The Power of Unconventional Thinking | David McWilliams | TED

翻译人员: Yuan Chen 校对人员: Laixi Kang

I was supposed to go in the very first session.

我本来是该在第一场会议演讲的。

And I had a plan.

我都已经计划好了，

And that plan was I'd do TED, I'd see Vancouver,

来参加 TED 大会，在温哥华观光，

I'd chill out, I'd get this thing done,

轻轻松松，把这个演讲说完，

then I’d relax.

然后我就可以休息了。

I'd listen to other people's speeches, rob their best ideas,

我会聆听其他人的演讲， 偷走他们最棒的观点，

bring them home and sound incredibly, incredibly brainy.

把它们带回家， 然后我听上去就会非常聪明。

And then your man, Chris, rings me last weekend.

然后 TED 这边这位克里斯， 上周末给我打了个电话，

He says, "You know that last thing, the first thing?

他说：“你知道，压轴的才是最好的吗？

Why don't you go last?"

要不你最后一个上台？”

I'm like, "Oh, man."

我说：“哦，天呐。”

That brought to mind the words of the great American philosopher,

这让我想起了一位伟大的美国哲学家

Mike Tyson.

迈克·泰森。

(Laughter)

（笑声）

Who said of plans, "Everybody has a plan until they get a punch in the face."

说起计划，他说： “每个人都是有计划的，

直到他脸上吃一记拳头。”

(Laughter)

（笑声）

And of course, you know, doing the last gig at TED,

当然，在 TED 压轴登台演讲，

it's not about the pressure, that's not the problem.

压力并不是问题问题所在。

The pressure isn't the problem.

问题在于保持清醒。

The problem is the sobriety.

(Laughter)

（笑声）

But the speeches have been amazing, right?

但之前的演讲都是很精彩的，对吧？

And if I could kind of encapsulate them all,

如果让我来概括， 以我看来，它们讲的是关于

it's really been about, as far as I can see,

the pace of change and what that's doing to us demographically, politically,

变化的速度，以及其在人口、政治、

socially, economically.

社会、经济上对我们的影响。

Extraordinary stuff.

非常精彩的内容。

And I'd now like to quote from

我现在想引用来自

a great liberal, democrat,

一个伟大的自由主义者、民主主义者、

a friend of TED,

一位 TED 的朋友

Vladimir Lenin.

弗拉基米尔·列宁的一句话。

(Laughter)

（笑声）

Who said of change and crises

关于变化和危机，他说，

that there are decades when nothing happens

有时候几十年里什么都不会发生，

and there are weeks when decades happen.

有时候几周内会发生翻天覆地的变化。

And we’re living through those weeks, you get that feeling,

你能感受到，我们正生活在那几周里。

and it’s really difficult to know where to start to think about these ...

而从哪里开始思考是一个难题。

How do you analyze this stuff?

应该如何分析这些事？

Now, if I was an American economist

如果我是一个美国的经济学家，

or a Canadian economist

或者一个加拿大的经济学家，

or, God forbid, an English economist --

或者，千万不要，一个英国的经济学家，

Actually the nice thing is they're not good at economics anymore.

其实好消息是， 他们已经不再擅长于经济领域。

It's so beautiful, isn't it?

太好了，不是吗？

(Laughter)

（笑声）

Praise the Lord. Praise the Lord.

感谢上帝，感谢上帝。

(Laughter)

（笑声）

But I'd come here armed with the tools of my trade.

如果我是他们，我会 带着我的专业技能来到这里。

You know, the graphs and the charts and the maths and all that good stuff.

你知道的，像图表、图例和数字 这些好东西。

But I'm an Irish economist,

但我是一个爱尔兰的经济学家，

so I'm only going to come here armed

所以我来到这儿只带了

with some lines and some verses of poetry.

几句诗句。

(Laughter)

（笑声）

Yeah.

真的。

(Applause)

（掌声）

Thank you very much, the poets in the corner.

