Can we build AI without losing control over it? | Sam Harris

3,794,879 views ・ 2016-10-19

TED


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Prevoditelj: Stjepan Mateljan Recezent: Ivan Stamenković
Pričat ću vam o neuspjehu intuicije
00:13
I'm going to talk about a failure of intuition
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00:15
that many of us suffer from.
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koji pogađa brojne među nama.
00:17
It's really a failure to detect a certain kind of danger.
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To je zapravo neuspjeh uočavanja određene vrste opasnosti.
00:21
I'm going to describe a scenario
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Opisat ću scenarij
za koji smatram kako je jednako zastrašujuć
00:23
that I think is both terrifying
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00:26
and likely to occur,
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koliko i vjerojatan da se dogodi,
00:28
and that's not a good combination,
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a to nije dobra kombinacija,
00:30
as it turns out.
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kako se ispostavlja.
A ipak umjesto da budete prestrašeni, većina će vas osjećati
00:32
And yet rather than be scared, most of you will feel
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00:34
that what I'm talking about is kind of cool.
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kako je ono o čemu govorim nekako fora.
00:37
I'm going to describe how the gains we make
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Opisat ću kako bi nas dobici koje stvaramo
00:40
in artificial intelligence
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u umjetnoj inteligenciji (dalje: AI)
na kraju mogli uništiti.
00:42
could ultimately destroy us.
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00:43
And in fact, I think it's very difficult to see how they won't destroy us
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I zapravo, mislim ako je jako teško vidjeti kako nas oni neće uništiti
00:47
or inspire us to destroy ourselves.
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ili nas nadahnuti da se sami uništimo.
00:49
And yet if you're anything like me,
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Pa ipak ako ste imalo poput mene,
00:51
you'll find that it's fun to think about these things.
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naći ćete kako je zabavno razmišljati o ovim stvarima.
00:53
And that response is part of the problem.
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A taj je odgovor dio problema.
00:57
OK? That response should worry you.
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Ok? Taj bi vas odgovor trebao brinuti.
00:59
And if I were to convince you in this talk
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A ako bih vas uvjeravao ovim govorom
01:02
that we were likely to suffer a global famine,
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kako ćemo vjerojatno doživjeti globalnu glad,
bilo zbog klimatskih promjena ili neke druge katastrofe,
01:06
either because of climate change or some other catastrophe,
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te kako će vaši unuci, ili njihovi unuci,
01:09
and that your grandchildren, or their grandchildren,
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01:12
are very likely to live like this,
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vrlo vjerojatno živjeti ovako,
01:15
you wouldn't think,
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ne biste mislili:
01:17
"Interesting.
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"Zanimljivo.
01:18
I like this TED Talk."
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Sviđa mi se ovaj TED govor."
01:21
Famine isn't fun.
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Glad nije zabavna.
01:23
Death by science fiction, on the other hand, is fun,
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Smrt znanstvenom fantastikom, s druge strane, jest zabavna,
01:27
and one of the things that worries me most about the development of AI at this point
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a jedna od stvari koje me najviše brinu oko razvoja AI u ovom trenutku
01:31
is that we seem unable to marshal an appropriate emotional response
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je kako se činimo nesposobnim stvoriti prikladan emotivni odgovor
01:35
to the dangers that lie ahead.
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na opasnosti pred kojima se nalazimo.
Ja sam nesposoban stvorti taj odgovor, a držim ovaj govor.
01:37
I am unable to marshal this response, and I'm giving this talk.
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Ovo je kao da stojimo pred dvama vratima.
01:42
It's as though we stand before two doors.
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01:44
Behind door number one,
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Iza vrata broj jedan,
prestanemo stvarati napredak u izgradnji inteligentnih strojeva.
01:46
we stop making progress in building intelligent machines.
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01:49
Our computer hardware and software just stops getting better for some reason.
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Hardver se i softver naših računala samo iz nekog razloga prestane poboljšavati.
01:53
Now take a moment to consider why this might happen.
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Sad uzmite trenutak, razmislite zašto bi se to moglo dogoditi.
MIslim, uzevši kako su vrijedne inteligencija i automatizacija,
01:57
I mean, given how valuable intelligence and automation are,
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02:00
we will continue to improve our technology if we are at all able to.
