A New Economic Model For Protecting Tropical Forests | Nat Keohane | TED

譯者: Lilian Chiu 審譯者: Helen Chang

Tropical forests are one of the world's most important carbon sinks,

熱帶森林是世界上 最重要的碳匯之一，

absorbing over one fifth of the emissions

每年吸收超過五分之一的 燃燒化石燃料的碳排放。

from burning fossil fuels every year.

最新研究表明， 沒有熱帶森林的世界溫度

The latest research suggests that without them

the world would already be nearly one degree Celsius hotter.

就已經升高了近 1 攝氏度。

We can't solve climate change without tropical forests.

沒有熱帶森林就無法解決氣候變遷。

But right now,

但現今，我們不但沒有保護森林，

instead of protecting forests, we're cutting them down.

還在砍伐它們。

Already, about one sixth of the Amazon has been lost,

亞馬遜已經失去了 大約六分之一的森林，

and some scientists fear that we're nearing a tipping point

有些科學家擔心我們 已經接近臨界點了，

that could mean loss of the entire forest.

那意味著可能會失去所有森林。

Forests in Indonesia and Malaysia,

印尼及馬來西亞的森林，

even the vast forests of Central Africa, are under threat as well.

甚至非洲中部的大片森林 也都受到了威脅。

And deforestation means carbon pollution.

而砍伐森林意味著碳汙染。

In fact, tropical deforestation worldwide accounts for almost as much emissions

事實上，全球熱帶森林砍伐所代表的

碳排放量幾乎等同

as all the world's cars and trucks combined.

全世界的汽車和卡車加總的排放量。

So losing tropical forests means losing any hope

所以，失去熱帶森林 就意味著失去希望，

of limiting the rise in global temperatures

無法將全球溫度上升限制在 攝氏一點五度

to 1.5 or even two degrees Celsius.

或甚至兩度之內。

The heart of the problem is economic.

問題的核心在於經濟。

As long as it's profitable to chop down forests for timber

只要砍樹來製造木材 或為了農地而清除樹木

or clear them for agriculture, we'll continue to lose them.

仍是有利可圖的，

我們就會持續失去森林。

Now, I'm not suggesting that we try to halt capitalism in its tracks.

我並不是說我們要試著 突然停止資本主義。

We need to fix the market, not abandon it.

我們要解決市場的問題 而非拋棄市場。

We need a new and better economic development model

熱帶森林國家需要

新的且比較好的經濟發展模型。

for tropical forest countries.

And that means changing the incentives

那就表示要改變獎勵刺激，

so that forests are worth more alive than dead.

讓森林活著的價值比砍伐它們更高。

If we can do that,

如果我們能做到這一點，

we will drive investment into tropical forest protection

我們就能讓投資轉向保護熱帶森林，

while also producing the goods and services we need.

同時仍然可以生產 我們需要的商品和服務。

This is the Amazon forest in Mato Grosso,

這是馬托格羅索的亞馬遜森林，

a Brazilian state that's as large as Texas and a chunk of California combined,

巴西這個州的大小等同於

德州與大部分加州加起來，

and one of the world's largest producers of beef and soy.

也是世界上最大的牛肉 及大豆製造地之一。

Mato Grosso is now a model of economic development

現在的馬托格羅索是經濟發展

and forest protection.

與森林保育的模範。

But back in 2004,

但在 2004 年時，

Mato Grosso was one of the world's largest carbon polluters

馬托格羅索是世界上 最大的碳汙染源之一，

entirely because of tropical deforestation.

原因完全是因為熱帶森林砍伐。

Since then, deforestation is down over 85 percent.

和那時比，

砍伐已經下降了至少 85%。

How?

怎麼做到的？

Well, Mato Grosso didn't reduce emissions by shutting down agriculture.

馬托格羅索並不是 靠停止農業來減少排放。

Instead, with support from the governments of Germany and Norway,

反之，靠著德國及挪威政府的支援，

it stepped up enforcement against illegal land grabbers.

它推動強制措施 來對抗非法佔據土地者。

It empowered local communities and indigenous populations

它賦權給當地社區和原住民去保護

to protect their territories.

他們的領土。

It worked with agricultural producers and traders across the supply chain

它和供應鏈各段的 農業生產者及商人合作，

to invest in new and more sustainable production methods.