非常感谢您，坐在角落里的诗人。

We're a small minority.

我们是少数派。

(Laughter)

（笑声）

But perfectly formed.

但我们麻雀虽小，五脏俱全。

Now, I want to talk to you about a poem that was written in 1919

我想和你们聊聊 一首写于 1919 年的诗。

called "The Second Coming" by W.B. Yeats, our national poet.

题目是《再次降临》， 作者是威廉·巴特勒·叶芝，

我国的国宝诗人。

And the fascinating thing about crisis,

一件关于危机的趣事，

so in 1919, 100-odd years ago --

就在 1919 年， 距今一百零几年前，

the fascinating thing about crisis is that every generation

关于危机的趣事是，每一代人

feels that their crisis is the big one.

都认为他们经历的是最大的危机。

We're kind of narcissistic about it, right?

我们都有点自恋，对吧？

But every generation experiences crisis.

但是每一代人会经历危机。

Every generation, our parents, our grandparents, they all did.

每一代人，我们的父母，祖父母， 他们都经历过。

How we deal with the crisis

如何应对危机

is the definitive issue for our generation.

是我们这一代人最为重要的问题。

So Yates is sitting in Dublin, 1919.

1919 年叶芝住在都柏林。

He's trying to make sense of the world, right?

他想了解这个世界，对吧？

His world is changing rapidly.

他所处在的世界正飞速变化着。

The German Empire is over.

德意志帝国倒了。

The Austrian Empire is over.

奥地利帝国倒了。

The Ottoman Empire is over.

奥斯曼帝国倒了。

Ireland has declared a war of independence against Britain,

爱尔兰已经发动战争， 反对英国对爱尔兰的统治。

which, if you were a betting man,

如果你想赌一把的话，

you wouldn't really give us,

你不会支持我们，

not our side, you wouldn't have given us good odds.

你不会觉得我们能赢。

And Yeats is trying to figure out not just what is happening,

叶芝不只想弄明白正在发生什么，

but what is likely to happen.

还想知道未来可能会发生什么。

And he writes these words, and just listen to them

他写下了这些文字，让我们来听听看，

and imagine they were written now.

想象这些文字写于现在。

“The Second Coming.”

《再次降临》

“Turning and turning in the widening gyre /

“旋转、旋转，那不断扩张的螺旋，

The falcon cannot hear the falconer; /

鹰隼听不见主人的呼唤，

Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold; /

万物已分崩离析； 中心已无法守住；

Mere anarchy is loosed on the world, /

世界的秩序混乱，

A blood-dimmed tide is loosed,

到处泛滥，泛滥， 还有被鲜血玷污的潮水，

and everywhere /

The procession of innocence is drowned; /

各地，天真的仪式早已经淹没；

The best lack all conviction,

优秀的人都缺乏信念，

the worst /

而败类

Are full of passionate intensity.”

却总是满怀激情，狂热而执着。”

Just let those words lie.

仔细想想这几句话。

“Things fall apart,

“万物已分崩离析”，

the best people lack conviction,

“优秀的人都缺乏信念，

the worst are full of passionate intensity.”

而败类，却总是满怀激情， 狂热而执着。”

Now, this is Yeats writing 100 years ago,

这是叶芝在一百年前写下的诗句。

and the historical rhythm and repetition is clear, I think, to all of us.

历史文化的节奏和重复， 对我们所有人来说都显而易见。

But what really interests me as an economist

但作为一名经济学家， 我真正感兴趣的是，

is the contrast between what Yeats, the poet,

在诗人叶芝当时所说的

was saying back then

与当时所有经济学家，

and what all the economists,

the people who were employed to think about the future, were saying.

那些被雇佣来思考未来的人 所说的内容之间的差异。

So, Yeats said,

叶芝说过：

"The center will not hold."

