How to Stop the Next Pandemic? Stop Deforestation | Neil Vora | TED

翻译人员: Alvin Lee 校对人员: suya f.

I have a tendency to overshare when I first meet people.

我跟初次见面的人 会有过度分享的倾向。

So in keeping with that habit,

为了保持这个优良传统，

I wanted to share that I'm a medical oddity.

我想说，我是一名医学怪咖。

I'm a doctor who specializes in saving forests.

一名专业拯救森林的医生。

My journey has been unusual.

我的经历很不寻常。

And through it, I've learned how vital tropical forests are for our health.

在这过程中，我了解到热带雨林 对我们的健康有多么重要。

As soon as I finished my internal medicine training,

我一完成内科医生培训，

I traded in my scrubs for a hazmat suit.

就脱下白大褂，换上了防护服。

I joined the Epidemic Intelligence Service

我加入了疾病控制和预防中心的

at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention,

流行病情报局，

and for nine years,

在那里

I was a disease detective.

我做了 9 年传染病调查员。

I chased outbreaks around the world.

我追踪世界各地爆发的传染病。

I trekked through the jungle to research a bat hunting festival.

我徒步穿越丛林，研究蝙蝠狩猎节。

I even vaccinated raccoons from an airplane.

我甚至在飞机上给浣熊接种了疫苗。

On most days, it was my dream job.

在大多数日子里， 这是我梦寐以求的工作。

But there were others when what I saw was a nightmare.

但也有些日子， 对我而言如噩梦一般。

Like when I went to West and Central Africa

比如我去西非和中非

to help fight the two biggest Ebola epidemics ever.

抗击史上最大规模的 两次埃博拉疫情的时候。

I came back from both of those deployments

这两次旅程给我带来的

with the same feeling.

感受是一样的。

That our reactive approach to public health is inherently flawed.

我们对公共卫生事件的应急处理措施 天生就是有缺陷的。

我们专注于为疫情爆发做准备，

We focus on preparing for outbreaks

so that we can respond quickly,

以便我们能够快速做出反应，

but it's rarely that easy.

但事情并非如此简单。

Maybe a virus, like the one that causes COVID,

也许一种病毒， 例如引发新冠的病毒，

spreads between people before they know they're sick.

在人们意识到自己生病之前 就开始传播了。

Maybe people choose to not take a safe and effective vaccine.

也许人们选择不注射 安全有效的疫苗。

And before we know it,

不知不觉间，

the outbreak grows into an epidemic or even pandemic.

疫情爆发变成了流行病 甚至蔓延成全球大流行。

In other words, we act as if outbreaks are inevitable.

换句话说，我们表现得好像 疫情爆发是不可避免的。

If you ask me, this is medical negligence.

如果要我说， 这就是医疗系统的疏忽。

Preparing and responding are critical, no doubt,

提前准备和快速应对确实非常重要， 这点毫无疑问，

but alone, they're not enough.

但光靠这些是不够的。

This begs the question:

这就引出了一个问题：

What if we could also prevent outbreaks before they even begin?

假如我们能在疫情爆发前 就阻止它，会怎么样呢？

Well, there's good news.

其实，好消息还是有的。

We can.

我们可以做到。

And how we do so may surprise you.

如何做到可能会让你们惊讶。

Some researchers believe the West African Ebola epidemic

一些研究人员认为， 西非埃博拉疫情流行

began with an axe.

始于一把斧头。

Communities in rural Guinea, for their survival,

几内亚农村社区为了生存，

had no choice but to clear forests for farms.

别无选择，只能砍伐森林开垦农田。

Then, in 2013,

然后，在 2013 年，

an 18-month-old boy died of Ebola.

一个 18 个月大的男孩 死于感染埃博拉病毒。

He is believed to have caught the virus from bats

据信他是从蝙蝠身上感染的病毒，

that lived in a hollow tree where he played.

那些蝙蝠生活在 他经常玩耍的一个树洞里。

Put another way,

换句话说，

the virus likely spilled over from bats into this boy,

病毒很可能从蝙蝠身上 来到这个男孩身上，

making him patient zero.

使他成为“零号病人”。

From there, Ebola spread,

埃博拉从那里开始蔓延，

killing more than 11,000 people in West Africa.

在西非造成 超过 11000 人死亡。

Ebola's animal origins, however, aren't unique.

但是，埃博拉病毒来源于动物， 这并不是个例。

All five viral pandemics from 1918 through 2009

从 1918 年到 2009 年发生的 5 次全球疫病大流行

can be traced to animals,

其源头都可以追溯到动物，

and the same is likely true for COVID.

新冠可能也是如此。

Perhaps most concerningly,

或许最值得关注的是，

the estimated number of undiscovered viruses circulating in animals

据估计未被发现的、 仅在动物之间传播的、

that could potentially spill over is over 600,000.

