Ryan Phelan: The intended consequences of helping nature thrive | TED

翻译人员: George Sze 校对人员: Helen Chang

Meet Elizabeth Ann.

来认识一下伊丽莎白·安。

She's a black-footed ferret,

她是一只黑足雪貂，

America's most endangered animal.

是美国最濒危的动物。

She was cloned using cells from a ferret that lived 33 years ago.

她是用一只生活在 33 年前的雪貂 身上的细胞克隆的。

Elizabeth Ann is a new hope for the future of her species,

伊丽莎白·安是这个物种 未来的新希望，

a chance to actually restore lost genetic diversity.

也给遗传多样性的真正恢复 提供了可能性。

She was born for this intended consequence.

她就是为此而生的。

I've been working in conservation for the last 10 years

在过去的 10 年里， 我一直从事生态保护工作，

with innovative scientists from around the world

与来自世界各地的创新科学家一起

to bring biotechnology to wildlife conservation.

将生物技术应用于野生动植物保护。

We need to solve the escalating threats to biodiversity from climate change,

我们要解决不断升级的威胁， 从气候变化到生物多样性，

habitat loss, fragmented populations and wildlife diseases.

再到栖息地丧失、种群分散 和野生动植物疾病。

These are the unintended consequences of the human-dominated time we live in.

这些都是未曾预料的后果， 就发生在我们人类主导的时代。

A time when we need new tools for the conservation toolbox

生态保护需要新的手段，

and with genetic rescue,

使用基因拯救技术，

we can actually help stop more species from crossing the line into extinction.

我们可以帮助更多物种免于灭绝。

And the black-footed ferret is a great example.

黑足雪貂就是一个很好的例子。

The black footed-ferret historically ranged

黑足雪貂的足迹 曾经遍布整个北美大平原，

all across the Great Plains of North America,

from Canada to Mexico.

从加拿大一直到墨西哥。

That is, until their habitat was converted to ranches and farmland.

直到后来，他们的栖息地 变成了牧场和农田。

By 1981, there was only one colony of ferrets living in Wyoming.

到 1981 年，整个怀俄明州 只剩下一个雪貂群。

They were brought into captivity,

它们被人工圈养起来，

and the US Fish and Wildlife Service has successfully been breeding

美国鱼类及野生动植物管理局 在过去的 30 年里，

and releasing these individuals back into the wild for the last 30 years.

将它们成功繁殖并放归野外。

But all 600 living ferrets today

但所有 600 只现存的雪貂

are the descendants of just seven ancestors.

都来自共同的七个祖先。

And with inbreeding that jeopardizes their long-term survival in the wild.

近亲繁殖不利于 它们在野外的长期生存。

To solve this challenge of a lack of genetic variation,

为了解决缺乏遗传变异的难题，

we reached back in time.

我们追溯到了过去。

Luckily, scientists had the foresight.

幸运的是，科学家们早有远见。

Starting in 1975, Dr. Oliver Ryder and his team at the San Diego Zoo

从 1975 年开始，奥利弗·赖德博士 和他在圣地亚哥动物园的团队

started banking endangered species,

就开始储存濒危物种（基因），

and it was with one of these cell lines

正是利用这些细胞系，

that we were able to actually bring in a new individual

我们才能真正引入一个新个体，

who lived 33 years ago, who had unique genetic variation.

生活在 33 年前， 拥有独特遗传变异的个体。

Elizabeth Ann is a result of that cloning.

伊丽莎白·安就是这次克隆的结果。

She has three times more genetic variation than any living ferret today.

她具有的遗传变异性 是其他任何现存雪貂的三倍。

And when she breeds in the next couple of years,

当她在接下来几年里繁殖时，

her offspring will help create greater resilience for her species.

她的后代将有助于 为该物种创造更强的适应力。

Now Elizabeth Ann isn't the only time that we've done cloning.

伊丽莎白·安并不是 人类实现克隆的唯一案例。

We’ve worked with the Przewalski’s horses.

我们已将其应用在普氏野马身上。

These are the only true species of wild horse remaining in the world.

它们是世界上仅存的真正的野马种类。

Historically, they were native to Central Asia,

普氏野马原产于中亚，

but they roamed all the way from the Pacific

但几个世纪以来， 它们从太平洋沿岸一路漫游

to the Atlantic Ocean for centuries.

