How Gaming Can Be a Force for Good | Noah Raford | TED

翻译人员: Yip Yan Yeung 校对人员: Grace Man

Do you spend more money on virtual fashion in video games

比起实体的服装，你有没有 在电子游戏中的虚拟装扮上

than you do on physical clothes?

花过更多的钱？

About a third of all teenage gamers in America do.

有差不多三分之一的 美国青少年玩家会这么做。

Do you think the government is actually run by a secret cabal

你会不会觉得政府是由一个

of demon-worshiping perverts?

崇拜恶魔的变态们 组成的秘密团体统治的？

About 50 million people do.

有 5000 万人这么觉得。

(Laughter)

（笑声）

These numbers sound crazy to you?

这些数字很离谱吗？

It's because they are,

确实很离谱，

but they're also a sign of things to come.

但也是未来的预兆。

The world feels like a pretty insane place right now.

我们的世界现在一团乱麻。

And if you spend any time on the internet at all,

如果你上网看看，

you can probably tell that people think it's going to get a lot worse.

你会发现人们都认为 情况只会越来越糟。

Now, that may be the case,

也许确实是对的，

but this feeling is why I believe

这也是为什么我觉得

that we're going to see a rise in social unrest

在接下来几十年里 会更频繁地出现社会动荡，

in the coming decades,

and that is going to come from a surprising place.

而这些动荡的出处 会让你意想不到——

Video games.

电子游戏。

Now before you think, "Is this going to be another talk

你可能会想：“这又是那种

把电子游戏和暴力 扯在一起的演讲吧？”

linking video game to violence?"

Sorry to disappoint you,

不好意思让你失望了，

that’s been proven conclusively wrong, and that is really old thinking.

这已经被证实是一个错误的说法了， 太封建了。

But what I am going to argue is that video games are going to become

但是我想说， 电子游戏会成为

the platform through which tomorrow's social battles will be fought

未来社会战争的战场，

and the source of recruitment for some of the strangest

也会是未来最诡异、 也许是最有影响力的

and possibly most impactful social movements of the future.

社会运动的参与者来源。

I like to call these video gamecults.

我想称之为“电子游戏邪教”。

Sounds kind of scary, I admit,

我承认听起来有点吓人，

but I hope to show how they might also be used

但是我想给大家展示

as a tool to cause some serious hope.

它们如何点燃 一些切实的未来希望。

Now this is all just my personal opinion.

这只是我的个人观点。

But I started thinking about this a few years ago

但是自从几年前 我在波斯湾工作的时候，

after I heard a very interesting story while working in the Gulf.

听到了一个非常有意思的故事， 我就开始有了这样的想法。

The story was about Hassan ibn Sabbah,

故事的主人公是哈桑·本·萨巴赫 （Hassan ibn Sabbah），

a charismatic young preacher who lived about 1,000 years ago

他是一个非常有魅力的年轻牧师， 来自大约一千年前，

in an age full of drama, conflict and social change.

那个时代充满了戏剧性、 冲突和社会变革。

Hassan became famous for creating the Order of Assassins:

哈桑因创立阿萨辛派 （Order of Assassins）而成名：

a fanatically devoted group of young men

一群狂热、忠诚的年轻人，

known as the fedayeen,

称为“敢死队”（fedayeen），

"those who sacrifice themselves."

意为“自我牺牲者”。

His men were so devoted to him

这些人对他十分忠诚，

that, the legend goes,

传说

they would throw themselves from the rafters to their death

只要他一声令下， 他们就愿意跳楼自杀。

at his command.

Actually, this is where we get the expression "a leap of faith" from.

这也就是“信仰之跃”的来源。

So this got me thinking.

于是我就想，

Why would someone do this?

怎么会有人愿意做这种事？

What could convince someone so fervently to believe in something

如何才能说服一个人 如此狂热地崇拜一样东西，

that they would welcome their own death?

狂热到他们可以坦然了结自己？

The answer is 11th century virtual reality.

答案就是“ 11 世纪虚拟现实”。

See, Hassan had cultivated a myth

哈桑捏造了一个神话：

that he could send people to heaven and bring them back again

他可以把人送入天堂再接回来，

without actually having to die.

人也不会真的去死。

And of course, he didn't actually have this power,

当然，他也没这能耐，

but before a mission, the story goes,

但是在任务开始之前，

he would dose his soldiers with massive amounts of hash.

他会让手下大量嗑药。

(Laughter)

（笑声）

Their enemies actually called them the "ḥashshāshīn,"

他们的敌人称他们为 “ḥashshāshīn”，

which is also where we get the word "assassin" from.

