The Tipping Points of Climate Change — and Where We Stand | Johan Rockström | TED

翻译人员: Lydia Guan 校对人员: Sabrina Wang

We Earth system scientists and climate scientists

身为地球系统的科学家 和气候科学家们，

are getting seriously nervous.

我们越来越紧张不安了。

The planet is changing faster than we have expected.

地球的变化速度比我们预期的要快。

We are, despite years of raising the alarm,

尽管警报已经发出许多年了，

now seeing that the planet is actually in a situation

但我们现在看到，地球实际上处于

where we underestimated risks.

风险被低估的境地。

Abrupt changes are occurring in a way

急促的变化正在发生，

that is way beyond the realistic expectations in science.

以一个远远超出科学界现实 能预期的形式。

Fifteen years back, I introduced the planetary boundary framework,

十五年前，我介绍了星球边界框架，

the scientific framework with the nine Earth system processes

这个科学框架包含了 九个地球系统过程，

that determines the stability, the resilience and the life support

它们决定了地球的稳定性、复原力、

on planet Earth.

和支撑生态的能力。

Ten years back, the world signed the Paris Climate Agreement.

十年前，全世界签署了 《巴黎协定》。

Almost five years back, we entered the decisive decade

差不多五年前， 我们进入了决定性的十年，

where our choices will determine the future

在此期间，我们的选择将决定

for all generations on planet Earth.

地球上世世代代的未来。

Where are we on this journey,

这十年已经过了一半，

halfway into this decade?

我们进度如何了？

I will give you a scientific state of the planet report,

我来给你一份地球状况的科学报告，

the most objective assessment that science can give today.

这是当今科学界 能给出的最客观的评估。

And it starts here.

报告由此展开：

We've reached 1.2 degree Celsius of global mean surface temperature rise,

全球平均地表温度 已经上升了 1.2 摄氏度，

the warmest temperature on Earth

这是过去10万年以来，

over the past 100,000 years.

地球上的最高温度。

We have just scratched on 1.5 degree Celsius

我们刚刚在2023年达到了 1.5摄氏度的，

as an annual mean in 2023.

年平均温度的增值。

But what worries us most is this:

但最令我们担忧的是这个：

we are starting to see an acceleration of warming

我们开始看到在过去的50年中，

over the past 50 years.

变暖正在加速。

0.18 degrees Celsius per decade from 1970 to 2010.

1970年至2010年期间， 每十年上升0.18摄氏度。

But then from 2014 onwards,

但是从2014年起，

it abruptly jumps up to 0.26 per decade.

它突然跃升至每十年 上升0.26摄氏度。

And if we follow this path,

如果照这样走下去，

we will crash through two degrees Celsius within 20 years

我们将在20年内打破2摄氏度，

and hit three degrees Celsius by the year 2100,

到2100年，则达到3摄氏度，

a disastrous outcome, caused by us humans.

一个由人类造成的，灾难性的结果。

But it's not only carbon dioxide.

但不仅仅是二氧化碳。

Any parameter that matters for human well-being and our economies

任何对人类福祉 和经济至关重要的参数，

look the same.

看起来都一样。

Here you have it, linear change up until the 1950s,

这就是20世纪50年代之前的 线性变化，

we go into the great acceleration.

我们进入了迅猛的加速期。

And this is what we're seeing across overconsumption of fresh water,

而这正是我们从过度消耗淡水、

the sixth mass extinction of species,

第六次物种大规模灭绝、

over-putrefying our freshwater systems with nitrogen and phosphorus,

以及淡水系统中过多的氮和磷 导致的腐化中所见的情况。

all of it undermining the stability of the planet.

所有这些都在破坏星球的稳定性。

As if this was not enough,

如果这还不够，

we are seeing that this is now causing impacts across the entire economy.

我们看一下它现在对整个经济 所造成的影响。

We're seeing bigger and bigger invoices

我们能看到越来越大的“罚单”，

being sent by the Earth system onto societies across the entire world,

从地球系统开出来，罚给向全社会，

in droughts, floods,

干旱、洪水、

heat waves, disease patterns,

热浪、疾病的模式、

human-reinforced storms,

人为导致的风暴，

scientifically attributed to human-caused climate change.