有可能发生跨物种传播的 病毒超过 60 万种。

Spillover is also becoming more common

因为我们人类的所作所为，

because of what we humans are doing:

跨物种传播也变得越来越普遍：

wildlife trade,

野生动物贸易，

industrial-scale animal farms

工业规模的动物农场，

and, my focus today,

以及今天我的关注重点，

clearing of tropical forests.

砍伐热带雨林。

Changes in the way land is used,

土地使用方式的变化，

particularly deforestation,

尤其是森林砍伐，

may be the single biggest driver of new animal-borne diseases.

可能是新的动物传播疾病 的最大诱因。

There are three key ways that deforestation leads to disease.

森林砍伐导致疾病 的关键方式有 3 种。

First, the animals that survived deforestation,

首先，在森林砍伐中 幸存下来的动物，

such as some types of bats,

例如某些类型的蝙蝠，

tend to be ones that can live alongside people.

往往是可以与人生活在一起的动物。

For whatever the reason,

无论出于何种原因，

these animals often carry germs that can infect us.

这些动物通常携带 可以感染我们的细菌。

Second, when people move into deforested areas,

其次，当人们进入森林砍伐地区时，

they come into closer contact with wildlife,

他们与野生动物的接触会更密切，

creating opportunities to pass germs back and forth.

从而为来回传播病菌创造机会。

Finally, animals are more likely to spread disease

最后，当动物因失去家园 而紧张不安时，

when they're stressed from losing their homes.

它们更有可能传播疾病。

To make matters worse,

更糟糕的是，

the threat of infectious disease is only growing as our planet warms.

随着地球变暖， 传染病的威胁只会增加。

Over half of known infectious diseases in humans

超过一半的人类已知传染病

have been aggravated by climate change at some point.

在气候变化的某个节点都会加剧。

The World Health Organization even considers climate change

世界卫生组织甚至认为气候变化

the greatest threat to human health we face today.

是我们当今面临的 人类健康的最大威胁。

Now, I know what some of you are thinking.

我知道你们当中有人在想什么。

Would anybody really miss these guys?

真的会有人会在意这些家伙吗？

If we killed the bats, wouldn't that solve our problem?

如果我们杀掉蝙蝠， 问题不就解决了吗？

Of course not.

当然不是。

And I'm not just saying that

我之所以这么说，

because bats are my second favorite group of animals after snakes.

并不是因为蝙蝠是我 第二喜欢的动物群体，仅次于蛇。

(Laughter)

（笑声）

If anything, we'd just get exposed to more viruses when killing them.

而是我们在杀死蝙蝠的时候 会释放出更多的病毒。

We also depend upon bats for pollination and insect control.

而且我们还依靠蝙蝠 来授粉和控制昆虫。

But there is something we can do right now that would have an immediate impact

但我们也可以立即采取一些行动， 对健康和气候

on health and climate.

能起到立竿见影的效果。

What's more, it'll cost way less than fighting the next pandemic.

更重要的是，它的成本 将比抗击下一次全球疫情大流行低得多。

So what is this solution?

那么这个解决方案是什么？

Protecting tropical forests.

保护热带森林。

People don't clear-cut forests because it's fun work.

人们砍伐森林不是为了好玩。

Corporations may do it to make money in global markets.

企业可能是为了在全球市场上赚钱。

Rainforest communities,

而雨林社区，

many of which are very poor, may do it too, just to survive.

大多数都很贫穷，他们砍伐森林 可能只是为了生存。

Understanding these dynamics gives us a road map to reverse it.

了解这些动态 为我们提供了扭转局面的路线图。

In the early 2000s, for example,

例如，在 2000 年代初，

Brazilian government officials monitored forest loss with satellites

巴西政府官员用卫星监测森林流失，

and cracked down on illegal deforestation.

并打击非法砍伐森林活动。

They returned territory to Indigenous peoples

他们将土地还给了当地原住民，

who have successfully managed the Amazon for thousands of years.

后者已经成功管理 亚马逊流域数千年。

Under public pressure,

在公众压力下，

businesses stopped selling beef and soy

企业停止出售牛肉和大豆，

from recently deforested lands.

只要它们产自于近期砍伐的森林地区。

These efforts paid off.

这些努力得到了回报。

From 2004 to 2012,

从 2004 年到 2012 年，

deforestation in the Amazon plummeted by over 80 percent.

亚马逊地区的森林砍伐 下降了 80％ 以上。

Even better, agricultural output increased,

更好的是，农业产出增加了，

dispelling the myth that there's a trade-off between forests and food.

消除了“保护森林和获得食物 需要权衡取舍”的错误观念。

But here's the tricky thing about deforestation.

但森林砍伐有一点很棘手。

It's hyper local.

它的影响非常本地化。

There's no one-size-fits-all solution.

没有放之四海皆准的解决方案。

That means, above all else, we need to listen.

这意味着，最重要的是， 我们需要倾听。

That may sound a little fluffy, but bear with me.

