Ryan Phelan: The intended consequences of helping nature thrive | TED

譯者: Lilian Chiu 審譯者: Helen Chang

Meet Elizabeth Ann.

見見伊麗莎白·安。

She's a black-footed ferret,

牠是黑足鼬，

America's most endangered animal.

美國最瀕臨絕種的動物。

She was cloned using cells from a ferret that lived 33 years ago.

她是用細胞複製出來的，

細胞來自一隻三十三年前的黑足鼬。

Elizabeth Ann is a new hope for the future of her species,

伊麗莎白安為這個物種的 未來帶來了新希望，

a chance to actually restore lost genetic diversity.

這是個機會，能把已失去的 基因多樣性真正恢復回來。

She was born for this intended consequence.

牠是為了這個預期的結果而出生。

I've been working in conservation for the last 10 years

過去十年，我都投入在保育上，

with innovative scientists from around the world

和世界各地的創新科學家合作，

to bring biotechnology to wildlife conservation.

將生物科技帶到野生生物保育中。

We need to solve the escalating threats to biodiversity from climate change,

我們得設法處理生物多樣性 所受到日益增加的威脅，

威脅的來源包括 氣候變遷、棲息地消失、

habitat loss, fragmented populations and wildlife diseases.

棲息地破碎化，以及野生生物疾病。

These are the unintended consequences of the human-dominated time we live in.

這些是未預期的結果，

是我們所處的人類主導時期所造成。

A time when we need new tools for the conservation toolbox

在這個時期，我們的保育 工具箱需要添入新工具，

and with genetic rescue,

有了基因拯救，

we can actually help stop more species from crossing the line into extinction.

我們可以協助防止

更多物種走向絕種。

And the black-footed ferret is a great example.

黑足鼬就是個很好的例子。

The black footed-ferret historically ranged

歷史上，黑足鼬的分佈範圍

all across the Great Plains of North America,

遍及北美大平原，

from Canada to Mexico.

從加拿大到墨西哥。

That is, until their habitat was converted to ranches and farmland.

那是在牠們的棲息地被改成

牧場和農地之前。

By 1981, there was only one colony of ferrets living in Wyoming.

到了 1981 年，

懷俄明州只剩下一個黑足鼬的群落。

They were brought into captivity,

牠們被圈養起來，

and the US Fish and Wildlife Service has successfully been breeding

美國魚類及野生動物管理局

在過去三十年間成功地

and releasing these individuals back into the wild for the last 30 years.

繁殖黑足鼬並將牠們野放。

But all 600 living ferrets today

但現今還活著的六百隻黑足鼬

are the descendants of just seven ancestors.

都是七隻祖先的後代。

And with inbreeding that jeopardizes their long-term survival in the wild.

而同系繁殖

會危及到牠們長期在野外的生存。

To solve this challenge of a lack of genetic variation,

為了解決這個缺乏基因變異的難題，

we reached back in time.

我們尋求過去。

Luckily, scientists had the foresight.

幸運的是，

科學家當時就有先見之明。

Starting in 1975, Dr. Oliver Ryder and his team at the San Diego Zoo

從 1975 年起，

奧利佛·萊德博士和他在 聖地牙哥動物園的團隊

started banking endangered species,

就開始為瀕臨絕種物種建立資料庫，

and it was with one of these cell lines

正是其中一個細胞株讓我們得以

that we were able to actually bring in a new individual

製造出一個新的個體，

who lived 33 years ago, who had unique genetic variation.

牠活在三十三年前， 有著獨特的基因變異。

Elizabeth Ann is a result of that cloning.

伊麗莎白·安就是複製牠的結果。

She has three times more genetic variation than any living ferret today.

牠的基因變異是現今 尚存的黑足鼬的三倍之多。

And when she breeds in the next couple of years,

在接下來幾年， 當牠繁殖時，牠的後代

her offspring will help create greater resilience for her species.

就能讓牠的物種有更強的韌性。

Now Elizabeth Ann isn't the only time that we've done cloning.

我們做過的複製不只有伊麗莎白·安。

We’ve worked with the Przewalski’s horses.

我們也做過普氏（蒙古）野馬。

These are the only true species of wild horse remaining in the world.

牠們是世界上

現存唯一真正的野生馬種。

Historically, they were native to Central Asia,

歷史上，牠們是中亞的原生種，

but they roamed all the way from the Pacific

但數世紀以來，牠們一路

to the Atlantic Ocean for centuries.

