The Problem With Food and Climate — and How To Fix It | Jonathan Foley | TED

翻译人员: Lena Fu 校对人员: suya f.

It might surprise you to learn that the food we eat

你可能会惊讶地发现， 我们吃的食物、种植这些食物的农场

and the farms that grow it,

and the landscapes we've cleared

以及我们开垦的土地，

all contribute to climate change

都对气候变化产生了影响，

and contribute in a really, really big way.

而且影响非常非常大。

Our job today is to figure out what we can actually do about it.

我们今天的工作是 弄清楚我们究竟能做些什么。

Well, this is also kind of a tricky topic,

这也是一个棘手的话题，

in part because there are just so many variables at work and so many processes,

部分原因是工作中 存在太多的变量和流程，

but also it's a place of a lot of confusion and misinformation.

同时也存在很多混乱和错误的信息。

So how are we going to move forward together

那么我们将如何共同前进，

and try to figure out something with clarity?

并努力弄清楚一些事情呢？

Well, to do that, I like to listen to the data

为了做到这一点，我喜欢看数据，

and see what it tells us

看看它能告诉我们什么，

and see what we can learn from it.

看看我们可以从中学到什么。

And the first thing the data tells us about our food system

关于人类食品系统 数据告诉我们的的第一件事是

is that it's really, really big.

它真的非常非常庞大。

So let's take a look at this.

让我们来看看这个。

This is the land that we use on Earth just to grow our crops, here in green.

绿色部分是我们在地球上 用来种植庄稼的土地。

Here's the land we use to graze our animals, here in red.

红色部分是我们用来放牧的土地。

Together, that's a huge amount of land.

两部分加起来，是一片巨大的土地。

It's about 38 percent of all the land there is on Earth.

它约占全球所有陆地的38％。

To put that in perspective,

从这个角度来看，

all the cities and suburbs on Earth

地球上所有的城市和郊区

cover less than one percent of Earth's land.

只占全球土地不到 1% 的面积。

This is 38.

而这是 38。

Now, of this 38,

在这 38 中，

29 of it is used for animals.

29 用于动物养殖。

Either to graze or to grow animal feed.

要么用于放牧， 要么用于种植动物饲料。

So we have a huge footprint of agriculture,

因此，我们的农业碳足迹是非常巨大的，

and a lot of it is devoted to the animal part

其中很大一部分来自于 农业系统的动物养殖。

of our agricultural systems.

So food dominates our planet

因此食品主宰着我们的星球，

and animals dominate the food system today.

动物主宰着当今的食品系统。

That's just data.

这只是数据。

That's just the truth.

这只是事实。

So what does this mean?

那么这意味着什么呢？

It means that there's some massive environmental impacts

这意味着，单单我们食品系统本身， 就会对环境产生一些巨大的影响。

just from the sheer real estate of our food system.

And we have to acknowledge that

我们必须承认，

whether it's the role of agriculture in driving biodiversity loss

农业无论是在导致生物多样性丧失、

or water pollution

或者水污染

or degrading ecosystems all over the world.

或者全球生态系统退化方面，

It has a huge footprint.

它产生的碳足迹都很巨大。

And that footprint doesn't end just on land or in water.

而且这种足迹并不仅 局限于陆地或水中，

It extends all the way to the atmosphere and our climate system.

它一直蔓延到大气层 以及我们的气候系统。

In fact, if you look at the emissions data from the IPCC,

实际上，如果 你看 IPCC 的排放数据，

we find that agriculture, land use

我们会发现农业、

and the food system as a whole

土地利用和食品系统，

contribute about 22 percent of global emissions.

总共贡献了全球排放量的 22％。

That's comparable to the emissions from electricity or from industry.

这与电力或工业的排放量相当。

So this is a pretty big player.

所以这是一个相当大的因素。

Let's look under the hood and see what's involved in this.

让我们深入了解一下， 看看其中涉及什么。

Of this 22 percent of greenhouse gas emissions

在来自食品系统的

coming from the food system,

22％ 温室气体排放中，

there are four big players.

有四个主要因素。

The first is deforestation.

首先是森林砍伐，

That's about half of all those food emissions

这大约占所有食品 温室气体排放量的一半，

at 11 percent of global emissions.

