Why AI Will Spark Exponential Economic Growth | Cathie Wood | TED

譯者: 至磊Zi Le 黃Ng 審譯者: Shelley Tsang 曾雯海

Well, today, something is happening in technology

現今，科技方面發生了一些

以前從來沒有發生過的事。

that has never happened before.

Five innovation platforms are evolving at the same time.

有五個創新平台同時發展。

Never happened before.

以前未曾發生。

You have to go back to the early 1900s

你必須回到 1900 年代初期

to see three platforms evolving at the same time.

才能看到三個平台同時在發展。

You might call them general-purpose technology platforms.

你可以稱它們為通用技術平台。

Back then, it was telephone, electricity, automobile.

那時，是電話、電力、汽車。

Game-changing.

改變遊戲規則。

Well, today we have five innovation platforms evolving at the same time.

而現今，

有五個創新平台同時在發展。

And they're changing growth dynamics incredibly.

它們正在大大改變成長的動能。

So they are highly catalyzed by artificial intelligence

它們高度受到人工智慧的驅動，

as you see here.

就如你們所見。

But robotics, energy storage, AI,

它們是機器人技術、 能源儲存、人工智慧、

blockchain technology and multiomic sequencing.

區塊鏈技術、多組學定序。

The growth dynamics are changing

成長動能正在改變，

in a way, it reminds me, I got early in the business,

在某種層面上，這讓我想起， 我很早期就進入這個行業，

the 1980s,

那時是 1980 年代，

I was in meetings

我在一場會議中，

where the going assumption was growth,

當時的假設是如果成長加速，

if it accelerated,

it would decay very quickly back down to nominal GDP growth.

它非常快就會降回 名目國內生產毛額成長。

And that was a function of the horrors we had been through in the '70s.

那是我們在 1970 年代經歷的 可怕事件造成的結果。

So it was very hard to get investors to believe

因此，非常難讓投資人相信

that there were companies out there

市面上有些公司將能夠

that were going to help generate productivity growth

協助促成生產力成長， 且確實維持同樣的成長率。

and actually have sustained growth rates.

We get into the internet time,

我們進入網際網路時代，

and we begin this experiment with AI:

我們開始實驗人工智慧：

recommendation engines, predictive AI,

推薦引擎、預測性人工智慧， 有些人稱之為「偽人工智慧」。

some people would say “pretend AI.”

And still again, after the tech and telecom bust,

又一次，在科技和電信泡沫破滅後，

we're back in the same kind of environment

我們又回到同一種環境中，

where no one believed that growth could be sustained.

沒人相信成長可以持續。

And of course, the poster child became Amazon --

當然，亞馬遜成為 表現最佳的公司——

在 20 至 25 年間

20-25 percent compound annual growth rates

有 20～25% 的複合年成長率。

over 20-25 years.

So it was possible.

所以，這是可能的。

And by the end of all of this, and actually today,

在這一切結束時，實際上直到如今，

many people do believe in the FAANGs

許多人確實對科技巨擘有信心，

and that growth will be sustained forever.

也相信成長能持續到永遠。

And yet we're in another transformation.

但我們正身處另一次轉變中。

We're into real AI.

我們正要進入真正的人工智慧。

So generative AI.

生成式人工智慧。

And we're also seeing these platforms,

我們也看到

這些通用技術平台相互融合。

these general-purpose technology platforms, converge.

So AI, and I know you're hearing a lot about it here,

我知道各位在這裡聽了 很多關於人工智慧的內容，

according to our work, our chief futurist Brett Winton and his team,

根據我們的研究，

我們的首席未來學家 布萊特．溫頓及他的團隊，

artificial intelligence training costs are dropping 70 percent per year.

人工智慧的訓練成本 每年下降百分之七十。

What used to happen with Moore's law in two years

以往根據摩爾定律 在兩年內會發生的現象，

is now happening in six months.

現在只需要六個月。

We're moving from linear growth, which was that first,

我們正在從一開始的線性成長

to this belief that exponential growth,

轉為相信指數成長，

so sustained rapid growth in the case of Amazon,

亞馬遜案例中的持續快速成長，

finally believe that, in the investment community,

投資界終於相信

the FAANGs are the poster children

科技巨擘可以大放異彩。

we're in this new world with generative AI,

我們身處生成式人工智慧的新世界，

five platforms converging here.

