Dr. Anthony Fauci: Is the pandemic actually over? It's complicated | TED
64,307 views ・ 2022-09-22
请双击下面的英文字幕来播放视频。
翻译人员: Cindy Zheng-Huang
校对人员: Yanyan Hong
00:03
David Biello: In the wake
of Dr. Anthony Fauci's announcement
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大卫·比洛(David Biello):
随着安东尼·福奇博士
(Dr. Anthony Fauci)宣布
00:06
that he will be retiring
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他将卸任
00:08
as the head of the National Institute
of Allergy and Infectious Diseases
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国家过敏和传染病研究所所长
00:12
at the end of the year,
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于年底,
00:13
I've invited him to join me
for a conversation
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我邀请他与我来一场对话
00:16
on the future of the COVID-19 pandemic,
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关于 COVID-19 大流行的未来,
00:18
reflections on his career
and the future of public health.
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他对职业生涯的反思和
公共卫生的展望。
00:22
Please welcome Brooklyn's own Dr. Fauci.
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请欢迎布鲁克林独一无二的福奇博士!
00:25
Anthony Fauci: Hi, David, nice to see you,
thank you for having me.
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AF: 你好,大卫,很高兴见到你,
谢谢你请我来。
00:28
DB: Thank you for joining us.
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DB:感谢您加入我们。
00:30
So my first question is very simple.
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我第一个问题很简单。
00:34
Is the COVID-19 pandemic over?
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COVID-19 大流行结束了吗?
00:38
AF: You know, David,
there's a lot of misinterpretation
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AF: 你知道,大卫,这里有很多误解,
00:40
about what the meaning
of the word "over" is,
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对于“结束”这个词的含义,
00:43
it means different things
to different people.
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对不同的人意味着不同的事。
00:45
I'm sure you're referring to the comment
made by the President a day or two ago.
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我相信你指的是
总统一两天前做的评论。
00:51
If you're talking about the fulminant
phase of the outbreak,
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如果你说的是暴发流行期,
00:56
when we were having anywhere from
800,000 to 900,000 infections a day
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当我们每天有 80 万至 90 万例感染,
01:01
and 3,000 to 4,000 deaths per day,
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每日死亡三千至四千人,
01:04
that was several months ago.
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那是几个月前的事了。
01:07
We are much, much better off now
than we were then.
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我们现在比当时的情形要好,
好很多了。
01:11
So in that case,
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所以从这看来,
01:14
that fulminant phase
of the outbreak is behind us.
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那个疫情暴发阶段已经过去了。
01:18
But as the President made very clear
on the second half of his sentence,
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但正如总统明确表示,
在他的后半句,
01:24
is that, which they don't seem to show,
is that he actually said
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就是那,似乎没有显现出来,
就是他真正说的,
01:29
we still have a lot of work to do,
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我们还有很多工作要做,
01:30
there's still a challenge ahead,
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前面还有挑战,
01:32
we’ve got to get people vaccinated.
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我们还要让人们接种疫苗。
01:34
We still have a number of cases,
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我们还有很多病例,
01:35
we have 400 deaths per day.
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我们每天有四百人死亡。
01:39
That's an unacceptably high level.
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这是个无法接受的高水平。
01:41
So again, it depends on the semantics
of what your definition is.
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所以再次, 这取决于对词意
你的解释是什么。
01:45
We don't want anyone to get the impression
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我们不想让任何人觉得
01:49
that we don't have a lot of work to do.
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我们没有很多工作要做。
01:51
We've got to get the level of infection
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我们必须使感染水平
01:54
considerably lower than it is.
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比现在低很多。
01:56
And we've certainly got to get
the level of deaths lower than it is.
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我们当然要让死亡人数
低于目前水平。
02:01
So again, it depends on the semantics
of what you mean by "end."
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同样,这取决于语义
你所说的“结束”是什么意思。
02:05
DB: Well, let's get
into those semantics then.
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那么,让我们进入这些语义。
02:08
What conditions would need to exist
for the pandemic to be over?
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需要具备什么条件才是大流行结束?
02:12
AF: You know, that's a call
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AF: 你知道,这是一个决定
02:14
that officially is made
by the World Health Organization.
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由世界卫生组织正式发布。
02:18
You know, my colleagues and I
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你知道,我和我的同事
02:21
oh, it must have been
more than ten years ago,
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噢,那已经是十多年前的事了,
02:24
because of the lack of clarity
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因为缺乏明确性
02:27
on what a pandemic means
to one person versus another,
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大流行对一个人和
另一个人意味着什么,
02:31
we wrote a paper in the Journal
of Infectious Diseases
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我们在传染病杂志上
写了一篇论文
02:34
in which we talked about all the different
variations of interpretations.
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我们在文中讨论了
所有各种不同的解释方式。
02:40
Is it a widespread phenomenon?
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它是一种广泛传播的现象?
02:43
Is it the widespread
nature throughout the world
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它全世界广泛传播的特质?
02:46
that makes it officially a pandemic?
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使得它正式成为大流行?
02:49
Or is it widespread and accelerating?
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或是它广泛传播并增速发展?
02:53
Or is it widespread causing
serious disease?
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或是它的广泛传播
导致了严重疾病?
02:56
It means different things
to different people.
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它对不同的人
意味着不同的事情。
02:58
So rather than try and give a definition,
that's my definition versus another,
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因此,与其试图给出一个定义,
我的或别人的的定义。
03:04
we should stick with what
the WHO is saying.
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我们应该依照
世界卫生组织的说法。
03:08
And as Dr. Tedros said,
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正如谭德塞博士(Dr. Tedros)所说,
03:12
that we're seeing the light
at the end of the tunnel on that.
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我们看到了隧道尽头的光。
03:15
So, again, you might interpret that,
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所以,再一次,你可以因此解释
03:17
well, if that's the case, is it over?
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如果是这样的话,它结束了吗?
03:19
Well, again, what does "over" mean?
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嗯,再说一遍,
“结束”是什么意思?
03:21
There's a lot of semantics there, David.