從太平洋流浪到到大西洋。

Until they were basically extinct in the wild,

直到牠們基本上已經在野外絕種，

with only several horses left in captivity.

只剩下幾隻圈養的。

Conservationists have reintroduced some of those horses since 1960,

保育人士從 1960 年起便開始

重新將這些馬引入野外。

back into the wild.

But all 2,000 horses all living today

但現今仍然存活的兩千匹馬

are again at risk of inbreeding.

同樣也面臨了同系繁殖的風險。

And many scientists refer to this challenge

許多科學家把這個難題

稱為絕種旋渦，

as the extinction vortex,

when small, fragmented populations lose genetic variation

居住在破碎棲息地的小族群

失去了基因變異，

and become at risk for the vortex of extinction

隨著族群數量漸減，

開始面臨絕種旋渦的風險。

as their populations dwindle.

Now, with genetic rescue, we can reverse this extinction vortex

現在，透過基因拯救， 我們就能反轉這絕種旋渦，

by bringing a new genetic variation

帶來新的基因變異，

and increasing the long-term survival of these populations.

增加這些族群的長期生存機會。

And that’s exactly what we did with this Przewalski’s foal

這正是我們對這隻 普氏野馬仔所做的事，

named Kurt.

牠叫做科特。

That's actually his surrogate mother to the right.

右邊那隻是牠的代理孕母。

She's an American Quarter Horse, a different species.

牠是美洲奎特馬，不同的物種。

But Kurt's genome is all wild horse.

但科特的基因組完全是野馬的。

Now, here's Kurt, exactly one year later,

這是一年後的科特，

this August.

今年八月拍攝。

He's a wild, healthy,

牠是隻狂野、健康、 活潑的普氏野馬。

vibrant Przewalski's horse.

Now, these genetic rescue stories could not have happened

這些基因拯救故事能夠實現，

without the collaboration of multiple partners

靠的是多方夥伴的合作，

and the tools of biotechnology.

加上生物科技的工具。

Fundamental to all of this is the most essential tool, is genomic sequencing

這一切的基礎，

是最不可缺的工具：基因定序，

and the power of bringing that information into the light

以及有能力將那些資訊公佈出來，

to help the management of these species.

來協助管理這些物種。

In addition, the bio banking,

此外，建置生物資料庫、

the cell culturing and the in vitro technologies

細胞培養，以及試管技術，

have made this kind of genetic rescue possible.

讓這種基因拯救成為可能。

But even these technologies are not widely adopted by conservation.

但就連這些技術也沒有 被廣泛使用在保育上。

We hope to change that.

我們希望能改變這個現象。

Emerging technologies of genetic engineering

基因工程的新興技術

hold the promise of helping species adapt to climate change,

讓我們有希望能協助物種 適應氣候變遷、

solve wildlife disease problems,

解決野生生物疾病問題，

and even help solve invasive species problems.

甚至能協助解決入侵物種問題。

But very often these technologies never get out of the starting gate

但通常這些技術 根本還出不了起跑門，

because the fear of unintended consequences absolutely stymies

因為害怕未預期的結果，

就連最基本的創新都會

even the most basic innovation at the get-go.

在開端就受到阻礙。

Probably there's no more urgent need

目前，可能最迫切的需要

to overcome some of this reluctance to use these technologies

去克服意願問題 以使用這些技術的例子，

than in the case of coral.

就是珊瑚的例子了。

Coral, as many of you know,

很多人可能知道，珊瑚

are the most diverse and rich ecosystems in the world.

是世界上最多樣化 且豐富的生態系統。

They provide a rich biodiversity

牠們提供了豐富的生物多樣性

for reef-dwelling fish and all ocean life.

給居住在珊瑚礁的魚類 和所有海洋生物。

And yet, sadly,

但，感傷的是，

50 percent of the Great Barrier Reef has been lost already to climate change

50% 的大堡礁已經消失，

原因是氣候變遷及環境退化。

and environmental degradation.

Estimates predicts that by 2050,

據估計，到了 2050 年，

we could lose as much as 90 percent of the coral in the world.

我們可能會失去全世界 高達 90% 的珊瑚。

There is hope.

