To End Extreme Poverty, Give Cash — Not Advice | Rory Stewart | TED

譯者: 麗玲 辛 審譯者: Shelley Tsang 曾雯海

I'm here today to talk to you about the most extreme horror

我今天來這裡，要跟各位談談

當今最嚴重的駭人醜聞，

and scandal in our age,

which is the horror of extreme poverty.

那就是極端貧困的恐怖情況。

The fact that there are hundreds of millions of people

目前全球有數億人

around the world today who cannot clothe themselves,

無法穿暖衣，

who cannot shelter themselves,

沒有棲身之所，

who are struggling to eat once every two days.

甚至每兩天才能勉強吃上一頓飯。

But I'm also here with a message of hope,

儘管如此，我也帶來了 充滿希望的訊息，

to say that this is a moment where we have the ideas,

現在，我們有想法和技術，

where we have the technology,

that we could end extreme poverty in our lifetime.

能夠讓我們在有生之年終結極端貧困。

Let me begin by going back to the question

首先，容我先談一個老問題：

of why we have failed to address extreme poverty.

為什麼我們一直無法解決極端貧困？

我想我們都曾有過這種感受，

And all of us, I think, have been through this.

We feel often that all we can do is hope

常常覺得我們只能寄望

that some new magical technological solution will emerge.

某種神奇的科技新解方出現；

Or that extreme poverty around the world

或盼望世界上的極端貧困會自動消失，

is somehow disappearing by itself.

Or that somehow if we just give money to the experts,

或者認為只要我們把錢交給專家、

to the agencies, to the governments,

某些機構或政府，

they're going to be able to solve extreme poverty.

他們就能解決這個問題。

I was, in a sense, one of those experts.

我曾經算是這樣的專家之一。

I've been working in international development for 30 years.

我從事國際發展工作已有 30 年，

I started working in a poor developing country in Asia.

最初在某個貧窮的 亞洲開發中國家工作，

I went on to work in countries emerging from conflicts.

後來在一些從戰亂復甦的國家工作。

I set up a nonprofit in Afghanistan,

我曾在阿富汗成立一個非營利組織。

I lived in Kabul for a number of years.

我在喀布爾住了好幾年，

I went on to join the British Agency for International Development.

之後加入了英國國際發展署，

I ended up as the boss

最後負責管理 每年 200 億美元的預算，

in charge of 20-billion- dollar-a-year budget

directed to addressing extreme poverty.

用於解決極端貧困的問題。

What I saw was deeply depressing,

然而，當我實際走訪這些專案時，

that when you go out on the ground,

我看到的情況令人十分沮喪，

these projects are far worse than you could possibly imagine.

這些專案的實際情況 比各位能想像的還要糟糕。

The statistics and the evidence

統計數據和佐證資料都令人震驚。

are shocking.

Over decades of attempts to address this.

我們幾十年來都在努力解決這個問題，

It's true that in percentage terms,

雖然就比例上來看，

the number of people living in extreme poverty around the world has reduced.

全球極端貧困人口 比例的確有下降，

A lot of that, of course, is to do with countries like China,

當然，很大程度上，

which have had incredible economic growth rates.

這要歸功於中國等國家 驚人的經濟成長率。

And even in sub-Saharan Africa,

即使在撒哈拉以南的非洲，

there has been some reduction in the percentage of people

1980 年以來， 極端貧困人口比例略有下降。

living in extreme poverty since 1980.

The absolute numbers of people living in extreme poverty in Africa

但非洲的極端貧困人口總數

have gone from 170 million people in 1980

卻從 1980 年的 1.7 億人

to 430 million people today.

現在增加到 4.3 億人，

That's almost half a billion people not able to meet their most basic needs.

幾乎接近 5 億人 無法滿足最基本的生活需求。

And that is often because of just how bad our projects are.

這往往是因為 我們的專案成效很差。

Let me try to give you an example.

給大家舉個例子。

When I was a British government minister,

在我擔任英國部長時，

I went out to see one of these projects in East Africa,

有次去東非考察某個專案，

which was directed towards trying to address poverty

這個專案目標是解決年輕女性的需求，

through addressing the needs of young women.

以解決貧窮問題。

The idea was that young women, during their menstrual cycle,

這個專案的想法是， 年輕女性在月經期間，

if there are not sanitation facilities available in schools,

如果學校沒有合適的衛生設施，

will often leave school in order to return home,

他們往往會選擇回家，

and that will contribute to them not being in the workplace and to poverty.

