The new urgency of climate change | Al Gore

譯者: Lilian Chiu 審譯者: Regina Chu

Chris Anderson: Al, welcome.

克里斯．安德森：艾爾，歡迎。

So look, just six months ago --

不過六個月前——

it seems a lifetime ago, but it really was just six months ago --

感覺跟一輩子一樣長， 但其實不過是在六個月前——

climate seemed to be on the lips of every thinking person on the planet.

幾乎每個會思考的人 都在談論氣候。

Recent events seem to have swept it all away from our attention.

最近的事件似乎 把我們的注意力都轉移了。

How worried are you about that?

你對此有多擔心？

Al Gore: Well, first of all Chris, thank you so much for inviting me

艾爾．高爾：首先，克里斯， 謝謝你邀請我來參加這次的談話。

to have this conversation.

當遇到其他重大困難 帶走我們的注意力時，

People are reacting differently

to the climate crisis

大家對氣候危機的反應都不同，

in the midst of these other great challenges

that have taken over our awareness,

這是情有可緣的。

appropriately.

One reason is something that you mentioned.

其中一個理由就是你剛剛提到的，

People get the fact that when scientists are warning us

大家都知道，當科學家

用更可怕的詞語來警告我們，

in ever more dire terms

and setting their hair on fire, so to speak,

火燒眉毛了，可以這麼說，

it's best to listen to what they're saying,

那最好聽聽他們要說什麼，

and I think that lesson has begun to sink in in a new way.

且我想，這個教訓已經開始 以新的方式沉澱了。

Another similarity, by the way,

順道一提，還有一個相似點，

is that the climate crisis, like the COVID-19 pandemic,

和新型冠狀病毒疫情一樣，

氣候危機也用新的方式揭示出

has revealed in a new way

the shocking injustices and inequalities and disparities

令人震驚的不公平、不平等，及差距

that affect communities of color

如何影響到有色人種

and low-income communities.

以及低收入的族群。

There are differences.

但兩者也有差別。

The climate crisis has effects that are not measured in years,

氣候危機的影響效應

不像疫情是用年來測量的，

as the pandemic is,

but consequences that are measured in centuries and even longer.

其後果是用世紀或甚至 更長的單位來測量。

And the other difference is that instead of depressing economic activity

還有一個差別，

在處理氣候危機時 不需要壓抑經濟活動，

to deal with the climate crisis,

as nations around the world have had to do with COVID-19,

像全世界各國 在處理新冠肺炎時一樣，

we have the opportunity to create tens of millions of new jobs.

我們有機會可以 創造出數千萬個新工作。

That sounds like a political phrasing,

那聽起來像是政治說法，

but it's literally true.

但那是真的。

For the last five years,

過去五年，

the fastest-growing job in the US has been solar installer.

美國成長最快速的工作 是安裝太陽能板。

The second-fastest has been wind turbine technician.

第二快的是風力渦輪機技師。

And the "Oxford Review of Economics," just a few weeks ago,

幾週前，《牛津經濟政策評論》

pointed the way to a very jobs-rich recovery

指出了一種能提供許多 工作機會的恢復方式，

if we emphasize renewable energy and sustainability technology.

那就是著重可再生能源和永續科技。

So I think we are crossing a tipping point,

我想我們已經走到了關鍵轉折點，

and you need only look at the recovery plans

只要看看全世界

that are being presented in nations around the world

各國的恢復計畫，

to see that they're very much focused on a green recovery.

就可以發現他們非常強調綠色恢復。

CA: I mean, one obvious impact of the pandemic

克：疫情的明顯衝擊之一

is that it's brought the world's economy to a shuddering halt,

就是它讓全世界的經濟嚴重停滯，

thereby reducing greenhouse gas emissions.

因此減少了溫室氣體的排放。

I mean, how big an effect has that been,

那效應有多大？

and is it unambiguously good news?

且那完全可說是好消息嗎？

AG: Well, it's a little bit of an illusion, Chris,

艾：克里斯，那其實有點像是幻影，

and you need only look back to the Great Recession in 2008 and '09,

只要回頭看看 2008、

2009 年的大蕭條，

when there was a one percent decline in emissions,

那時的排放只下降了 1%，

but then in 2010,

但，接著，2010 年，

they came roaring back during the recovery

在經濟恢復時， 排放量又轟轟烈烈地回來了，

with a four percent increase.

增加了 4%。

The latest estimates are that emissions will go down by at least five percent

最新的估計值是， 在疫情造成的「昏睡」期間，

during this induced coma,

排放會下降至少 5%，

as the economist Paul Krugman perceptively described it,

這是很有洞察力的經濟學家 保羅·克魯曼所做的描述，

but whether it goes back the way it did after the Great Recession

但是否會步上大蕭條的後塵，

is in part up to us,

有部分是取決於我們，

and if these green recovery plans are actually implemented,

如果能真正實施這些綠色恢復計畫，

and I know many countries are determined to implement them,

且我知道有許多國家 都有決心要實施，

then we need not repeat that pattern.

那麼我們不見得會重蹈覆轍。

After all, this whole process is occurring

畢竟，在整個過程發生的時期，

during a period when the cost of renewable energy

在一段時間內，

可再生能源的成本， 如電動車、電池，

and electric vehicles, batteries

and a range of other sustainability approaches

以及許多其他永續方法的成本

are continuing to fall in price,

都持續在降價，

and they're becoming much more competitive.

讓它們變得更有競爭優勢。

Just a quick reference to how fast this is:

讓我簡短提一下這速度有多快：

five years ago, electricity from solar and wind

五年前，太陽能和風力發電

was cheaper than electricity from fossil fuels

比化石燃料發電便宜的國家，

只佔全世界國家的 1%。

in only one percent of the world.

This year, it's cheaper in two-thirds of the world,

今年，這個比例提升為 全世界三分之二的國家，

and five years from now,

五年後的未來，

it will be cheaper in virtually 100 percent of the world.

在全世界所有國家都會比較便宜。

EVs will be cost-competitive within two years,

兩年內，電動車在成本上 就會具有競爭力，

and then will continue falling in price.

接著價格還會持續下降。

And so there are changes underway

所以，有些改變正在發生，

that could interrupt the pattern we saw after the Great Recession.

那有可能會打破我們在 大蕭條後所見到的模式。

CA: The reason those pricing differentials happen in different parts of the world

克：世界各地的價格 之所以會有所差別

很顯然是因為各地的 太陽量和風量不同，

is obviously because there's different amounts of sunshine and wind there

and different building costs and so forth.

還有不同的建築成本等等。

AG: Well, yes, and government policies also account for a lot.

艾：是的，政府政策 也有很大的影響。

The world is continuing to subsidize fossil fuels

世界持續在補助化石燃料，

at a ridiculous amount,

且量十分荒謬，

more so in many developing countries than in the US and developed countries,

比起美國和已開發國家， 開發中國家更多這樣的現象，

but it's subsidized here as well.

但在這裡其實也有補助。

But everywhere in the world,

但，世界上每個地方，

wind and solar will be cheaper as a source of electricity

風力和太陽能都將會變成

比化石燃料更便宜的電力來源，

than fossil fuels,

within a few years.

且幾年內就會實現。

CA: I think I've heard it said that the fall in emissions

克：我曾經聽過一個說法，

caused by the pandemic

疫情造成的排放下降

isn't that much more than, actually, the fall that we will need

其實還不到我們若想達成排放目標

every single year

每年需要減少的排放量。

if we're to meet emissions targets.

Is that true, and, if so,

是這樣嗎？如果是，

doesn't that seem impossibly daunting?

那不是會讓人非常氣餒嗎？

AG: It does seem daunting, but first look at the number.

艾：的確看起來很讓人氣餒， 但先看看數字。

That number came from a study a little over a year ago

那個數字來自一年多前的研究，

released by the IPCC

由政府間氣候變化專門委員會公佈，

as to what it would take to keep the Earth's temperatures from increasing

談的是要如何避免地球的溫度

增加攝氏一點五度以上。

more than 1.5 degrees Celsius.

And yes, the annual reductions would be significant,

是的，

相對於我們在疫情所見到的減量，

要達成目標每年需減少的量很可觀。

on the order of what we've seen with the pandemic.

And yes, that does seem daunting.

且，是的，這很讓人氣餒。然而，

However, we do have the opportunity to make some fairly dramatic changes,

我們確實有機會 做出一些重大的改變，

and the plan is not a mystery.

且這個計畫並不是個謎。

You start with the two sectors that are closest to an effective transition --

從與有效轉變有最密切關聯的 兩個產業別開始著手——

electricity generation, as I mentioned --

發電，我剛才有提過——

and last year, 2019,

去年，2019 年，

if you look at all of the new electricity generation built

如果去看全世界所有

新建造的發電設施，

all around the world,

72 percent of it was from solar and wind.

當中有 72% 是用 太陽能和風力發電。

And already, without the continuing subsidies for fossil fuels,

在沒有持續補助化石燃料的情況下，

we would see many more of these plants

我們將會看到更多這類發電廠關門。

being shut down.

There are some new fossil plants being built,

有些新建的化石燃料發電廠，

but many more are being shut down.

