How to decarbonize the grid and electrify everything | John Doerr and Hal Harvey

136,283 views ・ 2020-11-19

TED


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00:00
Transcriber: TED Translators Admin Reviewer: Rhonda Jacobs
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翻译人员: TED Translators Admin 校对人员: Yolanda Zhang
00:13
John Doerr: Hello, Hal!
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约翰·杜尔(John Doerr): 哈尔,你好!
00:14
Hal Harvey: John, nice to see you.
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哈尔·哈维(Hal Harvey): 约翰,很高兴见到你!
00:16
JD: Nice to see you too.
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约翰·杜尔:我也一样。
00:17
HH: So John, we've got a big challenge.
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哈尔·哈维:约翰, 我们现在有个大麻烦。
00:20
We need to get carbon out of the atmosphere.
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我们必须减少 大气中的二氧化碳,
00:22
We need to stop emitting carbon,
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必须停止向大气中 排放二氧化碳,
并在 2050 年实现零排放。
00:24
drive it to zero by 2050.
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00:26
And we need to be halfway there by 2030.
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我们需要在 2030 年 减少一半的排放量。
00:28
Where are we now?
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我们现在处在什么阶段呢?
00:30
JD: As you know, we're dumping 55 billion tons
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约翰·杜尔:要知道, 我们现在每年会向大气中
00:33
of carbon pollution in our precious atmosphere every year,
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排放 550 亿吨的二氧化碳,
00:37
as if it's some kind of free and open sewer.
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就好像大气是个公共排水沟一样。
00:40
To get halfway to zero by 2030,
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如果要在 2030 年 减少一半的排放量,
00:43
we're going to have to reduce annual emissions
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我们必须每年
00:45
by about 10 percent a year.
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减少 10% 的排放。
00:47
And we've never reduced annual emissions in any year
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而人类历史上每年的碳排放量
00:51
in the history of the planet.
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一直是有增无减。
00:52
So let's break this down.
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我们来具体分析一下。
00:54
Seventy-five percent of the emissions
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75% 的二氧化碳排放都来自
00:56
come from the 20 largest emitting countries.
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世界上排放量最大的 20 个国家,
00:59
And from four sectors of their economy.
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尤其在四个主要的经济领域。
01:02
The first is grid.
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首先是能源网,
01:03
Second, transportation.
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第二个是交通,
01:05
The third from the buildings.
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第三是建筑,
01:07
And the fourth from industrial activities.
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第四是工业活动。
01:09
We've got to fix all those, at speed and at scale.
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我们必须快速并大规模处理 所有这些领域所排放的二氧化碳。
01:14
HH: We do.
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哈尔·哈维: 是的。
01:15
And matters are in some ways worse than we think and some ways better.
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某些方面的情况比我们想象的要糟, 而有些方面则要好一些,
01:18
Let me start with the worse.
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我先从更糟糕的情况开始说。
01:19
Climate change is a wicked problem.
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气候变化是一个非常棘手的问题。
01:21
And what do I mean by wicked problem?
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这么说是什么意思呢?
01:23
It means it's a problem that transcends geographic boundaries.
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它是一个超越地理界限的问题。
01:26
The sources are everywhere, and the impacts are everywhere.
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碳排放无处不在, 其影响也无处不在。
01:29
Although obviously some nations have contributed much more than others.
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显然,有些国家的排放量 远超其他国家。
实际上,有关气候变化 最可怕的事情之一就是,
01:32
In fact, one of the terrible things about climate change
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is those who contributed least to it will be hurt the most.
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那些对气候变化影响最小的人 受到的伤害反而最大。
01:38
It's a great inequity machine.
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这是一个巨大的不平等机器。
01:40
So here we have a problem that you cannot solve
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因此,我们面临的这个问题
01:43
within the national boundaries of one country,
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无法在一个国家的国界内解决,
01:46
and yet international institutions are notoriously weak.
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而很显然,国际机构的作用 也相当有限。
01:49
So that's part of the wicked problem.
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这就是该问题的其中一个方面。
01:51
The second element of the wicked problem is it transcends normal timescales.
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第二个方面是, 它超越了正常的时间尺度。
01:56
We're used to news day by day,
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我们已经习惯于按日发布的新闻,
01:59
or quarterly reports for business enterprises,
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按季度发布的企业报告,
02:03
or an election cycle -- that's about the longest we think anymore of.
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或者大选,这是我们 所能想到的最长的周期了。
而气候变化是永久性的。
02:07
Climate change essentially lasts forever.
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当我们将二氧化碳排放到大气中时,
02:09
When you put carbon dioxide into the atmosphere,
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02:11
it's there, or its impacts are there, for 1,000 years.
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其影响会持续 1000 年之久,
02:14
It's a gift we keep on giving for our children, our grandchildren
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不断影响着我们的子孙后代
02:18
and dozens and dozens of generations beyond there.
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以及未来的数十代人。
02:20
JD: It sounds like a tax we keep on paying.
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约翰·杜尔:听起来就像是 我们要永久性缴纳的税款。
02:22
HH: Yeah, it is. It is.
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哈尔·哈维: 是的,没错。
02:23
You sin once, you pay forever.
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你犯了一次错, 就要付出永远的代价。
02:26
And then the third element of it being a wicked problem
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第三个方面,
02:29
is that carbon dioxide is embedded in every aspect of our industrial economy.
