5 Promising Factors Propelling Climate Action | Gabriel Kra | TED Countdown

譯者: YuChieh Huang 審譯者: Regina Chu

We need to change the way we think about the climate challenge.

我們需要改變面對氣候挑戰的思維。

Because things are different this time.

有些事已經不同於以往。

We need to stop thinking about it just as a problem, which it obviously is,

我們不應再將它視為一個問題，

它當然是一個問題，

and start thinking about it as an opportunity

而是應該視為一個機會。

which will motivate us to solve it.

這樣我們會更有動機去解決它。

I'm a venture investor.

我是一個創投投資人。

I invest in early stage companies and technologies,

我投資初創期的新創公司和技術，

and I see tremendous opportunities in solving climate change.

我看到了解決氣候變遷問題的無窮機會。

That said, we've been here before, and it's different this time.

儘管如此，我們以前有類似經驗， 但是現在已有改變。

We can reduce net emissions to zero.

我們可以減碳達到淨零。

And that was not obvious even just 10 years ago.

這目標即使在十年前也是很模糊。

Why do I think it's different?

為何我認為已經有所不同了？

Because we have cheaper inputs, we have better technologies.

因為我們可以有比較便宜的投入， 有比較好的技術，

We have better policies.

我們有比較好的政策。

We have a better sense of urgency.

我們有更高的警覺性。

And most important of all, we have even better people working on it.

最重要的是，我們有更好的人才 可以處理這議題。

I'm from Silicon Valley,

我來自矽谷，

and you can laugh or shrug

你可能會嘲笑或聳聳肩，

if you think that the Valley is more part of the problem

如果你認為矽谷是問題的幫凶，

than part of the solution.

而不是解決方案。

But consider this.

但是請想想，

To succeed, if we want to succeed,

為了成功，如果我們想要成功，

we have to act at such a truly massive scale.

我們必須在大規模下行動，

We need the best investors and entrepreneurs on our team.

我們需要最好的投資者 和企業家加入團隊。

And it's a fact that some 15 years ago,

大約 15 年前，我們

a bunch of us started working on technologies and companies

有一群人開始研發和籌組公司，

that could help solve climate change.

尋求幫助氣候變遷問題的解決方案。

And we had some successes,

我們取得部分成功，

in solar and in wind,

在太陽能和風力能源，

in electric vehicles and transportation.

以及電動車與運輸方面。

But, accelerated by the Great Recession of 2008,

然而，2008 年金融危機經濟衰退，

climate tech, clean tech came to be seen as a string of investment failures.

氣候相關、再生能源技術 出現一連串的失敗。

I don't think we failed.

雖然我不認為我們失敗了。

We were a little bit early and a little bit naive.

我們是開始的有點早、也有點天真。

We didn't have all those building blocks.

當時我們沒有這些基礎，

Not enough of us knew that solving climate change

對於解決氣候變遷議題，很多人不知道

was the greatest business opportunity of our generation.

在我們這個世代這是一個巨大的商機。

And we were a little bit naive.

而且，我們當時有點天真，

We underestimated how hard it was going to be

低估了這項任務的難度，

to disrupt entrenched companies and industries

這會衝擊並不想改變、 長期經營的傳統企業。

that did not want to change.

But now so many more people are invested in solving it.

不過現在越來越多人願意 投資、解決問題。

We have those building blocks, and we have even more people working on it.

我們有這樣的基礎、 也有越來越多人願意投入。

That's why I'm so optimistic and excited, why it's different this time.

這也是我樂觀且滿懷期待的原因， 也與以前大不相同。

Let me detail a few.

讓我為各位詳細說明。

First, we have cheaper inputs.

首先，我們有比較便宜的投入，

The biggest input in our economy and the dominant cost is energy.

經濟體最大的投入和內部成本是能源。

Until now, the dominant source of energy is fossils: coal, oil, gas.

目前主要的能源來源是 石化燃料：煤、石油和天然氣。

Climate change is caused by burning fossil fuels.

氣候變遷也是石化燃料燃燒造成的。

But now, prompted by incredible decline in cost,

然而現在能源成本大幅下降，

solar and wind are the cheapest forms of electricity,

在大多數地方，太陽能和風力 是最省錢的發電方式。

most places on the planet.

Until recently, while we knew that fossils were the source of the problem,

一直到最近，即使我們知道 石化燃料是問題根源，

we had no alternatives.

但我們沒有別的選擇。

Stopping fossils would have meant stopping the economy.

停止使用石化燃料代表 經濟發展跟著停滯，

Alternatives now exist.

而現在我們有替代方案了。

Two, we have better technologies.

第二，我們有更好的技術，

Consider lithium-ion batteries

例如，鋰離子電池

and how they enabled the electric vehicle revolution.

它促成了電動車革命，

Those batteries are now being applied towards other applications

這些鋰電池現在則被拿來做其他應用，

and other opportunities.

和發展其他的商機。

We have better computers and new ways of using them.

我們有更好的電腦和應用的新方法。

Machine learning and artificial intelligence

機器學習和 AI 人工智慧，

applied to big data sets

在大數據資料的應用下，

enables us to explore and develop new materials.

