5 Promising Factors Propelling Climate Action | Gabriel Kra | TED Countdown

翻译人员: Ying Du 校对人员: Yan Li Xiao

We need to change the way we think about the climate challenge.

我们需要改变对气候危机的看法，

Because things are different this time.

因为这次的情况很不一样。

We need to stop thinking about it just as a problem, which it obviously is,

我们不要再去想 气候危机是个不好的东西——

气候危机肯定不好——

and start thinking about it as an opportunity

我们需要把气候危机视为机遇，

which will motivate us to solve it.

这将激励我们解决问题。

I'm a venture investor.

我是一名风险投资者。

I invest in early stage companies and technologies,

我投资起步公司和新兴技术。

and I see tremendous opportunities in solving climate change.

我看到气候变化带来了很大的机遇。

That said, we've been here before, and it's different this time.

不过，我们以前也走到过这一步， 且如今的情况与以往不同。

We can reduce net emissions to zero.

如今我们可以将净排放量降至零，

And that was not obvious even just 10 years ago.

但就在十年前，这一点还很难做到。

Why do I think it's different?

为什么我觉得现在与过去不同呢？

Because we have cheaper inputs, we have better technologies.

因为我们的成本更低， 技术水平更高；

We have better policies.

我们的政策环境更好，

We have a better sense of urgency.

紧迫感也更为强烈。

And most important of all, we have even better people working on it.

最重要的地方在于， 参与者的素质有了很大提高。

I'm from Silicon Valley,

我来自硅谷，

and you can laugh or shrug

如果你认为硅谷更像是问题的制造者， 而不是问题的解决者的呢，

if you think that the Valley is more part of the problem

than part of the solution.

那么你可以感到不屑。

But consider this.

但是请想一想，

To succeed, if we want to succeed,

为了成功—— 如果大家想要成功——

we have to act at such a truly massive scale.

那就必须采取极大规模的集体行动。

We need the best investors and entrepreneurs on our team.

我们需要团队中 最好的投资者和企业家。

And it's a fact that some 15 years ago,

事实上，十五年前，

a bunch of us started working on technologies and companies

我们中已有一部分人 对某些技术和企业做出了投资，

that could help solve climate change.

目的是为了解决气候问题。

And we had some successes,

我们也取得了一些成功——

in solar and in wind,

太阳能、风能、

in electric vehicles and transportation.

电动汽车、交通……

But, accelerated by the Great Recession of 2008,

可随着 2008 年的经济萧条，

climate tech, clean tech came to be seen as a string of investment failures.

气候技术和清洁技术的投资 成了一个又一个的失败。

I don't think we failed.

可我不认为我们失败了。

We were a little bit early and a little bit naive.

我们起步有些早， 想法也有点幼稚。

We didn't have all those building blocks.

当时我们没有像现在这么多的资源，

Not enough of us knew that solving climate change

我们中没有多少人知道 气候危机是我们这代人最大的商机。

was the greatest business opportunity of our generation.

And we were a little bit naive.

我们也有一点天真，

We underestimated how hard it was going to be

对于不愿变革的企业和行业而言， 迫使他们作出变革是很难的，

to disrupt entrenched companies and industries

that did not want to change.

而当时的我们低估了这一难度。

But now so many more people are invested in solving it.

但现在，有更多的人致力于 解决气候问题。

We have those building blocks, and we have even more people working on it.

我们手上有了资源， 人手也比以往更多了。

That's why I'm so optimistic and excited, why it's different this time.

因此，如今的情况跟过去不同了， 对此我信心十足、振奋不已。

Let me detail a few.

让我详细介绍一下。

First, we have cheaper inputs.

首先，我们的成本更低了。

The biggest input in our economy and the dominant cost is energy.

经济方面，最大的投入和成本 在于能源领域。

Until now, the dominant source of energy is fossils: coal, oil, gas.

目前，煤、石油、天然气等化石燃料 仍是主要的能源来源。

Climate change is caused by burning fossil fuels.

气候变化的成因是化石燃料的燃烧。

But now, prompted by incredible decline in cost,

可是现在，由于成本大幅下降，

solar and wind are the cheapest forms of electricity,

太阳能和风能是地球上大多数地方 最便宜的电力形式。

most places on the planet.

Until recently, while we knew that fossils were the source of the problem,

在此之前，虽然我们知道 化石燃料是问题的根源，

we had no alternatives.

但我们别无选择，

Stopping fossils would have meant stopping the economy.

放弃化石燃料，意味着放弃经济。

Alternatives now exist.

可现在，我们有了选择。

Two, we have better technologies.

第二，我们现在有更好的技术。

Consider lithium-ion batteries

想想……锂电池，

and how they enabled the electric vehicle revolution.

想想锂电池是怎么掀起 电动汽车革命的，

Those batteries are now being applied towards other applications

如今，锂电池已经被用于 电动汽车以外的用途和领域。

and other opportunities.

We have better computers and new ways of using them.

