Nili Gilbert: The crucial intersection of climate and capital | TED Countdown

譯者: Lily Cheng 審譯者: Amanda Zhu

For the past two decades,

過去 20 年

I've been professionally managing assets

我的職業是管理 一些大型金融機構的資產

for large financial institutions.

但你知道嗎

But you know, this wasn't my plan when I first entered the workforce.

這跟我初入職場時的計劃完全不同

I was a 20-year-old dreamer who wanted to change the world.

那時我還是一位 充滿夢想的 21 歲女孩

想要改變世界

And so at first I entered a nonprofit.

一開始，我進入一家非營利企業

And this was where I started asking myself questions

這時我開始問自己一些問題

about how we attribute value to things as a society,

我們作為社會整體 如何賦予事物價值

and how capital affects our shared reality.

資本又如何影響我們存在的現實

And this was what made me want to enter the finance sector.

這就是讓我想進入金融行業的原因

And you know what?

後來怎麼樣了呢？

Still, today, I believe that changing the markets

直到如今我仍然堅信

改變了市場就可以改變世界

can be a way to change the world.

Today, among investors,

如今在投資者當中

there are a lot of questions about decarbonizing portfolios

有許多關於減碳投資組合的問題

and how to achieve net-zero.

還有如何達到淨零排放

But when I think about the intersection of climate and capital,

當我思考氣候與資本的交集時

I’m always asking myself:

我不斷問自己：

What effect is this really having on the ground?

這對現實究竟會造成什麼影響？

Because there could be a profound difference between investing

因為下面兩種投資目標 有非常大的差別

第一種投資目標是為了保護自己的資產 免於氣候變遷的影響

just to protect your assets from the effects of climate change

and actually investing to prevent those effects from coming about.

第二種是為了真正預防氣候變遷而投資

You could imagine creating a portfolio that appears to be decarbonized on paper

你可以想像，在書面上 創造一個減碳的投資組合

but that doesn't have any real effect on the trajectory of climate.

並不代表它對氣候變遷的 軌跡有任何影響

And I would argue that that type of risk management on paper

我認為，那種書面上的風險管理

will also one day prove to have been just an illusion.

在未來某天會證明完全是自我安慰

Because what the world really needs is real decarbonization.

因為世界需要的是真正的減碳行動

We need to decarbonize the old economy that we have

我們需要對舊經濟進行減碳

and invest to create the new economy that we need.

並投資創造適合我們的新經濟

It needs to be an economy that emits no more than it can remove,

新經濟的碳排需要達到進出平衡

and that does this in a way that is net-positive

且達成目標的手段是純粹為了淨零

for the planet and the people.

為了地球及上面的人們

(Applause)

（掌聲）

Estimates suggest that it will cost three to five trillion dollars a year

根據預估，

從現在直到 2050 年 每年需要花三到五兆美元

between now and 2050, to achieve net-zero.

才能達到零碳排

Just to give you an idea of how much that is,

為了讓大家對這個數字的概念更清楚

it would be like investing the entire GDP of Germany or Japan

這就等於將德國或日本 全部的 GDP 全部投注

every year, annually, for 30 years.

並連續投資三十年

So financial capital has a huge role to play

所以金融資本扮演著非常重要的角色

in our shared success

能使我們一同成功

or our shared failure.

或一同失敗

And achieving decarbonization in the world

全世界想真正達成減碳

instead of just investment portfolios

而不只是做表面的減碳投資組合

is going to require us to make some very big moves.

我們需要做出重大的改變

First of all,

首先

we need to focus on innovative transformation across every sector.

我們必須將重點 放在各種領域的創新轉型

And then focus even deeper

然後是更深入地

on the science-based transformations that are required within each industry

專注在各領域所需、奠於科學的轉型

so that every industry can become clean and future-proof.

以便各行各業都能綠化 且對未來有所幫助

You know, nowadays there are some green or ESG portfolios

現在有一些綠色 ESG 投資組合

that have been focused mostly

主要的投資集中在 如高科技等低碳產業

on investing in low-carbon sectors like tech.

But what I think we really need to do today

但我認為，我們真正該做的

is start focusing on heavy sectors

是將重點放在高排放工業

like industrials, materials and infrastructure,

工業、材料、基礎建設等等

and use our capital to reward those companies

用資本來獎勵那些

that are really focused on deep decarbonization.

真正發展深度減碳的公司

Let me give you an example of what I mean.

這裏我給你們一個例子

The cement sector emits about eight percent of global greenhouse gases.

水泥工業排放了全球約 8% 的溫室氣體

And so a lot of low-carbon funds

所以很多低碳基金

will actually decrease their investments in cement

減少他們對水泥工業的投資

and instead increase their holdings in low carbon companies like, say,

轉而投資低碳排的公司，比如說：

social media.

社群媒體

(Laughs)

（笑聲）

But in one portfolio that I help to oversee,

但在一個我監管的投資組合中

one of the world's largest cement producers

其中一間全球最大的水泥公司

is actually our top-emitting holding.

是我們控股中碳排最高的公司

But this company has committed to achieving

然而這間公司致力於

a zero-carbon production facility by 2030

在 2030 年達到生產單位零碳排

and net-zero firmwide by 2050.

以及在 2050 年完成 全公司淨零的目標

Now, I know some of you may be asking: Is this company greenwashing?

我知道，現在你們有些人心中在想： 這間公司在漂綠吧？

Are they really going to be able to do that?

