How to decarbonize the grid and electrify everything | John Doerr and Hal Harvey

136,277 views ・ 2020-11-19

TED


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00:00
Transcriber: TED Translators Admin Reviewer: Rhonda Jacobs
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譯者: Lilian Chiu 審譯者: Amanda Zhu
00:13
John Doerr: Hello, Hal!
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約翰杜爾:哈囉,哈爾!
00:14
Hal Harvey: John, nice to see you.
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哈爾哈維:約翰,很高興見到你。
00:16
JD: Nice to see you too.
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約:我也很高興見到你。
00:17
HH: So John, we've got a big challenge.
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哈:約翰,我們有個大挑戰。
00:20
We need to get carbon out of the atmosphere.
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我們得減少大氣中的碳。
00:22
We need to stop emitting carbon,
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我們得要阻止碳排放, 在 2050 年時把排放量降為零。
00:24
drive it to zero by 2050.
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00:26
And we need to be halfway there by 2030.
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到 2030 年時必須要完成一半。
00:28
Where are we now?
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我們目前的進度如何?
00:30
JD: As you know, we're dumping 55 billion tons
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約:你也知道,每年 我們會將 550 億公噸的碳污染
00:33
of carbon pollution in our precious atmosphere every year,
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傾注到我們珍貴的大氣中,
00:37
as if it's some kind of free and open sewer.
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好像大氣是種免費的 開放式下水道一樣。
00:40
To get halfway to zero by 2030,
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若要在 2030 年達成目標的一半,
00:43
we're going to have to reduce annual emissions
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我們每年的年排放量
00:45
by about 10 percent a year.
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都必須減少大約 10%。
00:47
And we've never reduced annual emissions in any year
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反觀地球歷史,
我們的年排放量 從來沒有比前一年減少過。
00:51
in the history of the planet.
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00:52
So let's break this down.
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我們來分析一下。
00:54
Seventy-five percent of the emissions
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碳排放中有 75%
00:56
come from the 20 largest emitting countries.
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來自排名前 20 的最大排放國,
00:59
And from four sectors of their economy.
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排放源是他們經濟體中的四大活動:
01:02
The first is grid.
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第一、電力。
01:03
Second, transportation.
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第二、交通。
01:05
The third from the buildings.
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第三、建築物。
01:07
And the fourth from industrial activities.
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第四、工業活動。
01:09
We've got to fix all those, at speed and at scale.
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我們得要大規模、快速地 解決這些排放源的問題。
01:14
HH: We do.
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哈:的確。
01:15
And matters are in some ways worse than we think and some ways better.
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有些問題比我們所想的更糟, 有些則比較好。
01:18
Let me start with the worse.
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讓我從比較糟的談起。
01:19
Climate change is a wicked problem.
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氣候變遷是個詭譎的問題。
01:21
And what do I mean by wicked problem?
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詭譎的問題是什麼意思?
01:23
It means it's a problem that transcends geographic boundaries.
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意思就是這個問題超越了地理界線。
01:26
The sources are everywhere, and the impacts are everywhere.
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源頭無所不在,影響也無所不在。
01:29
Although obviously some nations have contributed much more than others.
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雖然有些國家的排放 明顯比其他國家多很多。
更實在地說,氣候變遷很糟糕的一點
01:32
In fact, one of the terrible things about climate change
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01:35
is those who contributed least to it will be hurt the most.
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就是排放最少的國家 受到傷害反而最大。
氣候變遷是製造不平等的巨大機器。
01:38
It's a great inequity machine.
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01:40
So here we have a problem that you cannot solve
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所以,我們手上有個在任何單一國家內
01:43
within the national boundaries of one country,
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無法解決的問題,
01:46
and yet international institutions are notoriously weak.
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但國際性機構又很弱。
01:49
So that's part of the wicked problem.
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所以那是問題很詭譎的一個地方。
01:51
The second element of the wicked problem is it transcends normal timescales.
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詭譎問題的第二個元素,
就是它超越了正常的時程。
01:56
We're used to news day by day,
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我們習慣的是每天有不同的新聞事件、
01:59
or quarterly reports for business enterprises,
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企業有季報,
02:03
or an election cycle -- that's about the longest we think anymore of.
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或選舉有一定的循環—— 這可能是時程最長的了。
而氣候變遷是永遠存在的;
02:07
Climate change essentially lasts forever.
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二氧化碳排放到大氣之後,
02:09
When you put carbon dioxide into the atmosphere,
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它會一直在那裡,也一直會造成衝擊,
02:11
it's there, or its impacts are there, for 1,000 years.
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而且會持續一千年。
02:14
It's a gift we keep on giving for our children, our grandchildren
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我們不斷將這份「禮物」 給予我們的子孫,
02:18
and dozens and dozens of generations beyond there.
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以及之後的幾十代。
02:20
JD: It sounds like a tax we keep on paying.
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約:聽起來像是永遠付不完的稅。
02:22
HH: Yeah, it is. It is.
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哈:是的,沒錯。 犯一次錯,永遠要付出代價。
02:23
You sin once, you pay forever.
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02:26
And then the third element of it being a wicked problem
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接著,這個詭譎問題的第三個元素
02:29
is that carbon dioxide is embedded in every aspect of our industrial economy.