五個平台在這裡融合。

And investors now think that those same companies

投資者現在認為相同的企業

are going to be the big beneficiaries this time.

這次也會成為最大的受益者。

Now, some might, but the history of technology is, they probably won't.

有些企業可能獲益，

但從科技的歷史看來， 他們大概不會是最大贏家。

If you look at technology indices

如果你去看科技股票指數，

from, you know, 20 years ago, 30 years ago,

從二、三十年前開始看，

the top 10, even in technology, are typically not the top 10 today.

科技業最大的十家企業 通常不會是今日的前十強。

I think Microsoft has been a very big exception to that.

我認為微軟是一個很大的例外。

So here we are.

問題來了，

And what does this mean?

這意味著什麼？

Convergence, generative AI.

融合、生成式人工智慧。

Well, it means explosive growth opportunities.

這代表爆炸性成長的機會。

I’m going to give you one example:

我要給你們舉一個例子：

autonomous taxi platforms.

自動駕駛計程車平台。

Autonomous taxi platforms are going to be the convergence

自動駕駛計程車平台融合了

of three of these major, general-purpose technology platforms:

主要通用技術平台之中的三個：

robotics,

機器人技術，

autonomous vehicles are robots;

自動駕駛汽車是一種機器人；

energy storage, they will be electric;

能源儲存，它們會是電動車；

and artificial intelligence,

人工智慧，

they will be powered by AI.

它們將由人工智慧驅動。

This one opportunity, we think,

我們認為這個機會

in the next five to 10 years

在接下來的五到十年

is going to scale to a revenue opportunity

將成長為八到十兆美元的獲益機會，

of eight to 10 trillion dollars, from essentially nothing now.

從現在的什麼都沒有開始。

Now for perspective, global GDP today,

看看現今的全球國民生產毛額，

all of global GDP today,

今天全球所有的國民生產毛額

is not much more than 100 trillion dollars.

不超過 100 兆美元。

And here, we're telling you, in the next five to 10 years,

我們正在告訴你， 在未來的五到十年間，

we're going to see up to 10 trillion in gross revenues,

我們會看到總收入最高達十億美元，

with the platform companies getting half of that.

而這個平台的企業會獲得其中一半。

If the platform companies get half of that, four to five trillion,

如果平台企業拿到其中的一半， 也就是四到五兆美元，

they're probably going to be worth

他們的價值可能會來到

somewhere in the 20 to 50 trillion-dollar range.

20 至 50 兆美元之間。

Now, that's just one example of convergence

這只是平台融合的一個例子，

and generative AI combining

跟生成式人工智慧結合，

to create an explosive growth opportunity.

創造出爆炸性成長的機會。

Now, for the economy as a whole,

對於整個經濟體而言，

we believe that GDP growth is going to accelerate.

我們相信國民生產毛額 將會加速成長。

Now we've been in an environment

多年來，我們一直處在 年平均成長率 2-3% 的環境中。

of two to three percent growth on average for years.

And if you go back in history,

如果你回顧歷史，

the history of technology

科技的歷史就是成長出現飛躍，

is you get jump starts in growth

to completely new rates of change.

到達全新的成長率。

And very often the jump is between three and five times

這個飛躍很常介於 以往成長率的三到五倍之間。

what the previous growth rate was.

We think we're in such a time now

我們認為人類正處於這樣的時刻，

because the artificial intelligence

因為人工智慧以及這些平台的融合

and the convergence of these platforms

is going to generate enormous productivity growth

將會帶來巨大的生產力成長，

the likes of which we have never seen.

我們從未見過的那種成長。

So there are today roughly a billion knowledge workers,

全世界現今有大約 十億的知識工作者，

and their wages and compensation,

他們的薪資和酬勞

roughly 32 trillion dollars

大約有 32 兆美元。

around the world.

We think they're going to become four times more productive.

我們認為他們的生產力 將提高為四倍。

And typically,

通常，

productivity gains result in rapid growth gains

生產力提升會造成快速的成長，

much lower than expected inflation.