科学上把这些归因于 人为所致的气候变化。

Forty degrees Celsius of life-threatening heat

危及生命的40摄氏度高温，

across all continents, occurring in 2023.

在2023年，出现在了各个大洲。

Fifty-two degrees Celsius hitting the over 1,000

52摄氏度高温的打击让上千人，

who lost their lives at the Hajj pilgrimage

在6月的麦加朝圣之旅中，

in June in Mecca.

丧失了性命，

Three times higher climate change risks

气候变化的风险增加了三倍，

now attributed to our cause of climate change.

这是由我们导致的气候变化。

2023, up to 12,000 deaths,

在2023年，已造成多达1.2万人死亡，

200 billion US dollars of cost,

2000亿美元的损失，

just in the US, up to 100 billion US dollars.

仅在美国， 损失就高达1,000亿美元。

This is seriously causing economic costs.

这造成了严重的经济损失。

We have scientifically, in the past,

过去，我们科学地表明，

shown that this could cost a few percent of global GDP

全球GDP会有一定百分比的损失，

of the climate impacts caused by us.

是由我们导致的气候影响所带来的。

I can tell you that the latest scientific assessment

我可以告诉你最新的科学评估，

is what you see on the screen here.

你在这边屏幕上所看到的。

An 18-percent loss of GDP by 2050

到2050年，GDP的损失将达到18%，

if we now follow the current path.

如果我们沿着现在的道路走下去，

This is equivalent to 38 trillion US dollars of loss

到2050年，这相当于每年损失

per year in 2050.

38万亿美元，

It's starting to hurt.

反噬正在开始。

Both in human social costs and an economic cost.

是人类社会和经济两方面的损失，

And this is happening at 1.2 degrees Celsius

这是跟着全球平均地表温度 上升1.2摄氏度，

of global mean surface temperature rise.

同时发生的。

And we're following a pathway that takes us to 2.7 degrees Celsius

而我们正在走的道路， 会让温度上升值达到2.7摄氏度，

in only 70 years.

这仅仅需要70年。

And we've had a 10,000-year period where our civilizations have developed,

我们经历了一万年的文明发展，

where we've had an enormous privilege

在这段时间里，我们非常有幸的，

of a planet at 14 degrees Celsius,

拥有一个气温在14摄氏度的星球，

plus or minus 0.5 degrees Celsius.

在0.5摄氏度上下的浮动。

That's the Holocene since we left the last ice age.

那是我们自上一个冰河时代 以来的全新世。

And if you look three million years back,

如果你回顾三百万年前，

we never exceeded two degrees Celsius.

浮动值从未超过两摄氏度。

That's the warmest temperature on Earth during the entire Quaternary.

那是整个第四纪 地球上最温暖的温度。

The coldest point, minus five degrees Celsius, Ice Age.

最冷的节点，是零下5摄氏度， 冰河时代。

I call this the “corridor of life.”

我称之为 “生命走廊”。

Is it surprising that we scientists are getting really, really nervous?

还诧异科学家们为何万分紧张吗？

But it's more.

这还不止。

It's so much more than this.

远不止于此。

The first issue is buffering capacity.

第一个问题是缓冲能力。

The second is the risk of crossing tipping points,

第二个是跨越临界点的风险，

and both are moving in the wrong direction.

而且，两者都朝着错误的方向发展。

Buffering capacity is the Earth system's ability to dampen shocks and stress.

缓冲能力是地球系统 减缓冲击和压力的能力。

Like, for example, soaking up greenhouse gases

举个例子， 陆地和海洋的完整自然环境，

in intact nature on land and in the ocean.

可以吸收温室气体。

And so far, Mother Earth has been so forgiving.

到目前为止， 地球母亲一直非常宽容。

Here we have the evidence.

我们这里有证据。

What you see here is the hockey stick of fossil fuel burning in red

你看到的是化石燃料燃烧的 红色“曲棍球棒”曲线，

and deforestation in yellow.

和砍伐森林的黄色曲线。

Is it this tremendous climate forcing

是这种巨大的气候压力，

that has caused the 1.2-degree Celsius climate crisis so far?

