The new urgency of climate change | Al Gore

翻译人员: Boyu Yang 校对人员: ERIC YU YU

Chris Anderson: Al, welcome.

克里斯·安德森（Chris Anderson）： 阿尔（Al），欢迎你。

So look, just six months ago --

就在 6 个月之前——

it seems a lifetime ago, but it really was just six months ago --

虽然恍如隔世， 但其实就只在 6 个月之前——

climate seemed to be on the lips of every thinking person on the planet.

气候好像是世界上每个 喜欢思考的人都会谈论的话题。

Recent events seem to have swept it all away from our attention.

最近发生的事情似乎让它 完全离开了我们的视线。

How worried are you about that?

你对此有多担忧？

Al Gore: Well, first of all Chris, thank you so much for inviting me

阿尔·戈尔（Al Gore）：首先， 克里斯，非常感谢你邀请我

to have this conversation.

参与此次的访谈。

People are reacting differently

针对这场气候危机，

与其伴随着的

to the climate crisis

适当引起了我们关注的

in the midst of these other great challenges

其它严峻挑战，

that have taken over our awareness,

人们的态度是不同的。

appropriately.

One reason is something that you mentioned.

其中的一个原因是， 正如你提到的，

People get the fact that when scientists are warning us

人们非常明白

当科学家们正以更可怕的术语，

in ever more dire terms

并且可以说是火烧眉毛时，

and setting their hair on fire, so to speak,

it's best to listen to what they're saying,

最好还是听从他们的建议，

and I think that lesson has begun to sink in in a new way.

同时我认为这个道理已被人们 用一种新的方式所理解。

Another similarity, by the way,

顺便提一句，另一个相似处

is that the climate crisis, like the COVID-19 pandemic,

是正如新冠肺炎大流行，

气候危机已经用一种新的方式

has revealed in a new way

the shocking injustices and inequalities and disparities

暴露出侵害着 有色人种与低收入群体的

that affect communities of color

令人瞠目结舌的不公正，

and low-income communities.

不平等和阶级悬殊。

There are differences.

它们之间存在不同之处。

The climate crisis has effects that are not measured in years,

气候危机的影响 不像大流行病那样

as the pandemic is,

以年来衡量，

but consequences that are measured in centuries and even longer.

而是要以世纪， 甚至更长的时间尺度来衡量。

And the other difference is that instead of depressing economic activity

另一个不同之处是， 与全世界各国为对抗新冠肺炎

to deal with the climate crisis,

而不得不采取 压制经济活动的行为相比，

as nations around the world have had to do with COVID-19,

对于气候危机，

we have the opportunity to create tens of millions of new jobs.

我们有机会 创造出数千万个工作岗位。

That sounds like a political phrasing,

这听上去像是政治上的用语，

but it's literally true.

但的确是事实。

For the last five years,

过去的五年间，

the fastest-growing job in the US has been solar installer.

在美国，增速最快的工作 是太阳能安装工。

The second-fastest has been wind turbine technician.

增速第二快的是 风力发电机技术员。

And the "Oxford Review of Economics," just a few weeks ago,

就在几周前， 《牛津经济政策评论》杂志还提到，

pointed the way to a very jobs-rich recovery

如果我们着力于可再生能源 和可持续发展技术的话，

if we emphasize renewable energy and sustainability technology.

就会有一次 充满就业机会的经济复苏。

So I think we are crossing a tipping point,

我认为我们正在跨越一个转折点，

and you need only look at the recovery plans

并且你只需要查看正在全世界 各国提出的经济复苏计划，

that are being presented in nations around the world

to see that they're very much focused on a green recovery.

就知道大家都非常关注

绿色的经济复苏。

CA: I mean, one obvious impact of the pandemic

克里斯·安德森： 这场流行病的显著影响

is that it's brought the world's economy to a shuddering halt,

是其使世界经济陷入停滞，

thereby reducing greenhouse gas emissions.

从而导致温室气体的排放下降。

I mean, how big an effect has that been,

其影响究竟有多大，

and is it unambiguously good news?

是个明确的好消息吗？

AG: Well, it's a little bit of an illusion, Chris,

阿尔·戈尔：克里斯， 这其实有点像是一种错觉，

and you need only look back to the Great Recession in 2008 and '09,

你只需要回看 2008 年 和 2009 年发生的经济危机，

when there was a one percent decline in emissions,

当时的排放量出现了 1% 的下降，

but then in 2010,

但到了 2010 年，

they came roaring back during the recovery

排放量在经济复苏期间，

with a four percent increase.

强劲反弹了 4% 。

The latest estimates are that emissions will go down by at least five percent

最新的预测是， 在此次人为的经济萧条期间，

during this induced coma,

排放量将至少减低 5% ， 这正如经济学家

as the economist Paul Krugman perceptively described it,

保罗·克鲁格曼（Paul Krugman） 预见的那样，

but whether it goes back the way it did after the Great Recession

但排放量是否会像 经济危机之后那样反弹

is in part up to us,

取决于我们的努力，

and if these green recovery plans are actually implemented,

并且如果这些绿色的 经济复苏计划真的被实施，

and I know many countries are determined to implement them,

同时我知道许多国家 也下决心要执行它们，

then we need not repeat that pattern.

那么我们就不必 再重复上次衰退后的规律。

After all, this whole process is occurring

毕竟这整个过程

during a period when the cost of renewable energy

都发生在可再生能源、 电动车和电源，

以及一系列其它 可持续发展手段的

and electric vehicles, batteries

and a range of other sustainability approaches

成本在持续不断下降

are continuing to fall in price,

这一期间内，

and they're becoming much more competitive.

并且它们都在变得更有竞争力。

Just a quick reference to how fast this is:

我想用一个简单的对比 来说明发展速度有多快：

five years ago, electricity from solar and wind

5 年前， 太阳与风力产生的电力

was cheaper than electricity from fossil fuels

比化石燃料得到的电力更便宜。

in only one percent of the world.

只占全世界的 1%。

This year, it's cheaper in two-thirds of the world,

今年，其在全世界 2/3 的地方都更加便宜，

and five years from now,

而且在 5 年之后，

it will be cheaper in virtually 100 percent of the world.

基本上在全世界所有地方 都会更便宜。

EVs will be cost-competitive within two years,

电动车在两年会在成本上 变得更有竞争力，

and then will continue falling in price.

然后在价格上会有所下降。

And so there are changes underway

所以这些正在进行的变化

that could interrupt the pattern we saw after the Great Recession.

会中断我们在经济危机后 看到的规律。

CA: The reason those pricing differentials happen in different parts of the world

克里斯·安德森：这些出现在全世界 不同地区的价格差异的成因

is obviously because there's different amounts of sunshine and wind there

很明显是因为存在着 不同总量的日照和风力

and different building costs and so forth.

以及不同的建筑成本等等。

AG: Well, yes, and government policies also account for a lot.

阿尔·戈尔：是的， 政府政策也占很大比重。

The world is continuing to subsidize fossil fuels

全世界在继续以荒唐的金额

at a ridiculous amount,

补贴着化石燃料，

more so in many developing countries than in the US and developed countries,

虽然许多发展中国家比 美国和一些发达国家补贴得更多，

but it's subsidized here as well.

但在这儿， 我们同样在补贴化石燃料。

But everywhere in the world,

但在全世界任何地方，

wind and solar will be cheaper as a source of electricity

风能和太阳能在几年内，

就会成为比化石燃料

than fossil fuels,

更便宜的电力来源。

within a few years.

CA: I think I've heard it said that the fall in emissions

克里斯·安德森： 我听说过，

caused by the pandemic

如果我们是要满足排放目标，

isn't that much more than, actually, the fall that we will need

那么由此次大流行

引起的温室气体排放量下降，

every single year

if we're to meet emissions targets.

实际并不比我们 每年的目标下降量多多少。

Is that true, and, if so,

这种说法是事实吗， 如果是的话，

doesn't that seem impossibly daunting?

这个目标会不会有些不太现实？

AG: It does seem daunting, but first look at the number.

阿尔·戈尔：它的确看上去很难实现， 但我们首先关注一下数据。

That number came from a study a little over a year ago

这个数据是来自一年前

released by the IPCC

政府间气候变化专门委员会 （IPCC）的一项研究，

as to what it would take to keep the Earth's temperatures from increasing

该研究讨论了如何控制

more than 1.5 degrees Celsius.

地球温度上升不超过 1.5 摄氏度。

And yes, the annual reductions would be significant,

而且，按照我们 所看到的疫情规律，

on the order of what we've seen with the pandemic.

每年的减少量将是巨大的。

And yes, that does seem daunting.

是的，这的确看上去很艰难。

However, we do have the opportunity to make some fairly dramatic changes,

但我们确实可以做出一些 相当巨大的改变

and the plan is not a mystery.

而且其计划并不神秘。

You start with the two sectors that are closest to an effective transition --

你可以从两个 最接近有效过渡的领域开始——

electricity generation, as I mentioned --

发电，正如我提到的——

and last year, 2019,

去年，2019 年，

if you look at all of the new electricity generation built

如果你去看看全世界

所有新增的发电厂中，

all around the world,

72 percent of it was from solar and wind.

72 % 来自太阳能和风能。

And already, without the continuing subsidies for fossil fuels,

而且，如果没有 对化石燃料的持续补贴，

we would see many more of these plants

我们会看到更多的化石燃料发电厂

being shut down.

被关掉。

There are some new fossil plants being built,

虽然有些新的化石燃料发电厂 依然在建造当中，

but many more are being shut down.

