Can we build AI without losing control over it? | Sam Harris

3,798,930 views ・ 2016-10-19

TED


Dvaput kliknite na engleske titlove ispod za reprodukciju videozapisa.

Prevoditelj: Stjepan Mateljan Recezent: Ivan Stamenković
Pričat ću vam o neuspjehu intuicije
00:13
I'm going to talk about a failure of intuition
0
13000
2216
00:15
that many of us suffer from.
1
15240
1600
koji pogađa brojne među nama.
00:17
It's really a failure to detect a certain kind of danger.
2
17480
3040
To je zapravo neuspjeh uočavanja određene vrste opasnosti.
00:21
I'm going to describe a scenario
3
21360
1736
Opisat ću scenarij
za koji smatram kako je jednako zastrašujuć
00:23
that I think is both terrifying
4
23120
3256
00:26
and likely to occur,
5
26400
1760
koliko i vjerojatan da se dogodi,
00:28
and that's not a good combination,
6
28840
1656
a to nije dobra kombinacija,
00:30
as it turns out.
7
30520
1536
kako se ispostavlja.
A ipak umjesto da budete prestrašeni, većina će vas osjećati
00:32
And yet rather than be scared, most of you will feel
8
32080
2456
00:34
that what I'm talking about is kind of cool.
9
34560
2080
kako je ono o čemu govorim nekako fora.
00:37
I'm going to describe how the gains we make
10
37200
2976
Opisat ću kako bi nas dobici koje stvaramo
00:40
in artificial intelligence
11
40200
1776
u umjetnoj inteligenciji (dalje: AI)
na kraju mogli uništiti.
00:42
could ultimately destroy us.
12
42000
1776
00:43
And in fact, I think it's very difficult to see how they won't destroy us
13
43800
3456
I zapravo, mislim ako je jako teško vidjeti kako nas oni neće uništiti
00:47
or inspire us to destroy ourselves.
14
47280
1680
ili nas nadahnuti da se sami uništimo.
00:49
And yet if you're anything like me,
15
49400
1856
Pa ipak ako ste imalo poput mene,
00:51
you'll find that it's fun to think about these things.
16
51280
2656
naći ćete kako je zabavno razmišljati o ovim stvarima.
00:53
And that response is part of the problem.
17
53960
3376
A taj je odgovor dio problema.
00:57
OK? That response should worry you.
18
57360
1720
Ok? Taj bi vas odgovor trebao brinuti.
00:59
And if I were to convince you in this talk
19
59920
2656
A ako bih vas uvjeravao ovim govorom
01:02
that we were likely to suffer a global famine,
20
62600
3416
kako ćemo vjerojatno doživjeti globalnu glad,
bilo zbog klimatskih promjena ili neke druge katastrofe,
01:06
either because of climate change or some other catastrophe,
21
66040
3056
te kako će vaši unuci, ili njihovi unuci,
01:09
and that your grandchildren, or their grandchildren,
22
69120
3416
01:12
are very likely to live like this,
23
72560
1800
vrlo vjerojatno živjeti ovako,
01:15
you wouldn't think,
24
75200
1200
ne biste mislili:
01:17
"Interesting.
25
77440
1336
"Zanimljivo.
01:18
I like this TED Talk."
26
78800
1200
Sviđa mi se ovaj TED govor."
01:21
Famine isn't fun.
27
81200
1520
Glad nije zabavna.
01:23
Death by science fiction, on the other hand, is fun,
28
83800
3376
Smrt znanstvenom fantastikom, s druge strane, jest zabavna,
01:27
and one of the things that worries me most about the development of AI at this point
29
87200
3976
a jedna od stvari koje me najviše brinu oko razvoja AI u ovom trenutku
01:31
is that we seem unable to marshal an appropriate emotional response
30
91200
4096
je kako se činimo nesposobnim stvoriti prikladan emotivni odgovor
01:35
to the dangers that lie ahead.
31
95320
1816
na opasnosti pred kojima se nalazimo.
Ja sam nesposoban stvorti taj odgovor, a držim ovaj govor.
01:37
I am unable to marshal this response, and I'm giving this talk.
32
97160
3200
Ovo je kao da stojimo pred dvama vratima.
01:42
It's as though we stand before two doors.
33
102120
2696
01:44
Behind door number one,
34
104840
1256
Iza vrata broj jedan,
prestanemo stvarati napredak u izgradnji inteligentnih strojeva.
