Jim Hagemann Snabe: Dreams and details for a decarbonized future | TED Countdown

翻译人员: Yip Yan Yeung 校对人员: Helen Chang

A few months ago,

几个月前，

my daughter asked me a very simple question:

我的女儿问了我 一个很简单的问题：

“Who are your heroes, dad?”

“爸爸，你心目中的英雄是谁？”，

I said, "Well, besides my father ..."

我说：“好吧， 除了我父亲……”，

hoping she would get the hint.

希望她能理解这个提示。

(Laughter)

（笑声）

One of my big heroes is Malcom McLean.

我心目中最伟大的英雄之一

是马尔康·马克林（Malcom McLean）。

I realize that Malcom McLean is not really known on social media today,

我发现马尔康·马克林在现在的 社交媒体上不怎么为人所知，

but, in 1955, McLean invented a metal box that changed the world:

但是 1955 年，马克林 发明了一个改变世界的铁盒子：

the shipping container.

运输集装箱。

That invention reduced the costs of shipping cargo

这项发明减少了超过 90% 的货物运输成本，

by more than 90 percent,

and as a consequence ...

因此，

global trade increased 200 times

国际贸易增长了 200 倍，

and lifted hundreds of millions of people out of poverty

带领几亿人走出贫困，

by connecting them and their goods to global markets

让他们和他们的商品 以非常非常低的成本走向世界。

at very, very low cost.

I'm sure McLean's invention started with a big dream

我相信马克林的发明 始于一个伟大的梦想，

to transform the transportation industry,

致力于改变运输行业，

and I know it took a lot of attention to details

我知道这需要花费 很多心思关注细枝末节，

to change all of the equipment

为了从集装箱获益，而更换 全球所有运输公司的所有设备。

of all of the transportation companies worldwide

to benefit from this container.

To me, that is what leadership is all about.

对我来说，这就是“领导力”。

Dreams that inspire people to pursue opportunities that may seem impossible --

这样的梦想，激励人们 追求看似不可能的机会

and details.

和细节。

Because without attention to the details,

因为如果没有对细节的关注，

the dream will just stay a dream.

梦想终究是梦想。

McLean's dream was to transform the cargo transportation industry

马克林的梦想是通过降低 货运成本，改变整个货运行业。

by making it affordable.

It is time to transform it again.

是时候再转型一次了。

We urgently need to make it sustainable.

我们急需让货运变得可持续。

More than 9 percent of CO2 emissions globally

全球超过 9% 的碳排放

come from transporting goods around the world.

来自全球的货物运输。

So what is the dream?

所以梦想是什么？

In 2018, the management team of A.P. Moller - Maersk,

2018 年，马士基集团（A.P. Moller - Maersk）的管理层，

the global shipping company I lead as a chairman,

我担任董事长的全球货运公司，

made a commitment to make the company carbon-neutral by 2050.

作出了公司将在 2050 年前 达到碳中和的承诺。

For some people, 2050 sounded like a long time into the future,

对于有些人来说， 2050 年 听起来是很遥远的未来，

but in fact,

但是实际上，

this was a very ambitious dream for a shipping company.

对于一个货运公司来言， 这是一个很有野心的梦想。

To be carbon-neutral by 2050,

要在 2050 年前 达到碳中和，

we needed to invent a zero-carbon container vessel

我们需要在 2030 年前 发明一种零碳的集装箱船。

by 2030.

Because then, it would take roughly 20 years

因为在此之后， 要花大约 20 年

to replace all of the 750 vessels that we operate.

替换我们运营的所有 总计 750 艘集装箱船。

So the dream was truly big and really inspiring.

所以这个梦想真的 很宏大又鼓舞人心。

But to be honest,

但是说实话，

in 2018, we did not know how to do this.

在 2018 年， 我们不知道该怎么做。

We had to work hard on the details.

我们要在细节上下功夫。

Now at that time, we had already focused a lot of attention

此前，我们已经花了很多精力

on reducing CO2 emissions from shipping.

减少货运的碳排放。

In fact, we had achieved more than 40 percent reduction

实际上，从 2008 年以来， 我们已经达成了

per container moved

让运输单个集装箱所带来的

since 2008.

碳排放减少 40% 。

That was done by building bigger and more efficient vessels,

我们通过建造更大、 更高效的集装箱，

and by slow steaming,

减速航行，意思是指通过减缓 船只航行速度来减少燃料消耗，

which means sailing the vessel slower so it consumes less fuel.

达到这个结果。

But we were reaching the limit.

但是我们到达极限了。

Obviously, you could sail so slow that you don't sail at all,

显然，你可以减速到根本不航行，

and you would save all of the CO2 emissions.

这样可以完全不排放二氧化碳。

(Laughter)

（笑声）

But that didn't seem like a good solution.

