War, AI and the New Global Arms Race | Alexandr Wang | TED

譯者: Josephine Chen 審譯者: Shelley Tsang 曾雯海

Artificial intelligence and warfare.

人工智慧和戰爭

Let's talk about what this really could look like.

我們來聊聊可能發展的局勢

Swarms of lethal drones with facial recognition

蜂擁的致命無人機有臉部辨識功能

that know your every move.

偵測你的一舉一動

Or unmanned armed robots that are near impossible to defeat.

或是自主移動武裝機器人 近乎無堅不摧

Autonomous fighter jets that can travel at supersonic speeds

自主戰鬥機可以超音速之姿行進

and can withstand greater gravitational force

且能承受更大的重力

than a human pilot could survive.

人類飛行員無法生存的重力

Cyberattacks that incapacitate critical port infrastructure

網路攻擊癱瘓重要港口的基礎建設

or disinformation campaigns and deepfakes that throw presidential elections.

或假情報活動和深偽技術 在總統大選時亂人耳目

Or even foreign adversaries taking out satellites,

甚至是敵國入侵人造衛星

our eyes and ears in space,

人造衛星是我們在太空中的耳目

rendering us blind to global events.

入侵動作蒙蔽我們對全球事件的了解

All superintelligent weapons of terror.

所有恐怖武器都有超級智能

We are at the dawn of a new age of warfare.

我們身處嶄新戰爭時代的開端

I grew up in the birthplace of a technology

我長大的科技發源地

that defined the last era of warfare,

界定了上一個戰爭時代

the atomic bomb.

那是原子彈時代

I was keenly aware of how this technology had fundamentally shaped geopolitics

我敏銳地察覺到原子科技 如何從根本上塑造了地緣政治

and the nature of war.

還有戰爭的本質

My parents were both scientists at Los Alamos National Laboratory.

我的雙親都是科學家 在洛斯阿拉莫斯國家實驗室工作

My dad’s a physicist, and my mom’s an astrophysicist.

爸爸是物理學家 媽媽是天體物理學家

Their scientific work in plasma fluid dynamics

我父母研究電漿流體動力學

will have deep implications for how we understand our universe.

將有的深遠影響 有助於我們了解宇宙萬象

So naturally, I knew I wanted to work on something just as impactful.

自然而然的驅策了我想要做有影響力的事

I decided to become a programmer and study artificial intelligence.

我決定成為程式設計師，攻讀人工智慧

AI is one of the most critical technologies of our time

AI是我們這個時代最具爭議的科技之一

and with deep implications for national security

對國家安全和全球民主

and democracy globally.

影響廣泛

As we saw in World War II with the atomic bomb,

二次世界大戰擁有原子彈

the country that is able to most rapidly and effectively

又能最快速有效率地整合新科技的國家

integrate new technology into warfighting wins.

在二戰中拔得頭籌

There's no reason to believe this will be any different with AI.

沒有理由不相信AI會有什麼不同

But in the AI arms race, we're already behind.

但在AI戰備競賽上 我們已經落後

From a technological perspective,

從技術層面的觀點看來

China is already ahead of the United States

中國早已凌駕美國之上

in computer vision AI.

包括計算機視覺人工智慧

And in large language models, like ChatGPT,

ChatGPT 之類的大語言模型

they are fast followers.

中國是敏捷的AI擁護者

In terms of military implementations,

以軍事執行而言

they're outspending us:

中方的軍事支出已超越美方

adjusted for total military budget,

整體軍事預算的調度

China's spending ten times more than the United States.

中國編列的預算凌駕美國十倍

Why are we so far behind?

為何我們落後中國呢?

The answer is twofold.

原因有兩部分

First, data supremacy.

一部分是因為資料數據至上權

Despite having the largest fleet of military hardware in the world,

儘管我們擁有世界上最大的軍武裝備艦隊

most of the data from this fleet is thrown away or inaccessible,

艦隊大多數的數據不是被丟棄就是無法取得

hidden away on hard drives that never see the light of day.

藏在硬碟裡永不見天日

This is our Achilles heel.

這就是我們的弱點

In an AI war, everything boils down to data.

AI科技戰爭的關鍵在歸納資料數據

For defense AI,

要創造防禦型人工智慧

data from the internet is not enough.

網路上的資料數據不足

Most of the data needs to come from our military assets,

大部分的數據取得須來自軍事資產

sensors and collaborations with tech companies.

軍事感應器並與科技公司合作

Military commanders need to know how to use data as a military asset.

軍事指揮官需知道如何運用數據 並視為軍事資產

I've heard this first-hand many times,

我親耳聽到這種說法幾次了

from my conversations with military personnel,

從和軍事人員對話中得知

including most recently

包含最近

from Lieutenant General Richard R. Coffman,

和中將理查德·考夫曼

deputy commanding general for United States Army Futures Command.