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大卫,那里有很多语义。
03:23
The easiest way not to confuse people
is to say we still have a lot of cases,
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最简单又不迷惑人的说法是
我们还有很多病例,
03:28
we still have 400 deaths,
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我们仍有四百个死亡病例,
03:30
we only have 67 percent
of the population vaccinated,
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我们只有 67% 的人口接种了疫苗,
03:33
we've got to do better than that.
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我们必须做得比这更好。
03:35
Of those, only one half
have gotten a single boost.
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其中,只有一半打了一次增强剂。
03:40
And as a nation,
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作为一个国家,
03:42
we lag behind other developed countries
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我们落后于其他发达国家,
03:45
and even some low-
and middle-income countries
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甚至一些中低收入国家,
03:49
in the level of vaccinations
that we've been able to implement.
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在我们能够实施的疫苗接种水平上。
03:53
So if you want to look it that way,
we have a lot of work to do,
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所以,如果你从这来看,
我们有很多工作要做。
03:56
and that's exactly
what the President said.
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这正是总统所说的。
03:59
DB: So speaking of vaccines,
what's your advice?
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DB: 说到疫苗, 你有什么建议?
04:02
I know we have the bivalent available now.
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我知道我们现在有二价的。
04:06
What is your advice
on which vaccines to get
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您对接种哪种疫苗有何建议?
04:08
and when that's appropriate?
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以及什么时候合适?
04:11
AF: Well, first, you've got
to get your primary series.
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AF: 好的,首先,
你必须接种你的初级系列。
04:13
So, I mean, that's the one
where I said only 67 percent
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就是我上面说,只有 67%
04:18
of the country has gotten
their primary series,
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我国的人口接种了
他们的初级系列,
04:20
which for the most part,
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在大多数情况下
04:22
with some exceptions,
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除了一些例外,
04:23
is an mRNA vaccine,
either Moderna or Pfizer,
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是一种 mRNA 疫苗,莫德纳或辉瑞
04:27
given anywhere from three to four weeks
apart as the primary.
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作为的初级疫苗间隔 3 - 4周。
04:31
Then the issue is about giving
people booster shots.
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然后问题是给人们注射增强疫苗。
04:36
So right now,
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所以,现在
04:37
if you're asking a clear question,
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如果你问的是一个明确的问题
04:39
of today,
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今天的,
04:41
with the bivalent BA.4-5 boosters
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有关二价 BA.4-5 增强剂
04:45
or updated vaccines
is a better terminology to use,
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或更新疫苗
是一个更好使用的术语,
04:50
they are available now
throughout the country.
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它们现在在全国各地都可以获得。
04:53
We've ordered 171 million doses.
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我们已经订购了 1.71 亿剂。
04:57
Who should get it?
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谁应该使用它?
04:59
Anyone who is vaccinated
with the primary series
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任何接种过初级系列疫苗的人
05:05
and has not received a shot
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没有打过一针
05:09
longer than two months ago
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超过两个月,
05:12
should get it.
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应该接种它。
05:13
So if I got my last shot,
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因此,如果我最后一次接种,
05:16
let’s say in July -- August, September,
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假设是在 7 月、8 月、9 月,
05:20
two months later,
you should get the bivalent.
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两个月后, 你应该接种二价的。
05:23
If you were infected
three months or more ago,
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如果你在三个月前或更长时间被感染,
05:29
you should then get the updated vaccine.
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你应该接种更新的疫苗。
05:32
Let me give you an example
for clarity for the audience.
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让我给你举个例子
为了让听众清楚。
05:35
I was infected in the end
of June of this year,
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我今年 6 月底被感染了,
05:40
even though I had been vaccinated.
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即使我已经接种了疫苗。
05:42
Fortunately, because I was vaccinated,
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幸运的是,
因为我接种了疫苗,
05:46
I had a relatively mild illness.
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我的病相对比较轻。
05:48
At my age, had I not been vaccinated,
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在我这个年纪,
如果我没有接种疫苗,
05:52
the chances are I could have had
a real severe outcome
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我很有可能得到非常严重的后果
05:56
because elderly are more prone
to get severity of disease.
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因为老年人更容易患上严重的疾病。
06:02
So if you take the end of June,
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所以如果你拿六月底来算,
06:04
take the end of July, the end of August,
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七月底,八月底
06:08
the end of September.
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九月底
06:09
I plan to get my updated BA.4-5 bivalent
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我计划接种更新的 BA.4-5 二价
06:15
at the end of September,
the first week in October.
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九月底,十月的第一周。
06:19
DB: I think that’s a very useful advice,
and actually I will be doing the same.
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DB: 我认为这是一个非常有用的建议,
实际上我也会同样做。
06:26
How are you personally navigating
this stage in the pandemic?
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您的个人是如何渡过
大流行的这一阶段?
06:30
What precautions are you taking, if any?
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您采取了什么预防措施
如果有的话?
06:33
AF: Well, I certainly continue
to take precautions.
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AF: 当然,我当然会继续
采取预防措施。
06:36
And I think it's important
that you ask me personally that question,
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我认为你问我个人
这个问题很重要,
06:39
because people have different levels
of risk of severity of disease.
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因为人们患疾病严重程度的
风险水平不同。
06:44
I am a person who is relatively healthy,
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我是一个相对健康的人,
06:48
but I'm at an elderly age.
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但我在老年人年龄段。
06:50
I'm 81 years old.
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我 81 岁了,
06:51
I'm going to be 82 in December.
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12 月我就 82 岁了。
06:54
So I, statistically,
would have more of a risk.
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所以,从统计上来说,
会有更大的风险。
06:58
So the precautions I take,
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所以我采取的预防措施:
07:00
I stay up to date
on my vaccinations, number one.
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我在疫苗接种上
保持最新状态,这是第一点。
07:04
And when I go to a place
that's a congregate indoor setting
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当我去一个室内聚集的地方,
07:09
where there are a lot of people
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人多的地方,
07:10
and I don't know the status
of their infection,
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并且,我不知道他们感染的状况,
07:15
their vaccination or what have you,
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他们的疫苗接种或有什么病。
07:17
I would, for the most part, wear a mask.
