Why AI Will Spark Exponential Economic Growth | Cathie Wood | TED

翻译人员: Yip Yan Yeung 校对人员: Yanyan Hong

Well, today, something is happening in technology

今天，科技领域正在上演一些

that has never happened before.

前所未有的事。

Five innovation platforms are evolving at the same time.

五个创新平台正在同时发展。

Never happened before.

以前从未发生过。

You have to go back to the early 1900s

你得回到 20 世纪初，

to see three platforms evolving at the same time.

才能看到三个平台同时发展。

You might call them general-purpose technology platforms.

你可以将它们称为“通用技术平台”。

Back then, it was telephone, electricity, automobile.

当时是电话、电力、汽车。

Game-changing.

天翻地覆。

Well, today we have five innovation platforms evolving at the same time.

眼下我们同时有五个 创新平台正在发展。

And they're changing growth dynamics incredibly.

它们也在极大地改变增长动态。

So they are highly catalyzed by artificial intelligence

如你所见，人工智能让它们大幅提速。

as you see here.

But robotics, energy storage, AI,

但是机器人、储能、AI、

blockchain technology and multiomic sequencing.

区块链技术和多组学测序。

The growth dynamics are changing

增长动态正在改变，

in a way, it reminds me, I got early in the business,

提醒了我，在我进入这行的早期，

the 1980s,

也就是 20 世纪 80 年代，

I was in meetings

我当时参加的会议

where the going assumption was growth,

都认为增长如果加速了，

if it accelerated,

it would decay very quickly back down to nominal GDP growth.

将迅速回落到名义 GDP 增长水平。

And that was a function of the horrors we had been through in the '70s.

这是我们在 70 年代 所经历的恐慌的结果。

So it was very hard to get investors to believe

很难让投资者相信

that there were companies out there

有公司可以产生生产率增长

that were going to help generate productivity growth

and actually have sustained growth rates.

并持续保持增长率。

We get into the internet time,

我们进入了互联网时代，

and we begin this experiment with AI:

开始了 AI 的实验：

recommendation engines, predictive AI,

推荐引擎、预测性人工智能，

some people would say “pretend AI.”

有些人会说“假装人工智能”。

And still again, after the tech and telecom bust,

同样，在科技和电信业萧条之后，

we're back in the same kind of environment

我们又回到了没有人

where no one believed that growth could be sustained.

相信增长可以持续的环境中。

And of course, the poster child became Amazon --

当然，亚马逊成了典范——

20-25 percent compound annual growth rates

在 20 到 25 年间的 复合年均增长率为 20-25％。

over 20-25 years.

So it was possible.

所以这是可能的。

And by the end of all of this, and actually today,

走到最后，其实如今

many people do believe in the FAANGs

许多人确实相信 FAANG （几家科技巨头），

and that growth will be sustained forever.

相信增长将永远持续下去。

And yet we're in another transformation.

然而，我们正在进行另一次转型。

We're into real AI.

我们有了真正的 AI。

So generative AI.

生成式 AI。

And we're also seeing these platforms,

我们还看到这些平台，

these general-purpose technology platforms, converge.

这些通用技术平台正在融合。

So AI, and I know you're hearing a lot about it here,

AI，我知道最近总是听到它的消息，

according to our work, our chief futurist Brett Winton and his team,

根据我们的研究，我们的首席未来学家 布雷特·温顿（Brett Winton）及其团队，

artificial intelligence training costs are dropping 70 percent per year.

表示人工智能的训练成本 每年会下降 70％。

What used to happen with Moore's law in two years

以前根据摩尔定律要花上两年的事，

is now happening in six months.

现在只要六个月。

We're moving from linear growth, which was that first,

我们正在从最初的线性增长，

to this belief that exponential growth,

转而相信指数式增长，

so sustained rapid growth in the case of Amazon,

以亚马逊为例， 如此持续的快速增长，

finally believe that, in the investment community,

投资界终于相信，

the FAANGs are the poster children

FAANG 是我们 这个生成式 AI 世界的标杆，

we're in this new world with generative AI,

five platforms converging here.