這導致她們無法繼續上學， 進而陷入貧窮。

I set off to visit the project and as you can imagine,

我啟程去參觀這個專案，

I received an amazing 100-page document

拿到厚厚一本 100 頁的報告，

full of descriptions of all the smart stuff

寫滿了自認做得很好的各種描述：

that we thought we were doing:

needs assessments,

需求評估、

community consultations, engineering diagrams,

社區諮詢、工程設計、

logical frameworks,

邏輯框架

theories of change.

以及變革理論。

And I arrive at the project

當我到達專案現場時，

and what I find is a line of white Land Cruiser jeeps

迎接我的是一排白色的越野吉普車

and smiling engineers.

和滿臉笑容的工程師們。

And I get out, and all of them are explaining to me

他們開始向我介紹

all the wonderful stuff they've done in terms of sanitation, engineering,

他們在衛生設施、工程設計和諮詢方面

design and consultation.

達成的出色成果。

I asked to see what the result of it is,

我要求看看實際的結果，

and the result was literally two holes in the ground

結果看到地上挖了兩個洞，

with brick walls around them and five red plastic buckets.

旁邊砌了磚牆， 還有五個紅色的塑膠桶。

2,000 dollars, maximum, impact

這些設施的實際成本 頂多二千美元，

in terms of what we'd done for a 40,000-dollar project.

但整個專案花了四萬美元。

And I said to people,

我問他們，

"Why did you not just give 2,000 dollars to the head teacher

「為什麼不直接把二千美元給校長，

and let the head teacher buy those buckets?"

讓他去買那些桶子呢？」

And the answer was,

他們的回答是，

"We were worried that if we didn't do all our paper works and studies

「我們擔心如果沒做 這些文書工作、研究、

and needs assessments and consultations,

需求評估和諮詢，

the project would go wrong and he would steal the money."

專案可能出差錯， 而且校長也許會挪用資金。」

And my response was,

而我的回應是：

"We stole the money."

「我們才是挪用資金的人！」

(Applause)

（掌聲）

We literally stole 38,000

四萬美元中，我們拿走了 三萬八千美元。

out of 40,000 dollars.

We could have done 20 times the number of schools.

我們本可以資助 20 倍數量的學校。

We stole the money.

我們偷了這筆錢。

Now why is it that we get ourselves stuck in these problems?

為什麼我們會陷入這些困境呢？

Well often it is because of mindsets.

通常這是因為心態、

It's because of institutions, it's because of careers,

制度、職業考量，

but it's also because of mental models.

也因為一些思維模式。

And in particular, it's this lovely phrase,

特別是這句名言：

“Give someone a fish, they eat for a day.

「授人以魚，食之一日；

Teach them to fish, they eat for a lifetime.”

授人以漁，終生受用。」

It's a miraculous phrase.

這句話聽起來很神奇，

You can see why it's incredibly appealing, right?

你可以理解為什麼這句話如此誘人。

Instead of imagining yourself flopping trout into someone's boat,

你想像自己不再往別人船上扔魚，

you imagine that you've taught them something

而是神奇地教會他們

where magically, they're going to be able to feed themselves

後半輩子怎麼養活自己，

for the rest of their lives

and you just step aside.

然後你就可以退到一旁。

The problem is, unfortunately, that this phrase,

但是問題在於，

這句話聽來美好，

although incredibly appealing,

is actually leading to very patronizing programming

卻會導致自以為高人一等的規畫，

and programming that often achieves exactly the opposite

最終達到的效果往往適得其反。

of what it claims to do.

And I realized that because I went out to see a completely different project.

我意識到這一點，是因為我去參觀了 另一個完全不同的專案。

I went to Rwanda,

三年後，我去了 盧安達與布隆迪的邊境，

to the Rwanda-Burundi border three years later,

and I saw a project where an NGO had turned up on the ground

看到了一個非政府組織 在當地進行的專案。

and instead of doing capacity building, instead of teaching people how to fish,

他們沒有做「能力建構」， 沒有教人如何「釣魚」，

they were quite literally just giving unconditional cash to people.

他們直接發現金，毫無條件。

They were handing out cash.

就是發現金。

They were turning up in village houses and saying,

他們來到村民家裡，

"Here is 900 dollars in cash,"

直接給每個人 900 美元現金，

not a monthly payment, a lump sum payment,

不是分月給，而是一筆支付，

it's not a microcredit or a loan.

也不是小額貸款，而是說：

"This is your money, you can do with it what you like."

「這是你的錢，你想怎麼用都可以。」

And I was completely astonished.

我當時非常震驚，

This seemed to be the most anti-development fish-giving project

這大概是我見過最反發展的 「授人以魚」專案。

I'd ever seen in my life, right?

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

But the results were absolutely staggering.

但結果卻讓人驚訝不已。

This community had completely transformed

這個社區完全改觀了，

the amount of electricity in the community,

用電量大大提高，

almost everybody was ending up with roofs,

幾乎每家都有了屋頂，

almost everybody had health insurance.

