What the World Can Learn From China’s Innovation Playbook | Keyu Jin | TED
343,088 views ・ 2023-05-15
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翻译人员: Sue Lu
校对人员: Yanyan Hong
00:04
So when I was born in China
in the early 1980s,
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我出生于八十年代初的中国。
00:08
my country was still a place of scarcity.
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那时我的祖国物质上极其贫乏。
00:11
We lived on rationed food,
cooked from communal kitchens
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我们的食物凭票供应,
烧饭都是在公用厨房里。
00:14
and even in Beijing had three nights
of blackouts every week.
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即使在北京,每周也有三晚停电。
00:19
I remember reading poems
with my father by candlelight.
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记得那时常和父亲在烛光下读诗诵词,
00:23
A special memory from times
when Chinese people had little.
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那是那个贫穷时代
留给我的一段珍贵记忆。
00:28
And fast forward three decades,
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快进到三十年后的今天,
00:30
China has turned
into a country of abundance,
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中国已变成一个富饶的国家,
00:33
especially when it comes
to technological power.
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尤其是在科技实力方面。
00:37
From high tech to business tech
to everyday tech,
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从高科技到商业科技到日常科技,
00:40
there isn't anything you can't find,
only things you can't imagine.
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没有你找不到的产品,
只有你想象不到的。
00:45
I can buy a can of Coke
by scanning my face.
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买一罐可乐,我可以刷脸支付。
00:48
A few years ago,
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几年前,
00:50
I called for toothpaste
from my hotel room,
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我在酒店房间打电话要牙膏,
00:52
and it was delivered to me by a robot.
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居然是机器人给送过来的。
00:56
I've seen people live in remote Tibetan
mountains blast off cool music
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我见过住在偏远西藏山区的人们
随身播放着酷酷的音乐,
01:01
with Walkmans powered by solar cells
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因为他们拥有
太阳能电池供电的随身听,
01:04
and Chinese solar technology
light up homes for African kids
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而中国的太阳能技术
也点亮了非洲孩子的家园,
01:08
who used to study by candlelight,
just like me when I was growing up.
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他们也曾和我一样只能在烛光下学习。
01:12
So this striking swell
of innovation happened
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中国的创新浪潮汹涌澎湃,
01:15
even though China remains
a developing country,
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即便中国还是一个发展中国家,
01:18
with just a little more
than 10,000 dollars of per capita GDP.
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只有人均一万多美元的 GDP 。
01:22
So today I want to offer you
a different lens to look through,
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因此,今天我想
给大家提供一个不同的视角,
01:27
one that shows a unique model
that has fostered innovation
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来看看一个不同凡响的模式
如何孕育创新,
01:31
and technological growth.
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以及推动科技发展。
01:34
Now the system is far from perfect.
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这个系统远非完美,
01:37
And like you, I worry about the rising
tensions of a tech race and beyond.
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和你一样,我也担心科技竞赛
及其它种种所带来的紧张局势。
01:42
But I also believe
that, as in any relationship,
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但我也相信,在任何交往中,
01:45
a better understanding of each other
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更好地了解彼此,
01:47
is going to help us more likely to find
common goals to work on
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会帮助我们更容易找到共同目标,
01:51
rather than a downward
spiral that harms all.
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而不是陷入伤害所有人的恶性循环。
01:56
So I'm an economist,
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因为我是一位经济学家,
01:58
straddling multiple worlds,
as it turns out.
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穿梭于世界不同区域。
02:00
One foot in London,
where I do my research.
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一脚踏在伦敦做研究,
02:02
And one foot in China,
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一脚踏在中国做些工作,
02:04
where I spend time with my family
and also do a bit of work.
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同时陪伴家人父母。
02:08
And if I had a third foot,
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如果还有第三只脚,
02:10
it would be in the US,
where I was educated.
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那就是踏在美国了——我曾接受教育的地方。
02:13
So I can totally see why
there's so much misunderstanding
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所以,我很清楚为什么有这么多对中国
02:17
and incomprehension
about this megacountry
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这个大国反其道而行之的
02:19
that has defied conventional wisdom.
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误会和不解。
02:23
So let's start out
with how China's innovating.
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让我们来看看中国是怎么创新的。
02:27
Now, innovation isn't just
about inventing the next new thing,
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创新不止是发明新事物,
02:31
like the iPhone or 3D printing
or sending people to Mars.
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例如苹果手机、3D 打印,
或火箭载人登陆火星。
02:35
Technologies that go from zero to one.
