What the World Can Learn From China’s Innovation Playbook | Keyu Jin | TED

譯者: Lilian Chiu 審譯者: Helen Chang

So when I was born in China in the early 1980s,

1980 年代初，我在中國出生，

my country was still a place of scarcity.

我的國家仍然是個物資匱乏的地方。

We lived on rationed food, cooked from communal kitchens

我們靠配給的食物過日子，

在公共廚房烹飪，

and even in Beijing had three nights of blackouts every week.

就連在北京，每週 也會有三個晚上停電。

I remember reading poems with my father by candlelight.

我記得和父親在燭光下讀詩。

A special memory from times when Chinese people had little.

這個特別的記憶來自 中國人民物資匱乏的年代。

And fast forward three decades,

快轉三十年，

China has turned into a country of abundance,

中國變成了物資豐富的國家，

especially when it comes to technological power.

特別是在科技實力方面。

From high tech to business tech to everyday tech,

從高科技，到商業科技，

到日常科技，

there isn't anything you can't find, only things you can't imagine.

沒有什麼你無法找到的， 只有你無法想像的。

I can buy a can of Coke by scanning my face.

我只要靠臉孔掃描就能買一罐可樂。

A few years ago,

幾年前，我在飯店房間裡 打電話索取牙膏，

I called for toothpaste from my hotel room,

and it was delivered to me by a robot.

竟然是由一個機器人送來。

I've seen people live in remote Tibetan mountains blast off cool music

我見過住在偏遠西藏山區的人

用太陽能電池的隨身聽 來播放酷炫的音樂，

with Walkmans powered by solar cells

and Chinese solar technology light up homes for African kids

也見過中國的太陽能科技 點亮了非洲孩子的家，

who used to study by candlelight, just like me when I was growing up.

他們以前要靠燭光來讀書， 就像我小時候那樣。

So this striking swell of innovation happened

這驚人的創新浪潮是真的發生了，

even though China remains a developing country,

雖然中國仍然是個開發中國家，

with just a little more than 10,000 dollars of per capita GDP.

人均 GDP 只略高於一萬美金。

So today I want to offer you a different lens to look through,

今天，我要提供大家 一個不同的視角，

one that shows a unique model that has fostered innovation

這個視角能呈現出獨特的模型，

促成創新和科技成長的模型。

and technological growth.

Now the system is far from perfect.

這個系統離完美還很遠。

And like you, I worry about the rising tensions of a tech race and beyond.

我也和大家一樣擔心科技競賽 及其他方面日益加劇的緊張局勢。

But I also believe that, as in any relationship,

但我也相信，如同在任何關係中，

a better understanding of each other

更佳了解彼此

is going to help us more likely to find common goals to work on

能協助我們更有可能 找到共同努力的目標，

rather than a downward spiral that harms all.

而不是會傷害所有人的向下螺旋。

So I'm an economist,

我實際上是個跨越 多個世界的經濟學家。

straddling multiple worlds, as it turns out.

One foot in London, where I do my research.

一隻腳在倫敦，我在那裡做研究。

And one foot in China,

另一隻腳在中國，我在那裡

where I spend time with my family and also do a bit of work.

和家人共度時光，也做一些工作。

And if I had a third foot,

如果我有第三隻腳的話，

it would be in the US, where I was educated.

就是在美國，我在那裡受教育。

So I can totally see why there's so much misunderstanding

所以我完全可以懂 為什麼有這麼多對於

and incomprehension about this megacountry

這個突破傳統智慧的 超級國家的誤解和不理解。

that has defied conventional wisdom.

So let's start out with how China's innovating.

咱們就從中國如何創新談起。

Now, innovation isn't just about inventing the next new thing,

創新的重點不只是去發明 下一個新東西，比如

like the iPhone or 3D printing or sending people to Mars.

iPhone、3D 列印， 或把人送上火星，

Technologies that go from zero to one.

這些是從零到一的科技。

It could be new applications, business models,

也有可能是新的應用、 新的商業模型，

better processes that lower costs.

改善流程讓成本降低。

These one-to-n innovations are just as important.

這些從一到 N 的創新 也同等重要。

Whatever makes us leaner, cleaner and more productive,

只要能讓我們更精簡、更乾淨、

更有生產力的，通通都算。

all count.

So TikTok might not be the first short-video app,

抖音可能不是第一個短影片 app，

but it has garnered more than a billion users around the world.

但它在全球吸引了超過十億個用戶。

The Chinese EV company, BYD, didn't make the first prototype.

中國的電動車公司比亞迪

並非做出第一個原型的公司。

But compared to Tesla's price point,

但和特斯拉的價格相比，

the 15,000-dollars EV cabs that I've taken

我搭乘過這種售價 一萬五千美金的電動計程車

with half a million kilometers of range

續航五十萬公里的里程，

can meaningfully lead to lower emissions and mass adoption.