电脑的配置超越以往， 电脑的玩法也多种多样。

Machine learning and artificial intelligence

应用于大数据集的 机器学习和人工智能

applied to big data sets

enables us to explore and develop new materials.

使我们能够探索和开发新材料，

It enables us to reduce energy needs,

使我们能够减少能源需求，

and it enables us to solve problems in previously unimaginable ways,

使我们能够以崭新的方式 看待、解决问题，

some as simple as software that companies use to optimize delivery routes.

有时候就像企业使用软件 优化配送路线一样，

We use less fuel to get stuff places.

配送的东西多了， 消耗的燃料更少了。

The bioeconomy has CRISPR and other gene editing tools.

生物经济学领域 我们有 CRISPR 等基因编辑工具，

Those can be used to help plants like wheat, corn, rice, soy

让小麦、玉米、水稻、大豆等植物

grow with less inputs, less water, less fertilizer.

能在投入更少、水分更少、 肥料更少的情况下生长。

Massive opportunities.

机会是巨大的。

And we are in the early stages of developing equipment

目前，我们正开始研发一款设备，

that can suck carbon dioxide out of the air,

这款设备能将二氧化碳 从空气中移走，

with the promise of one day reversing some of the pollution

我们希望这款设备 能扭转过去两百年来

we've been pouring into our atmosphere for the past 200 years.

人类一直向大气排放的污染。

Three.

第三，我们已经拥有、 并正在研发更好的材料。

We have and are developing better materials.

The streets we walk on, the buildings we work in,

我们行走的街道， 我们工作的写字楼，

they're made of concrete and steel.

都是由钢筋混凝土制成的。

Combined, those two contribute over 15 percent of global emissions.

这两者加起来占 全球排放量的 15% 以上。

Now we can start making buildings up to 20 stories or more high

现在，我们可以建造 二十层或以上的建筑物，

without any steel or concrete.

且不需要任何钢筋或混凝土。

There’s structures made of laminated mass timber,

我们可以使用单板层积材

which actually sequesters carbon.

来吸收空气中的碳。

And at the same time, we're developing ways

同时，我们也在研发新型生产方式， 争取实现钢筋混凝土的零排放生产。

of making steel and concrete without emissions.

Fourth.

第四，

Climate tech is now sexy, elegant and chic.

如今的气候技术 引人注目、优雅别致。

Electric vehicles were invented in the 1880s.

电动汽车发明于 1880 年代。

As recently as the 1990s, though, they were clunky and ugly.

可是，1990 年代的电动汽车 依然是既笨重又丑陋。

You couldn't go much more than 50 miles on a single charge.

那时的电动汽车， 一次充电连 50 英里（80 公里）都撑不到。

Now we have safe, affordable,

现在，我们有了安全、实惠、

fun-to-drive, sexy electric vehicles.

体验丰富、引人瞩目的电动汽车。

I think in five years we're going to be surprised,

我觉得，五年之后， 如果还有人想买汽油车，

we'll be shocked if people want to buy a gasoline version.

那可真是件稀奇的事情了。

Or consider solar panels.

另外，想想太阳能电池板。

Not too long ago,

不久前，

many communities banned them from being installed on their roofs

以前，许多社区禁止居民 在屋顶上装太阳能板，

for fear that they would uglify the neighborhood.

因为担心太阳能板会造成负面观感。

Now they look like roofs.

如今，太阳能板 正是屋顶该有的样子，

They're a status symbol.

太阳能板成了地位的象征，

You have to have them.

人人都得装一个。

Other panels are used to power not just homes

太阳能板不仅用于家庭供电，

but companies and factories.

还用于公司和工厂供电。

Messaging matters.

信息的传递重要。

Fifth, there is so much more money being directed

第五，“零排放投资” 正获得越来越多的资金。

towards zero-emissions investments.

Solving these problems, building these companies

解决问题、建立公司

takes hard-working entrepreneurs,

需要勤奋的企业家，也需要资金。

and it takes money.

Until not so long ago,

直到不久前，

there weren't many people willing to invest in the riskiest technologies.

还没有多少人 愿意投资风险最高的技术。

Now we have dedicated pools of capital focused across climate,

现在，我们拥有专用的资金池， 其资金专门用于气候变化——

from early-stage technologies and companies

从早期的技术支持和公司运营， 到后期的研发工作，

to later-stage development

and massive utility scale projects that require billions of dollars,

以及需要数十亿美元的 大规模公用事业规模项目，

which actually encourages more capital to come in

这实际上鼓励了更多的资本 流入这个领域，

and is a [virtuous] cycle.

形成了良性的循环。

Each of these examples -- this is not an exhaustive list --

我刚才提到的每一个例子—— 还有很多别的例子——

but each of these examples are real.

它们的每一个都是真实的，

Real opportunities that are in development.

是发展中的真正机会。

We also have better policies.

我们的政策也变得更好了。

Governments are making plans

政府正在制定计划，

that make them good partners and customers for entrepreneurs.

与企业家发展合作， 购买企业家的产品。

We know so much more about climate injustice.