01:46
we stop making progress in building intelligent machines.
35
106120
3296
01:49
Our computer hardware and software just stops getting better for some reason.
36
109440
4016
Hardver se i softver naših računala samo iz nekog razloga prestane poboljšavati.
01:53
Now take a moment to consider why this might happen.
37
113480
3000
Sad uzmite trenutak, razmislite zašto bi se to moglo dogoditi.
MIslim, uzevši kako su vrijedne inteligencija i automatizacija,
01:57
I mean, given how valuable intelligence and automation are,
38
117080
3656
02:00
we will continue to improve our technology if we are at all able to.
39
120760
3520
nastavit ćemo unaprijeđivati tehnologiju ako smo to ikako sposobni.
02:05
What could stop us from doing this?
40
125200
1667
Što bi nas moglo zaustaviti u tome?
02:07
A full-scale nuclear war?
41
127800
1800
Potpuni nuklearni rat?
Globalna pandemija?
02:11
A global pandemic?
42
131000
1560
02:14
An asteroid impact?
43
134320
1320
Udar asteroida?
02:17
Justin Bieber becoming president of the United States?
44
137640
2576
Da Justin Bieber postane predsjednik Sjedinjenih država?
02:20
(Laughter)
45
140240
2280
(Smijeh)
02:24
The point is, something would have to destroy civilization as we know it.
46
144760
3920
Poanta je, nešto bi moralo uništiti civilizaciju kakvu znamo.
02:29
You have to imagine how bad it would have to be
47
149360
4296
Morate zamisliti kako bi loše to moralo biti
02:33
to prevent us from making improvements in our technology
48
153680
3336
da nas spriječi od pravljenja poboljšanja u našoj tehnologiji
trajno,
02:37
permanently,
49
157040
1216
02:38
generation after generation.
50
158280
2016
generaciju za generacijom.
02:40
Almost by definition, this is the worst thing
51
160320
2136
Skoro po definiciji, to je najgora stvar
02:42
that's ever happened in human history.
52
162480
2016
koja se ikad dogodila u ljudskoj povijesti.
02:44
So the only alternative,
53
164520
1296
Dakle jedina alternativa,
02:45
and this is what lies behind door number two,
54
165840
2336
a to je ono što leži iza vrata broj dva,
02:48
is that we continue to improve our intelligent machines
55
168200
3136
je da nastavimo poboljšavati naše inteligentne strojeve
02:51
year after year after year.
56
171360
1600
godinu za godinom za godinom.
02:53
At a certain point, we will build machines that are smarter than we are,
57
173720
3640
U nekom trenutku, sagradit ćemo strojeve koji su pametniji od nas,
a jednom kad imamo strojeve koji su pametniji od nas,
02:58
and once we have machines that are smarter than we are,
58
178080
2616
03:00
they will begin to improve themselves.
59
180720
1976
oni će početi poboljšavati sami sebe.
03:02
And then we risk what the mathematician IJ Good called
60
182720
2736
A tada risikiramo što je matematičar I.J. Good nazvao
03:05
an "intelligence explosion,"
61
185480
1776
"eksplozijom inteligencije,"
03:07
that the process could get away from us.
62
187280
2000
da bi nam se proces mogao izmaknuti.
Sad, to je često karikirano, kako imam ovdje,
03:10
Now, this is often caricatured, as I have here,
63
190120
2816
03:12
as a fear that armies of malicious robots
64
192960
3216
kao strah da će vojske zloćudnih robota
03:16
will attack us.
65
196200
1256
udariti na nas.
03:17
But that isn't the most likely scenario.
66
197480
2696
Ali to nije najvjerojatniji scenarij.
03:20
It's not that our machines will become spontaneously malevolent.
67
200200
4856
Nije da će naši strojevi spontano postati zloćudnim.
Zapravo je briga kako ćemo izraditi strojeve
03:25
The concern is really that we will build machines
68
205080
2616
03:27
that are so much more competent than we are
69
207720
2056
koji su toliko sposobniji od nas
03:29
that the slightest divergence between their goals and our own
70
209800
3776
da bi nas najmanje razmimoilaženje između njihovih i naših ciljeva
03:33
could destroy us.
71
213600
1200
moglo uništiti.
03:35
Just think about how we relate to ants.
72
215960
2080
Samo pomislite kako se odnosimo prema mravima.
03:38
We don't hate them.
73
218600
1656
Ne mrzimo ih.