直至大西洋沿岸。

Until they were basically extinct in the wild,

直到它们在野外基本灭绝，

with only several horses left in captivity.

只剩下寥寥几匹被人工圈养。

Conservationists have reintroduced some of those horses since 1960,

自 1960 年以来，环保主义者 已将其中一些马重新放归野外。

back into the wild.

But all 2,000 horses all living today

但是现存的 2,000 匹马

are again at risk of inbreeding.

再次面临近亲繁殖的危机。

And many scientists refer to this challenge

许多科学家把这种情况称为灭绝漩涡，

as the extinction vortex,

when small, fragmented populations lose genetic variation

微小而分散的种群失去遗传变异，

and become at risk for the vortex of extinction

随着种群数量减少， 就会面临灭绝漩涡的危机。

as their populations dwindle.

Now, with genetic rescue, we can reverse this extinction vortex

现在有了基因拯救技术， 我们就可以扭转这种灭绝漩涡，

by bringing a new genetic variation

通过增加新的遗传变异

and increasing the long-term survival of these populations.

以及提高这些种群的长期存活率。

And that’s exactly what we did with this Przewalski’s foal

这正是我们对这只 名为库尔特的小普氏野马所做的事。

named Kurt.

That's actually his surrogate mother to the right.

画面右边是他的代孕妈妈。

She's an American Quarter Horse, a different species.

她是一匹美国夸特马， 与库尔特的物种并不相同。

But Kurt's genome is all wild horse.

但库尔特的基因组都是野马基因。

Now, here's Kurt, exactly one year later,

这是库尔特， 在这之后一年，

this August.

这是今年八月的照片。

He's a wild, healthy,

他是一匹野性、健康、

vibrant Przewalski's horse.

充满活力的普氏野马。

Now, these genetic rescue stories could not have happened

这些基因拯救故事本可能不会发生，

without the collaboration of multiple partners

幸亏有许多合作伙伴的帮助，

and the tools of biotechnology.

以及生物技术工具。

Fundamental to all of this is the most essential tool, is genomic sequencing

所有这一切的基础和最重要的工具， 就是基因组测序，

and the power of bringing that information into the light

以及相关技术信息的公开，

to help the management of these species.

都有助于更好地保护这些物种。

In addition, the bio banking,

此外，生物银行、

the cell culturing and the in vitro technologies

细胞培养和体外技术

have made this kind of genetic rescue possible.

都使基因拯救计划变得可行。

But even these technologies are not widely adopted by conservation.

但即使是这些技术 也没有被环保组织广泛采用。

We hope to change that.

我们希望改变这样的状况。

Emerging technologies of genetic engineering

新兴的基因工程技术

hold the promise of helping species adapt to climate change,

有望帮助物种适应气候变化，

solve wildlife disease problems,

解决野生动植物疾病问题，

and even help solve invasive species problems.

甚至有助于解决入侵物种问题。

But very often these technologies never get out of the starting gate

但很多时候，这些技术连起点都迈不出，

because the fear of unintended consequences absolutely stymies

因为对意外后果的恐惧 毫无疑问会阻碍创新，

even the most basic innovation at the get-go.

哪怕是最基础的技术创新。

Probably there's no more urgent need

我们在某些领域迫切需要

to overcome some of this reluctance to use these technologies

克服拒绝这些技术的想法，

than in the case of coral.

特别是在珊瑚保护的领域。

Coral, as many of you know,

珊瑚，正如你们许多人所知，

are the most diverse and rich ecosystems in the world.

是世界上最多样化的生态系统。

They provide a rich biodiversity

它们提供了丰富的生物多样性，

for reef-dwelling fish and all ocean life.

造福礁栖鱼类和所有海洋生物。

And yet, sadly,

然而，可悲的是，

50 percent of the Great Barrier Reef has been lost already to climate change

大堡礁的 50% 已经消失， 原因是气候变化和环境衰退。

and environmental degradation.

Estimates predicts that by 2050,

据估计，到 2050 年，

we could lose as much as 90 percent of the coral in the world.

我们可能会失去 世界上多达 90% 的珊瑚。

There is hope.

但希望还在。

Scientists around the world are utilizing new technologies

世界各地的科学家正在利用新技术

to cryopreserve even living coral fragments

冷冻保存活珊瑚碎片，

that can be transplanted onto artificial reefs.