但關門的數量更多。

And where transportation is concerned,

至於運輸，

the second sector ready to go,

第二個蓄勢待發的產業別，

in addition to the cheaper prices for EVs that I made reference to before,

除了我先前提到的， 電動車的價格變得更便宜，

there are some 45 jurisdictions around the world --

全世界還有四十五個轄區——

national, regional and municipal --

國家、地區、都市——

where laws have been passed beginning a phaseout

已經通過法律

要開始淘汰內燃機。

of internal combustion engines.

Even India said that by 2030, less than 10 years from now,

就連印度也說，在不到 十年後的 2030 年，

it will be illegal to sell any new internal combustion engines

在印度銷售任何新的內燃機

就會觸犯法律。

in India.

There are many other examples.

還有許多其他例子。

So the past small reductions

所以，

過去的減量雖然不多，

may not be an accurate guide to the kind we can achieve

但那些數字可能無法精確代表 我們能達成的成果，

with serious national plans

因為我們現在有認真的國家級計畫

and a focused global effort.

以及聚焦的全球合作。

CA: So help us understand just the big picture here, Al.

克：艾爾，幫大家了解一下大局。

I think before the pandemic,

我想，在疫情之前，

the world was emitting

全世界會排放

about 55 gigatons of what they call "CO2 equivalent,"

大約五百五十億公噸的 所謂「二氧化碳當量」，

so that includes other greenhouse gases

包括其他溫室氣體，比如甲烷，

like methane dialed up to be the equivalent of CO2.

都算在二氧化碳當量裡面。

And am I right in saying that the IPCC,

我這樣說是否正確？ 科學家組合的全球性組織

which is the global organization of scientists,

政府間氣候變化專門委員會

is recommending that the only way to fix this crisis

指出處理這場危機的唯一方式

is to get that number from 55 to zero

就是最少最少也要在 2050 年

by 2050 at the very latest,

把那個數字從五百五十降到零，

and that even then, there's a chance that we will end up with temperature rises

就算做到了，仍然有可能到最後

溫度會上升攝氏兩度 而非一點五度？

more like two degrees Celsius rather than 1.5?

I mean, is that approximately the big picture

這是否大致上是政府間 氣候變化專門委員會

of what the IPCC is recommending?

所建議的整體狀況？

AG: That's correct.

艾：是的。

The global goal established in the Paris Conference

在巴黎會議所設定的全球目標

is to get to net zero on a global basis

是要在 2050 年達到 全球的淨值為零，

by 2050,

and many people quickly add

許多人馬上就補充說

that that really means a 45 to 50 percent reduction by 2030

那就表示在 2030 年 要達成減量 45%~50%，

to make that pathway to net zero feasible.

才有可能達成淨值為零。

CA: And that kind of timeline is the kind of timeline

克：那種時間表是大家 幾乎無法想像的。

where people couldn't even imagine it.

很難想像超過三十年的政策 會是什麼樣子。所以，

It's just hard to think of policy over 30 years.

So that's actually a very good shorthand,

那其實是極佳的簡略表達，

that humanity's task is to cut emissions in half by 2030,

人類的任務就是要在 2030 年之前把排放減半，

approximately speaking,

約略來說，

which I think boils down to about a seven or eight percent reduction a year,

我想可以歸結為大約

一年要減少 7% 或 8%，

something like that, if I'm not wrong.

如果我沒搞錯，應該是這樣。

AG: Not quite. Not quite that large

艾：不見得。不見得那麼大， 但，很接近，沒錯。

but close, yes.

CA: So it is something like the effect that we've experienced this year

克：所以我們今年所經歷到的效應

may be necessary.

也許是必要的。

This year, we've done it by basically shutting down the economy.

今年，基本上，我們透過 閉關經濟辦到了這件事。

You're talking about a way of doing it over the coming years

你剛才有談到， 在接下來數年要怎麼做

that actually gives some economic growth and new jobs.

才能帶來經濟成長和新工作。

So talk more about that.

請再多談談這些。

You've referred to changing our energy sources,

你提到改變我們的能源來源，

changing how we transport.

改變運輸的方式。

If we did those things,

如果我們去做這些，

how much of the problem does that solve?

能解決問題的多少比例？

AG: Well, we can get to --

艾：嗯，我們可以——

well, in addition to doing the two sectors that I mentioned,

除了致力於我剛才 提到的兩個產業別之外，

we also have to deal with manufacturing and all the use cases

我們也得要處理製造業 以及所有的使用案例，

that require temperatures of a thousand degrees Celsius,

只要需要用到攝氏一千度 高溫的都得處理，

and there are solutions there as well.

且這些也有解決方案。

I'll come back and mention an exciting one that Germany has just embarked upon.

我等下會再談到德國在著手進行的 一個解決方案，很讓人興奮。

We also have to tackle regenerative agriculture.

我們也得要處理再生農業。

There is the opportunity to sequester a great deal of carbon

有機會

可以把大量的碳

封存在全世界的表土層，

in topsoils around the world

by changing the agricultural techniques.

這會需要改變農業技術。

There is a farmer-led movement to do that.

有個由農民領導的運動 就是在做這件事。

We need to also retrofit buildings.

我們也需要將建築物翻新。

We need to change our management of forests and the ocean.

我們需要改變我們對森林 和海洋的管理方式。

But let me just mention two things briefly.

但，讓我簡短提一下兩件事。

First of all, the high temperature use cases.

首先，高溫的使用案例。

Angela Merkel, just 10 days ago,

十天前，安格拉·梅克爾

with the leadership of her minister Peter Altmaier,

再加上她的好友及很出色的公僕

who is a good friend and a great public servant,

彼得·阿特麥爾部長的領導，

have just embarked on a green hydrogen strategy

他們開始著手進行綠氫策略，

to make hydrogen

用完全沒有邊際成本的可再生能源

with zero marginal cost renewable energy.

來製造氫。

And just a word on that, Chris:

讓我快速說一句，克里斯：

you've heard about the intermittency of wind and solar --

你應該聽過風力 和太陽能的間歇現象——

沒有陽光普照時， 太陽能就無法發電，

solar doesn't produce electricity when the sun's not shining,

and wind doesn't when the wind's not blowing --

沒有風吹時風力就無法發電——

but batteries are getting better,

但電池變得越來越好，

and these technologies are becoming much more efficient and powerful,

而這些技術變得更有效率且強大，

so that for an increasing number of hours of each day,

所以每天有越來越多的時間，

they're producing often way more electricity than can be used.

它們所產生的電力 都遠超過需要使用的量。

So what to do with it?

所以，該怎麼辦？

The marginal cost for the next kilowatt-hour is zero.

下一個千瓦小時的邊際成本是零。

So all of a sudden,

所以，突然間，

the very energy-intensive process of cracking hydrogen from water

需要大量能源從水分解出氫的過程

becomes economically feasible,

在經濟上竟然變成可行的，

and it can be substituted for coal and gas,

且可以取代掉煤和天然氣，

and that's already being done.

這是已經在施行的了。

There's a Swedish company already making steel with green hydrogen,

有一間瑞典公司 已經在用綠氫來製鋼，

and, as I say, Germany has just embarked on a major new initiative to do that.

我剛說過，德國為此 在著手進行一項新的大計畫。

I think they're pointing the way for the rest of the world.

我想，他們是在 為世界其他國家指路。

Now, where building retrofits are concerned, just a moment on this,

至於建築物的翻修， 讓我稍微說一下，

because about 20 to 25 percent of the global warming pollution

因為在全世界和在美國，

全球暖化污染中 有大約 20%~25%

in the world and in the US

comes from inefficient buildings

是來自效能不佳的建築物，

that were constructed by companies and individuals

建造這些建築物的公司和人

who were trying to be competitive in the marketplace

想的是市場上的競爭力，

and keep their margins acceptably high

以及要讓他們的利潤 高到能接受的程度，

and thereby skimping on insulation and the right windows

因此不會花心思在絕緣、

正確的窗戶、LED 燈等等。

and LEDs and the rest.

And yet the person or company that buys that building

但購買或租用

這些建築物的公司或人，

or leases that building,

they want their monthly utility bills much lower.

他們希望每月的 水電瓦斯費能低很多。

So there are now ways

現在有方法

to close that so-called agent-principal divide,

可以減少這種所謂的 代理委託落差，

the differing incentives for the builder and occupier,

給建造者和居住者不同的獎勵，

and we can retrofit buildings with a program that literally pays for itself

翻新建築物的部分， 我們可以用三到五年後

就可以省下足以支付 費用的方案來進行，

over three to five years,

and we could put tens of millions of people to work

且我們可以讓數千萬人有工作可做，

in jobs that by definition cannot be outsourced

這些工作在定義上就無法外包，

because they exist in every single community.

因為它們存在於每一個社區中。

And we really ought to get serious about doing this,

我們真的應該要認真考慮這麼做，

because we're going to need all those jobs

因為我們會需要所有這些工作，

to get sustainable prosperity in the aftermath of this pandemic.

才能在這次疫情之後 達成永續的繁榮。

CA: Just going back to the hydrogen economy

克：回到你提及的氫經濟，

that you referred to there,

when some people hear that,

當大家聽到氫經濟，會想： 「你指的是用氫當燃料的車嗎？」

they think, "Oh, are you talking about hydrogen-fueled cars?"

And they've heard that that probably won't be a winning strategy.

