How to Realistically Decarbonize the Oil and Gas Industry | Bjørn Otto Sverdrup | TED Countdown

翻译人员: Loch He 校对人员: Helen Chang

I'm an identical twin.

我有一个双胞胎兄弟，

This is a picture of me and my twin brother,

这是我们两个的照片。

running a 60-meters race, five years old.

我们当时 5 岁， 在比赛跑 60 米。

(Laughter)

（笑声）

I can't tell who's who.

这两个人我是分不清的。

My mom can still not tell the difference either.

连我妈也分不清。

Also, at the time, I didn't know that the air we were breathing

并且我也不知道， 当时赛跑的时候，

when we were running

我们呼吸的空气

had a concentration of 320 particles per million.

颗粒浓度达到了 320 ppm。

Today, that is 410.

而今天的浓度 高达 410 ppm，

Scarily close to the 430 threshold

几乎快到 430 的极限，

scientists are telling us we need to stay below

科学家们说这个数字需要下降，

in order to keep below 1.5 degrees warming.

才能让全球变暖 低于 1.5 摄氏度。

This change has happened in my lifetime,

我的一生都在见证这个变化，

in our lifetimes.

在座各位也是。

A big part of the challenge is the energy system.

这个挑战很大程度上来自能源体系。

Actually two thirds of the energy system are coming from fossil fuels.

其实，三分之二的能源 来自化石燃料，

So basically we cannot fix climate without fixing the energy system.

所以如果不解决能源体系的问题， 我们就不能解决气候问题。

And the one industry that needs to make the biggest change

那么需要做出最大改变的一个行业

is the oil and gas industry.

就是石油和天然气产业。

Many are blaming the oil and gas industry,

许多人在抱怨

油气产业已经放弃改变了，

giving up on it ever changing,

being very impatient to see change.

他们太急躁了。

I can understand that impatience.

我能理解这份焦急，

I am impatient too.

我自己也很着急。

But I still believe that we are better off not ignoring this industry.

但我还是认为不能忽视这一产业。

Let's instead try to turn it into --

相反，我们要做的是——

to help drive the change we need to see.

努力推动我们想要看到的改变。

Let me tell you why.

为什么这么说呢？

I lead an organization that's called

我在领导一个组织，

叫做石油和天然气气候倡议， OGCI，

Oil and Gas Climate Initiative, OGCI.

It brings together 12 of the largest companies in the world,

聚集世界上 12 大公司

and their CEOs.

与其首席执行官（CEO）。

The members, household names,

这些公司家喻户晓，

are actually producing, every day,

他们每天的油气产量

nearly 30 percent of the world's oil and gas production.

几乎占据了全世界总量的 30%。

Even if some of you would like these companies to just disappear,

可能在座的有些人 会希望这些公司能消失，

what they are doing matters to all of us every day.

但他们每天所做的 其实与我们息息相关。

Changing the energy system is going to be hard.

改变能源体系确实很困难。

We need to turn from an 80 percent fossil-fuel-based system

要让化石燃料占据的 80% 能源体系

to a completely zero-emission system.

完全实现零排放，

That would require massive investments,

我们需要大量的投资，

radical policy shift and us changing behavior.

需要彻底的政策转型和行为转型，

We need to balance that transition with the needs of nature, fairness

要让转型与自然和公平的需求平衡，

and also to avoid shortage of energy

还要避免能源短缺，

and economic dislocations.

避免经济混乱。

And time is very limited.

但我们的时间非常有限，

So it's very hard to just comprehend the scale of the change.

所以单是理解这一改变的规模 就很难了。

But change, we must.

但我们必须做出改变。

A handful of companies cannot take on that challenge alone.

仅有这几家公司是无法克服挑战的。

But we can do more than most.

但我们会不断努力。

So let me offer you one framework

那么现在我要介绍的这个框架，

of what I believe we can do

我认为是我们能够实现的，

and why it matters.

以及为什么非常重要。

I call that the 1/4/20 challenge.

我称之为 1/4/20 挑战。

That is, one gigaton,

意思是，1 个十亿吨、

four gigatons and 20 gigatons of CO2.

4 个十亿吨，

以及 20 个十亿吨的二氧化碳。

Have in mind, the entire CO2 emission system is 55 gigatons.

要知道，整个体系的 二氧化碳排放有 550 亿吨。

Thirty-three related to energy,

330 亿吨源于能源体系，

13 of those coal.

其中 130 亿吨是燃煤导致的，

And we know what needs to happen to the coal.

