The Blind Spots of the Green Energy Transition | Olivia Lazard | TED

譯者: Lilian Chiu 審譯者: Shelley Tsang 曾雯海

Hi.

嗨。

It's about as intimidating as I thought it would be.

站在這果然跟我想像的一樣可怕。

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

And yet you’d think or I’d think

但，各位會認為，或我自己會認為，

that I'd be accustomed to more stressful situations.

我應該很習慣有壓力的情境。

You see, I work in international security and in conflict resolution.

因為我的工作是國際安全和衝突解決。

And today, I'm here to talk about some of our blind spots

今天，

我要來談談我們有哪些 和脫碳相關的盲點。

related to decarbonization.

Now, what does one have to do with the other, you may ask.

各位可能會問，兩者有什麼關係？

Good question.

好問題。

We often hear that a climate-safe future is a necessary condition for peace.

我們常常聽到，

氣候安全的未來是和平的必備條件。

That's true.

是真的。

We also often hear that renewables could be the energy of peace.

我們也常常聽到，再生能源 可能會是和平的能源。

Less true.

沒那麼真。

To understand, I need to tell you about the materials that we need

要了解這點，

我得告訴各位脫碳所需要的材料。

in order to decarbonize.

They're pretty.

它們很漂亮，也可能很致命。

And they can be deadly.

Looking into their story tells us that confronting conflict

探究它們的故事 能告訴我們，正面面對衝突

and building new forms of international peace

以及建立新型態的國際和平，

are going to be critical foundations to build a climate-safe future.

對於打造氣候安全的未來， 會是很關鍵的基礎。

So let me tell you about them,

所以，我就來談談它們， 從我們的現況開始。

starting with where we stand now.

When we talk about a decarbonized future,

當我們談到脫碳的未來時，

一般來說，我們會想到的是 有可能讓經濟成長不再連結到

we generally have in mind the possibility of decoupling economic growth

from greenhouse gas emissions.

溫室氣體排放。

That’s what we call “green growth.”

那就是我們所謂的「綠色成長」。

What we tend to think about less often is that to get there

我們通常比較少會去思考， 為了達成這個目標，

we need to recouple economic growth with intensive mineral extraction.

我們得讓經濟成長重新連結上

密集的礦物開採。

To harness renewables or renewable energy like the sun and the wind,

若要利用可再生能源， 如太陽和風力，

we obviously need to build technologies such as solar panels,

很明顯我們會需要建造 一些技術，如太陽能板、

windmills, batteries, right?

風車、電池，對吧？

And to build those,

要建造它們，

we need to mine huge quantities of non-renewable materials

我們需要開採大量的

非可再生物質，如這些。

such as these.

Knowing that it takes mines as big as these

要知道，要像這麼大的礦山

to produce that much amount of usable material.

才能產生出足量的可用材料。

Our ticket to green growth, in other words,

換言之，我們通往綠色成長的門票，

is digging deep in the environment.

就是消耗更多環境資源。

Now we know that mining can have grave impacts

我們知道採礦對於當地的生態系統 和居民會有重大的衝擊。

for local ecosystems and populations.

I’ve seen it myself, and it really isn’t pretty.

我親眼見過，真是慘不忍睹。

But what I want to talk about today

但，今天我想談的，

is about how much and where we’re going to have to dig,

是我們必須要挖多少、挖什麼地方，

and what that means for planetary security and for geopolitics.

以及那對於地球的安全 及地緣政治有什麼意涵。

I'll start from there.

我就從這裡說起。

History tells us

歷史告訴我們，當能源的 主要來源改變時，

that when the dominant source of energy changes,

power relations change as well.

權力關係也會改變。

Countries that can transform energy to their own advantage,

能將能源轉換成自身優勢的國家

can gain the upper hand economically and politically,

在經濟上和政治上都能佔上風，

and then can put themselves at the center of the global order.

並能讓自己成為全球秩序的中心。

Think of the United Kingdom and coal, for instance,

比如，可以想想看英國和煤，

or how oil determined the ascendance of the US to a global superpower.

