How Sci-Fi Informs Our Climate Future — and What to Do Next | Zainab Usman | TED

翻译人员: Gentle Yang

We don't have to look far

我们无需高瞻远瞩，

to see how humanity's fight against climate change might play out.

就能看到人类 对抗气候变化的斗争将如何进行。

Science fiction authors from around the world,

来自世界各地的科幻小说作家，

writing from different traditions,

以不同的传统写作，

coalesce on one point.

却在同一点上达成共识：

A divided world, unable to fight the common threat.

一个分裂的世界， 无法对抗共同的威胁。

In Cixin Liu's "The Three-Body Problem" trilogy,

在刘慈欣的《三体》三部曲中，

the threat of aliens from a dying planet invading to conquer Earth

来自垂死星球的外星人 入侵征服地球的威胁

does not bring humanity together.

并不能将人类团结在一起。

Instead, a potent combination of fear,

相反，恐惧、

jingoism and competition for scarce resources among countries

神话主义和各国之间 对稀缺资源的竞争的强力结合

fractures the world into competing geoeconomic blocs

使世界分裂成了

centered around three powers:

以三个大国为中心的 相互竞争的地缘经济集团：

the United States, China and Europe.

美国、中国和欧洲。

And none of these blocs succeed in staving off the alien invasion

而且，正如你想象的那样， 这些集团都无法成功地阻止

with, as you can imagine, disastrous consequences

外星人的入侵给人类的生存

for the survival of humanity.

带来灾难性的后果。

Sorry for the spoilers about the books.

很抱歉涉及到这些书的剧透。

(Laughter)

（笑声）

In George Orwell's "1984,"

在乔治·奥威尔的《1984》中，

the world’s three superstates --

世界上三个超级大国——

Oceania, Eurasia and East Asia --

大洋洲、欧亚大陆和东亚——

fight each other in perpetuity in a disputed area

在一个主要位于非洲 和中东部分地区的争议地区

located mostly around parts of Africa and the Middle East,

长期相互争斗，

where “the rest” reside.

“其余的人”居住在那里。

The realm of fiction is years ahead in anticipating important global currents.

在预测重要的全球潮流方面， 虚构领域还有好几年的时间。

The International Monetary Fund’s “World Economic Outlook”

国际货币基金组织的 《世界经济展望》

describes an ongoing fragmentation of our global economy around four blocs:

描述了我们的全球经济围绕四个集团

The United States, China,

的持续分裂：美国、中国、

the European Union and the rest.

欧盟和其他地区。

This geoeconomic fragmentation

这种地缘经济分裂

may seriously hinder our ability to fight climate change

可能会影响抗击气候变化的集体意愿，

by affecting the collective will to fight it.

从而严重阻碍我们应对气候变化的能力。

Because no individual, no group

因为没有任何个人、任何团体、

and certainly no nation state

当然也没有一个民族国家

is self-sufficient in all of the resources,

能够在减少地球快速变暖所需的

the finances and the manpower needed to reduce the rapid warming of our planet.

所有资源、财政和人力方面实现自给自足。

We need collective action to invent and deploy at scale

我们需要集体行动，发明和大规模

the technology solutions needed to reduce greenhouse gases

部署所需的技术解决方案， 以减少富裕的高排放国的温室气体，

in wealthy, high-emitting countries

并在较贫穷的低排放国家

and to build systems in poorer, low-emitting countries

建立系统，

to help them adapt to changing weather patterns.

帮助它们适应不断变化的天气模式。

This is a three-part problem.

这一问题由三大部分组成。

Let us starts with the technoeconomic spheres of innovation.

让我们从创新技术经济领域开始。

OK, I have to confess, even that is a mouthful for me.

好吧，我必须承认， 即便如此，对我来说也是一个大问题。

So let's rephrase this a bit.

因此，让我们稍微改写一下。

Where in the world is innovation around low-carbon technologies happening?

围绕低碳技术的创新发生在世界的哪个地方？

To slow down the speed of global warming,

为了减缓全球变暖的速度，

we need to deploy clean technology solutions

我们需要围绕电池存储、

around battery storage, renewable energy generation, etc.,

可再生能源发电等，

at scale in all reaches of the world.