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nastavit ćemo unaprijeđivati tehnologiju ako smo to ikako sposobni.
02:05
What could stop us from doing this?
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Što bi nas moglo zaustaviti u tome?
02:07
A full-scale nuclear war?
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Potpuni nuklearni rat?
Globalna pandemija?
02:11
A global pandemic?
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02:14
An asteroid impact?
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Udar asteroida?
02:17
Justin Bieber becoming president of the United States?
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Da Justin Bieber postane predsjednik Sjedinjenih država?
02:20
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
02:24
The point is, something would have to destroy civilization as we know it.
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Poanta je, nešto bi moralo uništiti civilizaciju kakvu znamo.
02:29
You have to imagine how bad it would have to be
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Morate zamisliti kako bi loše to moralo biti
02:33
to prevent us from making improvements in our technology
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da nas spriječi od pravljenja poboljšanja u našoj tehnologiji
trajno,
02:37
permanently,
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02:38
generation after generation.
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generaciju za generacijom.
02:40
Almost by definition, this is the worst thing
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Skoro po definiciji, to je najgora stvar
02:42
that's ever happened in human history.
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koja se ikad dogodila u ljudskoj povijesti.
02:44
So the only alternative,
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Dakle jedina alternativa,
02:45
and this is what lies behind door number two,
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a to je ono što leži iza vrata broj dva,
02:48
is that we continue to improve our intelligent machines
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je da nastavimo poboljšavati naše inteligentne strojeve
02:51
year after year after year.
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godinu za godinom za godinom.
02:53
At a certain point, we will build machines that are smarter than we are,
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U nekom trenutku, sagradit ćemo strojeve koji su pametniji od nas,
a jednom kad imamo strojeve koji su pametniji od nas,
02:58
and once we have machines that are smarter than we are,
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03:00
they will begin to improve themselves.
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oni će početi poboljšavati sami sebe.
03:02
And then we risk what the mathematician IJ Good called
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A tada risikiramo što je matematičar I.J. Good nazvao
03:05
an "intelligence explosion,"
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"eksplozijom inteligencije,"
03:07
that the process could get away from us.
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da bi nam se proces mogao izmaknuti.
Sad, to je često karikirano, kako imam ovdje,
03:10
Now, this is often caricatured, as I have here,
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03:12
as a fear that armies of malicious robots
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kao strah da će vojske zloćudnih robota
03:16
will attack us.
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udariti na nas.
03:17
But that isn't the most likely scenario.
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Ali to nije najvjerojatniji scenarij.
03:20
It's not that our machines will become spontaneously malevolent.
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Nije da će naši strojevi spontano postati zloćudnim.
Zapravo je briga kako ćemo izraditi strojeve
03:25
The concern is really that we will build machines
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03:27
that are so much more competent than we are
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koji su toliko sposobniji od nas
03:29
that the slightest divergence between their goals and our own
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da bi nas najmanje razmimoilaženje između njihovih i naših ciljeva
03:33
could destroy us.
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moglo uništiti.
03:35
Just think about how we relate to ants.
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Samo pomislite kako se odnosimo prema mravima.
03:38
We don't hate them.
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Ne mrzimo ih.
03:40
We don't go out of our way to harm them.
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Ne silazimo sa svog puta kako bismo im naudili.
03:42
In fact, sometimes we take pains not to harm them.
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Zapravo, ponekad se baš i trudimo kako im ne bismo naudili.
03:44
We step over them on the sidewalk.
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Prekoračimo ih na pločniku.
03:46
But whenever their presence
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Ali kad god sje njihova prisutnost
03:48
seriously conflicts with one of our goals,
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ozbiljno sukobi s nekim od naših ciljeva,
03:51
let's say when constructing a building like this one,
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recimo kad dižemo građevinu poput ove,
03:53
we annihilate them without a qualm.
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uništavamo ih bez pol muke.
03:56
The concern is that we will one day build machines
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Briga je kako ćemo jednog dana sagraditi strojeve
03:59
that, whether they're conscious or not,
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koji, bili oni svjesni ili ne,
04:02
could treat us with similar disregard.
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bi se mogli odnositi spram nas sa sličnim nehajem.
