different baskets.

我想提议一个计划的支架， 以四个方面来说明

First, science.

首先是科技

Science can tell us exactly where it is safe to mine and where it isn't,

科学可以准确地告诉 我们哪里可以安全开采

哪里开采不安全

from an ecological perspective.

从生态学的角度

Where it is not safe to mine,

开采不安全的地方

we need to act as though these minerals did not exist

我们就当那些矿产不存在

and establish protected areas

并建立保护区

under which no mining licensing can take place.

这样，这里就不会有 任何人有权进行开采

Where mining does take place,

那些能开采的地方

we can integrate socioeconomic

我们将整合社会经济

and ecological regeneration within business models.

和生态再生到商业模式中

Second, a global public good regime.

第二，全球公共物品制度

If decarbonization is a matter of human survival,

如果脱碳关乎人类存亡

then the materials that we need in order to decarbonize

那么我们所需要用以脱碳的资源

should be managed collectively under a global public good regime.

应该在全球公共物品制度下统一管理

The alternative is conflict and planetary breakdown.

不然就会产生冲突，以及地球崩溃

So while we figure out exactly how to design this regime,

所以当我们明确如何设计这个制度，

the countries at the heart of the scramble for resources

处于资源争夺中心的国家

should receive adequate support,

应该得到足够的支持

competent and coherent support

充足且持续的支持

to face off the joint challenges of geopolitical competition

来应对地缘政治竞争的共同挑战

and climate disruptions on the other hand.

以及另一方面，面对的气候破坏。

In other words, investing into conflict resolution,

换句话说，投资解决冲突

into the fight against corruption

打击腐败

and into context-specific resilience,

以及具体的恢复能力

should be top priorities of our global energy transition.

应该是全球能源转型的首要任务。

Third,

第三，

changing the way that we do business and economics.

改变我们发展商业和经济的方式。

We can't just switch from one energy system to another.

我们不能简单地从一种 能源体系切换到另一种能源体系。

I've made that pretty clear, right?

这一点已经说的很明白了，对吗？

What we need instead

相反，我们需要的是

is to reduce our need for energy and for materials.

减少对能源和材料的需求。

And that starts with massive public and private investments

首先是进行大量公共和私人投资

into circular economic models

让资金流入循环经济模型

that favor recyclability and material substitution.

发展可回收性和材料替代的。

Now, here's the thing.

事情是这样的。

We know that this is a necessary step,

我们知道这是一个必要步骤

but not a sufficient one.

但它并不充分。

So what we also need to do

我们还需要

is to develop ecological assessments for supply chains

制定供应链的生态评估

that account for greenhouse gas emissions,

考虑温室气体排放·

but also for water, soil, biodiversity, material

同时考虑水、土壤、生物多样性

and energy footprint all at once.

材料和能源足迹。

Only on this all-encompassing basis

只有在全面考虑的基础上

will we understand how supply and distribution chains need to change

我们才能理解供应链 和分销链应当如何改变

and therefore how globalization needs to transform.

以及未来全球化需要如何转型。

Fourth,

第四，

innovation.

创新。

All of this can only happen

一切的前提

if we start shifting our thinking about innovation.

就是转变我们原先 对于创新的理解和看法。

Innovation in our times

这个时代的创新

is about bringing back economic footprint within planetary boundaries.

是在地球行星边界内恢复经济足迹。

Anything else, even the coolest of new products,

其他任何事情，即使是最酷的新产品

if it isn't aligned with that goal, it's not innovation,

如果不符合这个目标， 那就不是真正的创新

it's business as usual.

而是旧酒换新瓶

In our little corner of the world,

在这个星球上，我们的小小角落里

my team and I at Carnegie Europe have been working really hard

就职于卡内基国际和平基金会的我 和我的团队，正在绞尽脑汁

to identify what regenerative foreign policy looks like

研究到底怎样的外交政策 有利资源循环再生

and what it aims for.

以及它的目的是什么

There are two things that we know by now.

我们现在已经得知以下两点

One is obvious, we need to tackle fundamental issues

一，很明显，我们需要

around economic redistribution on a global scale.

在全球范围内解决经济 再分配中的核心问题

The other thing is that we need a geopolitical de-escalation

二，我们需要

around decarbonisation and regeneration.

在脱碳和再生能源方面进行地缘政治降级

We've translated that into a concept we've called ecological diplomacy.

我们已经将其转化为一种 我们称之为生态外交的概念

And we're pushing really hard for the European Union

我们也正在努力推动欧盟

to adopt this framework within their foreign policy.

在外交政策中采用这一理念

Because if there is one thing that we've understood,

如果说我们明白一件事

it's that ecological integrity is the foundation

那就是生态完整

for all types of security.

是所有安全的基础

Which makes it the one common denominator

我们可以以此为基点

that we can work on rebuilding collectively.

共同致力于重建

And we can manage.

我们能做到

Truly, I believe that we can.

我发自内心地认为我们可以

As long as we shed light on our transition blind spots

只要我们不忽视转变中的盲点

and take them as our guiding companions

把它们当作指引的伙伴

to identify what truly systemic,

来寻找真正有序的

truly peaceful

真正和平的

and truly safe solution pathways look like

真正安全的方式

for the age of climate-disrupted futures.

应对气候严峻的未来

Thank you so much.

非常感谢。

(Applause)

（掌声）