他們曾經聽過這種策略並不會成功。

But you're thinking much more broadly than that, I think,

但我想你所想的應該更廣泛許多，

並不只是把氫當作某種貯存機制，

that it's not just hydrogen as a kind of storage mechanism

to act as a buffer for renewable energy,

扮演可再生能源的緩衝，

but also hydrogen could be essential

你還有考量氫在經濟的 其他過程中可能也很重要，

for some of the other processes in the economy like making steel,

如製造鋼、製造水泥，

making cement,

that are fundamentally carbon-intensive processes right now

這些過程在現階段 基本上都需要大量的碳，

but could be transformed if we had much cheaper sources of hydrogen.

但如果我們有更便宜的氫來源， 它們就可以轉型。

Is that right?

是這樣嗎？

AG: Yes, I was always skeptical about hydrogen, Chris,

艾：是的，我對於氫 總是抱持懷疑，克里斯，

principally because it's been so expensive to make it,

基本上是因為，製造氫，即他們說的

「從水中把氫分裂出來」， 是相當昂貴的。

to "crack it out of water," as they say.

But the game-changer has been

但，有個改變局勢的因素，

the incredible abundance of solar and wind electricity

那就是太陽能和風力發電充足，

in volumes and amounts that people didn't expect,

生產的量超過大家所預期，

and all of a sudden, it's cheap enough to use

突然間，氫就變得夠便宜，

for these very energy-intensive processes

可以用到這些 非常需要能源的過程中，

like creating green hydrogen.

比如製造綠色氫。

I'm still a bit skeptical about using it in vehicles.

對於把它用在汽車上， 我仍然有點疑慮。

Toyota's been betting on that for 25 years and it hasn't really worked for them.

豐田汽車已經賭上了二十五年，

目前尚無成功。

Never say never, maybe it will,

永遠別說不可能，也許會成真，

but I think it's most useful for these high-temperature industrial processes,

但我想對於那些高溫 工業流程還是最有用，

and we already have a pathway for decarbonizing transportation

且我們已經有方法 可以做到脫碳運輸，

with electricity

用電力，

that's working extremely well.

且成效非常好。

Tesla's going to be soon the most valuable automobile company in the world,

特斯拉很快就會成為

世界上最有價值的汽車公司，

already in the US,

在美國已經是了， 且他們即將超越豐田。

and they're about to overtake Toyota.

There is now a semitruck company that's been stood up by Tesla

特斯拉已經設立了

一間聯結車公司，

and another that is going to be a hybrid with electricity and green hydrogen,

還有一間會是混合動力汽車公司，

混合電力和綠氫，

so we'll see whether or not they can make it work in that application.

我們就等著看他們是否 能成功做出那種應用。

But I think electricity is preferable for cars and trucks.

但我想電力比較適合汽車和卡車。

CA: We're coming to some community questions in a minute.

克：我們馬上就會回答 一些社群的問題。

Let me ask you, though, about nuclear.

不過先讓我請教你 一個關於核能的問題。

Some environmentalists believe that nuclear,

有一些環境保護主義者相信核能，

或者新世代核能，

or maybe new generation nuclear power

is an essential part of the equation

是方程式中很重要的一部分，

if we're to get to a truly clean future,

能幫助我們真成達成乾淨的未來，

a clean energy future.

乾淨能源的未來。

Are you still pretty skeptical on nuclear, Al?

艾爾，你仍然對核能抱持懷疑嗎？

AG: Well, the market's skeptical about it, Chris.

艾：嗯，克里斯， 是市場對它抱持懷疑。

It's been a crushing disappointment for me and for so many.

對我及許多人而言， 它讓我們相當失望。

I used to represent Oak Ridge, where nuclear energy began,

我以前代表橡樹嶺國家實驗室， 核能是從那裡開始的，

and when I was a young congressman,

我還是個年輕國會議員時 也是個支持者。

I was a booster.

I was very enthusiastic about it.

我對核能非常熱衷。

But the cost overruns

但成本超出，

and the problems in building these plants

還有建造發電廠的問題

have become so severe

都變得非常嚴重，

that utilities just don't have an appetite for them.

讓公用事業對它們冷感了。

It's become the most expensive source of electricity.

核能變成了最昂貴的電力來源。

Now, let me hasten to add that there are some older nuclear reactors

讓我趕快補充一下，

有些比較老的核能反應爐，

that have more useful time that could be added onto their lifetimes.

它們的壽命未到，

還可以再發揮一陣子的作用。

And like a lot of environmentalists,

和許多環境保護主義者一樣，

I've come to the view that if they can be determined to be safe,

我漸漸認為，

如果判斷它們夠安全，

they should be allowed to continue operating for a time.

應該允許它們

持續運作一段時間。

But where new nuclear power plants are concerned,

但，至於新建的核能發電廠，

here's a way to look at it.

可以這麼想，

If you are -- you've been a CEO, Chris.

如果你是——克里斯， 你都在擔任執行長，

If you were the CEO of -- I guess you still are.

如果你是執行長—— 我想你仍然是。

If you were the CEO of an electric utility,

如果你是電力公司的執行長，

and you told your executive team,

你告訴你的執行團隊說： 「我想要建造一座核能發電廠。」

"I want to build a nuclear power plant,"

two of the first questions you would ask are, number one:

你會先問兩個問題，第一：

How much will it cost?

它的成本是多少？

And there's not a single engineering consulting firm

而我在世界上找不到

任何一間工程顧問公司

that I've been able to find anywhere in the world

that will put their name on an opinion

會願意幫你做成本估計

giving you a cost estimate.

並簽名背書。

They just don't know.

他們就是不知道。

A second question you would ask is:

第二個要問的問題是：

How long will it take to build it, so we can start selling the electricity?

建造它的時間要多久？ 何時可以開始販售電力？

And again, the answer you will get is,

同樣的，你得到的答案 是：「我們不清楚。」

"We have no idea."

So if you don't know how much it's going to cost,

所以，如果你不知道它的成本，

and you don't know when it's going to be finished,

你不知道它何時能完成，

and you already know that the electricity is more expensive

且你已經知道這種電力會比

其他替代的發電方式更昂貴，

than the alternate ways to produce it,

that's going to be a little discouraging,

那會讓人有點氣餒，

and, in fact, that's been the case for utilities around the world.

事實上，世界各地的 公用事業皆是如此。

CA: OK.

克：好，所以這絕對 會是場有趣的辯論，

So there's definitely an interesting debate there,

but we're going to come on to some community questions.

但我們要來回答 一些來自社群的問題。

Let's have the first of those questions up, please.

麻煩把第一個問題秀出來。

From Prosanta Chakrabarty:

普拉山塔．恰克拉巴提想要問：

"People who are skeptical of COVID and of climate change

「懷疑新型冠狀病毒和氣候變遷者 似乎對整個科學都抱持懷疑。

seem to be skeptical of science in general.

It may be that the singular message from scientists

有可能科學家傳達出來的訊息 會被稀釋和扭曲。

gets diluted and convoluted.

我們要如何處理？」

How do we fix that?"

AG: Yeah, that's a great question, Prosanta.

艾：那是個好問題，普拉山塔。

Boy, I'm trying to put this succinctly and shortly.

天，

我得想辦法簡短地回答。

I think that there has been

我想，有人會覺得

a feeling that experts in general

整體來說，專家

have kind of let the US down,

讓美國失望了，

and that feeling is much more pronounced in the US than in most other countries.

且和其他國家比起來， 在美國這種感覺更明顯。

And I think that the considered opinion of what we call experts

我想，

受敬重的所謂專家意見

has been diluted over the last few decades

在過去數十年間已經被稀釋了，

by the unhealthy dominance of big money in our political system,

元兇是政治體制 被巨款支配的這種病態，

which has found ways to really twist economic policy

它已經找到方法

扭曲經濟政策

to benefit elites.

來讓精英受益。

And this sounds a little radical,

這聽起來有點極端， 但實情就是如此。

but it's actually what has happened.

And we have gone for more than 40 years

且我們已經有超過四十年

without any meaningful increase in middle-income pay,

中產階級的薪水 都沒有任何明顯增長了，

and where the injustice experienced by African Americans

就非裔美國人 及其他有色人種族群

所遇到的不公正來說，

and other communities of color are concerned,

the differential in pay between African Americans and majority Americans

非裔美國人和大多數 美國人之間的薪水落差

is the same as it was in 1968,

和 1968 年時相同，

and the family wealth,

至於家庭財富，

the net worth --

淨值——

it takes 11 and a half so-called "typical" African American families

一共要十一個半所謂的 「典型」非裔美國人家庭

to make up the net worth of one so-called "typical" White American family.

加總起來的淨值才等於一個 所謂的「典型」美國白人家庭。

And you look at the soaring incomes

而前 1% 或 1% 的前十分之一

in the top one or the top one-tenth of one percent,

收入則是不斷上升，

and people say, "Wait a minute.

大家會說：「等等。

Whoever the experts were that designed these policies,

不論是哪些專家在設計這些政策，

they haven't been doing a good job for me."

對我來說他們做的都不怎麼樣。」

A final point, Chris:

還有最後一點，克里斯：

there has been an assault on reason.

一直都有針對理性的攻擊。

There has been a war against truth.