或者石油如何讓美國登上 全球超級強權的位子。

What that tells us is that the access to

那告訴我們，能夠取得和擁有能源，

and processing of energy

literally materializes into the ability to shape geopolitical power dynamics.

就等同於有能力可以形塑

地緣政治的權力動態。

And today,

現今，

we're facing the challenge of implementing the biggest energy transition

我們面臨的挑戰是，

在氣候危機的時間壓力下

in the history of humankind

under a ticking climate clock.

進行人類史上最重大的能源轉換。

The race is on for a new generation of power.

新世代權力的角力賽已經展開。

At the heart of which you have all of the critical materials

這場角力賽的核心，

就是要邊脫碳邊數位化

that we need to decarbonize on the one hand

and digitalize on the other.

所需要的重要資源。

So what's happening with them?

所以這些資源的狀況如何？

On the demand side we're at the beginning of an exponential demand curve.

在需求面上，

我們正處在急速成長的開端。

If you take lithium as a proxy, a key component for [batteries],

拿鋰作例子，它是電池的關鍵元素，

global production already increased by just short of 300 percent

從 2010 年到 2020 年，

between 2010 and 2020.

鋰的全球產量已經增加了近 300%，

I'm going to pause here for a sec.

我要在這裡停一下。

This is really good news.

這是很好的消息。

It means that decarbonization is in motion.

這表示脫碳已經開始進行了。

The not so good news is that our "clean" future

不太好的消息則是， 我們的「乾淨」未來，

is going to be more materially intensive than before.

材料密集的程度會更甚以往。

If you take a simple measure for it,

用個簡單的方式衡量，

the International Energy Agency tells us

國際能源署告訴我們，

that with the current level of innovation,

依目前的創新度，

an electric car requires six times more mineral inputs

電動車所需要投入的礦物 比傳統汽車多六倍。

than a conventional car.

And this is only the start.

且這才是開端。

The World Bank tells us that with the current projections,

世界銀行告訴我們，

依照目前的預測，

global production for minerals such as graphite and cobalt

礦物的全球生產量，如石墨及鈷，

will increase by 500 percent by 2050,

到 2050 年時會增加 500%，

only to meet the demand for clean energy technologies.

這還只是要滿足乾淨能源技術的需求。

Now let's look on the supply side.

接著來談談供應面。

That's where a lot of really interesting things are happening.

這裡面有許多有趣的狀況。

Who currently exploits and processes minerals

目前誰在開採和加工礦物

and where deposits to meet future demand are located

以及滿足未來需求礦床的位置

tell us exactly how the transition is going to change geopolitics.

能告訴我們這次能源轉型 會如何改變地緣政治。

So if you look at a material such as lithium,

以鋰為例，

countries like Chile and Australia tend to dominate extraction

智利和澳洲等國主宰了開採，

while China dominates processing.

而中國主宰了加工。

For cobalt, the Democratic Republic of Congo dominates extraction

至於鈷，則是剛果

主宰了開採，

while China dominates processing.

中國則是主宰了加工。

For nickel,

至於鎳，

countries like Indonesia and the Philippines

印尼及菲律賓等國

tend to dominate extraction,

主宰了開採，而……

while China, you guessed it, thank you,

中國，你猜對了，謝謝，

dominates processing.

主宰了加工。

And for rare earths,

至於稀土元素，

China dominates extraction while China dominates processing.

中國主宰了開採，

中國也主宰了加工。

I've just said China a lot, didn't I?

我說了好多次中國，對吧？

Well, that's because China skillfully leveraged

因為中國在過去二十年間

its geo-economic rise to power over the last two decades

整合了稀土元素

on the back of integrating supply chains for rare earths

從開採、加工到出口的供應鏈，

from extraction to processing to export.

藉此之力登上地緣經濟的強權地位。

We tend to point fingers at China today

現今我們通常會指責中國自己 國內的能源轉換做得不夠快，

for not going fast enough on its own domestic energy transition,

but the truth is that China understood already long ago

但事實上，中國很早以前就了解到

that it would play a central role in other countries' transitions.