五个平台在此融合。

And investors now think that those same companies

投资者现在认为，同样是这些公司

are going to be the big beneficiaries this time.

也会成为这个时代的最大受益人。

Now, some might, but the history of technology is, they probably won't.

有些公司可能是， 但从科技的历史来看，可能不是。

If you look at technology indices

如果你看一下 二三十年以前的科技指数，

from, you know, 20 years ago, 30 years ago,

the top 10, even in technology, are typically not the top 10 today.

即使在科技领域，前 10 名 通常也不是如今的前 10 名。

I think Microsoft has been a very big exception to that.

我认为微软在这一方面 是个很大的例外。

So here we are.

我们来到了这个时代。

And what does this mean?

意味着什么？

Convergence, generative AI.

融合，生成式 AI。

Well, it means explosive growth opportunities.

意味着爆炸性的增长机会。

I’m going to give you one example:

我想举个例子：

autonomous taxi platforms.

自动驾驶出租车平台。

Autonomous taxi platforms are going to be the convergence

自动驾驶出租车平台将融合

of three of these major, general-purpose technology platforms:

其中三个主要的通用技术平台：

robotics,

机器人，

autonomous vehicles are robots;

自动驾驶汽车是机器人；

energy storage, they will be electric;

储能，它们将是电动的；

and artificial intelligence,

人工智能，

they will be powered by AI.

它们将由 AI 驱动。

This one opportunity, we think,

我们认为，这一机会

in the next five to 10 years

在未来五到十年中，

is going to scale to a revenue opportunity

将从现在几乎为零的收入机会

of eight to 10 trillion dollars, from essentially nothing now.

增长到八到十万亿美元。

Now for perspective, global GDP today,

相较而言，今天的全球 GDP，

all of global GDP today,

今天全球的 GDP 总额，

is not much more than 100 trillion dollars.

不超过 100 万亿美元。

And here, we're telling you, in the next five to 10 years,

我要说的是， 在未来五到十年中，

we're going to see up to 10 trillion in gross revenues,

我们将看到高达 10 万亿美元的总收入，

with the platform companies getting half of that.

而平台公司将拿走其中一半。

If the platform companies get half of that, four to five trillion,

如果平台公司获得其中的一半， 即四到五万亿美元，

they're probably going to be worth

他们的价值可能

somewhere in the 20 to 50 trillion-dollar range.

会在 20 到 50 万亿美元之间。

Now, that's just one example of convergence

这只是融合

and generative AI combining

和生成式 AI 相结合

to create an explosive growth opportunity.

创造爆炸性增长机会的一个例子。

Now, for the economy as a whole,

就整个经济而言，

we believe that GDP growth is going to accelerate.

我们认为 GDP 增长将加速。

Now we've been in an environment

多年来，我们一直处于 平均增长 2％ 至 3％ 的环境中。

of two to three percent growth on average for years.

And if you go back in history,

如果你回顾历史，

the history of technology

科技的历史

is you get jump starts in growth

就是你可以快速开始增长，

to completely new rates of change.

达到变化率的新高度。

And very often the jump is between three and five times

而且涨幅通常是

先前增长率的三到五倍。

what the previous growth rate was.

We think we're in such a time now

我们认为我们现在正处在这样的时代

because the artificial intelligence

因为人工智能

and the convergence of these platforms

和这些平台的融合

is going to generate enormous productivity growth

将带来我们从未见过的 巨大生产率增长。

the likes of which we have never seen.

So there are today roughly a billion knowledge workers,

如今全世界大约有十亿知识工作者，

and their wages and compensation,

他们的工资和薪酬

roughly 32 trillion dollars

大约为 32 万亿美元，

around the world.

以全球计算。

We think they're going to become four times more productive.

我们认为他们的生产力将提高四倍。

And typically,

通常，

productivity gains result in rapid growth gains

生产率的提高会导致快速增长

much lower than expected inflation.