一直都有針對真相的戰爭。

There has been a strategy,

有一項策略，

maybe it was best known as a strategy decades ago by the tobacco companies

也許最為人所知的就是 數十年前菸草公司用的策略

who hired actors and dressed them up as doctors to falsely reassure people

會僱用演員，打扮成醫生，

向大家做假保證說抽菸對健康無害，

that there were no health consequences from smoking cigarettes,

and a hundred million people died as a result.

因而造成數億人死亡。

That same strategy of diminishing the significance of truth,

正是這種削弱真相重要性的策略，

diminishing, as someone said, the authority of knowledge,

也有人說，是在削弱知識的權威，

I think that has made it kind of open season

我想就是這種策略 造成了一種狩獵開放季，

on any inconvenient truth -- forgive another buzz phrase,

可以獵殺任何「不願面對的真相」——

請原諒我又用了流行用語，

但它很貼切。

but it is apt.

We cannot abandon our devotion to the best available evidence

我們不能放棄努力去找出

能找到的最佳證據，

tested in reasoned discourse

在推論的論述中測試，

and used as the basis

並用來當作基礎，

for the best policies we can form.

制定出我們能制訂的最佳政策。

CA: Is it possible, Al, that one consequence of the pandemic

克：艾爾，有沒有可能， 疫情的其中一個後果

is actually a growing number of people

就是有越來越多人

have revisited their opinions on scientists?

會重新檢視他們對於科學家的看法？

I mean, you've had a chance in the last few months to say,

在過去幾個月中，你有機會說：

「我是要相信我的 政治領袖還是科學家

"Do I trust my political leader or do I trust this scientist

in terms of what they're saying

對於這種病毒的說詞？」

about this virus?"

Maybe lessons from that could be carried forward?

也許從那當中學到的 教訓可以延續下去？

AG: Well, you know, I think if the polling is accurate,

艾：我想，

如果民調正確，

people do trust their doctors a lot more than some of the politicians

人民對醫生的信任遠超過

一些假裝不承認疫情

who seem to have a vested interest in pretending the pandemic isn't real.

以保護既得利益的政治人物。

And if you look at the incredible bust

看看川普總統在杜爾沙的 造勢大會如此失敗，

at President Trump's rally in Tulsa,

a stadium of 19,000 people with less than one-third filled,

可以容納一萬九千人的場地，

不到三分之一坐滿，

according to the fire marshal,

這是消防隊長說的，

you saw all the empty seats if you saw the news clips,

如果你有看新聞影片 就可以看到許多空位，

so even the most loyal Trump supporters

就連最忠誠的川普支持者

must have decided to trust their doctors and the medical advice

一定也決定相信

他們的醫生和醫學建議

rather than Dr. Donald Trump.

而不是相信川普「醫師」。

CA: With a little help from the TikTok generation, perchance.

克：也許還有一點抖音世代的幫忙。

艾：但出席的人沒受到影響。

AG: Well, but that didn't affect the turnout.

What they did, very cleverly, and I'm cheering them on,

他們所做的非常聰明， 我也很鼓勵他們這麼做，

what they did was affect the Trump White House's expectations.

他們所做的是去影響

川普白宮的期望。

They're the reason why he went out a couple days beforehand

因為他們，川普才能在大會幾天之前

and said, "We've had a million people sign up."

出來說：「我們有一百萬人報名。」

But they didn't prevent --

但他們沒有預防——

they didn't take seats that others could have otherwise taken.

他們並沒有去搶那些 會有人要搶的位子。

They didn't affect the turnout, just the expectations.

他們並沒有影響出席量，只影響期望。

CA: OK, let's have our next question here.

克：好，我們來看下一個問題。

"Are you concerned the world will rush back to the use of the private car

「你會不會擔心全世界馬上 開始回到使用私家車，

out of fear of using shared public transportation?"

因為害怕與別人共乘 公共交通工具？」

AG: Well, that could actually be one of the consequences, absolutely.

艾：那可能會是

後果之一，絕對是。

Now, the trends on mass transit

大眾運輸的趨勢

were already inching in the wrong direction

已經有點偏了，

because of Uber and Lyft and the ridesharing services,

原因是優步和 Lyft

及共乘服務，

and if autonomy ever reaches the goals that its advocates have hoped for

如果自駕車真的有達成

它的擁護者所希望的目標，

then that may also have a similar effect.

那可能也有類似的效果。

But there's no doubt that some people

但，無疑的，

有些人會變得

are going to be probably a little more reluctant

比較不願意

to take mass transportation

搭乘大眾運輸工具，

直到對這次疫情的恐懼

until the fear of this pandemic is well and truly gone.

真正消失後才會改善。

CA: Yeah. Might need a vaccine on that one.

克：那可能也需要疫苗。

AG: (Laughs) Yeah.

艾：（笑）是啊。 克：下一個問題。

CA: Next question.

Sonaar Luthra, thank you for this question from LA.

洛杉磯的索納．路特拉， 謝謝你的問題。

"Given the temperature rise in the Arctic this past week,

「過去這一週北極圈的溫度升高，

seems like the rate we are losing our carbon sinks

似乎我們失去永凍土層或森林

like permafrost or forests

這類碳匯的速度 比我們預期的還要快。

is accelerating faster than we predicted.

Are our models too focused on human emissions?"

我們的模型是否也有 把焦點放在人類排放上？」

Interesting question.

有趣的問題。

AG: Well, the models are focused on the factors that have led

艾：模型的焦點是導致北極圈北部

to these incredible temperature spikes

這些溫度突然暴增的因子。

in the north of the Arctic Circle.

They were predicted, they have been predicted,

這些狀況是有被預測到的，

and one of the reasons for it

其中一個理由

is that as the snow and ice cover melts,

是因為覆蓋的雪和冰融化後，

the sun's incoming rays are no longer reflected back into space

照射下來的太陽光就不會 再被反射回到太空中，

at a 90 percent rate,

至少達不到 90%，

and instead, when they fall on the dark tundra or the dark ocean,

反之，當太陽光照射在 深色的凍原上或深色的海洋上，

they're absorbed at a 90 percent rate.

有 90% 會被吸收掉。

So that's a magnifier of the warming in the Arctic,

這會放大北極圈的暖化，

and this has been predicted.

這個狀況在預測之中。

There are a number of other consequences that are also in the models,

模型中還有數個其他後果，

but some of them may have to be recalibrated.

但當中有一些可能需要重新校調。

The scientists are freshly concerned

科學家最近很擔心

that the emissions of both CO2 and methane

凍原融化造成的

二氧化碳和甲烷排放

from the thawing tundra

could be larger than they had hoped they would be.

可能會比科學家所希望的還要多。

There's also just been a brand-new study.

最近也有一項全新的研究。

I won't spend time on this,

我不花時間在這了，

because it deals with a kind of geeky term called "climate sensitivity,"

因為它講的是個蠻宅的詞： 「氣候敏感度」，

which has been a factor in the models with large error bars

這個因子也在模型中， 它的誤差很大，

because it's so hard to pin down.

因為很難確定它。

But the latest evidence indicates, worryingly,

但，最新的證據很讓人憂心，指出

that the sensitivity may be greater than they had thought,

敏感可能比原本想的還要高，

and we will have an even more daunting task.

而我們會有個更望之生畏的任務。

That shouldn't discourage us.

我們不該因此洩氣。

I truly believe that once we cross this tipping point,

我真心相信，一旦我們 過了這個關鍵轉折點，

and I do believe we're doing it now,

且，如我先前所言， 我相信我們正在這麼做，

as I've said,

我想我們接下來就會找到很多方法

then I think we're going to find a lot of ways

to speed up the emissions reductions.

來加速排放減量。

CA: We'll take one more question from the community.

克：我們再看一個來自社群的問題。

Haha. "Geoengineering is making extraordinary progress.

哈哈。地球工程有非常出色的進步。

Exxon is investing in technology from Global Thermostat

埃克森美孚在投資 Global Thermostat 公司的技術，

that seems promising.

似乎前景看好。

What do you think of these air and water carbon capture technologies?"

你對於這些空氣和水的 碳捕集技術有什麼看法？」

Stephen Petranek.

史帝芬．派川尼克。

AG: Yeah. Well, you and I have talked about this before, Chris.

艾：好，克里斯，你和我 之前有討論過這件事。

I've been strongly opposed

我一直都強烈反對

to conducting an unplanned global experiment

去進行

未規劃的全球實驗，

that could go wildly wrong,

有可能會出大問題，

and most are really scared of that approach.

且大部分人對那種方法感到害怕。

However, the term "geoengineering" is a nuanced term that covers a lot.

然而，

「地球工程」是個微妙的詞， 涵蓋範圍很廣。

If you want to paint roofs white to reflect more energy

如果在市容方面，

你想把屋頂漆成白色 以反射更多能源，

from the cityscapes,

that's not going to bring a danger of a runaway effect,

那不會造成失控的效應， 不會有危險，

and there are some other things

還有一些其他的做法勉強可以

that are loosely called "geoengineering" like that, which are fine.

稱為「地球工程」，這些都沒問題。

But the idea of blocking out the sun's rays --

但將太陽照射給擋掉的這種想法，

that's insane in my opinion.