关于燃煤我们也需要做出改变。

So the 20 is the sum of the emissions from the oil and gas.

那么油气导致的排放总量 为 200 亿吨，

Let's start with the one.

我们先看看这一部分。

So when the oil and gas,

那几家油气产业的公司，

the members of the organization OGCI, are producing oil and gas,

也就是 OGCI 组织的成员， 他们在生产石油和天然气，

they are having emissions,

这就会造成排放，

mainly from compressors and turbines.

主要是压缩机和汽轮机产生的。

So they use energy to provide energy, right?

所以这其实是 用能源来生产能源，对吧？

The scope 1 emissions.

这属于范围 1 排放。

So the first challenge is to bring those emissions to zero.

那么第一个挑战就是 实现范围 1 零排放。

A few weeks ago, the CEOs came together

几周前，几位 CEO 聚在一起

and for the first time signed up on the shared ambition

首次签署了共同的决心计划，

to bring all their own emissions to net-zero

即在《巴黎协定》规定的时间框架内

within the time frame set by the Paris Agreement.

实现自身的零排放。

They also promised to leverage their influence

他们也承诺会充分发挥影响力，

to achieve the same in all the fields where they’re a non-operator.

带动自身业务不涉及的 其他所有领域。

They have never done that before.

这是前所未有的。

And to me, that was a significant step.

于我而言，这实属一大进步。

How are we going to do that?

要如何实现这一决心呢？

Eliminating methane emissions, slashing flaring,

实现甲烷零排放，减少燃烧，

electrifying operations.

实现电力化运行。

In a bit longer, distant future,

在更长远些的未来，

we will need to use hydrogen in our own operations,

我们会用氢气作为生产能源，

carbon capture and storage and other solutions.

其他解决方案还包括 碳捕获、碳储存等，

Each of the companies will have different ways

各家公司会用不同的办法

of fulfilling their net-zero ambition.

来实现他们零排放的决心。

You might say it doesn't matter or it's not enough,

可能有人会说这起不到作用， 或者这远远不够，

but daring to say "net-zero" changes minds.

但我敢说， “零排放”会让他们改变心态的，

It shifts your mindset from one of defensive to proactive.

会让人们从被动防守变为积极主动，

From incremental change to having your eyes on the end goal.

让人们从关注阶段性变化 变为关注最终目标。

I've seen this happen in my own company

我亲身经历了这些变化，

called Equinor, of Norway.

就在我自己的公司， 挪威的 Equinor。

A few years ago, we decided to strive for net-zero.

几年前，我们决定争取实现零排放。

You know what happened?

之后发生了什么呢？

Deep changes in attitudes and behavior of all of the employees started to unfold,

公司所有员工的态度和行为 都出现了巨大的变化。

not only among the top management.

不仅仅只是高管层，

Thousands of engineers started to look at new solutions

其他数千名工程师也开始用新的眼光

had looked at them differently.

看待新的解决方式。

Renewables started to become interesting,

大家开始对可再生能源感兴趣，

investment plans changed,

并改变了投资计划，

cash started to flow differently.

推动现金以不同的方式流动。

Now, one gigaton is only a part of the challenge,

那么，1 个十亿吨 只是挑战的一部分，

but it's quite big.

但却是很大一部分。

To put it into perspective,

这么说吧，

it's the combined emissions of all airplanes in the world worldwide.

这一部分相当于 全世界飞机的排放总量。

So let's try to make that happen.

所以努力争取早日实现这个目标吧。

The four-gigaton challenge.

而 4 个十亿吨的挑战，

That is the prize

需要我们努力

if we're able to get all of the oil and gas companies in the world

让全世界的油气公司

to accept the same membership.

都参与到其中来，

All the national oil companies,

不论是所有国家石油公司，

all the smaller companies.

还是其他小规模公司。

Four gigaton.

4 个十亿吨，

I'm going to repeat that number,

这个数字也就是 40 亿，

four billion tons of CO2 each year.

每年 40 亿吨的二氧化碳，

That is equal to seven percent of the world's total emissions.

相当于全世界排放总量的 7%。

A price that is so big that we cannot ignore it.

如此庞大的一部分实在不容忽视。

How can we do that?

我们要怎么做到呢？

We believe that we can lead the way

我们相信是有办法的，

by helping to set ambitions, setting targets,

来帮助大家建立决心，设定目标，

and also to help countries to identify where the problem [is].

让各个国家意识到问题到底在哪里。

We have set targets,

我们其实已经设定了目标，

we have all sorts of shorter-term targets towards 2025,

也就是 2025 年之前的 各种短期目标，

for our own performance,

来提高我们自身的业绩。

but we also are setting targets that can inspire the industry.