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就是二氧化碳已渗入 我们工业经济的各个方面。
02:34
Every car, and every truck, and every airplane, and every house,
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每辆汽车、每辆卡车、 每架飞机、每幢房屋,
02:37
and every electrical socket, and every industrial processes
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每个电源插座 以及每个工业过程
02:40
now emits carbon dioxide.
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都在排放二氧化碳。
02:42
JD: So what's the recipe?
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约翰·杜尔: 那么解决方案是什么呢?
02:44
HH: Well, here's the shortcut.
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哈尔·哈维: 的确有一条捷径,
02:45
If you decarbonize the grid, the electrical grid,
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如果能够让电网脱碳,
02:48
and then run everything on electricity --
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然后为所有设备供电——
02:50
decarbonize the grid and electrify everything --
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使电网脱碳并实现全面电气化——
如果能够做到这两点, 就能实现零碳经济。
02:53
if you do those two things, you have a zero carbon economy.
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02:56
Now, that would seem like a pipe dream just a few years ago
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就在几年前, 这一切都还是只是幻想,
02:59
because it was expensive to create a zero-carbon grid.
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因为打造零碳电网的成本很高。
03:01
But the prices of solar and wind have plummeted.
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但是太阳能和风能的价格 已经出现了大幅下降。
03:04
Solar's now the cheapest form of electricity on planet earth
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太阳能现在是地球上 最廉价的电力来源,
03:06
and wind is second.
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风能位居二位。
03:08
It means now that you can convert the grid to zero-carbon rapidly
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这就意味着,现在你可以 迅速将电网转变为零碳排放,
03:12
and save consumers money along the way.
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同时为消费者节省开支。
03:14
So there's leverage.
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所以这里有一个杠杆作用。
03:15
JD: Well, I think a key question, Hal, is do we have the technology that we need
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约翰·杜尔:哈尔,我觉得 关键的问题是,我们是否
03:21
to replace fossil fuels to get this job done?
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有合适的技术来取代化石燃料, 以实行这个计划?
03:24
And my answer is no.
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我的答案是,没有。
03:25
I think we're about 70, maybe 80 percent of the way there.
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我们大概实现了七成, 或者八成的目标。
03:29
For example, we urgently need a breakthrough in batteries.
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举个例子,我们现在急需 突破性的电池技术。
03:33
Our batteries need to be higher energy density.
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这些电池需要有更高的能量密度,
03:35
They need to have enhanced safety, faster charging.
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必须更安全、充电速度更快,
03:38
They need to take less space and less weight,
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还要更小、更轻,
03:41
and above all else, they need to cost a lot less.
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最重要的是,价格要更低。
03:43
In fact, we need new chemistries that don't rely on scarce cobalt.
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准确来说,我们需要探索新的化学元素, 而不是一味地依赖稀有的钴。
03:48
And we're going to need lots of these batteries.
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而且我们需要很多这种新型电池。
03:51
We desperately need much more research in clean energy technology.
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在绿色能源科技方面, 我们迫切的需要进行更多研究。
03:55
The US invests about 2.5 billion dollars a year.
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美国每年都会 在这类领域投资 25 亿美金。
03:59
Do you know how much Americans spend on potato chips?
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你知道每年美国人在薯片上 会花掉多少钱吗?
哈尔·哈维: 不知道。
04:02
HH: No.
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约翰·杜尔: 答案是 40 亿。
04:03
JD: The answer is 4 billion dollars.
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04:05
Now, what do you think of that?
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你怎么想?
04:06
HH: Upside down.
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哈尔·哈维: 这两个数字应该反过来。
04:08
But let me press a little further
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不过我想再深入探讨一下
04:09
on a question that's fascinated me about the Silicon Valley.
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一个让我比较着迷的 关于硅谷的问题。
04:12
So the Silicon Valley is governed by Moore's law,
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硅谷一直受到摩尔定律的约束,
04:15
where performance doubles every 18 months.
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芯片的效能每 18 个月 就会增加一倍。
04:17
It's not really a law, it's an observation,
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这并不是真正的定律, 而是一种观察,
但是可以这样理解。
04:19
but be that as it may.
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04:20
The energy world is governed by much more mundane laws,
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能源世界则受到更普遍的定律,
04:24
the laws of thermodynamics, right?
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即热力学定律的支配,对吧?
04:26
It's physical stuff in the economy.
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也就是经济体系中的事物——
04:29
Cement, trucks, factories, power plants.
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水泥、卡车、工厂、发电厂。
04:32
JD: Atoms, not bits.
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约翰·杜尔: 原子,而不是比特。
04:33
HH: Atoms, not bits. Perfect.
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哈尔·哈维: 原子,不是比特。没错。
04:35
And the transformation of big physical things is slower,
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大型实物的转换速度较慢,
04:38
and the margins are worse, and often the commodities are generic.
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利润率也比较低, 而且商品通常是通用的。
04:42
How do we stimulate the kind of innovation in those worlds
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为了拯救地球,我们如何激发
04:46
that we actually need in order to save this planet earth?
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这些领域中真正需要的创新?
04:50
JD: Well, that's a really great question.
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约翰·杜尔: 这是一个非常好的问题。
04:52
The innovation starts with basic science in research and development.
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创新始于研发领域的基础科学。
04:55
And the American commitment to that, while advanced on a global sense,
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尽管在全球范围处于领先地位, 但美国对此的承诺
05:02
is still paltry.
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仍然微不足道。
05:03
It needs to be 10 times higher
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实际投入需要比
05:05
than the, say, 2.5 billion per year that we spend on clean energy R and D.
