To End Extreme Poverty, Give Cash — Not Advice | Rory Stewart | TED

翻译人员: Tianyun Liu 校对人员: Yanyan Hong

I'm here today to talk to you about the most extreme horror

我今天来这里是想和大家 谈谈我们这个时代

and scandal in our age,

最极端的恐怖和丑闻，

which is the horror of extreme poverty.

那就是极端贫困的恐怖。

The fact that there are hundreds of millions of people

事实上，当今世界上有数亿人

around the world today who cannot clothe themselves,

衣不蔽体，

who cannot shelter themselves,

居无定所，

who are struggling to eat once every two days.

过着饥一顿饱一顿的生活。

But I'm also here with a message of hope,

但我在这里也传达了一个代表希望的信息，

to say that this is a moment where we have the ideas,

就是说，在这个时刻， 我们拥有想法，

where we have the technology,

我们拥有技术，

that we could end extreme poverty in our lifetime.

可以在有生之年终结极端贫困。

Let me begin by going back to the question

首先，让我回过头来谈谈

of why we have failed to address extreme poverty.

我们为何未能解决极端贫困问题。

And all of us, I think, have been through this.

我认为，我们所有人都经历过这种情况。

We feel often that all we can do is hope

我们常常觉得，我们所能做的

that some new magical technological solution will emerge.

就是期望出现一些新的、 神奇的技术解决方案。

Or that extreme poverty around the world

或者说，世界各地的极端贫困

is somehow disappearing by itself.

正在以某种方式自行消失。

Or that somehow if we just give money to the experts,

或者，不知何故，如果我们向专家、

to the agencies, to the governments,

机构、政府捐款，

they're going to be able to solve extreme poverty.

他们就能解决极端贫困问题。

I was, in a sense, one of those experts.

从某种意义上说， 我曾经是其中一位专家。

I've been working in international development for 30 years.

我在国际发展领域工作了 30 年。

I started working in a poor developing country in Asia.

我开始在亚洲一个贫穷的发展中国家工作。

I went on to work in countries emerging from conflicts.

我继续在刚摆脱冲突的国家工作。

I set up a nonprofit in Afghanistan,

我在阿富汗成立了一家非营利组织，

I lived in Kabul for a number of years.

在喀布尔生活了多年。

I went on to join the British Agency for International Development.

我后来加入了英国国际开发署。

I ended up as the boss

我最终成为

in charge of 20-billion- dollar-a-year budget

负责每年 200 亿美元预算的老板，

directed to addressing extreme poverty.

该预算旨在解决极端贫困。

What I saw was deeply depressing,

我所看到的令人深感沮丧的是，

that when you go out on the ground,

当你在实地实施时，

these projects are far worse than you could possibly imagine.

这些项目比你想象的要糟糕得多。

The statistics and the evidence

统计数据和证据

are shocking.

令人震惊。

Over decades of attempts to address this.

数十年来一直在尝试解决这个问题。

It's true that in percentage terms,

的确，按百分比计算，

the number of people living in extreme poverty around the world has reduced.

世界各地生活在极端贫困中的人数减少了。

A lot of that, of course, is to do with countries like China,

当然，这在很大程度上 与中国这样的国家有关，

which have had incredible economic growth rates.

这些国家的 经济增长率令人难以置信。

And even in sub-Saharan Africa,

即使在撒哈拉以南非洲，

there has been some reduction in the percentage of people

自 1980 年以来，

living in extreme poverty since 1980.

生活在极端贫困中的人口比例也有所下降。

The absolute numbers of people living in extreme poverty in Africa

非洲生活在极端贫困中的绝对人数

have gone from 170 million people in 1980

已从 1980 年的 1.7 亿人增加到

to 430 million people today.

今天的 4.3 亿。

That's almost half a billion people not able to meet their most basic needs.

也就是说，将近 5 亿人 连最基本的生活需求都无法满足。

And that is often because of just how bad our projects are.