但更多的发电厂正在被关闭。

And where transportation is concerned,

而对交通而言

the second sector ready to go,

第二个领域已经准备好了，

in addition to the cheaper prices for EVs that I made reference to before,

除了我之前 提到过的更廉价的电子汽车

there are some 45 jurisdictions around the world --

世界各地的 45 个司法管辖区——

national, regional and municipal --

国家、地区和城市——

where laws have been passed beginning a phaseout

在这些地方， 一些已被通过的法律

of internal combustion engines.

开始逐步停止内燃机的使用。

Even India said that by 2030, less than 10 years from now,

甚至，印度已经决定 在 2030 年前，

也就是不到 10 年的时间内，

it will be illegal to sell any new internal combustion engines

在印度销售任何新的内燃机 都是违法的。

in India.

There are many other examples.

还有很多其他的例子。

So the past small reductions

因此，过去的小规模减排

may not be an accurate guide to the kind we can achieve

可能无法准确地去指导我们

with serious national plans

通过严谨的国家计划 和集中的全球努力

and a focused global effort.

实现我们的减排目标。

CA: So help us understand just the big picture here, Al.

克里斯·安德森：阿尔， 请你帮我们理解一下全局。

I think before the pandemic,

我认为在这场疫情发生之前，

the world was emitting

全世界大约排放着 550 亿吨

about 55 gigatons of what they call "CO2 equivalent,"

人们所谓的“二氧化碳当量”，

so that includes other greenhouse gases

其包括比如像会变为

like methane dialed up to be the equivalent of CO2.

二氧化碳等价物的甲烷 等其它温室气体。

And am I right in saying that the IPCC,

我这样说是否正确， 全球科学家组织的

which is the global organization of scientists,

IPCC 正提出建议，

is recommending that the only way to fix this crisis

解决这场气候危机的唯一方法

is to get that number from 55 to zero

就是最迟在 2050 年前

by 2050 at the very latest,

将 550 亿吨排放变为 0 ，

and that even then, there's a chance that we will end up with temperature rises

而且即使是这样， 全球气温还是有可能

more like two degrees Celsius rather than 1.5?

增加超过 2 摄氏度 而不是 1.5 摄氏度。

I mean, is that approximately the big picture

这是 IPCC

of what the IPCC is recommending?

所建议的大致重点吗？

AG: That's correct.

阿尔·戈尔：没错。

The global goal established in the Paris Conference

巴黎会议上制定的全球目标

is to get to net zero on a global basis

是 2050 年在全球范围内

by 2050,

将排放量净值减至零，

and many people quickly add

很多人快速地计算出

that that really means a 45 to 50 percent reduction by 2030

这实际上意味着在 2030 年前 完成 45% 到 50% 的下降

to make that pathway to net zero feasible.

才有可能让排放量最终减至零。

CA: And that kind of timeline is the kind of timeline

克里斯·安德森： 那样的时间线

where people couldn't even imagine it.

是人们根本无法想象的，

It's just hard to think of policy over 30 years.

去思考跨度长达 30 年的政策 是非常困难的。

So that's actually a very good shorthand,

所以应该可以这样概括，

that humanity's task is to cut emissions in half by 2030,

人类的任务是 到 2030 年减少一半的排放量，

approximately speaking,

大概是这个意思，

which I think boils down to about a seven or eight percent reduction a year,

如果我没说错的话，

我认为可以归结为 每年减少 7% 或 8%。

something like that, if I'm not wrong.

AG: Not quite. Not quite that large

阿尔·戈尔：不完全是， 下降率没有那么大，

but close, yes.

但是的，很接近了。

CA: So it is something like the effect that we've experienced this year

克里斯·安德森：所以说， 我们今年所经历的事件

may be necessary.

可能是必须的。

This year, we've done it by basically shutting down the economy.

今年，我们通过 经济停摆实现了这个目标，

You're talking about a way of doing it over the coming years

我们谈论的是在未来几年 实现这一目标的一种方式，

that actually gives some economic growth and new jobs.

这种方式实际上会带来 一些经济增长和新的就业机会。

So talk more about that.

能不能就这个话题展开一下？

You've referred to changing our energy sources,

你提到了改变我们的能源来源，

changing how we transport.

改变我们的交通方式。

If we did those things,

如果我们做了这些事情，

how much of the problem does that solve?

能解决多少问题？

AG: Well, we can get to --

阿尔·戈尔： 在我之前提到的

well, in addition to doing the two sectors that I mentioned,

两个领域可以进行尝试之外，

we also have to deal with manufacturing and all the use cases

我们同样也面临着

制造所有需要 1000 摄氏温度的用例，

that require temperatures of a thousand degrees Celsius,

and there are solutions there as well.

这方面其实也有解决方案。

I'll come back and mention an exciting one that Germany has just embarked upon.

我稍后还会提到 德国刚刚启动的一个激动人心的计划。

We also have to tackle regenerative agriculture.

我们同样必须解决再生农业问题。

There is the opportunity to sequester a great deal of carbon

有一种方法， 通过改变农业种植技巧，

我们可以

in topsoils around the world

by changing the agricultural techniques.

在世界各地的表层土壤中 吸收大量的碳。

There is a farmer-led movement to do that.

这是一场由农民领导的运动。

We need to also retrofit buildings.

我们同样需要改造建筑。

We need to change our management of forests and the ocean.

我们需要改变 我们对森林和海洋的管理。

But let me just mention two things briefly.

但让我先简短提两件事。

First of all, the high temperature use cases.

首先，高温的例子。

Angela Merkel, just 10 days ago,

就在 10 天前， 默克尔总理在她的部长

with the leadership of her minister Peter Altmaier,

彼得·阿尔特迈尔 （Peter Altmaier）——

我的好朋友，也是 一位伟大的人民公仆——

who is a good friend and a great public servant,

have just embarked on a green hydrogen strategy

在他的领导下，

刚刚启动了一项绿色氢战略，

to make hydrogen

以零边际成本的 可再生能源生产氢。

with zero marginal cost renewable energy.

And just a word on that, Chris:

我还想补充一点，克里斯：

you've heard about the intermittency of wind and solar --

你已经可能听过 太阳能和风能的间歇性——

solar doesn't produce electricity when the sun's not shining,

没有阳光时， 就无法用太阳能发电，

and wind doesn't when the wind's not blowing --

没风时，也无法用风能发电——

but batteries are getting better,

但是电池的性能越来越好，

and these technologies are becoming much more efficient and powerful,

这些技术也变得更加高效和强大，

so that for an increasing number of hours of each day,

所以在每天每时，

they're producing often way more electricity than can be used.

它们产生的电量， 往往远远超过了可用的电量。

So what to do with it?

那么我们下来要做什么？

The marginal cost for the next kilowatt-hour is zero.

下一个千瓦时的边际成本为零。

So all of a sudden,

所以突然间，

the very energy-intensive process of cracking hydrogen from water

从水中裂解氢气 这一需要密集能源的项目

becomes economically feasible,

在经济上层面上变得可行，

and it can be substituted for coal and gas,

它可以取代煤和天然气，

and that's already being done.

并且这项技术已经实现了。

There's a Swedish company already making steel with green hydrogen,

有一个瑞典的公司 已经开始用绿色氢能源来炼钢，

and, as I say, Germany has just embarked on a major new initiative to do that.

就像刚才我说的，针对这一领域， 德国刚刚开始了一项重大的新计划。

I think they're pointing the way for the rest of the world.

我认为他们正在 为世界其他国家指明方向。

Now, where building retrofits are concerned, just a moment on this,

现在，我们来稍微 谈一下建筑改造,

because about 20 to 25 percent of the global warming pollution

因为在全球和美国，

造成全球变暖的排放物中， 约 20 - 25 %

in the world and in the US

comes from inefficient buildings

是来自个人和企业

that were constructed by companies and individuals

为了在市场上保持竞争力

who were trying to be competitive in the marketplace

和保持自己的高利润

and keep their margins acceptably high

所建造的低效建筑 （inefficient buildings），

and thereby skimping on insulation and the right windows

因此，在绝缘材料， 节能窗户、LED 灯和其他方面

and LEDs and the rest.

投入就相对较少。

And yet the person or company that buys that building

然而购买或租赁大楼的

or leases that building,

个人或公司，

则希望每月的水电费 尽可能的少。

they want their monthly utility bills much lower.

So there are now ways

所以现在有办法

去解决所谓的代理问题 （agent-principal），

to close that so-called agent-principal divide,

the differing incentives for the builder and occupier,

拥有针对建造者和所有者的 不同激励机制，

and we can retrofit buildings with a program that literally pays for itself

我们确确实实可以创建一个

能在 3 到 5 年内 回本的模式，

over three to five years,

and we could put tens of millions of people to work

并且我们可以为 数千万的人提供

in jobs that by definition cannot be outsourced

不用外包的工作，

because they exist in every single community.

因为它们存在于每个社区中。

And we really ought to get serious about doing this,

我们真的应该认真地做这件事，

because we're going to need all those jobs

因为我们需要所有这些工作，

to get sustainable prosperity in the aftermath of this pandemic.

以在这次的疫情后 实现可持续的繁荣。

克里斯·安德森： 让我们回到你刚刚提到的氢经济，

CA: Just going back to the hydrogen economy

that you referred to there,

when some people hear that,

当有些人听到这个概念，

they think, "Oh, are you talking about hydrogen-fueled cars?"