它們可以有效減少排放 並推動大眾採用。

And in the same way,

同樣的，

中國的手機可能沒有 像 iPhone 那麼具革命性，

Chinese mobile phones might not be as revolutionary as iPhone,

but in African countries, their market share is well over half.

但在非洲國家， 它們的市佔率超過一半。

So this actually solves one big problem for developing countries,

這實際上能解決開發中國家 所面臨的一個大問題：

which is the lack of access to suitable technologies that they can actually use.

沒辦法取得它們真正 可以使用的適當科技。

And even if China doesn't do many zero-to-one technologies yet --

就算中國還沒做出許多 從零到一的科技——

at least not yet --

至少目前還沒——

it doesn't mean that it can't master high tech, right?

並不表示中國不能 精通高科技，對吧？

It conducted the first quantum video call,

最早的量子視訊通話是中國做的，

and it launched the first drone that can carry a passenger in air.

中國也發射了第一架 能載乘客的無人機。

So let's go behind the scenes.

咱們到幕後看看。

Now, yes, many of you would say China's got money, markets, talent

是的，很多人可能會說中國擁有

金錢、市場、人才，

and troves of data, which is so critical in this information age.

和大量的資料，這點 在這個資訊時代相當重要。

But it wasn't just that.

但不僅如此而已。

Part of the success was also a "whole nation" approach,

成功的部分原因來自於 「整個國家」的方法，

or what they call a "juguo" system.

或者是他們所謂的「舉國」系統。

So turning an idea or scientific discovery into commercial success

若要將想法或科學新發現變成

商業上的成功，

requires an innovation ecosystem.

就需要一個創新生態系統。

The collaboration of universities, national labs and industries,

大學、國家實驗室、產業的合作，

not to mention enormous amount of funding

更不用說要有大量的資金，

that covers long and uncertain investment cycles.

來因應漫長且不確定的投資週期。

Now, many of you might think

許多人可能認為開創性的科技 是明星創造出來的產品，

that groundbreaking technologies are the products of stars,

the likes of Steve Jobs or Elon Musks.

如史帝夫‧賈伯斯或伊隆‧馬斯克。

But every time you use the internet,

但每當你使用網際網路，

the GPS or yell at your Alexa,

使用 GPS，或對 Alexa 大喊時，

you have the US government to thank for.

都要感謝美國政府。

We often forget that the Apollo program, the Manhattan Project,

我們通常忘了阿波羅計畫、

曼哈頓計畫、

甚至日本崛起成為半導體新星，

even Japan's rise to semiconductor stardom,

were all horizontal systems with critical state backing.

都是橫向的系統，

背後有重要的國家支持。

Now, China's "juguo" system is an entire nation

中國的「舉國」系統

是整個國家支持一個策略目標。

behind one strategic goal.

Mobilizing national resources, casting the net wide,

動員國家資源、 廣泛展開行動、不計成本。

not tallying costs.

And it’s the same system that’s used to reap

這個系統也被用來 盡可能贏得奧運金牌。

as many Olympic gold medals as possible.

And so thanks to this ecosystem,

因為這個生態系統，

China became the largest consumer and producers of EVs

中國變成了電動車最大的 消費者以及製造者，

in less than a decade.

只花了不到十年。

With more cars sold there

2020年，中國賣出的電動車數量 超過了全球其他地方的總和。

than in the rest of the world combined in 2020.

Now in the West,

在西方，

we often talk about "nudging" consumers to make better choices.

我們常常在談要「引導」 消費者做出更好的選擇。

But in China, mass adoption of next-gen transportation happened like that.

但在中國，大量採用 次世代交通就這樣發生了。

Well, in part thanks to the state rolling out four million charging stations

有部分要歸功於 國家在全國各地設置了

around the country,

四百萬個充電站，

協調了從電池廠商到控制系統 到製造商的供應鏈。

coordinating supply chains from battery makers to control systems

and manufacturers.

Today, there are 140,000 chargers in the US in the entire country.

現今，

美國全國的充電站數目是十四萬個。

So that is kind of, the "whole nation" approach.

那就是「整個國家」的方法。

But that's not actually the story I want to tell you.

但那其實並不是 我想要告訴各位的故事。

There's an even more nuanced story that happens on the ground.

還有個更微妙的故事 發生在現實生活中。

We call it the “mayor economy,”

我們稱之為「市長經濟」，

and it's a decentralized economic model

它是種分散式的經濟模型，

that galvanizes creativity from the ground up.

從基層激發出創造力。

And contrary to popular perception,

和一般的觀點相反，它並不是

it isn't a centralized approach dominated by an almighty state.

一種由全能國家主導的集中式方法。

And so here's how it works.