这通常是因为我们的项目进展糟糕。

Let me try to give you an example.

让我试着给你举个例子。

When I was a British government minister,

当我担任英国政府大臣时，

I went out to see one of these projects in East Africa,

我去东非看过

which was directed towards trying to address poverty

其中一个项目，该项目旨在

through addressing the needs of young women.

通过满足年轻女性的需求来解决贫困问题。

The idea was that young women, during their menstrual cycle,

其想法是， 年轻女性在月经周期中，

if there are not sanitation facilities available in schools,

如果学校没有卫生设施，

will often leave school in order to return home,

将不得不离开学校回到家中，

and that will contribute to them not being in the workplace and to poverty.

这将导致她们无法工作，从而造成贫困。

I set off to visit the project and as you can imagine,

我开始监督这个项目，你可以想象，

I received an amazing 100-page document

我收到了一份长达 100 页的精彩文档，

full of descriptions of all the smart stuff

其中描述了我们

that we thought we were doing:

认为所有有所进展的 且自认为绝妙的事项：

needs assessments,

需求评估、

community consultations, engineering diagrams,

社区咨询、工程设计图、

logical frameworks,

逻辑框架、

theories of change.

变革理论。

And I arrive at the project

然后当我去看这个项目，

and what I find is a line of white Land Cruiser jeeps

我发现是一排白色的陆地巡洋舰吉普车

and smiling engineers.

和面带微笑的工程师。

And I get out, and all of them are explaining to me

然后我出去，他们都在 向我解释他们在卫生、工程、

all the wonderful stuff they've done in terms of sanitation, engineering,

设计和咨询方面所做的

design and consultation.

所有精彩事情。

I asked to see what the result of it is,

我就问结果如何，

and the result was literally two holes in the ground

结果实际上是在地上打了两个洞，

with brick walls around them and five red plastic buckets.

周围是砖墙， 还有五个红色的塑料桶。

2,000 dollars, maximum, impact

我们投资的价值 4 万美元的项目

in terms of what we'd done for a 40,000-dollar project.

最多竟然就产生了两千美元的效益。

And I said to people,

然后我对人们说：

"Why did you not just give 2,000 dollars to the head teacher

“你们为什么不直接给校长两千美元，

and let the head teacher buy those buckets?"

然后让校长买那些水桶？”

And the answer was,

答案是：

"We were worried that if we didn't do all our paper works and studies

“我们担心，如果我们不走完报告流程和研究、

and needs assessments and consultations,

需求评估和咨询，

the project would go wrong and he would steal the money."

项目就会出错，他会贪污钱。”

And my response was,

而我的回答是，

"We stole the money."

“我们贪污了钱。”

(Applause)

（掌声）

We literally stole 38,000

我们实际上从 4 万美元中

out of 40,000 dollars.

偷走了 3 万 8 千美元。

We could have done 20 times the number of schools.

我们本可以完成学校数量的 20 倍。

We stole the money.

我们贪污了钱。

Now why is it that we get ourselves stuck in these problems?

那么，为什么我们会陷入这些问题呢？

Well often it is because of mindsets.

好吧，这通常是因为心态。

It's because of institutions, it's because of careers,

这是因为机构，是因为职业，

but it's also because of mental models.

但也因为心理模型。

And in particular, it's this lovely phrase,

尤其是，这句可爱的短语，

“Give someone a fish, they eat for a day.

“授人以鱼，

Teach them to fish, they eat for a lifetime.”

不如授人以渔。”

It's a miraculous phrase.

这是一句神奇的短语。

You can see why it's incredibly appealing, right?

你可以明白为什么 它非常吸引人，对吧？

Instead of imagining yourself flopping trout into someone's boat,

与其想象自己把 鳟鱼丢到别人的船上，

you imagine that you've taught them something

不如想象自己已经 教会了他们一些有用的东西，

where magically, they're going to be able to feed themselves

让他们将能够在

for the rest of their lives

余生中养活自己，

and you just step aside.