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我们每年在清洁能源研发上 花费的 25 亿美元高 10 倍。
05:10
But we need to go beyond R and D as well.
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但是我们也需要着眼于 研发之后的阶段。
05:13
There needs to be a kind of development, a kind of pre-commercialization,
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需要有一种阶段的发展, 一种前商品化的发展,
05:19
which in the US is done by a group called ARPA-E.
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这在美国是由一个叫做 ARPA-E 的组织完成的。
05:23
Then there's the matter of forming new companies.
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然后就是组建新公司的问题。
05:26
HH: Yes.
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哈尔·哈维: 是的。
约翰·杜尔:我认为企业的能源需求 正在转移回这个领域。
05:27
JD: And I think entrepreneurial energy is shifting back into that field.
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05:32
It's clear that it takes longer and more capital,
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显然,这需要更长的时间 和更多的资金,
05:35
but you can build a really substantial and valuable enterprise or company.
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但是你可以建立一个真正重要 而有价值的企业或公司。
05:41
HH: Yes.
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哈尔·哈维: 是的。
05:42
JD: Tesla's a prime example. Beyond Meat is another one.
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约翰·杜尔:特斯拉就是一个很好的例子, 还有 Beyond Meat(人造肉生产商)。
05:45
And that's inspiring entrepreneurs globally.
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这鼓舞了全球的企业家。
05:48
But that's not enough.
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但这还不够。
05:50
I think you need also a demand signal, in the form of policies and purchases,
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我认为,还需要像德国那样 利用太阳能的国家,
05:54
from nations, like Germany did with solar, to go make these markets happen.
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以政策和采购的形式 发出需求信号,以创建这些的市场。
05:59
And so I'm, at heart, a capitalist.
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从本质上讲,我是一个资本家。
06:02
I think this energy crisis is the mother of all markets.
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我认为这场能源危机 位于所有市场的核心。
06:09
And it will take longer.
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这将需要更长的时间。
06:11
But the market for electric vehicle batteries -- 500 billion dollars a year.
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但是电动汽车电池市场的规模 已经达到了每年 5000 亿美元。
06:17
It's probably another 500 billion dollars if you go to stationary batteries.
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如果使用固定电池, 可能还需要 5000 亿美元。
06:22
I want to tell you another story that involves policy,
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我想谈谈 另外一个关于政策,
06:25
but importantly, plans.
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确切来说是关于计划的例子。
06:27
Now, Shenzhen is a city of 15 million people,
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中国的深圳是一个有着 1500 万人口的城市,
06:30
an innovative city, in China.
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是中国的一个创新型城市。
06:32
And they decided that they were going to move to electric buses.
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他们已经决定 全面部署电动公交车。
06:36
And so they required all buses be electric.
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所以他们要求把所有的公交车 都该换成电力驱动,
06:38
In fact, they required parking spots have chargers associated with them.
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甚至还要求所有停车位 都要配备充电站。
06:42
So today, Shenzhen has 18,000 electric buses.
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现在深圳共 有 18000 辆电动公交车
06:46
It has 21,000 electric taxis.
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和 21000 辆电动出租车。
06:49
And this goodness didn't just happen.
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这不是一朝一夕就能实现的,
06:52
It was the result of a thoughtful, written, five-year plan
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而是需要一个耗时五年的, 脚踏实地的详细计划,
06:56
that isn't just a kind of campaign promise.
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绝非空口承诺。
06:59
Executing against these plans is how mayors get promoted, or fired.
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如何实施好这个计划 是跟市长的仕途绑定的。
07:02
And so it's really deadly serious.
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所以他们非常重视这一承诺。
07:05
It has to do with carbon, and it has to do with health, with jobs,
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这关系到碳排放, 关系到公众健康、就业
07:08
and with overall economic strength.
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和整体的经济实力。
07:10
The bottom line is that China today has 420,000 electric buses.
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要知道,全中国目前 总共有 42 万辆电动公交车,
07:16
America has less than 1,000.
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而美国只有不到 1000 辆。
07:19
So what other national projects are there that you'd like to see?
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那么,还有哪些 你期待看到的国家级项目?
07:22
HH: So this is a global effort,
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哈尔·哈维: 这是一项全球性的努力,
07:24
but not everybody's going to do the same thing,
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但并不是每个人都会 采取相同的行动,
07:26
or should do the same thing.
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或者应该采取相同的行动。
07:27
Let me start with Norway.
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我想从挪威开始。
07:29
A country that happens to be brilliant at offshore oil,
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这是一个在海上石油领域 表现出色的国家,
07:32
but also understands the consequences of burning more oil.
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但也了解燃烧更多石油的后果。
07:34
They realized they could deploy their skills
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他们意识到可以
07:36
from their offshore oil development into offshore wind.
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将自己的技能从海上石油开发 转移到海上风电开发。
07:40
It's a big deal to put wind turbines out in the ocean.
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将风力涡轮机部署到海洋中 是一件非同小可的事情。
07:43
The ocean, the winds are much stronger,
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那里的海风要强劲得多,
07:45
and the winds are much more constant, not only stronger.
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而且能量更稳定。
07:48
So it balances the grid beautifully.
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因此,它可以很好地平衡电网。
07:50
But it's really hard to build things in the deep ocean.
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但是在深海中 搭建这些设施难度很高,
07:52
Norway's good at it.
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但挪威很擅长做这些事,
07:53
So let them take that on.
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所以不如就让他们放手一试。
07:55
JD: Are they taking it on?