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就是我們工業經濟的每個面向 都會排放二氧化碳。
02:34
Every car, and every truck, and every airplane, and every house,
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每台汽車、每台卡車、 每架飛機、每間房子、
02:37
and every electrical socket, and every industrial processes
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每個插座、每個工業流程,
02:40
now emits carbon dioxide.
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現在都在排放二氧化碳。
02:42
JD: So what's the recipe?
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約:那怎麼著手?
02:44
HH: Well, here's the shortcut.
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哈:有條捷徑。
02:45
If you decarbonize the grid, the electrical grid,
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如果我們將電網脫碳,
02:48
and then run everything on electricity --
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再讓所有東西都靠電力運作,
02:50
decarbonize the grid and electrify everything --
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將電網脫碳,再把一切電氣化——
02:53
if you do those two things, you have a zero carbon economy.
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如果做到這兩點,就能達成零碳經濟。
02:56
Now, that would seem like a pipe dream just a few years ago
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幾年前,這還只是空想,
因為建造零碳電網非常昂貴。
02:59
because it was expensive to create a zero-carbon grid.
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03:01
But the prices of solar and wind have plummeted.
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但太陽能和風力的價格已經大幅下跌。
03:04
Solar's now the cheapest form of electricity on planet earth
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現在太陽能是地球上 最便宜的電力形式,
03:06
and wind is second.
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風力排名第二。
03:08
It means now that you can convert the grid to zero-carbon rapidly
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那就表示,現在可以 快速把電網轉換成零碳,
03:12
and save consumers money along the way.
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順便幫消費者省錢。
03:14
So there's leverage.
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這是有優勢的。
03:15
JD: Well, I think a key question, Hal, is do we have the technology that we need
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約:哈爾,我認為關鍵問題在於
我們是否擁有必要的技術
03:21
to replace fossil fuels to get this job done?
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來取代化石燃料,然後完成這個目標?
03:24
And my answer is no.
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我的答案是,沒有。
03:25
I think we're about 70, maybe 80 percent of the way there.
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我認為我們大概只做到了七、八成。
03:29
For example, we urgently need a breakthrough in batteries.
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比如,我們迫切需要 在電池上有所突破。
03:33
Our batteries need to be higher energy density.
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我們的電池必須有更高的能源密度。
03:35
They need to have enhanced safety, faster charging.
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電池的安全性要強化,充電要更快。
03:38
They need to take less space and less weight,
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電池的體積和重量都要減少,
03:41
and above all else, they need to cost a lot less.
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最重要的是,成本必須下降很多。
03:43
In fact, we need new chemistries that don't rely on scarce cobalt.
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事實上,繼續仰賴稀有的鈷不是辦法,
我們需要在化學上創新,
03:48
And we're going to need lots of these batteries.
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且我們會需要很多這樣的電池。
03:51
We desperately need much more research in clean energy technology.
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我們非常需要針對 乾淨能源技術做更多研究。
03:55
The US invests about 2.5 billion dollars a year.
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美國每年投資約 250 億美金。
03:59
Do you know how much Americans spend on potato chips?
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你知道美國人花多少錢 在洋芋片上嗎?
04:02
HH: No.
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哈:不知道。 約:答案是 40 億美金。
04:03
JD: The answer is 4 billion dollars.
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04:05
Now, what do you think of that?
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你有什麼想法?
04:06
HH: Upside down.
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哈:完全反了。
04:08
But let me press a little further
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但,讓我再進一步談談
04:09
on a question that's fascinated me about the Silicon Valley.
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一個讓我著迷的問題,和矽谷有關。
04:12
So the Silicon Valley is governed by Moore's law,
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矽谷的表現符合摩爾定律;
每十八個月,表現就會加倍。
04:15
where performance doubles every 18 months.
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那其實不是定律,是觀察,
04:17
It's not really a law, it's an observation,
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但我們就當它是定律吧。
04:19
but be that as it may.
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04:20
The energy world is governed by much more mundane laws,
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能源世界用的是更世俗的定律,
04:24
the laws of thermodynamics, right?
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熱力學定律,對吧?
04:26
It's physical stuff in the economy.
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那是經濟當中的實體物體:
04:29
Cement, trucks, factories, power plants.
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水泥、卡車、工廠、電廠。
04:32
JD: Atoms, not bits.
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約:原子而不是位元組成的東西。
04:33
HH: Atoms, not bits. Perfect.
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哈:原子,不是位元。說得好。
04:35
And the transformation of big physical things is slower,
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大型實物的生產較慢、
04:38
and the margins are worse, and often the commodities are generic.
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利潤更少,
且通常都是沒有專利的商品。
04:42
How do we stimulate the kind of innovation in those worlds
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在這樣的背景下,
我們要如何刺激創新來拯救地球?
04:46
that we actually need in order to save this planet earth?
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04:50
JD: Well, that's a really great question.
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約:那是個好問題。
04:52
The innovation starts with basic science in research and development.
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創新始於研發的基本科學。
04:55
And the American commitment to that, while advanced on a global sense,
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而美國在這方面的決心
雖然在全球來說是很先進的,
05:02
is still paltry.
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但仍然不足;
05:03
It needs to be 10 times higher
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投入的資金需要比我們每年花費在
05:05
than the, say, 2.5 billion per year that we spend on clean energy R and D.