而你可以退到后方。

The problem is, unfortunately, that this phrase,

不幸的是，问题在于，

although incredibly appealing,

这句话虽然极具吸引力，

is actually leading to very patronizing programming

但实际上却助长了自以为是的“走过场”，

and programming that often achieves exactly the opposite

其效果往往与它声称的

of what it claims to do.

完全相反。

And I realized that because I went out to see a completely different project.

我意识到这一点是因为我出去看了 一个完全不同的项目。

I went to Rwanda,

三年后，我去了卢旺达，

to the Rwanda-Burundi border three years later,

到了卢旺达和布隆迪的边境，

and I saw a project where an NGO had turned up on the ground

我看到了一个项目， 一个非政府组织在当地出现，

and instead of doing capacity building, instead of teaching people how to fish,

他们没有进行能力建设， 也没有教人们如何捕鱼，

they were quite literally just giving unconditional cash to people.

而是向人们提供无条件的现金。

They were handing out cash.

他们在分发现金。

They were turning up in village houses and saying,

他们出现在村屋里说：

"Here is 900 dollars in cash,"

“这里有 900 美元的现金”，

not a monthly payment, a lump sum payment,

不是每月的付款，一次性付款，

it's not a microcredit or a loan.

也不是小额信贷或贷款。

"This is your money, you can do with it what you like."

“这是你的钱，你可以随心所欲。”

And I was completely astonished.

我完全惊讶了。

This seemed to be the most anti-development fish-giving project

这似乎是我一生中见过的、最反开发的

I'd ever seen in my life, right?

鱼类捐赠项目，对吧？

(Laughter)

（笑声）

But the results were absolutely staggering.

但是结果绝对令人震惊。

This community had completely transformed

这个社区彻底改变了

the amount of electricity in the community,

社区的用电量，

almost everybody was ending up with roofs,

几乎每个人最后都有了屋顶，

almost everybody had health insurance.

几乎每个人都有健康保险。

It was a fantastic increase in the number of children in school.

在校儿童人数大幅增加。

The whole place just felt better, happier.

整个地方感觉好多了，更快乐。

Honestly, in my entire life in international development,

老实说，在我参与国际发展的一生中，

I'd never seen anything like this village.

我从未见过像这个村庄这样的地方。

And it turned out that it wasn't a fluke.

事实证明，这不是偶然的。

Because academics over the last 10 or 15 years

因为在过去的 10 或 15 年中，

have begun to use randomized controlled trials.

学者们已经开始使用随机对照试验。

These are studies like a medical trial,

这些研究类似于医学试验，

in which you compare a treatment group to a control group

在这些研究中， 将治疗组与对照组进行比较，

and study them over time.

并随着时间的推移对其进行研究。

And what they discovered in hundreds of studies

他们在世界上

in many countries in the world

许多国家的数百项研究

is that consistently,

中发现，

cash was leading to a real reduction

现金一直在减少儿童死亡率

in things like child mortality and depression

和抑郁症等因素，

and fantastic increases consistently in education, in health,

而教育、卫生、企业、

in businesses, in savings, in incomes, in investment.

储蓄、 收入和投资的持续大幅增长。

More than that, it was actually leading to a multiplier effect.

不仅如此， 它实际上还带来了乘数效应。

For every dollar delivered into a community,

每向一个社区提供 1 美元，

there was 2.50 dollars of benefit for the surrounding villages.

就会为周围的村庄提供 2.50 美元的补助。

It was a fiscal stimulus.

这是一项财政刺激措施。

And no, it was not, as you might imagine,

不，正如你可能想象的那样，

leading to people just lying around in bed, drinking alcohol.

这并没有导致人们躺在床上喝酒。

In fact, people were investing the money productively.

实际上，人们正在富有成效地 投资这笔钱。

Now why was this?