促使我們發掘、發展新興材料。

It enables us to reduce energy needs,

它讓我們減少能源需求，

and it enables us to solve problems in previously unimaginable ways,

也讓我們以先前無法想像的方式 解決了問題。

some as simple as software that companies use to optimize delivery routes.

有些是軟體研發，例如公司 用作最佳化路徑的策略。

We use less fuel to get stuff places.

我們可以使用更少燃料取得物品，

The bioeconomy has CRISPR and other gene editing tools.

生物經濟擁有 CRISPR 與其他基因編輯工具。

Those can be used to help plants like wheat, corn, rice, soy

這技術可以幫助作物， 如小麥、玉米、稻米和大豆，

grow with less inputs, less water, less fertilizer.

作物成長可以使用更少投入、 更少水分和肥料，

Massive opportunities.

這是巨大的機會。

而我們正處於研發可以捕捉大氣中

And we are in the early stages of developing equipment

that can suck carbon dioxide out of the air,

二氧化碳的設備的早期階段，

with the promise of one day reversing some of the pollution

以達成減少長期以來造成污染的承諾，

we've been pouring into our atmosphere for the past 200 years.

因為在過去的 200 年裡， 我們一直製造二氧化碳到大氣中。

Three.

第三，

We have and are developing better materials.

我們已經擁有和發展出較好的材料。

The streets we walk on, the buildings we work in,

我們行走的街道、居住的建築物，

they're made of concrete and steel.

都是由水泥和鋼鐵建造。

Combined, those two contribute over 15 percent of global emissions.

這兩個加總起來超過了 15% 的全球排放量。

Now we can start making buildings up to 20 stories or more high

現在我們已經可以建造超過 20 層樓的建物，

without any steel or concrete.

卻不需要任何鋼鐵或水泥。

There’s structures made of laminated mass timber,

這是因為有一種層壓式板材的出現，

which actually sequesters carbon.

可以真的吸收碳的一種材質。

And at the same time, we're developing ways

同時，我們發展出不用排放二氧化碳

of making steel and concrete without emissions.

製造鋼鐵和水泥的方法。

Fourth.

第四、

Climate tech is now sexy, elegant and chic.

氣候技術目前很具吸引力、 也很美好又流行。

Electric vehicles were invented in the 1880s.

在 1880 年代就發明了電動車，

As recently as the 1990s, though, they were clunky and ugly.

直到 1990 年代，外表卻還是 很過時也不好看。

You couldn't go much more than 50 miles on a single charge.

每次充電不能開超過 50 哩。

Now we have safe, affordable,

而現在我們已有既安全又經濟實惠，

fun-to-drive, sexy electric vehicles.

外表好看、有趣體驗的電動車可駕駛。

I think in five years we're going to be surprised,

我認為五年後我們會很驚訝，

we'll be shocked if people want to buy a gasoline version.

怎麼還有人想要購買汽油車。

Or consider solar panels.

或是，在考慮購買太陽能板時，

Not too long ago,

沒多久以前，

many communities banned them from being installed on their roofs

許多社區仍禁止 在住宅屋頂上裝設太陽能板，

for fear that they would uglify the neighborhood.

因為擔心會醜化社區外觀。

Now they look like roofs.

現在這些太陽能板已經做的很像屋頂，

They're a status symbol.

而且變成一種身分象徵，

You have to have them.

你必須擁有它們。

Other panels are used to power not just homes

太陽能板不僅用於住宅、

but companies and factories.

在公司或工廠也會使用它。

Messaging matters.

訊息傳遞是關鍵。

Fifth, there is so much more money being directed

第五，有許多的資金導向

towards zero-emissions investments.

投注於淨零計畫。

Solving these problems, building these companies

為了解決這種問題，建造這樣的公司

takes hard-working entrepreneurs,

需要認真做事的企業家，也很貴。

and it takes money.

Until not so long ago,

直到前一陣子，

there weren't many people willing to invest in the riskiest technologies.

仍然沒有太多人願意投資這 高風險的技術行業。

Now we have dedicated pools of capital focused across climate,

現在我們已經有氣候專門的資本池，

from early-stage technologies and companies

支持包含初創的技術 到已進入後期發展的公司，

to later-stage development

and massive utility scale projects that require billions of dollars,

以及需要數十億美元的 大規模公有事業計畫。

which actually encourages more capital to come in

這些計畫鼓勵更多資本投入，

and is a [virtuous] cycle.

這是一個良性的循環。

Each of these examples -- this is not an exhaustive list --

每個例子── 雖不是詳盡的清單──

but each of these examples are real.

但是每個例子都是真實的。

Real opportunities that are in development.

真實的機會正在發展中，

We also have better policies.

我們也有更完善的政策，

Governments are making plans

政府正在制定計畫，

that make them good partners and customers for entrepreneurs.

讓他們成為企業的良好合作夥伴、客戶。

We know so much more about climate injustice.

我們知道了更多的氣候不公義，

We have real demand from the public to solve it.

