A New Economic Model For Protecting Tropical Forests | Nat Keohane | TED

翻译人员: J Zhong 校对人员: Yan Li Xiao

Tropical forests are one of the world's most important carbon sinks,

热带雨林是世界上 最重要的碳汇之一,

absorbing over one fifth of the emissions

每年能够吸收五分之一的

from burning fossil fuels every year.

因燃烧化石燃料所产生的碳排放。

The latest research suggests that without them

最新的研究显示 如果没有了热带雨林的话，

the world would already be nearly one degree Celsius hotter.

全球气温至少会上升接近一摄氏度。

We can't solve climate change without tropical forests.

没有热带雨林的话， 我们不可能解决气候变化问题。

But right now,

但现在我们非但没有保护森林， 反而在大肆砍伐。

instead of protecting forests, we're cutting them down.

Already, about one sixth of the Amazon has been lost,

我们已经失去了 六分之一的亚马逊雨林了，

and some scientists fear that we're nearing a tipping point

并且许多科学家表示 我们已经接近一个临界点了，

that could mean loss of the entire forest.

我们有可能完全失去这片热带雨林。

Forests in Indonesia and Malaysia,

印度尼西亚和马来西亚的雨林，

even the vast forests of Central Africa, are under threat as well.

甚至是非洲中部的大片雨林 都岌岌可危。

And deforestation means carbon pollution.

而滥砍滥发会直接导致碳污染。

In fact, tropical deforestation worldwide accounts for almost as much emissions

事实上，世界范围内的 热带雨林砍伐带来的碳排放量

as all the world's cars and trucks combined.

几乎等同于全球的汽车 和卡车碳排放量的总和。

So losing tropical forests means losing any hope

因此，失去热带雨林 就意味着失去任何

of limiting the rise in global temperatures

限制全球气温增长

to 1.5 or even two degrees Celsius.

在 1.5 到 2 摄氏度之内的希望。

The heart of the problem is economic.

问题的关键在于经济利益。

As long as it's profitable to chop down forests for timber

如果砍伐树木还有利可图， 不论是为了获取木材

or clear them for agriculture, we'll continue to lose them.

还是开辟农业用地， 我们就很难阻止雨林被破坏。

Now, I'm not suggesting that we try to halt capitalism in its tracks.

我说这些并不是为了 阻挠资本主义发展。

We need to fix the market, not abandon it.

我们需要改变市场， 而非放弃市场。

We need a new and better economic development model

我们需要一种更新， 更好的经济发展模式，

特别是在拥有热带雨林的国家。

for tropical forest countries.

And that means changing the incentives

这就意味着要调整激励机制，

so that forests are worth more alive than dead.

让人们明白保护热带雨林 比砍伐它们的收益更大。

If we can do that,

如果我们能做到这一点的话，

we will drive investment into tropical forest protection

我们就能将投资 引导到热带雨林保护上，

while also producing the goods and services we need.

同时还能维持 产品和服务的供应。

This is the Amazon forest in Mato Grosso,

这是一片亚马逊雨林， 位于巴西的马托格罗索州，

a Brazilian state that's as large as Texas and a chunk of California combined,

这个州的面积有德克萨斯州 再加上加州的一大部分那么大，

and one of the world's largest producers of beef and soy.

它也是世界上 牛肉和大豆的最大产地之一。

Mato Grosso is now a model of economic development

马托格罗索州目前是 兼顾经济发展

and forest protection.

以及森林保护的模范。

But back in 2004,

但早在 2004 年的时候，

Mato Grosso was one of the world's largest carbon polluters

马托格罗索州是世界上 碳排放量最大的地区之一，

entirely because of tropical deforestation.

这都要归咎于森林砍伐。

Since then, deforestation is down over 85 percent.

从那以后，森林砍伐下降了 百分之八十五之多。

How?

这是怎么做到的？

Well, Mato Grosso didn't reduce emissions by shutting down agriculture.

马托格罗索州并未 为减少碳排放而叫停农业生产。

Instead, with support from the governments of Germany and Norway,

在他们得到了来自 德国和挪威政府的支持之后，

it stepped up enforcement against illegal land grabbers.

他们立法管制 非法强占土地的行为。

It empowered local communities and indigenous populations

并且赋予了地方社区 以及本土居民一定的权力

to protect their territories.

来保护他们的土地。

It worked with agricultural producers and traders across the supply chain

他们和供应链上的 农产品生产商和经销商合作

to invest in new and more sustainable production methods.

为更新且更可持续的 生产方式提供资金。

These efforts were supported by a broad array of NGOs and businesses

他们的努力得到了 许多非政府组织， 企业

and Indigenous organizations.