我们还设定了 激励整个油气产业的目标。

Recently, we also acquired satellite services

最近，我们还推出了卫星服务

to help countries better monitor their methane leaks, for instance,

来帮助不同国家， 比如更好地监测甲烷泄漏，

a very big part of the challenge.

这是挑战中的一大难关。

The good thing with this industry,

好消息是，

we know how to solve the problems.

我们知道如何解决油气产业的问题。

But we also know that an enabling policy environment

但我们也知道，

will accelerate the change.

有利的政策会加速转变。

Particularly important thing is a price on carbon.

碳价就是特别重要的一点。

In some countries, 50 dollars per ton will drive change.

一些国家将碳价定为 每吨 50 美元，来推动转变。

In my own country, Norway,

我所在的国家，挪威，

the plan now is to increase that to nearly 200 dollars by 2030.

现在计划到 2030 年前 把碳价涨到每吨近 200 美元。

That is driving change.

这也是在推动转变。

Now, the one- and the four-gigaton challenge

那么， 1 个十亿吨和 4 个十亿吨，

is both about improving the existing energy system.

这两个挑战都是在 改善现有的能源体系。

What we need to do is, of course, to also build a future energy system.

当然，我们还需要 构建未来的能源体系。

New solutions.

所以需要新方法。

The 20-gigaton challenge, as I call it, is a very different challenge.

我将之称为 20 个十亿吨挑战。 不同于前两项，

It's a truly collective one.

这一挑战离不开集体的努力。

Supply needs to change

供给需要改变，

as does demand.

需求也需要改变。

And we need to find a way of doing that

并且我们需要尽快有序地克服挑战，

as quickly as possible and as orderly as possible.

越快越好，有条不紊。

The oil and gas industry can, of course, decarbonize quicker themselves,

当然， 油气产业可以先实现自身的脱碳，

but they can also help others achieve their decarbonization efforts.

但同时也可以 帮助其他产业做出努力。

And inside industry, a transformation is underway.

油气产业自身的转变已经开始了。

Not complete,

还在进行中，

but I dare say underway.

但我敢说已经开始了。

Oil and gas companies are starting to see themselves

石油和天然气公司 已经开始自视为能源公司

as energy companies and act like it.

并采取相应的措施。

Renewables is becoming the fastest growth area.

可再生能源正成为增长最快的领域。

For Equinor, my company, for instance,

比如说，刚才提到的 我自己的公司 Equinor，

the biggest new project is not another oil and gas platform.

规模最大的新项目 并不在于油气领域，

It’s actually an offshore wind farm development in the North Sea:

而是在北海开发的海上风电。

a ten-billion-dollar investment

这座海上风电场 耗资100 亿美元，

with the capability to power 4.5 million homes in the UK.

可以为英国 450 万户家庭供电。

Further up north in the UK,

英国北部的几家公司，

Shell, BP and other companies

诸如壳牌、BP 等等，

are involved in developing carbon-capture and storage industry

都在努力发展碳捕获和碳储存，

that will help cement, steel, and other industries

帮助水泥、钢铁等其他产业

meet their climate efforts.

为实现气候目标作出努力。

This used to be future music, but now it is happening.

从前大家只认为这是对未来的畅想， 但如今已经成为了现实。

Seven of those projects are underway.

有 7 个项目已经启动了，

We believe they can be materialized by 2025.

我们相信到 2025 年前 就能完全实现。

More than 25 other projects are ongoing.

还有其他超过 25 个项目 正在进行中。

Similarly, in hydrogen, synthetic fuels, biofuels,

在氢气、合成燃料、 生物燃料这些领域

quite a lot of things are happening.

同样也发生着众多变化。

For me to unlock the potential, the scale, the capacity,

对我来说，释放这一产业的潜能， 扩大规模，提高产量，

the competence of this industry,

解放生产力，

to put it to work,

真正做到这一切，

to drive the broad transformation of society that we really need

以此推动我们真正需要的 全面社会转型，

is what motivates me.

这个目标激励着我。

To speed it up, not to slow it down.

要加快，而不是减慢速度。

Then we need to act and use our voice

然后要行动，要发声，

in accordance with the spirit and the consistency

符合《巴黎协定》的精神和一致性。

of the Paris Agreement.

This is what inspires me.