03:40
We don't go out of our way to harm them.
74
220280
2056
Ne silazimo sa svog puta kako bismo im naudili.
03:42
In fact, sometimes we take pains not to harm them.
75
222360
2376
Zapravo, ponekad se baš i trudimo kako im ne bismo naudili.
03:44
We step over them on the sidewalk.
76
224760
2016
Prekoračimo ih na pločniku.
03:46
But whenever their presence
77
226800
2136
Ali kad god sje njihova prisutnost
03:48
seriously conflicts with one of our goals,
78
228960
2496
ozbiljno sukobi s nekim od naših ciljeva,
03:51
let's say when constructing a building like this one,
79
231480
2477
recimo kad dižemo građevinu poput ove,
03:53
we annihilate them without a qualm.
80
233981
1960
uništavamo ih bez pol muke.
03:56
The concern is that we will one day build machines
81
236480
2936
Briga je kako ćemo jednog dana sagraditi strojeve
03:59
that, whether they're conscious or not,
82
239440
2736
koji, bili oni svjesni ili ne,
04:02
could treat us with similar disregard.
83
242200
2000
bi se mogli odnositi spram nas sa sličnim nehajem.
04:05
Now, I suspect this seems far-fetched to many of you.
84
245760
2760
Sad, pretpostavljam kako vam se ovo doima nategnutim.
04:09
I bet there are those of you who doubt that superintelligent AI is possible,
85
249360
6336
Kladim se kako vas ima koji sumnjate kako je superinteligentan AI moguć,
04:15
much less inevitable.
86
255720
1656
a još manje neizbježan.
04:17
But then you must find something wrong with one of the following assumptions.
87
257400
3620
Ali onda morate naći nešto krivo s nekom od slijedeći pretpostavki.
A samo ih je tri.
04:21
And there are only three of them.
88
261044
1572
04:23
Intelligence is a matter of information processing in physical systems.
89
263800
4719
Inteligencija je stvar obrade informacija u fizičkim sustavima.
04:29
Actually, this is a little bit more than an assumption.
90
269320
2615
Zapravo, ovo je malo više od pretpostavke.
04:31
We have already built narrow intelligence into our machines,
91
271959
3457
Već smo ugradili usku inteligenciju u naše strojeve,
04:35
and many of these machines perform
92
275440
2016
i puno tih strojeva imaju izvedbu
04:37
at a level of superhuman intelligence already.
93
277480
2640
na razini nadljudske inteligencije već sada.
04:40
And we know that mere matter
94
280840
2576
I znamo kako puka materija
04:43
can give rise to what is called "general intelligence,"
95
283440
2616
može omogućiti nastanak onog što nazivamo "opća inteligencija,"
sposobnost razmišljanja rastezljivog na višestruka područja,
04:46
an ability to think flexibly across multiple domains,
96
286080
3656
04:49
because our brains have managed it. Right?
97
289760
3136
jer to mogu naši mozgovi. U redu?
04:52
I mean, there's just atoms in here,
98
292920
3936
Mislim, ovdje su samo atomi,
04:56
and as long as we continue to build systems of atoms
99
296880
4496
i sve dok nastavimo graditi sustave atoma
05:01
that display more and more intelligent behavior,
100
301400
2696
koji pokazuju sve više inteligentnog ponašanja
s vremenom ćemo, osim ako ne budemo ometeni,
05:04
we will eventually, unless we are interrupted,
101
304120
2536
05:06
we will eventually build general intelligence
102
306680
3376
s vremenom ćemo ugraditi opću inteligenciju
u naše strojeve.
05:10
into our machines.
103
310080
1296
05:11
It's crucial to realize that the rate of progress doesn't matter,
104
311400
3656
Ključno je shvatiti kako stopa napretka nije bitna,
jer će nas bilo kakav napredak dovesti u krajnju zonu.
05:15
because any progress is enough to get us into the end zone.
105
315080
3176
05:18
We don't need Moore's law to continue. We don't need exponential progress.
106
318280
3776
Ne trebamo nastavak Mooreovog zakona. Ne trebamo eksponencijalni rast.
Samo trebamo nastaviti napredovati.
05:22
We just need to keep going.
107
322080
1600
05:25
The second assumption is that we will keep going.
108
325480
2920
Druga je pretpostavka kako ćemo nastaviti napredovati.
Nastavit ćemo unapređivati naše inteligentne strojeve.
05:29
We will continue to improve our intelligent machines.
