What the World Can Learn From China’s Innovation Playbook | Keyu Jin | TED

翻译人员: Sue Lu 校对人员: Yanyan Hong

So when I was born in China in the early 1980s,

我出生于八十年代初的中国。

my country was still a place of scarcity.

那时我的祖国物质上极其贫乏。

We lived on rationed food, cooked from communal kitchens

我们的食物凭票供应， 烧饭都是在公用厨房里。

and even in Beijing had three nights of blackouts every week.

即使在北京，每周也有三晚停电。

I remember reading poems with my father by candlelight.

记得那时常和父亲在烛光下读诗诵词，

A special memory from times when Chinese people had little.

那是那个贫穷时代 留给我的一段珍贵记忆。

And fast forward three decades,

快进到三十年后的今天，

China has turned into a country of abundance,

中国已变成一个富饶的国家，

especially when it comes to technological power.

尤其是在科技实力方面。

From high tech to business tech to everyday tech,

从高科技到商业科技到日常科技，

there isn't anything you can't find, only things you can't imagine.

没有你找不到的产品， 只有你想象不到的。

I can buy a can of Coke by scanning my face.

买一罐可乐，我可以刷脸支付。

A few years ago,

几年前，

I called for toothpaste from my hotel room,

我在酒店房间打电话要牙膏，

and it was delivered to me by a robot.

居然是机器人给送过来的。

I've seen people live in remote Tibetan mountains blast off cool music

我见过住在偏远西藏山区的人们 随身播放着酷酷的音乐，

with Walkmans powered by solar cells

因为他们拥有 太阳能电池供电的随身听，

and Chinese solar technology light up homes for African kids

而中国的太阳能技术 也点亮了非洲孩子的家园，

who used to study by candlelight, just like me when I was growing up.

他们也曾和我一样只能在烛光下学习。

So this striking swell of innovation happened

中国的创新浪潮汹涌澎湃，

even though China remains a developing country,

即便中国还是一个发展中国家，

with just a little more than 10,000 dollars of per capita GDP.

只有人均一万多美元的 GDP 。

So today I want to offer you a different lens to look through,

因此，今天我想 给大家提供一个不同的视角，

one that shows a unique model that has fostered innovation

来看看一个不同凡响的模式 如何孕育创新，

and technological growth.

以及推动科技发展。

Now the system is far from perfect.

这个系统远非完美，

And like you, I worry about the rising tensions of a tech race and beyond.

和你一样，我也担心科技竞赛 及其它种种所带来的紧张局势。

But I also believe that, as in any relationship,

但我也相信，在任何交往中，

a better understanding of each other

更好地了解彼此，

is going to help us more likely to find common goals to work on

会帮助我们更容易找到共同目标，

rather than a downward spiral that harms all.

而不是陷入伤害所有人的恶性循环。

So I'm an economist,

因为我是一位经济学家，

straddling multiple worlds, as it turns out.

穿梭于世界不同区域。

One foot in London, where I do my research.

一脚踏在伦敦做研究，

And one foot in China,

一脚踏在中国做些工作，

where I spend time with my family and also do a bit of work.

同时陪伴家人父母。

And if I had a third foot,

如果还有第三只脚，

it would be in the US, where I was educated.

那就是踏在美国了——我曾接受教育的地方。

So I can totally see why there's so much misunderstanding

所以，我很清楚为什么有这么多对中国

and incomprehension about this megacountry

这个大国反其道而行之的

that has defied conventional wisdom.

误会和不解。

So let's start out with how China's innovating.

让我们来看看中国是怎么创新的。

Now, innovation isn't just about inventing the next new thing,

创新不止是发明新事物，

like the iPhone or 3D printing or sending people to Mars.

例如苹果手机、3D 打印， 或火箭载人登陆火星。

Technologies that go from zero to one.

这些只代表创新的一种——从无到有。

It could be new applications, business models,

创新也可以是关于 新的应用程序、商业模式、

better processes that lower costs.

以及降低成本的改良之流程。

These one-to-n innovations are just as important.

这些从有到更好的创新，同样重要。

Whatever makes us leaner, cleaner and more productive,

只要能让我们变得 更精简、更洁净、更高效，

all count.

都可算是创新。

So TikTok might not be the first short-video app,

抖音也许不是第一个短视频软件，

but it has garnered more than a billion users around the world.

但它已获得了全世界超过 10 亿的用户。

The Chinese EV company, BYD, didn't make the first prototype.

中国电动汽车公司比亚迪 虽然没做出第一个电动车型，

But compared to Tesla's price point,

但比起特斯拉的价位，

the 15,000-dollars EV cabs that I've taken

我坐过的仅 1.5 万美元的比亚迪电动出租车，

with half a million kilometers of range

能行驶 50 万公里路程，

can meaningfully lead to lower emissions and mass adoption.