我認為是瘋了。

Turns out plants need sunlight for photosynthesis

植物需要太陽光進行光合作用，

and solar panels need sunlight

太陽能板需要太陽光

for producing electricity from the sun's rays.

才能從光線產生電力。

And the consequences of changing everything we know

改變我們所知的一切 是會產生後果的，

and pretending that the consequences are going to precisely cancel out

而假裝那些後果

會剛剛好抵消掉

the unplanned experiment of global warming that we already have underway,

未規劃的既有全球暖化實驗，

you know, there are glitches in our thinking.

那樣的想法有問題。

One of them is called the "single solution bias,"

其中一個問題叫 「單一解決方案偏見」，

and there are people who just have a hunger to say,

有些人就是渴望要說：

"Well, that one solution, we just need to latch on to that and do that,

「嗯，那一個解決方案， 我們只需要投入去做它，

and damn the consequences."

去他的後果。」那很瘋狂。

Well, it's nuts.

CA: But let me push back on this just a little bit.

克：但，讓我倒帶一下。

So let's say that we agree that a single solution,

假設說我們認同只用一個解決方案，

all-or-nothing attempt at geoengineering is crazy.

地球工程這種不是全贏 就是全輸的嘗試是很瘋狂。

But there are scenarios where the world looks at emissions and just sees,

但有某些情境是， 全世界看著排放的量，

比如十年後，

in 10 years' time, let's say,

that they are just not coming down fast enough

排放量就是下降的不夠快，

and that we are at risk of several other liftoff events

而我們又遇到幾種 其他事件發生的風險，

where this train will just get away from us,

這班列車就要離開我們，

and we will see temperature rises of three, four, five, six, seven degrees,

我們看到溫度上升三、 四、五、六、七度，

and all of civilization is at risk.

所有的文明都有風險。

Surely, there is an approach to geoengineering

當然，

我們可以效仿醫療發展 來看待地球工程。

that could be modeled, in a way, on the way that we approach medicine.

Like, for hundreds of years, we don't really understand the human body,

就像，數百年來，我們 都沒有很了解人類的身體，

people would try interventions,

大家會嘗試一些干預治療方式，

and some of them would work, and some of them wouldn't.

有些有用，有些沒有。

No one says in medicine, "You know,

在醫學上沒有人說：

go in and take an all-or-nothing decision

「去對某個人的性命

做出全贏或全輸的決策。」

on someone's life,"

but they do say, "Let's try some stuff."

但會說：「我們來試某個方法。」

If an experiment can be reversible,

如果實驗是可逆的，

if it's plausible in the first place,

如果一開始就是合理的，

if there's reason to think that it might work,

如果有理由相信它可能行得通，

we actually owe it to the future health of humanity

我們其實是虧欠人類未來的健康，

to try at least some types of tests to see what could work.

應該至少要去做些測試 看看什麼行得通。

So, small tests to see whether, for example,

所以，做些小測試看看比如

seeding of something in the ocean

在海洋中播下某種種子

能不能以沒有威脅性的方式

might create, in a nonthreatening way,

創造出碳匯。

carbon sinks.

Or maybe, rather than filling the atmosphere with sulfur dioxide,

或者，也許，不是 把大氣中填滿二氧化硫，

a smaller experiment that was not that big a deal

而是做個比較小， 沒什麼大不了的實驗，

to see whether, cost-effectively, you could reduce the temperature a little bit.

看看是否能在有成本效益的 情況下讓溫度下降一點。

Surely, that isn't completely crazy

這就並非完全是瘋狂的，

and is at least something we should be thinking about

至少是可以考慮看看

in case these other measures don't work?

以免其他手段行不通？

AG: Well, there've already been such experiments

艾：已經有人做過這類實驗

在海洋中播種

to seed the ocean

to see if that can increase the uptake of CO2.

看看是否能夠增加二氧化碳的吸收。

And the experiments were an unmitigated failure,

那些實驗徹底失敗，

as many predicted they would be.

和許多人預測的一樣。

But that, again, is the kind of approach

但，同樣的，那種方法

that's very different

非常不同於

from putting tinfoil strips in the atmosphere orbiting the Earth.

將錫箔條放到大氣層繞著地球轉。

That was the way that solar geoengineering proposal started.

太陽能地球工程的提議 就是這麼開始的。

Now they're focusing on chalk,

現在他們的焦點在白堊，

so we have chalk dust all over everything.

所以什麼東西上面都灑白堊粉。

But more serious than that is the fact that it might not be reversible.

但，更嚴重的是，

那可能是不可逆的。

CA: But, Al, that's the rhetoric response.

克：但，艾爾，這樣的反應誇大了。

The amount of dust that you need

要讓溫度下降一、二度

to drop by a degree or two

所需要的白堊粉量

wouldn't result in chalk dust over everything.

並不會造成到處都是白堊粉。

It would be unbelievably --

那會相當地——

like, it would be less than the dust that people experience every day, anyway.

總之會比大家每天 所經歷到的白堊粉還要少。

I mean, I just --

我的意思是，我只是——

AG: First of all, I don't know how you do a small experiment

艾：首先，我不知道你要如何

在大氣中做小型實驗。

in the atmosphere.

And secondly,

第二，

if we were to take that approach,

如果我們要採用那種方法，

we would have to steadily increase the amount

不論他們決定使用什麼物質，

我們都必須要穩定地增加其用量。

of whatever substance they decided.

We'd have to increase it every single year,

我們必須要每年增加，

and if we ever stopped,

如果我們有一天停止了，

then there would be a sudden snapback,

就會突然發生回彈，

like "The Picture of Dorian Gray," that old book and movie,

就像《道林格雷的畫像》 這本書和電影中的情節一樣，

where suddenly all of the things caught up with you at once.

突然間，所有的惡果都一起出現。

The fact that anyone is even considering these approaches, Chris,

克里斯，「有人會想到 這類方法」這件事

is a measure of a feeling of desperation

可以用來衡量的確有些人

that some have begun to feel,

開始感受到絕望感的程度，

which I understand,

這我能了解，

但我不認為那應該迫使我們

but I don't think it should drive us toward these reckless experiments.

去進行這些魯莽的實驗。

And by the way, using your analogy to experimental cancer treatments,

順道一提，就用你比喻的

實驗性癌症治療為例，

for example,

you usually get informed consent from the patient.

你通常會得到病人的知情同意。

Getting informed consent from 7.8 billion people

那我們就應該要取得 七十八億人的知情同意，

who have no voice and no say,

他們沒有發聲，沒有意見，

who are subject to the potentially catastrophic consequences

可是如果某人提出的這個奇怪提案

of this wackadoodle proposal that somebody comes up with

後果是大災難， 他們就是要承受的人，

to try to rearrange the entire Earth's atmosphere

因為這個提案要將整個大氣重置，

and hope and pretend that it's going to cancel out,

希望並假裝這麼做會抵消

the fact that we're putting 152 million tons

我們每天放入空氣中的 一億五千兩百萬噸

of heat-trapping, manmade global warming pollution

阻礙熱能散失、人造的 全球暖化污染。

into the sky every day.

That's what's really insane.

那才真的是瘋狂。

A scientist decades ago

數十年前有位科學家

compared it this way.

這樣做比較：

He said, if you had two people on a sinking boat

他說，如果有兩個人 在一艘下沉的船上，

and one of them says,

其中一人說：

"You know, we could probably use some mirrors to signal to shore

「我們可以用鏡子

來向岸上發出信號，

to get them to build

請他們建造一台精密的製浪機器，

a sophisticated wave-generating machine

that will cancel out the rocking of the boat

它能將船後面這些人

造成的晃動抵消掉。」

by these guys in the back of the boat."

Or you could get them to stop rocking the boat.

或者你可以直接請他們不要晃動。

And that's what we need to do. We need to stop what's causing the crisis.

那就是我們該做的。

我們該去阻止造成危機的成因。

CA: Yeah, that's a great story,

克：是的，好故事，

but if the effort to stop the people rocking in the back of the boat

但，如果要讓船後面的人 停止晃動所要花的功夫

is as complex as the scientific proposal you just outlined,

和你剛才描述的科學提議一樣複雜，

whereas the experiment to stop the waves

或者阻止波浪的實驗

is actually as simple as telling the people to stop rocking the boat,

其實和叫那些人別再晃動一樣簡單，

that story changes.

故事就改變了。

And I think you're right that the issue of informed consent

我想你說對了一件事，

知情同意的議題是很棘手的，

is a really challenging one,

but, I mean, no one gave informed consent

但，現在我們對大氣在做的其他事情

to do all of the other things we're doing to the atmosphere.

都沒有經過任何知情同意。

And I agree that the moral hazard issue

我同意道德危害的議題

is worrying,

很讓人擔心，

that if we became dependent on geoengineering

如果我們變成仰賴地球工程學

and took away our efforts to do the rest,

並不再把心力用來做其他的，

that would be tragic.

那會是個災難。

It just seems like,

只是，好像，

I wish it was possible to have a nuanced debate

我希望能進行一場細微的辯論

of people saying, you know what,

邀請那些認為非常複雜的問題 有很多控制器要考量的人。

there's multiple dials to a very complex problem.

We're going to have to adjust several of them very, very carefully

我們得要非常非常小心地 調整數個控制器，

and keep talking to each other.