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乾淨能源研發的 25 億美金再高 10 倍。
05:10
But we need to go beyond R and D as well.
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但我們要努力的方向 也不只是研發而已,
05:13
There needs to be a kind of development, a kind of pre-commercialization,
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還需要有一種發展,
一種前商品化。
05:19
which in the US is done by a group called ARPA-E.
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在美國是由一個叫做 「ARPA-E」的團體在做。
05:23
Then there's the matter of forming new companies.
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接著,還要成立新公司。
05:26
HH: Yes.
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哈:嗯。
05:27
JD: And I think entrepreneurial energy is shifting back into that field.
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約:我認為,
創業能量都轉向,回到那個領域了。
05:32
It's clear that it takes longer and more capital,
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很顯然,這要花較長的時間 和較多的資本,
05:35
but you can build a really substantial and valuable enterprise or company.
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但你可以建造一個很實在、
有價值的企業或公司。
05:41
HH: Yes.
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哈:是的。
05:42
JD: Tesla's a prime example. Beyond Meat is another one.
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約:特斯拉就是個好例子, 「超越肉類」公司也是。
05:45
And that's inspiring entrepreneurs globally.
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那能鼓舞全世界的企業家。
05:48
But that's not enough.
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但那還不夠。
05:50
I think you need also a demand signal, in the form of policies and purchases,
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我認為還需要各國用政策和採購
來刺激對這類產品的需求,
05:54
from nations, like Germany did with solar, to go make these markets happen.
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才能維持這樣的市場,
像是德國在太陽能方面的作法。
05:59
And so I'm, at heart, a capitalist.
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我的本質是個資本主義者。
06:02
I think this energy crisis is the mother of all markets.
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我認為這個能源危機
能夠孕育未來所有市場,
06:09
And it will take longer.
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花的時間會比較長。
06:11
But the market for electric vehicle batteries -- 500 billion dollars a year.
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但電動車電池的市場——
每年五千億美金。
06:17
It's probably another 500 billion dollars if you go to stationary batteries.
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如果連靜置電池也算, 可能還有另外五千億美金。
06:22
I want to tell you another story that involves policy,
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我想再說一個故事,它和政策有關,
06:25
but importantly, plans.
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但更重要的是,和計畫有關。
06:27
Now, Shenzhen is a city of 15 million people,
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深圳的人口有一千五百萬人,
06:30
an innovative city, in China.
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它是中國的創新城市。
06:32
And they decided that they were going to move to electric buses.
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他們決定要改用電動巴士。
所以他們要求所有巴士 都必須是電動的。
06:36
And so they required all buses be electric.
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06:38
In fact, they required parking spots have chargers associated with them.
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事實上,他們要求所有 停車位都要有相應的充電座。
06:42
So today, Shenzhen has 18,000 electric buses.
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現今,深圳有一萬八千輛電動巴士。
06:46
It has 21,000 electric taxis.
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有兩萬一千輛電動計程車。
06:49
And this goodness didn't just happen.
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這麼好的事不是自然發生的。
06:52
It was the result of a thoughtful, written, five-year plan
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這樣的成果來自於 一個精心設計撰寫的五年計畫。
06:56
that isn't just a kind of campaign promise.
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它不是用嘴巴說一說的競選承諾;
06:59
Executing against these plans is how mayors get promoted, or fired.
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這些計畫的執行, 悠關市長的升遷或開除,
07:02
And so it's really deadly serious.
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所以確實事關重大。
07:05
It has to do with carbon, and it has to do with health, with jobs,
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這和碳有關,和健康和工作有關,
07:08
and with overall economic strength.
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也和整體經濟力有關。
07:10
The bottom line is that China today has 420,000 electric buses.
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結果就是,現今中國
有 42 萬輛電動巴士。
07:16
America has less than 1,000.
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美國不到一千輛。
07:19
So what other national projects are there that you'd like to see?
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還有什麼樣的國家計畫 是你很樂見的嗎?
07:22
HH: So this is a global effort,
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哈:這要全球一起努力, 但並非人人都會用同樣的做法,
07:24
but not everybody's going to do the same thing,
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07:26
or should do the same thing.
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也不應該用同樣的做法。
07:27
Let me start with Norway.
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讓我從挪威談起。
07:29
A country that happens to be brilliant at offshore oil,
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該國剛好在開採離岸石油方面 有很先進的技術,
07:32
but also understands the consequences of burning more oil.
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但也了解燃燒更多石油的後果。
07:34
They realized they could deploy their skills
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他們知道如何將開採離岸石油的技術
07:36
from their offshore oil development into offshore wind.
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運用於開發離岸風力。
07:40
It's a big deal to put wind turbines out in the ocean.
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將風力發動機放在海上不簡單。
07:43
The ocean, the winds are much stronger,
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在海上,風力會強很多,
07:45
and the winds are much more constant, not only stronger.
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且風力不僅更強,也更持續, 它也就能完美地穩定供電。
07:48
So it balances the grid beautifully.
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07:50
But it's really hard to build things in the deep ocean.
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但這種深海工程十分困難,
07:52
Norway's good at it.
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挪威很擅長,所以就交給他們吧。
07:53
So let them take that on.