109
329000
2760
A uzevši vrijednost inteligencije --
05:33
And given the value of intelligence --
110
333000
4376
05:37
I mean, intelligence is either the source of everything we value
111
337400
3536
Mislim, inteligencija je ili izvor svega što držimo vrijednim
05:40
or we need it to safeguard everything we value.
112
340960
2776
ili je trebamo kako bi zaštitili sve što smatramo vrijednim.
05:43
It is our most valuable resource.
113
343760
2256
Ona je naš najvredniji resurs.
Pa želimo to raditi.
05:46
So we want to do this.
114
346040
1536
05:47
We have problems that we desperately need to solve.
115
347600
3336
Imamo probleme koje očajnički trebamo riješiti.
05:50
We want to cure diseases like Alzheimer's and cancer.
116
350960
3200
Želimo liječiti bolesti poput Alzheimera ili raka.
05:54
We want to understand economic systems. We want to improve our climate science.
117
354960
3936
Želimo razumjeti ekonomske sustave. Želimo unaprijediti naše klimatske znanosti.
05:58
So we will do this, if we can.
118
358920
2256
Pa ćemo to učiniti, ako možemo.
06:01
The train is already out of the station, and there's no brake to pull.
119
361200
3286
Vlak je već napustio postaju a nema kočnice za povući.
06:05
Finally, we don't stand on a peak of intelligence,
120
365880
5456
Konačno, ne stojimo na vrhuncu inteligencije,
06:11
or anywhere near it, likely.
121
371360
1800
ili igdje blizu njega, vjerojatno.
06:13
And this really is the crucial insight.
122
373640
1896
A to je zbilja ključan uvid.
06:15
This is what makes our situation so precarious,
123
375560
2416
To je ono što čini našu situaciju tako neizvjesnom,
i to je ono što čini naše intuicije o riziku tako nepouzdanim.
06:18
and this is what makes our intuitions about risk so unreliable.
124
378000
4040
Sad, samo razmotrite najpametniju osobu koja je ikad živjela.
06:23
Now, just consider the smartest person who has ever lived.
125
383120
2720
06:26
On almost everyone's shortlist here is John von Neumann.
126
386640
3416
U gotovo svačijem užem izboru ovdje je John von Neumann.
Mislim, utisak koji je von Neumann ostavljao na ljude oko sebe,
06:30
I mean, the impression that von Neumann made on the people around him,
127
390080
3336
06:33
and this included the greatest mathematicians and physicists of his time,
128
393440
4056
a ti uključuju najveće matematičare i fizičare njegovog doba,
06:37
is fairly well-documented.
129
397520
1936
je dobro dokumentirana.
06:39
If only half the stories about him are half true,
130
399480
3776
Ako je samo pola priča o njemu na pola istinito,
06:43
there's no question
131
403280
1216
nema pitanja
06:44
he's one of the smartest people who has ever lived.
132
404520
2456
on je jedna od najpametnijih osoba koje su ikad živjele.
Pa razmotrite spektar inteligencije.
06:47
So consider the spectrum of intelligence.
133
407000
2520
06:50
Here we have John von Neumann.
134
410320
1429
Ovdje imamo John von Neumanna.
06:53
And then we have you and me.
135
413560
1334
A onda imamo vas i mene.
A onda imamo piceka.
06:56
And then we have a chicken.
136
416120
1296
06:57
(Laughter)
137
417440
1936
(Smijeh)
06:59
Sorry, a chicken.
138
419400
1216
Pardon, piceka.
07:00
(Laughter)
139
420640
1256
(Smijeh)
07:01
There's no reason for me to make this talk more depressing than it needs to be.
140
421920
3736
Nema razloga da učinim ovaj govor depresivnijem nego što mora biti.
07:05
(Laughter)
141
425680
1600
(Smijeh)
07:08
It seems overwhelmingly likely, however, that the spectrum of intelligence
142
428339
3477
Izgleda premoćno vjerojatno, međutim, kako se spektar inteligencije
07:11
extends much further than we currently conceive,
143
431840
3120
proteže puno dalje nego što trenutno poimamo,
07:15
and if we build machines that are more intelligent than we are,
144
435880
3216
i ako sagradimo strojeve koji su inteligentniji od nas,
oni će vrlo vjerojatno istražiti ovaj spektar
07:19
they will very likely explore this spectrum
145
439120
2296
07:21
in ways that we can't imagine,
146
441440
1856
na načine koje ne možemo zamisliti,
07:23
and exceed us in ways that we can't imagine.
