Nili Gilbert: The crucial intersection of climate and capital | TED Countdown

翻译人员: Yijia Yu 校对人员: Yip Yan Yeung

For the past two decades,

在过去的二十年里,

I've been professionally managing assets

我一直在为大型金融机构 做资产的专业管理。

for large financial institutions.

But you know, this wasn't my plan when I first entered the workforce.

但你们知道吗，我刚工作时 其实并没有想过要从事这个领域。

I was a 20-year-old dreamer who wanted to change the world.

在我 20 岁的时候， 一直梦想着要改变世界。

And so at first I entered a nonprofit.

所以我最初 加入了一个非盈利组织。

And this was where I started asking myself questions

在那里工作的时候， 我开始思考一些问题，

about how we attribute value to things as a society,

比如，要怎么做才能 以社会为整体为事物赋予价值？

and how capital affects our shared reality.

再比如，资本又是怎样影响 我们共有的社会现实的呢？

And this was what made me want to enter the finance sector.

对这些问题的思考成为了 我后来进入金融领域的契机。

And you know what?

而且你们知道吗，

Still, today, I believe that changing the markets

今天我也依然坚信着，

can be a way to change the world.

改变市场是改变世界的一种方式。

Today, among investors,

现如今的投资者们

there are a lot of questions about decarbonizing portfolios

对脱碳的投资组合

and how to achieve net-zero.

和如何达到净零碳热议不断。

But when I think about the intersection of climate and capital,

但就我个人而言， 每每想到气候与资本的联动时，

I’m always asking myself:

我都会问自己：

What effect is this really having on the ground?

这种联动对现实的影响 究竟能有多大？

Because there could be a profound difference between investing

毕竟，仅仅为保护你自己的资产 不受气候变化影响而投资，

just to protect your assets from the effects of climate change

和真的为抑制气候变化的 破坏性影响而投资

and actually investing to prevent those effects from coming about.

是两种截然不同的概念。

You could imagine creating a portfolio that appears to be decarbonized on paper

而且，有时你发起一项投资项目， 从构想上看来好像有助于脱碳，

but that doesn't have any real effect on the trajectory of climate.

但现实中却并不能 真正影响到气候变化的轨迹。

And I would argue that that type of risk management on paper

在我看来，这种 构想层面上的风险管理，

will also one day prove to have been just an illusion.

终有一天也会被证明 只是一种幻觉。

Because what the world really needs is real decarbonization.

因为世界迫切需要的是 真正的去碳化。

We need to decarbonize the old economy that we have

我们该做的是让目前的 旧经济模式实现脱碳，

and invest to create the new economy that we need.

并投资创建我们 所需要的新经济模式。

It needs to be an economy that emits no more than it can remove,

在这种经济模式下，经济活动的 排放量绝不会超过环境承载力。

and that does this in a way that is net-positive

而经济活动的方式总的来说 也是有利于地球，有利于人类的。

for the planet and the people.

(Applause)

（掌声）

Estimates suggest that it will cost three to five trillion dollars a year

据估计，从今天到 2050 年，

我们每年要花费三到五万亿美元， 才能最终实现净零碳。

between now and 2050, to achieve net-zero.

Just to give you an idea of how much that is,

这笔钱有多少呢？ 如果做个类比的话，

it would be like investing the entire GDP of Germany or Japan

三到五亿美元就相当于每年投入 整个德国或者日本的年总产值，

every year, annually, for 30 years.

这样投资 30 年。

So financial capital has a huge role to play

因此，金融资本的作用是很关键的，

in our shared success

我们或因它而成功，

or our shared failure.

或因它而失败。

And achieving decarbonization in the world

想要实现全球范围的去碳化，

instead of just investment portfolios

我们不仅仅要发起各项投资项目,

is going to require us to make some very big moves.

我们还需要做出一些大动作。

First of all,

首先，

we need to focus on innovative transformation across every sector.

