How Ancient Arctic Carbon Threatens Everyone on the Planet | Sue Natali | TED

翻译人员: 阳 姜 校对人员: Ziyao Wang

So whenever I tell people I’m an Arctic scientist,

每当我说我是研究 北极地区的科学家时，

the first thing that they always ask me is: How cold is it up there?

人们一开口就会问我：

北极有多冷？

(Laughter)

（笑声）

And yeah, the Arctic can get pretty cold.

确实，北极很冷。

Trust me when I tell you

我不得不说，

that working outside at -40 degrees is really, really challenging.

在零下四十度的室外工作 确实是艰巨的挑战。

But in the summer of 2019,

但在2019年的夏季，

it was anything but cold.

北极地区一点也不冷。

So that summer I was working with my research team

那个夏天我和我的研究团队

在阿拉斯加育空地区的 卡斯克奎姆河三角洲从事研究。

in Alaska’s Yukon Kuskokwim Delta

on the traditional lands of the Yup’ik and Cup’ik people.

那里曾是尤皮克人（Yup’ik） 和库普克人（Cup’ik）的地盘。

And we were up there hauling hundreds of pounds of equipment

当我们携带着数百磅重的仪器

across the tundra in the middle of a record-breaking heatwave.

穿行在那里的苔原地带时， 我们遇到了空前的热浪。

It was 90 degrees Fahrenheit.

气温达到90华氏度 （约32.2摄氏度）。

There was no breeze,

那里没有风，

nowhere to go for a shade

也没有任何荫蔽之处，

and seemingly endless miles of tundra as far as my eyes could see.

在我视野里的 是一望无际的苔原。

To make matters worse,

更糟的是，

the land had drastically changed

我们一年前才来过这里， 如今大地已经有了巨大变化。

since we had been here just one year before.

The ground was sinking and it was cracking.

地面在沉降和破裂。

In places, it was literally collapsing beneath my feet.

在有些地方， 我脚下的土地甚至在崩解。

I’ve been working in the Arctic for more than a decade,

我在北极区域研究超过十年，

and I had never seen changes happening this rapidly ever before.

我以前从未见过如此迅速的改变。

The changes we saw were remarkable,

这些改变十分异常，

and they were also really concerning.

也着实令人忧心。

But we were there to measure changes that we couldn’t see.

但我们去那里是为了测量 我们无法感知的改变。

We were there to fill a major gap in our understanding

我们要填补我们 认知上的不足，

of how the changing Arctic is impacting the Earth’s climate.

了解北极的改变 对地球气候的影响。

So we were installing what’s called an “eddy covariance tower,”

所以我们安装了一个被称为 “涡度协方差塔”的装置，

which is a series of instruments

这种装置由多种仪器构成，

that measures the exchange of greenhouse gases,

用于测量地面与大气

like carbon dioxide and methane,

温室气体的交换，

between the land and the atmosphere.

例如二氧化碳和甲烷。

It’s essentially like measuring the Earth’s breath.

这就像是在测量地球的呼吸。

And so the reason the land around us was collapsing

我们周围的土地之所以崩塌

is because the once permanently frozen ground called permafrost

是因为曾经的永久冻土， 即长期冰冻的土地，

was starting to thaw.

正在不断融化。

And once it thaws,

一旦永久冻土开始融化，

that collapsing ground can drastically alter

坍塌的土地会彻底改变

北极地区大片的 苔原和北部针叶林，

the vast expanse of the Arctic’s tundra and boreal forest,

and it can also threaten the homes and lifeways

这也威胁着北极地区居民的 家园和生活方式。

of Arctic residents.

Just imagine if the ground beneath your home

试着想象你家下面的土地 突然开始下沉。

suddenly started to sink.

That's what's happening across the Arctic.

这就是北极地区 正在经历的事情。

But thawing permafrost also threatens everyone on the planet

永久冻土的融化 也威胁着地球上的每个人，

because it stores a massive amount of ancient frozen carbon.