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07:55
JD: Are they taking it on?
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約:他們做了嗎? 哈:有。是的,很棒。
07:56
HH: They are actually.
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07:57
Yeah. It's pretty brilliant.
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07:58
Another example: India.
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另一個例子:印度。
08:00
There are hundreds of millions of people in India
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印度有數億人還無法取得電力。
08:02
that don’t have access to electricity.
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08:04
With the advances in solar and advances in batteries,
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隨著太陽能和電池的進展,
他們不需要在沒有電網的 村落設置電網,
08:07
there's no reason they have to build the grid
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08:09
to all those villages that don't have a grid.
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可以跳過那個骯髒的步驟,
08:11
Skip the steps.
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08:12
Skip the dirty steps. Leapfrog to clean.
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直接跳到乾淨能源。
08:15
But this all comes together, in my opinion, in the realm of policy.
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但依我所見,這要用政策來促成。
08:18
We need dramatic accelerants, is what you're saying.
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你剛才的意思是我們需要強大的觸媒,
在研發上的觸媒, 還有普及化的觸媒。
08:21
Accelerants in R and D, but also accelerants in deployment.
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普及是種創新, 因為普及能把價格壓低。
08:24
Deployment is innovation because deployment drives prices down.
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08:27
The right policy can turn things around,
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對的政策能逆轉情勢,
08:30
and we've seen it happen already in the electricity sector.
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且我們已經在電力產業看到。
08:33
So electricity regulators have asked for ever cleaner sources of electricity:
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所以電力的管理者要求 更乾淨的電力來源:
08:37
more renewables, less coal, less natural gas.
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更多再生能源、 較少燃煤、較少天然氣。
08:40
And it's working.
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這是可行的,而且還運作得相當不錯。
08:41
It's working pretty brilliantly, actually.
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08:43
But it's not enough.
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但那並不夠。
08:45
So the German government recognized the possibility
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德國政府知道有可能 將乾淨能源的價格壓低。
08:47
of driving down the price of clean energy.
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08:49
And so they put in orders on the books.
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所以他們先做好採購計畫;
08:51
They agreed to pay an extra price for early phases of solar energy,
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在太陽能發展早期, 他們同意以較高價錢採購,
08:54
presuming the price would drop.
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推測後續價格會下降。
08:56
They created the demand signal using policy.
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他們用政策發出需求訊號。
08:59
The Chinese created a supply signal, also using policy.
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【「我們要買」】
中國也使用政策來發出供給訊號。 【「我們要生產」】
09:02
They decided that solar was a strategic part of their future economy.
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他們認定太陽能是 他們未來經濟策略的一部分。
09:06
So you had this unwritten agreement between the two countries,
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所以這兩國間有不成文的協議,
一方購買很多,另一方生產很多,
09:09
one buying a lot, the other producing a lot,
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這種做法將價格降低八成。
09:11
that helped drive the price down 80 percent.
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09:13
We should be doing that with 10 technologies, or a dozen,
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我們應該把這種做法應用到 全世界至少十幾項技術上。
09:16
around the world.
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09:17
We need policy as the magic sauce
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我們需要政策來引導
09:19
to go through those four sectors in the biggest countries,
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最大國的這四大經濟活動, 甚至推及所有國家。
09:23
in all countries.
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09:24
And one of the things that animates me
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而讓我感到很受鼓舞的其中一點,
09:27
is that this requires people who are concerned about climate change,
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就是這需要關心氣候變遷的人,
09:30
which should be everybody,
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應該也就是所有人,
09:32
those folks have to apply their energies on the policies that matter
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他們必須將他們的精力 用在重要的政策上,
09:36
with the decision-makers who matter.
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影響重要的決策者。
09:38
If you don't know who the decision-maker is
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如果你不知道 電網脫碳的決策者是誰,
09:40
to decarbonize the grid,
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09:41
or to produce electric vehicles in the policy world,
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或在政策圈中生產 電動車的決策者是誰,
09:44
you're really not in the game.
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那你還在狀況外。
09:46
JD: Hal, you're an expert in policy.
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約:哈爾,你是政策專家。
09:48
I know this because I've read your book --
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我知道這一點是因為 我讀過你的書——
09:50
HH: Thanks, John.
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哈:謝謝。 約:《設計氣候解決方案》。
09:51
JD: Designing Climate Solutions.
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怎樣的政策才是好政策?
09:53
What makes for good policy?
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09:55
HH: There are some secrets here,
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哈:若想解決氣候變遷的問題, 那是需要祕訣的,
09:57
and they're really important if we want to solve climate change.
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讓我告訴你兩個祕訣。
10:00
Let me give you two of the secrets.
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10:01
First, you have to go where the tons are.
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第一、到量最多的地方。 約:跟著「量」走。
10:03
JD: Follow the tons.
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10:04
HH: Follow the tons.
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哈:跟著「量」走。 這個想法很明確。
10:05
And this is such an obvious idea,
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但驚人的是,好多政策 都沒有搔到癢處。
10:07
but it's amazing how many policies tinker around the edges.
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我稱之為綠色塗料。
10:10
I call it green paint.
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10:11
We don't need green paint. We need green substance.