真正可以做到在大众中普及， 从而带来低碳排放的实质性减量。

And in the same way,

而同样，

Chinese mobile phones might not be as revolutionary as iPhone,

中国的手机业也许 不似苹果手机般引领变革，

but in African countries, their market share is well over half.

但在非洲各国，它们占据了 一半以上的市场份额。

So this actually solves one big problem for developing countries,

这实际上解决了 发展中国家的一个大问题——

which is the lack of access to suitable technologies that they can actually use.

缺乏能因地制宜的科学技术。

And even if China doesn't do many zero-to-one technologies yet --

即使中国还没有 很多从无到有的科技创新——

at least not yet --

至少目前如此——

it doesn't mean that it can't master high tech, right?

但那并不代表它不能掌握高科技，对吧？

It conducted the first quantum video call,

中国成功进行了首次量子视频通话，

and it launched the first drone that can carry a passenger in air.

并成功运行了第一架 可搭载一名乘客的无人机。

So let's go behind the scenes.

让我们到幕后去看看吧。

Now, yes, many of you would say China's got money, markets, talent

现在你们很多人都会说， 中国有钱，有市场，有人才，

and troves of data, which is so critical in this information age.

还有大数据——信息时代的关键。

But it wasn't just that.

但并不仅仅如此。

Part of the success was also a "whole nation" approach,

中国的成功也要归功于 “全民总动员”的做法，

or what they call a "juguo" system.

或者他们称之为“举国”的体制。

So turning an idea or scientific discovery into commercial success

将一个想法或科研成果 转变为商业成就

requires an innovation ecosystem.

需要一个良好的创新生态系统。

The collaboration of universities, national labs and industries,

比如大学、国家实验室、 和工商业界之间的合作，

not to mention enormous amount of funding

以及巨量的投资

that covers long and uncertain investment cycles.

来涵盖时间长且不确定的投资周期。

Now, many of you might think

你们许多人大概会认为

that groundbreaking technologies are the products of stars,

尖端突破性科技都是 明星级的精英人物创造的，

the likes of Steve Jobs or Elon Musks.

如史蒂夫·乔布斯或埃隆·马斯克。

But every time you use the internet,

但其实你能够用上互联网，

the GPS or yell at your Alexa,

GPS 导航，向着亚马逊的 Alexa 语音助手喊叫，

you have the US government to thank for.

那都是美国政府的功劳。

We often forget that the Apollo program, the Manhattan Project,

我们常常忘记， 阿波罗计划，曼哈顿项目，

even Japan's rise to semiconductor stardom,

甚至日本崛起 成为半导体领域的明星，

were all horizontal systems with critical state backing.

其实都是得益于政府 大力支持的横向经济体制。

Now, China's "juguo" system is an entire nation

而中国的“举国”体制则是全国全民

behind one strategic goal.

支持一个共同的战略目标。

Mobilizing national resources, casting the net wide,

调动国家资源，广撒网，

not tallying costs.

不计成本。

And it’s the same system that’s used to reap

就是在这种体制下，中国曾收获了

as many Olympic gold medals as possible.

许许多多的奥林匹克金牌。

And so thanks to this ecosystem,

因为这种创新生态系统的存在，

China became the largest consumer and producers of EVs

中国成为最大的电动车生产和消费国，

in less than a decade.

仅用了不到十年的时间。

With more cars sold there

2020 年，在中国市场上 销售的电动车

than in the rest of the world combined in 2020.

超过了世界其它国家的销售总和。

Now in the West,

在西方国家，

we often talk about "nudging" consumers to make better choices.

我们经常谈到“推动”消费者 做出更好的选择。

但在中国，新一代交通工具 能成为大众消费产品，

But in China, mass adoption of next-gen transportation happened like that.

Well, in part thanks to the state rolling out four million charging stations

部分得归功于政府 修建的 400 万个充电站，

around the country,

遍布全国。

并协调供应链—— 从电池制造，控制系统，

coordinating supply chains from battery makers to control systems

and manufacturers.

到生产厂家。

Today, there are 140,000 chargers in the US in the entire country.

目前，美国总共只有 14 万充电站。

So that is kind of, the "whole nation" approach.

所以，这就是中国的 “全国总动员”做法带来的效应。

But that's not actually the story I want to tell you.

其实，这并不是我最想讲的。

There's an even more nuanced story that happens on the ground.

那里还有更加多姿多彩 发生在基层的商业运作呢。

We call it the “mayor economy,”

我们称之为“市长经济”，

and it's a decentralized economic model

一个权利下放的经济模式，

that galvanizes creativity from the ground up.

自下而上激发创造力。

And contrary to popular perception,

与流行的看法正相反，

it isn't a centralized approach dominated by an almighty state.

那并不是一个全能的中央政府 集权管制一切的作法，

And so here's how it works.