還是有希望。

Scientists around the world are utilizing new technologies

世界各地的科學家都在使用新技術

to cryopreserve even living coral fragments

將活珊瑚的小部分 用超低溫冷凍起來，

that can be transplanted onto artificial reefs.

可以移植到人工珊瑚礁上。

This is just the beginning of some of the work that is pioneering

開創性且有機會實現的 一些行動都才剛開始。

and can happen.

I'm most excited about the use of the new technologies

最讓我興奮的是

開發幹細胞的新技術。

for developing stem cells.

Now these stem cells could be used

這些幹細胞可以用在

to actually genome edit in thermal resilience to warming oceans.

把熱彈性透過編輯放進基因組，

來因應海洋暖化。

你可能會看著這些，說：

Now, you may be looking at that and saying,

"Genetically modified corals?

「基因改造的珊瑚？

What about the unintended consequences?"

那未預期的結果怎麼辦？」

This question comes up so often with any innovation in science,

在科學領域的任何創新 都會經常碰到這個問題，

we decided to actually identify just how often, when humans intervene,

我們決定要真正

來查出，人類干預有多常

did they cause the disasters that people fear so much.

會導致大家如此懼怕的災難。

And yes, your classic stories of humans intervening in nature

是的，有些很經典的故事 就是人類干預大自然，

and causing disasters, like bringing rodents to islands,

造成災難，比如 齧齒目動物躲在殖民船裡，

that stowed away on colonial sailing ships.

跟著來到島嶼上。

These invasive species and others have caused greater than 60 percent

從 1500 年代起， 全世界的物種絕種當中

of the extinctions worldwide since the early 1500s.

有 60% 以上是這些 及其他入侵物種造成。

And then there's the poster child for intentionally releasing

還有個海報上的孩子

代表蓄意把有毒的 海（甘蔗）蟾蜍釋放到澳洲。

the poisonous cane toad to Australia.

Back in 1935,

1935 年時，甘蔗產業

the sugar cane industry brought this invasive, poisonous cane toad in

把這種有毒的入侵種海蟾蜍帶進來，

to solve their problem with beetles in their crops.

以解決作物的甲蟲問題。

It didn't do much for the beetles, and instead, since 1935,

對甲蟲沒有什麼用， 反而，從 1935 年起，

it has continued to work its way across Australia,

海蟾蜍持續擴散到澳洲各地，

leaving nothing in its wake

經過之處什麼都不留下，

and killing native species all along the way.

一路上殺害原生物種。

These disasters stoke the minds of people about fear of intervention,

這些災難

讓大家的腦中充滿了對干預的恐懼，

and yet they happened in an era when there was little regard

但，發生這些災難的時代，

並不著重

整體的環境生態系統。

for the overall environmental ecosystem.

And they were done, in some cases,

且，

在某些例子中， 干預的出發點是利益，

even with profit motivation in mind,

they weren't done for conservation benefit.

並非為了做好保育而做。

And sadly, we never hear about the success stories.

感傷的是，我們從來沒有 聽過成功的故事。

So when we looked at the research

所以，當我們去看研究，

about what happens when conservation intend to intervene in nature,

關於為了保育而干預大自然時 會發生什麼事的研究，

we found a very different story.

我們發現了非常不同的故事。

All across the globe, for over a century,

在全世界，一個世紀以來，

scientists have been introducing and reintroducing plants and animals

科學家不斷在引入 和再引入植物與動物

with no environmental harm.

且沒有造成環境傷害。

You may know the classic success story of introducing wolves to Yellowstone.

各位可能聽過的經典成功故事， 是將狼引入黃石公園。

But that's not the only one.

但還有其他成功故事。想想看：

Think about this.

Over 1,000 species have been introduced all across North America

在過去一百二十五年間， 有超過一千種物種

for the last 125 years.

被引入到北美各地。

There has been no documented case,

在所有有記錄的案例當中，只有一件

except one,

of any intervention causing a local extinction.

是干預造成當地物種絕種。

That was a native freshwater fish from a small spring in Alabama.

是阿拉巴馬小泉中的 一種原生淡水魚。

Ninety-nine percent of these interventions have succeeded

這些干預當中有 99% 都成功

達成了它們預期的結果。

in achieving their intended consequence.

So you may look at this and wonder, if intervention is so common in nature,

看著這些，你可能會想：

如果在大自然中干預如此普遍，

why aren't we more aware of this?

為什麼我們沒什麼意識到？

And I think it's because sometimes success is actually invisible to us.