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我們不需要綠色外表。 我們需要綠色本質。
10:13
The second thing is when you set a policy, insist on continuous improvement.
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第二、
設定了政策之後, 要有持續的進步的堅持。
10:19
So what does that mean?
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那是什麼意思?
10:20
Back in 1978, Jerry Brown was the youngest governor in California's history,
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1978 年,傑瑞布朗 是加州史上最年輕的州長,
10:24
and he implemented a thermal building code,
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他導入了一種建築保溫規範,
10:26
which means when you build a building, it has to have insulation in it.
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也就是說,蓋房子時, 就必須要有隔熱的設計。
10:29
Pretty simple idea.
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很簡單的想法。
10:30
But he put a trick into that law.
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但他在這條法律上加了點小招數。
10:32
He said every three years, the code gets tighter, and tighter, and tighter.
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他說,每三年,這規定就會更嚴格,
所以會不斷地更嚴格。
10:36
And how do you know how much tighter?
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那會有多嚴格?
10:38
Anything that pays for itself in energy savings gets thrown into the code.
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所有能用節能省下的錢買的耗能設施
都會納入該規定。
10:42
So in the intervening years, we got better insulation,
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所以在幾年間,
我們有更佳的保溫工程、更佳的窗戶、
10:45
better windows, better furnaces,
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更佳的暖爐、更佳的屋頂。
10:47
better roofing.
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10:49
Today, a new California building
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現今,新的加州建築所用的能源
10:50
uses 80 percent less energy than a pre-code building.
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比沒有被規範的舊建築少八成。
10:54
And Jerry Brown used his legislative bandwidth once to draft that policy
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傑瑞布朗運用他在立法上游移的空間 起草了那個政策,
10:59
that produces fruits forever.
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從此加州便一直受益。
11:01
JD: He got the words right.
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約:他做對了。
11:02
HH: He got the words right. Continuous improvement.
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哈:他做對了,持續改善。
有個反例,我們也能從中學習。
11:05
There's a counterexample, which should be instructive as well.
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11:08
So you and I are both of an age where we remember the first oil embargo
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你我這個年齡的人 還記得第一次石油禁運,
11:11
and the energy crisis that caused
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以及因此發生的能源危機 所造成的不景氣和通貨膨脹。
11:13
with stagnation and inflation at the same time.
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11:16
Gerald Ford was president.
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當時的總統傑拉德福特了解到
11:17
And he realized that if we could double the fuel efficiency of new vehicles,
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如果能把新車的燃料效率加倍,
就能把它們的能源用量減半。
11:21
we could cut in half their energy use.
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11:23
So he signed a law to double the fuel efficiency
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所以,他簽署了法律,
要求美國新販售的車輛 要將燃料效率加倍。
11:26
of new vehicles sold in America,
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11:27
from 13 miles per gallon, absolutely pathetic,
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從低得可憐的每加侖 13 哩
11:30
to 26 miles per gallon.
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變成每加侖 26 哩。
11:31
JD: That's big.
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約:那很多。
11:32
HH: It’s pathetic by today’s standards, but it was a big deal then, right?
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哈:以現在的標準來看是低得可憐, 但在當時算很多吧?
加倍耶。
11:36
It was doubling.
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但,因為設定了數字目標,
11:37
But by setting a number as the goal, we created a 25-year plateau.
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我們在這個水平上維持了 25 年。
11:43
So imagine if instead he said
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想像一下,如果他改說
11:45
fuel efficiency will increase at four percent a year forever.
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燃料效率每年都要增加 4%, 會有什麼結果?
11:49
JD: So Hal, goals are great things.
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約:所以,哈爾,有目標是好事,
11:52
How do you find the policymakers that set these goals?
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但要如何找到這些目標的政策制訂者?
11:56
And then how do you influence them?
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你要如何影響他們?
11:58
HH: Well, so that's maybe the most important question of all.
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哈:那可能是所有問題中最重要的。
12:01
If we have a lot of concern about climate change,
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如果我們很關心氣候變遷,
12:04
and not it's properly aimed, it just dissipates.
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沒有把目標設定好,動力就會消失。
12:07
It's a one-day headline about a march.
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只會偶然在新聞頭條 看到遊行抗議的消息。
12:09
And that's not going to get the job done.
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那樣是無法完成什麼的。
12:11
In every sector, in every country, there’s a decision-maker.
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在每個國家的各種經濟活動 都有一名決策者。
12:16
And it’s usually not the senator or the president.
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且通常不是參議員或總統。
12:18
It’s usually an air quality regulator or a public utilities commissioner.
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通常是空氣品質管理單位 或者公用事業委員。
12:22
These are the people
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這些人是經濟體背後控制能源的關鍵。
12:23
that have the secret knobs on the energy of the economy.
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12:26
They're the ones that get to decide whether we get cleaner and cleaner energy,
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他們可以決定我們是否能取得 越來越乾淨的能源,
12:30
more and more efficient buildings, more and more efficient cars,
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或能源效率越來越高的 建築、汽車等等。
12:33
and so forth.
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約:在像美國這樣的經濟體中, 有多少像這樣的人存在?
12:34
JD: How many of these people are there in an economy like the US?
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12:38
HH: Electric utilities are monopolies,
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哈:電力是獨佔事業, 由公用事業委員來管理,
12:40
and so they're regulated by utilities commissions.