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这些只代表创新的一种——从无到有。
02:38
It could be new applications,
business models,
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创新也可以是关于
新的应用程序、商业模式、
02:42
better processes that lower costs.
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以及降低成本的改良之流程。
02:45
These one-to-n innovations
are just as important.
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这些从有到更好的创新,同样重要。
02:48
Whatever makes us leaner,
cleaner and more productive,
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只要能让我们变得
更精简、更洁净、更高效,
02:52
all count.
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都可算是创新。
02:54
So TikTok might not be
the first short-video app,
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抖音也许不是第一个短视频软件,
02:57
but it has garnered more
than a billion users around the world.
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但它已获得了全世界超过 10 亿的用户。
03:02
The Chinese EV company, BYD,
didn't make the first prototype.
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中国电动汽车公司比亚迪
虽然没做出第一个电动车型,
03:07
But compared to Tesla's price point,
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但比起特斯拉的价位,
03:10
the 15,000-dollars EV cabs that I've taken
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我坐过的仅 1.5 万美元的比亚迪电动出租车,
03:12
with half a million kilometers of range
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能行驶 50 万公里路程,
03:15
can meaningfully lead to lower
emissions and mass adoption.
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真正可以做到在大众中普及,
从而带来低碳排放的实质性减量。
03:20
And in the same way,
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而同样,
03:22
Chinese mobile phones
might not be as revolutionary as iPhone,
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中国的手机业也许
不似苹果手机般引领变革,
03:25
but in African countries,
their market share is well over half.
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但在非洲各国,它们占据了
一半以上的市场份额。
03:31
So this actually solves one big problem
for developing countries,
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这实际上解决了
发展中国家的一个大问题——
03:36
which is the lack of access to suitable
technologies that they can actually use.
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缺乏能因地制宜的科学技术。
03:42
And even if China doesn't do many
zero-to-one technologies yet --
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即使中国还没有
很多从无到有的科技创新——
03:48
at least not yet --
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至少目前如此——
03:49
it doesn't mean that it can't
master high tech, right?
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但那并不代表它不能掌握高科技,对吧?
03:53
It conducted the first quantum video call,
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中国成功进行了首次量子视频通话,
03:56
and it launched the first drone
that can carry a passenger in air.
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并成功运行了第一架
可搭载一名乘客的无人机。
04:00
So let's go behind the scenes.
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让我们到幕后去看看吧。
04:02
Now, yes, many of you would say
China's got money, markets, talent
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现在你们很多人都会说,
中国有钱,有市场,有人才,
04:08
and troves of data, which is so critical
in this information age.
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还有大数据——信息时代的关键。
04:13
But it wasn't just that.
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但并不仅仅如此。
04:15
Part of the success was also
a "whole nation" approach,
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中国的成功也要归功于
“全民总动员”的做法,
04:20
or what they call a "juguo" system.
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或者他们称之为“举国”的体制。
04:24
So turning an idea or scientific discovery
into commercial success
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将一个想法或科研成果
转变为商业成就
04:30
requires an innovation ecosystem.
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需要一个良好的创新生态系统。
04:34
The collaboration of universities,
national labs and industries,
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比如大学、国家实验室、
和工商业界之间的合作,
04:37
not to mention enormous amount of funding
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以及巨量的投资
04:39
that covers long
and uncertain investment cycles.
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来涵盖时间长且不确定的投资周期。
04:43
Now, many of you might think
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你们许多人大概会认为
04:45
that groundbreaking technologies
are the products of stars,
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尖端突破性科技都是
明星级的精英人物创造的,
04:48
the likes of Steve Jobs or Elon Musks.
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如史蒂夫·乔布斯或埃隆·马斯克。
04:51
But every time you use the internet,
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但其实你能够用上互联网,
04:54
the GPS or yell at your Alexa,
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GPS 导航,向着亚马逊的
Alexa 语音助手喊叫,
04:57
you have the US government to thank for.
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那都是美国政府的功劳。
05:00
We often forget that the Apollo program,
the Manhattan Project,
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我们常常忘记,
阿波罗计划,曼哈顿项目,
05:05
even Japan's rise
to semiconductor stardom,
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甚至日本崛起
成为半导体领域的明星,
05:08
were all horizontal systems
with critical state backing.
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其实都是得益于政府
大力支持的横向经济体制。
05:14
Now, China's "juguo" system
is an entire nation
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而中国的“举国”体制则是全国全民
05:17
behind one strategic goal.
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支持一个共同的战略目标。
05:20
Mobilizing national resources,
casting the net wide,
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调动国家资源,广撒网,
05:23
not tallying costs.