並持續和彼此溝通。

Wouldn't that be a goal

目標不是該如此嗎？

to just try and have a more nuanced debate about this,

嘗試進行更細微的辯論，

rather than all of that geoengineering

而不是全都只在說地球工程學

can't work?

行不通？

AG: Well, I've said some of it,

艾：嗯，我剛有說到一些，

you know, the benign forms that I've mentioned,

我提到一些比較良性的形式，

I'm not ruling those out.

我並沒有排除它們。

But blocking the Sun's rays from the Earth,

但阻擋太陽光照射地球，

not only do you affect 7.8 billion people,

你不僅會影響到七十八億人，

you affect the plants

還會影響到植物、

and the animals

動物、

and the ocean currents

洋流、

and the wind currents

氣流、

and natural processes

自然過程，

that we're in danger of disrupting even more.

我們有可能會進一步危害這些。

Techno-optimism is something I've engaged in in the past,

我在過去支持

技術樂觀主義，

but to latch on to some brand-new technological solution

但轉向某種

全新的科技解決方案，

to rework the entire Earth's natural system

重建整個地球的大自然系統，

because somebody thinks he's clever enough

只因為有人認為他自己夠聰明，

to do it in a way that precisely cancels out

可以做到非常精確地抵消

the consequences of using the atmosphere as an open sewer

把大氣當作明溝

給人造溫室氣體使用而造成的後果。

for heat-trapping manmade gases.

It's much more important to stop using the atmosphere as an open sewer.

更重要的是要阻止 使用大氣當作明溝。

That's what the problem is.

那才是問題。

CA: All right, well, we'll agree that that is the most important thing, for sure,

克：好，我們都同意 那才是最重要的事，當然，

and speaking of which,

說到這個，

do you believe the world needs carbon pricing,

你是否相信世界需要碳訂價？

and is there any prospect for getting there?

有沒有希望可以做到？

AG: Yes. Yes to both questions.

艾：兩個問題的答案都是「是」。

For decades, almost every economist

數十年來，幾乎每位在關心

who is asked about the climate crisis

氣候危機的經濟學家

says, "Well, we just need to put a price on carbon."

都會說：「我們只需要 把碳訂出價格。」

And I have certainly been in favor of that approach.

我肯定偏好這個方法。

But it is daunting.

但它會讓人怯步。無論如何，

Nevertheless, there are 43 jurisdictions around the world

全世界有四十三個轄區

that already have a price on carbon.

已經為碳訂價了。

We're seeing it in Europe.

在歐洲可以看到。

They finally straightened out their carbon pricing mechanism.

他們終於理清了他們的碳訂價機制。

It's an emissions trading version of it.

是排放交易版本的碳訂價。

We have places that have put a tax on carbon.

有些地方是針對碳來課稅。

That's the approach the economists prefer.

這是經濟學家偏好的方法。

China is beginning to implement its national emissions trading program.

中國已經開始實施 其國家排放交易計畫。

California and quite a few other states in the US are already doing it.

加州和美國其他幾個州已經在做了。

It can be given back to people in a revenue-neutral way.

可以用稅收中立的方式回饋給人民。

But the opposition to it, Chris, which you've noted,

但，克里斯，你也已經注意到，

is impressive enough that we do have to take other approaches,

反對聲浪非常大，

迫使我們必須要採用其他方法，

and I would say most climate activists are now saying, look,

我會說，現在大部分 氣候活動家會說，

聽著，別讓「最好」成為 「更好」的敵人。

let's don't make the best the enemy of the better.

There are other ways to do this as well.

還有其他方式可以做到。

We need every solution we can rationally employ,

我們需要可以理性實施的所有方案，

including by regulation.

包括行政法規。

And often, when the political difficulty of a proposal becomes too difficult

通常，

當政府的提案在市場導向經濟 變得窒礙難行時，

in a market-oriented approach,

the fallback is with regulation,

退路就是行政法規，

and it's been given a bad name, regulation,

而行政法規一直帶著惡名，

but many places are doing it.

但許多地方還是會用它。

I mentioned phasing out internal combustion engines.

我提到逐步淘汰內燃機。

That's an example.

那就是個例子。

There are 160 cities in the US

在美國有一百六十個城市

that have already by regulation ordered that within a date certain,

已經強制規定要在一個期限內

100 percent of all their electricity will have to come from renewable sources.

讓電力 100% 來自可再生來源。

And again, the market forces that are driving the cost of renewable energy

同樣的，

市場上的力量正在讓可再生能源

及永續性解決方案的 成本不斷下降，

and sustainability solutions ever downward,

that gives us the wind at our back.

這讓我們有成功的機會。

This is working in our favor.

情況對我們是有利的。

CA: I mean, the pushback on carbon pricing

克：對於碳訂價的負面反應

often goes further from parts of the environmental movement,

通常會從環境運動的部分進一步

which is to a pushback on the role of business in general.

延伸到對企業整體角色的負面反應。

Business is actually -- well, capitalism -- is blamed

企業其實——嗯， 資本主義——被指責

for the climate crisis

是氣候變遷的罪人，

because of unrelenting growth,

因為持續不斷的成長，

to the point where many people don't trust business

到了許多人已經不相信

企業能參與解決方案的程度。

to be part of the solution.

The only way to go forward is to regulate,

唯一向前邁進的方式就是行政法規，

to force businesses to do the right thing.

強迫企業去做對的事。

Do you think that business has to be part of the solution?

你認為企業會必須要成為 解決方案的一部分嗎？

AG: Well, definitely,

艾：絕對，因為

because the allocation of capital needed to solve this crisis

解決這場危機所需要的資本分配

超出政府能處理的範圍。

is greater than what governments can handle.

And businesses are beginning,

企業開始——

many businesses are beginning to play a very constructive role.

許多企業開始扮演 非常有建設性的角色。

They're getting a demand that they do so

要求它們這麼做的包括

from their customers, from their investors,

它們的客人、它們的投資者、

from their boards,

它們的股東、

from their executive teams, from their families.

它們的執行團隊、它們的家人。

And by the way,

順道一提，

the rising generation is demanding a brighter future,

正在興起的世代也在要求 要有更光明的未來，

and when CEOs interview potential new hires,

當執行長在面談可能的新進員工時，

they find that the new hires are interviewing them.

他們發現是新進員工在面談他們。

They want to make a nice income,

他們想要有好的收入，

but they want to be able to tell their family and friends and peers

但他們也想要能夠告訴 家人、朋友、同儕

that they're doing something more than just making money.

說他們在做的不只是賺錢。

One illustration of how this new generation is changing, Chris:

克里斯，讓我這樣說明 這個新世代的改變：

there are 65 colleges in the US right now

目前，美國有六十五所大學的

where the College Young Republican Clubs have joined together

大學青年共和黨社團結合在一起，

to jointly demand that the Republican National Committee

聯合要求共和黨全國委員會

change its policy on climate,

要改變對氣候的政策，

lest they lose that entire generation.

要不然他們就會失去 整個世代的支持。

This is a global phenomenon.

這是種全球性的現象。

The Greta Generation is now leading this

在這個議題上，格瑞塔世代現在

在許多面向上都居於領導地位，

in so many ways,

and if you look at the polling,

如果去看民調，

again, the vast majority of young Republicans

同樣的，大部分年輕共和黨支持者

are demanding a change on climate policy.

都要求改變氣候政策。

This is really a movement

這項運動

that is building still.

還持續在延燒。

CA: I was going to ask you about that,

克：我正想問這個，因為在過去 二十年間最痛苦的狀況之一

because one of the most painful things over the last 20 years

has just been how climate has been politicized,

就是氣候被政治化，

certainly in the US.

在美國肯定是如此。

You've probably felt yourself at the heart of that a lot of the time,

你可能常常會覺得 你自己就處在中心地帶，

with people attacking you personally

大家會攻擊你個人，

in the most merciless, and unfair ways, often.

且通常會用最無情、 不公平的方式攻擊。

Do you really see signs that that might be changing,

你真的有看到徵兆， 認為情況可能會改變，

led by the next generation?

由下一個世代來領頭嗎？

AG: Yeah, there's no question about it.

艾：是的，毫無疑問。

I don't want to rely on polls too much.

我不想太仰賴民調。我已經提過了。

I've mentioned them already.

But there was a new one that came out

但有一項新的民調剛公佈，

that looked at the wavering Trump supporters,

研究的是猶豫不決的川普支持者，

those who supported him strongly in the past

他們在過去大力支持他， 且想要再次支持。

and want to do so again.

The number one issue, surprisingly to some,

有些人會感到吃驚，

讓他們遲疑的議題中排名第一的

that is giving them pause,

is the craziness of President Trump and his administration on climate.

是川普總統和他的政府 在氣候方面的瘋狂行徑。

We're seeing big majorities of the Republican Party overall

整體來說，我們看到 大多數的共和黨支持者

saying that they're ready to start exploring some real solutions

都說他們準備好要開始

探究一些能真正解決 氣候危機的解決方案了。

to the climate crisis.

我認為我們正在朝 那個目標邁進，毫無疑問。

I think that we're really getting there, no question about it.

CA: I mean, you've been the figurehead for raising this issue,

克：你是提出這個議題的名義領袖，

and you happen to be a Democrat.