遠低於預期的通貨膨脹。

And if we're right,

如果我們是正確的，

the GDP growth --

國民生產毛額的成長——

and I know this sounds crazy,

我知道這聽起來很瘋狂，

and most people think we’re crazy when we say things like this --

當我們這麼說， 大多數人都認為我們瘋了——

but we really do believe that real GDP growth around the world

但我們真的相信全球的 實質國民生產毛額成長率

is going to accelerate from that two to three percent range

會從 2-3% 加速到 6-9%，

into the six to nine percent range,

and a lot of that will be productivity-driven.

其中很大一部分將來自於生產力。

With productivity comes tremendous wealth creation.

伴隨生產力而來的是 巨大的財富創造。

Productivity can end up in three places.

生產力會反映在三個面向。

It can end up in profits.

它最後可以帶來利潤。

It can end up in wages going up as employees become more productive.

隨著員工更有生產力， 它最後也可以促使工資上升。

And we think that will happen as well.

我們認為這也會發生。

And/or,

還有，或者，

and it's probably all three,

三個面向全部都有，

lower prices, deflation.

物價下跌，通貨緊縮。

That’s the other thing I don’t think people are expecting out there:

這是我認為人們沒有想到的事情：

deflation.

通貨緊縮。

We think we're heading into a highly deflationary period.

我們認為人類正朝向 高度通貨緊縮的時期。

And all you hear today is inflation, inflation.

你們現今聽到的都是通貨膨脹。

And you've got monetary policy focused on lagging indicators of inflation

而且貨幣政策聚焦在通膨的落後指標

and jacking interest rates up.

還有提高利率。

So yes, this is why the financial markets are in a funk.

是的，這就是金融市場低迷的原因。

The Fed believes we're in an inflation-prone economy like the '70s.

聯準會認為我們處在 1970 年代 那種高通膨的經濟。

We are not.

我們沒有。

We went through a massive supply chain shock

在最近幾年中， 我們遇到巨大的供應鏈衝擊，

in the last few years,

and we believe that is unwinding.

而我們相信這正在緩和。

And that Fed policy is going to ensure that we end up with falling prices,

聯準會的政策在確保 我們可以使物價下跌，

which means margins are falling.

這代表利潤會下跌。

Innovation solves problems.

創新會解決問題。

AI and these new technologies will enhance margins.

人工智慧和這些新科技 將會增加利潤。

So we think, during this time,

因此我們認為，在這段期間，

and I think we're seeing it empirically,

我認為我們是以務實的態度看待它，

that these innovations are gaining more traction today:

這些創新如今變得越來越受歡迎：

better, faster, cheaper,

更好、更快、更便宜、

more productive, more creative products and services.

更有生產力和創造力的產品和服務。

And so we're pretty excited about the next few years.

所以我們對接下來幾年非常振奮。

And do believe that the Fed is making a mistake,

而且我們相信聯準會正在犯錯，

that something out there,

有些事情，

we thought it was the regional bank crisis in early March,

我們認為是三月初的 地區性銀行危機，

no,

something out there will telegraph to the Fed,

有些事情會告訴聯準會，

that the fight now is not against inflation,

現在不該對通膨展開鬥爭，

and that real growth is not inflationary.

那是實質的成長而非通貨膨脹。

In fact, if you get real growth, productivity-driven, real growth,

事實上若有生產力驅動的實質成長，

it is disinflationary if not deflationary.

假如沒有通縮至少也會降低通膨。

So we're pretty excited about the next five to 10 years.

所以我們對接下來的 五到十年相當振奮。

And so what's the bottom line of all of this,

所以這一切的重點是什麼？

if we're so excited

如果我們這麼興奮，

and think we're going to get beyond the macro environment?

而且認為我們將會超越大環境。

So this is what we think is going to happen

這是我們認為將會發生的事情，

thanks to the convergence of those five

得益於這五個

general-purpose technology platforms.

通用技術平台的融合。

What you see here is a chart,

你們在這裡看到一張圖表，

and the blue part is disruptive or transformative innovation.

藍色部分是破壞性或變革性的創新。

Today, it is valued in the global equity markets,

如今，它在全球股市的價值，

both public and private,

包含私募與公募股權，

at roughly 13 trillion dollars.

