John Doerr and Ryan Panchadsaram: An action plan for solving the climate crisis | TED Countdown

翻译人员: Frank Wang 校对人员: Helen Chang

Lindsay Levin: Good to see you both.

琳赛·列文（Lindsay Levin）： 你们好。

So the book is called "Speed and Scale."

这本书的标题是《速度与规模》 （Speed and Scale）

But I want to focus on the subtitle.

但我关注的是书的副标题。

The subtitle being -- where have I gone with this? --

它的副标题是——跑哪去了………

"An action plan to solve our climate crisis now."

是 “即刻应对气候危机的行动方案”。

What's the plan, John?

行动方案是什么，约翰？

John Doerr: The plan is to transform society.

约翰·杜尔（John Doerr）： 我们的方案，是社会转型。

LL: And what do you mean by that, transform society?

琳赛：“社会转型” 是什么意思呢？

(Laughter)

（笑声）

JD: I thought you might ask that.

约翰：我知道你会这么问。

There are six big objectives.

社会转型包括六大目标。

We’re going to electrify transportation,

第一是交通电气化，

which means stop using diesel and gas for our vehicles.

意味着舍弃那些 柴油和汽油驱动的汽车。

We're going to decarbonize the grid with wind and solar and nuclear.

第二是电网脱碳化， 利用风能、太阳能和核能发电。

Third, we're going to fix our food systems.

第三，要改善膳食体系，

And that includes eating less meat and dairy.

包括减少肉类和乳制品摄入，

Reducing food waste

减少食物浪费，

and improving our soil health.

使土壤更加健康。

Fourth, we're going to protect nature.

第四，要保护自然，

That's stopping deforestation.

停止砍伐森林，

Protecting our oceans,

保护海洋生态，

protecting our peatlands, our grasslands.

保护泥煤地以及绿地。

Fifth, we're going to clean up our materials,

第五，要生产清洁材料，

how we make things like cement and steel.

改良水泥和钢铁的生产方式。

And then sixth,

然后第六，

we're going to have to figure out ways to remove the carbon that remains.

我们要探索方法， 去除大气中剩余的碳，

That stubborn, residual effects of emissions that cannot be eliminated.

那些顽固难除的碳排放残留。

Every one of these six things is a major challenge.

这六大目标的每一个都是重大挑战。

We've got to attack them all at once.

我们要一举拿下这六大目标。

LL: And how do we do that on time, Ryan?

琳赛：那怎样如期实现目标呢，瑞恩？

How are we going to get this done?

我们要如何实现这些目标？

Ryan Panchadsaram: So we've got to attack them all at once,

瑞恩·潘查萨兰（Ryan Panchadsaram）： 我们要一举完成这些目标，必须迅速。

but we've got to move quickly.

有四大因素能够加快这一进程，

And so the plan has four accelerants.

这四大因素就像操纵杆， 我们要均衡地拉动它们。

Think of these as the levers that we can pull on equally.

We've got to win the politics and policy,

我们要在政治和政策方面取胜，

so the commitments that are being made actually have follow through.

确保各方切实履行承诺。

And then we've got to turn movements into real action,

然后，我们要化运动为行动，

at the ballot box

促使民众和企业

as well as in the corporate boardrooms.

用选票和决策做出行动。

And then we've got to innovate.

然后就要推动创新，

Innovate to drive down the cost of clean technologies,

通过创新方式使清洁技术成本下降。

and then we have to invest.

再然后是加大投资，

We have to invest in research, in deployment, in philanthropy.

加大科研领域、资源部署领域 和慈善领域的投资。

We do all those things, Lindsay, we get to move faster.

这些就是我们在做的事，琳赛。 但我们还需要加速。

琳赛：这些就是你们的计划， 但和别人的有什么不同？

LL: So that's the plan in a nutshell, but what makes it different?

JD: What's different about the Speed and Scale plan

约翰：不同之处就在于，

is it's based on objectives and key results.

我们的方案是基于 目标和关键结果之上的，

Or OKRs.

即 OKR。

If you're not familiar with them,

如果大家不知道什么是 OKR ——

what OKRs are is a proven system to set goals for success

OKR 是建立目标的一种方法， 其有效性已受到实践证明，

that's been used by large and small organizations alike.

各种规模的组织都已采用这套方法。

And the benefit of using them is they help you focus,

OKR 的好处就是 助你保持专注、

get alignment, commitment

看齐时代、担起责任，

and track your progress over time so that we get everything done.

并时刻看到自身进步， 从而实现目标。

Objectives are what you want to have accomplished;

所谓目标，就是你想达成的事情；

key results are how I get that done in time.