我認為，那是因為，有時，

我們看不見成功。

Take, for example, this image of the Great Smoky Mountains,

比如，看看這張大煙山的照片，

America's most visited national park.

它是美國最多人造訪的國家公園。

What we see as pristine wilderness is actually a very managed environment.

我們所見的原始野外，其實 是非常人工經營管制的環境。

Those elk you see,

照片上的那些麋鹿， 是在消失兩百年後

they're the result of being absent for 200 years

再次被引入的結果。

and being reintroduced.

That meadow is a result of repeated controlled burns.

那片草原是人工控制 重覆燃燒產生的結果。

And non-native insects have been used to control pathogens and invasive pests.

非原生的昆蟲則被用來控制病原體

和入侵的害蟲。

And there's one more iconic species that could come back to this forest.

還有一種代表性的物種 有可能回到這片森林。

That's the American chestnut tree.

就是美國栗樹。

Historically, this majestic tree

在歷史上，這種宏偉的樹木

rained down sweet nuts and fed humans and animals alike for centuries.

會大量落下甜美的果實，

數世紀來供給食物 給人類和類似的動物。

For thousands of years,

數千年來，它一直都是東邊落葉林中

it was the most abundant tree species

across the eastern deciduous forest.

最豐產的樹種。

It's lumber was used to create fine musical instruments

它的木材被用來製造

上等的樂器和硬木家具。

and hardwood furniture.

And until 1800,

到 1800 年，

there were four billion of these trees across the forest

整座森林中有四十億棵這種樹，

until blight, a fungal blight that came in, imported,

直到枯萎病到來， 真菌引起的枯萎病被進口，

invasive species,

入侵物種，徹底消滅這些樹木。

absolutely wiped out these trees.

By 1950, all four billion trees were decimated.

到了 1950 年，

四十億棵樹全都死光了。

Now, since that time,

從那之後的數十年， 科學家都在嘗試

scientists have tried for decades

to figure out how to create a blight-resistant chestnut tree.

想辦法創造出能對抗枯萎病的栗樹。

And it's happened.

且實現了。

Scientists at the State University of New York have identified a way

紐約州立大學的科學家

已經找到一種方法

插入一個來自小麥的基因，

inserting a single gene from wheat that will convey blight resistance.

帶來對枯萎病的抗病性。

These genetically modified trees right now are the first chance in 100 years

這些基因改造樹，

是我們在一百年來第一次有機會

to restore these majestic trees to the forest.

讓這些宏偉的樹木 再次出現在森林中。

The US Department of Agriculture right now is reviewing these trees

美國農業部現在正在檢審這些樹木

for release into the wild.

是否可以釋放到野外。

These are all bold initiatives.

這些都是很大膽的計畫。

Engineering coral to withstand warming waters,

改造出能承受暖化水域的珊瑚、

restoring the American chestnut tree,

恢復美國栗樹、

the genetic rescue of the black-footed ferret.

黑足鼬的基因拯救。

All of these initiatives will require public engagement and public support.

所有這些計畫都需要

大眾的參與和大眾的支持。

I think it matters how people think about intervention.

我認為大家

對干預的看法是很重要的。

I believe we need to bring more balance to how we think about risk.

我相信，我們得要將更多平衡

帶到我們對於風險的看法中。

There will always be unexpected outcomes

永遠都會有未預期的結果，

to any innovation in science,

科學的創新都一定會有，

but we have the tools and technology today and the protocols to minimize risks

但現今我們有工具、技術、協定

可以把風險減到最低，

and maximize benefits.

把利益增加到最大。

So the next time you hear about some bold new idea,

所以，下次當你聽到大膽的新想法，

I hope you'll think first about the intended consequences.

我希望你能先想想預期的結果。

We don't have the luxury of time

我們沒有浪費時間的本錢，

to stand by and wait and see what happens

不能再袖手旁觀等著看 現今面臨風險的數千種

for the thousands of plants and animals at risk today.

動植物會發生什麼事，

We know that doing nothing can cause extinction.

我們知道，什麼都不做可能會造成絕種。

Instead, let's carefully and intentionally plan

我們應該要仔細、刻意地做規劃，

with all the tools in the toolbox

用上工具箱中的所有工具，

to achieve and create the future we want

達成並創造出我們想要的未來，

and not overreact to a future that we fear.