这些碎片可以移植到人工鱼礁上。

This is just the beginning of some of the work that is pioneering

这只是开始着手做一些 具备可行性和开创性的工作。

and can happen.

I'm most excited about the use of the new technologies

最令我感到兴奋的是

开发干细胞新技术的使用。

for developing stem cells.

Now these stem cells could be used

现在，这些干细胞可用于

to actually genome edit in thermal resilience to warming oceans.

对海洋变暖的热弹性 进行真正的基因组编辑。

Now, you may be looking at that and saying,

现在，你可能会看着它说，

"Genetically modified corals?

“转基因珊瑚？ 之前说的可能意外后果呢？”

What about the unintended consequences?"

This question comes up so often with any innovation in science,

这个问题经常出现在科学创新中，

we decided to actually identify just how often, when humans intervene,

因此我们决定实际探究一下， 当人类干预自然活动时，

did they cause the disasters that people fear so much.

是否经常造成令人类恐惧的灾难后果。

And yes, your classic stories of humans intervening in nature

是的，你可能听过许多 人类干预自然并造成灾难的经典故事，

and causing disasters, like bringing rodents to islands,

比如啮齿动物藏在殖民帆船里 并被带到岛屿上的故事。

that stowed away on colonial sailing ships.

These invasive species and others have caused greater than 60 percent

自 1500 年代初以来， 包括入侵物种在内的诸多因素

已导致全球 60% 以上的物种灭绝。

of the extinctions worldwide since the early 1500s.

And then there's the poster child for intentionally releasing

典型代表是澳大利亚 引入有毒甘蔗蟾蜍。

the poisonous cane toad to Australia.

Back in 1935,

回到 1935 年，

the sugar cane industry brought this invasive, poisonous cane toad in

甘蔗行业引入了这种 入侵性的有毒甘蔗蟾蜍，

to solve their problem with beetles in their crops.

为的是解决他们庄稼上的甲虫问题。

It didn't do much for the beetles, and instead, since 1935,

它对甲虫没有产生太大作用， 反而自 1935 年以来，

it has continued to work its way across Australia,

它持续在澳大利亚各地活动，

leaving nothing in its wake

所过之地寸草不留，

and killing native species all along the way.

一路杀死本地物种。

These disasters stoke the minds of people about fear of intervention,

这些灾难激起了 人们对干预自然的恐惧，

and yet they happened in an era when there was little regard

但它们发生的年代，

for the overall environmental ecosystem.

几乎没有对整体环境生态系统的关注。

And they were done, in some cases,

在某些故事中， 人类干预可能实现了预期，

even with profit motivation in mind,

但那也是从利润动机去考虑，

they weren't done for conservation benefit.

并不是出于保护自然的目的。

And sadly, we never hear about the success stories.

可悲的是， 我们从未听说过成功的故事。

So when we looked at the research

因此，当我们关注相关研究，

about what happens when conservation intend to intervene in nature,

想弄清环保行动干预自然时会发生什么时，

we found a very different story.

我们发现了一个完全不同的故事。

All across the globe, for over a century,

在全球范围内，一个多世纪以来，

scientists have been introducing and reintroducing plants and animals

科学家们一直在引入和引回 对环境无害的植物和动物。

with no environmental harm.

You may know the classic success story of introducing wolves to Yellowstone.

你可能知道其中的成功典型： 将狼引入黄石公园的故事。

But that's not the only one.

但这并不是唯一的成功案例。

Think about this.

了解一下这个。

Over 1,000 species have been introduced all across North America

在过去的 125 年里， 超过 1,000 个物种被引入北美。

for the last 125 years.

There has been no documented case,

而仅有一次记录在案的个例，

except one,

of any intervention causing a local extinction.

显示干预导致了局部灭绝。

That was a native freshwater fish from a small spring in Alabama.

那次失败祸及了阿拉巴马州 一个小泉的原生淡水鱼。

Ninety-nine percent of these interventions have succeeded

但 99% 的干预措施

已成功实现其预期结果。

in achieving their intended consequence.

So you may look at this and wonder, if intervention is so common in nature,

你看到这里可能会纳闷， 如果干预在自然界中如此普遍，

why aren't we more aware of this?

为什么我们没有意识到这一点？

And I think it's because sometimes success is actually invisible to us.