投資更永續的新生產方法。

These efforts were supported by a broad array of NGOs and businesses

支持這些做法的包括 各式各樣的非營利組織、企業，

and Indigenous organizations.

及原住民組織。

And they worked so well

且成果相當不錯，

that when a new governor was elected in 2018,

因此 2018 年新州長被選出時，

he immediately affirmed his commitment to reducing deforestation

他馬上就證實他承諾減少森林砍伐

and continued the state’s policies.

並繼續執行該州的政策。

Because he saw how these new policies were attracting new investment

因為他看到這些新政策 如何引來新投資，

and laying the foundation for sustainable growth.

並為永續成長奠定基礎。

If we're going to stave off climate catastrophe,

如果我們要擊退氣候大災難，

the world needs many more Mato Grossos.

世界上就需要有更多馬托格羅索。

Now, Mato Grosso began its bold experiment with public funding.

馬托格羅索的大膽實驗 是靠公共資助開始的。

But if we're going to preserve and extend those gains

但如果我們打算要 維持和延伸那些成果，

and scale them up to jurisdictions around the world,

並把規模擴大到世界各地的轄區，

we need a new and more durable and much larger source of forest finance.

我們就需要新的、更持久， 且更龐大許多的

森林資金支援來源。

And the key to unlocking that finance?

解鎖那資金支援的關鍵是什麼？

Making forests worth more alive than dead.

讓森林活著的價值比砍伐它們更高。

That means putting a value on standing forests

那就表示，要重視現存林，

in a way that channels new investment, hard cash, into sustainable green growth

做法要能把新投資、現款

導向永續的綠色成長，

that protects the forests

來保護森林，

while supporting the livelihoods of people who live there.

同時也要能支持當地居民的生計。

It's a development model that could make Brazil and Indonesia

這個發展模型可以讓巴西、 印尼，及其他森林國家

and other forest nations

the world’s first green economic superpowers,

成為全世界第一批綠色經濟超級強權，

that allows them to capture the full value of their natural resources.

使其得到天然資源的完整價值。

This is the goal of the LEAF Coalition.

這就是 LEAF（樹葉）聯盟的目標。

LEAF stands for Lowering Emissions by Accelerating Forest finance.

LEAF 是加速森林融資 以減少排放的縮寫。

It's a coalition of 12 companies and three countries

聯盟的成員包括 十二間企業及三個國家，

that has committed one billion dollars in finance

承諾會在接下來的五年間

for forest protection at scale over the next five years,

投入十億美金的資金 做大規模的森林保育，

one of the largest-ever public-private investments in forest protection.

在森林保育上，這是史上最大的

公私投資之一。

That first billion dollars

那最初的十億美金

will pay for 100 million tons of emissions reductions,

會用來支付減少 一億公噸排放的費用，

with the prospect of many more billions to come.

且將來預期還會有 更多個十億美金投入。

I have a special connection to this story

我和這故事有很特殊的連結， 因為 LEAF 的初始想法

because the idea that became LEAF

was drawn up on a whiteboard in my old office

就畫在我在環境保衛基金的 舊辦公室裡的白板上，

at Environmental Defense Fund over eight years ago.

那是八年前的事。

Now, if I had been giving this talk then,

如果我是在當時做這場演說，

it would have been purely theoretical.

就會是完全理論性質的演說。

But that was before the full success of Mato Grosso

但，那是在馬托格羅索的 全面性成功之前，

and before the key building blocks that made LEAF possible

也是在讓 LEAF 得以實現的 關鍵積木被組合起來之前。

were put into place.

These three building blocks are essential to any credible market.

任何可信賴的市場 都需要有這三塊積木。

Accurate measurement,

正確的測量、

a standard for quality

品質的標準，

and a platform for transactions.

以及交易的平台。

First, credible forest transactions require accurate and precise measurement,

首先，可信賴的森林交易 需要有正確且精準的測量，

and thanks to advances in satellite data and remote sensing,

而衛星資料和遙測上的進步

we can measure the amount of carbon a forest contains

讓我們可以測量森林所含的碳量

and track changes in real time.

並即時追蹤碳量改變。

The second building block is a standard for quality

第二塊積木是品質的標準，

so that buyers of emissions reductions

這麼一來，購買 排放減量的買家才能肯定

can be certain they're getting the real thing.

買到的是真貨。

At LEAF we use a new approach

在 LEAF，我們用的是新方法，

that focuses on the performance not of individual forests,

它著重的不是個別森林的績效表現，

but of entire official jurisdictions, like a state or nation.