在世界各地大规模部署清洁技术解决方案。

But the innovation around these crucial low-carbon technologies

但是，围绕这些关键低碳技术的创新

is happening in only a handful of countries.

仅发生在少数几个国家。

The world's largest science and technology clusters,

世界上最大的科学和技术集群，

with the highest density of inventors and scientific authors,

发明家和科学作者密度最高，

are concentrated in just three regions:

仅集中在三个地区：

North America, Europe and Asia.

北美、欧洲和亚洲。

There is a danger here that the innovation and diffusion

这里存在一种危险， 即这些关键低碳技术的

of these crucial low-carbon technologies

创新和传播，

will only happen among an exclusive group of allies,

只会发生在排他性的盟国群体中，

while excluding non-allies, especially the poorer countries.

而将非盟国尤其是较穷的国家排除在外。

We are already seeing a trend

我们已经看到，

of global public energy research and development budgets

全球公共能源研发预算

concentrated within these technoeconomic spheres of innovation:

集中在这些技术经济创新领域：

China, Europe and the United States.

中国、欧洲和美国。

A second part of the problem

问题的第二部分

is that we need to prioritize consumer gains and welfare.

是我们需要优先考虑消费者的收益和福利。

The commercialization of climate mitigation

气候减缓和适应技术的商业化

and adaptation technologies

is essential for their global equitable deployment at scale.

对于其全球大规模公平部署至关重要。

The mass production of clean energy hardware,

清洁能源硬件、电动汽车、

electric vehicles,

sustainable building materials and so on

可持续建筑材料等的大规模生产

will encourage their widespread use.

将鼓励其广泛使用。

Access to large export markets will result in higher quality products

进入大型出口市场 将带来更高质量的产品，

and the creation of green jobs at home.

并在国内创造绿色就业机会。

Competition among producer firms will help push down prices for consumers

生产企业之间的竞争 将有助于降低消费者的价格，

and help raise living standards across the board,

并有助于全面提高生活水平，

including in poorer countries.

包括较穷国家的生活水平。

But if strict barriers to entry are placed on firms from rival geoeconomic blocs,

但是，如果对来自竞争对手地缘经济集团 的企业设置严格的进入壁垒，

there will be a cost to this lack of competition

这种缺乏竞争的代价

that is borne by ordinary people.

将由普通百姓承担。

Inefficiencies in the mass production of green technologies

在小型但专有的市场中拥有垄断力的企业

by firms with monopoly power in small but captive markets

在大规模生产绿色技术时效率低下，

will neither reduce greenhouse gases, nor improve people's quality of life.

既不会减少温室气体， 也不会改善人们的生活质量。

Imagine having to choose between maybe two or even one brand

想象一下，

of highly overpriced electric vehicles or solar panels,

当限制从世界各地的公司 进口数十种价格更实惠的选择时，

when restrictions are placed

on the imports of dozens of more affordable options

不得不在两个甚至一个品牌的价格过高的

from companies from around the world.

电动汽车或太阳能电池板之间做出选择。

This is the case currently with cell phones in some countries,

目前，一些国家的手机就是这种情况，

where consumers are restricted to just two highly overpriced brands,

在这些国家， 消费者只能购买两个价格过高的品牌，

or maybe even one.

甚至可能只有一个。

A third issue is that we need global standards

第三个问题是，我们需要全球标准

to govern the sourcing of strategic materials.

来管理战略物资的采购。

Strategic minerals, such as cobalt, copper,

钴、铜、镍和锂等战略矿产

nickel and lithium

are essential components for the manufacturing of solar panels

是制造我们都喜欢的太阳能电池板、

that we all love,

电动汽车、风力涡轮机

electric vehicles,

wind turbines

and other such clean energy, clean mobility hardware.

和其他清洁能源、 清洁出行硬件的重要组成部分。

These resources are nonrenewable.

这些资源是不可再生的。

They are in finite supply and they are in high demand.

它们的供应有限，需求量很大。

By 2040, for instance, the demand for lithium is projected to grow 40-fold.