占全球温室气体排放量的 11％。

Eleven percent, that's a pretty big deal.

11% 是个相当大的数字。

To put that in perspective,

从这个角度来看，

the entire US economy emits 10 to 11 percent.

整个美国经济的温室气体排放量 为 10％ 到 11％ 之间。

Deforestation is even bigger,

相比看，森林砍伐的温室 气体排放量甚至更多，

and we don't talk about this nearly enough.

我们对此的讨论还不够。

Second is methane from livestock.

其次是来自牲畜产生的甲烷，

Now we hear a lot of jokes about what cows do

我们听过很多关于牛的笑话 （牛屁导致气候变暖），

and all that kind of thing,

诸如此类的事情，

but the science is actually really clear.

但是科学其实很清楚，

Livestock are a huge emitter of methane,

牲畜是甲烷的巨大排放源，

and methane is a very big driver of climate change,

而甲烷是气候变化的一个主要驱动因素，

and we have to make that connection.

我们必须认识到这一点。

Third is basically industrial farming methods,

第三基本来自于工业化耕作方式，

especially overusing chemicals like fertilizers

尤其是过度使用化肥等化学物质，

and treating soil really badly.

以及严重破坏土壤。

We have to think about that too.

我们也必须考虑这一点。

And then finally we have rice production,

最后是水稻生产，

another methane producer at around two percent.

另一个甲烷的产生源（约为 2％）。

That's also going to be really important.

这也将非常重要。

So the first order all of those emissions,

因此，在最大的排放源中，

those 22 percent come from just those four things:

22%仅来自以下四个方面：

deforestation, livestock,

森林砍伐、牲畜、

industrial farming methods and rice.

工业化耕作方式和水稻。

So we're going to have to look at all those in some detail.

因此，我们必须详细研究所有这些内容。

But that's not all.

但这还不是全部。

Beyond these direct emissions of food, that 22 percent,

除了这 22% 的直接排放外，

there are some indirect ways the food system emits greenhouse gas as well.

食品系统还通过一些 间接方式排放温室气体。

For example, discarded food might end up in a landfill somewhere

例如，丢弃的食物最终 可能会进入某个垃圾填埋场，

rotting and producing methane.

腐烂并产生甲烷。

And that's counted over here in the industry column.

这已经算到了工业领域的排放中。

And then we have to think about all the energy

然后，我们必须考虑

and materials it takes to grow food,

and then later to process, transport,

以及后续加工、运输、包装和准备食品

package and prepare it.

所需的所有能源和材料，

That's counted elsewhere in the food system as well.

这也算在了食品系统的其他地方。

So when we look at these data, it tells us that, yes,

因此，当我们查看这些数据时， 它告诉我们，是的，

food releases 22 percent of greenhouse gases directly,

食品生产直接 释放了 22％ 的温室气体，

but when we add all the other sources, it grows to something like 34 percent,

但当我们加上所有其他来源时， 数字会增长到大约34％，

roughly a third of all the greenhouse gases on Earth.

大约占全球所有温室气体的三分之一。

So that means it's a third of the climate problem.

因此，这意味着 它是气候问题的三分之一。

In other words,

换句话说，

we cannot solve climate change

我们无法解决气候变化问题，

unless we also address the problems of food

除非我们在解决燃料 和能源问题的同时 ，

alongside fossil fuels and energy.

去解决食物的问题。

So that's why we're here today,

这就是我们今天在这里的原因，

to talk about why food and climate are so connected.

讨论食品和气候为何 如此关系密切的原因。

So we have a problem.

所以我们有一个问题。

And that problem is getting bigger

这个问题变得越来越严重，

because the emissions of food are rising.

因为食品领域的排放量越来越多。

Even in countries like the United States,

即使在像美国这样的国家，

where emissions of other greenhouse gases are going down,

其他领域的温室气体排放量正在下降，

in the US emissions, electricity are going down,

美国电力领域的排放量在下降，

in industry, they're going down.

工业领域的排放量也在下降。

They're beginning to go down in buildings and transportation,

建筑和交通领域的排放量正在开始下降，

but not in food.

但食品领域的排放量没有下降。

They're still going up.