也是“刺客”（assassin） 一词的来源。

This would knock them out and then he would lower them down

他把这些年轻人打晕，拖到

into a secret garden he had built behind his mountain fortress,

一个建在山寨后面的秘密花园里去，

designed to look exactly like a replica of heaven.

照搬了天堂的外观。

Waking up in this simulated paradise,

这些人在这模拟天堂中醒来，

his men would gorge themselves

纵情享受

on all the things they had been denied in life.

之前人生中的禁忌之物。

Then, after a night of ecstasy,

在这一夜纸醉金迷之后，

they would awaken back in their barracks,

他们又在小破屋中醒来，

convinced of Hassan's powers,

对哈桑的力量五体投地，

eager to fulfill his suicide missions in order to return to heaven again.

迫不及待自杀一次， 这样可以重返天堂。

So.

所以，

What does this have to do with today?

和今时今日有什么关系呢？

Well, most scholars agree that this is probably just a myth,

大多数学者认为这只是个传说，

but that's not the point.

但是这不重要。

The point is that people believed deeply in Hassan

重要的是人们对哈桑和

他对世界的畅想深信不疑，

and his vision for the world

and were willing to sacrifice their lives for it.

甚至愿意牺牲自己的性命 前往这个世界。

He gave them a sense of meaning and purpose

哈桑在动荡时期

during a time of great uncertainty.

给予了这些人 人生的意义和使命感。

A purpose which he communicated using the best tools of his day.

他用当时最有力的工具 传达了这个使命。

And that is what brings us to video games.

也就牵扯上了电子游戏。

Video games are already the world's dominant form of entertainment.

电子游戏已经是 世界上最主流的娱乐形式。

They're three times larger

电子游戏行业

than the entire global film and music industries combined.

比全球电影和音乐产业 加起来大三倍。

Every year,

每年，

the top streamers on Twitch receive on average twice as many views

Twitch 平台上的顶流博主 比最火爆的好莱坞电影

as the biggest Hollywood movies.

达成的观影量大约多一倍。

And collectively,

合计起来，

we spend twice as much time watching and playing video games

我们在观看、打游戏上花的时间

as we do using all other forms of social media combined.

要比花在其他所有 社交媒体上的时间多一倍。

That's a lot of eyeballs.

这可是万众瞩目。

Game sales are huge,

游戏本身的销量巨大，

but the real action is in in-game economies

但是更大头在于游戏内的交易，

where people spend over 130 billion dollars a year

人们每年会在虚拟商品的

buying and selling virtual goods online.

线上交易上 花费超过 1300 亿美元。

Everything from outfits to avatars, to vehicles to weapons,

服饰、虚拟形象、坐骑、武器、

to dances to architecture to music,

舞蹈动作、建筑、音乐、

to access to live events and more.

在线活动入场券等等。

Haven't even mentioned NFT or Web3,

我都还没提到 NFT 或者 Web3，

but these hopefully will become the infrastructure

但是它们很有可能 会成为驱动未来的基础设施。

that drives this going forward.

So if you're wondering what the metaverse looks like,

如果你想知道 元宇宙是什么样子的，

this is it.

就是这样的。

The reason games are so successful

游戏产业大获成功的原因是

is because they provide a deep sense of engagement,

它提供了一种参与感、

community and purpose.

社群感和使命感。

Yes, we use them to escape and to entertain, and that’s OK.

没错，我们通过游戏逃避现实、 娱乐身心，这很正常。

But at their best,

但是最佳的情况是

they speak to some of our primal social and psychological needs,

游戏可以抒发我们最初级的 社交和心理需求，

from feeling effective to achieving our goals,

无论是达成目标的成就感、

to belonging to a group,

团体归属感，

to working for something bigger than yourself.

还是努力成就大业的激情。

Describing his experience in a top World of Warcraft guild,

玩家 Wincy 描述了他在 魔兽世界顶级公会中的经历：

the player Wincy once wrote,

"It felt so amazing...

“太爽了……

Thinking back, it was probably the most intense,

回想一下，这也许是我人生中 最浓墨重彩、

positive emotional experience of my life.

最振奋人心的一段经历了。

Not my kid being born, not getting married."

不是我孩子出生的时刻， 也不是我结婚的时刻。”

(Laughter)

（笑声）

"My mind was convinced we were in a war against an insurmountable foe

“我的信念是 我们正在与劲敌战斗，

and we won."

然后我们赢了。”

You can probably see where I'm going with this.