他们会想，

“哦，你是在说氢燃料汽车吗?”

And they've heard that that probably won't be a winning strategy.

他们听说这可能 不是一个会成功的策略。

But you're thinking much more broadly than that, I think,

但是你的眼界要比他们更宽广,

我认为, 这不仅仅是因为氢是一种

that it's not just hydrogen as a kind of storage mechanism

为可再生能源作缓冲的存储机制,

to act as a buffer for renewable energy,

而且氢气对于钢铁和水泥

but also hydrogen could be essential

for some of the other processes in the economy like making steel,

这样的一些其他经济领域来说,

making cement,

也是至关重要的，

that are fundamentally carbon-intensive processes right now

这些现在基本上还是 碳密集型的项目,

but could be transformed if we had much cheaper sources of hydrogen.

如果我们有更廉价的氢能源， 这些完全可以改变。

Is that right?

我说的对吗？

AG: Yes, I was always skeptical about hydrogen, Chris,

阿尔·戈尔：是的， 我一直对氢持怀疑态度，克里斯，

principally because it's been so expensive to make it,

主要是因为制造它的成本太高了，

就像他们说的， “从水里裂解出来”。

to "crack it out of water," as they say.

But the game-changer has been

但是大量的太阳能和风能

the incredible abundance of solar and wind electricity

改变了这一现状，

in volumes and amounts that people didn't expect,

这是人们没有预料到的，

and all of a sudden, it's cheap enough to use

而且突然之间，

它们的成本也降低到 能够用于能源密集的项目，

for these very energy-intensive processes

比如制造绿色氢。

like creating green hydrogen.

I'm still a bit skeptical about using it in vehicles.

但我仍有点怀疑 氢能源在交通工具上能否推广。

Toyota's been betting on that for 25 years and it hasn't really worked for them.

丰田在这方面逆行了 25 年的研究， 但他们并没有成功。

并不是说不可能， 也许他们会成功，

Never say never, maybe it will,

but I think it's most useful for these high-temperature industrial processes,

但我认为氢能源对这些 高温工业过程的用处最大，

and we already have a pathway for decarbonizing transportation

而且我们已经有了一条

用电力进行脱碳运输的途径，

with electricity

而且其运行效果非常好。

that's working extremely well.

Tesla's going to be soon the most valuable automobile company in the world,

特斯拉很快就会成为世界上 最有价值的汽车公司，

它在美国已经是 最有价值的汽车公司了，

already in the US,

and they're about to overtake Toyota.

而且他们即将在世界上超过丰田。

There is now a semitruck company that's been stood up by Tesla

现在有一家由特斯拉赞助的 单轴拖车公司，

and another that is going to be a hybrid with electricity and green hydrogen,

还有一家制造 电力和绿色氢的混合动力车的公司，

so we'll see whether or not they can make it work in that application.

所以我们会看看他们 是否能在这个方面取得成功。

But I think electricity is preferable for cars and trucks.

但是我认为电力驱动 是汽车和卡车的首选。

CA: We're coming to some community questions in a minute.

克里斯·安德森：我们稍后 会回答一些观众的提问。

Let me ask you, though, about nuclear.

我还想问一下关于核能的问题。

Some environmentalists believe that nuclear,

一些环保主义者认为，

or maybe new generation nuclear power

如果我们是要获得 真正干净的未来，

is an essential part of the equation

是使用着清洁能源的未来，

if we're to get to a truly clean future,

那么核能或者新一代的核动力

a clean energy future.

就是其中的重要因素。

Are you still pretty skeptical on nuclear, Al?

阿尔，你是否对核能 仍然十分怀疑呢？

AG: Well, the market's skeptical about it, Chris.

阿尔·戈尔：其实是市场 对核能抱怀疑态度，克里斯。

It's been a crushing disappointment for me and for so many.

我和其他很多人 都对其感到非常失望。

I used to represent Oak Ridge, where nuclear energy began,

当核能刚起步时，我曾代表过 最早研究核能的橡树岭国家实验室。

and when I was a young congressman,

当我还是一名年轻的议员时，

I was a booster.

我曾是核能的热心拥护者。

I was very enthusiastic about it.

我过去对此非常有热情。

But the cost overruns

但是其成本的超标，

and the problems in building these plants

以及核电厂内的各种问题

have become so severe

已经严重到电力公司

that utilities just don't have an appetite for them.

都开始对核能失去了兴趣 。

It's become the most expensive source of electricity.

核能已变为了 成本最高的电力来源。

Now, let me hasten to add that there are some older nuclear reactors

我现在还想补充一下， 一些旧的核反应堆有着更长的

that have more useful time that could be added onto their lifetimes.

可以被添加到它们现有 使用寿命上的有效使用时间。

And like a lot of environmentalists,

正如许多环保主义者一样，

I've come to the view that if they can be determined to be safe,

我认为这些旧的反应堆 如果可以被判定是安全的，

they should be allowed to continue operating for a time.

那么它们应该被允许 继续运行一段时间。

But where new nuclear power plants are concerned,

但是，新的核电站担心的是，

here's a way to look at it.

我们可以这样看待这个问题：

If you are -- you've been a CEO, Chris.

克里斯，你曾经就担任过 CEO，

If you were the CEO of -- I guess you still are.

如果你是公司的 CEO—— 我猜你现在还是。

If you were the CEO of an electric utility,

假设你是 一家电力公司的 CEO，

and you told your executive team,

你告诉高层管理团队，

"I want to build a nuclear power plant,"

“我想建一个核能发电厂，”

two of the first questions you would ask are, number one:

两个你首先会问的问题， 第一个是：

How much will it cost?

建发电厂要花多少钱？

And there's not a single engineering consulting firm

在全世界范围内， 我都还没有找到任何一家

that I've been able to find anywhere in the world

会对他们的意见负责的

that will put their name on an opinion

工程咨询公司，

giving you a cost estimate.

会给你做一个成本估算。

They just don't know.

因为他们根本不知道答案。

A second question you would ask is:

第二个你会问的问题是：

How long will it take to build it, so we can start selling the electricity?

建成和可以开始输出电力 需要多长时间？

And again, the answer you will get is,

同样的，你将会得到的答案是，

"We have no idea."

“我们不知道。”

So if you don't know how much it's going to cost,

所以如果你不知道其耗资是多少，

and you don't know when it's going to be finished,

也不知道竣工的时间，

and you already know that the electricity is more expensive

同时你已经知道 通过核能得到的电力

than the alternate ways to produce it,

比其它方法的生产成本更高，

that's going to be a little discouraging,

这有点令人沮丧，

and, in fact, that's been the case for utilities around the world.

而且事实上， 世界各地都是这样的。

CA: OK.

克里斯·安德森：是的。

So there's definitely an interesting debate there,

所以这中间显然 存在一个有趣的争议，

but we're going to come on to some community questions.

但是我们接下来 会讨论一些观众的提问。

Let's have the first of those questions up, please.

让我们来看看第一个问题。

From Prosanta Chakrabarty:

普罗桑塔·查克拉巴蒂 （Prosanta Chakrabarty）问道：

"People who are skeptical of COVID and of climate change

“对冠状病毒病以及气候变化 持怀疑态度的人们

seem to be skeptical of science in general.

似乎通常也怀疑科学。

It may be that the singular message from scientists

可能是这些从科学家那里 得到的重大信息

gets diluted and convoluted.

被稀释了，或者过于晦涩难懂。

How do we fix that?"

我们该如何补救呢？”

AG: Yeah, that's a great question, Prosanta.

阿尔·戈尔：普罗桑塔的 这个问题很好。

Boy, I'm trying to put this succinctly and shortly.

我得想想怎么能 解释得更简明扼要。

I think that there has been

我认为有这样一种感觉，

a feeling that experts in general

专家们这个群体让美国失望了，

have kind of let the US down,

and that feeling is much more pronounced in the US than in most other countries.

这种感觉在美国

比在大多数其他国家更明显。

And I think that the considered opinion of what we call experts

我认为，在过去的几十年里，

我们所谓的“专家们 经过深思熟虑的观点”

has been diluted over the last few decades

已经被我们政治体系中 不健康的资金所稀释，

by the unhealthy dominance of big money in our political system,

which has found ways to really twist economic policy

这些钱使精英们扭曲经济政策，

to benefit elites.

以使自己受益。

And this sounds a little radical,

这听起来有点激进，

but it's actually what has happened.

但事实就是如此。

And we have gone for more than 40 years

过去的 40 多年间，

without any meaningful increase in middle-income pay,

中产阶级的收入 几乎没有明显的增长，

and where the injustice experienced by African Americans

黑人和其他有色人种群体

and other communities of color are concerned,

所受到的不公待遇很令人担忧，

the differential in pay between African Americans and majority Americans

而且非裔美国人 与大多数美国人现在的

工资、财富

和净财产的差异

is the same as it was in 1968,

与 1968 年相比几乎毫无变化——

and the family wealth,

一个所谓的“典型” 美国白人家庭的净资产

the net worth --

it takes 11 and a half so-called "typical" African American families

是所谓的“典型” 美国黑人家庭的 11.5 倍。

to make up the net worth of one so-called "typical" White American family.

And you look at the soaring incomes

当你看到那些

最富有的人，或者 最富有的十分之一的人的收入飙升时，

in the top one or the top one-tenth of one percent,

and people say, "Wait a minute.

人们会说，“等一下。

Whoever the experts were that designed these policies,

不管设计这些政策的专家是谁，

they haven't been doing a good job for me."