不要對我們害怕的未來過度反應。

Thank you.

謝謝。

(Applause)

（掌聲）

Chris Anderson: Please stay.

克里斯·安德森：請留步。

I think this is so interesting.

我覺得這非常有意思。

It seems to me, at the heart of what you're wrestling with each time

就我看來，

每次你努力奮鬥的核心都是

is this, you know, it's a moral question.

一個道德問題。

So most moral philosophers, I think, would say that fundamentally,

我想，大部分的道德哲學家

會說，如果有意識的行動 和有意識的不行動

there's not a difference between intentional action

and intentional inaction that leads to the same thing.

會造成相同結果，那麼， 基本上，它們就沒有差別。

So why is it that in so many areas of public policy

所以，為什麼在許多公共政策領域，

and certainly in the environmental movement,

肯定包含環境運動領域，

there is this huge distinction that people make between action and inaction?

大家會把行動與不行動 做這麼大的區別？

他們寧可不行動，看事情出差錯，

They would rather not act and see something go wrong

than take the risk of acting.

也不願冒險採取行動。為什麼？

Why?

瑞安·費連：我認為原因是

Ryan Phelan: You know, I think it's public pressure that they feel

科學家在創新時感受到的公眾壓力。

as scientists innovating.

They don't want to get it wrong.

他們不想弄錯。

They have funders that challenged them on taking on innovation and action.

他們要面對金主

挑戰他們為什麼要創新和行動。

They run the risk of losing jobs, funding, security, public shame.

他們要冒著失去工作、資金、

安全、公開受辱的風險。

It's so much easier for people to stand by and do nothing

對大家來說，袖手旁觀容易許多，

and not take ownership of it.

不要把責任扛起來。

And I think this is really what we're trying to say,

我們很想要傳達的訊息 就是，如果我們能鼓勵

is if we can encourage scientists and innovators to be bold,

科學家和創新者大膽去做，

it will behoove all of us.

這是我們所有人該做的。

CA: Right.

克：是的。所以不採取行動的 優勢之一是不太可能被責怪。

So one advantage of inaction is just that you're less likely to be blamed.

RP: Exactly.

瑞：正是。

You don't get credit either.

但也沒功勞。

CA: No.

克：沒有。

Ryan, these same technologies, synthetic biology and so forth,

瑞安，這些技術，合成生物學等等，

like in principle, they allow actual de-extinction,

原則上，它們能協助「反絕種」，

species that the planet hasn't seen for years,

在地球上多年沒出現過的物種，

in principle, we could bring back.

原則上，我們可以帶回來。

Are there any projects you're involved with

你是否有參與什麼計畫，

that excite you or possibly terrify you,

會讓你感到興奮或害怕，

where we could see such de-extinction taking place?

且是有可能實現「反絕種」？

RP: Well, technically the American chestnut tree is almost extinct.

瑞：技術上來說， 美國栗樹幾乎絕種了。

You know, people will see some sprouts come up

大家會看到一些新芽冒出來，

because the roots are there,

因為根都在那裡，

but they basically, you know,

但，它們，基本上，

fail within 15 years.

會在十五年內消失。

So they're not totally extinct,

它們沒有完全絕種， 但已經非常接近了。

but they're very close to it.

You know, we are working on everything from the woolly mammoth,

我們在盡一切努力， 從滿是毛的長毛象，

as some of you may know, to the passenger pigeon.

有些人可能知道，到旅鴿。

But to me, the most motivating part of these technologies is,

對我來說，這些技術 最能帶給我動力的原因

de-extinction is just a big, hairy, audacious goal.

在於「反絕種」是個遠大、 毛茸茸、大膽的目標。

And if we get there, it'll be grand.

如果我們做到了，那是重大的成功。

But getting there, all of these genetic rescue tools and technology

但在這個過程中，

所有這些基因拯救工具 和技術都可以用來

can be applied to save endangered species.

拯救瀕臨絕種的物種。

It's all a fundamental tool kit.

這是個很基礎的工具組。很必要的。

It's essential.

CA: Well, Ryan, you're an extremely compelling and persuasive

克：瑞安，你是個非常

引人注目、有說服力，且……

and trustworthy voice, I would say.

我會說，值得信賴的聲音。

So thank you so much for the work you're doing

非常謝謝你所做的努力，

and for sharing this.

也謝謝分享這些。

(Applause)

（掌聲）