04:05
Now, I suspect this seems far-fetched to many of you.
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Sad, pretpostavljam kako vam se ovo doima nategnutim.
04:09
I bet there are those of you who doubt that superintelligent AI is possible,
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Kladim se kako vas ima koji sumnjate kako je superinteligentan AI moguć,
04:15
much less inevitable.
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a još manje neizbježan.
04:17
But then you must find something wrong with one of the following assumptions.
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Ali onda morate naći nešto krivo s nekom od slijedeći pretpostavki.
A samo ih je tri.
04:21
And there are only three of them.
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04:23
Intelligence is a matter of information processing in physical systems.
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Inteligencija je stvar obrade informacija u fizičkim sustavima.
04:29
Actually, this is a little bit more than an assumption.
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Zapravo, ovo je malo više od pretpostavke.
04:31
We have already built narrow intelligence into our machines,
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Već smo ugradili usku inteligenciju u naše strojeve,
04:35
and many of these machines perform
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i puno tih strojeva imaju izvedbu
04:37
at a level of superhuman intelligence already.
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na razini nadljudske inteligencije već sada.
04:40
And we know that mere matter
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I znamo kako puka materija
04:43
can give rise to what is called "general intelligence,"
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može omogućiti nastanak onog što nazivamo "opća inteligencija,"
sposobnost razmišljanja rastezljivog na višestruka područja,
04:46
an ability to think flexibly across multiple domains,
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04:49
because our brains have managed it. Right?
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jer to mogu naši mozgovi. U redu?
04:52
I mean, there's just atoms in here,
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Mislim, ovdje su samo atomi,
04:56
and as long as we continue to build systems of atoms
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i sve dok nastavimo graditi sustave atoma
05:01
that display more and more intelligent behavior,
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koji pokazuju sve više inteligentnog ponašanja
s vremenom ćemo, osim ako ne budemo ometeni,
05:04
we will eventually, unless we are interrupted,
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05:06
we will eventually build general intelligence
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s vremenom ćemo ugraditi opću inteligenciju
u naše strojeve.
05:10
into our machines.
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05:11
It's crucial to realize that the rate of progress doesn't matter,
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Ključno je shvatiti kako stopa napretka nije bitna,
jer će nas bilo kakav napredak dovesti u krajnju zonu.
05:15
because any progress is enough to get us into the end zone.
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05:18
We don't need Moore's law to continue. We don't need exponential progress.
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Ne trebamo nastavak Mooreovog zakona. Ne trebamo eksponencijalni rast.
Samo trebamo nastaviti napredovati.
05:22
We just need to keep going.
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05:25
The second assumption is that we will keep going.
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Druga je pretpostavka kako ćemo nastaviti napredovati.
Nastavit ćemo unapređivati naše inteligentne strojeve.
05:29
We will continue to improve our intelligent machines.
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A uzevši vrijednost inteligencije --
05:33
And given the value of intelligence --
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05:37
I mean, intelligence is either the source of everything we value
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Mislim, inteligencija je ili izvor svega što držimo vrijednim
05:40
or we need it to safeguard everything we value.
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ili je trebamo kako bi zaštitili sve što smatramo vrijednim.
05:43
It is our most valuable resource.
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Ona je naš najvredniji resurs.
Pa želimo to raditi.
05:46
So we want to do this.
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05:47
We have problems that we desperately need to solve.
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Imamo probleme koje očajnički trebamo riješiti.
05:50
We want to cure diseases like Alzheimer's and cancer.
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Želimo liječiti bolesti poput Alzheimera ili raka.
05:54
We want to understand economic systems. We want to improve our climate science.
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Želimo razumjeti ekonomske sustave. Želimo unaprijediti naše klimatske znanosti.
05:58
So we will do this, if we can.
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Pa ćemo to učiniti, ako možemo.
06:01
The train is already out of the station, and there's no brake to pull.
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Vlak je već napustio postaju a nema kočnice za povući.
06:05
Finally, we don't stand on a peak of intelligence,
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Konačno, ne stojimo na vrhuncu inteligencije,
06:11
or anywhere near it, likely.
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ili igdje blizu njega, vjerojatno.
06:13
And this really is the crucial insight.