以及本土机构的支持。

And they worked so well

他们的工作非常出色

that when a new governor was elected in 2018,

以致于当新的领导人 在 2018 年被选出的时候，

he immediately affirmed his commitment to reducing deforestation

他首先承诺的就是 他会继续努力减少森林砍伐

and continued the state’s policies.

并坚持施行相关政策。

Because he saw how these new policies were attracting new investment

因为他认识到了这些新政策 吸引投资的能力，

and laying the foundation for sustainable growth.

它们还为可持续发展打下了基础。

If we're going to stave off climate catastrophe,

如果我们想要 延迟气候大灾难的到来的话，

the world needs many more Mato Grossos.

我们还会需要更多像 马托格罗索州一样的经济体。

Now, Mato Grosso began its bold experiment with public funding.

目前，马托格罗索州 正在大胆地尝试利用公共资金。

But if we're going to preserve and extend those gains

但如果我们想要 保存和推广这些成果，

and scale them up to jurisdictions around the world,

甚至是将它们 推广至世界上的其他辖区的话，

we need a new and more durable and much larger source of forest finance.

我们需要更新，更持久， 更大规模的森林经济来源。

And the key to unlocking that finance?

创造这种经济的关键就是

Making forests worth more alive than dead.

让保护热带雨林的 收益超过砍伐它们的收益。

That means putting a value on standing forests

这就意味着要 为保护得当的雨林增加价值，

in a way that channels new investment, hard cash, into sustainable green growth

用引导投资的方式 把现金投入到

可持续的绿色发展中， 以实现对雨林的保护，

that protects the forests

while supporting the livelihoods of people who live there.

同时还能保证当地居民的生计。

It's a development model that could make Brazil and Indonesia

这是一种能够让巴西，印尼，

and other forest nations

以及其他雨林国家

the world’s first green economic superpowers,

成为世界领先的 超级绿色经济体的发展模式，

that allows them to capture the full value of their natural resources.

能够让他们最充分地 利用他们的自然资源。

This is the goal of the LEAF Coalition.

这就是 LEAF 联盟 （LEAF Coalition）的目标。

LEAF stands for Lowering Emissions by Accelerating Forest finance.

LEAF 的含义是 用推动森林经济减少碳排放。

这是一个由十二个公司 以及三个国家组成的联盟。

It's a coalition of 12 companies and three countries

that has committed one billion dollars in finance

他们承诺在未来的五年里

for forest protection at scale over the next five years,

向雨林保护经济投入十亿美元，

one of the largest-ever public-private investments in forest protection.

这是世界上对雨林保护的 最大规模的公私合资投资之一。

That first billion dollars

这十亿美元

will pay for 100 million tons of emissions reductions,

将会减少一亿吨的碳排放，

with the prospect of many more billions to come.

同时我们预计 这将带来更大的收益。

I have a special connection to this story

我对这个故事的个人感触很深

because the idea that became LEAF

因为 LEAF 的理念 即用森林经济来减少碳排放

was drawn up on a whiteboard in my old office

是八年前我在 环境保护基金工作时

at Environmental Defense Fund over eight years ago.

在我的旧办公室的白板上设想出来的。

Now, if I had been giving this talk then,

如果换做我在当时做这个演讲的话，

it would have been purely theoretical.

它将会充斥着理论阐述。

But that was before the full success of Mato Grosso

那是因为那时候我还不知道 我们会在马托格罗索州取得巨大的成功，

and before the key building blocks that made LEAF possible

也还没有为 LEAF 联盟的建立

were put into place.

打好所有关键基础。

These three building blocks are essential to any credible market.

这三项基础对于 任何可信的市场都至关重要。

Accurate measurement,

精确的评估方法，

a standard for quality

对质量的规范，

and a platform for transactions.

以及一个交易平台。

First, credible forest transactions require accurate and precise measurement,

首先，可信的雨林经济 需要精确而严格的评估方法，

and thanks to advances in satellite data and remote sensing,

多亏了目前先进的 卫星数据和遥感技术，

we can measure the amount of carbon a forest contains

我们能够计算出 一片雨林中的含碳量

and track changes in real time.

并且对这个数字进行实时监控。

The second building block is a standard for quality

第二项基础是对质量的规范，

so that buyers of emissions reductions

我们要保证购买碳 排放减少额度的买家

can be certain they're getting the real thing.

能够对他们投资的项目放心。

At LEAF we use a new approach

在 LEAF 联盟我们 采取了一种新方法,

that focuses on the performance not of individual forests,

我们不那么注重 个别雨林区域的表现，

but of entire official jurisdictions, like a state or nation.