这听起来可能有点不严谨， 但请耐心听我详细说明。

In Indonesian Borneo,

在印度尼西亚婆罗洲，

a nonprofit called Health and Harmony conducted what it calls radical listening

一家名为“健康与和谐”的非营利组织 进行了“深入聆听”，

to arrive at community-designed solutions to deforestation.

以便制定出社区设计的， 解决森林砍伐问题的方案。

Communities concluded that deforestation could be reversed

社区得出的结论是， 森林砍伐问题是可以解决的，

if they had quality health care and better jobs.

只要他们能得到高质量的医疗 和好的工作机会。

So the nonprofit, along with local partners, built a clinic.

于是，该非营利组织 与当地合作伙伴一起建立了一家诊所。

They trained community members to farm organically.

他们培训社区成员进行有机耕作。

They invested in youth education.

他们投资于青年教育。

Lo and behold, the communities were right.

惊喜的是，社区是对的。

Over the next decade,

在接下来的 10 年里，

deforestation dropped.

森林砍伐减少了。

Meanwhile, health improved.

同时，健康状况有所改善。

Infant mortality decreased by two thirds.

婴儿死亡率下降了三分之二。

What we see here is that people and planet don't need to be in conflict.

我们在这里看到的是， 人与星球不必发生冲突。

We have solutions to address deforestation.

我们有解决森林砍伐问题的方案。

And if we implement them wisely,

而且，如果我们明智地实施这些方案，

我们就能防止疫情爆发 并减缓气候变化。

we can prevent outbreaks and slow climate change.

Preventing outbreaks by saving nature will also help ensure

通过拯救自然来预防疫情爆发

that income doesn't dictate outcome.

也将确保收入水平 不会影响疾病治疗结果。

The tools we use to respond to outbreaks --

我们用来应对疫情爆发的工具：

medicines, vaccines,

药品、疫苗

even information --

甚至信息，

are inequitably distributed.

分配是不平等的。

In contrast, prevention benefits everyone equally.

相比之下，预防对每个人的 好处是平等的。

So how can we accelerate uptake of preventative solutions to outbreaks?

那么，我们应如何加速推广 疫情爆发的预防解决方案呢？

By building bridges between the health, climate and conservation sectors.

通过在健康、气候 和环保部门之间架设桥梁。

Pandemics, climate change and environmental destruction

流行病、气候变化和环境破坏

feed off each other.

是相互助长的。

But like the health sector,

但是，与卫生部门一样，

the climate sector hasn't fully recognized the value of nature.

气候部门尚未完全认识到自然的价值。

Nature-focused projects, for example,

例如，以自然为重点的项目

can get us over 30 percent of the emissions reductions

可以使我们获得达到气候目标

needed to reach our climate goals,

所需的 30％ 以上的减排量，

but only receive about five percent of climate funding.

但只能获得约 5％ 的气候资金。

In my own work,

在我自己的工作中，

I was also conditioned to overlook nature.

我也习惯性地忽视自然。

For years, I was made to feel guilty

多年来，我一直感到内疚，

for caring about species other than humans.

因为我关心其他物种 比关心人类更多。

Like it was a betrayal of the oath I took when I became a doctor.

就像背叛了我成为医生 时所做的誓言一样。

Right after I finished my training,

在我完成培训后，

I met a world-renowned physician and scientist

我遇到了一位世界知名的 医生和科学家，

多年来，我一直很崇拜他。

who I looked up to for years.

I was excited to ask him for his thoughts

我很兴奋地向他提问，

该如何在保护地球的同时， 提升人类的健康水平。

on how to improve human well-being while safeguarding the planet.

He looked at me and slowly said,

他看着我，慢慢地说，

"I don't care about polar bears."

“我不在乎北极熊。”

At first I was shocked.

起初我很震惊。

And then I felt embarrassed.

然后我感到很尴尬。

But from what I've seen from fighting outbreaks for over a decade,

但在经历了十几年 对抗疫情爆发之后，

I'm finally comfortable admitting

我终于可以放心地

that I do care about polar bears.

承认自己确实在乎北极熊。

And bats.

还有蝙蝠。

(Applause)

（掌声）

And bats

蝙蝠、

and forests

森林、

and people.

和人。

We all need to.

我们都需要在乎。

Because there is no human health or animal health or environmental health.

因为没有所谓的人类健康、 动物健康或环境健康。

They're one and the same.

它们是一体的。

In West Africa,

在西非，

it may have taken just one infected animal

可能只要一只受感染的动物

to spark an Ebola epidemic that killed more than 11,000 people.

就能引发埃博拉疫情， 造成超过 11000 人死亡。

But it will take everyone to sustain the delicate ecological balance

但是，维持我们都赖以生存 的微妙生态平衡，

that we all depend upon.

需要我们每一个人。

Thank you.

谢谢大家。

(Applause)

（掌声）