我们对气候不公的了解 已经更深一步。

We have real demand from the public to solve it.

公众也真心希望气候问题能够解决。

We have engineers and scientists and investors

全球的工程师、科学家和投资者 都参与了进来。

working around the planet on these problems.

Put these things together

结合以上种种，

and a clear picture emerges,

一副清晰的画面就呈现在了眼前，

a realistic pathway towards a clean future for all.

一条为所有人开辟的、 通往清洁未来的现实道路。

These things have another characteristic.

这一切还有一个特点——

They are combinatorial.

一切都是环环相扣的。

One accelerates the other.

一环为另一环加速，

One propels the next forward.

另一环推动下一环前进。

For instance, with cheap green electricity,

例如，有了廉价的绿色电力，

we will soon have cheap green hydrogen.

我们很快就会有廉价的绿色氢气。

Green hydrogen can be used to power homes and factories.

绿色氢气可以为家庭和工厂供电，

It can be used to make fertilizer,

可以生产肥料，

or it can be used to make steel without emissions.

也可以生产零排放的钢铁。

Tremendous opportunities.

机会是巨大的。

We're developing storage systems and batteries

我们正在开发存储系统和电池，

that are the missing link

让风能和太阳能最终能替代

to make wind and solar firm and dispatchable,

real alternatives to fossils.

坚固、可调度的化石的真正替代品。

And ...

以及，记住我的话，

mark my words,

the combination of EVs and electric trains,

电动汽车和电动火车、 遥感器和大数据分析的结合

remote sensors and big data analytics,

it's going to revolutionize how we move people and goods around the planet.

将彻底改变我们 在地球上运送人员和货物的方式。

Of course, we still have a lot to do.

当然，我们还有很多事情要做。

We have to develop the solutions we have,

我们必须开发我们现有的解决方案，

and we have to develop and invent some

而且我们必须发明解决方案

to solve some wickedly hard problems,

来解决一些极其棘手的问题，

many of which I've mentioned already.

其中很多我已经提到过。

For instance, how do we grow healthy food without emissions

例如，我们如何在 保护和恢复自然的同时

种植无排放的健康食品呢？

while protecting and restoring nature?

How do we construct our buildings and fly airplanes without emissions?

我们如何零排放的 建造房子和使用飞机？

How do we recycle minerals instead of mining for new?

我们如何回收矿物， 而不是开采新的矿物？

And how do we make chemicals without drilling for oil and gas?

我们如何在不钻探石油 和天然气的情况下制造化学品？

How do we make steel without emissions

我们如何制造无排放的钢铁 和大规模吸收二氧化碳的混凝土？

and concrete that absorbs carbon dioxide at scale?

And how do we all,

我们所有人，

especially big emitters like multinational corporations,

尤其是跨国公司等大排放源，

track and report our emissions?

如何跟踪和报告我们的排放呢？

Because you cannot manage what you don't measure.

因为你无法管理你没有衡量的东西。

We need good, reliable, transparent carbon accounting.

我们需要良好、可靠、透明的碳核算。

Another massive opportunity:

另一个巨大的机会：

developing carbon accounting and reporting software.

开发碳核算和报告软件。

Now, so many people understand the urgency of the situation.

现在，很多人都明白了形势的紧迫性。

We understand that new and now go hand in hand.

我们理解这一点，现在携手并进。

We can't sit around waiting for a solution.

我们不能坐等解决办法。

We need to get out and develop the ones we have

我们需要走出去，开发我们现有的，

while we invent the ones we don't have yet.

同时发明我们还没有的。

And none of this happens without passionate people,

如果没有热情的人， 这一切都不会发生，

and that's why I'm so excited, so optimistic.

这就是为什么我如此兴奋， 如此乐观。

I see it everywhere,

我随处可见，

from young people in the United States

从拒绝为一家不致力于 清洁未来的公司工作的美国年轻人，

who refuse to work for a company that isn’t committed to a clean future,

to engineers in Africa

到开发非洲大陆所需的基础设施、 水和电的非洲工程师，

developing the infrastructure, the water and the electricity that continent needs,

but doing so sustainably.

他们的工作是可持续的。

And this is also combinatorial.

这也是组合的。

Great people attract more great people,

优秀的人吸引更优秀的人人，

which catalyzes more money, brings in even more great people.

这会催化更多的钱，带来更多优秀的人。

It's a virtuous cycle.

这是一个良性循环。

Having worked -- the key factor in any effort, in any enterprise,

在任何努力中，在任何企业中，

the key factor in that success is the people.

功的关键因素是人。

And having worked in innovation almost all my adult life,

我成年后几乎一直从事创新工作， 我可以诚实地说，

I can honestly say that the people I work with every day are,

跟我每天共事的人，

和你，是解决方案。

you are, the solution.

We are different this time.

这次我们不同了。

And that’s why it’s different this time.

这就是为什么这次不同了。

And we will succeed.

我们会成功的。

Thank you.

非常感谢。

(Applause)

（掌声）