你可能会猜到接下来的走向。

Although he later went on to regret the amount of time he spent online,

虽然后来他后悔 在线上花了这么多时间，

gamers develop a deep sense of commitment to a shared narrative world.

玩家们还是全情投入了 这个共享的虚拟世界。

A world which provides for them in a way that "real-world" jobs

这个世界为他们带来 “现实”工作和人际关系

and relationships often do not.

通常无法提供的价值。

And this is already the world that our children live in.

这也是我们的孩子 身处的世界。

The only thing that my son and daughter want for their birthdays

我的儿女想要的生日礼物

are Skyblock coins and digital emotes for their characters.

是空岛生存（Skyblock）币 和他们角色的虚拟表情。

Most of their social time outside of school

他们大部分的课余社交时间

is spent hanging out in-game with their friends.

都花在了和朋友们 在游戏里玩耍上。

My son Teo, he's already flipping NFTs to, in his words,

我的儿子提奥（Teo）， 已经开始倒卖 NFT，用他的话说，

get rich as quickly as possible

他想迅速发家致富，

so he can take care of us when the world falls apart.

这样他就能在 地球毁灭的时候保护我们。

Thanks Teo, appreciate that.

谢谢提奥。

That's why I think games

这就是为什么我觉得游戏

are going to be one of the driving forces of tomorrow's culture.

会是未来文化的一种驱动力。

But if that's the game's part, what about the cults part?

但这说的是“游戏”的部分， 那“邪教”的部分呢？

Well, I'm sure we can all agree

我觉得我们都同意

that the coming years are going to be interesting, to say the least.

接下来的几年 至少会比较有趣。

From climate change, mass migration,

气候变化，大规模移民，

pandemics, job loss

疫情，失业，

and now war.

现在又有了战争。

The future feels terrifying for many people.

对很多人来说， 未来很恐怖。

And this is having a tremendous impact on our mental health.

这也严重影响了我们的心理健康。

One third of all US undergraduates surveyed

三分之一的美国大学生受访者

report having moderate to severe anxiety.

表示他们有中度至重度焦虑。

Their rates of suicidal thinking and severe depression

他们患有自杀倾向和重度抑郁的比例

doubled over the last decade or so.

自过去十年翻了一倍。

And COVID didn't help.

新冠肺炎只会这个情况更糟。

But it's not just the US, either.

这也不只是美国的情况。

Two thirds of those surveyed in a study of 17 different countries

来自 17 个国家的三分之二受访者

reported that they thought their children were going to grow up poorer

表示他们觉得 孩子会越长越差，

and not have successful careers.

以后也不会事业有成。

In other words,

换句话说，

the world feels like it's falling apart for a lot of people.

很多人都觉得地球要毁灭了。

And when worlds fall apart,

等到地球真的要毁灭的时候，

people start looking for answers wherever they can find them.

人们就会开始竭尽所能寻找答案。

And charismatic leaders like Hassan have always been happy to provide them.

像哈桑这样的魅力领袖 就乐于给予他们这样的答案。

And their actions have shaped the course of history.

他们的行为影响了历史的走向。

From the Protestant Reformation in the 16th century

无论是 16 世纪的新教改革，

to the rise of new religious movements in the 19th century,

还是 19 世纪 层出不穷的新教运动，

every era of social change historically has been followed by a wave

历史上每个 社会变革的时代都伴随着

of new believers and fanatical behavior.

一大波新信徒和狂热行为。

QAnon is just the most recent example.

“匿名者 Q”（QAnon） 就是最近的一个例子。

And while each generation's cults look different

虽然每一代的邪教看起来不太一样，

and the definition of a cult is certainly up for debate,

人们对“邪教”的定义也各执一词，

they do share general characteristics.

但是它们还是有一些共同的特征。

The first is that they inspire a sense of higher purpose,

首先，它们会激发 一种崇高的使命感，

often through a lens of good versus evil, where you are the hero,

通常通过构建好坏对立， 而你是其中正义的一方，

that creates a sense of passion or commitment that seems insane

引发一种在外人看来 十分疯狂不理智的

or irrational to the outsider.

狂热或献身精神。

And the second is that they adopt the form of

第二，它们会采取

and use the tools of the dominant organizations of their day.

当时的主流组织 采用的形式和工具。

From the church

教会、

to the corporation

企业、

to the social media network

社交媒体网络，

to our subject for today, the metaverse.