差不多每個人都有健康保險，

It was a fantastic increase in the number of children in school.

上學的孩子大大增加。

The whole place just felt better, happier.

整個村莊都變得更加美好、快樂。

Honestly, in my entire life in international development,

說實話，我在國際發展生涯中

I'd never seen anything like this village.

從未見過像這個村莊一樣的變化。

And it turned out that it wasn't a fluke.

這並非偶然。

Because academics over the last 10 or 15 years

過去 10 到 15 年來，

have begun to use randomized controlled trials.

學者們開始利用隨機對照試驗，

These are studies like a medical trial,

這類研究類似於醫學試驗，

in which you compare a treatment group to a control group

將實驗組與對照組進行長期對比。

and study them over time.

And what they discovered in hundreds of studies

結果發現，在全球 許多國家的數百項研究中，

in many countries in the world

is that consistently,

結果一致，

cash was leading to a real reduction

現金援助帶來了改善， 如兒童死亡率下降、抑鬱症減少，

in things like child mortality and depression

and fantastic increases consistently in education, in health,

也顯著提升了教育、健康、

in businesses, in savings, in incomes, in investment.

企業發展、儲蓄、收入和投資。

More than that, it was actually leading to a multiplier effect.

不僅如此，這還帶來了乘數效應。

For every dollar delivered into a community,

每投入一美元到一個社區，

there was 2.50 dollars of benefit for the surrounding villages.

就會為周邊村莊 帶來 2.5 美元的收益，

It was a fiscal stimulus.

成為一種財政刺激。

And no, it was not, as you might imagine,

而且，與大家的想像相反，

leading to people just lying around in bed, drinking alcohol.

這並沒有導致人們整天賴在床上喝酒，

In fact, people were investing the money productively.

事實上，人們將錢投入到 有生產力的地方。

Now why was this?

為什麼呢？

Well I realized that there are probably four reasons why cash is so effective.

現金援助如此有效， 我認為原因有四個。

The first is that people in extreme poverty

首先，生活在極端貧困中的人們

frequently don't require knowledge.

往往需要的不是知識，

What they require is capital.

他們需要的是資本。

Take Jeanne, a traditional program that I used to run

以珍妮為例，

我以前負責的傳統專案

when I worked for the government,

would have gone in and taught her how to run her business.

會教她如何經營商店，

But Jeanne already knows how to run her grocery business.

但珍妮早就會經營雜貨店，

She just doesn't have the money for the biscuits, right?

她只是沒有錢去買餅乾。

In other words, she already knows how to fish.

換句話說，她已經知道如何「釣魚」，

What she doesn't have is the money for the fishing hook.

她缺的只是買魚鉤的錢。

The second reason why cash works is that everybody's different.

現金有效的第二個原因是 每個人都不一樣。

If you work your way around that village,

當你慢慢認識這個村莊，

Jeanne needs to open a grocery shop,

珍妮想開雜貨店，

Seraphine wants to get her children into school,

塞拉芬想讓她的孩子上學，

Esperance wants to access health care,

艾絲佩朗絲想取得健保，

Telesphore wants to get a cow

泰勒斯弗想養一頭牛， 好來賣牛奶和優格，

so that he can have milk and yogurt to sell.

Marie may want to set up a tailoring business.

瑪麗可能想開裁縫店，

Damascene may want to get a motorbike taxi.

而達瑪森則想買輛摩托車 充當計程車。

In other words,

換句話說，

people don't want to learn how to fish.

人們並不想學「釣魚」，

They might want to open a bakery.

他們可能想開一家麵包店。

(Applause and laughter)

（掌聲與笑聲）

The third reason that cash works

第三個原因，現金援助更具效率。

is that it's of course, much more efficient.

Instead of going in

與其讓國際建築公司 或非政府組織來幫當地人蓋房子，

with an international construction company or an NGO

building someone's house for them,

if you give them the cash,

不如直接把錢給他們， 他們會跟鄰居合作，

they will work with their neighbors and with local materials

to repair and fix their house at a fraction of the cost,

用本地的材料修理房屋，成本更低，

and then have money left over for other things.

剩下的錢還可以做其他事情。

And the final reason why cash works

最後一個原因是現金援助尊重人們。

is it trusts people.

People are making their own choices on what they want to do with the money.

人們自行決定如何使用資金。

And when people make their own choices,

當人們自己做決定，

they are then able to sustain and take pride in the investments

他們對投資感到自豪，也更能持續，

in a way that isn't possible if somebody else does it for them.

這是別人代替他們做決定 所無法達成的。

我相信，我們正處於一個關鍵時刻，

So we are now at a moment

where I believe unconditional cash transfers

無條件的現金轉帳

could unlock the secret of addressing extreme poverty worldwide.