它會在其他國家的能源 轉型中扮演中心角色。

And it is.

事實確實如此。

The European Union, for instance,

以歐盟為例，

is 98 percent dependent on China for rare earths.

其稀土元素有 98% 都仰賴中國。

Needless to say,

更不用說，

this puts China in a prime position to redesign the global balance of power.

這讓中國在操控全球 權力平衡上佔有重要地位。

Now, you may argue that this is a good thing

各位可能會說，這是好事，

because the global balance of power needs a rehaul anyway.

因為全球權力平衡 本來就需要徹底改變。

And you know what?

你猜怎磨著？我完全不反對。

I can totally roll with that.

But -- and this applies to China, the United States,

但是，

不管是中國、美國，及任何大玩家，

and any other big player --

we need to make sure that the redesigning process

我們得要確保權力重新洗牌的過程

doesn't compromise on human rights or open societies.

不會在人權或開放社會上讓步。

And that it doesn't lead to the weaponization of supply chains

且它不能造成供應的武力化，

at a time of international instability, and more importantly,

不論是在國際不穩定的 時候，或，更重要地，

at a time of complete climate breakdown.

在氣候完全崩壞的時候。

Unfortunately, we're already seeing signs of this happening.

不幸的是，

我們已經看到徵兆了。

China is currently trying to gain access to more mineral resources

中國目前在試圖透過 其「一帶一路倡議」

through its Belt and Road Initiative.

取得更多礦物資源。

The United States and Europe

美國和歐洲

are both thinking of reshoring critical mining

都在考慮要將重要的採礦及加工

and processing

重新回歸自己國家，

and orienting some of their international partnerships

並將它們的一些國際合作關係

to facilitate access to more mineral resources.

導向更容易取得更多礦物資源的國家。

Japan is exploring some of its oceanic marine reserves

日本正在探勘它的一些

海洋石油儲備，

to build strategic reserves.

以建造戰略石油儲備。

I'm also speaking in the shadow of a war on the European continent.

我在演說的同時，歐洲大陸 正在戰爭的危險之下。

Now at first sight,

乍看之下，

Russia's invasion of Ukraine has nothing to do with what I've been talking about.

俄羅斯入侵烏克蘭 和我剛才所說毫無關係。

But Ukraine happens to be mineral rich.

但是，

烏克蘭剛好有豐富的礦藏。

It also happens to be one of only two countries

只有它和另一個國家

that had struck a partnership with the European Union

和歐盟建立了合作關係，

to diversify and develop supply chains for critical raw materials.

針對重要的原料，使供應鏈 更多樣化並開發供應鏈。

That partnership was specifically designed to help the EU decarbonize

該合作關係

很明確是設計來協助歐盟脫碳，

and in the process to better integrate with Ukraine

並在過程中和烏克蘭

from a political and economic perspective.

從政治及經濟角度做更好的整合。

Eight months after the partnership was struck,

合作關係建立的八個月後，

the invasion took place.

俄羅斯入侵了。

Now, mineral resources may not explain everything about the war.

這場戰爭或許無法完全 用礦物資源來解釋，

But they certainly can't be ignored in analyzing the events.

但在分析這些事件時， 肯定不能忽略這個因素。

Because when it comes to the race for critical raw materials,

因為，談到重要原料的競賽，

what's actually happening

實際的狀況是，

is that we're headed right back into a new scramble for resources,

我們又走上回頭路， 展開新的資源搶奪戰，

at the heart of which you find all of the big players

在搶奪戰的核心，是所有的大玩家

eyeing countries with vast mineral deposits.

覬覦著有廣大礦床的國家。

And yet it's so obvious many of these countries that are located,

但，很明顯，這些國家 許多都位在……

for the most part, in Africa,

主要在非洲、

in Latin America, in Central Asia and in the Indo-Pacific.

在南美、在中亞、 在印度洋—太平洋區域。

Economists will tell you that this is a great thing,

經濟學家會告訴你，這樣很棒，

because these countries, or at least a lot of them,

因為這些國家，至少其中的大部分，

need economic resources and many,

需要大量的經濟資源，

to accelerate their development pathway and climate adaptation.