我們有來自大眾真實的需求需解決，

We have engineers and scientists and investors

我們有工程師、科學家和投資者，

working around the planet on these problems.

在全球專注於解決這些問題。

Put these things together

將前述這些問題合併來看，

and a clear picture emerges,

清楚的藍圖變浮現了，

a realistic pathway towards a clean future for all.

有一條明確的路徑邁向乾淨的未來。

These things have another characteristic.

這些工作有另一特性，

They are combinatorial.

它們是相輔相成的。

One accelerates the other.

執行一項可以加速另一項，

One propels the next forward.

一項又推動至下一項。

For instance, with cheap green electricity,

舉例來說，先有便宜的綠色電力、

we will soon have cheap green hydrogen.

很快就會有便宜的綠色氫能。

Green hydrogen can be used to power homes and factories.

綠色氫能可以做為家用和工廠用電，

It can be used to make fertilizer,

也可以用來製作肥料、

or it can be used to make steel without emissions.

或是製造鋼鐵而不排碳。

Tremendous opportunities.

無限的可能性。

We're developing storage systems and batteries

我們正在發展儲存系統和電池，

that are the missing link

補足現有風力和太陽能的缺口， 變得更穩、可調配，

to make wind and solar firm and dispatchable,

real alternatives to fossils.

成為真正替代石化燃料的方案。

And ...

以及……

mark my words,

記住我的話，

the combination of EVs and electric trains,

結合電動車和火車電氣化，

remote sensors and big data analytics,

遠距感測器和大數據分析，

it's going to revolutionize how we move people and goods around the planet.

讓全球人們和貨運的移動 有了革命性轉變，

Of course, we still have a lot to do.

當然，我們還有許多事需進行，

We have to develop the solutions we have,

我們需發展現有解決方案，

and we have to develop and invent some

我們必須發展和研發一些方案

to solve some wickedly hard problems,

來解決部分非常困難的問題，

many of which I've mentioned already.

其中許多方案我已經提過。

For instance, how do we grow healthy food without emissions

舉例來說，如何 種植健康的食材而不排碳，

while protecting and restoring nature?

同時又保護和復育自然。

How do we construct our buildings and fly airplanes without emissions?

我們如何建造房子和航行而不排碳呢？

How do we recycle minerals instead of mining for new?

我們應如何回收礦物而不是持續開採，

And how do we make chemicals without drilling for oil and gas?

以及我們如何不鑽探石油和天然氣 去製造化學材料，

How do we make steel without emissions

我們如何製造鋼鐵而不排碳，

and concrete that absorbs carbon dioxide at scale?

並使用水泥混凝土吸收大量二氧化碳。

And how do we all,

我們所有人，

especially big emitters like multinational corporations,

尤其是跨國公司這樣的大型排放源，

track and report our emissions?

要如何追蹤和申報我們的排放量？

Because you cannot manage what you don't measure.

因為我們不能管理我們沒有測量的事。

We need good, reliable, transparent carbon accounting.

我們需要良好可靠又透明的碳帳戶。

Another massive opportunity:

另一個巨大的商機是，

developing carbon accounting and reporting software.

發展碳帳戶和申報軟體。

Now, so many people understand the urgency of the situation.

當今，許多人已經了解情況的危急性。

We understand that new and now go hand in hand.

我們了解新興趨勢且與之密切相關。

We can't sit around waiting for a solution.

我們不能只是坐等解決方案出現。

We need to get out and develop the ones we have

我們需要起而行並發展我們現有，

while we invent the ones we don't have yet.

並且研發我們還沒有的部分。

And none of this happens without passionate people,

沒有有熱枕的人甚麼事都不會發生，

and that's why I'm so excited, so optimistic.

這也是為什麼我這麼的樂觀和雀躍。

I see it everywhere,

我可以看到許多在美國的年輕一代 擁有這樣的熱忱，

from young people in the United States

who refuse to work for a company that isn’t committed to a clean future,

拒絕在非綠色企業的公司 工作的這些年輕人，

to engineers in Africa

去非洲開發硬體建設、 發展水和電力，滿足當地需求，

developing the infrastructure, the water and the electricity that continent needs,

but doing so sustainably.

但採用的是永續的方式。

And this is also combinatorial.

這也是相輔相成的一環，

Great people attract more great people,

好的人才會吸引更多好人才，

which catalyzes more money, brings in even more great people.

又可以帶來更多的資金、 乃至於更好的人才。

It's a virtuous cycle.

這是一個良性的循環。

Having worked -- the key factor in any effort, in any enterprise,

我出社會後──關鍵在於 任何努力投入、在任何企業，

the key factor in that success is the people.

成功的關鍵都在於人才。

And having worked in innovation almost all my adult life,

我出社會後一直致力於創新，

I can honestly say that the people I work with every day are,

我可以誠實的說， 每天和我一起工作的人們，

you are, the solution.

你們，就是解決方案。

We are different this time.

我們與以前不同，

And that’s why it’s different this time.

這也是為什麼現在不同於以往。

And we will succeed.

而我們會成功。

Thank you.

謝謝大家。

(Applause)

（鼓掌）