“中心已无法守住。”

Three years after he wrote this,

在他写下这句话后的三年后，

three years, three to four years,

三年后，三到四年后，

Mussolini was in power in Italy,

墨索里尼在意大利掌权，

Stalin was on the ascendancy in the Soviet Union

斯大林在苏联崛起，

and a little, small, unprepossessing man with a mustache called Adolf Hitler

一个个头不高的，不引人注目的， 留着小胡子的男人阿道夫·希特勒，

had just orchestrated a putsch in Munich.

刚在慕尼黑策划了一场政变。

Yates was right.

叶芝是对的。

Yates was right.

叶芝是对的。

And what were all the economists saying back then?

然而当时所有的经济学家 都在说些什么呢？

The people who were paid to think about the future?

那些被花钱雇来思考未来的人？

They were all saying, "Oh, don't worry, we'll go back to the gold --"

经济学家们都在说： “哦，别担心，我们会回到金本位制。”

Not all, the vast majority --

并非所有人，但绝大多数人都在说： “我们会重返金本位制。

"We will go back to the gold standard.

We'll trade again.

我们会再次进行贸易。

Germany will pay all its reparations

德国将支付所有赔款，

and the First World War will have been the war to end all wars."

第一次世界大战将是结束一切战争。”

How wrong could they be?

他们错得多么离谱？

So what's always bugged me

所以一直让我困扰的是，

is why did the poet get things so right at a tipping point,

为什么诗人能在临界点上 做出正确的判断，

and the economists get things so wrong?

而经济学家却错得如此离谱？

And I believe it is because the poet, the artist, the musician,

我相信这是因为， 诗人、艺术家、音乐家，

these types of people give themselves, at a tipping point,

这些类型的人在临界点上

the permission to think unconventionally.

允许自己不受限制地思考。

They see the world differently.

他们以不同的视角看这个世界。

Do we value the unconventional thinker?

我们重视这些有非常规思维的人吗？

Do we?

我们重视吗？

And maybe the best way to answer that question

也许回答这个问题的最好的方式

is to go all the way back to school,

是回到校园，

to the place we begin to learn.

回到我们开始学习的地方。

Now just bring yourselves back to your school days.

现在，让我们回想一下自己的校园时光。

Remember yourself at 13.

回想当你还是 13 岁时的样子。 回想当年的你自己。

Just remember the person you were.

I remember the classroom.

我记得那个教室，

I remember the teachers, I remember the building,

我记得那些老师们，那座建筑，

I remember the break, I remember everything.

我记得那些课间休息时间， 我记得一切。

I remember the sports day, I remember the whole thing.

我记得那些运动会日， 我记得发生过的一切。

In fact, there's a gang of five of us who've hung around

我们有一个五人组，

since we were in school.

从上学时就一直在一起。

And those five lads I was in school with

那五个和我一起上学的伙伴，

spent the entire of our school years looking out the window

整个学生时代都在盯着窗外。

They just didn't get it.

他们就是搞不明白学校的意义。

They just didn't get school at all.

And they've gone on to have incredibly successful lives

但他们后来都拥有了非常成功的人生，

in their own individual ways.

用他们各自的方式。

But their intelligence,

但他们拥有的智慧， 当时在学校里并没有被认识到。

their form of intelligence, was not recognized.

And as we get older,

当我们长大以后，

we realize the world is full of various different intelligences.

我们意识到世界充满了 各种不同类型的智慧。

But back in school,

但在学生时代，

we only really recognized one type of intelligence.

我们只认可一种类型的智慧。

And that was like the little kid who could come in -- big, wide-eyed kid, right? --

我们认可的是那种 睁着大大眼睛的小孩，对吧？

he’d come in, could absorb all this information into his head or her head,

他来到学校，将所有他能吸收到的 信息装进他的脑袋里，

opened some sort of weird compartment,

他的脑袋腾出神奇的空间， 把所有的信息都一个劲儿塞进去。

stuff it all in, stuff, stuff, stuff it all in.