他们并没有为我服务。”

A final point, Chris:

克里斯，最后一点：

there has been an assault on reason.

这是对理性的攻击。

There has been a war against truth.

这是一场反对真理的斗争。

There has been a strategy,

有一种策略，

maybe it was best known as a strategy decades ago by the tobacco companies

其最有名的例子也许是 几十年前烟草公司雇佣演员，

who hired actors and dressed them up as doctors to falsely reassure people

把他们打扮成医生，错误地向

that there were no health consequences from smoking cigarettes,

人们保证吸烟 不会对健康造成影响，

and a hundred million people died as a result.

结果导致 1 亿人死亡。

That same strategy of diminishing the significance of truth,

就像有人说的那样， 这是一个

削弱真理的重要性， 削弱知识权威性的策略，

diminishing, as someone said, the authority of knowledge,

I think that has made it kind of open season

我认为，这让任何 难以忽视的真相

on any inconvenient truth -- forgive another buzz phrase,

都成了公开的话题—— 请原谅这个时髦的说法，

but it is apt.

但这很恰当。

We cannot abandon our devotion to the best available evidence

我们不能放弃去寻找

在合理的资源下检验

tested in reasoned discourse

作为我们所能够制定的 最佳政策的基础的

and used as the basis

for the best policies we can form.

最佳证据。

CA: Is it possible, Al, that one consequence of the pandemic

克里斯·安德森： 阿尔，有没有可能

大流行的一个后果 就是越来越多的人

is actually a growing number of people

have revisited their opinions on scientists?

开始重新审视 他们对科学家的看法?

I mean, you've had a chance in the last few months to say,

毕竟，几个月前人们有机会说，

“我应该相信政客对病毒的言论，

"Do I trust my political leader or do I trust this scientist

还是相信科学家

in terms of what they're saying

about this virus?"

对这种病毒的言论?”

Maybe lessons from that could be carried forward?

也许从中吸取的教训 可以使我们继续前进?

AG: Well, you know, I think if the polling is accurate,

阿尔·戈尔： 如果民调数据是准确的，

people do trust their doctors a lot more than some of the politicians

那么我认为人们 确实会更加相信医生，

而非一些对假装大流行病不存在 似乎有着既得利益的政客。

who seem to have a vested interest in pretending the pandemic isn't real.

And if you look at the incredible bust

如果你看看 特朗普总统在塔尔萨的集会上

at President Trump's rally in Tulsa,

令人难以置信的场面，

a stadium of 19,000 people with less than one-third filled,

根据消防局长的数据，

一个 19000 人的体育场里 只有不到三分之一的人,

according to the fire marshal,

you saw all the empty seats if you saw the news clips,

可以在新闻里看到 体育馆里很多的空位，

so even the most loyal Trump supporters

所以即使是 最忠诚的特朗普支持者

must have decided to trust their doctors and the medical advice

也一定更相信 医生和医学上的建议,

rather than Dr. Donald Trump.

而不是 “唐纳德·特朗普医生”。

CA: With a little help from the TikTok generation, perchance.

克里斯·安德森： 也许是在抖音一代的帮助下。

AG: Well, but that didn't affect the turnout.

阿尔·戈尔：（笑） 但这并没有影响投票率。

What they did, very cleverly, and I'm cheering them on,

他们的做法让我 不得不拍手叫好，

what they did was affect the Trump White House's expectations.

他们的行为影响了 特朗普政府的预期。

They're the reason why he went out a couple days beforehand

这就是为什么 他提前几天大肆宣扬，

and said, "We've had a million people sign up."

“我们已经有100万人注册了。”

But they didn't prevent --

但是他们没有阻止——

they didn't take seats that others could have otherwise taken.

他们没有成功占据足够的位置，

They didn't affect the turnout, just the expectations.

他们没有影响投票率， 只是影响了人们的期望。

CA: OK, let's have our next question here.

克里斯·安德森： 好的，我们来看看下一个问题。

"Are you concerned the world will rush back to the use of the private car

“你是否担心，由于害怕使用 共享的公共交通工具，

out of fear of using shared public transportation?"

全世界都将重新使用私家车?”

AG: Well, that could actually be one of the consequences, absolutely.

阿尔·戈尔： 当然，这可能是其中一个结果。

Now, the trends on mass transit

目前，由于优步、Lyft 和拼车服务的出现，

were already inching in the wrong direction

公共交通的趋势

because of Uber and Lyft and the ridesharing services,

已经在朝着错误的方向缓慢发展，

and if autonomy ever reaches the goals that its advocates have hoped for

如果自动驾驶真的达到了 它的倡导者所希望的目标，

then that may also have a similar effect.

那可能也会产生类似的效果。

But there's no doubt that some people

但毫无疑问，一些人可能会

are going to be probably a little more reluctant

更不愿意乘坐公共交通工具，

to take mass transportation

直到他们对流感大流行的恐惧

until the fear of this pandemic is well and truly gone.

完全消失。

CA: Yeah. Might need a vaccine on that one.

克里斯·安德森：对，我们可能 需要能够消除恐惧的疫苗

AG: (Laughs) Yeah.

阿尔·戈尔： （笑） 对。

CA: Next question.

克里斯·安德森： 下一个问题。

Sonaar Luthra, thank you for this question from LA.

索纳尔·路斯拉（Sonaar Luthra）， 谢谢你从洛杉矶发来的问题。

"Given the temperature rise in the Arctic this past week,

“考虑到过去一周 北极气温的上升，

seems like the rate we are losing our carbon sinks

看起来我们失去

like permafrost or forests

永冻层或森林等碳汇的速度

is accelerating faster than we predicted.

似乎比我们预计的要快。

Are our models too focused on human emissions?"

我们的模型 是否过于关注人类排放了?”

Interesting question.

很有趣的问题。

阿尔·戈尔： 这个模型关注的是导致北极圈

AG: Well, the models are focused on the factors that have led

to these incredible temperature spikes

这些令人难以置信的 温度峰值的因素。

in the north of the Arctic Circle.

They were predicted, they have been predicted,

他们预测的

and one of the reasons for it

其中一个原因是,

is that as the snow and ice cover melts,

随着冰雪融化,

the sun's incoming rays are no longer reflected back into space

太阳的入射光线

不再是以90 % 的速率

at a 90 percent rate,

反射回太空，

and instead, when they fall on the dark tundra or the dark ocean,

相反，当阳光落在 黑色的苔原或者黑色的海洋,

they're absorbed at a 90 percent rate.

它们被吸收速率是 90 %。

So that's a magnifier of the warming in the Arctic,

所以北极变暖的扩大，

and this has been predicted.

已经被预测到了。

There are a number of other consequences that are also in the models,

模型中还存在许多其他后果，

but some of them may have to be recalibrated.

但其中一些可能需要重新校准。

The scientists are freshly concerned

科学家们最近开始担心，

that the emissions of both CO2 and methane

冻土带解冻所产生的

from the thawing tundra

二氧化碳和甲烷的排放量

could be larger than they had hoped they would be.

可能比他们预期的要大。

There's also just been a brand-new study.

还有一项全新的研究。

I won't spend time on this,

虽然我不会在这上面花时间，

because it deals with a kind of geeky term called "climate sensitivity,"

因为它涉及到一个叫 “气候敏感性”的令人讨厌的术语，

which has been a factor in the models with large error bars

这一直是模型中 一个有很大误差的因素，

because it's so hard to pin down.

因为它很难被确定。

But the latest evidence indicates, worryingly,

但令人担忧的是， 最新的证据表明，

that the sensitivity may be greater than they had thought,

敏感性可能比他们想象的要高，

and we will have an even more daunting task.

我们将面临一项更艰巨的任务。

That shouldn't discourage us.

这不应该使我们气馁。

I truly believe that once we cross this tipping point,

我确信，一旦我们 越过了这个临界点，

and I do believe we're doing it now,

而且我确信我们会越过，

as I've said,

就像我说过的，

then I think we're going to find a lot of ways

之后我认为我们会找到很多方法

to speed up the emissions reductions.

来加速减排。

CA: We'll take one more question from the community.

我们再回答一个观众提问。

Haha. "Geoengineering is making extraordinary progress.

这个有意思： “地球工程正在取得非凡的进展。

Exxon is investing in technology from Global Thermostat

Exxon 正在投资 Global Thermostat 公司的

that seems promising.

一项似乎有很有前景的技术。

What do you think of these air and water carbon capture technologies?"

你怎么看 这些空气和水的碳捕获技术?”

Stephen Petranek.

来自斯蒂芬·彼得拉内克 （Stephen Petranek）。

AG: Yeah. Well, you and I have talked about this before, Chris.

阿尔·戈尔：好的。 我们以前谈过这个问题，克里斯。

I've been strongly opposed

我一直强烈反对

to conducting an unplanned global experiment

进行一项可能出现

严重错误的无计划的全球实验，

that could go wildly wrong,

and most are really scared of that approach.

而且大多数人 真的很害怕这种方法。

However, the term "geoengineering" is a nuanced term that covers a lot.

然而，“地球工程”是个 微妙的术语，其涵盖了很多内容。

If you want to paint roofs white to reflect more energy

如果你想把屋顶刷成白色，

以反射更多来自城市的能量，

from the cityscapes,

that's not going to bring a danger of a runaway effect,

这不会带来失控效应的危险，

and there are some other things

一些其他类似的，

that are loosely called "geoengineering" like that, which are fine.

被宽泛地称为“地球工程”的项目， 通常是没有问题的。

But the idea of blocking out the sun's rays --

但是阻挡太阳光线的想法——

that's insane in my opinion.