才能加速它們的發展之路 以及氣候適應。

But.

但是，

Many of these countries also have very real overlapping risk profiles.

當中有許多國家的 風險概況都很相似。

The International Institute for Sustainable Development

國際永續發展研究所

first produced this map back in 2018.

在 2018 年初次製作出了這張地圖。

Can you see the green dots on the map?

各位可以看到地圖上的綠點嗎？

They represent all of the different materials

它們代表的是脫碳 所需要的各種不同材料，

that we need in order to decarbonize,

their geographic location and their deposit size.

以及這些材料的位置和礦床的大小。

As it so happens, a lot of the deposits are located in countries

好巧不巧，

許多這些礦床所在的國家

that rank fairly high on corruption indices.

都有名列前茅的腐敗指數。

They are represented essentially by the shades of brown and red on the map.

就是在地圖上呈現褐色和紅色的區塊。

And as it so happens,

剛好，

a lot of the materials are also located in countries that are fragile,

這些材料大部分也位在

像斯里蘭卡這類脆弱的國家中，

such as Sri Lanka,

or downright conflict affected, like Myanmar

甚或像緬甸及中非共和國 這類受軍事衝突影響的國家中。

and the Central African Republic.

That's not all.

還沒完呢。

The Notre Dame Institute tells us, with this map,

聖母大學用這張地圖告訴我們什麼？

in which you see, again, some red and orange,

在地圖上可以看到 紅色和橘色的區塊

that countries that are climate vulnerable

是很容易受氣候影響的國家，

are also the ones that are resource endowed.

但也同樣是資源豐富的國家。

And one final thing.

最後一點。

You know those big ecosystems that we need to protect and regenerate

各位知道我們為了穩定全球氣候秩序

in order to stabilize the global climate regime?

而必須要保護和重建的大生態系統嗎？

To reboot the hydrological cycle

這攸關啟水文循環的重啟

and to protect biodiversity?

並將保護生物多樣性。

They're also represented in orange and red on this map.

這些生態系統也是這張地圖上 紅色和橘色的部分。

Many of these big ecosystems are located in the same fragile countries

這些大型生態系統有許多

都位在我剛才提到的脆弱國家，

that I was mentioning before.

They also happen to sit on vast mineral deposits.

也剛好就坐落在蘊藏豐富的礦床上。

Changing or eliminating these ecosystems

改變或消滅這些生態系統，

through mining, through deforestation or anything else

不論是因為採礦、砍伐森林等等，

would undermine planetary security.

都會破壞地球的安全；

Not just international security.

不只是國際安全，

Planetary security.

而是地球的安全。

It's essentially like a perfect storm in the making.

基本上，這就像是 完美風暴的醞釀階段。

Corruption,

腐敗、

institutional and socioeconomic fragility,

制度上和社會經濟上的脆弱、

climate disruptions and environmental plundering,

氣候混亂及環境掠奪，

all acting as a backdrop

這些都在醞釀著

to a competition to gain access to the minerals

為了取得脫碳所需礦物資源 的一場爭奪戰。

that we need in order to decarbonize.

All of these factors will be magnified

這些因素全都會更加重，

除非我們能控制好資源的爭奪。

if we don't rein in the scramble for resources.

All of them will reinforce one another.

它們全都會彼此強化。

And I want to make something very clear here.

有件事我要說清楚。

The countries at the heart of the resource scrambling

位在資源爭奪戰核心的國家， 可能會要承受最直接的後果，

may suffer the most direct consequences

in terms of their ability to develop, to adapt to climate change

影響到它們發展 和適應氣候變遷的能力，

and to avoid violence.

以及避免暴力的能力。

But their fate is not isolated.

但是它們的命運和我們是相連的。

Their problems are not geographically distant.