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A to je zbilja ključan uvid.
06:15
This is what makes our situation so precarious,
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To je ono što čini našu situaciju tako neizvjesnom,
i to je ono što čini naše intuicije o riziku tako nepouzdanim.
06:18
and this is what makes our intuitions about risk so unreliable.
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Sad, samo razmotrite najpametniju osobu koja je ikad živjela.
06:23
Now, just consider the smartest person who has ever lived.
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06:26
On almost everyone's shortlist here is John von Neumann.
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U gotovo svačijem užem izboru ovdje je John von Neumann.
Mislim, utisak koji je von Neumann ostavljao na ljude oko sebe,
06:30
I mean, the impression that von Neumann made on the people around him,
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06:33
and this included the greatest mathematicians and physicists of his time,
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a ti uključuju najveće matematičare i fizičare njegovog doba,
06:37
is fairly well-documented.
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je dobro dokumentirana.
06:39
If only half the stories about him are half true,
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Ako je samo pola priča o njemu na pola istinito,
06:43
there's no question
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nema pitanja
06:44
he's one of the smartest people who has ever lived.
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on je jedna od najpametnijih osoba koje su ikad živjele.
Pa razmotrite spektar inteligencije.
06:47
So consider the spectrum of intelligence.
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06:50
Here we have John von Neumann.
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Ovdje imamo John von Neumanna.
06:53
And then we have you and me.
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A onda imamo vas i mene.
A onda imamo piceka.
06:56
And then we have a chicken.
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06:57
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
06:59
Sorry, a chicken.
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Pardon, piceka.
07:00
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
07:01
There's no reason for me to make this talk more depressing than it needs to be.
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Nema razloga da učinim ovaj govor depresivnijem nego što mora biti.
07:05
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
07:08
It seems overwhelmingly likely, however, that the spectrum of intelligence
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Izgleda premoćno vjerojatno, međutim, kako se spektar inteligencije
07:11
extends much further than we currently conceive,
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proteže puno dalje nego što trenutno poimamo,
07:15
and if we build machines that are more intelligent than we are,
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i ako sagradimo strojeve koji su inteligentniji od nas,
oni će vrlo vjerojatno istražiti ovaj spektar
07:19
they will very likely explore this spectrum
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07:21
in ways that we can't imagine,
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na načine koje ne možemo zamisliti,
07:23
and exceed us in ways that we can't imagine.
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te nas nadmašiti na načine koje ne možemo zamisliti.
A bitno je prepoznati kako je to istinito već po samom svojstvu brzine.
07:27
And it's important to recognize that this is true by virtue of speed alone.
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07:31
Right? So imagine if we just built a superintelligent AI
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U redu? Zamislite kako smo upravo sagradili superinteligentan AI
07:36
that was no smarter than your average team of researchers
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koji nije pametniji od vašeg prosječnog tima istraživača
07:39
at Stanford or MIT.
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na Stanfordu ili MIT-u.
07:42
Well, electronic circuits function about a million times faster
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Dobro, elektronički krugovi rade oko milijun puta brže
07:45
than biochemical ones,
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od onih biokemijskih,
07:46
so this machine should think about a million times faster
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pa bi ovaj stroj trebao razmišljati oko milijun puta brže
07:49
than the minds that built it.
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od umova koji su ga sagradili.
07:51
So you set it running for a week,
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Pa ga pustite raditi tjedan dana,
07:53
and it will perform 20,000 years of human-level intellectual work,
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a on će izvesti 20.000 godina intelektualnog rada ljudske razine,
07:58
week after week after week.
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tjedan za tjednom za tjednom.
08:01
How could we even understand, much less constrain,
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Kako bi uopće mogli razumjeti, puno manje ograničiti,
08:04
a mind making this sort of progress?
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um koji stvara ovu vrst napretka?
08:08
The other thing that's worrying, frankly,
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Druga stvar koja je zabrinjavajuća, iskreno,
je kako, zamislite najbolji scenarij.
08:11
is that, imagine the best case scenario.
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dakle zamislite kako pogodimo dizajn superinteligentne AI
08:16
So imagine we hit upon a design of superintelligent AI
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08:20
that has no safety concerns.
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koji nema sigurnosnih problema.