And then, in early June,

然后在六月初， 当爱尔兰的天气变好的时候，

when the weather gets good in Ireland --

and I presume it’s the same all over the place except for Vancouver --

我想除了温哥华，其它地方 这时候天气都挺好，

像疯子一样拼命书写，对吧？

write like bejesus, right?

That was the type of intelligence we rewarded.

那就是我们奖励的那类智慧。

It's like getting a prize for being a walking filing cabinet, right?

我们奖励的是行走的档案柜，不是吗？

(Laughter)

（笑声）

That's one intelligence.

那是一种智慧。

It is an intelligence, but it's only one type of intelligence.

那是种智慧，但只是 众多智慧类型中的一种。

And what about all the other kids over here,

那么，其他的孩子怎么办呢？ 那些没有这种智慧的孩子？

the kids who didn’t get it? ...

They weren't not only recognized,

他们的智慧非但没有被认可，

their intelligence was besmirched,

他们的智慧甚至被认为是污点，

humiliated

并被羞辱与贬低。

and belittled.

My daughter is dyslexic.

我的女儿患有阅读障碍症。

She hated every single day of school.

她每天都痛恨上学。

And as a result of this system,

在这个系统下， 我们社会上发生了一件奇怪的事，

we have a strange thing in our society

where there are thousands of incredibly clever people

成千上万的聪明人

who left school feeling stupid.

从学校毕业时觉得自己很蠢。

But the corollary is also the case.

由此可推论，

There are many actually quite stupid people --

实际上有许多相当愚蠢的人，

(Laughter)

（笑声）

You know where I'm going --

你知道我要说什么，

Who left school feeling very, very clever.

他们离开学校时觉得自己很聪明。

And those kids, when they were really good kids,

那些孩子中表现最好的， 他们曾在学校拿最好的成绩。

they used to get the best marks in school.

在爱尔兰，我们会给他们小星星，对吧。

In Ireland, we have a little star over the right.

当然，老师会告诉他们，他们很聪明。

And of course, the teacher told them they were clever,

牧师、修女们也这么夸他们，

and the priests, the nuns,

and of course, their mummy told them they were clever, right?

当然他们的妈妈也告诉他们， 他们很聪明，对吧？

If you want to get a sense of an Irish mummy,

如果你想知道爱尔兰妈妈 是什么样的，她们是那种

an Irish mummy is the sort of mother

that makes an American soccer mom look unambitious.

让美国足球妈妈看上去没有野心的母亲。

(Laughter)

（笑声）

I know, I have one, right?

我知道，我妈妈就是这样，对吧？

I am the son of a retired schoolteacher.

我是一名退休中学教师的儿子。

If anybody else in the room is the son or daughter of a schoolteacher,

如果在场有其他人是中学教师的子女，

we can form a self-help group later on to deal with our trauma, right?

我们可以之后组建一个互助小组 来解决我们的创伤，好吗？

But those sort of kids,

但那种类型的孩子，

they do extremely, extremely well in school,

他们在中学表现的十分特别好。

then they do very, very well in college.

然后他们在大学的表现也十分优异。

And then they get on, because they do very, well,

然后因为他们做得非常出色， 他们会进入实习项目，入职大银行，

on to the graduate trainee programs and they join the big banks,

and they join the big firms and they join insurance companies,

进入大公司，入职保险公司，

they join the consultancies, and they're on the fast track.

加入咨询公司， 他们走上了人生的快车道。

They’re on the fast track career-wise.

在职业生涯上，他们走上了快车道。

And something weird happens as their career progresses.

随着他们职业生涯的发展， 一些奇怪的事情发生了。

We like to think that we surround ourselves

我们常常认为我们被

with people who think differently,

拥有不同思想方式的人包围着。

but we don't.

但事实并非如此。

There's something called confirmation bias.

有一种叫做确认偏差的东西。

We actually surround ourselves with people who confirm our biases.

我们实际上将自己置身于 与我们观点相符的人之中。

And how this works in institutions is the following.