在我看来是疯狂的。

Turns out plants need sunlight for photosynthesis

植物需要光照来进行光合作用，

and solar panels need sunlight

太阳能电板

for producing electricity from the sun's rays.

也需要光照来发电。

And the consequences of changing everything we know

而改变我们所知道的一切

and pretending that the consequences are going to precisely cancel out

并假装这些后果将恰好抵消

the unplanned experiment of global warming that we already have underway,

我们已经在进行的关于 全球变暖的无计划实验的后果，

you know, there are glitches in our thinking.

要知道，我们的想法中 有一些小的缺陷。

One of them is called the "single solution bias,"

其中一种缺陷 被称为“单一解决方案偏见”，

and there are people who just have a hunger to say,

有些人就会迫不及待地说，

"Well, that one solution, we just need to latch on to that and do that,

“好吧，那种解决方案， 我们只需要依靠它，然后去做，

and damn the consequences."

让产生的后果见鬼去吧。”

Well, it's nuts.

这太疯狂了。

CA: But let me push back on this just a little bit.

克里斯·安德森： 让我再解释一下，

So let's say that we agree that a single solution,

假设我们一致认为，

all-or-nothing attempt at geoengineering is crazy.

在地球工程上孤注一掷的 单一解决方案是疯狂的。

But there are scenarios where the world looks at emissions and just sees,

但是在一些情况下， 当世界停下来观察排放物时会发现，

in 10 years' time, let's say,

比方说在 10 年里，

that they are just not coming down fast enough

它们下降速度就是不够快,

and that we are at risk of several other liftoff events

并且我们还面临着 其他几个棘手的问题

where this train will just get away from us,

使这个机遇离我们而去，

and we will see temperature rises of three, four, five, six, seven degrees,

我们会看到温度 上升 3、4、5、6、7 度，

and all of civilization is at risk.

整个文明都处于危险之中。

Surely, there is an approach to geoengineering

当然，在某种程度上，

that could be modeled, in a way, on the way that we approach medicine.

有一种方法可以处理地球工程， 就像我们处理医学一样。

Like, for hundreds of years, we don't really understand the human body,

比如说，几百年来， 我们并不真正了解人体，

people would try interventions,

人们尝试干预人体，

and some of them would work, and some of them wouldn't.

有些有效，有些无效。

医学界没有人会说，

No one says in medicine, "You know,

go in and take an all-or-nothing decision

“我们要去做一个孤注一掷的决定，

来决定一个人的生活，”

on someone's life,"

but they do say, "Let's try some stuff."

而是会说，“让我们尝试一些东西。”

If an experiment can be reversible,

如果一个实验是可逆的，

if it's plausible in the first place,

如果它在一开始就看似合理，

if there's reason to think that it might work,

如果有理由认为它可能会起作用，

we actually owe it to the future health of humanity

为了人类未来的健康，

to try at least some types of tests to see what could work.

我们实际上应该尝试 一些类型的试验，看看能否成功。

So, small tests to see whether, for example,

所以，一些小测试， 比如说，

seeding of something in the ocean

以一种没有威胁的方式，

在海洋中播种某种物质，

might create, in a nonthreatening way,

carbon sinks.

看看是否会产生碳汇。

Or maybe, rather than filling the atmosphere with sulfur dioxide,

或者，与其让大气中 充满二氧化硫，

a smaller experiment that was not that big a deal

不如做一个经济实惠的小实验，

to see whether, cost-effectively, you could reduce the temperature a little bit.

来看看是否可以降低一点温度。

Surely, that isn't completely crazy

当然，这不是完全疯狂的，

and is at least something we should be thinking about

至少我们应该考虑一下，

in case these other measures don't work?

以防这些其他的措施不起作用?

AG: Well, there've already been such experiments

阿尔·戈尔: 事实上已经有这样的实验，

to seed the ocean

人们在海洋中“播种”海洋植物，

to see if that can increase the uptake of CO2.

看看是否能吸收更多的二氧化碳。

And the experiments were an unmitigated failure,

正如许多人预测的那样，

这些实验完全失败了。

as many predicted they would be.

But that, again, is the kind of approach

但是，这是一种

与在地球的大气层中

that's very different

from putting tinfoil strips in the atmosphere orbiting the Earth.

放置锡箔条非常不同的方法。

That was the way that solar geoengineering proposal started.

那是太阳地球工程提出的方式。

Now they're focusing on chalk,

现在他们关注的是粉笔，

so we have chalk dust all over everything.

所有的东西上都有粉笔灰。

But more serious than that is the fact that it might not be reversible.

但更严重的是， 它可能是不可逆的。

CA: But, Al, that's the rhetoric response.

克里斯·安德森：但是，阿尔， 这只是言辞上的回应。

The amount of dust that you need

你所需要减少的 一到两度的灰尘量

to drop by a degree or two

不会导致所有东西

wouldn't result in chalk dust over everything.

都被粉笔尘覆盖。

It would be unbelievably --

这将是难以置信的——

like, it would be less than the dust that people experience every day, anyway.

比如说，这会比 人们每天接触的灰尘要少得多。

I mean, I just --

我的意思是，我认为——

AG: First of all, I don't know how you do a small experiment

阿尔·戈尔：首先， 我不知道如何在大气中

in the atmosphere.

做一个小实验。

And secondly,

其次，

如果我们要采取这种方法，

if we were to take that approach,

we would have to steadily increase the amount

我们就必须稳步增加

他们决定的任何物质的数量。

of whatever substance they decided.

We'd have to increase it every single year,

我们必须每一年 都增加这个数量，

如果我们停止了，

and if we ever stopped,

那么它就会突然反弹，

then there would be a sudden snapback,

就像那本老书和那部老电影，

like "The Picture of Dorian Gray," that old book and movie,

《道林·格雷的照片》 (The Picture of Dorian Gray) 里的场景。

where suddenly all of the things caught up with you at once.

The fact that anyone is even considering these approaches, Chris,

有人甚至已经在考虑 这些方法的这个事实，

克里斯，体现出的是 一种绝望的感觉，

is a measure of a feeling of desperation

that some have begun to feel,

一些人已经开始感到绝望，

which I understand,

这我理解，

but I don't think it should drive us toward these reckless experiments.

但我认为它不应该促使我们 进行这些鲁莽的实验。

And by the way, using your analogy to experimental cancer treatments,

顺便说一下， 我在这里做个类比，

比方说对于癌症治疗实验，

for example,

you usually get informed consent from the patient.

你通常会得到病人的知情同意。

Getting informed consent from 7.8 billion people

想让 78 亿无法表达自己观点的人

who have no voice and no say,

who are subject to the potentially catastrophic consequences

去同意接受

一个可能需要他们承受 潜在的灾难性后果的

of this wackadoodle proposal that somebody comes up with

疯狂的提议，

试图重新构造 整个地球的大气层，

to try to rearrange the entire Earth's atmosphere

and hope and pretend that it's going to cancel out,

并假装希望 它会抵消掉所有的后果，

但事实上，

the fact that we're putting 152 million tons

我们每天向大气

排放 1.52 亿吨的 人造温室气体——

of heat-trapping, manmade global warming pollution

into the sky every day.

That's what's really insane.

这真的很疯狂。

A scientist decades ago

几十年前，

一位科学家做过这样比较。

compared it this way.

He said, if you had two people on a sinking boat

他说，如果两个人 坐在正在晃动下沉的船里,

and one of them says,

其中一个人说,

"You know, we could probably use some mirrors to signal to shore

“我们可以用镜子 来反射一些信号到岸上，

to get them to build

告诉人们去建造一个

a sophisticated wave-generating machine

可以抵消在船后的人制造出的

that will cancel out the rocking of the boat

摇摆效应的

by these guys in the back of the boat."

精密的波浪制造仪。”

Or you could get them to stop rocking the boat.

但是你明明可以 直接停止晃动这个船。

And that's what we need to do. We need to stop what's causing the crisis.

这就是我们需要做的。 我们需要阻止可能引发危机的因素。

克里斯·安德森： 这故事听上去不错。

CA: Yeah, that's a great story,

but if the effort to stop the people rocking in the back of the boat

但如果让船后的人 去停止摇晃船

is as complex as the scientific proposal you just outlined,

和你列出的科学建议 一样复杂，

whereas the experiment to stop the waves

也就是说，如果停止晃动的实验

is actually as simple as telling the people to stop rocking the boat,

和告诉后面的人 不要晃动船身一样简单，

that story changes.

那就完全是另一个故事了。

And I think you're right that the issue of informed consent

我认为你对于 征求人们的同意这个问题

非常具有挑战性的见解是对的，

is a really challenging one,

but, I mean, no one gave informed consent

但是我认为，没有人同意

to do all of the other things we're doing to the atmosphere.

去做我们正在 对气候做的所有其他事情。

And I agree that the moral hazard issue

我同意道德风险问题

是非常令人担忧的，

is worrying,

that if we became dependent on geoengineering

如果我们变得依赖于地球工程

and took away our efforts to do the rest,

而不去做其他的事情，

那就非常可悲了。

that would be tragic.

It just seems like,

我觉得，

I wish it was possible to have a nuanced debate

我希望能有一场细致入微的辩论，

of people saying, you know what,

人们会说，你知道吗，

there's multiple dials to a very complex problem.

这是一个非常复杂的问题， 存在很多因素。

We're going to have to adjust several of them very, very carefully

我们必须非常非常 小心地调整其中的几个，

and keep talking to each other.