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约翰·杜尔: 他们已经采取行动了吗?
07:56
HH: They are actually.
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哈尔·哈维: 是的。
07:57
Yeah. It's pretty brilliant.
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这是个非常不错的主意。
07:58
Another example: India.
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另一个例子:印度。
08:00
There are hundreds of millions of people in India
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印度有数亿人口
08:02
that don’t have access to electricity.
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生活在没有电的环境中。
08:04
With the advances in solar and advances in batteries,
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随着太阳能和电池技术的发展,
他们没有理由
08:07
there's no reason they have to build the grid
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为那些没有电网的村庄建造电网。
08:09
to all those villages that don't have a grid.
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他们可以跳过化石燃料这一步,
08:11
Skip the steps.
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08:12
Skip the dirty steps. Leapfrog to clean.
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直接投资清洁能源。
08:15
But this all comes together, in my opinion, in the realm of policy.
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但是,在我看来,这一切 在政策领域都是彼此交织的。
08:18
We need dramatic accelerants, is what you're saying.
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你的意思是, 我们需要大幅加速
08:21
Accelerants in R and D, but also accelerants in deployment.
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相关技术的研发和部署。
部署是一种创新, 因为部署会降低价格。
08:24
Deployment is innovation because deployment drives prices down.
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08:27
The right policy can turn things around,
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正确的政策能改变局势。
08:30
and we've seen it happen already in the electricity sector.
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我们在能源领域已经 见证过类似的改变。
08:33
So electricity regulators have asked for ever cleaner sources of electricity:
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能源监管机构一直以来 都在提出同样的要求:
08:37
more renewables, less coal, less natural gas.
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更清洁的能源,多用可再生能源, 少用煤炭和天然气。
08:40
And it's working.
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这确实起到了一些效果,
08:41
It's working pretty brilliantly, actually.
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应该说效果还相当不错。
08:43
But it's not enough.
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但这还远远不够。
08:45
So the German government recognized the possibility
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德国政府已经认识到了
08:47
of driving down the price of clean energy.
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降低绿色能源价格的可能性。
08:49
And so they put in orders on the books.
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于是他们制定了新的政策,
08:51
They agreed to pay an extra price for early phases of solar energy,
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同意对太阳能领域的 早期研发进行更多投资,
08:54
presuming the price would drop.
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并预测绿色能源的价格 会持续降低。
08:56
They created the demand signal using policy.
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他们利用政策创造了“需求信号”。
08:59
The Chinese created a supply signal, also using policy.
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中国人也利用政策 创造了供应信号。
09:02
They decided that solar was a strategic part of their future economy.
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他们判断,太阳能将会是他们未来 经济发展的一个战略组成部分。
09:06
So you had this unwritten agreement between the two countries,
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所以现在这两个国家形成了 一个非书面协议,
一个负责大量采购, 一个负责大量生产,
09:09
one buying a lot, the other producing a lot,
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从而将价格降低了 80%。
09:11
that helped drive the price down 80 percent.
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09:13
We should be doing that with 10 technologies, or a dozen,
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我们应该在世界范围内 通过多种技术
09:16
around the world.
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来实现这个目标。
09:17
We need policy as the magic sauce
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我们需要把类似的政策
09:19
to go through those four sectors in the biggest countries,
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应用到 20 个碳排放最多的国家, 甚至是所有国家的
09:23
in all countries.
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这四个领域。
09:24
And one of the things that animates me
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其中最鼓舞人心的 一个方面就是,
09:27
is that this requires people who are concerned about climate change,
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这需要所有关注气候变化的人—— 应该是每一个人——
09:30
which should be everybody,
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都能参与其中。
09:32
those folks have to apply their energies on the policies that matter
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我们必须把精力集中在 那些对重要的决策者来说
09:36
with the decision-makers who matter.
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很关键的政策上。
09:38
If you don't know who the decision-maker is
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如果你不知道
谁在制定电网脱碳的相关政策,
09:40
to decarbonize the grid,
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09:41
or to produce electric vehicles in the policy world,
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或者谁正在紧跟政策 生产电动汽车,
09:44
you're really not in the game.
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那你就还远远没有参与进来。
09:46
JD: Hal, you're an expert in policy.
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约翰·杜尔: 哈尔,你是政策方面的专家。
09:48
I know this because I've read your book --
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我知道这一点 是因为我读了你的书——
09:50
HH: Thanks, John.
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哈尔·哈维: 谢谢,约翰。
09:51
JD: Designing Climate Solutions.
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约翰·杜尔: 《设计气候解决方案》。
09:53
What makes for good policy?
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是什么决定了一个政策的好坏?
09:55
HH: There are some secrets here,
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哈尔·哈维: 这里有一些诀窍,
如果我们想解决气候变化问题, 掌握这些诀窍确实很重要。
09:57
and they're really important if we want to solve climate change.
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我来举两个例子。
10:00
Let me give you two of the secrets.
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10:01
First, you have to go where the tons are.
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首先,必须监控所有的碳排放。
10:03
JD: Follow the tons.
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约翰·杜尔:追踪碳足迹。
10:04
HH: Follow the tons.
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哈尔·哈维: 没错,追踪碳足迹。
10:05
And this is such an obvious idea,
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这是显而易见的,
但令人惊讶的是,很多政策 都只是在边缘徘徊,试探。
10:07
but it's amazing how many policies tinker around the edges.
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10:10
I call it green paint.
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我称之为“绿漆”。
10:11
We don't need green paint. We need green substance.