它的運作方式如下：

So Nio is one of the top three EV companies in China.

蔚來汽車是中國排名 前三的電動車公司。

Its cars are driven everywhere on the streets of Beijing and Shanghai.

北京和上海的路上 到處可見蔚來的車。

Now, two years after it was listed on Nasdaq in 2018,

2018 年在納斯達克上市，兩年後，

it was on the verge of bankruptcy.

它瀕臨破產。

Now, at this point,

此時，

the local government of Hefei,

合肥當地的政府，

a small town in eastern China with five million people,

合肥是中國東部的 小鎮，人口五百萬，

convinced it to move its headquarters there.

當地政府說服蔚來汽車 把總部搬到那裡。

The local government injected a billion dollars

當地政府投入十億美金，

in exchange for a 25-percent stake,

交換 25% 的股份，

arranged more loans for the company

為該公司安排更多貸款，

and most importantly,

最重要的是，

organized an entire supply chain around Nio.

以蔚來汽車為中心， 組織了整個供應鏈。

It took only a year before Nio's production grew by 81 percent,

只花了一年，蔚來汽車的 生產就成長了 81%，

its market cap went from four to 100 billion dollars.

它的市值從四十億美金 成長到一千億美金。

合肥當地政府在一年內將投資變現，

And the local government of Hefei cashed out within a year,

and Nio's life was saved.

蔚來汽車也得救了。

And so for every local government behind a Nio,

對每個支持類似蔚來汽車 這種公司的當地政府，

there's another mayor behind a competitor.

也都有另一位市長支持競爭對手。

And there are literally hundreds of EV companies vying for survival

真的有數百家電動車公司

在這無情的競爭中努力求生存。

in ruthless competition.

So,

所以，

if you are actually a promising tech company,

如果你確實是一家 前景看好的科技公司，

local governments will move mountains to help.

當地政府會竭盡全力幫助你。

Remove red tape, check.

拿掉繁文縟節，沒問題。

Find you more financing, check.

幫你找更多資金，沒問題。

Get a job for your spouse, check.

幫你的配偶找份工作，沒問題。

Piece of cake.

不費吹灰之力。

They are a one-stop shop, as they like to call themselves.

它們喜歡自稱「一站式 商店」，什麼都有賣。

Now in the vigorous bid for Amazon's second headquarters,

在爭取亞馬遜第二間 總部的激烈競標中，

there were some creative offers.

出現了一些有創意的提案。

One state sent a giant cactus as a gift.

有一州送巨型仙人掌當作禮物。

Another state offered to rename a town Amazon.

還有一個州提出 將一個小鎮改名為亞馬遜。

But it basically came to some tax breaks,

但基本上最後還是考量稅的減免，

not quite like what the Chinese mayors had to offer.

不像是中國的市長提議的那些。

But of course,

但，當然，美國政府對於 支持大牌企業並不陌生，

the US government is no stranger to supporting big-shot companies

like SpaceX and Tesla, offering billions in benefits.

比如提供太空探索科技公司 和特斯拉數十億美金的利益。

But in China, it's really this marriage between hyper-charged local officials

但在中國，其實是 超有活力的當地官員結合

and intrepid entrepreneurs of all ilk

各種勇敢的企業家，

that is at the heart of its model.

這才是其模型的核心。

And here's why.

原因如下：

So the local government of Hefei,

和蔚來汽車一起 大賺一筆的合肥當地政府，

the one that made a killing with Nio,

well, it wasn't just after the return on investment, per se.

它並不只是要追求投資報酬本身。

But it was by luring companies like Nio

它透過吸引像蔚來汽車這樣的公司，

that it’s looking to create a mini Silicon Valley of sorts.

來建立某種迷你矽谷。

An industrial clutter, a talent pool,

一個產業集群，一個人才庫，

a flourishing retail and service industry

一個蓬勃發展的零售及服務產業，

that gets them more jobs, more tax revenues.

那就能帶來更多工作，更多稅收，

And guess what?

猜猜如何？就連它們擁有的 房地產和土地也突然更有價值了，

Even the real estate and land they own are suddenly worth more,

all because of the economics of agglomeration and multiplier effects,

全都是因為集聚效應 和乘數效應的經濟學原理，

because the local mayors are actually an equity stakeholder of the entire city.

因為當地的市長其實是

整個城市的股權持有者。

So in sum,

所以，總的來說，

it's this political centralization

這種政治的集中化

and economic decentralization

以及經濟的分散化

that is actually a simple representation of China's model.

正是中國的模型的簡單描述。

It's the same model used to urbanize, to grow and now to innovate.

同樣的模型曾經被用來做 都市化、促進成長，而現在

則用來創新。

Now, for all of its successes,

中國的所有成功背後

there were huge costs, I admit.