它们还在上升。

And that's true throughout the world.

这在全世界都是如此。

This is the most stubborn and difficult part of the whole climate puzzle.

这是整个气候难题中 最顽固和最困难的部分。

So we need to really take this seriously.

因此，我们需要认真对待这个问题。

So basically, we have a crisis in food and climate

基本上，我们面临着食品和气候危机，

because it's a huge emitter of greenhouse gases.

因为它是温室气体的巨大排放源。

It's getting worse.

情况越来越糟。

And it's a problem where there's a lot of confusion

这个问题存在很多混乱的信息，

and kind of misinformation flowing around,

到处都是错误的信息，

and we don't often know what to do.

我常常不知道该怎么做。

So this is where we need a plan.

因此，我们需要一个计划。

We need a science-based plan that helps us move forward

我们需要一项以科学为基础的计划 ，

through the challenge of food and climate change.

帮助我们应对食品和气候变化的挑战。

Well, what's the first step of the plan?

那么，计划的第一步是什么？

The first step of the plan, always, in climate change,

在应对气候变化方面， 计划的第一步总是，

is to cut the emissions.

减少排放。

Always, whether it's electricity or industry or transportation.

无论是在电力、 工业还是运输领域，始终是这样。

You always start by cutting the primary pollution.

你总是要从减少主要污染源开始。

Why?

为什么？

Well, one analogy we often use is a bathtub.

我们经常使用浴缸打比方。

If a bathtub is overflowing and pouring out into the floor

如果浴缸里的水溢出并流到地板上，

or damaging your house,

正在损坏你的房屋，

what's the first thing you do?

你要做的第一件事是什么？

You turn off the faucet,

你要关掉水龙头，

then you go look for the sponge to clean up the rest of the water.

然后去找海绵把剩余的水擦干净。

So let's turn off the faucet of pollution

因此，让我们关掉污染源的水龙头，

and turn down these huge sources.

减少这些巨大的污染源。

To do that, there are four key pillars we can follow to do it.

要做到这一点， 我们可以遵循四个关键点。

The first is to be more efficient.

首先是提高效率。

Just like insulating buildings or driving hybrid cars,

就像进行建筑隔热 或驾驶混合动力汽车一样，

efficiency is a good place to start.

提高效率是一个不错的开始。

So within the food system, we have a lot of opportunities for efficiency,

在食品系统中， 我们有很多提高效率的机会，

especially by cutting food waste and food loss.

尤其是通过减少食物浪费和损失方面。

And there's astonishing numbers here.

这里有个惊人的数字。

It turns out about 30 to 40 percent of all the food grown on Earth

事实证明，全球所有种植的食物 中约有 30％ 至 40％

is never eaten.

从未被食用。

So that means that 30 to 40 percent of all the land and water

这意味着生产食物所需的

and greenhouse gases it took to grow food

土地、水以及排放的温室气体，

weren't even necessary.

有 30% 至 40% 是没有必要的。

So cutting food waste turns out to be a big lever in stopping climate change.

因此减少食物浪费 是阻止气候变化的重要手段。

We also need to look at diets.

我们还需要研究饮食结构 。

Now this one gets a little bit tricky and people don't like to talk about it,

这个问题有点棘手， 人们不喜欢谈论它，

but we're going to need to

但我们需要这样做。

because it turns out some foods end up emitting

因为事实证明有些食物比其他食物

a lot more greenhouse gases than others.

最终排放更多的温室气体。

Just look at the top things on this list

只需看看这些排在最上方的食物，

of greenhouse gas emissions per pound of food.

它们的单磅温室气体排放量最高。

What do they all have in common?

他们都有什么共同点？

They're all animal products.

它们都是荤食。

And then look at beef at the top of the list.

然后看看排在榜首的牛肉。

It's literally off the chart.

它简直爆表了。

And it emits 100 pounds of greenhouse gases

平均每磅牛肉会排放

for one pound of beef on average.

100 磅的温室气体。

Some of it is even more than that.

有些甚至比这还多。

Now just stop and think about that for just one second.