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我们不需要“绿色涂料”, 我们需要“绿色材料”。
10:13
The second thing is when you set a policy, insist on continuous improvement.
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第二点,当你制定政策时, 要坚持持续性的改进。
10:19
So what does that mean?
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那是什么意思呢?
10:20
Back in 1978, Jerry Brown was the youngest governor in California's history,
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1978 年,杰里·布朗(Jerry Brown) 是加利福尼亚州历史上最年轻的州长,
10:24
and he implemented a thermal building code,
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他推行了一套热建筑法规,
10:26
which means when you build a building, it has to have insulation in it.
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也就是说,新建筑必须带有隔热层。
10:29
Pretty simple idea.
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这是一个很简单的想法。
10:30
But he put a trick into that law.
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但是他在那条法律上 玩了个把戏。
10:32
He said every three years, the code gets tighter, and tighter, and tighter.
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他说,每三年,这套规范 都要变得越来越严格。
10:36
And how do you know how much tighter?
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但你怎么知道比之前严格了多少?
10:38
Anything that pays for itself in energy savings gets thrown into the code.
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任何节能源的项目 都会被纳入这套规范之中。
10:42
So in the intervening years, we got better insulation,
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因此,在随后的几年中, 我们的建筑具备了更好的隔热性,
10:45
better windows, better furnaces,
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安装了更好的 隔热窗和供热系统,
10:47
better roofing.
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屋顶的质量也更好。
10:49
Today, a new California building
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如今,在加利福尼亚州,
10:50
uses 80 percent less energy than a pre-code building.
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一栋新建筑物的能耗比在这套规范 实施前修建的建筑物低 80%。
10:54
And Jerry Brown used his legislative bandwidth once to draft that policy
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所以杰里·布朗利用他的立法权
10:59
that produces fruits forever.
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起草了一项能够产生 永久效果的政策。
11:01
JD: He got the words right.
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约翰·杜尔: 他制定了合理的政策。
11:02
HH: He got the words right. Continuous improvement.
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哈尔·哈维: 是的,持续性的改进。
11:05
There's a counterexample, which should be instructive as well.
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再举一个比较有启发性的反例。
11:08
So you and I are both of an age where we remember the first oil embargo
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我们都还记得
第一次石油禁运和能源危机
11:11
and the energy crisis that caused
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11:13
with stagnation and inflation at the same time.
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同时导致了经济停滞和通货膨胀。
11:16
Gerald Ford was president.
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当时的美国总统 是杰拉尔德·福特。
11:17
And he realized that if we could double the fuel efficiency of new vehicles,
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他意识到,如果我们可以 将新车的燃油效率提高一倍,
11:21
we could cut in half their energy use.
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就可以减少一半的能源消耗。
11:23
So he signed a law to double the fuel efficiency
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因此他签署了一项法律, 要求把在美国销售的新车的
11:26
of new vehicles sold in America,
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燃油效率提高一倍,
11:27
from 13 miles per gallon, absolutely pathetic,
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从每加仑 13 英里—— 这是个很低的数字——
11:30
to 26 miles per gallon.
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增加到每加仑 26 英里。
11:31
JD: That's big.
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约翰·杜尔:提高幅度很大。
11:32
HH: It’s pathetic by today’s standards, but it was a big deal then, right?
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哈尔·哈维:按今天的标准来看不算什么, 但放在当时算是一个巨大的飞跃。
翻了一番。
11:36
It was doubling.
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但是通过制定一个数字目标, 我们创造了一个 25 年的稳定期。
11:37
But by setting a number as the goal, we created a 25-year plateau.
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11:43
So imagine if instead he said
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可以想象一下,如果他说
11:45
fuel efficiency will increase at four percent a year forever.
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燃料效率将每年以 4% 的速度 持续增长会是什么效果。
11:49
JD: So Hal, goals are great things.
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约翰·杜尔: 哈尔,目标的确很重要。
11:52
How do you find the policymakers that set these goals?
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你是如何找到 制定这些目标的决策者的?
11:56
And then how do you influence them?
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又是如何影响他们的呢?
11:58
HH: Well, so that's maybe the most important question of all.
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哈尔·哈维: 这可能是最重要的一个问题。
12:01
If we have a lot of concern about climate change,
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如果我们对气候变化 有深深的忧虑,
12:04
and not it's properly aimed, it just dissipates.
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却又没有针对这个问题制定政策, 那么问题就不会得到解决。
12:07
It's a one-day headline about a march.
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喊口号的效果只能是昙花一现,
12:09
And that's not going to get the job done.
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起不到任何实际的效果。
12:11
In every sector, in every country, there’s a decision-maker.
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在每个领域,每个国家 和地区都有决策者,
12:16
And it’s usually not the senator or the president.
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并且通常不是参议员或总统,
12:18
It’s usually an air quality regulator or a public utilities commissioner.
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而是空气质量管理者 或公共事业专员。
12:22
These are the people
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这些人掌握着
12:23
that have the secret knobs on the energy of the economy.
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经济能源的秘密控制权。
12:26
They're the ones that get to decide whether we get cleaner and cleaner energy,
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他们决定了我们是否 获得越来越清洁的能源,
越来越节能的建筑,
12:30
more and more efficient buildings, more and more efficient cars,
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越来越高效的汽车,等等。
12:33
and so forth.
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约翰·杜尔:在美国这样的经济体中, 这样的人有多少?
12:34
JD: How many of these people are there in an economy like the US?