这是为什么？

Well I realized that there are probably four reasons why cash is so effective.

好吧，我意识到现金之所以如此有效， 可能有四个原因。

The first is that people in extreme poverty

首先，极端贫困的人

frequently don't require knowledge.

通常不需要知识。

What they require is capital.

他们需要的是资本。

Take Jeanne, a traditional program that I used to run

以珍妮为例， 我曾经在政府工作时

when I worked for the government,

开办的一个传统项目，

would have gone in and taught her how to run her business.

本来可以教她 如何经营自己的企业。

But Jeanne already knows how to run her grocery business.

但是珍妮已经知道 如何经营自己的杂货生意了。

She just doesn't have the money for the biscuits, right?

她只是没有钱买饼干，对吧？

In other words, she already knows how to fish.

换句话说，她已经知道如何钓鱼了。

What she doesn't have is the money for the fishing hook.

她没有买鱼钩的钱。

The second reason why cash works is that everybody's different.

现金起作用的第二个原因是 每个人都不一样。

If you work your way around that village,

如果你在那个村子里四处工作，

Jeanne needs to open a grocery shop,

珍妮需要开一家杂货店，

Seraphine wants to get her children into school,

塞拉芬想让孩子上学，

Esperance wants to access health care,

埃斯佩兰斯想获得医疗保健，

Telesphore wants to get a cow

泰里夫想买一头奶牛，

so that he can have milk and yogurt to sell.

这样他就可以卖牛奶和酸奶。

Marie may want to set up a tailoring business.

玛丽可能想开一家裁缝店。

Damascene may want to get a motorbike taxi.

戴马辛可能想买一部电瓶车。

In other words,

换句话说，

people don't want to learn how to fish.

人们不想学习如何钓鱼。

They might want to open a bakery.

他们可能想开一家面包店。

(Applause and laughter)

（掌声和笑声）

The third reason that cash works

现金起作用的第三个原因

is that it's of course, much more efficient.

是，当然，它的效率要高得多。

Instead of going in

如果你给他们现金，

with an international construction company or an NGO

他们不会去国际建筑公司或

building someone's house for them,

非政府组织为他们建造房屋，

if you give them the cash,

而是与邻居合作，

they will work with their neighbors and with local materials

使用当地材料，

to repair and fix their house at a fraction of the cost,

以低廉的成本去修补和重建房屋，

and then have money left over for other things.

然后将剩余的钱用于其他地方。

And the final reason why cash works

现金之所以起作用， 最后一个原因是

is it trusts people.

它信任人们。

People are making their own choices on what they want to do with the money.

人们可以在自己想用这笔钱的时候， 做出自己的选择。

And when people make their own choices,

而且，当人们做出自己的选择时，

they are then able to sustain and take pride in the investments

他们就能维持投资并为之感到自豪，

in a way that isn't possible if somebody else does it for them.

而如果有人为他们做这件事， 这是不可能发生的。

So we are now at a moment

因此，我认为我们现在正处于只要无条件

where I believe unconditional cash transfers

将现金转移，

could unlock the secret of addressing extreme poverty worldwide.

可以揭开解决全球极端贫困的秘密。

And the reason to be excited by it

之所以对此感到兴奋，

is that technology is suddenly making this much easier

是因为在过去的十年中， 技术突然

over the last ten years.

使这变得容易得多。

So the extreme poor in Africa can now,

因此，非洲的极端穷人

for seven or nine dollars, get hold of a feature phone,

现在可以花七到九美元 买到一部功能手机，

and money can be directed directly to their phone,

钱可以直接转到他们的手机上，

cutting out all the middle people,

省去所有中间人，

all the governments and NGOs that used to take the money along the way.

所有过去一路贪污的政府和非政府组织。

Artificial intelligence is now allowing us to target

现在 ，人工智能使我们能够以 前所未有的方式瞄准

and understand communities in a way we couldn't before.