我认为这是因为有时候 成功在我们见不到的地方。

Take, for example, this image of the Great Smoky Mountains,

以这张大雾山的图片为例，

America's most visited national park.

它是美国访问量最大的国家公园。

What we see as pristine wilderness is actually a very managed environment.

我们所看到的原始荒野 实际上是一个高度治理下的环境。

Those elk you see,

你看到的那些麋鹿，

they're the result of being absent for 200 years

它们是消失 200 年后

and being reintroduced.

又被重新引入的结果。

That meadow is a result of repeated controlled burns.

那片草地是反复受控燃烧的结果。

And non-native insects have been used to control pathogens and invasive pests.

外来昆虫已被用于 控制病原体和入侵性害虫。

And there's one more iconic species that could come back to this forest.

还有一种标志性的物种 可能会回到这片森林。

That's the American chestnut tree.

那就是美国栗树。

Historically, this majestic tree

这个雄伟的树种在几个世纪以来

rained down sweet nuts and fed humans and animals alike for centuries.

不断地洒下甜美的坚果， 为人类和动物提供食物。

For thousands of years,

千百年来，

it was the most abundant tree species

它曾是东部落叶林中数量最多的树种。

across the eastern deciduous forest.

It's lumber was used to create fine musical instruments

它的木材被用来 制作精美的乐器和硬木家具。

and hardwood furniture.

And until 1800,

直到 1800 年，

there were four billion of these trees across the forest

森林中还有 40 亿棵栗树存活。

until blight, a fungal blight that came in, imported,

后来一种真菌枯萎病开始蔓延， 病原体是入侵物种，

invasive species,

absolutely wiped out these trees.

彻底消灭了这些树木。

By 1950, all four billion trees were decimated.

到 1950 年， 40 亿棵树全部毁灭了。

Now, since that time,

从那时起，

scientists have tried for decades

科学家们几十年来一直试图

to figure out how to create a blight-resistant chestnut tree.

创造一种抗枯萎病的栗树。

And it's happened.

然后真的成功了。

Scientists at the State University of New York have identified a way

纽约州立大学的科学家们 已经找到了一种方法：

inserting a single gene from wheat that will convey blight resistance.

插入从小麦中提取的， 能够表达抗枯病性的基因。

These genetically modified trees right now are the first chance in 100 years

现在，这些转基因树木是 近 100 年来的第一次转机，

to restore these majestic trees to the forest.

能够让这些雄伟的树木重现森林。

The US Department of Agriculture right now is reviewing these trees

美国农业部目前正在审查这些树木，

for release into the wild.

以便让它们重现野外。

These are all bold initiatives.

这些都是很大胆的举措。

Engineering coral to withstand warming waters,

改造珊瑚以抵御变暖的海水，

restoring the American chestnut tree,

重现美洲栗树，

the genetic rescue of the black-footed ferret.

以及黑足雪貂的基因拯救计划。

All of these initiatives will require public engagement and public support.

这些举措都需要公众参与和支持。

I think it matters how people think about intervention.

我认为人们如何看待干预很重要。

I believe we need to bring more balance to how we think about risk.

在如何看待风险问题上， 我相信我们需要找到更好的平衡点。

There will always be unexpected outcomes

科学创新总会有意外结果，

to any innovation in science,

but we have the tools and technology today and the protocols to minimize risks

但我们有现代工具和技术， 以及相关协议，

可以实现风险最小化，收益最大化。

and maximize benefits.

So the next time you hear about some bold new idea,

所以下次听到 一些大胆的新想法时，

I hope you'll think first about the intended consequences.

希望你先考虑下预期的后果。

We don't have the luxury of time

我们没有富裕时间置身事外，

to stand by and wait and see what happens

冷眼旁观面临风险的 成千上万动植物的未来走向。

for the thousands of plants and animals at risk today.

We know that doing nothing can cause extinction.

我们冷眼旁观，它们就会灭绝。

Instead, let's carefully and intentionally plan

相反，我们要认真专程地制定计划，

with all the tools in the toolbox

充分利用人类的智慧结晶，

to achieve and create the future we want

实现和创造我们预期的未来，

and not overreact to a future that we fear.

而不是对未来的过度恐惧。

Thank you.

谢谢。

(Applause)

（掌声）

Chris Anderson: Please stay.