147
443320
2520
te nas nadmašiti na načine koje ne možemo zamisliti.
A bitno je prepoznati kako je to istinito već po samom svojstvu brzine.
07:27
And it's important to recognize that this is true by virtue of speed alone.
148
447000
4336
07:31
Right? So imagine if we just built a superintelligent AI
149
451360
5056
U redu? Zamislite kako smo upravo sagradili superinteligentan AI
07:36
that was no smarter than your average team of researchers
150
456440
3456
koji nije pametniji od vašeg prosječnog tima istraživača
07:39
at Stanford or MIT.
151
459920
2296
na Stanfordu ili MIT-u.
07:42
Well, electronic circuits function about a million times faster
152
462240
2976
Dobro, elektronički krugovi rade oko milijun puta brže
07:45
than biochemical ones,
153
465240
1256
od onih biokemijskih,
07:46
so this machine should think about a million times faster
154
466520
3136
pa bi ovaj stroj trebao razmišljati oko milijun puta brže
07:49
than the minds that built it.
155
469680
1816
od umova koji su ga sagradili.
07:51
So you set it running for a week,
156
471520
1656
Pa ga pustite raditi tjedan dana,
07:53
and it will perform 20,000 years of human-level intellectual work,
157
473200
4560
a on će izvesti 20.000 godina intelektualnog rada ljudske razine,
07:58
week after week after week.
158
478400
1960
tjedan za tjednom za tjednom.
08:01
How could we even understand, much less constrain,
159
481640
3096
Kako bi uopće mogli razumjeti, puno manje ograničiti,
08:04
a mind making this sort of progress?
160
484760
2280
um koji stvara ovu vrst napretka?
08:08
The other thing that's worrying, frankly,
161
488840
2136
Druga stvar koja je zabrinjavajuća, iskreno,
je kako, zamislite najbolji scenarij.
08:11
is that, imagine the best case scenario.
162
491000
4976
dakle zamislite kako pogodimo dizajn superinteligentne AI
08:16
So imagine we hit upon a design of superintelligent AI
163
496000
4176
08:20
that has no safety concerns.
164
500200
1376
koji nema sigurnosnih problema.
08:21
We have the perfect design the first time around.
165
501600
3256
Imamo savršen dizajn iz prve.
08:24
It's as though we've been handed an oracle
166
504880
2216
Kao da nam je dano proročanstvo
koje se ponaša posve kako bi i trebalo.
08:27
that behaves exactly as intended.
167
507120
2016
Dobro, taj bi stroj bio savršena naprava za uštedu rada.
08:29
Well, this machine would be the perfect labor-saving device.
168
509160
3720
08:33
It can design the machine that can build the machine
169
513680
2429
Može dizajnirati stroj koji može izraditi stroj
koji može obavljati svaki fizički rad,
08:36
that can do any physical work,
170
516133
1763
08:37
powered by sunlight,
171
517920
1456
pogonjen sunčanom svjetlošću,
08:39
more or less for the cost of raw materials.
172
519400
2696
manje ili više po cijeni sirovog materijala.
Dakle pričamo o kraju ljudske tlake.
08:42
So we're talking about the end of human drudgery.
173
522120
3256
08:45
We're also talking about the end of most intellectual work.
174
525400
2800
Također pričamo o kraju većine intelektualnog rada.
08:49
So what would apes like ourselves do in this circumstance?
175
529200
3056
Pa što bi majmuni poput nas činili u takvim okolnostima?
08:52
Well, we'd be free to play Frisbee and give each other massages.
176
532280
4080
Ok, bili bi slobodni igrati frizbi i masirati se međusobno.
08:57
Add some LSD and some questionable wardrobe choices,
177
537840
2856
Dodajte nešto LSD i nešto upitnih odluka oko odjeće,
09:00
and the whole world could be like Burning Man.
178
540720
2176
i cijeli bi svijet mogao biti poput Burning Mana.
09:02
(Laughter)
179
542920
1640
(Smijeh)
09:06
Now, that might sound pretty good,
180
546320
2000
Sad, to može zvučati prilično dobro,
09:09
but ask yourself what would happen
181
549280
2376
ali pitajte se što bi se dogodilo
09:11
under our current economic and political order?
182
551680
2736
pod našim trenutnim ekonomskim i političkim poretkom?