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12:42
Otherwise they'd jack up the price too high.
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要不然,它們會把價格抬得太高。
12:44
Every state has a utilities commission, a public utilities commission.
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每個州都有一個公用事業委員會。
12:48
These commissions typically have five members.
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這些委員會通常會有五名委員。
12:51
So that’s about 250 people in America who control the future of our grid.
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所以在美國約有兩百五十個人
控制我們電網的未來。
12:56
None of them's a senator. None of them's a governor.
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當中沒有參議員或州長。 這是委派任命的職務。
12:59
They're appointed positions.
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13:00
JD: How much carbon do they control?
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約:他們控制的碳有多少? 哈:經濟體中四成的碳。
13:02
HH: 40 percent of the carbon in the economy.
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約:哇,兩百五十人。
13:04
JD: Wow. 250 people.
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13:05
HH: 250 individuals.
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哈:兩百五十個人。
13:07
Now, you can narrow that down even more.
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還可以再把名單縮小。
13:09
So let's go for the 30 biggest states. Because this is all about tons, right?
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我們來看最大的三十州, 因為重點就是「量」,對吧?
13:12
JD: Yeah.
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13:13
HH: You're now down to 150 individuals.
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哈:現在就只剩下一百五十個人。
13:15
And if you're content to win votes on a three to two basis,
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如果決議的得票數需要達五分之三,
13:18
you're down to 90 individuals who control almost half the carbon in the economy.
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那就是由九十個人來控制 我們經濟體中近半的排碳量。
13:24
How do you make sure those 90 people vote for a clean energy grid?
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要如何確保這九十個人 能投票給乾淨能源電網?
13:28
They have a quasi-judicial process.
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他們有個類似法院的流程。
13:32
They hold hearings.
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他們會舉辦聽證會,會取得證據。
13:33
They take evidence.
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13:35
They consider what they're allowed to do within their statutory framework.
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他們會考慮在法律的框架中
允許做什麼,
13:40
And then they make a decision.
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然後做出決策。
13:41
They have to look at human health, at economics, at reliability.
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他們必須要考量 人類健康、經濟、可靠度,
13:44
And they have to look at greenhouse gases.
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還必須要考量溫室氣體。
13:47
JD: Is there a breakthrough you’d like to see
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約:你希望看到怎樣的突破?
13:49
or an innovation you’re particularly excited about?
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或者怎樣的創新 會讓你感到特別興奮?
13:52
HH: I'm keen on green hydrogen.
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哈:我很熱衷綠氫。
但我們需要把電解的成本降低,
13:55
I mean, we need to drive down the cost of electrolysis,
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13:57
and it's always going to be more expensive than just pure electricity.
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比起純電力,綠氫永遠都會比較貴。
在熱力學上這點是絕對不變的。
14:01
That's a thermodynamic certainty.
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14:03
But once you have hydrogen,
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但,一旦有了氫,
14:05
you can reform it with other chemicals into liquid fuels,
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就可以把用其他化學物質 將它轉變為液態燃料,
14:09
like synthetic diesel for airplanes or long haul trucks or ships.
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比如飛機、長程卡車、 船艦用的合成柴油,
14:13
You can use it to make fertilizers.
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也可以用它來製造肥料。
14:16
And we can rethink the basics of chemistry.
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我們能重新思考燃料的化學。
14:18
Chemistry's built on hydrocarbons,
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碳氫化合物是燃料的化學基礎,
14:20
and we need to build it on carbohydrates instead.
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我們必須要把它改成 以碳水化合物為基礎;
14:23
So different kinds of molecules, but it’s not impossible.
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不同類型的分子,但並非不可能。
14:26
I guess the other thing that’s fascinating to me
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我想,我感興趣的另一樣東西是
14:28
is this term "stranded investment."
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「投資擱淺」這個詞。
14:32
So if you own a coal-fired power plant or a coal mine today,
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如果現今你在世界上幾乎任何地方
擁有一座燃煤發電廠或煤礦,
14:35
anywhere in the world almost, you have stranded your money.
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你的錢就被套住了,拿不回來,
14:38
You can't get it back.
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14:39
Because they're uneconomic.
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因為它有經濟效應。
14:41
We analyzed every coal plant in America, the economics of every one,
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我們分析了美國每一座 燃煤電廠的經濟效應,
14:44
and 75 percent of them, it's cheaper to shut them down
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當中如果有 75% 直接撤掉,
14:47
and replace them with a brand new wind or solar farm
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改成全新的風力或太陽能農場,
14:50
than just pay the operating costs of that coal plant.
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還比讓燃煤電廠 持續營運的成本更划算。
14:53
So what's going to get stranded next?
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下一個會讓資金擱淺的是什麼? 這是個很重要的問題。
14:55
This is an important question.
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我認為下一個是天然氣。
14:57
I think natural gas is next.
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14:58
It's already skidding along at low prices.
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它的價格已經急遽下跌。
15:02
I think people who are putting a lot of money into gas fields right now,
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我認為現在還把大量的錢 投入到天然氣領域
或燃氣渦輪機的人, 將來一定會後悔這麼做。
15:06
or gas turbines right now, are going to rue the day.