都有很高的代價，我承認。

Waste left in the wake,

事後留下的廢棄物、

inefficient investments, wrong bets.

沒效率的投資、下錯賭注。

Now, some of these challenges are being addressed, thankfully,

好在這些難題當中 有些已經被處理了，

比如環境退化，

like environmental degradation,

but there are others that remain in urgent need of fixing.

但還有其他難題仍然迫切需要解決。

So I'm not suggesting that there's some universal recipe

所以我並不是說這是個通用的秘方，

or that it's perfect

也沒說它是完美的，

or that it can be easily replicated.

或很容易就能複製。

But what we do know is that there's more than one way of making things work.

但我們能知道的是， 通到羅馬的大路不只一條。

And recognizing that there is some wisdom to China's approach

承認中國的方法確實有些智慧在其中

doesn't mean endorsing all of it.

並不意味著為整個方法背書。

But I guess there's something to learn from each other.

我認為有些彼此可以學習的地方。

And for one,

舉一個例子，

China didn't sit on the tarmac waiting for a technological takeoff.

中國並沒有坐在停機坪上 等著科技起飛。

Instead, it was the big push from the ground up.

反之，是靠由下而上的大力推動。

So I came to the US as an exchange student in 1997,

1997 年我以交換學生的 身分來到美國，

and I was mesmerized.

我深深地著迷了。

I saw enormous possibility between the East and the West,

我看到東方和西方 之間的巨大可能性，

as they competed, collaborated and spurred each other forward.

雙方競爭、合作， 和推促彼此向前邁進。

I still believe in this,

我仍然抱持這個信念，

even though frost has set in

雖然霜已經降下，

and there may be chill in the air for some time

世界上最大的兩個經濟體 之間可能出現了寒意。

between the two largest economies in the world.

Some may fear China's juggernaut innovation.

有些人可能會懼怕 中國的強大創新力。

Some may not like competition, which is rarely comfortable.

有些人可能不喜歡競爭， 競爭通常是不舒服的。

But having someone in your rearview mirror

但若有人在你的 後視鏡中（跟隨在後），

helps you keep up the pace.

能協助你保持步調。

Japan's technological rise in the 1980s

日本的科技在 1980 年代起飛，

pushed the US to overhaul its innovation system

推促美國改革其創新系統，

and regain the lead in the 1990s.

在 1990 年代重新取得領先地位。

The US subsequently did the same for Japan,

接著美國也同樣推促了日本，因此，

and as a result, we all have cheaper and better products.

我們都有了更便宜、更好的產品。

Today, Chinese EV company BYD is pushing Tesla to new heights and vice versa.

現今，

中國的電動車公司比亞迪 將特斯拉推上了新的高度，

反之亦然。

Tesla opted for a Chinese battery maker,

特斯拉選擇了一家 中國的電池製造商，

which is pushing the German government to do more in that space.

促使德國政府在該領域做更多努力。

And it's that mutual learning

這種相互學習及不斷 感到會被超越的威脅

and constant threat of being overtaken

that pushes the technology frontier further and beyond.

讓科技能不斷發展和突破。

But one thing's for sure, true,

但有一點是可以肯定的，

it just doesn't happen in geographical isolation.

在地理孤立的情況下 這是不會發生的。

So ...

所以……

I’ve come here, and I imagine the possibilities

我來到這裡，

想像著兩個國家之間的可能性，

between the two countries,

and I understand that there are national security concerns

我能了解

國家必須要尊重國安上的考量。

that countries will have to respect.

But not everything is about national security.

但國安並非一切。

The trillion dollars or more at stake with the economic disengagement

兩個最大國家之間的

經濟脫鉤所涉及的至少上兆美金，

between the two largest countries

can do so much as eradicate malaria, end world hunger,

可以做好多事，比如

根除瘧疾、終止世界饑荒、

conserve biodiversity and more.

保存生物多樣性，以及更多。

So let's not forget that there are more sacred things in life.

咱們不要忘記在人生中 還有更神聖的事情，

Such as a brighter future for our children and a cleaner Earth.

比如給予我們的孩子更明亮的未來

以及讓地球更乾淨。

Let's not forget that in the developing world,

咱們也不要忘記，在開發中世界，

there's still so much unnecessary misery.

還有好多不必要的苦難。

And that its people also have the right to enjoy the dignity in life

那些國家的人民

也有權享受人生的尊嚴，

as those who are more fortunate.

而不是比較幸運的人才能有。

And so for all of this to happen,

要實現這一切，

it seems to me

在我看來，

that what we ultimately need is the cheapest and best technologies,

我們最終需要的

是最便宜且最棒的科技，

rather than worry about where they come from

而不是去擔心它們是誰創造的

or who will dominate.

或誰會來主導。

Thank you.

謝謝。

(Applause)

（掌聲）