所谓关键结果， 就是你如期达成它们的方式。

Really good key results are concrete and measurable.

优秀的关键结果 是具体、可衡量的，

And so they're what turn a set of goals into a real action plan.

也是把目标转化为 真正行动方案的力量。

LL: Can you give us an example, Ryan?

琳赛：可以举个例子吗，瑞恩？

RP: Yeah, of course.

瑞恩：好的，没问题。

So let's pick on that first objective,

我们看看第一个目标，

to electrify transportation, which cuts six gigatons.

以交通电气化 减少六千兆吨的排放。

So every set of these objectives have a handful of key results.

每一个目标都包含若干关键结果。

And so for this first one, there are six.

比如，第一个目标就包含 六项关键结果。

An example of one is the price of electric vehicles

其中一项就是，电动车的价格

have to be cheaper

必须在 2024 前

than the fossil-fuel equivalent by 2024.

低于汽柴油车辆的价格。

Or another one, by 2025,

另一项是在 2025 前，

all new buses have to be electric, all the new purchased ones.

所有新购置的公交车 全部电气化的目标。

And so these key results tell us if we're making progress

有了这些关键结果， 我们就能了解自己有没有进步，

and if we're getting there on time.

能不能如期实现目标。

And so if electric cars are still expensive

假如到了 2025 年， 电动车还很贵，

or we're still seeing diesel buses sold after 2025,

或者还能买到柴油公交车，

we know we're off track and we have to course correct.

那么我们就走错路了， 要赶快回归正轨。

LL: So what I hear you saying is that we need to be accountable,

琳赛：你刚才说我们要负起责任，

we need to be super ambitious,

要树立远大的志向，

we need to be very practical because of the scale of change needed.

还要契合实际， 符合转型的实际需要。

Now, John, you have helped grow some of the most successful companies

约翰，你们曾与世界级成功企业合作，

in the world.

帮助它们成长。

And when I think about the conversations that go on in boardrooms,

一想到你们和公司高管的谈判，

I can't help but think

我就会想到，

that some of the leaders there will be frankly daunted,

有些公司高管可能会目瞪口呆、

maybe aghast, even horrified

大吃一惊，甚至受到惊吓。

at the scale and speed and breadth and depth

毕竟你们要的 规模和速度、深度和广度

of the transformation that you're talking about.

听上去相当巨大。

What is your message to your business peers?

你们对商界同仁有什么想说的？

JD: My message to them is simple.

约翰：我想说的很简单：

It's that climate change has been underhyped,

对气候变化的宣传力度还不够、

underhyped.

还不够。

We are underestimating

我们正在低估

the economic opportunity

气候变化带来的

and the risk in this transition.

经济发展机遇与风险。

The human cost,

忽略机遇，

the economic toll that can come if we don't seize this opportunity,

会造成经济和人力的巨大损失。

which could create 25 million jobs, new jobs,

把握机遇，则可以创造 2500 万新的工作岗位——

in the next decade alone --

只需要 10 年就可以——

or wreck our communities.

否则后果是毁灭性的。

I want to ask you, friends,

朋友们，我想问问大家，

how much more damage do we have to endure

到底还要忍受多少破坏

before we realize that it's cheaper to save this planet than to ruin it?

才能让大家意识到， 保护地球的代价 比破坏地球的后果更低？

(Applause)

（掌声）

LL: One of the things that people often say about climate change

琳赛：谈到气候变化，人们往往会说

is that we already have all of the solutions that we need,

我们已经有了所需的一切解决方案，

and the real issue is that we’ve just got to get on and implement them.

而真正问题在于怎样将方案付诸实践。

And I believe and I read in the book

但我读到瑞恩在书中说，

that you're saying that's not enough, Ryan,

仅仅是那样子还不够。

talk to us about that.

瑞恩，说说看你的观点。

Why do we need something more than what we already have?

为什么已有的还不够，还需要更多？

RP: I think of it as a “yes, and,” right?

瑞恩：我不是否定他们， 但我想补充一点。

We have 85 percent of the solutions that we need.

我们已经有了 85% 的解决方案。

Record lows of solar and wind prices means deployments around the world,

风能和太阳能价格创下新低， 意味着可在世界范围部署这些能源；

the dropping cost of lithium-ion batteries means we're seeing more electric vehicles.

锂离子电池价格下滑， 意味着电动车产量上升。

But those solutions alone won't get us to net-zero.

但是“净零排放” 的目标 依然远得很。

And so we're going to have to both deploy and invest in the now

所以，我们既要部署资源、投资当下，

as well as invent the new.