因为永久冻土封存着 大量被冰封的远古碳。

And when that carbon thaws,

当冰封的碳融化时，

it can be released into the atmosphere as greenhouse gases,

它作为温室气体 释放到大气中，

leading to more warming and more thaw.

促使气候更加温暖 和更多永久冻土融化。

So let me place the magnitude of this problem in perspective for you.

让我带你们正确认识 这个问题的严重性。

By the end of this century,

在本世纪末，

greenhouse gas emissions from thawing permafrost

由永久冻土融化 释放的温室气体

may be on par with some of the world’s leading greenhouse-gas-emitting nations,

会与一些主要国家的 温室气体排放量相当，

perhaps as large as or larger than emissions from the United States,

或许和美国的排放量相当， 也许更多，

the second-largest greenhouse-gas-emitting country in the world.

美国目前是世界第二大 温室气体排放国。

And you know, I want to point out, this is not a new phenomena.

我想强调的是， 这不是一个新现象。

Arctic residents and scientists

北极地区的居民和科学家们 已经观测了数十年的永久冻土融化。

have been observing permafrost thaw now for decades.

But the scale of the research hasn’t been sufficient

但他们的研究规模还不足以 应对这一巨大挑战。

to meet this enormous challenge.

Because no one country is directly responsible for permafrost thaw,

因为没有国家对永久冻土融化 负有直接责任，

no single nation has taken responsibility for fully monitoring

没有哪个国家能够 独自承担测量和追踪

and tracking its impact across the Arctic.

永久冻土融化 对北极的影响的责任。

And this is not a case where ignorance is bliss,

这里根本不存在 无知是福这一说法，

because what doesn't get measured doesn't get accounted for.

因为我们不会考虑 我们没有测量的数据。

Because we can’t put a precise number on permafrost emissions,

因为我们无法对冻土碳排放 进行准确测量，

policymakers are essentially excluding them,

政策制定者就直接忽略它，

setting global emissions targets that are wholly insufficient

制定无法让我们免于灾难性 气候变化的目标。

to protect us from catastrophic climate change.

Ignoring permafrost

忽视永久冻土就像遗漏了 一个温室气体排放大国，

is essentially like leaving a major greenhouse-gas-emitting country,

like the United States,

就像美国对全球气候磋商 置之不理，

out of global climate negotiations,

which is not a good idea.

这并不明智。

What we need to know is where permafrost is thawing across the Arctic

我们需要知道 北极哪里的永久冻土正在融化

and how fast,

和正以多快的速度融化，

what that means in terms of greenhouse gas emissions

这两个问题对温室气体排放 有什么影响

and how that will impact our climate in 10, 50 or 100 years from now.

及对未来10、50、100年的气候 产生什么影响。

Answering these questions requires a massive and integrated effort

回答这一问题需要进行 大规模、系统性的工作，

at a scale that matches the enormity of this problem.

与这一问题的严重性相匹配。

Thankfully, we have a plan.

幸运的是， 我们有一个方案。

Through an ambitious new initiative called Permafrost Pathways,

通过一个宏大的新方案 ——“永久冻土行动计划”，

we’ve formed a coalition of Arctic residents and scientists,

我们与北极地区的居民、 科学家、当地的有识之士

Indigenous knowledge-holders

以及在北极和气候政策议题上 有影响力的人物

and Arctic and climate policy influencers

to tackle this problem with the urgency it deserves.

形成联盟来解决这一急迫问题。

Recognizing that we cannot continue on our current climate trajectory,

我们意识到我们 不能维持现有的气候趋势。

we’ve brought this team together to think big

我们带领这个团队一起 开阔思维、大胆行动，

and to act boldly

and to work across boundaries

跨越界限合作，

to take us on a new pathway forward.