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大部分情况下,我会戴口罩。
07:19
When I'm with people
who I know what their status is,
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当我知道他们状况的人,
在一起时,
07:22
people who are recently vaccinated
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最近接种了疫苗的人,
07:24
or people who come in and test
before they come in,
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在他们来之前进行了测试的人,
07:28
I could have a dinner in my home
or in the home of a friend
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我可以在我家
或者在朋友家里吃晚饭,
07:30
without any concern.
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没有任何顾虑。
07:33
But if I go to crowded places,
certainly on an airplane,
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但如果我去拥挤的地方,
比如是在飞机上,
07:37
even though it isn't required any more,
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即使不再规定需要,
07:40
if I go on a prolonged
or even a short airplane trip,
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如果我去长时间
甚至是短暂的飞机旅行,
07:44
again, because of my increased risk
as an elderly person,
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再次,因为作为老年人,
我的风险增加,
07:49
I wear a mask on the plane.
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我在飞机上戴口罩。
07:52
DB: So switching gears a little bit,
or taking a step back,
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DB:稍微换一下档,
或者停下来想一下,
07:56
are consecutive pandemics
kind of our new reality?
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连续大流行有点是我们的新现实吗?
08:00
We obviously had the monkeypox outbreak.
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我们显然爆发了猴痘。
08:04
And if that is the case,
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如果是这样的话,
08:05
how do we cope with consecutive pandemics?
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我们要如何应对连续的大流行呢?
08:09
AF: Well, you know, we have had,
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AF:嗯,你知道,我们曾经有,
08:12
probably without the general public
noticing it much,
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可能公众没有注意到太多,
08:17
we have had, in the history
of our civilization,
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在我们的文明史上,
08:22
outbreaks of emerging infections,
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新兴感染的爆发,
08:25
some of which turn into pandemics.
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其中一些演变成大流行。
08:29
We've had them before recorded history.
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我们有史记录之前就有过它们。
08:32
We've had them in the lifetime
of some of us, you and I.
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我们有的在
有生之年经历了,你和我。
08:37
We're going through one right now.
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我们现在正在经历着一次。
08:40
So given the fact that most
of the outbreaks of new infections
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鉴于大多数新感染的爆发
08:45
come from the animal-human interface,
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来自动物与人的接触面,
08:50
which is sometimes
intruded upon, as it were,
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它有时被侵扰,
08:55
where people, either by climate change
or by intruding on forests,
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当人类因气候变化,或者侵入了森林,
09:03
“uninhabited by human”
places in the world,
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世界上的“无人区”,
09:07
you’re going to get jumping of species.
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你会得到物种的跨跃。
09:09
Or in markets where you put
animals from the wild
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或者在市场上,
你把野生动物放在那里
09:13
in contact with humans,
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与人类接触,
09:14
which is exactly what happened
with SARS-CoV-1
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这正是 SARS-CoV-1 发生的情况,
09:18
and highly likely happened
with SARS-CoV-2.
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并且极有可能
发生在 SARS-CoV-2 。
09:22
We will continue to get outbreaks.
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我们将持续爆发疫情。
09:24
Pandemic flu generally comes
from a situation
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大流行性流感
通常来自一种情况
09:29
where you have the animal species
that harbor influenza,
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那里有携带流感的动物,
09:33
pigs, fowl,
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猪、家禽,
09:36
birds and humans together
in that environment.
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鸟类和人类一起生活
在这样的环境中。
09:39
That's how you get the bird flu
that tend to challenge us a fair amount
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这就是你得禽流感的原因,
往往会给我们带来相当大的挑战
09:44
or the swine flu.
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或者猪流感。
09:47
So the short answer
to your question, David,
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对你问题的简短回答, 大卫,
09:49
is that we will continue to get
outbreaks of new infections.
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我们将继续爆发新的感染吗?
09:54
The critical issue is how do you prevent
them from becoming pandemics?
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关键问题是如何防止它们
成为大流行?
10:01
And that's what's called
pandemic preparedness,
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而这就称为大流行防备。
10:04
which is a combination
of scientific preparedness,
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这是科学准备的组合,
10:09
like we did with the rapid development
of vaccines for COVID-19,
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就像我们快速生产
新冠肺炎疫苗,
10:15
which was a highly successful
scientific endeavor,
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这是一项非常成功的科学努力,
10:20
matched with a public health response,
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与公共卫生反应相匹配,
10:24
which we didn't do as well,
in the public health response,
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我们在公共卫生反应中
相对来说没有做好,
10:27
because we had spread of infection
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因为我们有感染传播,
10:31
in a way that we could have done
better in controlling it.
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我们本可以更好地控制它。
10:35
DB: So speaking of that,
this is not your first epidemic,
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DB:说到这,这不是你的第一次流行病,
10:39
but you've made historic contributions
to the AIDS epidemic
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但是你对艾滋病的流行做出了
历史意义的贡献,
10:44
and now COVID-19.
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现在是新冠肺炎。
10:46
But is there anything you wish
you had done differently in those cases?
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但你是否希望自己有任何事情
做得有所不同吗?
10:51
AF: Well, there always is.
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AF:嗯,总是有。
10:53
I mean, it's a question
of when you're involved --
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我是说,这是一个
你何时参与的问题——
10:55
Nobody is perfect, certainly not I
or any of my colleagues.
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没有人是完美的,
无论是我或我的任何同事。
11:00
But when you're dealing with an emerging,
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但当你面对一个刚出现的
11:04
moving, dynamic target,
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变化 ,动态目标,
11:07
which by definition is what a pandemic is,
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按照定义,这就是大流行,
11:10
particularly if it's with a pathogen
that you've never had experience with,
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特别如果它是一种
你从未接触过的病原体,
11:16
like HIV in the very early 1980s,
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就像 1980 年代初的 HIV 那样,
11:21
or the COVID-19 pandemic
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或新冠肺炎大流行,
11:24
in the first months of 2020,
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在 2020 年的头几个月,
11:28
you could always say,
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你总可以说,
11:29
if we knew then what we know now,
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如果我们当时
知道我们现在知道的,
11:32
and there was a lot of things
that we didn't know,
200
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那时我们有很多不知道的事,
11:35
we certainly would have done
things differently.