它們的問題在地理上離我們並不遙遠。

Our big blind spot here

這裡，我們最大的盲點是， 在朝脫碳前進的軌跡上，

is that we're headed towards a decarbonization trajectory

that may end up undermining ecological integrity

我們也危害了生態的健全，

and heighten the risks of conflict and insecurity

並提高衝突的風險及不安全感，

whose consequences would reverberate worldwide.

其後果會蔓延到全世界。

I know that this is not a particularly encouraging picture.

我知道這不是很鼓舞人心的景象。

And that it comes on top of layers of pictures

且它背後還是一層又一層 不很鼓舞人心的景象。

that are not particularly encouraging.

Our modern economies have advanced and grown for two centuries

兩世紀以來，我們的 現代經濟不斷進步及成長，

through the gigantic blind spot of fossil fuel exploitation

靠的是大量濫用化石燃料，

卻胃液料到不經意造成的後果。

and its unintended consequences.

The big lesson here

這裡有很重要的一課：

is that we can't afford to just shift to a different set of energies,

我們沒有本錢，不能只是 轉換成另一組不同的能源、

technologies and materials

技術，和材料，而不去注意

without paying attention to the unintended consequences.

不經意造成的後果。

The stakes are too high.

賭注太大了。

They involve our future.

賭注涉及到我們的未來。

That we know.

這點我們知道。

But they also involve our humanity.

但也涉及到我們的人性，

And they involve our nature,

以及我們的本性，

by which I mean the nature that we choose for ourselves.

我所指的，是我們 為自己選擇的本性。

Decarbonization is the way forward.

脫碳是條向前邁進的路。

There’s not one single doubt allowedd about this.

這點無庸置疑。

But the way forward also demands of us

但向前邁進的路也需要我們

that we start imagining our future beyond decarbonization already.

開始以超越脫碳的思維 想像我們的未來。

Remember what I said at the beginning?

記得我一開始時說的嗎？

A climate-safe future is a necessary condition for peace.

氣候安全的未來， 是和平的必要條件之一。

But we won't achieve a climate-safe future without peace.

但若沒有和平，我們也無法 達成氣候安全的未來。

And to build peace,

要建立和平，

we need to shake things up in international politics

我們得要在國際政治上做出改變，

and in the way that we do business and economics.

也要改變我們做生意 和發展經濟的方式。

So where do we start?

所以，我們要從何做起？

I'd like to offer the scaffolding of a plan in four different baskets.

我想提供一個計畫的架構， 從四個面向來說：

First, science.

第一，科學。

Science can tell us exactly where it is safe to mine and where it isn't,

科學能從生態的觀點告訴我們

在哪裡採礦是安全的、哪裡不是。

from an ecological perspective.

Where it is not safe to mine,

對於採礦不安全的地方，

we need to act as though these minerals did not exist

我們得當作那些礦物根本不存在，

and establish protected areas

並設立保護區域，

under which no mining licensing can take place.

不得核發任何在區域內的採礦許可。

Where mining does take place,

對於在採礦的地方，

we can integrate socioeconomic

我們可以整合社會經濟

and ecological regeneration within business models.

以及生態再生，放入商業模型中。

Second, a global public good regime.

第二，

好的全球公共制度。

If decarbonization is a matter of human survival,

如果脫碳和人類存亡息息相關，

then the materials that we need in order to decarbonize

那麼我們脫碳需要的材料 應該被一起集體管理，

should be managed collectively under a global public good regime.

用一個好的全球公共制度來管理。

The alternative is conflict and planetary breakdown.

若不這麼做，結果就是 衝突以及地球崩壞。

So while we figure out exactly how to design this regime,

當我們還在想到底 要如何設計這個制度時，

the countries at the heart of the scramble for resources

身在資源搶奪戰 中心的國家應該要得到

should receive adequate support,

適當的支援，

competent and coherent support

充份且一致的支援，

to face off the joint challenges of geopolitical competition

才能對抗地緣政治競爭 及另一方面的氣候破壞

and climate disruptions on the other hand.