09:14
It seems likely that we would witness
183
554440
2416
Čini se vjerojatnim kako bismo svjedočili
09:16
a level of wealth inequality and unemployment
184
556880
4136
razini nejednakosti u bogatstvu te nezaposlenosti
kakvu nismo vidjeli nikad prije.
09:21
that we have never seen before.
185
561040
1496
09:22
Absent a willingness to immediately put this new wealth
186
562560
2616
Bez volje za trenutnim stavljanjem tog novog bogatstva
09:25
to the service of all humanity,
187
565200
1480
u službu svog čovječanstva,
09:27
a few trillionaires could grace the covers of our business magazines
188
567640
3616
nekoliko bi trilijunaša moglo resiti naslovnice naših poslovni časopisa
09:31
while the rest of the world would be free to starve.
189
571280
2440
dok bi ostatak svijeta bio slobodan gladovati.
09:34
And what would the Russians or the Chinese do
190
574320
2296
A što bi Rusi ili Kinezi učinili
09:36
if they heard that some company in Silicon Valley
191
576640
2616
ako bi čuli kako se neka kompanija u Silicijskoj dolini
09:39
was about to deploy a superintelligent AI?
192
579280
2736
upravo sprema izbaciti superinteligentnu AI?
Taj bi stroj bio sposoban voditi rat,
09:42
This machine would be capable of waging war,
193
582040
2856
09:44
whether terrestrial or cyber,
194
584920
2216
bilo zemaljski ili cyber,
sa neviđenom moći.
09:47
with unprecedented power.
195
587160
1680
Ovo je scenarij gdje pobjednik dobija sve.
09:50
This is a winner-take-all scenario.
196
590120
1856
Biti šest mjeseci ispred konkurencije ovdje
09:52
To be six months ahead of the competition here
197
592000
3136
je biti 500.000 godina ispred,
09:55
is to be 500,000 years ahead,
198
595160
2776
09:57
at a minimum.
199
597960
1496
minimalno.
09:59
So it seems that even mere rumors of this kind of breakthrough
200
599480
4736
Pa se čini kako bi čak i puke glasine o ovakvoj vrsti probitka
10:04
could cause our species to go berserk.
201
604240
2376
mogle prouzročiti našu vrstu da poludi.
10:06
Now, one of the most frightening things,
202
606640
2896
Sad, jedna od najviše zastrašujućih stvari,
10:09
in my view, at this moment,
203
609560
2776
kako ja to vidim, u ovom trenutku,
10:12
are the kinds of things that AI researchers say
204
612360
4296
su stvari koje istraživači AI govore
10:16
when they want to be reassuring.
205
616680
1560
kada žele biti ohrabrujući.
A najčešći razlog za bezbrižnost koji navode je vrijeme.
10:19
And the most common reason we're told not to worry is time.
206
619000
3456
10:22
This is all a long way off, don't you know.
207
622480
2056
To je sve daleko, ne znaš li?
10:24
This is probably 50 or 100 years away.
208
624560
2440
To je vjerojatno 50 ili 100 godina od nas.
10:27
One researcher has said,
209
627720
1256
Jedan je istraživač rekao:
"Brinuti se oko sigurnosti AI
10:29
"Worrying about AI safety
210
629000
1576
10:30
is like worrying about overpopulation on Mars."
211
630600
2280
je poput brige o prekomjernoj populaciji na Marsu."
To je verzija iz Silicijske doline
10:34
This is the Silicon Valley version
212
634116
1620
10:35
of "don't worry your pretty little head about it."
213
635760
2376
one: "nemoj brinuti svoju lijepu malu glavu sa time."
(Smijeh)
10:38
(Laughter)
214
638160
1336
10:39
No one seems to notice
215
639520
1896
Izgleda kako nitko ne primjećuje
10:41
that referencing the time horizon
216
641440
2616
kako je oslanjanje na vremenski horizont
potpuni non sequitur.
10:44
is a total non sequitur.
217
644080
2576
10:46
If intelligence is just a matter of information processing,
218
646680
3256
Ako je inteligencija samo pitanje procesiranja informacija,
10:49
and we continue to improve our machines,
219
649960
2656
te ako nastavimo unapređivati naše strojeve,
10:52
we will produce some form of superintelligence.
220
652640
2880
stvorit ćemo neki oblik superinteligencije.
10:56
And we have no idea how long it will take us
221
656320
3656
A nemamo pojma koliko će nam dugo trebati
stvoriti uvjete kako bismo to učinili sigurno.