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不计成本。
05:24
And it’s the same system
that’s used to reap
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就是在这种体制下,中国曾收获了
05:27
as many Olympic gold medals as possible.
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许许多多的奥林匹克金牌。
05:31
And so thanks to this ecosystem,
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因为这种创新生态系统的存在,
05:34
China became the largest consumer
and producers of EVs
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中国成为最大的电动车生产和消费国,
05:38
in less than a decade.
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仅用了不到十年的时间。
05:40
With more cars sold there
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2020 年,在中国市场上
销售的电动车
05:41
than in the rest of the world
combined in 2020.
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超过了世界其它国家的销售总和。
05:45
Now in the West,
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在西方国家,
05:46
we often talk about "nudging" consumers
to make better choices.
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我们经常谈到“推动”消费者
做出更好的选择。
但在中国,新一代交通工具
能成为大众消费产品,
05:52
But in China, mass adoption of next-gen
transportation happened like that.
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05:56
Well, in part thanks to the state
rolling out four million charging stations
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部分得归功于政府
修建的 400 万个充电站,
06:00
around the country,
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遍布全国。
并协调供应链——
从电池制造,控制系统,
06:02
coordinating supply chains
from battery makers to control systems
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06:05
and manufacturers.
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到生产厂家。
06:06
Today, there are 140,000 chargers
in the US in the entire country.
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目前,美国总共只有 14 万充电站。
06:14
So that is kind of,
the "whole nation" approach.
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所以,这就是中国的
“全国总动员”做法带来的效应。
06:19
But that's not actually
the story I want to tell you.
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其实,这并不是我最想讲的。
06:22
There's an even more nuanced story
that happens on the ground.
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那里还有更加多姿多彩
发生在基层的商业运作呢。
06:26
We call it the “mayor economy,”
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我们称之为“市长经济”,
06:28
and it's a decentralized economic model
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一个权利下放的经济模式,
06:30
that galvanizes creativity
from the ground up.
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自下而上激发创造力。
06:34
And contrary to popular perception,
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与流行的看法正相反,
06:36
it isn't a centralized approach
dominated by an almighty state.
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那并不是一个全能的中央政府
集权管制一切的作法,
06:42
And so here's how it works.
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其运作是这样的。
06:45
So Nio is one of the top three
EV companies in China.
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比如 Nio 电动车公司,在中国排名前三,
06:49
Its cars are driven everywhere
on the streets of Beijing and Shanghai.
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其电动车在北京上海的
大街小巷处处可见。
06:53
Now, two years after it was listed
on Nasdaq in 2018,
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在纳斯达克上市两年之后的 2018 年,
06:57
it was on the verge of bankruptcy.
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Nio 几乎濒临破产。
07:00
Now, at this point,
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在此危急关头,
07:01
the local government of Hefei,
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合肥市政府,
07:03
a small town in eastern China
with five million people,
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一个管辖中国东部
五百万人口小城市的地方政府,
07:07
convinced it to move
its headquarters there.
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说服 Nio 把公司总部搬到合肥。
07:12
The local government
injected a billion dollars
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然后给它投资 10 亿美元
07:14
in exchange for a 25-percent stake,
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以换取 25% 的股份。
07:17
arranged more loans for the company
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还给它安排了一些贷款,
07:19
and most importantly,
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更重要的是,
07:21
organized an entire
supply chain around Nio.
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还以 Nio 为中心组建了整条供应链。
07:24
It took only a year before Nio's
production grew by 81 percent,
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仅仅一年时间 Nio 的产量
就增长了 81% ,
07:28
its market cap went
from four to 100 billion dollars.
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它的市值从 40 亿增涨到 1000 亿美元。
07:32
And the local government of Hefei
cashed out within a year,
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因此,合肥市政府一年内就回本获利,
07:35
and Nio's life was saved.
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同时 Nio 也得救了。
07:38
And so for every local
government behind a Nio,
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每一个 Nio 身后都有一个地方政府的支持,
07:42
there's another mayor behind a competitor.
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每一个 Nio 的竞争对手身后,
也有一个市长的支持。
07:45
And there are literally hundreds
of EV companies vying for survival
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数百家电动车公司
在奋力拼搏着以求生存,
07:49
in ruthless competition.
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这的确是一场残酷的竞争。
07:52
So,
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所以,
07:54
if you are actually
a promising tech company,
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如果你真的是一家很有潜力的科技公司,
07:57
local governments
will move mountains to help.
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地方政府就会尽全力帮助你。
08:01
Remove red tape, check.
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去除繁文缛节,没问题。
08:04
Find you more financing, check.