201
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3120
我们肯定会做不同的事情。
11:39
And that's why you have to be
humble and modest
202
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3160
这就是为什么
你必须谦逊和谦虚
11:42
to realize if you are going
to be following the science,
203
702620
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意识到如果你要遵循科学,
11:47
the science which gives you
data and information and evidence
204
707940
5560
科学为你提供数据、信息和证据
11:53
is going to change,
205
713500
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将会改变,
11:55
particularly in the early phases
of the outbreak.
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特别是在疫情暴发的早期阶段。
11:59
Did we know how easily it was spread
from human to human?
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我们知道它在人与人之间传播有多容易吗?
12:03
No.
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不。
12:04
Did we know that it was aerosol spread?
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724660
2720
我们知道这是气溶胶传播吗?
12:07
No.
210
727380
1200
不。
12:08
We thought in the beginning
it was like influenza,
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我们一开始以为这就像流感,
12:11
mostly droplets from a sick person.
212
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主要是病人的飞沫。
12:13
Did we know that 50 to 60 percent
of the transmissions
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我们知道 50% 到 60% 的传播
12:18
were [from] someone who had
no symptoms at all,
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来自完全没有症状的人吗?
12:22
which clearly impacts
how you approach an outbreak?
215
742660
4760
这明显影响了你如何应对疫情。
12:27
Did we realize that instead of the typical
outbreak, where it goes up,
216
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4360
我们有没有意识到,
它与典型的疫情不同,
12:31
it comes down and then
you're done with it,
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2360
它下来后你就完成了,
12:34
we had no concept that you'd be
seeing different waves
218
754260
3720
我们没有想到你会看到不同的浪潮
12:38
and different variants that came along.
219
758020
2160
以及随之而来的不同变种。
12:40
So the answer to your question,
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2000
所以你问题的答案是
12:42
if we knew all of that from the beginning,
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762620
3120
如果我们从一开始就知道这一切,
12:45
we certainly would have done
things differently.
222
765780
2440
我们肯定会做不同的事情。
12:48
But unfortunately we didn't.
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1840
但不幸的是,我们没有。
12:50
And you try to be flexible enough
and humble enough
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4480
你努力做到足够灵活和谦逊
12:54
to change and modify
how you approach things
225
774900
3600
改变和修正你如何处理事情,
12:58
based on the recent data.
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778500
2160
基于最新的数据。
13:00
That’s not flip-flopping.
227
780700
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这不是改变观点,
13:03
That is truly following the evidence
and following the data.
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783220
4960
这是真正的遵循证据和数据。
13:08
DB: Right, that's just how science works,
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788220
2480
DB:是的,这就是科学的运作方式,
13:10
it's constantly updating
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790700
1880
它不断更新,
13:12
and especially in a real-time situation
like this pandemic.
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792620
5040
尤其是在这次大流行
这样的实时情况下。
13:17
But are there any, I don't know,
specific regrets you have,
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797700
3320
但我不知道你有没有什么特别的遗憾,
13:21
something you would
take back if you could?
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3040
如果可以,你会收回的东西?
13:24
AF: Well, it depends.
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1160
AF:嗯, 这得看情况。
13:26
Yeah, I mean, obviously in the beginning
when we were under the impression,
235
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4320
是的,我的意思是,很明显,
一开始我们在印象中,
13:30
or didn't fully realize
that there was aerosol spread,
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810460
5240
或者没有充分意识到有气溶胶传播,
13:35
we were under the impression,
which was true,
237
815740
2520
我们就有这样的印象,这是真的,
13:38
because we were told that,
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1720
因为我们被告知,
13:40
that there weren’t enough masks
for the health care providers.
239
820060
3360
没有足够的口罩供医护人员使用。
13:43
And if we started everybody
hoarding masks,
240
823420
3320
如果我们开始大家囤积口罩,
13:46
there wouldn't be masks available
to the health care providers.
241
826780
4280
不会有口罩可提供给医疗工作者。
13:51
We didn't realize that out
of the health care setting,
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3320
我们没有意识到在医疗环境中
13:54
like the hospital setting,
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834460
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比如医院环境,
13:56
that masks were effective in preventing
acquisition and transmission.
244
836340
4960
口罩能有效防止感染和传播。
14:01
We didn't know that.
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841340
1200
我们当时不知道。
14:02
We know it now for sure,
but we didn't know it then.
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842580
3360
我们现在肯定知道,
但当时我们不知道。
14:05
We didn't know that the silent spread
from people who were without symptoms.
247
845980
6320
我们不知道无声的传播
来自没有症状的人
14:12
And that meant we didn't know that,
while we were looking for sick people,
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852340
5360
这意味着我们在寻找病人时不知道,
14:17
there were many, many, many more people
without symptoms that were in society
249
857740
4320
有很多、很多、很多
没有症状的人在社区中
14:22
spreading the infection
250
862060
2640
正传播着感染
14:24
in a way that was not detectable,
below the radar screen.
251
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3680
以一种无法检测的方式
在关注范围以下。
14:28
Had we known that,
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868420
1240
如果我们知道,
14:29
I absolutely would have said
right from the beginning,
253
869700
2520
我绝对会从一开始就说,
14:32
everybody wear a mask all the time
in an indoor setting.
254
872260
3360
在室内环境中,
每个人都要戴口罩。
14:36
But we didn't say that then.
255
876100
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但我们当时没有这么说。
14:37
It was only when it became obvious.
256
877580
2280
只有当它变得明显时。
14:39
So if we had known that early on,
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所以如果我们早就知道了,
14:42
we would have told people to wear a mask.
258
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2000
我们会告诉人们戴口罩。
14:44
However, I must say, David,
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然而,我必须说,大卫,
14:46
given the reluctance
of people to wear masks,
260
886900
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鉴于人们不愿戴口罩,
14:50
even now that we know all that stuff,
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即使现在我们知道了所有这些,
14:53
I'm wondering how well
that would have been received
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893780
4400
我仍在琢磨接受程度会怎么样,
14:58
if at a time when there were ten or so
documented infections,
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898180
5240
如果有十个左右的感染记录。
15:03
if you told the country that everybody
should wear a mask in an indoor setting,
264
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4840
如果你告诉国家
每个人在室内都应该戴口罩,
15:08
not so sure that would have
been broadly accepted.