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12:38
HH: Electric utilities are monopolies,
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哈尔·哈维: 电力行业是垄断企业,
12:40
and so they're regulated by utilities commissions.
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受到公用事业委员会的监管,
12:42
Otherwise they'd jack up the price too high.
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防止他们擅自抬高价格。
12:44
Every state has a utilities commission, a public utilities commission.
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每个州都有一个公用事业委员会,
12:48
These commissions typically have five members.
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通常有五个成员。
12:51
So that’s about 250 people in America who control the future of our grid.
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所以在美国,大约有250 个人 控制着我们电网的未来。
12:56
None of them's a senator. None of them's a governor.
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他们都不是参议员, 也都不是州长。
他们的职位是被指定的。
12:59
They're appointed positions.
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13:00
JD: How much carbon do they control?
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约翰·杜尔: 他们控制着多少碳排放?
哈尔·哈维: 经济体系中 40% 的碳排放。
13:02
HH: 40 percent of the carbon in the economy.
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约翰·杜尔: 哇,只有 250 个人。
13:04
JD: Wow. 250 people.
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13:05
HH: 250 individuals.
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哈尔·哈维: 没错。
13:07
Now, you can narrow that down even more.
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你也可以进一步缩小范围,
13:09
So let's go for the 30 biggest states. Because this is all about tons, right?
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聚焦在 30 个最大的州。 因为我们在讨论排放量的,对吧?
13:12
JD: Yeah.
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约翰·杜尔: 是的。
13:13
HH: You're now down to 150 individuals.
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哈尔·哈维: 你现在只有 150 个人。
13:15
And if you're content to win votes on a three to two basis,
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如果你满足于 以 3 比 2 的票数赢得选票,
13:18
you're down to 90 individuals who control almost half the carbon in the economy.
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那么控制经济体中 90% 碳排放的只有 90 个人。
13:24
How do you make sure those 90 people vote for a clean energy grid?
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那么你如何确保这 90 个人 投票支持清洁能源电网?
13:28
They have a quasi-judicial process.
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他们有一个准司法程序。
13:32
They hold hearings.
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他们会举行听证会,
13:33
They take evidence.
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取证,
13:35
They consider what they're allowed to do within their statutory framework.
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考虑在法定框架内 哪些事情是被允许的,
13:40
And then they make a decision.
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然后再做出决定。
13:41
They have to look at human health, at economics, at reliability.
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他们必须考虑人类健康、 经济和可靠性,
13:44
And they have to look at greenhouse gases.
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还必须研究温室气体。
13:47
JD: Is there a breakthrough you’d like to see
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约翰·杜尔: 有没有你希望看到的突破,
13:49
or an innovation you’re particularly excited about?
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或者让你感到特别兴奋的创新?
13:52
HH: I'm keen on green hydrogen.
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哈尔·哈维: 我对绿色氢能源很感兴趣。
13:55
I mean, we need to drive down the cost of electrolysis,
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我们需要降低电解的成本,
13:57
and it's always going to be more expensive than just pure electricity.
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电解总是比纯电能的成本要高。
这是背后的热力学特性决定的。
14:01
That's a thermodynamic certainty.
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14:03
But once you have hydrogen,
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但是一旦有了氢,
14:05
you can reform it with other chemicals into liquid fuels,
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你就可以结合其他化学物质, 把它改造成液体燃料,
14:09
like synthetic diesel for airplanes or long haul trucks or ships.
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例如飞机、长途卡车 或轮船使用的合成柴油。
14:13
You can use it to make fertilizers.
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你可以用它来制造肥料。
14:16
And we can rethink the basics of chemistry.
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我们可以重新思考化学的基础。
14:18
Chemistry's built on hydrocarbons,
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化学是建立在碳氢化合物上的,
14:20
and we need to build it on carbohydrates instead.
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而我们需要将其建立在 碳水化合物上。
14:23
So different kinds of molecules, but it’s not impossible.
320
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分子种类完全不同, 但也并非不可能实现。
14:26
I guess the other thing that’s fascinating to me
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让我非常感兴趣的
14:28
is this term "stranded investment."
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还有“投资搁浅”这个词。
14:32
So if you own a coal-fired power plant or a coal mine today,
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如果你今天在世界上任何一个地方 拥有燃煤发电厂或煤矿,
14:35
anywhere in the world almost, you have stranded your money.
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那么你的钱就被套牢了,
14:38
You can't get it back.
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这些钱是拿不回来的。
14:39
Because they're uneconomic.
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因为它们不具备经济效益。
14:41
We analyzed every coal plant in America, the economics of every one,
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我们分析了美国 每一家煤电厂的经济效益状况,
14:44
and 75 percent of them, it's cheaper to shut them down
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其中的 75% 可以被关闭,
14:47
and replace them with a brand new wind or solar farm
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或者用一个全新的风能 或太阳能发电厂取代,
14:50
than just pay the operating costs of that coal plant.
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而这样做的成本反而要低于 该煤电厂的运营成本。
14:53
So what's going to get stranded next?
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那么接下来会发生什么呢?
14:55
This is an important question.
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这是一个很重要的问题。
14:57
I think natural gas is next.
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我认为下一个会导致 投资搁浅的领域是天然气,
14:58
It's already skidding along at low prices.
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它的价格一直在不断走低。
15:02
I think people who are putting a lot of money into gas fields right now,
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我认为,现在 在气田或燃气涡轮机上
15:06
or gas turbines right now, are going to rue the day.