非常规思维在机构中的应用方式如下。

We end up employing people who think like us, right?

我们最终会雇佣那些 与我们思维相同的人，对吗？

And like, if you imagine an interview process,

你可以想象一下面试流程：

so the person goes into the interview and there's two clever persons saying,

面试者和面试官都是聪明人， 互相吹捧说：

"No, no, you're clever." "You're clever, you're amazing."

“不，不，您很聪明。” “您可太棒了。”

"You've got that grade." "You went to that university."

“哎呀，您成绩这么好。” “天哪，您毕业于那所大学。”

"I read that paper you wrote." "You're clever, clever, amazing."

“我拜读了您写的那篇论文。” “您很聪明，您真是太棒了。”

"Feck it, just have the job."

“哎呀我去，这份工作就给您了吧。”

So the interview becomes --

所以这个面试就变成了这样。

By the way, I said “feck” there.

顺便说一句，我刚才 说的是“哎呀我去”（feck）。

Not the other word.

不是另一个词。

Feck is a sort of a linguistic version of a white lie.

“哎呀我去” 算是 语言学里的白色谎言。

OK?

好吗？在家庭环境中也可以使用。

It's used at home.

Now, what actually happens is

那么，实际上， 面试过程变得跟交友软件一样，

the interview process just becomes like a Tinder

for people who can do algebra.

只不过是给会代数的人设计的，对吧。

OK.

(Laughter)

（笑声）

So they all go into the institution

于是他们都进入体制， 然后你会发现，群体思维出现了。

and then what you get, you get groupthink

because everyone's thinking the same way.

因为每个人都在以同样的方式思考。

And of course,

当然，因为这些人一直都是 总能回答正确的聪明孩子，

because these people have always been the clever kids with the right answer,

they defined themselves, "I'm the person with the right answer."

他们对自己的定义是： “我是那个手握正确答案的人”。

当你是那个一直拿着正确答案的人， 会发生什么呢？

And what happens when you’re the person who always has the right answer?

你很难承认错误，对吗？

It’s very hard to be wrong.

So it breeds a sort of an overconfidence.

所以它滋生出了一种过度自信。

And we know that overconfidence

我们知道过度自信，

and overconfident people

过度自信的人，

can really overestimate their competence's critical moments.

很可能在关键时刻大大高估自己的能力。

The thing comes from a thing called Dunning-Kruger in psychology.

这是一个心理学概念， 叫作达克（ Dunning-Kruger）效应。

It's a great story.

这里有个好故事。

A fella goes in to rob a bank in America.

一个小伙子在美国去抢劫一家银行。

Somewhere, I think Pittsburgh, down there somewhere.

应该是在匹兹堡附近。

In the '90s, a lad goes into rob a bank, OK?

在上世纪九十年代， 一个小伙子去抢劫一家银行，

He runs into the bank ... he’s got no mask, no balaclava,

他跑进一家银行，监视摄像头开着， 他没有戴面具头套，

no nothing, right?

什么都没有。

The security camera looks at him.

监视器对着他。

And he winks at it.

他对监视器挤了挤眼。

He winks again, big smile, "Hi, how are you?"

他再次眨眼，给了一个大大的微笑： ”嗨，你好吗？“

He goes in, holds up the bank, robs the thing.

他走了进去，控制了这个银行， 实施了抢劫，然后转身离开。

Goes off.

Coppers, come in,

警察来了，看了看监控录像。

look at the securities.

"See this geezer, just waved to the camera.

“看那个怪人， 他向摄像头招手。有谁认识他吗？”

Does anyone know him?"

“是他啊，他住在街角， 在第二个街区附近。

"Oh, yeah, he lives around the corner, around the second block,

第六个房子，三楼。”

sixth house, up third floor."

警察说好的，去了那里敲开了门。

So they arrive and bang on the door,

the man's there, I presume, kind of eating a takeaway or something.