例如，到 2040 年， 对锂的需求预计将增长 40 倍；

For graphite, 25-fold.

对于石墨，是 25 倍；

And for copper 21-fold.

而铜价是21倍。

These minerals are often found in poorer countries,

这些矿物通常存在于较穷的国家，

such as the Democratic Republic of Congo in Africa,

例如非洲的刚果民主共和国、

Indonesia, Myanmar and the Philippines in Asia,

亚洲的印度尼西亚、缅甸和菲律宾，

and in fragile ecosystems such as our ocean floors.

以及海底等脆弱的生态系统中。

In a world of fiercely competing geoeconomic blocs,

在 地缘经济集团竞争激烈的世界中， 获取这些稀缺战略矿产的竞赛

how will the race to access these scarce strategic minerals play out?

将如何进行？

Think about this for a second.

想一想。

The race to access strategic minerals from our ocean floors,

竞相从我们的海底获取战略矿物，

destroying precious animal and plant species.

摧毁珍贵的动植物物种。

Or a new space race to strip the moon of strategic minerals.

或者是一场剥夺月球战略矿物的新太空竞赛。

I wish all of this was far-fetched, but it really is not.

我希望这一切都牵强附会， 但事实并非如此。

In fact, the history of the Democratic Republic of Congo

事实上，刚果民主共和国的历史

is a cautionary tale of what a zero-sum race without guardrails

是一个警示故事，说明了如果没有护栏

to access precious human and natural resources could do.

以获取宝贵的人力和自然资源， 零和竞赛会带来什么后果。

It was a competition among European empires

这是一场欧洲帝国之间的竞争，

that drove the transatlantic slave trade between the 16th and the 19th centuries

推动了16至19世纪的 跨大西洋奴隶贸易，

that depopulated vast swaths of the Congo.

使刚果大片地区的人口减少。

The Shinkolobwe mine in the Congo was a source of two thirds of the uranium

刚果的辛科洛布韦矿

used in the atomic bomb

是二战期间美国于1945年

that the United States dropped on Hiroshima in 1945,

在广岛投下的原子弹

during World War II.

所用铀的三分之二的来源。

Today, the Congo is a source of cobalt

如今，刚果是钴的来源，

that makes its way to refineries in China

钴进入中国的

for the manufacturing of batteries.

炼油厂制造电池。

We need global standards to prevent the destruction of our fragile ecosystem,

我们需要全球标准来防止 破坏我们脆弱的生态系统，

such as our ocean floors, the moon and the Democratic Republic of Congo.

例如我们的海底、月球和刚果民主共和国。

Now an alternative scenario is actually possible.

现在，另一种情况实际上是可能的。

We can reject the dystopian future painted by Liu and Orwell

如果我们有意识地在关键问题上 优先采取集体行动，

if we consciously prioritize collective action

我们就可以拒绝刘和奥威尔

on the key issues that matter.

所描绘的反乌托邦未来。

To do that, we need action on three fronts.

为此，我们需要在三个方面采取行动。

Policymakers are the ones implementing radical protectionist policies

决策者是实施激进的保护主义政策

to meet short-term political imperatives.

以满足短期政治当务之急的人。

They need to think carefully about the long-term consequences

他们需要仔细考虑其人民、经济

for their people, their economies

和社会所面临的长期后果，

and their societies that will persist long after their political tenures.

这些后果将在其政治任期后 持续很长时间。

Business leaders must consider

商界领袖必须考虑分散和孤立的市场

whether atomized and insular markets are their preferred future.

是否是他们的首选未来。

And finally, for us scholars, intellectuals and activists,

最后，对于我们的学者、 知识分子和活动家来说，

we must identify and defend the values that matter most to us.

我们必须确定和捍卫 对我们最重要的价值观。

We must advance continued improvements in human well-being,

我们必须推动人类福祉的持续改善、

shared prosperity for everyone around the world,

全世界所有人的共同繁荣、

ecological balance and mutual coexistence.

生态平衡和相互共存。

Thank you.

谢谢。

(Applause)

（掌声）