远低于预期的通货膨胀。

And if we're right,

如果我们是对的，

the GDP growth --

那么 GDP 增长——

and I know this sounds crazy,

我知道这听起来很离谱，

and most people think we’re crazy when we say things like this --

我们说这些话的时候， 很多人都认为我们疯了。

but we really do believe that real GDP growth around the world

但我们确实相信， 全球的实际 GDP 增长

is going to accelerate from that two to three percent range

将从 2％ 到 3％ 的范围加速

into the six to nine percent range,

至 6％ 至 9％ 的区间，

and a lot of that will be productivity-driven.

其中很大一部分将由生产率驱动。

With productivity comes tremendous wealth creation.

生产率创造了巨额财富。

Productivity can end up in three places.

生产率最终可以去向三个方面。

It can end up in profits.

可以是利润。

It can end up in wages going up as employees become more productive.

随着员工工作效率的提高， 最终可能会导致工资上涨。

And we think that will happen as well.

我们认为这也会发生。

And/or,

而且，或者，

and it's probably all three,

可能是三者兼而有之，

lower prices, deflation.

价格下跌，通货紧缩。

That’s the other thing I don’t think people are expecting out there:

我认为这是 人们没想到的另一件事：

deflation.

通货紧缩。

We think we're heading into a highly deflationary period.

我们认为我们正在 进入高度通货紧缩时期。

And all you hear today is inflation, inflation.

而你今天听到的 只是通货膨胀、通货膨胀。

And you've got monetary policy focused on lagging indicators of inflation

而且，货币政策 侧重于滞后的通货膨胀指标

and jacking interest rates up.

和提高利率。

So yes, this is why the financial markets are in a funk.

是的，这就是 金融市场陷入困境的原因。

The Fed believes we're in an inflation-prone economy like the '70s.

美联储认为，我们处在像 70 年代 这样容易通货膨胀的经济体中。

We are not.

我们不是。

We went through a massive supply chain shock

在过去的几年中，

我们经历了大规模的供应链冲击，

in the last few years,

and we believe that is unwinding.

我们相信这种冲击正在缓和。

And that Fed policy is going to ensure that we end up with falling prices,

而美联储的政策将保证物价下跌，

which means margins are falling.

意味着利润率正在下降。

Innovation solves problems.

创新可以解决问题。

AI and these new technologies will enhance margins.

AI 和这些新技术可以提高利润率。

So we think, during this time,

因此，我们认为，在这个时代中，

and I think we're seeing it empirically,

我们也参考了过往经验，

that these innovations are gaining more traction today:

这些创新如今正变得越来越受欢迎：

better, faster, cheaper,

更好、更快、更便宜、

more productive, more creative products and services.

更具生产力、更具创造性的 产品和服务。

And so we're pretty excited about the next few years.

因此，我们对接下来的几年 感到非常兴奋。

And do believe that the Fed is making a mistake,

而且一定要相信美联储 犯了一个错误，

that something out there,

正在发生的情况，

we thought it was the regional bank crisis in early March,

我们以为是 3 月初的 地区性银行危机，

no,

不，

something out there will telegraph to the Fed,

发生的事会传达给美联储，

that the fight now is not against inflation,

现在的斗争不是对抗通货膨胀，

and that real growth is not inflationary.

实际增长也不是通货膨胀。

In fact, if you get real growth, productivity-driven, real growth,

其实如果你实现了真正的增长、 由生产率驱动的实际增长，

it is disinflationary if not deflationary.

那么即使不是通货紧缩， 它也会抑制通货膨胀。

So we're pretty excited about the next five to 10 years.

因此，我们对接下来的五到十年 感到非常兴奋。

And so what's the bottom line of all of this,

那么，底线是什么呢？

if we're so excited

如果我们如此兴奋

and think we're going to get beyond the macro environment?

并认为我们将超越宏观环境。

So this is what we think is going to happen

我们认为将会发生这种情况：

thanks to the convergence of those five

由于这五个

general-purpose technology platforms.

通用技术平台的融合，

What you see here is a chart,

这是一张图表，

and the blue part is disruptive or transformative innovation.

蓝色部分是颠覆性或变革性创新。

Today, it is valued in the global equity markets,

如今，它在全球股市中，

both public and private,

包括公开市场和私募市场，

at roughly 13 trillion dollars.