现在，请停下来思考一下。

It turns out a pound of coal, the dirtiest fossil fuel there is,

事实证明，生产一磅煤炭 （目前最脏的化石燃料）

releases about four pounds of CO2,

会释放大约四磅的二氧化碳，

but producing one pound of beef produces 100 pounds of greenhouse gas.

但生产一磅牛肉 会产生 100 磅的温室气体。

This makes beef the most climate-polluting substance

这使牛肉成为你我生活中最常遇到的

you and I will normally encounter in our lives.

最严重的气候变化污染源。

So this is kind of a big deal.

所以这是一个大问题。

And that's one of the reasons among many,

这是众多原因之一，

that shifting diets towards more plant-rich options

更多地选择素食，

is a good idea for climate.

对气候有益。

Now, it doesn't mean everybody goes vegan tomorrow.

但这并不意味着 从明天开始所有人都要吃素，

Even small, targeted changes can make a big, big difference.

即使是微小的，

有针对性的改变也能带来巨大变化。

We also have to think about ways of protecting forests

我们还必须考虑如何保护森林

and other ecosystems from being cleared.

和其他生态系统免遭破坏。

One of the things we have to be concerned about is commodity agriculture,

我们必须关注的一件事是商品农业，

especially clearing forests for more beef, more soybeans,

尤其是为了生产更多牛肉、

which are used for animal feed, and palm oil.

大豆（动物饲料）和棕榈油 而对森林的砍伐。

Those are some of the biggest clearers of tropical rainforest,

这是一些热带雨林中最大的砍伐区域，

and we have to look for those all over the world.

我们必须在世界各地寻找它们。

And there are many ways we can stop deforestation

我们有许多方法可以阻止毁林、

and stop this clearing of forest.

阻止这些森林砍伐。

We can work with Indigenous communities to protect their land into the future.

我们可以与土著社区合作 一直保护他们的土地。

We can clean up global supply chains.

我们可以清理全球供应链。

We can fix global carbon markets.

我们可以修复全球碳市场。

Many, many things we can do here.

我们可以在这里做很多很多事情。

We also have to improve farming methods

我们还必须改进耕作方式，

so we don’t emit as much from the farmer’s field.

这样农民的田地就不会 排放那么多温室气体。

We can blend a lot of different techniques here,

我们可以在这里融合许多不同的技术，

whether it borrows from organic agriculture or conventional

无论是借鉴有机农业、传统农业、

or precision ag or whatever.

精准农业或其他任何技术。

We can borrow lots of good ideas and find ways to reduce emissions.

我们可以借鉴很多好主意 找到减少排放的方法。

One of the things we'll have to do

我们必须要做的一件事是

is pay particular attention to fertilizers,

特别关注化肥，

because they're a big, big polluter,

因为它们是一个巨大的污染源，

not only to the atmosphere but also to water.

不仅污染大气，还污染水。

And some places in the world use way too much fertilizer,

世界上有些地方使用的化肥过多，

more than the crops could ever actually use.

超过了农作物实际需要的使用量。

And it turns out those areas shown in yellow

事实证明，在黄色显示的区域中

could dramatically lower their fertilizer use

可以在完全不影响产量的情况下

without affecting yields at all and improve emissions greatly.

大幅降低化肥的使用量 并极大地改善温室气体排放情况。

So there's some great opportunities here.

因此，这里有一些很好的机会。

And finally, we can fix the rest of the food system,

最后，我们可以 改善食品系统的其他环节，

whether it's in transportation,

无论是运输、

refrigeration, packaging, cooking food, all of that.

冷藏、包装或烹饪食品等等。

And together, we have a whole system of solutions

总的来说，我们拥有一整套解决方案

that improves efficiency,

可以提高效率，

protect ecosystems from being cleared,

保护生态系统免遭破坏，

improve the way we farm

改善我们的耕作方式

and improve the rest of the food system.

并改善食品系统的其余环节。

These are all put together as kind of an ensemble of solutions

所有这些组合在一起 形成一整套解决方案，

and it works really, really well.

效果真的非常好。

Beyond cutting emissions,

除了减少排放，

we can also remove some carbon in the food system as well.

我们还可以去除食品系统中的碳。

But just like other sectors,

但是就像其他行业一样，

we have to be a little bit careful about carbon removal.