且你剛好是民主黨。

Is there anything that you can personally do

有沒有什麼是你個人能做的，

to -- I don't know -- to open the tent, to welcome people,

來——我不知道—— 也許打開陣營，歡迎大家，

to try and say, "This is beyond politics, dear friends"?

試著說「親愛的朋友們， 這是超越政治的」？

AG: Yeah. Well, I've tried all of those things,

艾：有的，這些我都試過了，

and maybe it's made a little positive difference.

也許有造成一點點

正面的改變。

I've worked with the Republicans extensively.

我一直和共和黨密切合作。

And, you know, well after I left the White House,

在我離開了白宮之後，

I had Newt Gingrich and Pat Robertson

紐特．金瑞契、帕特．羅伯遜，

and other prominent Republicans

及其他重要的共和黨員

appear on national TV ads with me

和我一起出現在 全國電視台的廣告中，

saying we've got to solve the climate crisis.

表明我們必須要解決氣候危機。

But the petroleum industry

但石油產業

has really doubled down

又在共和黨內加碼

enforcing discipline within the Republican Party.

強迫懲戒。

I mean, look at the attacks they've launched against the Pope

看看當教宗帶著教皇通諭出現時，

when he came out with his encyclical

他們對教宗發動的攻擊 並將他妖魔化，

and was demonized,

not by all for sure,

當然不是所有人都這樣，

but there were hawks in the anti-climate movement

但在反氣候運動中有些貪婪的人

who immediately started training their guns on Pope Francis,

馬上開始準備把槍口

對準方濟各教宗，

and there are many other examples.

還有許多其他例子。

They enforce discipline

他們強迫進行懲戒，

and try to make it a partisan issue,

試圖把這個議題變成 黨派偏袒的議題，

even as Democrats reach out

就算民主黨主動試圖

to try to make it bipartisan.

將它變成兩黨支持的議題。

I totally agree with you that it should not be a partisan issue.

我完全同意你說的， 這不該是黨派偏袒的議題。

It didn't use to be,

以前並不是，

but it's been artificially weaponized as an issue.

但有人刻意將這個議題變成了武器。

CA: I mean, the CEOs of oil companies also have kids

克：石油公司的執行長 也有孩子會和他們談。

who are talking to them.

感覺當中有些人在改變，

It feels like some of them are moving

and are trying to invest

試圖投資，

and trying to find ways of being part of the future.

試圖想辦法成為未來的一部分。

Do you see signs of that?

你有看到這方面的徵兆嗎？

AG: Yeah.

艾：有。我認為，

I think that business leaders, including in the oil and gas companies,

企業領導者， 包含石油和天然氣公司，

are hearing from their families.

開始聽到家人的聲音。

They're hearing from their friends.

他們開始聽見朋友的聲音。

They're hearing from their employees.

他們開始聽見員工的聲音。

And, by the way, we've seen in the tech industry

順便一提，我們在科技產業

some mass walkouts by employees

已經看到員工大規模聯合罷工，

who are demanding that some of the tech companies

他們要求一些科技公司

do more and get serious.

做更多、更認真看待。

I'm so proud of Apple.

蘋果讓我感到驕傲。

Forgive me for parenthetically praising Apple.

請原諒我突然插話稱讚蘋果。

You know, I'm on the board, but I'm such a big fan of Tim Cook

我在董事會中，但我是提姆．庫克

and my colleagues at Apple.

及蘋果同僚的大粉絲。

It's an example of a tech company

這個例子就是科技公司

that's really doing fantastic things.

真正在做很棒的事。

And there's some others as well.

還有些其他的公司。

There are others in many industries.

在許多產業都有。

But the pressures on the oil and gas companies

但石油和天然氣公司

所承受的壓力相當巨大。

are quite extraordinary.

You know, BP just wrote down 12 and a half billion dollars' worth

BP 石油公司剛將一百二十五億的

of oil and gas assets

石油和天然氣資產重估減值，

and said that they're never going to see the light of day.

並說它們將永遠不會見到天日。

Two-thirds of the fossil fuels that have already been discovered

已經被發現的化石燃料有三分之二

cannot be burned and will not be burned.

無法且不會被拿來燃燒。

And so that's a big economic risk to the global economy,

那對於全球經濟而言 是很大的經濟風險，

like the subprime mortgage crisis.

就像次級房貸危機。

We've got 22 trillion dollars of subprime carbon assets,

我們有二十二兆美金的 次級貸款碳資產，

and just yesterday, there was a major report

昨天有一份重要報告指出

that the fracking industry in the US

美國的水力壓裂產業

is seeing now a wave of bankruptcies

正在面臨一波破產潮，

because the price of the fracked gas and oil

因為壓裂天然氣和石油的價格

has fallen below levels that make them economic.

掉到讓它們有經濟價值的水平之下。

CA: Is the shorthand of what's happened there

克：這是否是個縮影，反映出

that electric cars and electric technologies and solar and so forth

電動汽車、電動技術、太陽能等等

have helped drive down the price of oil

協助將石油價格壓低，

低到了大量存油都無法

to the point where huge amounts of the reserves

just can't be developed profitably?

做有利潤的開發使用？

AG: Yes, that's it.

艾：是的。

That's mainly it.

主要是如此。

The projections for energy sources in the next several years

針對接下來數年的能源來源做預測，

uniformly predict that electricity from wind and solar

都一致認為風力和太陽能發電

is going to continue to plummet in price,

價格會持續暴跌，

and therefore using gas or coal

因此使用天然氣或煤

to make steam to turn the turbines

來製造蒸氣以驅動渦輪機

is just not going to be economical.

肯定不合經濟效益。

Similarly, the electrification of the transportation sector

同樣的，運輸產業的電氣化

is having the same effect.

也有同樣的效果。

Some are also looking at the trend

也有些人在關注國家、

in national, regional and local governance.

地區、地方管理的趨勢。

I mentioned this before,

我之前有提過，

but they're predicting a very different energy future.

但他們預測的能源未來很不一樣。

But let me come back, Chris,

但，克里斯，容我等下再回來談，

because we talked about business leaders.

因為我們剛在談企業領導人。

I think you were getting in a question a moment ago about capitalism itself,

我想你剛才要問一個 關於資本主義本身的問題，

and I do want to say a word on that,

對這點我有話要說，

because there are a lot of people who say

因為有很多人說，

maybe capitalism is the basic problem.

也許根本問題在於資本主義。

I think the current form of capitalism we have is desperately in need of reform.

依我所見，我們目前的 資本主義形式

迫切需要改革。

The short-term outlook is often mentioned,

常常被提到的是短期的展望，

but the way we measure what is of value to us

但我們用來衡量 什麼對我們有價值的方式，

is also at the heart of the crisis of modern capitalism.

也正是現代資本主義危機的核心。

Now, capitalism is at the base of every successful economy,

所有成功的經濟體， 都是以資本主義為基礎，

and it balances supply and demand,

它讓供應和需求能夠平衡，

unlocks a higher fraction of the human potential,

釋放出更多人類的潛能，

and it's not going anywhere,

它不會有進步，

but it needs to be reformed,

但它需要改革，

because the way we measure what's valuable now

因為現在我們衡量價值的方式

ignores so-called negative externalities

不會考量所謂的負外部性，

like pollution.

比如污染。

It also ignores positive externalities

也不會考量正外部性，

like investments in education and health care,

比如對教育、健康照護、

mental health care, family services.

心理健康照護、家庭服務的投資。

It ignores the depletion of resources like groundwater and topsoil

不會考量是否會損耗資源，

如地下水、表土，

and the web of living species.

以及現存物種的網路。

And it ignores the distribution of incomes and net worths,

不會考量收入和淨值的分配，

so when GDP goes up, people cheer,

所以當 GDP 上升時，大家就歡呼，

two percent, three percent -- wow! -- four percent, and they think, "Great!"

2%、3% ——哇！—— 4%， 他們心想：「太棒了！」

But it's accompanied by vast increases in pollution,

但卻伴隨著污染大量增加、

chronic underinvestment in public goods,

對公共財長期投資不足、

the depletion of irreplaceable natural resources,

損耗無可取代的天然資源，

and the worst inequality crisis we've seen in more than a hundred years

以及一百多年來我們所見到 最糟糕的不平等危機，

that is threatening the future of both capitalism and democracy.

也就是威脅資本主義和民主的未來。

So we have to change it. We have to reform it.

所以我們必須要改變它，改革它。

CA: So reform capitalism, but don't throw it out.

克：改革資本主義，但不要丟棄它。

We're going to need it as a tool as we go forward

我們向前邁進的路上 還是需要這個工具，

if we're to solve this.

才能解決這個問題。

AG: Yeah, I think that's right, and just one other point:

艾：我想沒錯，還有另外一點：

the worst environmental abuses in the last hundred years

在過去一百年間，最糟糕的環境傷害

have been in jurisdictions that experimented during the 20th century

一直都是在二十世紀時實驗嘗試

with the alternatives to capitalism on the left and right.

左翼及右翼資本主義 替代方案的轄區。

CA: Interesting. All right.

克：很有趣。好。

Two last community questions quickly.