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15:08
John, what are some of the innovations or breakthroughs
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約翰,哪些創新或突破 特別讓你感到興奮?
15:11
that you’re especially excited about?
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約:有個讓我很興奮的發展 來自我的朋友和偶像艾爾高爾,
15:13
JD: Well, one exciting development comes from my friend and hero Al Gore,
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15:17
who has the vision and is working with entrepreneurs,
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他有遠見,且正在和企業家合作,
15:19
that by integrating data can produce,
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透過資料整合,
他們可以即時估算
15:24
for every place on the planet,
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15:26
a new real-time estimate of what their carbon emissions are.
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世界上任何一個地方的碳排放量。
15:31
You know, I come from the school of measuring what matters.
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要知道,我所受的訓練 是要去測量重要的東西。
15:34
HH: Yes you do.
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哈:是的。
15:35
JD: If we had a real-time kind of Google Earth,
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約:如果有一種即時的東西, 像 Google Earth 一樣,
15:38
where we could zoom in to individual factories, or oil fields,
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我們可以放大去看個別的工廠、
油田,或沃爾瑪賣場的碳排放,
15:43
or Walmart stores,
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15:45
I think that could really change the game.
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我認為那真的能夠改變局勢。
15:48
I'm also a believer in carbon accounting.
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我也相信碳盤查。
15:51
And so I've seen entrepreneurs who are making systems
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我曾經見過企業家設計出的系統
15:55
that will allow not just the owners
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可以讓企業或組織的老闆
15:58
but all the employees of an enterprise or organization
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以及所有員工
16:02
to see what's in their carbon supply chain.
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都能看見他們供應鏈中碳排放的情況。
16:05
HH: Yup. Yup.
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哈:是的。
16:06
JD: I'd love to see legislation
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約:我會很樂見法律規定
16:08
that required the OMB score every piece of legislation
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要求管理與預算局將碳衝擊
納入到所有的立法計分當中。
16:13
for its carbon impact.
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16:14
HH: Yes.
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1000
哈:是的。
16:15
JD: If we're serious about this, we're going to measure what matters,
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約:如果我們是玩真的, 就要測量重要的指標,
16:18
measure what really matters.
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真正重要的指標。
16:20
HH: Yup. Yup.
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約:我們來談談巴黎和巴黎協定,
16:21
JD: So let's talk about Paris and the Paris Accord
363
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2334
16:23
because some people say that some nations are ahead of their plans,
364
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因為有些人說,有些國家的步調超前,
16:28
but others are not,
365
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1637
有些國家步調慢,
16:29
and that the agenda is not aggressive enough.
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且議程不夠積極,
16:33
It’s not going to get us where we need to go.
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2180
無法讓我們達成必要的目標。
16:36
What is your view of the Paris Accords?
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3343
你對巴黎協定的看法如何?
16:39
HH: The Paris Accords are quite interesting animals.
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哈:巴黎協定是很有趣的東西。
16:42
It’s not a national commitment and it’s not an international commitment.
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它不是國家的承諾, 也不是國際的承諾。
16:47
JD: They're not binding.
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約、哈:它沒有約束力。
16:48
HH: They're not binding.
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1150
16:49
They're individually determined national contributions.
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它設定了各國分別的貢獻值。
16:53
That’s the term of art that they use in the Paris Accord.
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那是巴黎協定中的專用術語。
16:55
JD: So what does that mean?
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約:那是什麼意思?
16:57
HH: So that means Europe says:
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1436
哈:舉例來說,歐洲說: 我們要在 2030 年
16:58
We're going to do 40 percent less carbon in 2030
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把碳排放量減為 1990 年的 60%。
17:02
than we did in 1990, for example.
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3777
17:05
If they fail to hit that number, there’s no consequences.
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3873
如果他們沒有達成目標, 也不會有任何後果。
17:09
If they go past that number, there’s no consequences.
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如果他們超越了目標, 也不會有任何後果。
17:12
That, however, does that mean the Paris Accords are not important.
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然而,那並不表示巴黎協定不重要,
它相當重要。
17:15
They're really important.
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因為這個協定促進了
17:16
Because they set up, I would call it,
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1767
向上的競爭而非向下的競爭。
17:18
a race to the top instead of a race to the bottom.
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2333
17:20
They set up a dynamic where people were sort of bidding to do better and better.
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3757
他們創造了一種 讓大家企圖越做越好的氛圍。
17:24
They created transparency in how people are doing
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2633
他們建立了透明度,
讓大家都公開自己的碳排放表現。
17:27
in terms of their carbon emissions.
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2280
17:29
And there are some countries that take these commitments very seriously,
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3653
有些國家非常認真看待這些承諾,
17:33
and including the European Union and China on that list.
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3167
包括歐盟和中國在內。
17:36
JD: So I'm going to push on this, and what we really need
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約:讓我就此再深入一點, 我們真正需要的……
17:39
HH: Yup.
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哈:是的。
17:40
is we need a plan.
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約:我們需要一個計畫。
17:42
HH: So elaborate.
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1274
哈:請說明。
17:44
JD: Well, I think what we have today are goals, not a plan.