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投入大量资金的人, 正在一条错误的道路上前进。
15:08
John, what are some of the innovations or breakthroughs
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约翰,那么你特别感兴趣的
是哪些创新或突破呢?
15:11
that you’re especially excited about?
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约翰·杜尔:我的朋友阿尔·戈尔(Al Gore) 取得了一个惊人的进展,
15:13
JD: Well, one exciting development comes from my friend and hero Al Gore,
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15:17
who has the vision and is working with entrepreneurs,
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他很有远见,胆识过人, 并且正在与企业家合作,
15:19
that by integrating data can produce,
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通过整合数据,
15:24
for every place on the planet,
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为地球上的各个角落
15:26
a new real-time estimate of what their carbon emissions are.
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提供有关其碳排放量的 最新的实时评估数据。
15:31
You know, I come from the school of measuring what matters.
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你也知道,我的背景 就是进行各种评估。
15:34
HH: Yes you do.
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哈尔·哈维: 没错。
15:35
JD: If we had a real-time kind of Google Earth,
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约翰·杜尔:如果我们有 一套实时的谷歌地球软件,
15:38
where we could zoom in to individual factories, or oil fields,
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可以放大到各个工厂、
15:43
or Walmart stores,
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油田或者沃尔玛分店,
15:45
I think that could really change the game.
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那么我认为这确实 可以改变游戏规则。
15:48
I'm also a believer in carbon accounting.
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我也十分笃信“碳核算”这一概念。
15:51
And so I've seen entrepreneurs who are making systems
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我知道一些企业家 正在开发一种系统,
15:55
that will allow not just the owners
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除了所有者,
15:58
but all the employees of an enterprise or organization
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也允许企业或组织的
16:02
to see what's in their carbon supply chain.
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所有员工查看 其碳供应链中的信息。
16:05
HH: Yup. Yup.
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哈尔·哈维: 是的,没错。
16:06
JD: I'd love to see legislation
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约翰·杜尔: 我很乐意看到
16:08
that required the OMB score every piece of legislation
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要求美国行政管理和预算局(OMB) 为每一项政策的碳影响
打分的立法。
16:13
for its carbon impact.
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16:14
HH: Yes.
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哈尔·哈维: 是的。
16:15
JD: If we're serious about this, we're going to measure what matters,
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约翰·杜尔: 如果我们认真对待这一点,
16:18
measure what really matters.
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就可以衡量 最重要的那些指标。
哈尔·哈维: 是的。
16:20
HH: Yup. Yup.
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约翰·杜尔:那么我们来谈谈 巴黎和《巴黎协定》,
16:21
JD: So let's talk about Paris and the Paris Accord
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16:23
because some people say that some nations are ahead of their plans,
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因为有人说, 有些国家的碳预算已经超支了,
16:28
but others are not,
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而另一些国家还没有,
16:29
and that the agenda is not aggressive enough.
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而且具体议程的 约束力度还不够,
16:33
It’s not going to get us where we need to go.
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并不会帮助我们实现目的。
16:36
What is your view of the Paris Accords?
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你对《巴黎协定》怎么看?
16:39
HH: The Paris Accords are quite interesting animals.
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哈尔·哈维: 《巴黎协定》是个很有意思的东西。
16:42
It’s not a national commitment and it’s not an international commitment.
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它们既不是一项国家承诺, 也不是一项国际承诺。
16:47
JD: They're not binding.
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约翰·杜尔: 没有约束力。
16:48
HH: They're not binding.
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哈尔·哈维: 是的,
16:49
They're individually determined national contributions.
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它们是各个国家 自行定下的承诺。
16:53
That’s the term of art that they use in the Paris Accord.
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这就是他们在《巴黎协定》中 使用的术语。
16:55
JD: So what does that mean?
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约翰·杜尔: 那是什么意思呢?
16:57
HH: So that means Europe says:
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哈尔·哈维: 意思就是,欧洲说:
16:58
We're going to do 40 percent less carbon in 2030
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例如,到 2030 年, 我们的碳排放量将比
17:02
than we did in 1990, for example.
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1990 年减少 40%。
17:05
If they fail to hit that number, there’s no consequences.
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如果他们没有达到这个数字, 并不需要承担任何后果。
17:09
If they go past that number, there’s no consequences.
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如果他们超过了这个数字, 也不会有任何后果。
17:12
That, however, does that mean the Paris Accords are not important.
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但是,那就意味着 《巴黎协定》无足轻重吗?
17:15
They're really important.
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不,它们非常重要。
17:16
Because they set up, I would call it,
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因为它们催生了 一个我称之为向上竞争,
17:18
a race to the top instead of a race to the bottom.
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而不是向下竞争的局面。
17:20
They set up a dynamic where people were sort of bidding to do better and better.
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它们打造了一个动态的环境, 让人们通过互相竞争来改善环境,
17:24
They created transparency in how people are doing
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并在碳排放量方面
17:27
in terms of their carbon emissions.
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创造了透明度。
17:29
And there are some countries that take these commitments very seriously,
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有些国家非常重视这些承诺,
17:33
and including the European Union and China on that list.
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其中就包括欧盟和中国。
17:36
JD: So I'm going to push on this, and what we really need
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约翰·杜尔:那么往前一步说, 我们真正需要的——
17:39
HH: Yup.
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哈尔·哈维: 是的。
17:40
is we need a plan.
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约翰·杜尔: 是一个计划。
17:42
HH: So elaborate.
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哈尔·哈维: 一个详细的计划。
17:44
JD: Well, I think what we have today are goals, not a plan.