导致了目前1.2摄氏度的气候危机吗？

The answer is no.

答案是否定的。

Fifty-three percent of the carbon dioxide

来自化石燃料燃烧，

from fossil fuel burning and land system change

和陆地系统变化的二氧化碳中，

has been soaked up

有53%被完好无损的

by intact nature on land and in the ocean.

It’s only the blue sliver you see here,

只有你这里看到的蓝银色部分，

which remains in the atmosphere, causing the climate crisis so far.

是停留在大气层中的二氧化碳， 导致了迄今为止的气候危机。

The problem is

问题是，

we have more and more scientific evidence of cracks in this system.

我们有越来越多的科学证据表明 这个系统出现了裂痕。

Let's start on land.

我们先说陆地。

Land absorbs 31 percent of the carbon dioxide

土地吸收了我们温室气体排放中，

from our greenhouse gas emissions.

31％ 的二氧化碳。

We have more and more scientific evidence across so much research

大量科学研究的证据表明，

that the boreal forest in Canada,

加拿大的北方森林，

or the temperate mixed forest in Germany and Russia

德国和俄罗斯的温带混交林，

are starting to lose their carbon uptake capacity.

已开始失去其碳吸收能力。

Did you know that the latest science shows

你知道吗，最新的科学表明，

that the part of the Amazon rain forest,

亚马逊雨林地区，

planet Earth's richest biome on terrestrial land,

地球陆地上最丰富的生物群落，

has already tipped over and is no longer a carbon sink?

已经转变了，不再是碳吸储库了吗？

It is today a carbon source.

如今，它成了碳源，

It's no longer helping us.

它不再帮我们了。

But as if that was not enough,

而雪上加霜的是，

what really worries us today is the ocean.

现在，海洋是真正让我们担心的。

The ocean absorbs 90 percent of the heat

海洋吸收了90％的热量

caused by human-induced climate change.

是人为导致的气候变暖所造成的 。

This is well understood,

这一点众所周知；

but what really worries us is what you see here.

而真正让我们担心的是，

This is the latest data on sea surface temperature across the ocean.

这是有关整个海面温度的最新数据。

What you see here is from 1980 until today,

你看到的是从1980年到现在，

how gradually the ocean surface just gets warmer and warmer.

海面逐渐变得越来越暖。

It's actually warming all the way down to 2,000 meters depth.

变暖一直延续到水下两千米。

This is well understood in science.

这一点也是众所周知。

It's a deep concern.

这是一个令人深感担忧的问题。

It's well represented in the climate models,

它在气候模型中被完好地体现出来，

we understand it.

我们明白的。

Then suddenly in 2023, something happens.

突然，在2023年，有些事情发生了。

Temperatures just go completely off the charts.

温度完全超出了预期。

0.4 degrees Celsius outside of the warmest temperature

在往年的最高温度上 又增长了0.4摄氏度。

in previous years.

What's happening?

发生了什么？

We admittedly must be honest here,

我们必须坦白承认，

we do not know.

我们不知道。

El Niño is certainly partly to blame but cannot explain it all.

厄尔尼诺现象当然是部分罪魁祸首， 但无法解释一切。

2024, it just continues.

2024年，这种情况仍在继续。

What is happening?

到底发生了什么？

We do not know.

我们不知道。

But the candidate number one

但是首要的候选原因是，

is the energy imbalance caused by us humans.

由人类造成的能量失衡。

In one year alone,

仅在一年内，

the heat equivalent to 300 times global electricity use

相当于全球用电量300倍的热量，

is absorbed in the Earth's system.

被地球系统吸收。

Is it what we see on the screen here,

我们在屏幕上看到的，

an ocean that is starting to lose resilience?

是一片开始失去韧性的海洋吗？

An ocean that is at risk of releasing heat to the atmosphere

一个可能将热量释放到大气中，

and self-amplifying warming?

并加剧变暖的海洋？

We do not know.

我们并不清楚。

But one thing is for certain, the ocean is sounding the alarm.

但有一点是肯定的， 海洋正在发出警报。

Reasons for concern, yes.