这才是激励我的地方。

And I know, of course, believing is important,

当然，我也知道， 人们的信任很重要，

but at the end of the day,

但是到头来，

we will be judged by how we are actually delivering

评判我们工作的标准是 我们是否真正实现了

on the 1/4/20-gigaton challenge.

1/4/20 挑战。

The race is on.

战争已经打响了。

Thanks.

谢谢。

(Applause)

（掌声）

Lindsay Levin: Come back.

LL：请留步。

Bjørn Otto, thank you.

Bjørn Otto，谢谢，

Thank you very much for that.

非常感谢您的分享。

Thank you very much for that, and help us square the circle here.

感谢您精彩的演讲， 感谢您帮我们将不可能化为可能。

Because in the meantime,

那么与此同时，

so many of these companies continue to push for new exploration.

刚才提到的这些公司， 许多仍然在继续开发新油气。

How do we make sense of that with the story that you've just shared?

针对您刚才分享的故事， 请问要如何理解这一点呢？

BOS: This is a very important question,

BOS：这是一个很重要的问题，

so should you continue to explore, should you continue to produce,

因为如果要继续生产， 就一定会继续开发，

what should you do with that?

那该怎么办呢？

And I think if you just look at the numbers,

我想大家刚才也看到了一些数据，

actually the world total exploration for new oil and gas

事实上，世界范围内新的油气开发

has dropped nearly 55 percent over the last years.

近年来已经减少了将近 55%。

It's in the lowest level in 16 years, so I think things are changing.

也是 16 年以来的最低值， 所以我认为这是转变的体现。

Some companies are already guiding that they'll plan to reduce production.

一些公司已经开始 带头计划减少生产。

I think all of the companies are recognizing

我想他们都开始意识到，

that if we're going to meet the ambitions of the Paris Agreement

如果想要实现 《巴黎协定》中的决心，

or to, you know, have a habitable climate,

或者说， 如果想保有一个宜居的气候，

oil needs to decline, right?

我们就要减少石油的生产，不是吗？

So the question of timing.

那接下来就是时间的问题。

So how do you balance that?

要如何实现一个平衡？

You cannot really stop delivering a product

我们不能真的完全停止生产，

that society isn't ready to not use anymore.

因为社会还没做好准备， 我们目前仍然需要石油。

So I think if we would really like

所以，如果我们真的想要

to accelerate a decline in production of oil and gas,

加快减少油气生产

shift the demand, right?

就要先改变需求，对吧？

So make sure that we see lasting changes

所以一定要 先做出一些持续性的变化，

in much more use of electric cars,

比如大大增加对电动汽车的使用，

much more investments in renewables, etc.

大大增加对可再生能源的投资， 等等。

LL: And at the same time, of course,

LL：另外一个问题，在这一过程中

these same companies are lobbying against a lot of that change.

也存在着一些公司反对改变。

So, you know, known for disinformation and misinformation,

考虑到之前出现过 虚假信息和错误信息的问题，

could you just speak to us a little bit about transparency?

您可以再就透明度谈谈吗？

How do we build trust given that history and given the ongoing lobbying?

我们要如何再次建立信任， 说服大家去做出改变？

BOS: Yeah.

BOS：的确。

You know, I cannot take, you know, the blame for all the wrongdoings --

我不是把之前出现的 这些问题都归咎于——

LL: I'm not blaming you, I'm asking.

LL：我也不是在责备， 只是想问问。

BOS: Or you know, the pride for all the fantastic things that's been doing.

BOS：或者说，我也不是在 为之前取得的优秀成果而自满，

But you know what I can say, if you're looking ahead,

但是，我想说的是， 如果我们展望未来，

I believe that this industry needs to be much more transparent in the future.

这一产业的确需要更加透明公开。

LL: OK.

LL：好的。

BOS: I think part of that transparency is both around carbon performance,

BOS：我想，关于透明度， 我们要考虑碳绩效，

disclosure investments,

要考虑投资披露，

but also much more open around how they're using their voice

但更要考虑如何公开地发声，

and how they're participating in the debates in society.

以及如何公开地参与到社会讨论中。

Personally, I think it's --

我个人认为——

you've seen some of the reports coming out

我们在筛选协会成员时

where you're screening membership associations,

也会参考一些报告，

I believe that’s a useful step.

我认为这个做法很有用。

And I think we should expect

另外，我还认为，在转变的过程中，

and require more transparency from both this industry

这一产业需要 并且应当有更高的透明度，

and other industries in this transition.

其他产业也是如此。

LL: Thank you, thank you.

LL：谢谢。

BOS: Thank you.

BOS：也谢谢您。

(Applause)

（掌声）