克里斯·安德森：请等一下。

I think this is so interesting.

我觉得这太有趣了。

It seems to me, at the heart of what you're wrestling with each time

在我看来，你每次论证的核心 都是一个道德问题。

is this, you know, it's a moral question.

So most moral philosophers, I think, would say that fundamentally,

所以我认为，大多数道德哲学家会说，

there's not a difference between intentional action

从根本上说，有意的作为 和有意不作为并没有区别，

and intentional inaction that leads to the same thing.

只要它们产生的结果是相同的，

So why is it that in so many areas of public policy

那么为什么在如此多的公共政策领域，

and certainly in the environmental movement,

当然，我是指环保活动领域，

there is this huge distinction that people make between action and inaction?

人们会在行动与否之间 如此泾渭分明呢？

They would rather not act and see something go wrong

他们选择不采取行动， 哪怕出现问题，

than take the risk of acting.

也不愿冒采取行动的风险。

Why?

这其中的原因是什么？

Ryan Phelan: You know, I think it's public pressure that they feel

瑞恩·费伦：我认为， 他们是感受到了公众压力，

as scientists innovating.

以科学家身份创新的压力，

They don't want to get it wrong.

他们不想犯错。

They have funders that challenged them on taking on innovation and action.

资助方也阻碍了 他们的创新行动。

They run the risk of losing jobs, funding, security, public shame.

他们要创新，就必须冒失败的风险： 失去工作、资助、安全，遭受公众耻辱。

It's so much easier for people to stand by and do nothing

袖手旁观就容易得多， 什么都不做，不扛起任何责任。

and not take ownership of it.

And I think this is really what we're trying to say,

我认为我们要提倡这一点：

is if we can encourage scientists and innovators to be bold,

如果能鼓励科学家 和创新者胆子大一点，

it will behoove all of us.

我们所有人都应该去鼓励他们。

CA: Right.

克里斯·安德森：是的。

So one advantage of inaction is just that you're less likely to be blamed.

因此，不作为的好处之一就是 你不太可能会被指责。

RP: Exactly.

瑞恩·费伦：没错。

You don't get credit either.

你也不会有功劳。

CA: No.

克里斯·安德森：对。

Ryan, these same technologies, synthetic biology and so forth,

瑞恩，这些相同的技术、合成生物学等等，

like in principle, they allow actual de-extinction,

好像原则上，它们能实现真正的复活，

species that the planet hasn't seen for years,

比如地球上多年未见的物种，

in principle, we could bring back.

原则上，我们可以让它们重现。

Are there any projects you're involved with

你参与的项目中，

that excite you or possibly terrify you,

有没有让你兴奋或恐惧的项目，

where we could see such de-extinction taking place?

其中就包含了这样的复活计划？

RP: Well, technically the American chestnut tree is almost extinct.

瑞恩·费伦：从技术上讲， 美国栗树几乎就灭绝了。

You know, people will see some sprouts come up

人们可能会看到一些新芽长出来，

because the roots are there,

因为那里还有根，

but they basically, you know,

但它们基本上在 15 年内 就不会再长了。

fail within 15 years.

So they're not totally extinct,

所以他们没有完全灭绝，

but they're very close to it.

但也很接近灭绝了。

You know, we are working on everything from the woolly mammoth,

我们研究很多生物， 你们中的一些人可能知道，

as some of you may know, to the passenger pigeon.

大到猛犸象，小到旅鸽。

But to me, the most motivating part of these technologies is,

但这些技术中 最让我有动力的是，

de-extinction is just a big, hairy, audacious goal.

已灭绝生物的复活只是一个 宏大的、模糊的、大胆的目标。

And if we get there, it'll be grand.

如果我们成功了，会很伟大。

But getting there, all of these genetic rescue tools and technology

但成功之前， 所有这些基因拯救工具和技术

can be applied to save endangered species.

都可以用于拯救濒危物种。

It's all a fundamental tool kit.

这些技术就是基础工具包。

It's essential.

不可或缺。

CA: Well, Ryan, you're an extremely compelling and persuasive

克里斯·安德森：瑞恩，我想说， 你所述内容非常有说服力，

and trustworthy voice, I would say.

非常值得信赖。

So thank you so much for the work you're doing

非常感谢你们所做的工作，

and for sharing this.

以及与我们的分享。

(Applause)

（掌声）