再到现今炙手可热的 元宇宙。

So what happens when you mix billions of people looking for meaning,

如果你把数十亿 追求意义和安全的人

safety and security

with widespread virtual worlds,

和遍地开花的虚拟世界、

crypto economies and gaming culture?

加密经济模式、游戏文化 混杂在一起，会怎么样？

The answer, I believe, is “gamecults.”

我相信答案会是“游戏邪教”。

Large-scale social movements

大规模的社会运动

powered by extreme or bizarre beliefs,

由极端或者怪异的信仰驱使，

birthed in virtual worlds,

诞生于虚拟世界，

driven by game dynamics,

驱动于游戏动机，

but with real-world consequence.

但是会造成现实世界中的后果。

The future is about to get weird.

未来越来越诡异了。

We can already see examples of this all around us.

身边的例子屡见不鲜。

We just haven't had a name for it yet.

只是我们还没为这种情况命名。

Softer versions look like BTS stans swarming Donald Trump rallies online,

一个不那么极端的例子是

BTS 狂热粉丝 集体鸽了特朗普的竞选活动，

but more extreme versions look like Hezbollah's own custom-made video game

一个更极端的例子是 黎巴嫩真主党自制的电子游戏，

called Special Forces, designed to recruit young people

称为“真主党特种部队” 旨在招募年轻人，

and train them to kill their enemies.

训练他们， 让他们杀光敌人。

White nationalist groups are hosting Call of Duty tournaments online

白人国家主义团体在线上 组织使命召唤锦标赛，

to attract followers,

吸引粉丝，

and there are Roblox games where you can drive your car

在一个罗布乐思（Roblox） 出的游戏中，你可以开车

through Black Lives Matter protesters

穿过“黑人的命也是命”（BLM）的 抗议者队伍，

or assume the role of Kyle Rittenhouse and shoot anti-fascist protesters.

代入你就是凯尔·里滕豪斯 （Kyle Rittenhouse），

射杀反法西斯抗议者。

And there are many other examples,

还有很多的例子，

but all of them are wrapped in a layer of Discord servers

它们由 Discord 服务器、

and YouTube channels and podcasts

Youtube 频道、播客引导，

that act as the funnel to draw you deeper into a web of extremism

这些渠道会把你引向极端主义

and radical behavior.

和激进行为的魔窟。

What starts on the screen no longer stays on the screen.

屏幕里的事 将蔓延至屏幕之外。

QAnon is a perfect example of this.

“匿名者 Q” 就是一个完美的例子。

What started on 4chan and Facebook,

起家自 4chan 网和脸谱网，

mutated into a live-action role-playing group

逐渐演化成了一个 实况角色扮演集团，

for evangelical militants

充满了狂热的激进分子，

and ended up as an anti-vaccination campaign.

最后搞了一个反疫苗活动。

Before you know it,

可以给你分享一下，

we have a million excess deaths from COVID in the United States

美国有超一百万人 死于新冠，

and a political landscape far stranger than anything we've ever seen.

政治局势前所未有地怪异离奇。

The same is going to be true for games.

游戏也是如此。

First you're a player,

你先成为了一名玩家，

then you're a fan,

然后是一个粉丝，

soon you're in a clan,

不久你加入了一个帮派，

and before you know it, you're invading the Capitol.

还没等你反应过来， 你已经在入侵国会大厦了。

So I'm a futurist.

我是个未来主义者。

And there's a saying with futurists,

有人这么说未来主义者，

that your job is not to just predict the automobile,

你的工作不单单是预测汽车，

but to predict the traffic jams.

而是预测路况。

So what might this look like in 10 or 20 years,

所以在 10 年、20 年之后，

when widespread augmented and virtual reality

增强现实和虚拟现实 广泛普及，

meets thriving crypto economies and a generalized crisis of meaning?

加密经济蓬勃发展，追寻意义已经 见弃于人，会是什么样的情形？

Well in the future,

未来，

games are going to be everywhere.

游戏将无处不在。

They're going to move from our screens and onto the streets around us.

它们会走出屏幕，走上街头。

Hundreds of millions, if not billions of people

不说几十亿人， 至少有几亿人

will be buying, selling, making and trading virtual goods online.

会在线上买卖、制造、 交易虚拟物品。

They're going to assume roles as characters,

他们会选择虚拟角色，

follow quests and get real-world money for in-game performance.

踏上征途，根据游戏内的表现 赚取现实中的报酬。

Guilds, corporations and clans will form around them.

他们周围会组建 公会、集团、帮派。

They might start offering salaries, paying benefits,

也许会付工资、给福利，

and providing real-world services like education or health care or even security.