有理由要担心吗？要的。

We are now at a point where we are forced to ask

我们现在不得不叩问以下几个问题：

the following question:

Are we at risk of pushing the planet out of the basin of attraction,

我们是否面临着一个风险， 正在把地球推到吸引域以外，

the stability of the planet,

即地球的稳定状态之外？

where we’ve been since we left the last Ice Age,

也就是从上一个冰河时代以来，

the extraordinarily stable Holocene state?

一直处于极其稳定的全新世状态？

And if we pushed ourselves outside,

如果我们真的把自己推了出去，

drifting away unstoppably towards a hothouse Earth

那将势不可挡地飘向“温室地球”，

where we get self-amplified warming

在那里我们会自我加速变暖，

and losing life support on Earth.

同时失去地球维持生态的境地。

What could take us there?

是什么把我们带到那种境地？

Well, we know it.

这个，我们是知道的。

It is if we cross tipping points,

如果我们跨越临界点，

big systems like the Greenland ice sheet,

大系统像格陵兰岛冰盖、

the overturning of heat in the North Atlantic,

北大西洋的热量翻转环流、

the coral reef systems,

珊瑚礁系统、

the Amazon rainforest are tipping element systems.

和亚马逊雨林，都是临界要素系统。

Push them too far, and they will flip over from a desired state that helps us

推得太远， 它们将从帮助我们的理想状态，

to a state that will self-amplify in the wrong direction,

反转为朝错误的方向， 自我加剧的状态，

going from cooling and dampening to self-amplifying and warming.

从冷却和缓冲变成自我加剧和变暖。

A rainforest tips over to a Savannah state.

热带雨林转变为稀树草原状态。

Now we have now mapped the 16 tipping element systems,

我们已经绘出调节气候系统的 16个临界要素系统，

which are now scientifically cataloged, that regulate the climate system.

它们调节气候系统， 现已被正式编目。

These 16, and you see the five in the ground zero on planet Earth,

这16个临界要素， 以及你看到的位于地球零地的，

in the Arctic,

北极的五个地带，

are connected via cascades through the ocean,

通过海洋的分瀑连接在一起，

particularly via the AMOC,

特别是通过 AMOC，

the Atlantic overturning of heat in the ocean,

大西洋的热量翻转环流，

all the way down to Antarctica.

一直延伸到南极洲。

These are big biophysical systems that we all depend on,

这些是我们赖以生存的 大型生物物理系统，

global commons for the stability of the planet.

是维持地球稳定的全球公共资源。

The question is, at what temperatures are they at risk of tipping

问题是，在什么温度下， 他们会成为风险，

from helping us to becoming self-amplifying foes?

从帮助我们，到变为 自我加剧的敌对状态？

Well, for the first time,

好吧，这是第一次，

we have an attempt to answer that question.

我们尝试回答这个问题。

What you see here are the 16 tipping element systems on the y axis,

你在这里看到的是Y轴上的 16个临界要素系统，

and in red you see the uncertainty range,

在红色区域， 你可以看到不确定的范围，

the best estimates in science,

即科学界的最乐观估算，

darker the red, the higher the risk of tipping,

而红色越深，风险越高，

it's the temperature levels

这是温度水平，

at which they're likely to cross the threshold.

它们可能是跨越零界点的阈值。

The average temperature at which they are likely to tip

可能零界变化的平均温度，

is the yellow circle lines you see here.

是你所看到的黄色圆圈线。

What this tells us is the following.

这告诉我们接下来的内容。

Five of these 16 are likely to cross the tipping points

在这16个中， 已经有5个在1.5 摄氏度，

already at 1.5 degrees Celsius.

就可能跨越临界点，

The Greenland ice sheet, the West Antarctic ice sheet,

格陵兰岛冰盖、南极西部冰盖、

abrupt thawing of permafrost,

永久冻土的突然解冻、

losing all tropical coral reef systems

所有热带珊瑚礁系统的消失、

and collapse of the Barents Sea ice.

以及巴伦支海冰层的碎裂。

And just the two ice sheets

而且仅仅两个冰盖

hold ten-meter sea level rise,

就能使海平面上升10米，

which would be unstoppable on the long term.

而从长远来看，这已是不可逆转。

Now sure, there is scientific uncertainty here,

当然，这里存在科研的不确定性，

as you see from these graphs,

就像你从这些图表中看到的那样，

but there's one red thread in science for humanity in the scientific message.