而是将重点放在整个辖区， 也就是一个州或是一个国家上。

这样一来， 在出现山火一类的威胁时，

It builds in buffers against risks like forest fire,

整体数据能够得到一个缓冲，

and it requires countries, forest nations,

这样做还能够促使这些雨林国家的

to increase their ambition over time.

追求随着时间拔高。

The third and final building block is a platform for transactions.

第三项，也是最后一项基础， 一个交易平台。

We created a financial intermediary called Emergent

我们创立了一个 名叫 Emergent 的金融中介机构。

that connects sellers,

这个机构能够将卖家，

forest nations that have emissions reductions that they can sell,

也就是能够出售 碳排放减少额度的雨林国家，

with buyers who include companies that are looking to make good

与买家，也就是那些想要为

on their voluntary climate commitments.

自发的环境保护 奉献力量的公司，连接起来。

You put those three building blocks together

这三项基础合在一起

and you get a reliable and robust market for forest carbon

就形成了一个可靠又生机勃勃 的雨林碳排放市场了。

that enables economies to thrive while protecting the forest.

它既能发展经济又能保护雨林。

We know it's possible.

我们知道这是可行的。

In Mato Grosso,

在马托格罗索州，

soy production more than doubled

大豆生产翻了不止一倍，

and cattle increased by over a quarter,

牛的数量增长了四分之一以上，

even as deforestation plummeted.

即使他们很大程度上 停止了砍伐树木。

So the LEAF model promises better outcomes for forests,

因此，LEAF 模式不仅 给雨林带来了更好的前景，

better outcomes for the people who live there

给当地居民带来了更好的生活，

and better outcomes for the forest nations as a whole.

也为整个雨林国家 带来了更好的未来。

But you may be asking, what's in it for the companies?

但你可能会问， 这对于那些公司有什么好处呢？

Well, now more than ever,

实际上，现在越来越多的公司认为

companies see a business case for climate action.

保护环境也成为了一种盈利手段。

Their customers are demanding it,

客户要求他们这样做，

their investors are,

还有他们的投资人，

so are their employees.

以及他们的员工也是。

And companies recognize that truly leading on climate

而且这些公司认识到 真正地要在环境保护上领先的话，

means doing two things.

意味着他们需要做两件事。

第一，减少他们经营 以及供应链中产生的碳排放。

First, reducing emissions in their own operations and supply chains.

And the companies that are part of LEAF

LEAF 联盟要求加入的所有公司

have all been required to set science-based targets

设立一个有科学依据的目标

for their own emissions.

来限制他们的碳排放量。

Second, they must contribute to the broader fight.

第二，他们必须参与 到更广泛的斗争中。

如果这些公司或是其他任何公司

And one of the most important ways that these companies,

or any company,

想要帮助解决他们公司经营 或供应链以外的环境问题的话，

can help solve climate change outside their own operations

and supply chains

is by protecting tropical forests.

最好的方式就是保护热带雨林。

So that bears repeating.

所以我应该再重复一遍。

Companies in LEAF are investing in forest protection

加入 LEAF 联盟的 公司向保护森林投资

over and above what they're doing to reduce their own emissions.

更减少了他们的碳排放。

It's not a substitute,

这不是一种置换，

it's a supplement.

而是一种补足。

Because if we're going to solve climate change,

因为如果我们想要 解决气候变化问题的话，

we need to achieve both deep cuts in fossil fuel emissions

我们不仅要大量减少 化石燃料的碳排放量，

and dramatic reductions in forest emissions.

我们还要减少伐木对吸收 碳排放造成的损失。

建立 LEAF 必需的三项基础

It took over a decade to put all of the building blocks in place

花了十多年才完全落实。

that made LEAF possible.

And the results so far are enormously encouraging.

目前来看，我们获得的 成果非常鼓舞人心。

In the next ten years,

在接下来的十年里，

if we can expand LEAF globally, we can stop tropical deforestation,

如果我们能将 LEAF 联盟推广到全球的话，

我们将断绝热带雨林砍伐，

protect some of the largest carbon sinks on the planet,

保护我们地球上最大的碳汇，

and enable forest nations and local populations to thrive and grow.

并且使雨林国家和这些国家的人口 能够繁荣发展。

All because we harness the power of the market

因为我们会借助市场的力量

让人们看到充满生机的雨林的价值，

to reflect the full value of standing forests

让人们明白保护热带雨林 比砍伐它们的收益更大。

and make them worth more alive than dead.

谢谢。

Thank you.

（掌声）

(Applause)