他們真的可以做到嗎？

Will they do it on time?

他們有辦法按時達標嗎？

But what I can tell you is that the company's already making

我可以告訴你們的是

這間公司已經為此目標大量投資

significant investments towards these goals

and as shareholders,

而作為股東

we're going to be long-term capital providers

我們將會長期為他們提供資金

to stick with them and encourage them to achieve these goals along the way.

在過程中支持並鼓勵他們達成目標

(Applause)

（掌聲）

In another portfolio that I help to oversee,

在另一項我監管的投資組合中

we're focused on investing in the innovations

我們把目光放在

that make this kind of ambition possible.

能實現這目標的發明上

Like, investing in novel designs for the kilns that produce cement,

例如投資水泥窯的全新設計

which actually remove emissions

能夠實際減除

at the most intensive point of production.

生產階段排碳熱點的碳排放

Or like another technology that actually takes captured carbon

或比如另一項技術能捕集碳

and injects it into the cement in a way that also lowers costs.

並注入水泥中

在這過程中還能減少成本

I think that these are the kinds of companies

我認為這樣的公司

that we should be committing our capital to.

才是值得我們注資的企業

(Applause)

（掌聲）

And we need to get moving.

我們必須展開行動

Institutional investors like me will often wait for years and years

像我這樣的機構投資者 通常會等上好幾年

for new strategies to be proven.

等投資策略能證明有效才行動

But today investors really need to start leaning into innovation

但如今的投資者的行動 真的必須朝著投資新發明的方向

and aggressively scaling the very best solutions that we can find.

積極地拓展最佳可行方案

And it won't be hard to find them

要找到這些方案並不困難

because the climate revolution is expected to make the industrial revolution

因為氣候革命之下

工業革命以及資訊革命都將相形失色

and the information revolution pale by comparison.

OK.

好

So secondly in achieving all of this,

為了達到目標要做的第二件事

the next thing that we need to do is realize that our goals,

我們必須認清

like poverty and climate,

貧困以及氣候等問題

are actually interconnected.

其實是互相關聯的

The climate transition actually offers an amazing opportunity to be accretive,

因應氣候變遷的轉型 其實提供了高收益的機會

both in terms of the economy and society

不管是經濟或是社會的層面

because of the very nature of the deep rebalance

這是因著我們如今 必須重新建立新的平衡

that we now have to go through.

So climate change affects things like poverty,

因此氣候變遷會影響貧困

it affects health, biodiversity, our global connectedness.

影響健康、生物多樣性、全球連結

And all of these things affect climate change, too,

這些也同樣影響著氣候變遷

in fact, all 17 of the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals

事實上，聯合國提出的 17 項永續發展目標

are interrelated and inseparable.

是相互關聯且密不可分的

So we need to start realizing

我們必須明白

that we can't solve any of these things in isolation.

這些目標無法分開解決

We need to align our decarbonization goals

我們必須連結減碳目標與社會目標

with our social goals

to be able to achieve any of them at all.

才有辦法實現這些目標

(Applause)

（掌聲）

Next, we need to realize

接下來，我們還要明白

that our climate action cannot be localized.

針對氣候的行動無法從國家面切割

Greenhouse gases don't hover over any one country,

溫室氣體可不會只停留在 某一個國家的空中

emissions anywhere means warming everywhere.

任何地方的排放 都會導致全球一起暖化

So for us investors,

而對投資者來說

we need to get over our home-country biases

我們必須擺脫對母國的偏愛

that cause us to allocate capital often too close to where we live.

不要總是將資本集中於 地理位置近的地方

In order to increase investments to emerging markets,

為了投資更多新興市場

we need to first realize that two-thirds of the remaining investments

我們要先搞清楚，想要解決氣候變遷

that need to be made to achieve the climate transition

剩下的資本中的三分之二

will need to be made outside of North America and Europe.

必須投注到北美和歐洲以外的地區

Whereas too much of our investments are being made here today.

而目前我們的本地投資實在太多了

Increasing investments to emerging markets will mean advancing innovative structures

增加對新興市場的投資 意味著推動創新結構

like blended finance,

就像混合金融

that can help to augment public-private partnerships

能透過開發性金融機構

and collaboration with development finance institutions.

增加上市與私人企業間的合夥以及合作

But you know what?

但你知道嗎？

I think that we're also going to have to make

我認為我們也必須做出一些

some behavioral changes within ourselves.

自身行為上的改變

Like addressing our ambiguity bias

比如因為模糊的偏見

that causes us to financially undervalue

導致我們在金融這一塊低估了

anything that seems foreign or complex.

所有國外的、複雜的組合

(Applause)

（掌聲）

So I'm not as naive anymore as I was back when I was 20.

所以我不再像 21 歲時那般天真了

But you know what?

你知道嗎？

I still believe that changing the markets can be a way to change the world.

我仍然堅信改變市場就能改變世界

Achieving the climate transition in a way that is just,

為了達成氣候轉型目標

必須使用公正、全球性 以及互相合作的方式

global and interconnected

is the challenge of our times.

這是我們世代的挑戰

And the finance sector has a critical role to play.

而金融業將在其中扮演關鍵角色

But we need to do it in a way

我們必須要以一種

that is focused on serious science-based solutions --

科學嚴謹的方式找出解決方案

not just in our investment portfolios

這方案不只能反映在投資組合上

but out there in the real world.

也影響我們的真實世界

Thank you.

謝謝

(Applause)

（掌聲）