在所有经济领域中， 我们需要注重革新式转型，

And then focus even deeper

其中又尤其要注重

on the science-based transformations that are required within each industry

每一产业需要的科学式转型。

so that every industry can become clean and future-proof.

这样才能保证各产业的发展 是绿色的、可持续的发展。

You know, nowadays there are some green or ESG portfolios

如今有一些绿色或者符合 ESG标准的投资组合，

that have been focused mostly

它们的投资对象主要是 低碳行业，比如说科技。

on investing in low-carbon sectors like tech.

But what I think we really need to do today

但我认为，如今我们真正应该做的 是开始重点投资重工业，

is start focusing on heavy sectors

like industrials, materials and infrastructure,

比如工业、材料和基建等领域，

and use our capital to reward those companies

并用我们投入的资金激励那些 真正致力于深度脱碳的公司。

that are really focused on deep decarbonization.

Let me give you an example of what I mean.

我举一个例子：

The cement sector emits about eight percent of global greenhouse gases.

水泥产业排放的温室气体 大约占了全球的 8% 。

And so a lot of low-carbon funds

所以有很多低碳项目基金 就会减少他们对水泥产业的投资，

will actually decrease their investments in cement

and instead increase their holdings in low carbon companies like, say,

转而增加他们在低碳公司的股份， 例如，社交媒体。

social media.

(Laughs)

（笑声)

But in one portfolio that I help to oversee,

但在我监督的一个投资项目中，

one of the world's largest cement producers

世界上规模最大的水泥生产商之一

is actually our top-emitting holding.

是我们参股的最高碳排放公司。

But this company has committed to achieving

不过这家公司制定了宏图大略，

a zero-carbon production facility by 2030

致力于在 2030 年前 实现生产设备的零碳化，

and net-zero firmwide by 2050.

并在 2050 年前 实现全企业净零。

Now, I know some of you may be asking: Is this company greenwashing?

我知道有些人可能要问： 这家公司是在虚假公关“洗绿”吗？

Are they really going to be able to do that?

他们真的能做到吗？

Will they do it on time?

真的能按时达成这些目标吗?

But what I can tell you is that the company's already making

但我能告诉你们， 这家公司为实现这些目标，

significant investments towards these goals

已经投入了大量资金，

and as shareholders,

而作为股东，

we're going to be long-term capital providers

我们也将成为该公司的长期赞助商，

to stick with them and encourage them to achieve these goals along the way.

我们将与他们并肩作战， 鼓励他们最终实现这些宏伟目标。

(Applause)

（掌声）

In another portfolio that I help to oversee,

在我监管的另一个投资项目里，

we're focused on investing in the innovations

我们投资的对象就是

that make this kind of ambition possible.

实现这种宏伟目标的创新技术。

Like, investing in novel designs for the kilns that produce cement,

比如，我们投资用于水泥生产的窑炉 这项新颖的设计，

which actually remove emissions

有助于在最密集的生产点上

at the most intensive point of production.

有效处理排放物。

Or like another technology that actually takes captured carbon

再比如，有一种技术 能够捕获排放中的碳成分，

and injects it into the cement in a way that also lowers costs.

并将其注入水泥， 这样还可以减少成本。

I think that these are the kinds of companies

我认为这样的公司 才真正值得我们的资金支持。

that we should be committing our capital to.

(Applause)

(掌声）

And we need to get moving.

我们应该尽快行动。

Institutional investors like me will often wait for years and years

像我这样的机构投资人 往往会等上很多年

for new strategies to be proven.

直到那些新的投资策略 证明有效以后才出手。

But today investors really need to start leaning into innovation

但在今天，投资者们 真的需要开始重视创新，

and aggressively scaling the very best solutions that we can find.

并且积极寻找环境问题的 最佳解决方案。

And it won't be hard to find them

想要找到解决方案不会很难，

because the climate revolution is expected to make the industrial revolution

毕竟在未来，相比于气候革命， 如今的工业革命

and the information revolution pale by comparison.

和信息革命都将显得逊色。

OK.