也要投资未来。

So we need the now and the new,

我们既需要现在，也需要未来，

we need to scale up what we have as well as invest in the future.

既要扩大现有规模，也要投资未来。

And there are two pretty tangible examples, right,

这里有两个实实在在的例子。

when you think of solar and wind as it gets deployed,

想一下，太阳能和风能越来越广泛，

you can't turn that on and off when you need it, right?

但太阳和风是没有开关 来调节的，对吧？

So a grid needs to find a way to fill its gaps.

要调节太阳和风，就需要造电网。

Hence, next-level battery technologies or even safer nuclear.

要么是下一代电池技术， 要么是安全核能，

One of those could fill the gaps.

总有一款能够调节太阳和风。

Or think about how much we fly.

再想一下我们乘过多少架飞机。

Carbon-neutral fuels need to be developed,

我们需要开发碳中和燃料，

and the cost needs to be driven down.

需要降低这种燃料的成本。

The goal of all of this at the end of the day

说到底，这一切的目标都只有一个，

is to try to take these green premiums,

就是争取绿色溢价。

and if they can become green discounts we’ll see this technology everywhere.

绿色资源如果能够降价， 便能遍布世界。

LL: One of the things in the book is carbon removals,

琳赛：你们的这本书里还提到，

which you believe is imperative to solving this problem.

“除碳” 是解决问题的必由之路。

And when people think about carbon removals,

可一提到 “除碳” 这个词，

they get understandably suspicious.

人们就会产生合理的怀疑，

Because historically, it's been an excuse for inaction.

因为历史上，这曾是不作为的借口。

We can continue polluting, and we’ll clean up later.

污染可以继续，清理稍后再做。

You're telling us in your view

但是你们认为，

that carbon removals are an imperative piece of the plan.

除碳是实现计划的必要条件。

Can you describe why and what you mean by that?

这是为什么，又意味着什么呢？

RP: Of course. I mean, people should be suspicious.

瑞恩：当然，人们的怀疑不无道理。

Carbon removal needs to be the last piece.

除碳的确是最后一招。

So as an organization, if you're trying to get to net-zero,

一个组织如果要实现 “净零排放” 的目标，

the first thing you have to do is cut, right?

第一件事就是做减法，对不对？

Pick the alternative, pick the electric alternative.

寻找替代能源， 寻找替代的发电能源。

Then you’ve got to be more efficient.

做完减法之后就要提高效率。

So you've got to cut, become more efficient,

做了减法、提高了效率，

and then Lindsay, then people can rely on carbon removal.

然后就像琳赛说的那样， 要依靠除碳进程。

But when you look at all the models from IPCC or even our rough modeling,

可是，IPCC 的数据模型， 甚至是我们的初步数据都显示，

you're still going to have 10 gigatons left over.

减排目标还差一万兆吨。

And so we've got to invest in carbon-removal technologies

所以，我们要投资除碳技术，

that are both nature-based as well as engineered,

既要自然技术，也要人工技术，

because we're going to need it in the future.

因为我们未来迟早会用到。

LL: Climate justice.

琳赛：气候正义。

Let's talk about climate justice.

我们来谈谈气候正义。

It's a big theme in the book.

气候正义是书中一大重点。

John, you are an affluent white American,

约翰，你是个有钱的白种美国人，

white male American.

白种美国男人。

Yay, exactly.

对的，没错。

Any more of those in the room? Yeah.

这里还有跟他一样的吗？好的。

Tell us, from your viewpoint,

请告诉我们，在你看来，

how do you think about this question of climate justice?

你怎么看待气候正义这一议题？

JD: You know, when you think about it,

约翰：气候正义这个议题 需要我们仔细思考。

climate justice,

climate change, amplifies inequities.

气候变化，加剧不平等现象。

Those who suffer the most

那些生活最苦、最难的人 造成的气候问题是最少的。

have done the least to cause this problem.

(Applause)

（掌声）

And what that means is that the US,

这意味着，

美国作为世界上、历史上 排放最多的国家，

as the world's historic biggest emitter,

must decarbonize first.

必须率先脱碳。

We've got to do that for two reasons.

有两个原因迫使我们必须做到：

To show the world that it's possible.

因为要证明改变成功的可能性，

And to drive the cost down for everyone else.

因为要减少其他人面临的代价。

More broadly,

放眼全球，

the US, Europe and China

美国、欧洲和中国

have to step forward and fund the transition --

需要迈出步伐、推动转型、排除万难，

all of the costs -- for a transition to a new clean economy.