然后保持相互交流。

我们的目标难道不是

Wouldn't that be a goal

to just try and have a more nuanced debate about this,

应该就这个问题 进行更细致的讨论，

rather than all of that geoengineering

而不是草率断言 所有的地球工程

can't work?

都行不通吗？

AG: Well, I've said some of it,

阿尔·戈尔：好吧， 我已经说了其中的一些，

you know, the benign forms that I've mentioned,

我提到的那些良性的形式，

I'm not ruling those out.

我不排除它们。

But blocking the Sun's rays from the Earth,

但是阻挡太阳光这种事，

not only do you affect 7.8 billion people,

不仅仅会影响 78 亿人，

you affect the plants

也会影响植物、

and the animals

动物、

and the ocean currents

洋流、

and the wind currents

风流，

and natural processes

以及可能会破坏

that we're in danger of disrupting even more.

更多的自然过程。

Techno-optimism is something I've engaged in in the past,

我过去是一个技术乐观主义者,

but to latch on to some brand-new technological solution

但是总有人认为自己很聪明，

to rework the entire Earth's natural system

觉得自己可以抓住一些 全新的技术解决方案，

because somebody thinks he's clever enough

重塑整个地球的自然系统,

to do it in a way that precisely cancels out

并精确抵消其后果，

the consequences of using the atmosphere as an open sewer

然后利用大气作为

for heat-trapping manmade gases.

露天下水道温室人造气体。

It's much more important to stop using the atmosphere as an open sewer.

更重要的是，不要再 把大气当作露天下水道。

That's what the problem is.

这就是问题所在。

CA: All right, well, we'll agree that that is the most important thing, for sure,

克里斯·安德森：是的， 我们都同意这是最重要的事情，

当然，说到这一点，

and speaking of which,

do you believe the world needs carbon pricing,

你认为世界需要碳定价吗?

and is there any prospect for getting there?

有可能实现吗?

AG: Yes. Yes to both questions.

阿尔·戈尔： 我对这两个问题的答案都是肯定的。

For decades, almost every economist

几十年来， 几乎所有

who is asked about the climate crisis

关心环境危机的经济学家

says, "Well, we just need to put a price on carbon."

都会说：“我们应该给碳定价。”

And I have certainly been in favor of that approach.

我当然支持这种方法。

But it is daunting.

但听起来有点吓人。

Nevertheless, there are 43 jurisdictions around the world

尽管如此，

世界上仍有 43 个司法管辖区 已经对碳排放进行了定价。

that already have a price on carbon.

We're seeing it in Europe.

我们在欧洲看到了这种情况，

They finally straightened out their carbon pricing mechanism.

他们最终理顺了碳定价机制。

It's an emissions trading version of it.

这是一个碳排放交易版本。

We have places that have put a tax on carbon.

世界上已经有一些地方 对碳排放征税了。

That's the approach the economists prefer.

这是经济学家更喜欢的办法。

China is beginning to implement its national emissions trading program.

中国正在开始实施 国家排放权交易计划。

California and quite a few other states in the US are already doing it.

加州和美国其他几个州 已经开始这样做了。

It can be given back to people in a revenue-neutral way.

它可以以一种 收入中立的方式返还给人们。

But the opposition to it, Chris, which you've noted,

但是，克里斯， 你刚才提到的反对意见，

is impressive enough that we do have to take other approaches,

已经足够令人印象深刻， 我们不得不采取其他方法，

and I would say most climate activists are now saying, look,

我想说，大多数 气候活动人士现在都在说，

let's don't make the best the enemy of the better.

我们不要让“最好” 成为“更好”的敌人。

There are other ways to do this as well.

当然，对这件事 还有其他解决方法。

We need every solution we can rationally employ,

我们需要一切 可以合理采用的解决方案，

including by regulation.

包括监管。

And often, when the political difficulty of a proposal becomes too difficult

通常情况下， 当一项提议的政治难度

in a market-oriented approach,

在市场导向的方法中 变得过于困难时，

the fallback is with regulation,

可以用监管作为退路，

and it's been given a bad name, regulation,

尽管“监管”这个词的名声不太好，

but many places are doing it.

但很多地方都在这么做。

I mentioned phasing out internal combustion engines.

我提到过逐步淘汰内燃机。

That's an example.

这是一个例子。

There are 160 cities in the US

美国有 160 个城市 已经根据规定，

that have already by regulation ordered that within a date certain,

在一个确定的日期内，

100 percent of all their electricity will have to come from renewable sources.

他们所有的电力来源必须 采用 100% 可再生能源。

And again, the market forces that are driving the cost of renewable energy

就像我刚才说的， 推动可再生能源和

and sustainability solutions ever downward,

可持续性解决成本的方案的

that gives us the wind at our back.

市场力量，

This is working in our favor.

给我们提供了支持。

CA: I mean, the pushback on carbon pricing

克里斯·安德森： 对碳定价的抵制通常会

often goes further from parts of the environmental movement,

从环保运动的一部分

which is to a pushback on the role of business in general.

延伸到对商业角色的抵制。

Business is actually -- well, capitalism -- is blamed

事实上，由于持续的经济增长，

for the climate crisis

商业——或者说资本主义——

because of unrelenting growth,

被指责为气候危机的罪魁祸首，

to the point where many people don't trust business

以至于许多人都不相信

商业是解决气候危机的一部分。

to be part of the solution.

The only way to go forward is to regulate,

前进的唯一途径就是监管，

to force businesses to do the right thing.

迫使企业做正确的事情。

Do you think that business has to be part of the solution?

你认为商业必须是 解决方案的一部分吗?

AG: Well, definitely,

阿尔·戈尔：当然，

because the allocation of capital needed to solve this crisis

因为解决这场危机 所需的资本配置，

is greater than what governments can handle.

超出了政府的能力范围。

And businesses are beginning,

很多企业

many businesses are beginning to play a very constructive role.

开始发挥建设性的作用。

They're getting a demand that they do so

他们的客户、

from their customers, from their investors,

投资者、董事会、

from their boards,

管理团队和家人

from their executive teams, from their families.

都要求他们这么做。

And by the way,

顺便说一下，

the rising generation is demanding a brighter future,

年轻一代要求更光明的未来，

and when CEOs interview potential new hires,

当 CEO 们面试新员工时，

they find that the new hires are interviewing them.

他们发现新员工 同时也在面试他们。

They want to make a nice income,

他们想要一份不错的收入，

but they want to be able to tell their family and friends and peers

但他们想要能够 告诉他们的家人、朋友和同龄人，

that they're doing something more than just making money.

他们所做的不仅仅是赚钱。

One illustration of how this new generation is changing, Chris:

我来举一个新一代 是如何改变的例子，克里斯:

there are 65 colleges in the US right now

现在美国有 65 所大学的

where the College Young Republican Clubs have joined together

年轻共和党俱乐部 正在联合起来，

to jointly demand that the Republican National Committee

共同要求共和党全国委员会

change its policy on climate,

改变其气候政策，

lest they lose that entire generation.

以免他们失去这一代人。

This is a global phenomenon.

这是一个全球都有的现象。

The Greta Generation is now leading this

现在，格蕾塔（Greta Thunberg） 一代在很多方面

in so many ways,

都在领导着这一切。

and if you look at the polling,

如果你看看民调，

again, the vast majority of young Republicans

你会发现，

绝大多数年轻的共和党人 都在要求改变气候政策。

are demanding a change on climate policy.

This is really a movement

这是一场

that is building still.

仍在发展中的运动。

CA: I was going to ask you about that,

克里斯·安德森： 我正想问你这个问题，

因为在过去的 20 年里，

because one of the most painful things over the last 20 years

has just been how climate has been politicized,

最痛苦的事情之一就是 气候如何被政治化了，

certainly in the US.

在美国尤其如此。

You've probably felt yourself at the heart of that a lot of the time,

很多时候，你可能会觉得 你自己处于这种情绪的中心，

人们常常会用

with people attacking you personally

最无情、最不公平的方式来攻击你

in the most merciless, and unfair ways, often.

Do you really see signs that that might be changing,

你看到了这种情况 在下一代的领导下

led by the next generation?

可能发生改变的迹象吗?

AG: Yeah, there's no question about it.

阿尔·戈尔： 没错，毫无疑问。

I don't want to rely on polls too much.

我不想过于依靠民调。

I've mentioned them already.

我刚才提到过了。

But there was a new one that came out

但有一份

that looked at the wavering Trump supporters,

针对那些摇摆不定的 特朗普支持者的新民调，

those who supported him strongly in the past

那些人过去曾大力支持特朗普，

and want to do so again.

现在想再次支持他。

The number one issue, surprisingly to some,

让一些人感到意外的是，

that is giving them pause,

让他们踌躇的头号问题是

is the craziness of President Trump and his administration on climate.

特朗普总统和他的政府 在气候问题上的疯狂政策。

We're seeing big majorities of the Republican Party overall

我们看到绝大多数 共和党人都表示，

saying that they're ready to start exploring some real solutions

他们准备开始探索

一些解决气候危机的真正办法。

to the climate crisis.

I think that we're really getting there, no question about it.

毫无疑问，我认为 我们正在朝着这个目标迈进。

CA: I mean, you've been the figurehead for raising this issue,

克里斯·安德森： 你一直是这方面的倡导者，

and you happen to be a Democrat.