265
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3560
不太确定这会被广泛接受。
15:12
DB: Yeah. And this seems
to be something that,
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2600
DB:是的, 这似乎是这样的。
15:15
the United States anyway,
has been through before,
267
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2600
反正美国也经历过
15:17
with the Spanish flu
268
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1440
西班牙流感,
15:19
and masking and then anti-mask protests.
269
919260
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戴口罩和反口罩的抗议。
15:22
And it seems to be in our, let's say,
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它似乎在我们的,比方说,
15:25
societal immune response
to these pandemics.
271
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社会对这些流行病的免疫反应。
15:28
Flipping it a little bit,
272
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1800
稍微翻转一下,
15:30
how do we make sure we're not caught
so, sort of, unprepared next time?
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5560
我们如何确保下次
不会被抓得措手不及?
15:36
AF: Well, you know,
it's interesting, David,
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AF:你知道,这很有趣,大卫,
15:38
what you mean by unprepared,
275
938980
1520
你所说的毫无准备,
15:40
because the Johns Hopkins
School of Public Health
276
940540
3880
因为约翰·霍普金斯公共卫生学院
15:44
evaluated different countries'
preparedness for a pandemic.
277
944460
4360
评估了不同国家应对大流行的准备情况。
15:49
And guess who was evaluated
to be first in the world?
278
949260
3840
猜猜谁被评为世界第一?
15:53
The United States of America.
279
953100
2040
美利坚合众国。
15:55
Guess who has the most
deaths per population?
280
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4320
猜猜谁的死亡人数最多?
15:59
The United States of America.
281
959500
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美利坚合众国。
16:02
So, you know, there's preparedness,
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2480
所以,你知道,这是准备,
16:04
and there's response,
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而那是响应,
16:05
there's execution
of your preparedness plans
284
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4240
那是防备计划的执行力
16:10
that we did not do so well
285
970260
1800
我们做得不够好。
16:12
for any of a number
of complicated reasons,
286
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3280
由于许多复杂原因,
16:15
one of which was the fact,
287
975420
2600
其中之一是事实,
16:18
and is, that this outbreak occurred
288
978020
4200
就是,这次疫情发生在
16:22
at a time of really profound
and deep divisiveness in our own country.
289
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5360
我们自己国家非常严重分歧的时刻。
16:28
That where we had something
we hadn't seen before,
290
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4520
在我们以前没见过的地方,
16:32
where political ideology played a role
in whether you did or did not accept
291
992740
5640
那政治意识形态影响了,
你接受或不接受
16:38
the recommended public health
countermeasures,
292
998420
3520
公共卫生所推荐的对策
16:41
be it wearing a mask,
293
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2560
无论是戴口罩,
16:44
indoor settings, quarantining,
taking a vaccine, getting a boost.
294
1004580
6160
在室内环境,
隔离,接种疫苗,接种增强剂
16:50
If you look at the country
295
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2720
如果你看这个国家
16:53
and look at the demography of the country
with regard to ideology,
296
1013540
5560
看看这个国家
在意识形态相关的人口结构,
16:59
there should never be that red states
vaccinate much less than blue states.
297
1019100
6480
疫苗接种量永远不应该
红州比蓝色州少很多。
17:05
There's no reason for that at all
because public health risks
298
1025620
4640
这根本没有理由
因为公共卫生风险,
17:10
and public health implementation
should be uniform throughout.
299
1030300
4920
公共卫生实施应到处一样。
17:15
And we didn't see that.
300
1035260
2080
我们没有看到。
17:17
DB: Yeah, let's talk about that
a little bit more
301
1037820
2320
DB:是的,让我们再谈一谈,
17:20
because obviously, you've had to cope
with an incredibly polarized response
302
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4400
因为很明显,
您不得不应对令人难以置信的两极化反应。
17:24
to your work
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1800
您的工作,
17:26
in which not just ordinary citizens,
304
1046380
3320
不仅是普通公民,
17:29
but even politicians have called
for your resignation
305
1049700
3560
但就连政客都要求您辞职,
17:33
and various other things.
306
1053300
2040
以及其他各种事情。
17:35
How do you deal with that,
how do you keep your cool?
307
1055380
2520
您是怎么处理的,
您是怎么保持冷静的?
17:37
You're quite cool about this.
308
1057940
1400
您对此很冷静。
17:39
AF: Well, calling for your
resignation is mild
309
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2160
AF:嗯,要求你辞职是温和的,
17:41
compared to having somebody arrested
310
1061540
2200
与逮捕某人相比
17:43
who was trying to kill you.
311
1063780
1680
他想杀了你。
17:45
So, I mean,
312
1065780
1200
所以,我的意思是
17:46
there's a big spectrum of pushing back
against public health people.
313
1066980
4680
有很多人反对公共卫生人员。
17:51
And that's one of the really
unfortunate things.
314
1071700
3040
这是一件非常不幸的事情。
17:54
I mean, I keep my cool
because that's just the nature
315
1074780
4720
我是说,我保持冷静,
因为这是本性,
17:59
of the kind of person that I am.
316
1079540
1560
我是那种人。
18:01
When you're dealing with a very,
very difficult situation,
317
1081100
3120
当你面对非常非常困难的局面时,
18:04
you've got to keep your cool.
318
1084260
1400
你必须保持冷静
18:05
I mean, I learned that in my
early training in medicine.
319
1085660
2720
在早期医学培训中
我就学会了这一点。
18:08
When you're in the middle of emergency,
somebody is dying in front of you,
320
1088420
3640
当你处于紧急状态时,
有人在你面前将要死去
18:12
you've got to keep your cool all the time.
321
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3240
你必须一直保持冷静。
18:15
And that's something that's just part
of my inherent training
322
1095860
3120
这只是我固有训练的一部分
18:18
as a physician and as a person.