其运作是这样的。

So Nio is one of the top three EV companies in China.

比如 Nio 电动车公司，在中国排名前三，

Its cars are driven everywhere on the streets of Beijing and Shanghai.

其电动车在北京上海的 大街小巷处处可见。

Now, two years after it was listed on Nasdaq in 2018,

在纳斯达克上市两年之后的 2018 年，

it was on the verge of bankruptcy.

Nio 几乎濒临破产。

Now, at this point,

在此危急关头，

the local government of Hefei,

合肥市政府，

a small town in eastern China with five million people,

一个管辖中国东部 五百万人口小城市的地方政府，

convinced it to move its headquarters there.

说服 Nio 把公司总部搬到合肥。

The local government injected a billion dollars

然后给它投资 10 亿美元

in exchange for a 25-percent stake,

以换取 25% 的股份。

arranged more loans for the company

还给它安排了一些贷款，

and most importantly,

更重要的是，

organized an entire supply chain around Nio.

还以 Nio 为中心组建了整条供应链。

It took only a year before Nio's production grew by 81 percent,

仅仅一年时间 Nio 的产量 就增长了 81% ，

its market cap went from four to 100 billion dollars.

它的市值从 40 亿增涨到 1000 亿美元。

And the local government of Hefei cashed out within a year,

因此，合肥市政府一年内就回本获利，

and Nio's life was saved.

同时 Nio 也得救了。

And so for every local government behind a Nio,

每一个 Nio 身后都有一个地方政府的支持，

there's another mayor behind a competitor.

每一个 Nio 的竞争对手身后， 也有一个市长的支持。

And there are literally hundreds of EV companies vying for survival

数百家电动车公司 在奋力拼搏着以求生存，

in ruthless competition.

这的确是一场残酷的竞争。

So,

所以，

if you are actually a promising tech company,

如果你真的是一家很有潜力的科技公司，

local governments will move mountains to help.

地方政府就会尽全力帮助你。

Remove red tape, check.

去除繁文缛节，没问题。

Find you more financing, check.

找来更多投资，没问题。

Get a job for your spouse, check.

给你的配偶提供工作，没问题。

Piece of cake.

全是小菜一碟。

They are a one-stop shop, as they like to call themselves.

他们称这是一站式服务，应有尽有。

Now in the vigorous bid for Amazon's second headquarters,

在为争夺亚马逊 第二个总部址的竞标中，

there were some creative offers.

曾有一些很有创意的投标。

One state sent a giant cactus as a gift.

一个州送去巨型的仙人掌礼物，

Another state offered to rename a town Amazon.

另一个州表示要将某城镇改名为亚马逊。

But it basically came to some tax breaks,

但其实它们主要还是 靠提供税务优惠吸引亚马逊。

not quite like what the Chinese mayors had to offer.

跟中国市长提供的，不太一样。

But of course,

当然，

the US government is no stranger to supporting big-shot companies

美国政府支持大公司 也是家常便饭的事。

like SpaceX and Tesla, offering billions in benefits.

比如, 它曾给 SpaceX 和特斯拉 提供了数亿美元的好处和优惠。

But in China, it's really this marriage between hyper-charged local officials

但在中国，积极主动的地方官员

and intrepid entrepreneurs of all ilk

和各行各业无畏的企业家的紧密合作，

that is at the heart of its model.

是其运作模式的核心。

And here's why.

例如，

So the local government of Hefei,

合肥市政府，

the one that made a killing with Nio,

和 Nio 一起大赚一笔的那个政府，

well, it wasn't just after the return on investment, per se.

嗯，它不仅仅是追求投资回报本身。

But it was by luring companies like Nio

它更希望通过吸引像 Nio 这样的大企业，

that it’s looking to create a mini Silicon Valley of sorts.

来打造出一个小型硅谷。

An industrial clutter, a talent pool,

一个工业园，人才库，

a flourishing retail and service industry

一个繁荣的零售和服务行业，

that gets them more jobs, more tax revenues.

从而产生更多的就业机会， 更多的税务收入。

And guess what?

知道吗？

Even the real estate and land they own are suddenly worth more,

就连他们持有的房产和土地， 突然间也增值不少，

all because of the economics of agglomeration and multiplier effects,

都是因为经济学上的聚集效应和倍增效应，

because the local mayors are actually an equity stakeholder of the entire city.

也因为当地市长也是整个城市的股东之一。

So in sum,

总而言之，

it's this political centralization

政治上集权，

and economic decentralization

经济上分权，

that is actually a simple representation of China's model.

这就是中国模式的简单诠释。

It's the same model used to urbanize, to grow and now to innovate.

它已被成功用于乡镇城市化， 国家发展及创新上。

Now, for all of its successes,

但为了这些成功，

there were huge costs, I admit.