而你恰好也是民主党人。

Is there anything that you can personally do

你会不会试着 敞开怀抱，拥抱大众，

to -- I don't know -- to open the tent, to welcome people,

并试着说，

to try and say, "This is beyond politics, dear friends"?

“亲爱的朋友们， 这个问题已经超越了政治”?

AG: Yeah. Well, I've tried all of those things,

阿尔·戈尔： 是的，这些我都试过了，

and maybe it's made a little positive difference.

也许产生了一些积极的影响。

I've worked with the Republicans extensively.

我和共和党人有过广泛的合作。

And, you know, well after I left the White House,

你知道，在我离开白宫之后，

I had Newt Gingrich and Pat Robertson

我邀请纽特·金里奇、 帕特·罗伯逊

and other prominent Republicans

和其他杰出的共和党人

appear on national TV ads with me

和我一起出现在了 国家级的电视广告中，

saying we've got to solve the climate crisis.

告诉大家我们必须 解决气候危机。

But the petroleum industry

但石油行业确实

has really doubled down

在共和党内部

enforcing discipline within the Republican Party.

加大了执行纪律的力度。

I mean, look at the attacks they've launched against the Pope

看看他们对教皇的攻击，

when he came out with his encyclical

他们把教皇发表教皇通谕

and was demonized,

妖魔化了，

not by all for sure,

虽然不是所有人都这么做了，

but there were hawks in the anti-climate movement

但反气候运动中的鹰派人士

who immediately started training their guns on Pope Francis,

立即开始把矛头 对准了教皇方济各，

and there are many other examples.

当然还有很多其他的例子。

They enforce discipline

他们强化了党内纪律，

and try to make it a partisan issue,

并试图使之成为一个党派问题，

even as Democrats reach out

即使民主党人

to try to make it bipartisan.

试图促成两党合作。

I totally agree with you that it should not be a partisan issue.

我完全同意你的观点， 那不应该是一个党派问题。

It didn't use to be,

过去不是这样的，

but it's been artificially weaponized as an issue.

但现在已经被人为地 政治武器化了。

CA: I mean, the CEOs of oil companies also have kids

克里斯·安德森： 有些石油公司的 CEO 们，

who are talking to them.

他们的孩子会和他们 谈论这个问题。

It feels like some of them are moving

我感觉他们中有些人被打动了，

and are trying to invest

并且试图投资，

and trying to find ways of being part of the future.

找到改变未来的方式。

Do you see signs of that?

你看到这些迹象了吗?

AG: Yeah.

阿尔·戈尔： 是的。

I think that business leaders, including in the oil and gas companies,

我认为商业领袖， 包括石油和天然气公司的领导人，

are hearing from their families.

都听到了他们的家人 谈论这些事。

They're hearing from their friends.

他们听到他们的朋友这么说。

They're hearing from their employees.

听到了他们的员工这么说。

And, by the way, we've seen in the tech industry

顺便说一下，

我们在科技行业看到了 一些员工的大规模罢工，

some mass walkouts by employees

who are demanding that some of the tech companies

他们要求 一些科技公司采取更多行动，

do more and get serious.

认真对待这件事。

I'm so proud of Apple.

我为苹果感到骄傲。

Forgive me for parenthetically praising Apple.

原谅我表现出了一些偏见，

You know, I'm on the board, but I'm such a big fan of Tim Cook

毕竟我是苹果的董事会成员，

不过我非常赞赏蒂姆·库克和 苹果的同事们的所作所为。

and my colleagues at Apple.

It's an example of a tech company

这是一个科技公司

that's really doing fantastic things.

应对气候危机的一个绝佳范例。

And there's some others as well.

当然还有一些其他的例子。

There are others in many industries.

在很多行业都有这样的例子。

But the pressures on the oil and gas companies

但石油和天然气公司

are quite extraordinary.

面临的压力相当大。

You know, BP just wrote down 12 and a half billion dollars' worth

英国石油公司刚刚 减记了价值 125 亿美元的

of oil and gas assets

石油和天然气资产，

and said that they're never going to see the light of day.

并说他们将永远看不到曙光。

Two-thirds of the fossil fuels that have already been discovered

世界上已经被发现的石油中， 有三分之二

cannot be burned and will not be burned.

无法被使用，也不会被使用。

And so that's a big economic risk to the global economy,

这对全球经济来说 是一个巨大的经济风险，

like the subprime mortgage crisis.

就像次贷危机一样。

We've got 22 trillion dollars of subprime carbon assets,

我们有 22 万亿美元的 次级碳资产，

and just yesterday, there was a major report

就在昨天， 还有一篇报道说，

that the fracking industry in the US

美国的水力压裂行业

is seeing now a wave of bankruptcies

现在正在经历一波破产潮，

because the price of the fracked gas and oil

因为水力压裂的 天然气和石油的价格

has fallen below levels that make them economic.

已经降到了盈利线以下。

CA: Is the shorthand of what's happened there

克里斯·安德森： 是否可以简单概括一下

当时发生的情况，

that electric cars and electric technologies and solar and so forth

即电动技术和太阳能技术等 推动了油价的下跌，

have helped drive down the price of oil

to the point where huge amounts of the reserves

以至于大量的石油储量

just can't be developed profitably?

无法被开发并带来盈利?

AG: Yes, that's it.

阿尔·戈尔： 是的，就是这样。

That's mainly it.

你说的没错。

The projections for energy sources in the next several years

对未来几年 能源来源的预测一致表明，

uniformly predict that electricity from wind and solar

风能和太阳能发电的价格

is going to continue to plummet in price,

将继续下跌，

and therefore using gas or coal

因此使用天然气或煤炭

to make steam to turn the turbines

制造蒸汽来驱动涡轮机

is just not going to be economical.

将是不经济的。

Similarly, the electrification of the transportation sector

同样，交通部门的电气化

is having the same effect.

也产生了同样的效果。

Some are also looking at the trend

一些人还在关注

in national, regional and local governance.

国家、地区和地方治理的趋势。

I mentioned this before,

我之前提到过，

but they're predicting a very different energy future.

但是他们在预测一个 完全不同的能源未来。

But let me come back, Chris,

但克里斯，

because we talked about business leaders.

既然我们谈到了商业领袖们，

I think you were getting in a question a moment ago about capitalism itself,

而且你刚才谈到了 一个关于资本主义本身的问题，

我想就这个问题说几句，

and I do want to say a word on that,

because there are a lot of people who say

因为有很多人说，

maybe capitalism is the basic problem.

资本主义可能才是 问题的根源所在。

I think the current form of capitalism we have is desperately in need of reform.

我认为我们现有的资本主义形式 迫切需要改革。

The short-term outlook is often mentioned,

人们经常提到短期前景，

but the way we measure what is of value to us

但我们衡量价值的方式

is also at the heart of the crisis of modern capitalism.

也是现代资本主义危机的核心。

Now, capitalism is at the base of every successful economy,

资本主义是 每一个成功经济的基础，

and it balances supply and demand,

它平衡了供给和需求，

unlocks a higher fraction of the human potential,

激发了人类的最高潜力；

and it's not going anywhere,

它并不会消失，

but it needs to be reformed,

但需要改革，

because the way we measure what's valuable now

因为我们在衡量价值的时候，

ignores so-called negative externalities

总会忽略所谓的“负面外部因素”，

like pollution.

如污染。

It also ignores positive externalities

我们还忽视了 积极的外部因素，

like investments in education and health care,

如教育、保健、

mental health care, family services.

心理保健和家庭服务方面的投资。

It ignores the depletion of resources like groundwater and topsoil

我们还忽视了 诸如地下水、表土和生物网络

and the web of living species.

等资源的枯竭。

And it ignores the distribution of incomes and net worths,

我们还忽略了 收入和净收入的分配，

so when GDP goes up, people cheer,

所以当 GDP 上升时，人们欢呼，

two percent, three percent -- wow! -- four percent, and they think, "Great!"

2%，3%，哇!——4%， 他们会想: “太好了!”

But it's accompanied by vast increases in pollution,

但随之而来的是 污染的大幅增加，

chronic underinvestment in public goods,

公共产品的长期投资不足，

the depletion of irreplaceable natural resources,

不可替代的自然资源的枯竭，

and the worst inequality crisis we've seen in more than a hundred years

以及一百多年来 最严重的不平等危机，

that is threatening the future of both capitalism and democracy.

这威胁着资本主义和民主的未来。

So we have to change it. We have to reform it.

所以我们必须改变它， 我们必须改革它。

CA: So reform capitalism, but don't throw it out.

克里斯·安德森： 所以我们要改革资本主义，

而不是抛弃它。

We're going to need it as a tool as we go forward

如果我们要解决这个问题， 就要把它当作我们前进的工具。

if we're to solve this.

AG: Yeah, I think that's right, and just one other point:

阿尔·戈尔：是的， 我认为这是对的，

the worst environmental abuses in the last hundred years

还有一点： 在过去的 100 年里，

在 20 世纪，在一些有着 最严重的环境滥用的司法管辖区，

have been in jurisdictions that experimented during the 20th century

with the alternatives to capitalism on the left and right.

人们都在寻找资本主义的替代品。

CA: Interesting. All right.

克里斯·安德森： 听上去很有意思。

Two last community questions quickly.

好了，最后两个观众提问。

Chadburn Blomquist:

查德本·布隆奎斯特 （Chadburn Blomquist）：

"As you are reading the tea leaves of the impact of the current pandemic,

“当你在预测 目前的疫情影响时，

what do you think in regard to our response to combatting climate change

针对我们对抗气候变迁， 所做的一切

will be the most impactful lesson learned?"