323
1098980
2320
作为一名医生和一个人。
18:21
But what we faced was well beyond that.
324
1101340
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但我们面临的远不止这些。
18:24
I mean, public health officials,
not only myself, I'm a very visible one,
325
1104340
5440
我的意思是,公共卫生官员,
不仅是我自己,我是一个非常显眼的人
18:29
but many of my colleagues
are being threatened and hassled
326
1109820
5200
但我的许多同事都受到威胁和烦扰,
18:35
and harassed,
327
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1640
被骚扰,
18:36
themselves and their families,
328
1116740
2000
他们自己和他们的家人、
18:38
the way my family is being harassed,
329
1118780
3120
我的家人被骚扰的方式,
18:41
merely because of saying things
330
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2400
仅仅因为说了些什么
18:44
that are purely public health,
common sense,
331
1124340
4400
纯粹的公共卫生常识,
18:48
tried and true principles
of how to keep people safe.
332
1128780
4560
久经考验的
如何保护人们安全的真实原则。
18:54
That is really extraordinary
that that's going on in our country.
333
1134020
4160
在我们国家发生的事情真的很不寻常。
18:58
DB: Yeah.
334
1138740
1440
DB:是啊。
19:00
I'm also going to ascribe it
to the Brooklyn upbringing.
335
1140220
2640
我还要把这归于布鲁克林的培养。
19:02
That gave you some cool, too.
336
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2760
这也让你很酷。
19:05
(Laughter)
337
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1240
(笑声)
19:07
But a quick follow up,
338
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1360
但一个快速追踪
19:08
how do you, like,
339
1148940
1400
您是怎么,比如
19:10
with all that going on,
with those horrifying threats,
340
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3680
所有这些都在发生,
还有那些可怕的威胁,
19:14
how do you unwind from all this?
341
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您是怎么从这一切中解脱出来的呢?
19:16
How do you, you know, keep it together
342
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3280
您是怎么做到挺住的
19:19
and give yourself some space to breathe?
343
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2440
给自己一些喘息的空间?
19:22
AF: Well, I have an extraordinarily
supportive family,
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AF:我有一个非常支持我的家庭,
19:26
my wife who's with me,
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2160
我妻子和我在一起,
19:28
my children are grown and live
in different parts of the country.
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我长大的孩子,她们生活在国家的不同地方,
19:31
But they are very supportive
of me with texts and calls
347
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4320
但她们非常支持我,
通过发短信和打电话,
19:36
and knowing what I'm going through.
348
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1920
知道我正在经历什么。
19:38
So I have three daughters,
which they, you know,
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我有三个女儿,你知道的,
19:41
they try to take care of their daddy,
so it really helps.
350
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3560
她们尽力照顾他们的爸爸,
所以这真的很有帮助。
19:45
But my wife is extremely supportive,
and we do things together.
351
1185220
3720
而我妻子非常支持我,
我们一起做事。
19:48
I mean, I work a preposterous
amount of hours a day,
352
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4600
我的意思是,
我每天工作的时间多得离谱,
19:53
but every day I try to get
some exercise in
353
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2680
但每天我都努力做些运动,
19:56
and it's usually a few mile
walk with my wife,
354
1196300
4400
通常和我妻子走几英里,
20:00
whether that's on the weekends
very early in the morning,
355
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3200
无论是在周末的清晨,
20:03
or during the week late at night
when I come home.
356
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3080
或者在工作日的深夜
我回家时。
20:07
We try to get some form of exercise in
to diffuse the tension,
357
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6560
我们试图通过一些锻炼
来缓解压力,
20:13
hopefully every day.
358
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1200
希望每天都如此,
20:14
And we're pretty successful at that.
359
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2040
我们在这方面非常成功。
20:17
AF: Well, good for you.
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1400
DB:嗯,这对您很有好处!
20:19
So you're retiring after a very long
and distinguished career.
361
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4640
所以,您在经历了
漫长而杰出的职业生涯之后,即将退休。
20:23
Congratulations.
362
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1560
恭喜!
20:25
You will have successors.
363
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1680
你会有接班人。
20:27
What lessons would you want to offer
your successors based on your tenure?
364
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4960
您希望为您的继任者提供哪些经验教训?
基于您的任职
20:32
AF: First of all, I’m not retiring
in the classic sense.
365
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3360
AF:首先,我不是传统意义上的退休。
20:35
As my wife, says, David,
366
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正如我妻子所说,大卫,
20:37
I’m “rewiring,” not retiring,
367
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3920
我正在“重新布线”,而不是退休,
20:41
because I do intend to be very active.
368
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2200
因为我确实打算非常活跃。
20:43
And that was one of the reasons
why I stepped down
369
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3360
这也是我走下来的原因之一
20:47
at this point in time.
370
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2320
在这个时间点。
20:49
Because while I still have the enthusiasm,
371
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2680
因为当我还有热情,
20:52
the energy and thank goodness,
the good health
372
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2840
精力充沛,谢天谢地,身体健康,
20:55
to be able to do something else
for the next few years,
373
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2600
能够在接下来的几年里
做一些其他的事情,
20:57
I want to use the benefit
of my experience of being at the NIH
374
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5880
我想利用我在 NIH 的经验
21:03
for almost 60 years,
375
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1280
有将近 60 年的时间
21:04
for being the director
of the Institute for 38 years,
376
1264980
3440
担任研究所所长 38 年,
21:08
and for having the privilege
377
1268420
2040
并有幸
21:10
of advising seven presidents
of the United States
378
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2960
为七位美国总统提供提供咨询
21:13
on public health issues,
379
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2760
关于公共卫生问题,
21:16
to use that experience
to hopefully inspire by writing,
380
1276260
4280
希望利用这段经历激发写作的灵感,
21:20
reading, traveling, lecturing,
381
1280580
2600
阅读、旅行、演讲,
21:23
inspiring the younger generation
of scientists and would-be scientists
382
1283220
5040
激励年轻一代科学家和未来科学家
21:28
to at least consider a career
in public service,
383
1288300
3400
至少考虑从事公共服务,
21:31
particularly in the arena
of public health,
384
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2360
特别是在公共卫生领域,
21:34
and science and medicine.