快速問最後兩個來自社群的問題。

Chadburn Blomquist:

查德邦恩．布魯奎斯特：

"As you are reading the tea leaves of the impact of the current pandemic,

「當你在預測目前的疫情影響時，

針對我們對抗氣候變遷 所做的因應，在你看來，

what do you think in regard to our response to combatting climate change

什麼是我們所學到最有影響的教訓？」

will be the most impactful lesson learned?"

AG: Boy, that's a very thoughtful question,

艾：天，真是個非常深的問題，

and I wish my answer could rise to the same level on short notice.

我希望我在很短的時間內 回答的答案也能有這個水平。

I would say first,

首先，我會說，

don't ignore the scientists.

不要忽略科學家。

When there is virtual unanimity

當科學專家和醫學專家之間

among the scientific and medical experts,

有實際上的一致看法時，

pay attention.

要重視。

Don't let some politician dissuade you.

別讓某個政客勸阻你。

I think President Trump is slowly learning

我認為川普總統開始慢慢地學到

that's it's kind of difficult to gaslight a virus.

要對病毒用情感操縱是很困難的。

He tried to gaslight the virus in Tulsa.

他試圖在塔爾薩對病毒做情感操縱。

It didn't come off very well,

結果不是很好，

and tragically, he decided to recklessly roll the dice a month ago

不幸的是，

一個月前他決定魯莾地擲骰子，

and ignore the recommendations for people to wear masks

不理會戴口罩

and to socially distance

以及保持社交距離等建議，

and to do the other things,

and I think that lesson is beginning to take hold

我想那教訓開始以更強的方式

站穩腳跟了。

in a much stronger way.

But beyond that, Chris,

但，在那之外，克里斯，

I think that this period of time has been characterized

我認為這段時間的特色

by one of the most profound opportunities

包括一個最深切的機會，

for people to rethink the patterns of their lives

讓人民可以重新思考 他們生活的模式，

and to consider whether or not we can't do a lot of things better

並思考看看是否

我們不能把許多事情做得更好、

and differently.

用不同的方法去做。

And I think that this rising generation I mentioned before

我認為我先前提到的新興世代

has been even more profoundly affected

受到這插曲的影響更深，

by this interlude,

which I hope ends soon,

我希望這插曲能盡快結束，

but I hope the lessons endure.

但我希望教訓能延續。 我認為它們能。

I expect they will.

CA: Yeah, it's amazing how many things you can do without emitting carbon,

克：是啊，其實不用排放碳也可以

做到很多一直被迫去做的事。

that we've been forced to do.

Let's have one more question here.

還有最後一個問題。

Frank Hennessy: "Are you encouraged by the ability of people

法蘭克．漢納西：「人民快速適應 新型冠狀病毒帶來的新常態，

to quickly adapt to the new normal due to COVID-19

這種能力是否讓你感到鼓舞？

as evidence that people can and will change their habits

因為那證明人民能夠／會 改變他們的習慣

to respond to climate change?"

來因應氣候變遷？」

AG: Yes, but I think we have to keep in mind

艾：是的，

但我認為我們要記住，

that there is a crisis within this crisis.

在這場危機之中還有一場危機。

The impact on the African American community, which I mentioned before,

我先前有提到，非裔、

拉丁裔族群受到的影響，

on the Latinx community,

Indigenous peoples.

還有原住民。

The highest infection rate is in the Navajo Nation right now.

現在感染率最高的地區 是納瓦霍族保留地。

So some of these questions appear differently

所以，對於在這場危機中 受到影響極大的人來說，

to those who are really getting the brunt of this crisis,

有些問題顯然會不太一樣，

and it is unacceptable that we allow this to continue.

如果我們讓這種情況繼續下去，

實在是不可接受的。

It feels one way to you and me

你我以及今天觀眾當中許多人

and perhaps to many in our audience today,

可能會有類似的感覺，

but for low-income communities of color,

但對低收入有色人種族群來說，

it's an entirely different crisis,

這是場全然不同的危機，

and we owe it to them

我們虧欠他們，

and to all of us

也虧欠我們所有人，

to get busy and to start using the best science

因此該埋頭苦幹 並開始用最好的科學

and solve this pandemic.

來解決這次疫情。

You know the phrase "pandemic economics."

你知道「疫情經濟」這個詞。

Somebody said, the first principle of pandemic economics

有人說，疫情經濟的 第一條原則就是處理疫情，

is take care of the pandemic,

and we're not doing that yet.

而我們還沒做到這一點。

We're seeing the president try to goose the economy

我們看到總統為了連任 而試圖促進經濟，

for his reelection,

never mind the prediction

完全不在意預測還會造成 另外數萬名美國人死亡，

of tens of thousands of additional American deaths,

and that is just unforgivable in my opinion.

依我所見，這是無可原諒的。

CA: Thank you, Frank.

克：謝謝你，法蘭克。

So Al, you, along with others in the community played a key role

艾爾，你和社群的其他人 扮演了關鍵的角色，

in encouraging TED to launch this initiative called "Countdown."

鼓勵 TED 推出這項 稱為《倒數》的計畫。

Thank you for that,

這方面很謝謝你，

and I guess this conversation is continuing among many of us.

我想我們許多人會繼續 進行這方面的討論。

If you're interested in climate, watching this,

如果各位觀眾對氣候有興趣，

check out the Countdown website,

去看看《倒數》的網站，

countdown.ted.com,

countdown.ted.com，

and be part of 10/10/2020,

並參與 10/10/2020，

when we are trying to put out an alert to the world

那時我們會試圖對世界發出警告，

that climate can't wait,

指出氣候不能再等了， 它真的很重要，

that it really matters,

and there's going to be some amazing content

屆時會有很棒的內容

free to the world on that day.

在那天免費提供給全世界。

Thank you, Al, for your inspiration and support in doing that.

艾爾，謝謝你對這項 計畫的鼓舞及支持。

I wonder whether you could end today's session

你是否能幫今天的節目做個收尾，

just by painting us a picture,

跟大家描述一下，

like how might things roll out over the next decade or so?

在接下來十年左右會是怎樣的狀況？

Just tell us whether there is still a story of hope here.

告訴我們是否還有希望的故事存在。

AG: I'd be glad to.

艾：我很樂意。

I've got to get one plug in. I'll make it brief.

我還要插播一個廣告。我會簡短。

July 18 through July 26,

七月十八日到七月二十六日，

The Climate Reality Project is having a global training.

《氣候實況計畫》要舉辦全球訓練。

We've already had 8,000 people register.

已經有八千人登記。

You can go to climatereality.com.

可以到 climatereality.com。

Now, a bright future.

現在，回到明亮的未來。

It begins with all of the kinds of efforts

這個未來始於組織《倒數》

that you've thrown yourself into in organizing Countdown.

所投入的所有各種心力。

Chris, you and your team have been amazing

克里斯，跟你和你的團隊合作

to work with,

真的很棒，

and I'm so excited about the Countdown project.

我對《倒數》計畫感到很興奮。

TED has an unparalleled ability

TED 有無比的能力

to spread ideas that are worth spreading,

可以將值得散播的想法散播出去，

to raise consciousness,

提升大家的意識，

to enlighten people around the world,

啟發全世界的人，

and it's needed for climate and the solutions to the climate crisis

對於氣候，對於處理 氣候危機的解決方案而言，

like it's never been needed before,

此時都比以往更需要這些，

and I just want to thank you for what you personally are doing

我想要謝謝你個人所做的一切，

to organize this fantastic Countdown program.

組織了這個很棒的《倒數》計畫。

CA: Thank you.

克：謝謝你。世界呢？ 我們會做到嗎？

And the world? Are we going to do this?

你認為人類能扳回一成，

Do you think that humanity is going to pull this off

and that our grandchildren

讓我們的子孫

are going to have beautiful lives

享有美好的生活，

where they can celebrate nature and not spend every day

讓他們可以頌揚大自然， 不用每天都在擔心

in fear of the next tornado or tsunami?

下一個龍捲風或海嘯？

AG: I am optimistic that we will do it,

艾：我很樂觀， 我認為我們會辦到，

but the answer is in our hands.

但答案掌握在我們手中。

We have seen dark times in periods of the past,

在過去我們曾經見過黑暗的時刻，

and we have risen to meet the challenge.

而我們站起來迎接挑戰。

We have limitations of our long evolutionary heritage

我們受限於我們長時間演化的遺產

and elements of our culture,

以及我們文化的元素，

but we also have the ability to transcend our limitations,

但我們也有能力超越我們的限制，

and when the chips are down,

在困難時刻，

and when survival is at stake

在生存受到威脅時，

and when our children and future generations are at stake,

在我們的孩子及未來世代 處在危急關頭，

we're capable of more than we sometimes allow ourselves to think we can do.

我們能發揮的力量 其實超過我們的想像。

This is such a time.

這個時刻來臨了。

I believe we will rise to the occasion,

我相信我們會成功面對困難，

and we will create a bright,

我們會創造一個光明、

clean, prosperous, just and fair future.

乾淨、繁榮、公正、公平的未來。

I believe it with all my heart.

我全心全意相信。

CA: Al Gore, thank you for your life of work,

克：艾爾．高爾， 謝謝你一生的投入，

for all you've done to elevate this issue

為提升這個議題付出的努力，

and for spending this time with us now.

以及騰出時間跟我們談。謝謝你。

Thank you.

AG: Back at you. Thank you.

艾：彼此。謝謝你。