但是听起来这不像是个好方法。

Now some of the first humans who sailed the big oceans,

最先在大海上航行的人们，

the people from Polynesia,

波利尼西亚的人们，

had figured out zero-carbon shipping by using sails,

发现了用帆达到零碳航行，

and it is true that sails can reduce the fuel consumption somewhat,

帆确实可以降低燃料消耗，

but it cannot deliver on the efficiency

但是它无法达到如今全球 供应链所需的效率和精确性。

and accuracy needed in today's global supply chains.

Another alternative is batteries.

另一个方法是用电池。

But for the large vessels sailing the big oceans,

但是对于在大海上 航行的巨型集装箱船，

the batteries would take up 60 percent of the capacity of the vessel.

电池会占用船只容量的 60%。

Some shipping companies started ordering vessels based on LNG,

有些货运公司开始订购

液化天然气运行的集装箱船。

liquid natural gas.

LNG is a fossil fuel,

液化天然气是化石燃料，

and it will never lead to zero-carbon shipping.

永远不可能达成零碳货运。

Slow steaming, sails, batteries, LNG --

减速航行、帆、 电池、液化天然气，

none of it would make us be carbon-neutral.

以上都不会让我们达到碳中和。

So what else?

所以还有什么呢？

Well, we knew we had to look for other solutions,

嗯，我们知道必须 要去找别的解决方法，

and we realized we couldn't do it alone.

也意识到我们不能 独自完成这个任务。

To help us find a solution,

为了找到一个解决方案，

our main shareholder, the A.P. Moller Foundation,

我们的大股东，

A.P. 穆勒基金会 （A.P. Moller Foundation）

donated 400 million Danish krone

捐赠了 4 亿丹麦克朗，

to create a global center for zero-carbon shipping in Copenhagen.

为了在哥本哈根建立 零碳货运的全球中心。

That center would bring together companies and specialists

该中心会汇集来自 全世界的公司和专家，

from all over the world, not just from the transportation industry,

不仅来自于运输行业，

but also from energy, from chemicals and engineering.

还会来自能源、化学和工程行业。

And now, less than three years after our big dream,

现在，距离提出我们宏大的 梦想不到 3 年时间，

we have found the solution.

我们已经找到了答案。

It is called "power-to-X."

它叫做“Power-to-X” （电力多元化转换）。

Now power-to-X is not a new technology, nor did we invent it.

Power-to-X不是一项新技术， 也不是我们发明的。

It is a combination of known chemical processes

它是一些能够

to convert green electricity to green fuel.

将清洁电力转换成 清洁燃料的化学过程的合集。

First, you convert the green electricity from solar or wind to green hydrogen.

首先，将太阳能或风能产生的 清洁电力转换成清洁氢气。

That is done through electrolysis.

由电解技术完成。

And then, the green hydrogen

然后，清洁氢气

can be converted to various types of green fuels

通过一些化学反应， 被转换成各式清洁燃料。

through chemical processes.

The benefit of power-to-X

Power-to-X 带来的好处有

is that it produces a green fuel that is liquid at normal temperature

产生一种常温呈液态的清洁燃料，

and can be used in a combustion engine.

且适用于内燃机。

So instead of spending 20 years to replace all of our 750 vessels

所以与其花二十年替换我们所有 总计 750 艘集装箱船，

and create a big pile of waste,

同时产生一堆废弃物，

we believe we can retrofit existing vessels

我们认为不如翻新现有的船只，

by adding a combustion engine designed for green fuel,

安装为清洁燃料设计的内燃机，

and with that, achieve zero-carbon shipping

借此提早很多达到零碳运输。

much, much earlier.

(Applause)

（掌声）

On top of that, power-to-X is actually a very nice solution

除此之外，Power-to-X 其实是一个很好的解决方案，

for one of the biggest problems in renewable energy systems:

它能解决再生能源系统 最大的问题之一：

the storage problem.

存储问题。

When there's too much wind and sun,

有大量风力和太阳能时，

you can convert the unused electricity to a liquid green fuel

可以把闲置的电力转换成 液态的清洁燃料，

that can be used in many different industries.

用于许多不同的行业。

So what are the challenges?

所以有些什么挑战呢？

Well, I often hear the same concern when it comes to sustainability.

嗯，谈到“可持续”， 我总是听到同样的忧虑：

"Can we afford it?"

“我们负担得起吗？”

And yes, it is true that this green fuel

说得没错，清洁燃料确实

is more expensive than the bunker fuel we use today.

比我们现在用的船用燃油贵。

In fact, it is two to three times more expensive

实际上清洁燃料比现有科技 贵 2 - 3 倍。

with current technology.

Like always, we need to scale these solutions

我们需要像以往一样， 通过扩大这些方案的应用

to get the cost down.

来降低成本。

But even if the green fuel

但是就算清洁燃料

would be two times more expensive than the bunker fuel ...