努力实现新的清洁经济发展。

Third, as we stop using fossil fuels,

第三，由于化石燃料退出使用，

some of our communities,

一部分人群……

their livelihoods are going to be left behind.

他们的生计会受到影响，

Those jobs are going to evaporate.

他们的工作不存在了。

And so we've got to guarantee that the good-paying jobs

因此我们要确保这部分人

of the new clean economy are available to them.

能够在新的清洁经济之下 找到体面工作。

LL: I want to finish by asking you about leadership.

琳赛：最后一个问题和领导者有关。

So you say that the book is written for the leader inside us?

你们说这本书是为了领导者而写的？

What's your call to action?

你们想呼吁什么呢？

We have leaders sitting in the room,

今天在座的也有领导者，

we have leaders listening.

他们也在听。

What's the message to leaders?

你们对领导者有什么想说的？

JD: Well, first, let's be clear,

约翰：首先，有一点要讲清楚，

individual actions are needed and expected.

个人的行动是需要的， 也是我们的期盼。

But they are not going to get us where we need to go

但在这个具有决定性的时代，

in this, the decisive decade,

只靠个人是不够的。

when we have to cut emissions in half by 2030.

我们需要在 2030 年前将排放减半，

Only concerted global action is going to get this job done.

只有全球共同行动才能实现目标。

And so we need each of us

所以我们每一个人，

to mobilize others into action.

都需要动员其他人行动。

That's what I mean by the inner leader inside each of us.

所以我们说每个人都能成为领导者。

And we can be inspired by the actions and the stories in this book.

书中记载的行动与故事 能够鼓舞我们前进。

Like parents and teachers in Maryland

书中讲到美国马里兰州家校合作 将所有校车转换为电动车的故事。

who switch all the school buses to be electric.

Like workers who are demanding that their organizations,

书中讲述了一些工人的故事，

这些工人要求组织、企业和雇主

their companies and employers

both commit and then meet the net-zero commitments.

切实行动，实现零排放承诺。

Or the protesters

书中还提到

who today are opposed to this Campbell offshore oil development.

示威者抗议 Campbell 离岸石油开采的故事。

Audience: Yes!

观众：好！

(Applause)

（掌声）

JD: In my experience and in this plan,

约翰：在我的记忆里、在这份计划里，

when people strive for extraordinary things --

如果人们为不平凡的事情奋斗，

and not just strive, but plan to get there --

如果人们在奋斗的同时还做足规划，

the results can surpass all expectations.

那么结果将出乎所有人意料。

I want to tell you, friends,

朋友们，我想告诉大家，

we've got to pull together, we've got to act together,

我们要一起努力， 我们要一起行动，

we’ve got to act now.

而且要马上行动，

Because we are fast running out of time.

因为时间很快就会耗尽。

LL: Ryan, a final thought for leaders of your generation.

琳赛：瑞恩，我们最后谈谈 你这一代的领导者。

When you think about your peers,

想一想你的同龄人，

are people ready,

他们有没有准备好……

are you seeing a shift in terms of people's capacity and willingness

他们现在是否具备 足够的能力、足够的意愿

to step up and create this different future?

来采取行动，创造不同未来？

RP: Absolutely, absolutely.

瑞恩：那是肯定的。

I think this is, like, a time

我觉得现在正是时候

for intergenerational teaming up on these things.

跨越年代的界限， 大家一起努力。

I think one of the things

我觉得我们通过研究

that in doing the research for the book we found is

得出了一个重要的结论，

the leverage points don't take millions of people.

即形势的改变不需要好多好多人。

The leverage points just take five or 10 people coming together

有些时候，其实只需要 五六个人聚到一起，

and saying, "This policy shouldn't happen,"

说：“你们这样搞是不对的”，

or, "This research needs to be done

或说：“我们需要再做些研究，

to show why we shouldn't go down this path,"

搞清楚为什么不能走这条路。”

or in the world that we both are in,

有时，比如在这个会场里，

just three people coming together to start a company.

只需要三个人聚到一起 就可以开一家公司了。

So I think our generation is jumping full into this, Lindsay.

所以我觉得我们这一代 是可以全情投入的。

We can't wait to work with --

我们很希望跟大家一起……

LL: Brilliant. We wish you --

琳赛：太好了，我们祝愿……

JD: Let's do this with speed and scale.

约翰：让我们拿出速度，创造规模。

LL: Speed and scale.

琳赛：速度与规模！

And we wish you the very best with the plan.

祝你们顺利完成计划。

Thank you, thank you.

谢谢。

(Applause)

（掌声）