加乘起來的挑戰。

In other words, investing into conflict resolution,

換言之，投資在衝突的解決方案上，

into the fight against corruption

投資在對抗腐敗的抗爭上，

and into context-specific resilience,

以及情境明確的恢復力上，

should be top priorities of our global energy transition.

應該是全球能源轉換的首要任務。

Third,

第三，

changing the way that we do business and economics.

改變我們做生意和發展經濟的方式。

We can't just switch from one energy system to another.

我剛才已清楚說明過我們不能單純 從一種能源系統換到另一種。

I've made that pretty clear, right?

What we need instead

反之，我們需要的，

is to reduce our need for energy and for materials.

是減少我們對能源及材料的需求。

And that starts with massive public and private investments

這就要始於將大量的公共資金 和私人資金投入循環經濟模型，

into circular economic models

that favor recyclability and material substitution.

且是提倡可回收性 及材料取代的模型。

Now, here's the thing.

重點是，

We know that this is a necessary step,

我們知道這是必要的一步，

but not a sufficient one.

但這一步還不夠。

So what we also need to do

我們還需要做的

is to develop ecological assessments for supply chains

是要針對供應鏈來開發生態評估，

that account for greenhouse gas emissions,

評估時要考量到溫室氣體排放，

but also for water, soil, biodiversity, material

但還有水、土壤、生物多樣性，

材料，以及能源足跡都要一起考量。

and energy footprint all at once.

Only on this all-encompassing basis

唯有在這種無所不包的基礎上，

will we understand how supply and distribution chains need to change

我們才能夠了解供應 及配送鏈需要怎麼改變，

and therefore how globalization needs to transform.

接著才能了解要如何 轉變全球化的方式。

Fourth,

第四，

innovation.

創新。

All of this can only happen

要實現上述這些，

if we start shifting our thinking about innovation.

前提是我們得要開始轉變 我們對創新的想法。

Innovation in our times

在我們這個時代中的創新，

is about bringing back economic footprint within planetary boundaries.

重點在於在地球的限制下 將經濟足跡帶回來。

Anything else, even the coolest of new products,

任何其他東西，就算是 新產品中最酷的，

if it isn't aligned with that goal, it's not innovation,

如果沒有和那目標一致，

就不算創新。

it's business as usual.

只是照舊。

In our little corner of the world,

在世界的一個小角落裡，

my team and I at Carnegie Europe have been working really hard

我和我在歐洲卡內基的 團隊一直致力於

to identify what regenerative foreign policy looks like

找出再生的外交政策是什麼樣子，

and what it aims for.

以及其目標為何。

There are two things that we know by now.

目前我們已經知道兩點。

One is obvious, we need to tackle fundamental issues

第一點很明顯，我們需要處理

關於經濟重新分配的議題， 它是個全球規模的議題。

around economic redistribution on a global scale.

The other thing is that we need a geopolitical de-escalation

第二點，我們需要 在地緣政治面上減緩

around decarbonisation and regeneration.

脫碳及再生的腳步。

We've translated that into a concept we've called ecological diplomacy.

我們將之轉化為一個概念， 我們稱之為生態外交。

And we're pushing really hard for the European Union

我們正在努力推促歐盟將 這個架構納入其外交政策中。

to adopt this framework within their foreign policy.

Because if there is one thing that we've understood,

因為，如果說我們了解一件事，

it's that ecological integrity is the foundation

那就是：生態完整性

是各種安全的基礎。

for all types of security.

Which makes it the one common denominator

這表示，它是一個公分母，

that we can work on rebuilding collectively.

我們可以針對它來做到集體重建。

And we can manage.

我們應付得來。

Truly, I believe that we can.

真的，我相信我們可以。

As long as we shed light on our transition blind spots

只要我們能清楚闡釋 我們在轉換上的盲點，

and take them as our guiding companions

並用它們當作指引指南， 來辨視出真正系統性、

to identify what truly systemic,

truly peaceful

真正和平，

and truly safe solution pathways look like

真正安全的解決途徑

for the age of climate-disrupted futures.

在氣候破壞未來的時代是什麼樣子。

Thank you so much.

非常謝謝。

(Applause)

（掌聲）