而是整個正式轄區的，如州或國家。

It builds in buffers against risks like forest fire,

也有緩衝機制可以對抗 森林大火的風險，

and it requires countries, forest nations,

且會讓國家、森林國家必須要

to increase their ambition over time.

隨時間不斷提升它們的野心。

The third and final building block is a platform for transactions.

第三塊積木，也是最後一塊， 就是交易的平台。

We created a financial intermediary called Emergent

我們創造了一個金融中介， 叫做「Emergent」，

that connects sellers,

它能將賣家，即有排放減量可以

forest nations that have emissions reductions that they can sell,

拿來銷售的森林國家，連結到買家，

with buyers who include companies that are looking to make good

包括自願做出氣候承諾

on their voluntary climate commitments.

想要做善事的企業。

You put those three building blocks together

把這三塊積木組合起來，

and you get a reliable and robust market for forest carbon

就能得到可靠、穩健的森林碳市場，

that enables economies to thrive while protecting the forest.

能讓經濟繁榮，

同時還能保護森林。

We know it's possible.

我們知道這是有可能的。

In Mato Grosso,

在馬托格羅索，

soy production more than doubled

大豆產量變成至少兩倍，

and cattle increased by over a quarter,

牛則是增加了至少四分之一，

even as deforestation plummeted.

而且同時森林砍伐還大大減少。

So the LEAF model promises better outcomes for forests,

所以，LEAF 模型能保證 讓森林有更好的結果，

better outcomes for the people who live there

當地居民有更好的結果，

and better outcomes for the forest nations as a whole.

以及整個森林國家也有更好的結果。

But you may be asking, what's in it for the companies?

但各位可能會問， 對企業有什麼好處？

Well, now more than ever,

比起以往，現在更能見到

companies see a business case for climate action.

企業會針對氣候行動做商業論證。

Their customers are demanding it,

它們的客戶會要求，

their investors are,

它們的投資者及員工都在要求。

so are their employees.

And companies recognize that truly leading on climate

而企業了解到，在氣候上 要做好帶頭的工作，

means doing two things.

就表示要做兩件事。

第一，

First, reducing emissions in their own operations and supply chains.

它們自己的營運和供應鏈 都要做到減少排放。

And the companies that are part of LEAF

而參與 LEAF 的企業

have all been required to set science-based targets

都被要求要以科學為根據 設定它們自己的排放目標。

for their own emissions.

Second, they must contribute to the broader fight.

第二，

它們必須要為更廣義的 抗戰進一份心力。

And one of the most important ways that these companies,

這些企業或任何企業 可以採用一種重要的方式

or any company,

來協助解決它們自身 營運及供應鏈以外的，

can help solve climate change outside their own operations

and supply chains

氣候變遷問題，

is by protecting tropical forests.

那就是保護熱帶森林。

So that bears repeating.

這點值得再說一次：LEAF 的企業

Companies in LEAF are investing in forest protection

除了減少其自身的排放之外，

over and above what they're doing to reduce their own emissions.

也會投資森林保育。

It's not a substitute,

這不是替代方案，

it's a supplement.

而是增補方案。

Because if we're going to solve climate change,

因為如果我們要解決氣候變遷，

we need to achieve both deep cuts in fossil fuel emissions

我們需要達成兩件事：

大大減少化石燃料排放，

and dramatic reductions in forest emissions.

以及大大減少森林排放。

It took over a decade to put all of the building blocks in place

把實現 LEAF 所需要的所有 積木妥當組合起來就花了

that made LEAF possible.

超過十年的時間。

And the results so far are enormously encouraging.

而目前的結果十分振奮人心。

In the next ten years,

在接下來十年，

if we can expand LEAF globally, we can stop tropical deforestation,

如果我們能在全球擴展 LEAF，

我們就能阻止熱帶森林砍伐，

protect some of the largest carbon sinks on the planet,

保護地球上一些最大型的碳匯，

and enable forest nations and local populations to thrive and grow.

並讓森林國家及當地居民

能繁榮、成長。

All because we harness the power of the market

這全都是因為我們利用市場的力量

來反映出現存林的完整價值，

to reflect the full value of standing forests

and make them worth more alive than dead.

讓森林活著的價值比砍伐它們還高。

Thank you.

謝謝。

(Applause)

（掌聲）