那么接下来，

So secondly in achieving all of this,

实现这些目标的第二步是，

the next thing that we need to do is realize that our goals,

要意识到我们的这些目标，

like poverty and climate,

比如解决贫困问题和气候问题，

are actually interconnected.

其实都是相互关联的。

The climate transition actually offers an amazing opportunity to be accretive,

气候转变实际上为经济和社会

both in terms of the economy and society

提供了一个极好的增长机会。

because of the very nature of the deep rebalance

因为我们现在面对的问题

that we now have to go through.

本质上是深度的再平衡。

So climate change affects things like poverty,

因此，气候变化会 影响到贫穷、健康、

it affects health, biodiversity, our global connectedness.

生物多样性、 全球互联等很多领域。

And all of these things affect climate change, too,

而所有这些因素反过来 也会影响气候变化。

in fact, all 17 of the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals

事实上，所有 17 个 联合国可持续发展目标

are interrelated and inseparable.

都是相互关联、不可分割的。

So we need to start realizing

所以我们应该意识到

that we can't solve any of these things in isolation.

我们不能孤立地解决这些问题。

We need to align our decarbonization goals

我们需要使我们的脱碳化目标

with our social goals

与我们的社会目标结合起来，

to be able to achieve any of them at all.

这样才能一个不落， 最终达成所有目标。

(Applause)

（掌声）

Next, we need to realize

接下来，我们需要认识到，

that our climate action cannot be localized.

气候行动是不可能 仅仅在某个区域开展的。

Greenhouse gases don't hover over any one country,

温室气体不会 只存在于某一个国家，

emissions anywhere means warming everywhere.

世界上任何地方的排放 都会导致全球气候变暖。

So for us investors,

因此，对于我们这些投资者，

we need to get over our home-country biases

现在最需要做的是 克服“祖国优先”的偏见。

that cause us to allocate capital often too close to where we live.

在这些偏见的驱使下，我们总把资本 分配到离我们很近的地方。

In order to increase investments to emerging markets,

为了增加对新兴市场的投资，

we need to first realize that two-thirds of the remaining investments

我们首先要意识到，如果想 通过投资实现气候转变的目标，

that need to be made to achieve the climate transition

那么剩余的这些投资中， 有三分之二都应该

will need to be made outside of North America and Europe.

走向北美和欧洲以外的市场。

Whereas too much of our investments are being made here today.

然而，如今我们的投资 大多都还局限于本地。

Increasing investments to emerging markets will mean advancing innovative structures

增加对新兴市场的投资 意味着推进创新结构,

like blended finance,

比如混合融资，

that can help to augment public-private partnerships

这有助于加强公私伙伴关系

and collaboration with development finance institutions.

并巩固与发展金融机构的合作。

But you know what?

但是你们知道吗？

I think that we're also going to have to make

我认为我们也需要

some behavioral changes within ourselves.

从自身出发， 作出一些行为上的改变。

Like addressing our ambiguity bias

比如改变一些模棱两可的偏见，

that causes us to financially undervalue

这些偏见通常会使我们低估

anything that seems foreign or complex.

所有陌生或复杂事物的经济价值。

(Applause)

（掌声）

So I'm not as naive anymore as I was back when I was 20.

所以我现在不像 20 岁时那么天真了。

But you know what?

但是你们知道吗?

I still believe that changing the markets can be a way to change the world.

我仍然认为改变市场是 改变世界的一种方式。

Achieving the climate transition in a way that is just,

以一种公正的、 世界的和相互关联的方式

global and interconnected

实现气候转型

is the challenge of our times.

是这个时代的重大挑战。

And the finance sector has a critical role to play.

金融在这个挑战中 起到了至关重要的作用。

But we need to do it in a way

但是我们得保证

that is focused on serious science-based solutions --

这些资金是分配给那些 真正具有科学性的方案的，

not just in our investment portfolios

不仅是我们的投资组合里的方案，

but out there in the real world.

还有世界各地的方案。

Thank you.

谢谢。

(Applause)

（掌声）