那个人就在那里， 我猜就在吃个外卖什么的。

And copper said, "We want to bang you off for the bank robbery."

警察说：“因为你抢劫银行， 我们要立即逮捕你。”

And he said, "How do you mean, the bank robbery?"

那个人说：“什么抢劫银行？”

“我们在监视器上看到 你去银行抢劫，跟我们走。”

“We’ve got you on camera for the bank robbery ... here we go.”

“什么叫你看到我去银行抢劫？” “我们在监视器看到了！”

"How do you mean?" "We've got you!"

“How could you possibly know? I wore the juice!”

“你们怎么可能知道是我？ 我淋了柠檬汁！”

Copper looks at him, says, “What?”

警察看着他说：“什么？”

Do you remember when we were kids?

你们记得当我们还是孩子的时候， 有一种东西叫隐形墨水？

Invisible ink?

And you put lemon juice on the invisible ink --

当你把柠檬汁淋在隐形墨水上——

this is a true story --

这是真事——

and you disappear.

字体就会隐形。

Your man covered his face with lemon juice

这个人把他的脸淋上了一层柠檬汁，

and he thought he was invisible.

然后他就以为自己隐形了。

The overconfident overestimating their competence.

这个过度自信的人高估了自己的能力。

Now, when the psychologists thought about this,

当心理学家研究这个问题时， 他们实际上做了很多很多的测试。

they actually did lots and lots of tests.

And apparently it's true, that this is a thing in society.

显然这是社会中真实发生的事情。

And surprise, surprise,

不出预料，

the Dunning-Kruger effect is much more prevalent

达克效应在男性中比女性更普遍。

in men than women.

Who would have known?

谁能想到呢？

(Laughter)

（笑声）

Shock horror.

难以置信。

I can see it in my own family.

我自己家里就是这样。

Our son, for example, comes home, teenager, after doing an exam.

举个例子，我的儿子是个青少年， 考完试回到家。

Hasn't done a tap of work, right?

什么都没复习，对吧？

Comes in the door and everyone in the family's in the kitchen saying,

他走进门来，所有在厨房的家人都问他：

“你考的怎么样呀？”

"How did you do in your exam?"

And he says, "Oh, Jesus, I aced that, man, no problem."

然后他说：“老天爷， 我这次考得可好了。”

And he fails all the time.

然后他每次都考砸了。

(Laughter)

（笑声）

All the time.

每一次。

So you see these things and that again it happens.

这样的事反复发生。

And of course,

当然，

how this happens in institutions is you get very overconfident people,

这种情况在机构中发生的原因是， 你会看到非常过度自信的人，

very intelligent, can't make mistakes.

他们十分聪明，不会犯任何错误。

And we saw that in the 2008 financial crisis.

大家在 2008 年金融危机有目共睹。

2008, the biggest financial crisis the world has ever seen.

2008 年发生了史上 最严重的金融危机。

And the vast majority of economists and the Fed and the Bank of England

绝大多数经济学家， 以及美联储和英格兰银行，

and the European Central Bank and Wall Street

欧洲中央银行和华尔街，

missed the whole thing.

错误判断了这整个事件。

In fact, the Queen of England went to the LSC

事实上，英国女王去了趟伦敦商业学院，

about two or three months after the crash and she said,

就在危机爆发两三个月之后。

她说：“如果你们这些家伙很聪明的话，

"If you chaps were so clever,

how come none of you saw this coming?"

为什么没有任何一个人预见到这件事？”

(Laughter)

（笑声）

And she was right.

她是对的。

(Laughter)

（笑声）

Because they all were wearing the juice.

因为他们都淋着柠檬汁呢。

(Laughter)

（笑声）

The economics juice.

经济学版的柠檬汁。对吧？

Now, JK Galbraith, very famous Canadian economist.

约翰·加尔布雷斯（JK Galbraith） 是非常著名的加拿大经济学家，

But Galbraith said something fascinating about the conventional person.