但是在科研信息中， 有一条科学界画给人类的红线。

And it's this: the more we understand of the Earth's system,

这就是： 我们对地球系统的了解越多，

the higher is the risk.

风险越高。

And here is the proof.

这里有证据。

This is five IPCC assessments

这是五份IPCC的评估，

the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change,

由联合政府间气候变化专委会提供，

30 years of scientific advancements.

也是30年来的的科学进展。

Here again you see risk assessment,

在这里，你再次看到风险评估，

darker the red, higher the likelihood of causing irreversible change

红色越深，造成气候系统 不可逆转变化的可能性越高。

in the climate system.

Thirty years back, the risk was put at five degrees Celsius

30年前，风险设定为5摄氏度的

of tipping

临界变化，

and coming down to current state of science,

随着科学的发展，

the risk is set at 1.5 to two degrees Celsius.

风险已降目前的1.5至2摄氏度。

We are in the midst of a danger zone today.

此刻，我们置身于危险区之中。

But it can be even worse than that.

但情况可能比这还要糟糕。

Let's go to the Amazon basin, again,

让我们再来看看亚马逊盆地，

the richest terrestrial ecosystem on land,

陆地上最丰富的陆地生态系统，

climate science estimates the risk

气候科学估计，

of the Amazon rainforest tipping over irreversibly to a savanna

亚马逊雨林存在不可逆转的 变成稀树草原的风险，

at three to five degrees

在全球平均地表温度，

of global mean surface temperature rise.

上升3至5摄氏度时。

A really high temperature,

极度炎热，

unlikely even to be met over the next 70 years.

即使在未来70年内， 也不太可能达到。

But if we lose forest cover,

但是，如果我们失去森林覆盖率，

the risk is that the system can tip already at 1.5 to two degrees Celsius

风险就变成只要增幅1.5到2摄氏度 系统就会跨越零界点，

if we lose more than 20 to 25 percent of forest cover.

如果我们损失20％至25％以上 森林覆盖率的话，

So that's a very dangerous combination.

那将是一个非常危险的组合。

Where are we today?

我们今天在什么境地？

We are at 1.2 degrees Celsius of global mean surface temperature rise

我们身处全球平均地表温度 已上升1.2摄氏度，

and 17 percent of deforestation.

森林砍伐率为17％的境地。

We are very close to a tipping point in the Amazon rainforest.

我们非常接近亚马逊雨林的临界点。

Very close.

非常接近了。

What shall we do to avoid these unmanageable outcomes?

我们该如何避免 这些无法控制的后果呢？

Well, the IPCC is clear on the pathway.

IPCC已经指明了前进的道路。

To stay under 1.5 degrees Celsius,

为了将温度保持在1.5摄氏度以下，

to avoid crossing tipping points,

避免跨越临界点，

we need to operate, to navigate within the global carbon budget

我们需要采取行动， 在全球碳预算内运作，

that gives us a chance of holding 1.5.

这样我们才有机会保持1.5。

What remains for us is only 200 billion tons of carbon dioxide

我们只有2000亿吨二氧化碳，

that we can continue emitting

可以继续排放的量，

to have a 50 percent chance of holding 1.5.

这样才有50％的机会 保持1.5摄氏度。

We emit today 40 billion tons of carbon dioxide per year,

如今，我们每年排放 400亿吨的二氧化碳，

giving us five years at current rates of emission

按目前的排放率计算， 我们有五年时间，

before we've consumed the budget.

预计量会被消耗完毕。

We are seriously running out of time.

我们的时间所剩无几。

And the pathway for a safe landing is also well studied and understood.

而确保安全着陆的路径 也是经过研究而且清楚的。

You have it here.

你在这里能看到。

Bend the curve of emissions immediately

立即消减排放曲线，

and follow a path where we reduce emissions

走减少排放量的道路，

by at least seven percent per year for a safe landing

每年至少减少7％排放量 以实现安全着陆，

and a net zero world economy by 2050.

到2050年， 世界经济实现零排放。

But it's more than that.