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找来更多投资,没问题。
08:07
Get a job for your spouse, check.
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给你的配偶提供工作,没问题。
08:10
Piece of cake.
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全是小菜一碟。
08:12
They are a one-stop shop,
as they like to call themselves.
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他们称这是一站式服务,应有尽有。
08:16
Now in the vigorous bid
for Amazon's second headquarters,
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在为争夺亚马逊
第二个总部址的竞标中,
08:22
there were some creative offers.
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曾有一些很有创意的投标。
08:25
One state sent a giant cactus as a gift.
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一个州送去巨型的仙人掌礼物,
08:30
Another state offered
to rename a town Amazon.
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另一个州表示要将某城镇改名为亚马逊。
08:34
But it basically came to some tax breaks,
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但其实它们主要还是
靠提供税务优惠吸引亚马逊。
08:37
not quite like what the Chinese
mayors had to offer.
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跟中国市长提供的,不太一样。
08:42
But of course,
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当然,
08:43
the US government is no stranger
to supporting big-shot companies
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美国政府支持大公司
也是家常便饭的事。
08:46
like SpaceX and Tesla,
offering billions in benefits.
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比如, 它曾给 SpaceX 和特斯拉
提供了数亿美元的好处和优惠。
08:51
But in China, it's really this marriage
between hyper-charged local officials
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但在中国,积极主动的地方官员
08:56
and intrepid entrepreneurs of all ilk
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和各行各业无畏的企业家的紧密合作,
08:58
that is at the heart of its model.
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是其运作模式的核心。
09:00
And here's why.
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例如,
09:02
So the local government of Hefei,
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合肥市政府,
09:04
the one that made a killing with Nio,
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和 Nio 一起大赚一笔的那个政府,
09:06
well, it wasn't just after
the return on investment, per se.
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嗯,它不仅仅是追求投资回报本身。
09:10
But it was by luring companies like Nio
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它更希望通过吸引像 Nio 这样的大企业,
09:12
that it’s looking to create
a mini Silicon Valley of sorts.
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来打造出一个小型硅谷。
09:16
An industrial clutter, a talent pool,
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一个工业园,人才库,
09:19
a flourishing retail and service industry
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一个繁荣的零售和服务行业,
09:22
that gets them more jobs,
more tax revenues.
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从而产生更多的就业机会,
更多的税务收入。
09:25
And guess what?
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知道吗?
09:26
Even the real estate and land they own
are suddenly worth more,
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就连他们持有的房产和土地,
突然间也增值不少,
09:29
all because of the economics
of agglomeration and multiplier effects,
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都是因为经济学上的聚集效应和倍增效应,
09:33
because the local mayors are actually
an equity stakeholder of the entire city.
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也因为当地市长也是整个城市的股东之一。
09:41
So in sum,
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总而言之,
09:44
it's this political centralization
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政治上集权,
09:48
and economic decentralization
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经济上分权,
09:51
that is actually a simple
representation of China's model.
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这就是中国模式的简单诠释。
09:54
It's the same model used to urbanize,
to grow and now to innovate.
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它已被成功用于乡镇城市化,
国家发展及创新上。
10:00
Now, for all of its successes,
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但为了这些成功,
10:03
there were huge costs, I admit.
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我不得不承认,付出的代价也是巨大的。
10:06
Waste left in the wake,
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比如遗留下来的废物,
10:07
inefficient investments, wrong bets.
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低效的投资,错误的投机决策。
10:11
Now, some of these challenges
are being addressed, thankfully,
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不过谢天谢地,至少一部分
问题已得到重视和处理,
10:14
like environmental degradation,
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比如环境恶化问题。
10:15
but there are others that remain
in urgent need of fixing.
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3044
但仍有好些问题亟待解决。
10:19
So I'm not suggesting
that there's some universal recipe
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因此,我并不是说有什么世界通用的秘方,
10:22
or that it's perfect
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或完美的执行方案,
10:24
or that it can be easily replicated.
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可以让任何国家复制。
10:27
But what we do know is that there's more
than one way of making things work.
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但可以肯定的是,条条道路通罗马。
10:32
And recognizing that there is
some wisdom to China's approach
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承认中国的做法有一定道理,
10:36
doesn't mean endorsing all of it.
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并非是说它全都是对的。
10:39
But I guess there's something
to learn from each other.
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我想我们可以彼此学习。
10:42
And for one,
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至少,
10:44
China didn't sit on the tarmac
waiting for a technological takeoff.