11:00
to create the conditions to do that safely.
222
660000
2400
11:04
Let me say that again.
223
664200
1296
Dajte da to kažem ponovo.
11:05
We have no idea how long it will take us
224
665520
3816
Nemamo pojma koliko će nam dugo trebati
11:09
to create the conditions to do that safely.
225
669360
2240
stvoriti uvjete kako bismo to učinili sigurno.
11:12
And if you haven't noticed, 50 years is not what it used to be.
226
672920
3456
A ako niste primijetili, 50 godina nije što je nekad bilo.
11:16
This is 50 years in months.
227
676400
2456
Ovo je 50 godina u mjesecima.
11:18
This is how long we've had the iPhone.
228
678880
1840
Ovo je koliko dugo imamo iPhone.
11:21
This is how long "The Simpsons" has been on television.
229
681440
2600
Ovo je koliko dugo su "Simpsoni" na televiziji.
11:24
Fifty years is not that much time
230
684680
2376
Pedeset godina nije tako puno vremena
za sučeliti se sa jednim od najvećih izazova koje će naša vrsta ikad imati.
11:27
to meet one of the greatest challenges our species will ever face.
231
687080
3160
11:31
Once again, we seem to be failing to have an appropriate emotional response
232
691640
4016
Još jednom, izgleda da ne uspijevamo imati prikladan emotivni odgovor
11:35
to what we have every reason to believe is coming.
233
695680
2696
za što imamo svaki razlog vjerovati kako dolazi.
11:38
The computer scientist Stuart Russell has a nice analogy here.
234
698400
3976
Računalni znanstvenik Stuart Russell ovdje pravi zgodnu analogiju.
11:42
He said, imagine that we received a message from an alien civilization,
235
702400
4896
On kaže, zamislite kako smo primili poruku od vanzemaljske civilizacije,
11:47
which read:
236
707320
1696
koja piše:
"Ljudi Zemlje,
11:49
"People of Earth,
237
709040
1536
11:50
we will arrive on your planet in 50 years.
238
710600
2360
stići ćemo na vaš planet za 50 godina.
11:53
Get ready."
239
713800
1576
Pripremite se."
11:55
And now we're just counting down the months until the mothership lands?
240
715400
4256
I sad mi samo brojimo mjesece dok matični brod ne sleti?
11:59
We would feel a little more urgency than we do.
241
719680
3000
Osjećali bismo malo veću hitnost nego što osjećamo.
12:04
Another reason we're told not to worry
242
724680
1856
Još jedan razlog što nam govore da ne brinemo
12:06
is that these machines can't help but share our values
243
726560
3016
je kako si ti strojevi ne mogu pomoći da ne dijele naše vrijednosti
12:09
because they will be literally extensions of ourselves.
244
729600
2616
jer će doslovno biti produžeci nas samih.
12:12
They'll be grafted onto our brains,
245
732240
1816
Bit će usađeni u naše mozgove,
a mi ćemo u biti postati njihov limbički sustav.
12:14
and we'll essentially become their limbic systems.
246
734080
2360
sad uzmite trenutak pa razmislite
12:17
Now take a moment to consider
247
737120
1416
12:18
that the safest and only prudent path forward,
248
738560
3176
kako je najsigurniji i jedini razborit put naprijed,
12:21
recommended,
249
741760
1336
preporučeno,
ugraditi tu tehnologiju izravno u naše mozgove.
12:23
is to implant this technology directly into our brains.
250
743120
2800
12:26
Now, this may in fact be the safest and only prudent path forward,
251
746600
3376
Sad, to može zapravo biti najsigurniji i jedini razborit put nparijed,
ali obično sigurnosni problemi oko tehnologije
12:30
but usually one's safety concerns about a technology
252
750000
3056
moraju biti manje više izglađeni prije nego ju zabijete u vlastitu glavu.
12:33
have to be pretty much worked out before you stick it inside your head.
253
753080
3656
12:36
(Laughter)
254
756760
2016
(Smijeh)
12:38
The deeper problem is that building superintelligent AI on its own
255
758800
5336
Dublji je problem što se izgradnja superinteligentne AI
čini vjerojatno lakšim
12:44
seems likely to be easier
256
764160
1736
12:45
than building superintelligent AI
257
765920
1856
nego izgradnja superinteligentne AI
12:47
and having the completed neuroscience
258
767800
1776
i imanje zaokružene neuroznanosti
12:49
that allows us to seamlessly integrate our minds with it.