有望解決全球的極端貧困問題。

And the reason to be excited by it

令人興奮的是，

is that technology is suddenly making this much easier

過去十年來，科技上的進步 讓這件事更容易達成。

over the last ten years.

So the extreme poor in Africa can now,

如今在非洲，極端貧困的人們

for seven or nine dollars, get hold of a feature phone,

只需花七到九美元， 就能擁有一部簡單的手機，

and money can be directed directly to their phone,

現金可以直接轉入他們的手機，

cutting out all the middle people,

跳過中間的政府或非政府組織，

all the governments and NGOs that used to take the money along the way.

避免資金被挪用。

人工智慧讓我們能夠更精準地 識別與了解各個社區，這以前做不到。

Artificial intelligence is now allowing us to target

and understand communities in a way we couldn't before.

In Togo, for example,

舉例來說，在多哥，

the Togo government was able to deliver cash

政府能在短短幾個小時內

透過手機，向十萬人發放現金。

through people's phones

to 100,000 people in a matter of hours.

Technology is also helping us with climate change.

科技還能幫助我們應對氣候變遷。

In the past, cash assistance arrived after the flood had hit.

在過去，現金援助 通常在水災發生後才到達。

Now AI is allowing us to predict far better than before,

現在，AI 可以更精準地

預測極端天氣事件，

when the extreme weather event would occur

and allow us to get the cash to people, to move their livestock,

提前將現金送到人們手中，

讓他們能夠在洪水來臨前 搬遷牲畜和家人。

move their families before the flood arrives.

Now, of course, cash is not the answer to everything, right?

當然，現金不是萬能的。

There are many other things that governments need to do.

政府仍然需要做許多事情，

They need to make sure, for example,

例如確保良好的治理，

that there is good government.

We need to build roads, need to build bridges,

建設道路、橋樑、水壩，

need to build dams, need to improve the quality of education in schools.

改善學校的教育品質，

These are all things that need to happen.

這些都是必須做的事。

But what cash does

但現金援助

is it allows the extreme poor to participate in that development story.

讓極端貧困者能夠參與這些發展過程。

珍妮因而能夠利用道路 將她的商品運到市場。

It allows Jeanne to use that road to get her products to market.

It allows Esperance to use the clinic.

艾絲佩朗絲能去診所就醫；

It allows Telesphore to find the markets for his milk or his yogurt.

泰勒斯弗得以找到市場， 去賣牛奶、優格。

And this is where everybody here can contribute, right?

而在座的每一位都可以為此貢獻力量。

As an individual on a lower income,

如果你收入不多，

you can send 30 dollars a month directly to someone in extreme poverty.

只需每月捐出 30 美元，

便能直接幫助一個 生活在極端貧困中的人。

It will make 100 times more difference to them than it does to you.

對他們來說，這筆錢的影響力 是對你的一百倍。

If you're a wealthier person listening to this,

如果你是有錢人，

put in tens of millions of dollars,

請捐出數千萬，甚至上億美元。

put in hundreds of millions of dollars.

Demonstrate that what we've seen at a small scale

證明我們在小規模看到的現象

can lift an entire country like Rwanda or Malawi out of poverty.

也能夠幫助像盧安達或 馬拉威等整個國家脫離貧窮。

And do so to get to people like me,

這樣做，可以影響像我這樣的專家，

to convince the government ministers

去說服政府部長和大型機構，

and the big agencies

that they should be putting the money behind cash.

把資金投入到現金援助計畫中。

Because the money is there.

因為資金就在那裡。

We spend almost twice as much annually on international development

我們每年在國際發展上的花費

幾乎是能讓全球所有人 脫離極端貧困所需金額的兩倍。

as it would take to lift everybody in the world

out of extreme poverty.

And we can do it.

而且我們能做到。

And the most important thing to understand here

最重要的一點是，

is that the cash is not just proven in evidence to be more effective,

現金援助不僅已證實更有效、

more efficient,

更具效率、

more tailored.

更能量身定制，

There is a moral dimension here

還有道德層面，

because it respects people's choice

因為它尊重人們的選擇。

at an age that's worried about patronizing and colonial aid.

在這個擔心施捨式援助 與殖民式援助的時代，

It doesn't just consult them or listen to them,

這種方式不僅僅是諮詢或傾聽，

it puts them in charge.

而是讓當事人掌握主導權。

It literally lets them make the choice.

直接讓他們做決定。

這樣的作法尊重人們的平等與尊嚴。

It respects their equality

and it respects their dignity.

Thank you very much indeed.

非常感謝大家。

(Applause)

（掌聲）