比燃油贵两倍，

It should not be a showstopper, come on.

也不该是我们放弃它的借口。

Even at that price, a pair of sneakers,

即使是这个价格，一双球鞋

transported from Asia to the US or Europe,

从亚洲运往美国或欧洲，

would only cost five cents more.

也只是多花了 5 分钱。

So for me,

所以对我来说，

the argument around affordability is just a bad excuse

关于负担能力的言论 只是一个坏借口，

for not making the necessary decisions and investments.

是为了避免做出 必要的决定和投资。

(Applause)

（掌声）

And if we had a price on CO2,

假设我们给二氧化碳定价，

let's say around 150 dollars,

大概 150 美元，

the affordability argument would disappear.

负担能力的说法就会消失。

I urge governments to show leadership

我敦促政府展现出领导力，

and implement a global price on CO2 now.

立即为二氧化碳制定全球价格。

(Applause)

（掌声）

Because with that,

因为这样，

we could focus all of our attention on the real issue,

我们才能关注真正的问题，

which is not the price, but the scale.

关注规模而不是价格。

At Maersk, I asked the following question:

在马士基集团，我问了这个问题：

"How much green electricity do we need to fuel all of our 750 vessels

“要给我们全部 750 艘船提供清洁燃料，

需要多少清洁电力？”

with green fuel?"

Our fleet today consumes 10 million tonnes of bunker oil.

我们的船队现在一天 要消耗一千万吨船用燃油。

To replace that with green fuel,

如果替换成清洁燃料，

we estimate that we need 220,000 gigawatt-hours

我们预计需要 220 亿千瓦时的

of green electricity.

清洁电力。

That is the equivalent of 10 percent

这相当于

of the installed base of solar and wind in 2019.

2019 年已安装的太阳能 和风能产生电力的 10% 。

And Maersk is 20 percent of the cargo shipping industry.

马士基集团占 货运行业的 20%。

So to fuel the cargo shipping industry alone

所以单单为整个货运行业提供燃料

would consume 50 percent of the entire installed base of green electricity.

就需要消耗清洁电力 产量的 50% 。

And that's just cargo shipping.

而这只是货运。

In other words,

换句话说，

we need a dramatic, exponential scale of installations

我们需要太阳能、风力、 氢气制造、清洁燃料制造设备

of solar, of wind, of hydrogen production, of green fuel production,

以剧增、指数型增幅增长，

to solve this problem.

才能解决这个问题。

We estimate that the total investment

我们预计总投资

will be in the neighborhood of two trillion dollars,

大约为两万亿美元，

which, granted, is a lot of money.

确实是一笔不小的数目。

But actually,

但是实际上，

it is the equivalent of four years of capital expenditure

这相当于现今油气行业 四年的资本支出。

in the oil and gas industry today.

(Applause)

（掌声）

I predict that for the next 10 years,

我预计在接下来的十年，

the demand for green fuel will be significantly higher than the supply.

清洁燃料会远远供不应求。

Isn't that wonderful?

很棒吧？

Higher demand and supply normally means great business opportunities

更多的供需通常意味着

for everyone who chooses to participate,

给想要参与的人带来更多的商机，

and it proves one of my key assumptions in today's world:

也证明了我对当今世界的 一个重要假设：

it has become good business to invest in sustainable solutions.

投资可持续解决方案 会是一笔好生意。

(Applause)

（掌声）

My conclusion is very simple.

我的结论很简单。

We have the technologies needed to create a sustainable future.

我们已经有了可以创造 可持续未来的技术。

What we need is leadership,

我们需要的是领导，

leadership to get us there faster.

带领我们更快地到达那里。

On the first of July, 2021,

2021 年的 7 月 1 日，

Maersk ordered the first vessel designed for green fuel.

马士基集团订购了第一艘 为清洁燃料设计的集装箱船。

It will be delivered in 2023.

将在 2023 年交付。

Only two months later, we ordered another eight large vessels

仅仅两个月之后，我们 又订购了 8 艘巨型集装箱船，

and made our first investments in green fuel production.

也做了第一笔 清洁燃料制造的投资。

What seemed to be an impossible dream only three years ago

三年前看起来无法实现的梦想，

is becoming reality now,

现如今逐渐成真，

seven years ahead of the original plan.

比我们的原定计划早了七年。

(Applause)

（掌声）

This is a leadership moment.

这是一个领导力瞬间。

It is time for us to pursue big dreams,

我们追寻宏大理想的时刻到了，

even if they seem impossible.

就算看似无法实现。

And it is time for us to collaborate around the critical details

我们就重要细节积极合作的时刻到了，

so we get to a sustainable future much, much faster.

以更早地到达一个可持续的未来。

Thank you very much.

谢谢大家。

(Applause)

（掌声）