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约翰·杜尔:我认为我们今天 所拥有的只有目标,而不是计划。
17:48
And I think a plan
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我认为计划
17:50
would be a set of 20 focused precision policy efforts,
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应该是大概 20 项 有针对性的制定精准政策的工作,
17:56
each of whom's targeted at the right decision-maker or makers,
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每项工作都是针对 这 20 个最大的国家和地区的
18:00
in the right venues, for these 20 largest nations,
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四个经济领域中
18:04
in the four sectors of their economy.
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2220
对应的决策者。
18:06
And these precision campaigns would be well-funded,
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这些精准的工作 将获得充足的资金,
18:10
they'd be well-focused,
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目标明确,
18:11
they'd have an awesome founder/CEO/leader,
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拥有一位了不起的创始人、 首席执行官,或者领导者,
18:14
an amazing staff of people,
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一个出色的团队,
18:16
an accountable set of objectives and key results,
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一套可问责的目标和关键结果,
18:19
and be on a timeline.
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并且要按时完成。
18:20
We would measure their progress, quarter by quarter.
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我们可以按季度衡量他们的进度。
18:23
That would give me hope that we'll get where we need to go by 2030.
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这样就能让我相信,到 2030 年, 我们有希望达到既定目标。
18:27
How about you?
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你怎么想?
18:29
HH: Let me add on a couple of characteristics
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3280
哈尔·哈维: 我想在你的基础上
18:32
to exactly what you just said.
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补充几点。
18:34
And that is you need to have a deep understanding
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那就是,你需要 深入了解决策者是谁,
18:36
of who the decision-maker is, ideally by person, certainly by position,
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4340
是哪些人,他们的职位是什么,
18:40
and understand exactly what motivates them or hinders them in making this decision
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以及究竟是什么因素 促使或阻碍他们做出这项决策,
18:45
so that you can put all your forces on the decision-maker at point of decision.
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这样一来,你就可以把所有精力 集中在某个决策点的决策者身上。
18:49
It's one thing to have a general concern about the environment or about climate.
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对环境或气候的普遍关心是一回事,
18:54
It's quite another to focus that concern
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而将关注点放在关于这颗星球的
18:56
on the most important decisions on the planet.
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最重要决策上是另一回事。
18:59
And that's what we need to do.
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这就是我们需要做的。
19:00
I love this idea.
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1174
我很喜欢这个主意。
19:01
JD: Okay, so focus on the decision-makers.
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2917
约翰·杜尔: 好的,所以要专注于决策者。
19:04
I think there's other individual action that we can and must take.
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我认为我们还能够, 而且必须采取其他个人行动。
19:07
We've got to amplify your voice
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我们必须放大你的声音,
19:11
so that you organize, activate, proselytize, your company,
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这样你就可以组织起来,调动起来, 并且改变人们的信仰;
19:15
your neighbors, youth, I think are an incredibly powerful voice,
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你的公司、邻居, 年轻人和朋友们,
19:20
and friends.
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都是一种非常有力的声音。
19:21
HH: Yup.
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1000
哈尔·哈维: 没错。
19:22
JD: You need to vote.
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1015
约翰· 杜尔: 你需要投票。
19:23
HH: Yup.
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1015
哈尔·哈维: 是的。
19:24
JD: You need to vote like your life depends on it.
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约翰·杜尔:这张选票 与你的生命息息相关。
19:27
So Hal, what does this all add up to?
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那么哈尔, 我们来总结一下吧。
19:30
What's the takeaway?
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1933
你要传达给世界的信息是什么?
19:32
HH: I'm an optimist, John. I've seen this possible.
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2633
哈尔·哈维:我是个乐观主义者, 我之前已经见证过了奇迹。
19:35
I've seen when nations decide to do great things,
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见证过不同的国家在下定决心后
19:37
they can do great things.
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都实现了伟大的目标。
19:39
Think of America’s rural electrification or the interstate highway system we built.
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可以想一想美国的乡村电气化, 或者是我们的州际高速公路。
19:43
Those are huge projects that transformed the country.
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2541
这些都是改变了 国家面貌的伟大工程。
19:45
What we did prepping for World War II: we built 300,000 airplanes in four years.
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甚至在备战二战的那段时期, 我们在四年里建造了 30 万架飞机。
19:51
So if we decide to do something,
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所以如果我们决定要做一件事,
19:53
or when the Germans or the Chinese or the Indians decide to do something,
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无论是德国、中国、印度, 或任何其他国度,
19:57
other countries,
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1000
如果决定要实现一个目标,
19:58
they can get it done.
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他们就一定能实现。
19:59
But if this is sort of piffling around the edges,
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但是如果只是空口承诺, 却没有配备任何实际行动,
20:02
we won't get there.
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我们什么都改变不了。
20:04
What do you think? Are you optimistic?
444
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1836
你觉得呢? 你对前景是否乐观?
20:06
JD: My take on this is, I may not be optimistic, but I'm hopeful.
445
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4730
约翰·杜尔:我对此 并不是很乐观,但还是心怀希望。
20:10
I really think the crucial question is: Can we do what we must,
446
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我觉得最重要的问题是, 我们到底能否完成必须要做的事情,
20:15
at speed and at scale?
447
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而且速度够快,规模够大?
20:18
The good news is, it's now clearly cheaper to save the planet than to ruin it.
448
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4853
好在,拯救地球 比毁掉地球的代价要小得多,
20:23
The bad news is, we are fast running out of time.
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然而可惜的是, 我们没多少时间了。
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