市值大约为 13 万亿美元。

That's a little more than 10 percent

略高于全球股票市场

of all global equity market valuation.

总市值的 10％。

We believe that is going to scale,

我们相信，它会增长，

thanks to the convergence of these platforms

得益于这些平台的融合

and the explosive growth opportunities that they will provide,

以其提供的爆炸性增长机会，

to more than 200 trillion dollars.

增长至超过 200 万亿美元。

That is a 40 percent compound annual growth rate.

这是 40％ 的复合年增长率。

It's very hard to believe, I know.

我知道难以置信。

In the markets, they do think we're a little crazy.

市场中的人确实认为我们有点疯狂。

But the building blocks of our confidence here,

但是，我们对此怀有信心的基石

comes from our research around these platforms.

来自我们对这些平台的研究。

40 percent compound annual rate of growth

40％的复合年增长率

makes sense in the world of accelerated real GDP,

在实际 GDP 加快增长、

very low inflation

通货膨胀率非常低

and very high productivity.

和生产率非常高的世界中是合理的。

And the number I threw out

而我刚说到的数字，

just for autonomous taxi platforms is in that 200 trillion.

仅自动驾驶出租车平台 就有 200 万亿。

It's somewhere,

其中某一个领域，一个机会就值 20 到 50 万亿美元。

alone, that one opportunity is between 20 and 50 trillion dollars.

Now what's the other message from this chart?

这张图表中还表达了什么信息？

The other message is

另一条信息是

that besides disruptive innovation

除了颠覆性创新

being a very good place to invest,

是一个很好的投资领域外，

is that the other side of disruptive innovation

颠覆性创新的另一面

is creative destruction.

是创造性破坏。

And we're going to -- I just described autonomous taxi platforms,

我刚才提到了自动驾驶出租车平台

that is going to transform all of transportation

它将彻底改变所有的交通

and mobility completely.

和出行方式。

The convergence of artificial intelligence,

人工智能、

multiomic sequencing

多组学测序

and one the other technologies underlying, CRISPR gene editing,

和另一种底层技术， 即 CRISPR 基因编辑的融合，

is going to transform health care.

将改变医疗保健。

We think blockchain technology and artificial intelligence --

我们认为区块链技术和人工智能——

we did a fascinating podcast

我们做了一个有趣的播客

on the convergence between those two --

讨论这两者之间的融合，

is going to transform not only

改变的不仅是

the entire financial services sector,

整个金融服务业，

but is going to lead to a whole new area

还将在数字领域开辟一个

of property rights in the digital realm.

全新的产权领域。

A lot of young people today

现在有许多年轻人

spend more than half of their discretionary time online.

将一半以上的闲暇时间花在网上。

That's where they're interested in staking out property rights.

这就是他们对界定产权感兴趣的场合。

So we're pretty excited about that as well.

我们对此也感到非常兴奋。

Many people ask me,

很多人问我，

we have a lot of doubters out there,

我们有很多质疑声，

which I think you probably know about,

我想你们也知道，

how we maintain our conviction in this kind of forecast.

我们是如何坚定这种预测的。

And our conviction has not wavered.

我们的信念没有动摇。

In fact, it's increased over the last five years,

其实在过去的五年中，还增加了，

and the numbers have grown larger

越来越多，

because of the breakthroughs in AI

由于 AI 的突破，

that we didn't even expect to happen this quickly.

我们甚至没想到会如此迅速地发生，

The courage of our conviction comes from our research.

我们坚定信念的勇气 来自于我们的研究。

First principles research,

第一原理研究，

white sheet of paper,

一张白纸从头做起，

you know, how is this new world going to work?

这个新世界将如何运作？

So as I say, make sure,

正如我所说，

given all the creative destruction

在即将出现的各种创造性破坏面前，

that there is going to be out there,

to get on the right side of change and hang on for the ride.

一定要站在变革中 正确的一边，坚持下去。

Ignore the noise.

忽略噪音。

Because truth will win out, and the opportunities are enormous.

因为真理会胜出，机会是巨大的。

Thank you.

谢谢。

(Applause)

（掌声）