385
1294140
1520
以及科学和医学。
21:35
Having said that,
386
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1560
话说回来,
21:37
my advice to the person
who will ultimately replace me
387
1297300
6080
我对那最终接替我的人的建议
21:43
would be to focus on the science
388
1303420
2960
将是专注于科学,
21:46
and be consistent with the science
389
1306420
2440
并与科学保持一致
21:48
and do not get distracted
by a lot of the peripheral things,
390
1308860
5800
并且被很多周围事物分心,
21:54
the disinformation, the misinformation,
391
1314700
3280
虚假信息,错误信息,
21:58
the attacks on medicine
and science and public health.
392
1318020
4680
对医学、科学和公共卫生的攻击。
22:02
Focus like a laser beam
on what your job is
393
1322740
3760
像激光束一样专注于你的工作上,
22:06
and don't get distracted by all
the other noise that's out there
394
1326540
4200
不要被外面其他的噪音所分心,
22:10
because there is a lot more noise now
395
1330780
3400
因为现在有更多的噪音
22:14
than there was a few decades ago.
396
1334180
2440
与几十年前相比。
22:16
And by noise, I mean misinformation
and disinformation about science.
397
1336660
4960
我所说的噪音是指
对于科学的错误信息和虚假信息。
22:22
DB: For sure.
398
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1160
DB:当然。
22:23
I've definitely noticed that
as the science curator.
399
1343900
3040
作为科学馆长,
我确切地注意到了这一点
22:26
But pivoting a bit, let's talk about hope.
400
1346940
3600
但是稍转一下,让我们谈谈希望。
22:30
What gives you hope about the future?
401
1350580
3160
是什么让您对未来充满希望?
22:33
Are there treatments or other things
coming down the pipeline
402
1353780
4240
是否有治疗或其他办法陆续到来
22:38
that you're excited about?
403
1358020
1400
让您感到兴奋?
22:40
AF: Well, science is an absolutely
phenomenal discipline.
404
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5880
AF:嗯,科学是一门绝对了不起的学科,
22:47
It's discovery.
405
1367460
1680
它是去发现。
22:49
It's ...
406
1369140
1240
它是……
22:51
brand new knowledge.
407
1371900
1680
全新的知识,
22:54
Pushing back the frontiers of knowledge
408
1374700
2200
推动知识的前沿,
22:56
that we would not have imagined
we would be in.
409
1376900
3360
我们不会想象我们会在会在其中。
23:00
If you look at medicine and science,
410
1380300
2280
如果你看看医学和科学,
23:02
how it's changed in a very,
very positive way
411
1382620
3560
它是如何以非常、
非常积极的方式改变的。
23:06
from the time I stepped
into medical school in 1962
412
1386220
5960
从我踏入医学院在 1962 年
23:12
to the time now of the things
that are available to me
413
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4080
到现在为止,我可用的东西,
23:16
as a physician and as a scientist.
414
1396300
2520
作为一名医生和科学家。
23:18
I have great hope
415
1398820
1680
我有很大的希望,
23:20
that if we continue the investments
in basic and applied science,
416
1400540
6160
如果我们继续投资于基础和应用科学,
23:26
that we will be able to accomplish things
417
1406740
2520
我们将能够完成事情。
23:29
in the arena of health, individual health,
418
1409300
4120
在健康领域,个人健康,
23:33
and public health and global health
419
1413420
2480
公共卫生和全球卫生。
23:35
that were really unimaginable
just decades ago.
420
1415900
3280
就在几十年前,这真的是难以想象的。
23:39
So I have a great deal of optimism
421
1419180
4720
所以我非常乐观
23:43
about what the future holds
for science and medicine.
422
1423940
4280
对于科学和医学的未来。
23:48
And that's the reason why
one of the things I'm going to try and do
423
1428780
5440
这就是为什么我要尝试做的一件事,
23:54
in my rewired post-government life
424
1434220
4560
在我重新规划的后政府生活中
23:58
is to encourage young individuals
to consider a career in medicine,
425
1438780
5480
鼓励年轻人考虑从事医学职业,
24:04
science and public health,
426
1444300
2080
科学和公共卫生,
24:06
because the opportunities
are really limitless.
427
1446420
4120
因为机会真的是无限的。
24:10
We are at a stage now the likes of which
people who antidated us
428
1450940
5880
我们现在正处于这样一个阶段,
那些以前的人
24:16
never would have imagined
429
1456860
1720
从未想象得到
24:18
the opportunities in science that we have.
430
1458620
2600
我们拥有的科学机会。
24:21
So I'm very optimistic
about where we're going.
431
1461260
2880
所以我对我们的发展方向非常乐观。
24:24
DB: Me, too.
432
1464540
1600
DB:我也是。
24:26
But you mentioned earlier how
climate change is affecting pandemics.
433
1466540
3680
但您之前提到气候变化
如何影响大流行,
24:30
What worries you about the future
that we're facing?
434
1470260
4560
您对我们所面临的未来感到担忧的是什么?
24:35
AF: Well, just some of the things
that you mentioned.
435
1475900
3880
嗯,只是你提到的一些事情,
24:40
We do have a growing element
of anti-science in society.
436
1480380
6920
我们的社会中
确实有越来越多的反科学因素。
24:47
Disturbingly,
437
1487900
2400
令人不安的是,
24:50
growing in the United States.
438
1490340
1840
在美国增长。
24:52
And when I talk to my colleagues
internationally,
439
1492780
3640
当我和国际上的同事交谈时,
24:56
depending upon the country
that they live in
440
1496460
4360
取决于他们居住的国家
25:00
to a greater or lesser degree,
441
1500820
2080
或多或少地,
25:02
there's some element of that.
442
1502940
1760
这其中有一些因素。
25:05
The thing that bothers me
443
1505500
3000
困扰我的事情
25:08
is a denial of science
and what science is showing us.
444
1508500
4280
是对科学以及
科学向我们展示的东西的否定。
25:13
A denial of the issues of climate
and the environment,
445
1513260
6000
否认气候和环境问题,
25:19
a denial of scientific principles
446
1519300
2560
否认科学原则,
25:21
and conspiracy theories about things
that push people away.
