Who Owns the Internet of the Future? | Ordinary Things | TED

翻译人员: Yuqian Zhang 校对人员: suya f.

The internet as you know it it is under attack

如您所知，互联网正受到攻击

and it's more fragile than you might think.

它比你想象的更脆弱。

(Dial-up sounds)

（拨号音）

In the earlier, nerdier, screechier days of the net

在网络的早期、更书呆子、更尖叫的时代

the possibilities seemed endless.

可能性似乎无穷无尽。

"Information wants to be free," said the Web 1.0 pioneers.

“信息希望是免费的”， Web 1.0 先驱者说道。

They envisioned a free internet where countless independent nodes

他们设想了一个自由的互联网， 其中有无数独立的节点

would sustain a worldwide system of instant communication,

将维持全球即时通讯系统，

entirely decentralized and therefore immune to central control or sabotage.

完全去中心化，因此 不受中央控制或破坏的影响。

Cut to today, and ehh, I think they got it about half right.

切到今天，呃，我认为他们猜对了一半。

So much for independent,

对于独立来说就这么多了，

it now seems like the internet and its infrastructure

现在看起来就像互联网及其基础设施

are owned by the same three American dudes.

属于同一个美国三个家伙。

In a world of mega-platforms,

在大型平台的世界中，

attention-sapping algorithms and mass surveillance,

分散注意力的算法和大规模监视，

we aren't wondering if information is free,

我们不怀疑信息是否免费，

we're wondering if we are.

我们想知道我们是否是。

Now with all the doom and gloom aside, I should say I love the internet.

现在抛开所有的厄运和忧郁， 我应该说我喜欢互联网。

It's where I spend most of my time.

这是我度过大部分时间的地方。

The best thing about my pandemic

关于我的流行病最好的事情

has been watching the rest of you get reduced to my level.

一直看着你们其他人沦落到我的水平。

(Laughter)

（笑声）

It's accelerated the digital world's invasion of the material one.

它加速了数字世界对物质世界的入侵。

That meeting that could have been an email

那次会议本来可以是一封电子邮件

is now an email.

现在是一封电子邮件。

Malls are being shut by search bars.

购物中心被搜索栏关闭。

Fortnite tournaments are filling national stadiums

《堡垒之夜》锦标赛在国家体育场举行

and JPEGs are selling for the price of a da Vinci.

JPEG 的售价相当于达芬奇的价格。

Whatever happens next,

无论接下来发生什么，

we're all going to be spending more time online.

我们都会花更多的时间上网。

So how do we protect what makes it great and change what makes it terrifying?

那么我们如何保护它的伟大之处 并改变它的可怕之处呢？

Well, first of all, I think we need an update.

嗯，首先，我认为我们需要更新。

Internet access is no longer a luxury.

上网不再是一种奢侈。

It is a necessity for economic and individual development.

这是经济和个人发展的必要条件。

For developing countries, increased access is a pathway out of poverty

对于发展中国家来说， 增加获取机会是摆脱贫困的途径

and enables smoother access to essential services

并能够更顺利地获得基本服务

like education and health care.

比如教育和医疗保健。

As millions in the Global South have logged on,

随着南半球数百万人登录，

the way the world accesses the Internet has completely changed.

世界访问互联网的方式已经彻底改变。

In 2011, mobile internet use accounted for just 5% of total traffic.

2011年，移动互联网 使用量仅占总流量的5%。

Today, it sits comfortably at 56%.

如今，这一比例稳居 56%。

Cheap phones and 4G have made the internet truly global,

廉价手机和 4G 使 互联网真正全球化，

but it also means that most of us

但这也意味着我们大多数人

only access it through a handful of applications.

仅通过少数应用程序访问它。

The internet is in all of your pockets

互联网就在你的口袋里

and this is a TED Talk, so it's probably on most of your wrists.

这是一场 TED 演讲，所以 大多数人的手腕上都可能有它。

Not mine. I've got a calculator.

不是我的。我有一个计算器。

(Laughter)

（笑声）

Keeps me humble.

让我保持谦虚。

That’s where we access it,

这就是我们访问它的地方，

but we wouldn’t be able to

但我们无法

if it weren't for unassuming, securely guarded buildings like this one.

如果不是像这样不起眼、 戒备森严的建筑。

Internet exchange points where bandwidth is actually produced.

实际产生带宽的互联网交换点。

If these places cease to operate, then the internet is down

如果这些地方停止运营， 那么互联网就会瘫痪

and not even the sweatiest guy in your IT department

甚至 IT 部门中最出汗的人也不是

can do anything about it.

可以做任何事情。

In 2011, the Egyptian government

2011年，埃及政府

shut down one of the country's two main exchange points,

关闭该国两个主要交换点之一，

the Ramses Exchange in Cairo.

开罗的拉美西斯交易所。

The internet was being used to organize protests

互联网被用来组织抗议活动

as users were galvanized by sharing videos of ongoing violence in real time.

因为用户通过实时分享 持续暴力的视频而受到激励。

For days, only a few government ministries and the stock market

连日来，只有少数政府部门和股市

were connected to the internet.

已连接到互联网。

It was a threat to the crumbling regime.

这是对摇摇欲坠的政权的威胁。

And when the government did fall,

当政府倒台时，

the internet got the lion's share of the credit.

互联网获得了最大的功劳。

Protests were organized without appointed leaders

抗议活动是在没有指定 领导人的情况下组织的

and with unprecedented speed.