在你看来，我们学到的 最有影响的教训是什么？”

AG: Boy, that's a very thoughtful question,

阿尔·戈尔：哦， 这是一个很有深度的问题，

and I wish my answer could rise to the same level on short notice.

我希望我能提供一个简短， 但同样有深度的回答。

I would say first,

首先，我想说，

don't ignore the scientists.

不要忽视科学家。

When there is virtual unanimity

当科学和医学专家

among the scientific and medical experts,

达成一致意见时，

pay attention.

请予以关注。

Don't let some politician dissuade you.

不要让一些政治家阻止你。

I think President Trump is slowly learning

我认为特朗普总统

正在慢慢认识到 要消灭病毒是很困难的。

that's it's kind of difficult to gaslight a virus.

He tried to gaslight the virus in Tulsa.

他试图在塔尔萨消灭病毒，

It didn't come off very well,

但他没有成功，

and tragically, he decided to recklessly roll the dice a month ago

不幸的是，他在一个月前 不顾一切地决定要豪赌,

and ignore the recommendations for people to wear masks

忽略科学家对人们戴口罩和

and to socially distance

社会距离和

and to do the other things,

做其他的事情的建议,

and I think that lesson is beginning to take hold

而且我认为这一课

开始以一种 更为强大的方式在人心中扎根。

in a much stronger way.

But beyond that, Chris,

但除此之外，克里斯，

I think that this period of time has been characterized

我认为这段时间被归为

by one of the most profound opportunities

一个最深刻的机遇，

for people to rethink the patterns of their lives

让人们重新思考他们的生活模式，

and to consider whether or not we can't do a lot of things better

并考虑我们是否可以 将一些事做得更好，

而且是以不同的方式。

and differently.

And I think that this rising generation I mentioned before

我认为我之前提到的

has been even more profoundly affected

正在成长的一代受到了

这段插曲更深刻的影响，

by this interlude,

which I hope ends soon,

我希望这段插曲能尽快结束，

but I hope the lessons endure.

但我希望这些教训能传递下去。

I expect they will.

我想会的。

CA: Yeah, it's amazing how many things you can do without emitting carbon,

克里斯·安德森：是的，我们可以 做很多不产生碳排放的事情，

that we've been forced to do.

这太令人惊讶了。

Let's have one more question here.

再来看一个问题。

Frank Hennessy: "Are you encouraged by the ability of people

弗兰克·轩尼诗 （Frank Hennessy）:

“由于 COVID-19， 人们能够迅速适应新常态，

to quickly adapt to the new normal due to COVID-19

as evidence that people can and will change their habits

这证明人们能够而且将会改变习惯 以应对气候变化，

to respond to climate change?"

您是否为此感到鼓舞?”

AG: Yes, but I think we have to keep in mind

阿尔·戈尔：是的， 但是我认为我们必须记住，

在这场危机中还有一个危机。

that there is a crisis within this crisis.

The impact on the African American community, which I mentioned before,

比如我之前提到过的， 对非裔美国人社区的影响，

on the Latinx community,

对拉丁裔社区

Indigenous peoples.

和土著人民的影响。

The highest infection rate is in the Navajo Nation right now.

目前纳瓦霍族的感染率最高。

So some of these questions appear differently

因此，有些问题 对那些真正在这场危机中

to those who are really getting the brunt of this crisis,

受到的冲击最大人 来说是不同的。

and it is unacceptable that we allow this to continue.

我们不能任由 这种情况继续下去。

It feels one way to you and me

你和我，以及今天的很多观众，

and perhaps to many in our audience today,

对这场疫情是一种感觉，

but for low-income communities of color,

但对低收入的有色人种社区来说,

it's an entirely different crisis,

这是一个完全不同的危机，

and we owe it to them

这是我们欠他们的，

and to all of us

我们所有人都应该

to get busy and to start using the best science

着手开始用科学

and solve this pandemic.

来终结这场大流行。

You know the phrase "pandemic economics."

有一个词叫“流行病经济学”。

Somebody said, the first principle of pandemic economics

有人说， 大流行经济学的首要原则

is take care of the pandemic,

是应对大流行，

and we're not doing that yet.

但我们现在还没有这样做。

We're seeing the president try to goose the economy

我们看到总统

试图为他的连任助威经济，

for his reelection,

never mind the prediction

更别说预测的

of tens of thousands of additional American deaths,

成千上万的美国人的死亡了，

and that is just unforgivable in my opinion.

在我看来这是不可原谅的。

CA: Thank you, Frank.

克里斯·安德森： 谢谢你，弗兰克。

So Al, you, along with others in the community played a key role

那么阿尔，你和 这个社区里的很多人一起

in encouraging TED to launch this initiative called "Countdown."

在鼓励 TED 发起这个 “倒计时”倡议中扮演了关键的角色。

Thank you for that,

非常感谢你，

and I guess this conversation is continuing among many of us.

我想这个话题还将 在我们很多人当中继续。

If you're interested in climate, watching this,

如果你对气候问题感兴趣，

check out the Countdown website,

欢迎登陆“倒计时”的网站，

countdown.ted.com,

countdown.ted.com,

and be part of 10/10/2020,

并参加我们在 2020 年 10 月 10 日

when we are trying to put out an alert to the world

举办的一个活动， 届时我们将试图向世界提出警告，

气候问题已经刻不容缓，

that climate can't wait,

that it really matters,

这真的很重要。

and there's going to be some amazing content

而且在那一天， 我们会面向全球发布一些

free to the world on that day.

精彩的免费内容。

Thank you, Al, for your inspiration and support in doing that.

谢谢你的鼓励和支持，艾尔。

I wonder whether you could end today's session

我想知道你能否能 在今天的对话结束之前

just by painting us a picture,

给我们描绘一幅蓝图，

like how might things roll out over the next decade or so?

比如未来十年左右的时间里， 事情将会如何发展?

Just tell us whether there is still a story of hope here.

请告诉我们是不是 应该对未来抱有希望。

AG: I'd be glad to.

阿尔·戈尔： 我很乐意。

I've got to get one plug in. I'll make it brief.

我还想再补充一句。

July 18 through July 26,

7 月 18 日至 26 日，

The Climate Reality Project is having a global training.

气候现实项目（Climate Reality Project） 正在进行全球培训。

We've already had 8,000 people register.

我们已经有 8000 人注册了。

You can go to climatereality.com.

任何人都可以去 climatereality.com 注册。

Now, a bright future.

应该说，我们拥有 一个光明的未来。

It begins with all of the kinds of efforts

它开始于你在组织

“倒计时”项目的过程中 投入的所有努力。

that you've thrown yourself into in organizing Countdown.

Chris, you and your team have been amazing

克里斯，你和你的团队

to work with,

是非常出色的合作伙伴，

and I'm so excited about the Countdown project.

我对“倒计时”项目感到很兴奋。

TED has an unparalleled ability

TED 在传播值得传播的思想,

to spread ideas that are worth spreading,

提高人们的意识，

to raise consciousness,

启发世界各地的人们方面

to enlighten people around the world,

拥有无与伦比的优势，

and it's needed for climate and the solutions to the climate crisis

这正是气候和气候危机的 解决方案所需要的，

like it's never been needed before,

而且这种需要从未如此迫切。

and I just want to thank you for what you personally are doing

我衷心的感谢你作为个人，

to organize this fantastic Countdown program.

为组织这个伟大的 “倒计时”项目所付出的努力。

CA: Thank you.

克里斯·安德森： 谢谢你！

And the world? Are we going to do this?

那整个世界呢? 你觉得大家准备好了吗?

Do you think that humanity is going to pull this off

你认为人类能做到这一点吗?

and that our grandchildren

我们的子孙能过上 美好的生活吗?

are going to have beautiful lives

where they can celebrate nature and not spend every day

那时，他们可以歌颂大自然，

不需要每天都在可能发生 下一场龙卷风或海啸的

in fear of the next tornado or tsunami?

恐惧中度过?

AG: I am optimistic that we will do it,

阿尔·戈尔：我对我们能 做到这一点持乐观态度，

but the answer is in our hands.

但答案就在我们手中。

We have seen dark times in periods of the past,

我们目睹了过去的黑暗时期，

and we have risen to meet the challenge.

我们已经奋起迎接挑战。

We have limitations of our long evolutionary heritage

我们有长期进化遗产

and elements of our culture,

和文化元素的局限性，

but we also have the ability to transcend our limitations,

但我们也有能力 超越我们自身的局限性,

and when the chips are down,

在危急时刻，

and when survival is at stake

当生存变得岌岌可危之时,

and when our children and future generations are at stake,

当我们的孩子 和未来几代人面临危险时,

we're capable of more than we sometimes allow ourselves to think we can do.

我们能做的 有时远超我们的想象。

This is such a time.

现在就是这样的时候。

I believe we will rise to the occasion,

我相信， 我们一定能够克服困难，

and we will create a bright,

去创造一个光明、

clean, prosperous, just and fair future.

清洁、繁荣、公正、公平的未来。

I believe it with all my heart.

我全心全意地相信这样的未来。

CA: Al Gore, thank you for your life of work,

克里斯·安德森：阿尔·戈尔， 感谢你毕生的贡献，

for all you've done to elevate this issue

感谢你为引起大众的关注 所做的一切，

and for spending this time with us now.

也感谢你参与今天的访谈。

谢谢你。

Thank you.

阿尔·戈尔：也谢谢你。

AG: Back at you. Thank you.