以使我们在新的道路上前进。

So to get started,

开始时，

the first thing that we need to do

我们的首要任务是

is to actually measure greenhouse gas emissions

准确测量整个北极地区 温室气体的排放。

across the entire Arctic.

Currently there are only a handful of monitoring towers across the Arctic

北极地区当前全年工作的 测量塔屈指可数，

that run year round

and that measure both important greenhouse gases,

它们测量两种重要的温室气体： 二氧化碳和甲烷。

carbon dioxide and methane.

So we’re working with a team of international scientific experts

所以我们与多国科学家合作，

to strategically identify and fill these monitoring gaps

有策略地识别和填补 这些测量空白区域，

by installing new equipment across the Arctic

在北极未被测量的偏远地区

in remote locations where monitoring currently doesn’t exist.

安装新型设备。

We believe that by installing just 10 new monitoring sites,

我们相信 10 个 新的测量地点

能大幅度提升我们估测 冻土释放温室气体量的准确性，

we can drastically improve our estimates of permafrost emissions,

which will remove a major barrier

这将消除将其纳入 全球气候政策范畴的障碍。

to their incorporation into the global climate policy.

And we’re coupling this on-the-ground monitoring

我们把地面测量 与高清卫星观测相结合

with high-resolution satellite observations

and advanced computer modeling

并使用先进的计算机建模，

so that we can track the changing Arctic in near real-time

因而我们能接近实时地 追踪北极的变化

and accurately project permafrost emissions into the future.

并准确预测永久冻土 在未来的排放量。

But state-of-the-art science just isn’t enough.

不过现有的科学 还有待提高。

We need to make sure that permafrost emissions are counted

我们要确保永久冻土的释放量 被计入全球排放目标中，

when setting global emissions targets,

because each year that we fail to account for permafrost is another year

因为每年未查明的 永久冻土释放量

that we become unwittingly locked-in to more severe climate warming.

都会使我们无意识地在下一年 陷入更加严重的气候变暖困境。

So we’re working with leading policy experts

所以我们与主要政策制定专家

to bring this new knowledge

一起将这些知识 传递给高层决策者，

to the table with the decision-makers at the highest level

to make sure that global climate policy is accounting for permafrost

以确保全球气候政策 将永久冻土考虑在内

and aiming for the right targets.

并设定正确的目标。

But the truth is,

然而事实是，

even with the most ambitious climate action,

即使有宏大的气候方案

some permafrost is going to thaw --

永久冻土也会融化—— 它正在融化。

that’s already happening.

Right now across the Arctic,

如今北极地区的人们

people are having to make extremely difficult decisions

不得不作出最艰难的决定，

about where and how to live

关于在哪里生活， 怎样生活，

in order to protect themselves and their families

以避免他们和家人 受到气候变化带来的伤害。

from the hazards of climate change.

So we’re working with our team members

我们与我们的团队成员

and our partners who live on permafrost

和住在永久冻土上的 伙伴们合作，

to bring these monitoring and modeling tools

引入这些测量 和建模工具

to assess the current and future impacts of permafrost thaw on Arctic communities,

来评估当前和未来 永久冻土融化对北极社区的影响，

and to co-create adaptation plans

并共同创造出一个 可取的方案

that protect and respect the health,

以维护北极地区居民的 健康、福祉和人权。

well-being

and human rights of Arctic residents.

These are the gaps we plan to fill.

这是我们要填补的空缺。

Painting a picture of the Arctic

描绘出我们从未见过的 北极的图景，

that we have never been able to see before,

and recognizing that ultimately,

并认识到气候危机 说到底是人权危机，

the climate crisis is a human rights crisis,

and it’s one that’s already underway.

并且这是正在发生的危机。

But through these actions that we take now,

通过我们采取的措施，

we can greatly reduce future harm

我们极大地减少了 未来的危害，

and take us on a more just and equitable journey.

我们正踏上更加公正的旅程。

Thank you.

谢谢。

(Applause and cheers)

（掌声和欢呼）