提供一些现实生活中的服务， 如教育、医疗，甚至是安保。

People's entire lives will be built around their characters and their stories,

人们的整个人生将围绕着 他们的角色和故事形成，

particularly if things get really bad.

尤其是在人生 不那么顺利的时候。

And those stories will come to dominate popular culture and politics.

这些故事会主导 流行文化和政治走向。

Now, thankfully, not all of them will be harmful,

好在不是所有游戏都在干坏事，

but some will be violently evangelical in their nature.

但是有些游戏的本质就是 具有强烈煽动性的。

It's got me thinking, there must be a better way

我不禁想， 一定有一个更好的方法

that we can use these dynamics

让我们通过这些游戏

to heal instead of harm.

产生正面影响而不是负面影响。

So I started thinking, what might this look like?

所以我想， 会是一种什么样的情形呢？

How can we explore possible futures for positive gamecults?

我们该如何探索 正向“游戏邪教”的未来呢？

So here are just three examples I came up with a few friends.

我和我的朋友们想到了 以下三个例子。

Consider Druidica, a Minecraft-like nature game

Druidica 是一个《我的世界》 （Minecraft）性质的游戏，

designed to restore damaged ecosystems

旨在修复被破坏的生态系统，

and preserve indigenous knowledge.

保护当地文化。

Or perhaps Walkabout,

Walkabout，

a Rust-like survival game for refugees

一个类似于《腐蚀》（Rust）的 生存游戏，面向难民，

designed to encourage skill sharing,

鼓励共享技能、

interdependence and mutual aid

相互依赖、互相帮助，

linked to scriptural messages of tolerance and compassion.

传达《圣经》中的 宽容和怜悯之意。

Or perhaps Temple, a pray-to-earn game,

还有 Temple， 一个“边祈祷边赚”形式的游戏，

linked to a network of nondenominational meditation spaces

提供一个无宗教 冥想空间网络，

where players can perform coordinated acts of care

玩家可以组织关爱活动，

to level up on the good works board.

提高善行榜上的等级。

A kind of, decentralized church of kindness,

就像是一种 去中心化的善意教会，

powered maybe by HOLY coin.

也许由 HOLY 币（意为“圣币”， 虚构的虚拟货币，类比 ETH 等）支持。

It's clear that something like this is coming.

类似这样的现象近在眼前。

The question is: What can we do about it now?

问题是：我们现在能做些什么呢？

As we've learned from social media,

我们从社交媒体得到的教训是

technological fixes and regulatory restrictions will only go so far.

技术修复和监管限制 已经到了终点。

And in the attention economy of political priorities,

但是在这政治优先级导向的 注意力经济（attention economy）中，

gamecults are clearly quite low.

游戏邪教并没有受到多少重视。

But that’s OK,

没关系，

it means we still have time to do something about them.

这意味着我们还能为此做点什么。

That's why I think that everyone,

这也就是为什么我认为每个人，

from policymakers to players to game designers and gamers

无论你是政策制定者、参与者、 还是游戏设计师和玩家，

should be having a conversation about what this means right now.

现在都该思考一下 它代表着什么。

If you are a media company,

如果你有一家媒体公司，

you should be talking to experts in radicalization.

你该去和激进化专家谈谈。

If you are a game company,

如果你有一家游戏公司，

you should be speaking to those who don't understand gaming dynamics

你该去和那些 不懂游戏动机的人谈一谈，

and the communities around them.

了解一下他们身边的社群。

If you're a church or a religious institution,

如果你经营着 一个宗教组织的教会，

you should be understanding how people use these tools to build beliefs

你该去了解一下人们 如果运用这些工具构建信仰

and what they're believing.

和他们信奉的事物。

And finally, perhaps most importantly, if you're a parent,

最后一点，也许也是最重要的一点， 如果你有孩子，

you should be playing games with your kids

你该和你的孩子们一起打打游戏，

to understand the world that they're growing up in

了解一下他们成长的环境，

and to have a conversation with them about the role that they might play in it.

和他们聊一聊 他们应该在其中扮演什么样的角色。

Someone's going to connect these dots.

会有人清醒地看透这一切。

The question is:

问题是：

Who is going to be our modern-day Hassan?

谁会成为当代的哈桑呢？

And will the games of tomorrow be games of subjugation and domination?

游戏的未来会是征服和统治吗？

Or inspiration and liberation.

还是启迪和自由呢？

It's really up to us.

这就取决于我们自己了。

Thank you.

谢谢。

(Applause)

（掌声）