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約:我認為我們現在 只有目標,沒有計畫。
17:48
And I think a plan
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1634
我認為,計畫要包含一組二十個
17:50
would be a set of 20 focused precision policy efforts,
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6660
分別針對二十個最大排放國,
17:56
each of whom's targeted at the right decision-maker or makers,
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3590
在適當的場合所制定的
18:00
in the right venues, for these 20 largest nations,
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焦點明確的精準政策,
18:04
in the four sectors of their economy.
399
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2220
並囊括四個最大的經濟區塊。
18:06
And these precision campaigns would be well-funded,
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3807
要發起這些精準政策的制定,
資金要充足,焦點要明確,
18:10
they'd be well-focused,
401
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1127
18:11
they'd have an awesome founder/CEO/leader,
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3080
要有一個很棒的創辦人/ 執行長/領導人,
18:14
an amazing staff of people,
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1556
要有出色的成員,
18:16
an accountable set of objectives and key results,
404
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3077
要有一組責任分明的目標和預期成果,
18:19
and be on a timeline.
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1277
且要遵守預計時程,
18:20
We would measure their progress, quarter by quarter.
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1100667
3133
要能夠每季測量計畫的進展。
18:23
That would give me hope that we'll get where we need to go by 2030.
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4167
那就會讓我覺得有望 能在 2030 年達到目標。
18:27
How about you?
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你呢?
18:29
HH: Let me add on a couple of characteristics
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3280
哈:讓我針對你剛才說的,
再補充幾點。
18:32
to exactly what you just said.
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1757
18:34
And that is you need to have a deep understanding
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2283
那就是,你必須要 深入了解決策者是誰,
18:36
of who the decision-maker is, ideally by person, certainly by position,
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4340
理想狀況下,要知道是哪個人, 一定要知道是哪個職務。
18:40
and understand exactly what motivates them or hinders them in making this decision
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並確切了解他們做此決策的 動機或阻礙是什麼,
18:45
so that you can put all your forces on the decision-maker at point of decision.
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這麼一來你才能在決策的時刻 傾全力影響決策者。
18:49
It's one thing to have a general concern about the environment or about climate.
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對於環境或氣候有所關心是一回事。
18:54
It's quite another to focus that concern
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把關心的焦點放在地球上 最重要的決策上,
18:56
on the most important decisions on the planet.
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2153
又是另一回事了。
那就是我們需要做的。
18:59
And that's what we need to do.
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1480
19:00
I love this idea.
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1174
我喜歡這個想法。
19:01
JD: Okay, so focus on the decision-makers.
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2917
約:好,所以要把焦點 放在決策者身上,
19:04
I think there's other individual action that we can and must take.
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但我認為有些個人行動 是我們應該也必須要去做的。
19:07
We've got to amplify your voice
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個人必須把你的聲音放大,
19:11
so that you organize, activate, proselytize, your company,
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這樣你就能組織、發動、勸服
19:15
your neighbors, youth, I think are an incredibly powerful voice,
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你的公司、你的鄰居、年輕人
——我認為年輕人有很強大的聲音——
19:20
and friends.
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還有朋友。
19:21
HH: Yup.
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1000
19:22
JD: You need to vote.
427
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1015
約:你得去投票。
19:23
HH: Yup.
428
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1015
19:24
JD: You need to vote like your life depends on it.
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約:你得把投票視為悠關你的生死。
19:27
So Hal, what does this all add up to?
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3300
哈爾,總結是什麼?
19:30
What's the takeaway?
431
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1933
關鍵的訊息是什麼?
19:32
HH: I'm an optimist, John. I've seen this possible.
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哈:我是樂觀主義者, 約翰,我見過這種可能性。
19:35
I've seen when nations decide to do great things,
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我見過國家決定去做偉大的事,
19:37
they can do great things.
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他們也做得到。
19:39
Think of America’s rural electrification or the interstate highway system we built.
435
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想想美國的鄉村電氣化 或者我們建造的洲際公路系統。
那些都是能改變國家的大計畫。
19:43
Those are huge projects that transformed the country.
436
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19:45
What we did prepping for World War II: we built 300,000 airplanes in four years.
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我們為了二次大戰做的準備:
我們在四年內建造了三十萬架飛機。
19:51
So if we decide to do something,
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如果我們決定要做某件事,
19:53
or when the Germans or the Chinese or the Indians decide to do something,
439
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3464
或者當德國、中國、印度
或其他國家決定要做某件事,
19:57
other countries,
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1000
19:58
they can get it done.
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它們都能做到。
19:59
But if this is sort of piffling around the edges,
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但如果只是做個樣子,
20:02
we won't get there.
443
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我們是辦不到的。
20:04
What do you think? Are you optimistic?
444
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1836
你認為呢?你樂觀嗎?
20:06
JD: My take on this is, I may not be optimistic, but I'm hopeful.
445
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4730
約:對此議題的立場,我可能不樂觀,
但我抱持希望。
20:10
I really think the crucial question is: Can we do what we must,
446
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我真心認為關鍵的問題是:
我們能否做到我們必須要做的事,
20:15
at speed and at scale?
447
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且速度要快,規模要大?
20:18
The good news is, it's now clearly cheaper to save the planet than to ruin it.
448
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4853
好消息是,目前, 拯救地球比毀滅地球更便宜。
20:23
The bad news is, we are fast running out of time.
449
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壞消息是,我們快要沒時間了。
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