我不得不承认，付出的代价也是巨大的。

Waste left in the wake,

比如遗留下来的废物，

inefficient investments, wrong bets.

低效的投资，错误的投机决策。

Now, some of these challenges are being addressed, thankfully,

不过谢天谢地，至少一部分 问题已得到重视和处理，

like environmental degradation,

比如环境恶化问题。

but there are others that remain in urgent need of fixing.

但仍有好些问题亟待解决。

So I'm not suggesting that there's some universal recipe

因此，我并不是说有什么世界通用的秘方，

or that it's perfect

或完美的执行方案，

or that it can be easily replicated.

可以让任何国家复制。

But what we do know is that there's more than one way of making things work.

但可以肯定的是，条条道路通罗马。

And recognizing that there is some wisdom to China's approach

承认中国的做法有一定道理，

doesn't mean endorsing all of it.

并非是说它全都是对的。

But I guess there's something to learn from each other.

我想我们可以彼此学习。

And for one,

至少，

China didn't sit on the tarmac waiting for a technological takeoff.

中国没有守株待兔，坐等科技的腾飞。

Instead, it was the big push from the ground up.

相反，它努力自下而上地 推动了全国创新发展。

So I came to the US as an exchange student in 1997,

1997 年，我作为交换生来到美国，

and I was mesmerized.

一下子就被迷住了。

I saw enormous possibility between the East and the West,

我看到了东西方之间互惠的巨大潜力——

as they competed, collaborated and spurred each other forward.

彼此间竞争、合作、 相互鞭策着向前发展。

I still believe in this,

我始终相信，

even though frost has set in

尽管霜冻已经降临，

and there may be chill in the air for some time

寒意在世界两大经济强国之间

between the two largest economies in the world.

可能还会持续一段时间。

Some may fear China's juggernaut innovation.

有些人可能害怕中国 势不可挡的巨量创新。

Some may not like competition, which is rarely comfortable.

有些人可能不喜欢竞争， 竞争从来就不是件轻松事。

But having someone in your rearview mirror

其实，如果看到有人在你的后视镜里，

helps you keep up the pace.

那会促使你保持 前行速度，也未尝不好。

Japan's technological rise in the 1980s

日本在 80 年代的科技崛起，

pushed the US to overhaul its innovation system

促使美国推翻其陈旧的创新体制，

and regain the lead in the 1990s.

进而在 90 年代重新领先于世界。

The US subsequently did the same for Japan,

美国对日本也起了同样的推动作用。

and as a result, we all have cheaper and better products.

最终我们都得益—— 用上更价廉物美的产品。

Today, Chinese EV company BYD is pushing Tesla to new heights and vice versa.

现在，中国电动车公司比亚迪 推动特斯拉更上一层楼，反之亦然。

Tesla opted for a Chinese battery maker,

特斯拉选择中国电池生产商，

which is pushing the German government to do more in that space.

促使德国政府在此领域投入更多。

And it's that mutual learning

这种相互学习，

and constant threat of being overtaken

及面临随时可能被超越的潜在威胁，

that pushes the technology frontier further and beyond.

推动技术前沿走得更深更远。

But one thing's for sure, true,

有一点可以肯定，

it just doesn't happen in geographical isolation.

地域隔绝是行不通的。

So ...

因此，

I’ve come here, and I imagine the possibilities

我站在这里，想象着

两个大国之间的种种可能性。

between the two countries,

and I understand that there are national security concerns

我知道有很多关于国家安全的担忧，

that countries will have to respect.

那是我们应该尊重的。

But not everything is about national security.

但国家安全并非全部。

The trillion dollars or more at stake with the economic disengagement

两个超级大国的经济不合作

会造成超过数万亿美元的损失。

between the two largest countries

can do so much as eradicate malaria, end world hunger,

这些钱可以做很多事， 如消灭疟疾、全球饥荒、

conserve biodiversity and more.

生态多样性保护，等等。

So let's not forget that there are more sacred things in life.

请别忘记人生中有着更加神圣的使命。

Such as a brighter future for our children and a cleaner Earth.

比如，孩子更光明的未来， 一个更洁净的地球。

Let's not forget that in the developing world,

请别忘记在发展中国家，

there's still so much unnecessary misery.

仍然有着无数完全可以避免的苦难。

And that its people also have the right to enjoy the dignity in life

那里的人们同样有权利 过上有尊严的生活，

as those who are more fortunate.

他们应该和那些幸运的人群 得到同样的对待。

And so for all of this to happen,

为了实现这一切，

it seems to me

我相信，

that what we ultimately need is the cheapest and best technologies,

我们最终需要的就是价廉物美的科技，

rather than worry about where they come from

完全没必要去担心它们来自何处，

or who will dominate.

或谁在其后主导一切。

Thank you.

谢谢大家。

(Applause)

（掌声）