和了解社区。

In Togo, for example,

例如，在多哥，

the Togo government was able to deliver cash

多哥政府能够在短短几个小时内

through people's phones

通过人们的电话

to 100,000 people in a matter of hours.

向 10 万人提供现金。

Technology is also helping us with climate change.

科技也在帮助我们应对气候变化。

In the past, cash assistance arrived after the flood had hit.

过去，现金援助是在洪水 来袭后提供的。

Now AI is allowing us to predict far better than before,

现在，人工智能使我们能够 比以前更好地预测天气，

when the extreme weather event would occur

极端气候何时发生，

and allow us to get the cash to people, to move their livestock,

并使我们能够在洪水到来 之前向人们提供现金，

move their families before the flood arrives.

转移他们的牲畜，转移他们的家人。

Now, of course, cash is not the answer to everything, right?

当然，现在， 现金并不是所有问题的答案，对吧？

There are many other things that governments need to do.

政府还需要做许多其他事情。

They need to make sure, for example,

例如，他们需要

that there is good government.

确保有良好的政府。

We need to build roads, need to build bridges,

我们需要修建道路， 需要修建桥梁，

need to build dams, need to improve the quality of education in schools.

需要修建水坝， 需要提高学校的教育质量。

These are all things that need to happen.

这些都是需要发生的事情。

But what cash does

但是现金的作用

is it allows the extreme poor to participate in that development story.

是让极端贫困者参与到发展故事中来。

It allows Jeanne to use that road to get her products to market.

它使珍妮能够利用这条路 将她的产品推向市场。

It allows Esperance to use the clinic.

它允许埃斯佩兰斯去诊所看病。

It allows Telesphore to find the markets for his milk or his yogurt.

它使泰里夫能够 为他的牛奶或酸奶找到市场。

And this is where everybody here can contribute, right?

这是在座的每个人 都可以做出贡献的地方，对吧？

As an individual on a lower income,

作为收入较低的个人，

you can send 30 dollars a month directly to someone in extreme poverty.

你可以每月直接向极端贫困的人 汇款 30 美元。

It will make 100 times more difference to them than it does to you.

它对他们的影响将是 对你的影响大 100 倍。

If you're a wealthier person listening to this,

如果你是一个更富有的人，

put in tens of millions of dollars,

那就投入数千万美元，

put in hundreds of millions of dollars.

投入数亿美元。

Demonstrate that what we've seen at a small scale

证明我们在小规模上所看到的

can lift an entire country like Rwanda or Malawi out of poverty.

可以使卢旺达或马拉维 这样的整个国家摆脱贫困。

And do so to get to people like me,

这样做是为了吸引像我这样的人，

to convince the government ministers

说服政府部长

and the big agencies

和大型机构

that they should be putting the money behind cash.

相信他们应该把钱用在现金上。

Because the money is there.

因为钱在那里。

We spend almost twice as much annually on international development

我们每年在国际发展上的

as it would take to lift everybody in the world

支出几乎是使世界上

out of extreme poverty.

所有人摆脱极端贫困所需的两倍。

And we can do it.

而且我们能做到。

And the most important thing to understand here

这里要了解的最重要的一点是，

is that the cash is not just proven in evidence to be more effective,

现金不仅被证明更有效、

more efficient,

更高效、

more tailored.

更具量身定制。

There is a moral dimension here

这里有道德层面，

because it respects people's choice

因为在担心屈尊和殖民援助的时代，

at an age that's worried about patronizing and colonial aid.

它尊重人们的选择。

It doesn't just consult them or listen to them,

它不只是向他们咨询或听取他们的意见，

it puts them in charge.

还让他们负起责任，

It literally lets them make the choice.

它真切地让他们做出选择。

It respects their equality

它尊重他们的平等，

and it respects their dignity.

也尊重他们的尊严。

Thank you very much indeed.

无比感谢各位。

(Applause)

（掌声）