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中国没有守株待兔,坐等科技的腾飞。
10:49
Instead, it was the big push
from the ground up.
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相反,它努力自下而上地
推动了全国创新发展。
10:55
So I came to the US
as an exchange student in 1997,
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1997 年,我作为交换生来到美国,
11:00
and I was mesmerized.
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1877
一下子就被迷住了。
11:02
I saw enormous possibility
between the East and the West,
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我看到了东西方之间互惠的巨大潜力——
11:06
as they competed, collaborated
and spurred each other forward.
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彼此间竞争、合作、
相互鞭策着向前发展。
11:11
I still believe in this,
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我始终相信,
11:13
even though frost has set in
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2127
尽管霜冻已经降临,
11:15
and there may be chill
in the air for some time
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寒意在世界两大经济强国之间
11:17
between the two largest
economies in the world.
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可能还会持续一段时间。
11:20
Some may fear China's
juggernaut innovation.
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有些人可能害怕中国
势不可挡的巨量创新。
11:24
Some may not like competition,
which is rarely comfortable.
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有些人可能不喜欢竞争,
竞争从来就不是件轻松事。
11:27
But having someone in your rearview mirror
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其实,如果看到有人在你的后视镜里,
11:30
helps you keep up the pace.
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那会促使你保持
前行速度,也未尝不好。
11:33
Japan's technological rise in the 1980s
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日本在 80 年代的科技崛起,
11:36
pushed the US to overhaul
its innovation system
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促使美国推翻其陈旧的创新体制,
11:39
and regain the lead in the 1990s.
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2335
进而在 90 年代重新领先于世界。
11:42
The US subsequently
did the same for Japan,
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美国对日本也起了同样的推动作用。
11:44
and as a result, we all have cheaper
and better products.
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最终我们都得益——
用上更价廉物美的产品。
11:48
Today, Chinese EV company BYD is pushing
Tesla to new heights and vice versa.
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现在,中国电动车公司比亚迪
推动特斯拉更上一层楼,反之亦然。
11:55
Tesla opted for a Chinese battery maker,
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特斯拉选择中国电池生产商,
11:58
which is pushing the German government
to do more in that space.
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促使德国政府在此领域投入更多。
12:02
And it's that mutual learning
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这种相互学习,
12:03
and constant threat of being overtaken
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2378
及面临随时可能被超越的潜在威胁,
12:06
that pushes the technology frontier
further and beyond.
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3336
推动技术前沿走得更深更远。
12:10
But one thing's for sure, true,
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有一点可以肯定,
12:12
it just doesn't happen
in geographical isolation.
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地域隔绝是行不通的。
12:17
So ...
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1127
因此,
12:19
I’ve come here, and I imagine
the possibilities
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4505
我站在这里,想象着
两个大国之间的种种可能性。
12:23
between the two countries,
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1793
12:25
and I understand that there are
national security concerns
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3962
我知道有很多关于国家安全的担忧,
12:29
that countries will have to respect.
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2002
那是我们应该尊重的。
12:32
But not everything
is about national security.
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但国家安全并非全部。
12:35
The trillion dollars or more at stake
with the economic disengagement
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两个超级大国的经济不合作
会造成超过数万亿美元的损失。
12:39
between the two largest countries
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1585
12:40
can do so much as eradicate
malaria, end world hunger,
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这些钱可以做很多事,
如消灭疟疾、全球饥荒、
12:44
conserve biodiversity and more.
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生态多样性保护,等等。
12:47
So let's not forget that there are
more sacred things in life.
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请别忘记人生中有着更加神圣的使命。
12:52
Such as a brighter future
for our children and a cleaner Earth.
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3962
比如,孩子更光明的未来,
一个更洁净的地球。
12:57
Let's not forget
that in the developing world,
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2252
请别忘记在发展中国家,
12:59
there's still so much unnecessary misery.
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仍然有着无数完全可以避免的苦难。
13:03
And that its people also have the right
to enjoy the dignity in life
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那里的人们同样有权利
过上有尊严的生活,
13:08
as those who are more fortunate.
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1960
他们应该和那些幸运的人群
得到同样的对待。
13:11
And so for all of this to happen,
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2377
为了实现这一切,
13:13
it seems to me
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我相信,
13:15
that what we ultimately need
is the cheapest and best technologies,
234
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5046
我们最终需要的就是价廉物美的科技,
13:20
rather than worry
about where they come from
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完全没必要去担心它们来自何处,
13:23
or who will dominate.
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1960
或谁在其后主导一切。
13:25
Thank you.
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谢谢大家。
13:26
(Applause)
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(掌声)
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