但不止于此，

We also know that even if we succeed with this,

我们也知道，即使我们取得成功，

we have already loaded the atmosphere with so much greenhouse gases,

我们已经往大气层 输送如此多的温室气体，

with so much climate forcing,

造成巨大的气候压力，

that we inevitably face a period of overshoot.

不可避免地面临一个过冲时期。

We must now be prepared for a very likely breaching

现在，我们必须做好准备，

of the 1.5-degree-Celsius planetary boundary on climate

为极有可能突破1.5的边界，

somewhere between 2030 and 2035.

得要在2030年至2035年之间。

In five to 10 year's time.

在未来的5到10年时间里。

And then have, at best, a 30-40 year period of overshoot

之后，经过最多30到40年的过冲期，

before we can come back to 1.5 by the end of this century.

我们才能在本世纪末 恢复到1.5摄氏度。

We would exceed with 0.1 to 0.3 degrees Celsius

我们将会有0.1至0.3摄氏度，

the 1.5 limit,

超出1.5摄氏度的上限，

meaning up to 1.8 degrees Celsius.

这意味着最高可达1.8摄氏度。

What does this tell us?

这告诉我们什么呢？

Well, I can tell you there are two main messages.

我可以告诉你，有两个主要信息。

Message one:

第一个信息：

Buckle up.

“系好安全带”。

We know for certain, 100 percent certainty,

我们100%肯定地知道，

that this means more droughts, more floods,

这意味着更多的干旱、更多的洪水、

more heat waves, more human-reinforced storms,

更多的热浪、更多的人为风暴、

more disease during one generation's time.

更多的大流行病， 这是未来一代人都要经历的。

2023, the warmest year on record,

2023年是有记录以来最热的一年，

will be looked back upon as a mild year.

但将来回首时， 会觉得这是个温和的一年。

Message two.

第二个消息：

Why would the planet come back to 1.5 after overshoot?

为什么行星可以在过冲后 回落到 1.5 摄氏度的增长？

Well, the answer is very simple.

好吧，答案很简单。

The health of the planet must be kept intact.

地球的健康必须保持好。

We must continue having a planet

我们必须要保持一个，

that can absorb 50 percent of the carbon dioxide.

能够吸收50％二氧化碳的星球。

We must have a planet that crosses no tipping points.

我们必须拥有一个 不会跨越临界点的星球。

We must have a planet that remains healthy

我们必须拥有一个能把热量

and keeping heat intact in the ocean.

保持在海洋中的健康星球。

That is why we need planetary boundaries.

这就是为什么我们需要星球边界。

The planetary boundary framework

星球边界框架，

that defines the nine Earth system processes

定义了九个地球系统过程，

that regulates the stability and resilience of the entire planet:

用于调节整个星球稳定性和复原力:

climate, biodiversity, nitrogen, phosphorus, land, fresh water,

气候、生物多样性、氮、磷、 土地、淡水、

air pollutants and chemicals.

空气污染物和化学物质。

That is the challenge.

那是挑战。

To summarize that,

一句话总结下来，

there is no 1.5 degrees Celsius delivery

仅通过逐步淘汰化石燃料，

on the Paris Agreement by only phasing out fossil fuels.

无法实现《巴黎协定》里 1.5摄氏度的目标。

We also need to come back into the safe operating space

我们还需要恢复以自然为基础的，

of the nature-based biodiversity,

有生物多样性的安全运作空间，

all the planetary boundaries of nature.

即自然界的所有星球边界。

This means that science is clear.

这意味着科学解释得很清楚了。

The window is rapidly closing,

窗户正在迅速关闭，

but there is still some light in the window.

但依然有一丝光亮从窗缝透出。

We actually have evidence that we've reached a pivotal point,

实际上，我们有证据表明， 我们已经到了关键时刻，

not only in terms of risk,

不仅是风险，

but also in terms of opportunity to transform the world

也是世界转变的机遇，

towards a safe and just future for humanity.

成为全人类安全和公平的未来。

Linear change is no longer an option.

线性变化不再是可选项。

The only option is exponential change.

唯一可选择的是指数变化。

We know that the only currency that matters is speed and scale.

我们知道，唯一重要的衡量指标是 速度和规模。

We also need to become stewards of the entire planet.