大約是 13 兆美元。

That's a little more than 10 percent

稍微超過百分之十的

of all global equity market valuation.

全球股市市值。

We believe that is going to scale,

我們相信其規模將會擴張，

thanks to the convergence of these platforms

得益於這些平台的融合

and the explosive growth opportunities that they will provide,

與它們將提供的爆炸性成長機會，

to more than 200 trillion dollars.

擴張到超過 200 兆美元。

That is a 40 percent compound annual growth rate.

那是 40% 的複合年成長率。

It's very hard to believe, I know.

我知道這非常難以置信。

In the markets, they do think we're a little crazy.

在市場上，他們確實 認為我們有點瘋狂。

But the building blocks of our confidence here,

但我們有這種信心的基石

comes from our research around these platforms.

源自於我們對這些平台的研究。

40 percent compound annual rate of growth

40% 的複合年成長率是有道理的，

makes sense in the world of accelerated real GDP,

若全球實質國民生產毛額加速成長，

very low inflation

通貨膨脹率非常低，

and very high productivity.

生產力非常高。

And the number I threw out

我提供的僅包含自動駕駛計程車的數字

just for autonomous taxi platforms is in that 200 trillion.

也包含在那 200 兆中。

It's somewhere,

單單這個機會的價值

alone, that one opportunity is between 20 and 50 trillion dollars.

就在 20 至 50 兆美元之間。

Now what's the other message from this chart?

這張圖表的另一個訊息是什麼？

The other message is

另一個訊息是，

that besides disruptive innovation

除了破壞性創新

being a very good place to invest,

是很好的投資標的外，

is that the other side of disruptive innovation

破壞性創新的另一面是創造性破壞。

is creative destruction.

And we're going to -- I just described autonomous taxi platforms,

我們將會——我才剛講過 自動駕駛計程車平台，

that is going to transform all of transportation

它會完全改變 所有交通方式和流動性。

and mobility completely.

The convergence of artificial intelligence,

結合人工智慧、

multiomic sequencing

多組學定序，

and one the other technologies underlying, CRISPR gene editing,

與另一種潛在的科技 CRISPR 基因編輯，

is going to transform health care.

將改變醫療保健。

We think blockchain technology and artificial intelligence --

我們認為區塊鏈技術和人工智慧——

we did a fascinating podcast

我們做了一個引人入勝的播客，

on the convergence between those two --

討論這兩者的融合——

is going to transform not only

將會改變不只是

the entire financial services sector,

整個金融服務業，

but is going to lead to a whole new area

也會在數位領域

of property rights in the digital realm.

帶來財產權的新世界。

A lot of young people today

現在很多年輕人

spend more than half of their discretionary time online.

花費超過一半的自主時間在網路上。

That's where they're interested in staking out property rights.

這是他們對表明財產權 有興趣的地方。

So we're pretty excited about that as well.

所以我們也對此相當興奮。

Many people ask me,

很多人問我，

we have a lot of doubters out there,

我們面對這麼多質疑者，

which I think you probably know about,

我想你們大概也知道，

how we maintain our conviction in this kind of forecast.

我們怎麼維持對這種預測的信念？

And our conviction has not wavered.

我們的信念未曾動搖。

In fact, it's increased over the last five years,

事實上在過去五年我們更加堅定，

and the numbers have grown larger

這些數字也成長得更高，

because of the breakthroughs in AI

因為人工智慧的突破

that we didn't even expect to happen this quickly.

發生得比我們的預期還快。

The courage of our conviction comes from our research.

我們對這股信念的勇氣 來自我們的研究。

First principles research,

第一原理的研究，

white sheet of paper,

從一張白紙開始，

you know, how is this new world going to work?

你知道，這個新世界將會怎麼運作？

So as I say, make sure,

如我所言，請堅定信心，

given all the creative destruction

給定所有即將發生的創造性破壞，

that there is going to be out there,

to get on the right side of change and hang on for the ride.

站在正確的一邊，搭上這場變革。

Ignore the noise.

忽略那些雜音。

Because truth will win out, and the opportunities are enormous.

因為真相將會獲勝， 而這些機會極其巨大。

Thank you.

謝謝。

(Applause)

（掌聲）