美國陸軍未來司令部的副總司令談及此事

Second, despite being home to the leading technology companies

第二部分是儘管在國內是首屈一指的科技公司們

at the forefront of artificial intelligence,

擁有人工智慧的一席顯耀地位

the US tech industry has largely shied away

美國科技業卻頻頻閃避

from taking on government contracts.

不願簽訂政府契約

Somewhere along the line,

在某個當下

tech leaders decided that working with the government was taboo.

科技大老們決定和政府共事是禁忌

As a technologist,

身為一個科技家

I'm often asked how I'm bettering this world.

常有人問我我如何能讓世界更美好

This is how I'm improving the future of our world:

這就是我讓未來的世界更進步的方式

by helping my country succeed

我協助我的國家成功

and providing the best tools and technology

提供最好的工具與科技

to ensure that the United States government can defend its citizens,

確保美國政府可以捍衛自己的人民

allies and partners.

同盟國和伙伴

(Applause)

(掌聲)

The Ukraine war has demonstrated that the nature of war has changed.

烏俄戰爭已顯現了戰爭本質的轉變

Through AI overmatch, Ukraine is challenging an adversary

透過領先的人工智慧 烏克蘭能豪不畏懼對手

with far superior numbers of troops and weapons.

儘管俄國在軍隊與武器的數量 遠在烏克蘭之上

Before the Ukraine war,

烏俄大戰前

Russia had spent an estimated 65 billion US dollars

俄國花費粗估將近650億美元

on its military expenditures,

在軍備開支上

whereas Ukraine only spent about six billion dollars.

反觀烏克蘭只花費60億美元

It's estimated that Russia had over 900,000 military troops

據估計俄國有超過90萬支部隊

and 1,300 aircraft,

一千三百台軍機

whereas Ukraine only had 200,000 military troops and 130 aircraft.

然而烏克蘭只有20萬隻部隊和130架軍機

Technologies such as drones,

科技有像是無人機

AI-based targeting and image intelligence

AI人工智能定位、圖像智能

and Javelin missiles

和刺針標槍飛彈

have enabled a shocking defense of Ukraine.

烏克蘭已有令人震驚的足夠防禦力

AI is proving invaluable for defending Ukrainian cities and infrastructure

AI證實了能極為有效的防禦烏克蘭的城市與建設

against missile and drone bombardment.

對抗飛彈和無人機的連續轟炸

At Scale, we’re using our novel machine learning algorithm

在Scale AI 我們大規模的使用新式機器學習演算法

for battle damage assessment in key areas affected by the war.

對主要戰爭影響的區域做損害評估

We've rapidly analyzed over 2,000 square kilometers

我們迅速分析超過2千平方公尺的區域

and have identified over 370,000 structures,

也分析超越37萬棟的大型建築物

including thousands not previously identified

包含其他開放原碼資料庫

by other open source data sets.

早先無法判斷的損害分析

We focused on Kyiv, Kharkiv and Dnipro

我們把重心放在基輔、哈爾科夫和聶伯河

and provided our data directly

直接提供我們的數據資料

in a publicly accessible data set to the broader AI community.

集結公開可取得的資料合併更廣大的AI社群

One of the key problems we're solving

我們解決其中一個關鍵問題

is using AI to analyze massive amounts of imagery and detect objects

就是運用人工智能分析大量的圖像與偵測物體

because humans just can't keep up.

因為人類根本跟不上AI分析的速度

We've received an overwhelming response from our free AI-ready data set

我們的免費AI就緒資料庫收到很多熱烈的回應

and have provided it directly to the United States and NATO allies.

已經直接提供美國和北約盟國使用

And it's been downloaded over 2,000 times by AI companies, researchers,

眾AI公司、研究者、發展者和地理資訊從業者

developers and GIS practitioners.

下載免費資料庫已超過2千次

AI can also be used for change detection.

人工智能也可用於變化檢測

Simply put, algorithms can constantly monitor imagery

簡單來說，演算法可以持續監測圖像

and notify a human to investigate further if there's a change or a movement.

假如AI發現異動或是任何行動 會通知我們做更深入的調查

It's clear that AI is increasingly powering warfare.

很明顯地，AI逐步加強了戰力

And based on the rate of progress in the AI field,

以AI領域的進步速度來預估

I predict that in ten years, it will be the dominant force.

10年內人工智能將會成為主力

Disinformation and misinformation are already huge problems.

假情報和假資訊已經造成大麻煩

And this technology is only going to make it worse.

AI科技只會讓情況更糟

Tools like ChatGPT have enabled AI to generate imagery,

像是ChatGPT這樣的科技 能運用人工智能生成圖像

text, audio, video, code and even reason.