447
1521900
5560
以及把人推开的阴谋论。
25:27
I mean, some of them are laughable,
448
1527500
2960
我的意思是,有些很可笑,
25:30
but you would be astounded, David,
449
1530500
2360
但你会感到惊讶,大卫,
25:32
at the number of people who believe it.
450
1532900
2440
相信它的人数之多。
25:35
That the vaccines were made
by Bill Gates and I
451
1535380
3120
疫苗是由比尔·盖茨和我制造的,
25:38
and we put a chip in it
452
1538540
1760
我们在里面放了一个芯片,
25:40
so that we could follow people around
453
1540300
2640
这样我们就能到处跟踪人,
25:42
and know what they're doing
and get into their head.
454
1542940
3160
知道他们在做什么并进入他们的头脑。
25:46
The idea that there's a conspiracy,
455
1546140
3040
有个构想、有阴谋的想法,
25:49
that we’re making billions
of dollars on vaccines,
456
1549180
4720
我们在疫苗上赚了数十亿美元,
25:53
and that's why people
are promoting vaccines,
457
1553940
5160
这就是人们推广疫苗的原因,
25:59
so that people like me
and others who are public figures ...
458
1559140
4040
所以像我这样的人和其他公众人物……
26:03
I mean, based on no data.
459
1563540
1680
我的意思是,没有数据基础。
26:05
But once it gets into the social media,
460
1565260
3160
但一旦它进入社交媒体,
26:08
it explodes and conspiracy
theories explode.
461
1568460
3360
它炸开了,阴谋论炸开了,
26:11
Even though all of the evidence
proves it wrong,
462
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3480
尽管所有证据都证明这是错误的,
26:15
proving something wrong today
doesn't seem to matter much.
463
1575380
4040
证明一些错误,今天似乎无关紧要。
26:20
That's really strange and weird,
isn't it, David?
464
1580780
2880
这真的很奇怪,很怪诞,
不是吗,大卫?
26:23
DB: Yeah, yeah.
465
1583700
1280
DB:是的,是的。
26:25
Well, it's, I think, an old phenomenon.
466
1585020
3840
嗯,我认为这是一个古老的现象。
26:29
There's a famous saying
that I'm going to mangle about
467
1589700
2800
有一句名言我要说,
26:32
by the time the truth
gets out of the barn,
468
1592540
2160
当真相传出谷仓时,
26:34
the lie is halfway around the world.
469
1594740
2160
这个谎言绕了半个地球。
26:37
And that's definitely
the world we're living in.
470
1597780
3640
这绝对是我们现在生活的世界。
26:41
I do know you have to go and, you know,
471
1601460
3080
我知道您要走了,
26:44
finish out your tenure
472
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2120
结束您的任期,
26:46
and then get ready for your rewiring,
which I'm excited about.
473
1606700
2920
然后准备好重新布线,
这让我很兴奋。
26:49
I'm excited to see what's next.
474
1609660
1720
我很高兴看到接下来会发生什么。
26:51
But do you have a last bit
of advice for the public?
475
1611700
4680
但您对公众有最后一点建议吗?
26:56
One thing you hope everyone takes away
from your time as director
476
1616700
5280
您希望每个人都能从
您院长任期带走的一样东西
27:02
and your time in public health?
477
1622020
1760
以及您在公共卫生领域的时间?
27:04
AF: Yeah, David, there are so many things,
478
1624420
2600
AF:是的,大卫,有太多了,
27:07
but I think one thing that stands out,
479
1627060
1840
但我认为有一点很突出,
27:08
particularly in the climate
and the environment
480
1628900
2240
特别是在气候和环境方面,
27:11
that we're in right now,
481
1631180
1680
我们正处在的
27:12
is that people need to get involved
in a proactive way
482
1632900
5560
人们需要以积极主动的方式参与,
27:18
in spreading the truth
about what scientific principles are
483
1638500
5000
传播关于什么是真正科学原则,
27:23
and what they mean
484
1643540
1160
以及它们的含义,
27:24
and how they can be
of great benefit to society
485
1644740
4320
以及它们如何对社会产生巨大的益处,
27:29
and to try and make our population
more science literate than it is right now
486
1649100
6680
并努力让我们的人口
比现在更懂科学,
27:35
by talking about things.
487
1655820
2280
通过讨论事情。
27:38
The truth, you know, the easiest way
488
1658140
2600
事实,你知道,最简单的方法
27:40
to counter misinformation
and disinformation
489
1660740
3520
去打击错误信息和虚假信息,
27:44
is to be enthusiastic
about spreading correct information.
490
1664300
4240
就是要热心传播正确的信息。
27:48
A little bit about the metaphor
that you said about the truth and lies.
491
1668540
4680
关于你所说的关于真相和谎言的比喻
27:53
Be spreaders of facts and truth.
492
1673860
3640
成为事实和真理的传播者。
27:57
Everybody's got to be
a contributor to that.
493
1677980
2240
每个人都必须为此做出贡献。
28:00
And that's one of the things
I think we can do better.
494
1680260
2560
这就是其中一件我认为
我们可以做得更好的事。
28:03
DB: Yeah, I would agree.
495
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1160
DB:是的,我同意。
28:04
And we're definitely trying here at TED.
496
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1920
我们正在 TED 这里尝试这样做。
28:06
Well, Dr. Fauci, I know our members
are incredibly thankful,
497
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3720
福奇博士我知道我们的成员非常感激,
28:10
I personally am incredibly thankful.
498
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1720
我个人非常感激。
28:11
So thank you so much for your work
and for joining us today.
499
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3600
非常感谢您所做的工作和今天加入我们,
28:16
AF: My pleasure, David,
thank you so much for having me.
500
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2680
AF:这是我的荣幸,
大卫,非常感谢你邀请我。
28:18
[Want to join conversations
like this live?]
501
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2680
【想要参加像这样直播对话吗?】
28:21
[Become a TED Member!]
502
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1680
【成为 TED 会员!】
28:23
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503
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1560
[在 ted.com/membership 注册]
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