08:21
We have the perfect design the first time around.
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Imamo savršen dizajn iz prve.
08:24
It's as though we've been handed an oracle
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Kao da nam je dano proročanstvo
koje se ponaša posve kako bi i trebalo.
08:27
that behaves exactly as intended.
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Dobro, taj bi stroj bio savršena naprava za uštedu rada.
08:29
Well, this machine would be the perfect labor-saving device.
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08:33
It can design the machine that can build the machine
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Može dizajnirati stroj koji može izraditi stroj
koji može obavljati svaki fizički rad,
08:36
that can do any physical work,
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08:37
powered by sunlight,
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pogonjen sunčanom svjetlošću,
08:39
more or less for the cost of raw materials.
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manje ili više po cijeni sirovog materijala.
Dakle pričamo o kraju ljudske tlake.
08:42
So we're talking about the end of human drudgery.
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08:45
We're also talking about the end of most intellectual work.
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Također pričamo o kraju većine intelektualnog rada.
08:49
So what would apes like ourselves do in this circumstance?
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Pa što bi majmuni poput nas činili u takvim okolnostima?
08:52
Well, we'd be free to play Frisbee and give each other massages.
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Ok, bili bi slobodni igrati frizbi i masirati se međusobno.
08:57
Add some LSD and some questionable wardrobe choices,
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Dodajte nešto LSD i nešto upitnih odluka oko odjeće,
09:00
and the whole world could be like Burning Man.
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i cijeli bi svijet mogao biti poput Burning Mana.
09:02
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
09:06
Now, that might sound pretty good,
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Sad, to može zvučati prilično dobro,
09:09
but ask yourself what would happen
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ali pitajte se što bi se dogodilo
09:11
under our current economic and political order?
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pod našim trenutnim ekonomskim i političkim poretkom?
09:14
It seems likely that we would witness
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Čini se vjerojatnim kako bismo svjedočili
09:16
a level of wealth inequality and unemployment
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razini nejednakosti u bogatstvu te nezaposlenosti
kakvu nismo vidjeli nikad prije.
09:21
that we have never seen before.
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09:22
Absent a willingness to immediately put this new wealth
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Bez volje za trenutnim stavljanjem tog novog bogatstva
09:25
to the service of all humanity,
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u službu svog čovječanstva,
09:27
a few trillionaires could grace the covers of our business magazines
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nekoliko bi trilijunaša moglo resiti naslovnice naših poslovni časopisa
09:31
while the rest of the world would be free to starve.
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dok bi ostatak svijeta bio slobodan gladovati.
09:34
And what would the Russians or the Chinese do
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A što bi Rusi ili Kinezi učinili
09:36
if they heard that some company in Silicon Valley
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ako bi čuli kako se neka kompanija u Silicijskoj dolini
09:39
was about to deploy a superintelligent AI?
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upravo sprema izbaciti superinteligentnu AI?
Taj bi stroj bio sposoban voditi rat,
09:42
This machine would be capable of waging war,
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09:44
whether terrestrial or cyber,
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bilo zemaljski ili cyber,
sa neviđenom moći.
09:47
with unprecedented power.
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Ovo je scenarij gdje pobjednik dobija sve.
09:50
This is a winner-take-all scenario.
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Biti šest mjeseci ispred konkurencije ovdje
09:52
To be six months ahead of the competition here
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je biti 500.000 godina ispred,
09:55
is to be 500,000 years ahead,
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09:57
at a minimum.
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minimalno.
09:59
So it seems that even mere rumors of this kind of breakthrough
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Pa se čini kako bi čak i puke glasine o ovakvoj vrsti probitka
10:04
could cause our species to go berserk.
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mogle prouzročiti našu vrstu da poludi.
10:06
Now, one of the most frightening things,
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Sad, jedna od najviše zastrašujućih stvari,
10:09
in my view, at this moment,
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kako ja to vidim, u ovom trenutku,
10:12
are the kinds of things that AI researchers say
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su stvari koje istraživači AI govore
10:16
when they want to be reassuring.
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kada žele biti ohrabrujući.
A najčešći razlog za bezbrižnost koji navode je vrijeme.
10:19
And the most common reason we're told not to worry is time.