文字、音檔、影片、編碼甚至推理

These tools can generate realistic-looking and realistic-sounding content,

這些工具能產出擬真圖像和逼真的人聲

which on top of bot-run social media accounts

再加上機器人運作的社群媒體帳號

will make it nearly impossible to identify disinformation

將達到近乎無法辨識真偽的假情報

and misinformation online.

和假資訊在網路流傳

Bad actors can use these tools to supercharge misinformation

劣質演員會使用這些AI智能工具強化假消息

and propagate falsehoods.

散播謊言

China already uses disinformation campaigns

中國早就大量使用假消息滲透

and social media manipulations heavily in Taiwan,

操控社群媒體的手段來對付台灣

particularly during elections.

在選舉期間尤其常見

Or take Russia's propaganda machine,

以俄羅斯的宣傳機器為例

which in the wake of Russia's invasion of Ukraine

隨著俄羅斯侵略烏克蘭之後

created a deepfake of Ukrainian President Zelensky

製造了烏克蘭總統澤蘭斯基的深偽分身

calling for Ukrainian troops to surrender.

召喚烏克蘭軍隊投降

This deepfake was easy to spot,

這個深偽極為容易辨識

but the next one may not be.

但下一個可就不一定了

This also takes place within our borders,

美國境內也有此現象發生

from social media algorithm manipulation

從被社群媒體演算法操控

to advertising microtargeting and geofencing,

到微型目標廣告和電子圍籬

to deepfakes of politicians and bot-run social media accounts.

到深偽政治人物和機器人操控的社群媒體帳號

The United States is not excused

美國無法置身事外

from exacerbating disinformation and misinformation.

也陷在惡化的假情報與假消息中

These tools are universally accessible at low or no cost,

這些人工智能工具普及易取得 便宜甚至免費

meaning they can be employed by anyone anywhere

這代表著無論和人和地都可利用它

to undermine the sanctity of democracy globally.

破壞了神聖的全球民主

However, all hope is not lost.

然而希望尚存

If we properly invest

如果我們適當的投入

into data infrastructure and data preparation,

資料建設和資料準備

all this can be avoided.

這些破壞都可以避免

Deterrence is nothing new to military thinking.

威懾對軍事思考而言是舊聞了

As we saw in World War II with the atomic bomb,

二次大戰中所見的原子彈

it was a primary factor in deterring foreign adversaries

是威嚇住對手國的主要關鍵

from going to nuclear war for more than six decades.

這六十多個年頭來避免演變成核戰的關鍵

Because the stakes of going to war with such a technology

使用原子彈這項科技開戰的風險

were simply too high.

簡直太高

We're likely to see a new calculus emerge with AI.

我們很可能看到AI編寫新微積分

It's uncharted territory, nobody knows what it will look like

人工智慧是未知的領域 沒有人知道他會如何發展

or the toll it will take.

或是帶來多少破壞

How do we know if our AI is better than our adversaries'?

我們要從何得知我們的AI比對手更好

We won't.

無從得知

But one thing is clear:

但有件事是很明確的

AI can only be as powerful as the underlying data

人工智能的強大程度取決於

that is used to fuel its algorithms.

用於支持其演算法的基礎數據

Data will be a new kind of ammunition in the era of AI warfare.

數據將是這個時代AI戰的新型彈藥

In the tech industry, we often talk about missions.

身處科技產業，我們常談到任務

They're often frivolous.

科技產業常漫不經心

Do they really change the world or save lives?

科技產業真的改變世界了嗎? 拯救生命了嗎?

This mission, on the other hand, really matters.

另一方面來說， 這個使命真的太重要了

The AI war will define the future of our world

人工智能戰將重新定義世界的未來

and has the potential to shift the balance of diplomatic power.

並且有潛力轉移外交力量的平衡

It's clear that digital warfare

很明確的數位戰爭

is not some dystopian reality, tucked away in a faraway future.

並非反烏托邦現實 隱藏在遙遠的以後

It is taking place in the here and now.

數位戰爭現在正在發生

We cannot sit by the sidelines

我們不能坐視不管

and watch the rise of an authoritarian regime.

眼看著專制政權崛起

It is in moments like this

這樣的時刻

that technologists can either rise to the challenge or stand idle.

科技學家是要勇於挑戰還是袖手旁觀

I encourage my fellow technologists

鼓勵我的科技同儕們

to understand the austerity and severity of our times

理解我們這個時代的艱苦和嚴苛

and commit themselves to supporting national security.

並承諾自己支持國家安全吧!

While I find it shocking that most American AI companies

我驚訝的發現大部分的美國AI公司

have chosen not to support national security,

選擇不支持國家安全

I do hope others join us.

我真心期盼其他人加入我們

We must fight for the world we want to live in.

為我們想活成的世界的樣子而戰

It's never mattered more.

沒有比這更重要的事了

Thank you.

謝謝各位

(Applause)

(掌聲)