我们必须谨慎对待碳去除措施。

It never takes the place of cutting emissions.

它永远无法取代减少排放措施。

Why?

为什么？

Well, in this case, because it starts off really, really small.

因为，这种方式所起的作用非常小。

All the carbon removal on land today

目前陆地上所有的碳去除量，

is less than a 10th of a percent in the ag system,

在农业系统中还不到 10%，

and we are emitting 22 percent.

而农业系统的排放量却达到 22%。

So it's small.

所以它的作用很小。

Also, there's a limit to how much we can store in soils and vegetation

此外，我在土壤和植被中

and how long we can store it.

储存碳的量和时间都是有限的。

So we have to be careful there.

因此我们必须对此保持谨慎。

And we also want to make sure

我们还应确保

we never distract from the real job

我们永远不会忘记

of cutting emissions in the first place.

减排工作应放在第一位。

But nevertheless, we have some great opportunities to cut emissions

尽管如此，我们仍有一些很好的机会

and remove carbon and add these two new pillars.

通过增加两个新的有效措施 来减少排放和去除碳。

For example, we can rewild old agricultural lands,

比如我们可以对旧的农业用地 进行生态修复，

bringing them back to nature,

让它们回归自然，

whether it's forests or prairies or coastal ecosystems,

无论是森林、草原还是沿海生态系统。

or we can practice regenerative agriculture on our working lands

或者我们可以在耕地上进行再生农业，

and build up soil carbon and vegetation cover

通过增加土壤碳储和植被覆盖，

in ways that store carbon,

以非常好的方式储存碳、

improve soil health,

改良土壤

and improve water quality in really great ways.

并改善水质。

So putting this all together,

综上所述，

we have an enormous toolbox of solutions.

我们有了一个庞大的解决方案工具箱。

First, cutting emissions

首先，通过生态修复和再生农业

and removing carbon through rewilding and regenerative agriculture.

减少排放和去除碳。

We have all these tools in this toolbox,

我们拥有工具箱里的所有工具

and we should use them as a kind of combined effort,

我们应将它们作为一种策略集合、

as a toolbox, as a portfolio.

一个工具箱以及一种投资组合进行使用。

Because there's no silver-bullet solution

因为根本没有灵丹妙药

to solving the food and climate dilemma at all.

可以解决食品和气候困境。

There just isn't one, I wish there was.

我希望有，但根本没有。

But what we have to do is use this whole portfolio of solutions,

但是我们要做的是 利用整个解决方案组合，

have them work together and find a way forward.

让它们协同工作并找到前进的道路。

So how are we going to move forward here?

那么我们将如何向前迈进呢？

Well, I think we actually have an incredible opportunity facing us today.

我认为我们今天面临着一个绝佳机会。

While the food and climate crisis is an enormous challenge, of course,

当然，尽管食品和气候危机 是一个巨大的挑战，

I also see it as an incredible opportunity.

我也将其视为一个难得的机会。

And that opportunity is to build an entirely better food system.

而这个机会就是 完全建立一个更好的食品体系。

We could have a food system that truly nourishes the world,

无论是现在还是未来，

today and into the future.

我们都可以拥有一个 真正滋养世界的食品系统。

We could have a food system that reduces pressure on nature

我们可以建立一个减轻自然压力

and even help restore some of it.

甚至有助于恢复自然生态的食品系统。

And we could have a food system that actually stops climate change.

我们本可以建立一个 真正阻止气候变化的食物系统。

That's entirely possible and at our fingertips today.

这是完全可能的，而且触手可及。

And we could do all of this at the same time.

我们可以同时做到这一切。

And what's so beautiful today is this is already possible.

最美妙的是，这已经成为可能。

None of this requires some new technology.

这一切都不需要新技术。

It requires us to change.

只需要我们做出改变。

That's it.

仅此而已。

And we just need to choose it.

我们只需要做出选择。

But if we do, we can follow the science,

如果我们这样做，我们就可以遵循科学，

and we can collaborate across this whole range of solutions

我们可以就整个解决方案进行合作，

and actually unlock a much better future.

并真正开启一个更美好的未来。

Thank you very much.

非常感谢。

(Applause)

（掌声）