259
769600
2680
koja nam omogućuje da ju glatko integriramo s našim umovima.
12:52
And given that the companies and governments doing this work
260
772800
3176
A uzevši kako će kompanije i vlade koje se bave ovim poslom
vjerojatno percipirati kako su u utrci protiv svih ostalih,
12:56
are likely to perceive themselves as being in a race against all others,
261
776000
3656
12:59
given that to win this race is to win the world,
262
779680
3256
uzevši kako je osvojiti ovu utrku isto što i osvojiti svijet,
13:02
provided you don't destroy it in the next moment,
263
782960
2456
pod pretpostavkom kako ga nećete uništiti u slijedećem trenutku,
13:05
then it seems likely that whatever is easier to do
264
785440
2616
onda se čini vjerojatnim kako će što god je lakše učiniti
biti učinjeno prvo.
13:08
will get done first.
265
788080
1200
13:10
Now, unfortunately, I don't have a solution to this problem,
266
790560
2856
Sad, na nesreću, nemam rješenje za ovaj problem,
13:13
apart from recommending that more of us think about it.
267
793440
2616
osim preporučiti kako bi više nas trebalo razmišljati o njemu.
Mislim kako trebamo nešto poput Manhattan Projecta
13:16
I think we need something like a Manhattan Project
268
796080
2376
13:18
on the topic of artificial intelligence.
269
798480
2016
po pitanju umjetne inteligencije.
13:20
Not to build it, because I think we'll inevitably do that,
270
800520
2736
Ne kako bismo je stvorili, jer ćemo to neizbježno napraviti,
13:23
but to understand how to avoid an arms race
271
803280
3336
već kako bismo razumjeli kako izbjeći utrku u naoružanju
13:26
and to build it in a way that is aligned with our interests.
272
806640
3496
te kako ju sagraditi na način koji se podudara s našim interesima.
Kad pričate o superinteligentnoj AI
13:30
When you're talking about superintelligent AI
273
810160
2136
13:32
that can make changes to itself,
274
812320
2256
koja može raditi preinake sebi samoj,
13:34
it seems that we only have one chance to get the initial conditions right,
275
814600
4616
čini se kako imamo samo jednu priliku za posložiti ispravne početne uvjete,
13:39
and even then we will need to absorb
276
819240
2056
a čak i tada ćemo trebati upiti
13:41
the economic and political consequences of getting them right.
277
821320
3040
ekonomske i političke posljedice slaganja takvih uvjeta.
13:45
But the moment we admit
278
825760
2056
Ali trenutak u kojem priznamo
13:47
that information processing is the source of intelligence,
279
827840
4000
kako je obrada informacija izvor inteligencije,
13:52
that some appropriate computational system is what the basis of intelligence is,
280
832720
4800
kako je neki prikladan račualni sustav ono na čemu se inteligencija temelji,
13:58
and we admit that we will improve these systems continuously,
281
838360
3760
te priznamo kako ćemo trajno unaprijeđivati te sustave,
14:03
and we admit that the horizon of cognition very likely far exceeds
282
843280
4456
te priznamo kako horizont spoznaje vrlo vjerojatno daleko premašuje
14:07
what we currently know,
283
847760
1200
što trenutno znamo,
onda moramo priznati
14:10
then we have to admit
284
850120
1216
14:11
that we are in the process of building some sort of god.
285
851360
2640
kako smo u postupku izgradnje neke vrste boga.
14:15
Now would be a good time
286
855400
1576
Sad bi bilo dobro vrijeme
osigurati da to bude bog s kakvim možemo živjeti.
14:17
to make sure it's a god we can live with.
287
857000
1953
Hvala Vam puno.
14:20
Thank you very much.
288
860120
1536
14:21
(Applause)
289
861680
5093
(Pljesak)
O ovoj web stranici

Ova stranica će vas upoznati s YouTube videozapisima koji su korisni za učenje engleskog jezika. Vidjet ćete lekcije engleskog koje vode vrhunski profesori iz cijelog svijeta. Dvaput kliknite na engleske titlove prikazane na svakoj video stranici da biste reproducirali video s tog mjesta. Titlovi se pomiču sinkronizirano s reprodukcijom videozapisa. Ako imate bilo kakvih komentara ili zahtjeva, obratite nam se putem ovog obrasca za kontakt.

https://forms.gle/WvT1wiN1qDtmnspy7