我们还需要成为整个星球的管理者。

We need to now recognize, from local to global level,

我们现在需要认识到， 从地区到全球层面，

that we're all so intertwined that we must govern the entire planet.

我们唇亡齿寒， 只能共商共治整个星球。

I know, that is very daunting,

我知道，那非常艰巨，

but what choice do we have

但是，我们还有什么选择？

when on the line is the future of our children

正处于危险线上的是我们的后代，

on planet Earth?

在地球上的未来。

And we have the solutions.

而我们有解决方案。

We know that solving the planet crisis is not utopia.

我们知道解决地球危机不是乌托邦。

It's not fantasy.

不是幻想。

We have the solutions for a secure, stable future for humanity.

我们有解决方案， 实现人类安全稳定的未来。

What are those transformations?

什么需要痛改前非？

Well, we know them.

我们有答案。

It's a rapid transition away from fossil fuels.

向远离化石燃料快速转变。

It is a transition towards circular business models.

向循环商业模式转变。

It is transitioning towards healthy diets from sustainable food systems.

从可持续的粮食系统 向健康饮食的转变。

And it's not only halting loss of nature,

这不仅能阻止自然的流失，

it's also scaling the regeneration and restoration of marine systems, soils,

还能增幅自然的再生和恢复能力， 包括海洋系统、土壤、

forests and wetlands.

森林和湿地。

We have solutions for all of these.

我们有解决方案应对所有这些情况。

Just take green energy,

以绿色能源为例，

which today is cheaper than fossil fuel-based energy.

如今它们比化石燃料能源便宜多了。

It's our choice that we're facing today.

这是我们今天面临的抉择。

Now I was nervous already in 2020

我在2020年就很担忧了，

when we entered this decisive decade

那时我们进入了这个决定性的十年

and had to cut global emissions by half by 2030.

必须在2030年前 将全球排放量减少一半。

Halfway into this decade,

十年过了一半，

the road is steeper than ever.

这条路却比以往任何时候 都更加陡峭。

It's steeper than ever.

从未有过的陡峭。

This is what really, really concerns us.

这是我们非常、非常担忧的问题。

That we have a situation where we now need to move so fast.

我们需要极其迫切行动。

And I've been standing on stages like this so many times,

我已经站在类似这样的舞台上 很多次了，

sharing the dire scientific diagnostic.

不停分享严峻的科学诊断。

But still, I just told you

尽管如此，我依然想告诉你

that I do conclude that there is still some window open.

我确实得出结论，我们还赶得及。

There is a light in the tunnel.

就像是漆黑隧道里的一盏灯。

And you may ask, what is it that makes me able to continue

你可能会问， 是什么让我能在这种情况下

to be a realistic optimist in this situation?

仍然保持务实的乐观态度？

The most dire situation, I must admit, in my whole professional life.

我必须承认，这是我整个职业生涯中 遇到的最严峻的情况。

Well, actually, I promise this is an honest statement.

实际上，我保证我说的字字属实。

there are so many positive items as well.

还有很多积极的因素，

The most important one in my mind

在我看来，最重要的一点是，

is that we have ample evidence

我们有充足的证据表明，

that citizens across the world, a majority of them,

世界各地的大多数人们，

care about nature and climate.

都关心自然和气候。

They trust climate science,

他们相信气候科学，

they're concerned about climate change,

关注气候变化，

and they want solutions.

并希望找到解决方案。

And the second key factor

而第二个关键因素是，

is that we have so much evidence today

我们今天有如此大量证据表明，

that the solutions are not only available,

解决方案不仅可用，

but if we implement them,

而且如果我们实施的话，

we get a more healthy, stable,

我们将获得一个更健康、稳定、

secure future with the jobs and the economies

安全的未来，同时，就业和经济

that can compete and provide livelihoods into the future.

可以自由竞争并为未来提供生机。

This means, dear friends,

这意味着，亲爱的朋友们，

that solving the planetary crisis is not only necessary,

解决地球危机不仅是必要的，

it is possible,

而且是可行的，

and we all win if we succeed.

并且，如果我们成功， 所有人都是受益者。

Thank you very much.

非常感谢。

(Applause)

（掌声）