但他对常规思维的人有一段精彩的评论。

He said, "When faced with the choice between changing his mind

他说：“是改变自己的观点，

and finding the proof not to do so,

还是为了坚持己见 给观点找证据，

the conventional man always gets busy looking for the proof."

一个常规思维的人总是选择后者。”

And that's when we make big mistakes at these critical moments.

这就是我们在危机时刻 做出错误判断的原因。

Leonard Cohen,

莱昂纳德·科恩，

the Canadian poet,

一位加拿大诗人，

put it differently, the same idea.

说过另一句话，内容相似。

Cohen said,

科恩说：

"There is a crack in everything.

“所有的东西都有裂痕。

And that is how the light gets in."

光就是这么照进来的。“

What Cohen was saying to us was,

科恩的话告诉我们，

look for the cracks, look into the cracks.

要寻找裂缝，透过裂缝往里看。

That's where we'll see the big picture.

这样我们才能看到全局。

So let’s just leave the Canadian poet,

让我们从这位加拿大诗人的话，

go back to an Irish poet.

回到爱尔兰诗人的诗句中。

The words of "The Second Coming" again,

《再次降临》中的诗句再一次

our world right now.

映射了我们现在的世界。

“Turning and turning in the widening gyre /

“旋转、旋转，那不断扩张的螺旋，

The falcon cannot hear the falconer; /

鹰隼听不见主人的呼唤，

Things fall apart; the center cannot hold; /

万物已分崩离析； 中心已无法守住；

Mere anarchy is loosed on the world, /

世界的秩序混乱，

A blood-dimmed tide is loosed,

到处泛滥， 泛滥，还有被鲜血玷污的潮水，

and everywhere, / The procession of innocence is drowned.”

各地，天真的仪式早已经淹没。”

And why, says Yeats?

叶芝继续问：为什么会这样？

Because the best lack all conviction

因为“优秀的人都缺乏信念，

and the worst are full of passionate intensity.

而败类却总是满怀激情，狂热而执着。”

Now apply that to our world.

现在把这些映射到我们的世界。

And if you, at this tipping point say,

如果你在当下这个转折点说：

"Nah, you know, it's not my problem,

“哎呀，问题不在我。 我也缺乏信念呀。”对吧？

I lack all conviction."

Right?

“I go and watch baseball,”

“我不过就是看看棒球赛。” 或者跑柱式棒球赛啥的，对吗？

or rounders or whatever that game is you guys watch, right?

But if you lack all conviction,

但如果你缺乏信念，

what actually happens is the worst people in our society,

实际发生的是，我们社会中最糟糕的人，

with their passionate intensity, their certitude, their simple ideas,

以他们热情的强度， 他们的自信，他们简单的想法，

they will win the day at this tipping point.

他们将在这个转折点获胜。

And they will win the day because the best people back away

他们会赢得胜利， 因为最优秀的人会退出，

from the responsibility.

为了逃避责任。

And what Yates was also saying about the best people

关于最聪明的人， 叶芝还说了以下的内容：

was the following.

He said, mandate the best.

“赋予最聪明的人权利。”

The poets, the artists,

诗人，艺术家，

the musicians,

音乐家，

because they are the people who see the possibilities.

因为他们是看到可能性的人。

They see the possibilities

他们能看到可能性，

because they see the world from a different angle.

因为他们从不同的角度看这个世界。

They have to be part of the solution.

他们必须是解决方案的一部分。

So my idea

所以我的想法是，

that I think is worth spreading is the following.

我认为值得传播的信息如下：

If you want to understand the world a little bit more clearly,

如果你想更清楚地了解这个世界，

listen less to my tribe, the economists,

少听我们这群经济学家们的意见，

and listen more to Yeats's tribe, the poets.

多听听叶芝这样的诗人们的声音。

Thank you very much.

谢谢。

(Applause)

（掌声）

Thank you very much.

非常感谢。