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10:22
This is all a long way off, don't you know.
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To je sve daleko, ne znaš li?
10:24
This is probably 50 or 100 years away.
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To je vjerojatno 50 ili 100 godina od nas.
10:27
One researcher has said,
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Jedan je istraživač rekao:
"Brinuti se oko sigurnosti AI
10:29
"Worrying about AI safety
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10:30
is like worrying about overpopulation on Mars."
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je poput brige o prekomjernoj populaciji na Marsu."
To je verzija iz Silicijske doline
10:34
This is the Silicon Valley version
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10:35
of "don't worry your pretty little head about it."
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one: "nemoj brinuti svoju lijepu malu glavu sa time."
(Smijeh)
10:38
(Laughter)
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10:39
No one seems to notice
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Izgleda kako nitko ne primjećuje
10:41
that referencing the time horizon
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kako je oslanjanje na vremenski horizont
potpuni non sequitur.
10:44
is a total non sequitur.
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10:46
If intelligence is just a matter of information processing,
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Ako je inteligencija samo pitanje procesiranja informacija,
10:49
and we continue to improve our machines,
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te ako nastavimo unapređivati naše strojeve,
10:52
we will produce some form of superintelligence.
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stvorit ćemo neki oblik superinteligencije.
10:56
And we have no idea how long it will take us
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A nemamo pojma koliko će nam dugo trebati
stvoriti uvjete kako bismo to učinili sigurno.
11:00
to create the conditions to do that safely.
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11:04
Let me say that again.
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Dajte da to kažem ponovo.
11:05
We have no idea how long it will take us
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Nemamo pojma koliko će nam dugo trebati
11:09
to create the conditions to do that safely.
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stvoriti uvjete kako bismo to učinili sigurno.
11:12
And if you haven't noticed, 50 years is not what it used to be.
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A ako niste primijetili, 50 godina nije što je nekad bilo.
11:16
This is 50 years in months.
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Ovo je 50 godina u mjesecima.
11:18
This is how long we've had the iPhone.
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Ovo je koliko dugo imamo iPhone.
11:21
This is how long "The Simpsons" has been on television.
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Ovo je koliko dugo su "Simpsoni" na televiziji.
11:24
Fifty years is not that much time
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Pedeset godina nije tako puno vremena
za sučeliti se sa jednim od najvećih izazova koje će naša vrsta ikad imati.
11:27
to meet one of the greatest challenges our species will ever face.
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11:31
Once again, we seem to be failing to have an appropriate emotional response
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Još jednom, izgleda da ne uspijevamo imati prikladan emotivni odgovor
11:35
to what we have every reason to believe is coming.
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za što imamo svaki razlog vjerovati kako dolazi.
11:38
The computer scientist Stuart Russell has a nice analogy here.
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Računalni znanstvenik Stuart Russell ovdje pravi zgodnu analogiju.
11:42
He said, imagine that we received a message from an alien civilization,
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On kaže, zamislite kako smo primili poruku od vanzemaljske civilizacije,
11:47
which read:
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koja piše:
"Ljudi Zemlje,
11:49
"People of Earth,
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11:50
we will arrive on your planet in 50 years.
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stići ćemo na vaš planet za 50 godina.
11:53
Get ready."
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Pripremite se."
11:55
And now we're just counting down the months until the mothership lands?
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I sad mi samo brojimo mjesece dok matični brod ne sleti?
11:59
We would feel a little more urgency than we do.
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Osjećali bismo malo veću hitnost nego što osjećamo.
12:04
Another reason we're told not to worry
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Još jedan razlog što nam govore da ne brinemo
12:06
is that these machines can't help but share our values
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je kako si ti strojevi ne mogu pomoći da ne dijele naše vrijednosti
12:09
because they will be literally extensions of ourselves.
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jer će doslovno biti produžeci nas samih.
12:12
They'll be grafted onto our brains,
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Bit će usađeni u naše mozgove,
a mi ćemo u biti postati njihov limbički sustav.
12:14
and we'll essentially become their limbic systems.
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sad uzmite trenutak pa razmislite
12:17
Now take a moment to consider
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12:18
that the safest and only prudent path forward,
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kako je najsigurniji i jedini razborit put naprijed,
12:21
recommended,
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preporučeno,
ugraditi tu tehnologiju izravno u naše mozgove.
12:23
is to implant this technology directly into our brains.
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12:26
Now, this may in fact be the safest and only prudent path forward,
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Sad, to može zapravo biti najsigurniji i jedini razborit put nparijed,
ali obično sigurnosni problemi oko tehnologije
12:30
but usually one's safety concerns about a technology
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moraju biti manje više izglađeni prije nego ju zabijete u vlastitu glavu.
12:33
have to be pretty much worked out before you stick it inside your head.
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12:36
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
12:38
The deeper problem is that building superintelligent AI on its own
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Dublji je problem što se izgradnja superinteligentne AI
čini vjerojatno lakšim
12:44
seems likely to be easier
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12:45
than building superintelligent AI
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nego izgradnja superinteligentne AI
12:47
and having the completed neuroscience
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i imanje zaokružene neuroznanosti
12:49
that allows us to seamlessly integrate our minds with it.
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koja nam omogućuje da ju glatko integriramo s našim umovima.
12:52
And given that the companies and governments doing this work
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A uzevši kako će kompanije i vlade koje se bave ovim poslom
vjerojatno percipirati kako su u utrci protiv svih ostalih,
12:56
are likely to perceive themselves as being in a race against all others,
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12:59
given that to win this race is to win the world,
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uzevši kako je osvojiti ovu utrku isto što i osvojiti svijet,
13:02
provided you don't destroy it in the next moment,
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pod pretpostavkom kako ga nećete uništiti u slijedećem trenutku,
13:05
then it seems likely that whatever is easier to do
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onda se čini vjerojatnim kako će što god je lakše učiniti
biti učinjeno prvo.
13:08
will get done first.
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13:10
Now, unfortunately, I don't have a solution to this problem,
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Sad, na nesreću, nemam rješenje za ovaj problem,
13:13
apart from recommending that more of us think about it.
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osim preporučiti kako bi više nas trebalo razmišljati o njemu.
Mislim kako trebamo nešto poput Manhattan Projecta
13:16
I think we need something like a Manhattan Project
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13:18
on the topic of artificial intelligence.
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po pitanju umjetne inteligencije.
13:20
Not to build it, because I think we'll inevitably do that,
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Ne kako bismo je stvorili, jer ćemo to neizbježno napraviti,
13:23
but to understand how to avoid an arms race
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već kako bismo razumjeli kako izbjeći utrku u naoružanju
13:26
and to build it in a way that is aligned with our interests.
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te kako ju sagraditi na način koji se podudara s našim interesima.
Kad pričate o superinteligentnoj AI
13:30
When you're talking about superintelligent AI
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13:32
that can make changes to itself,
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koja može raditi preinake sebi samoj,
13:34
it seems that we only have one chance to get the initial conditions right,
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čini se kako imamo samo jednu priliku za posložiti ispravne početne uvjete,
13:39
and even then we will need to absorb
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a čak i tada ćemo trebati upiti
13:41
the economic and political consequences of getting them right.
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ekonomske i političke posljedice slaganja takvih uvjeta.
13:45
But the moment we admit
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Ali trenutak u kojem priznamo
13:47
that information processing is the source of intelligence,
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kako je obrada informacija izvor inteligencije,
13:52
that some appropriate computational system is what the basis of intelligence is,
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kako je neki prikladan račualni sustav ono na čemu se inteligencija temelji,
13:58
and we admit that we will improve these systems continuously,
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te priznamo kako ćemo trajno unaprijeđivati te sustave,
14:03
and we admit that the horizon of cognition very likely far exceeds
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te priznamo kako horizont spoznaje vrlo vjerojatno daleko premašuje
14:07
what we currently know,
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što trenutno znamo,
onda moramo priznati
14:10
then we have to admit
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14:11
that we are in the process of building some sort of god.
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kako smo u postupku izgradnje neke vrste boga.
14:15
Now would be a good time
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Sad bi bilo dobro vrijeme
osigurati da to bude bog s kakvim možemo živjeti.
14:17
to make sure it's a god we can live with.
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Hvala Vam puno.
14:20
Thank you very much.
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14:21
(Applause)
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(Pljesak)
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