并且以前所未有的速度。

And this is what the internet does

这就是互联网的作用

that no other technology has ever come close to achieving:

没有其他技术能够接近实现：

decentralized mass organization.

分散的群众组织。

Since then, though, regimes have gotten a lot better

但从那时起，政权已经好多了

at harnessing the internet's power for themselves.

善于利用互联网的力量为自己谋利。

In 2019, both Iran and Iraq

2019年，伊朗和伊拉克

faced potentially destabilizing protest movements,

面临潜在破坏稳定的抗议运动，

and both governments reacted by pulling the national router.

两国政府的反应是取消国家路由器。

These blackouts, though, are costly.

然而，这些停电的代价高昂。

Iraq's 11-day shutdown was estimated to cost their economy

伊拉克11天的停摆预计 将给其经济带来损失

over 2 billion dollars.

超过20亿美元。

Iran's only lasted eight days,

伊朗只持续了八天，

but the communication blackout was used to imprison organizers

但通讯中断却被用来囚禁组织者

and murder protesters in the hundreds.

并谋杀了数百名抗议者。

Video of violence made its way online once access was restored,

一旦恢复访问，暴力 视频就会在网上传播，

but by then, the protest movement had lost all momentum.

但到那时，抗议运动 已经失去了所有动力。

This year, the frontline fight for the free internet has been in Myanmar.

今年，免费互联网 的前线斗争发生在缅甸。

The military junta seized power in February

军政府于二月夺取政权

and enacted nightly internet shutdowns

并颁布了每晚关闭互联网的规定

to hinder protest and hide human rights abuses.

阻止抗议并掩盖侵犯人权的行为。

Social media was banned for months,

社交媒体被封禁数月

but activists have been successfully skirting restrictions using VPNs

但活动人士已经成功地 利用 VPN 规避了限制

to access restricted services and to document state violence.

获得受限服务并记录国家暴力。

This is guerrilla cyberwarfare in action

这是正在进行的游击网络战

and it has real world casualties.

它有现实世界的伤亡。

Mobile phones might be empowering the resistance,

手机可能会增强抵抗力，

but they are also facilitating data-driven mass surveillance.

但它们也在促进数据驱动的大规模监控。

Use the wrong platform

使用错误的平台

and the government can monitor your private messages

政府可以监控你的私人消息

and automatically delete them

并自动删除它们

before they reach their intended recipient.

在它们到达预定的接收者之前。

To me, this is like halfway between the government censoring your mail

对我来说，这就像政府审查 你的邮件的中间过程

and your thoughts.

和你的想法。

But it's not hopeless.

但这并非没有希望。

Just before the junta took over,

就在军政府接管之前，

their arrival was documented in this viral video

这段病毒视频记录了他们的到来

by a fitness influencer.

由健身影响者。

(Upbeat music)

（欢快的音乐）

That is the junta's top brass arriving in the background

那是军政府的高层在幕后到达

to depose the democratically elected leader.

废黜民主选举产生的领导人。

Now I love this video.

现在我喜欢这个视频。

It's simultaneously absurd and tragic,

这既荒谬又悲惨

which I feel like are the twin moods of the internet at the moment.

我觉得这是目前互联网上的两种情绪。

But it also shows

但这也表明

that even when the entire national infrastructure of the internet

即使整个国家的互联网基础设施

is controlled by a repressive regime,

受到专制政权的控制，

information still wants to be free.

信息仍然希望是免费的。

In the West, though, some of us are worried

然而，在西方，我们中的一些人担心

that information has gone a bit too free.

这些信息有点过于免费了。

In some cases, fact-free.

在某些情况下，与事实无关。

Disinformation and misinformation

虚假信息和错误信息

on social media

在社交媒体上

are testing the boundaries of free speech.

正在测试言论自由的界限。

The World Health Organization has called the pandemic an infodemic,

世界卫生组织将这种 流行病称为信息流行病，

with their official updates sharing a timeline

他们的官方更新共享时间表

with posts telling you to cure coronavirus by drinking bleach.

帖子告诉你通过喝 漂白剂来治愈冠状病毒。

In the UK, a conspiracy theory linking 5G to coronavirus

在英国，将 5G 与冠状病毒 联系起来的阴谋论

spread so quickly that it led to over 30 arson attacks on cell towers

蔓延速度如此之快，导致 30 多 起针对手机信号塔的纵火袭击

in March 2020 alone.

仅2020年3月。

Absurd. Tragic, once again.

荒诞。悲剧了，再一次。

But it's easy to see there's a problem.

但很容易看出有问题。

Combating disinformation is tricky

打击虚假信息很棘手

when mega-platforms have become so enormous

当大型平台变得如此庞大时

that they're nearly impossible to effectively moderate.

他们几乎不可能有效地调节。

When Facebook attempted to use machine learning

当 Facebook 尝试 使用机器学习时

to identify and remove dangerous posts,

识别并删除危险帖子，

it often couldn't tell the difference between government guidance

它通常无法区分政府指导意见

and posts meant to mimic it.

以及旨在模仿它的帖子。

Imperfect machines ultimately create imperfect machines.

不完美的机器最终 会创造出不完美的机器。

So this is a very human problem and it obviously outdates the internet.

所以这是一个非常人性化的问题， 而且它显然已经过时了。

There's always been demand for disinformation.

对虚假信息的需求一直存在。

It's based on what people want to believe.

它基于人们愿意相信的东西。

And where there is demand, there is opportunity to supply.

哪里有需求，哪里就有供应机会。

Facebook themselves will tell you

Facebook 自己会告诉你

that most disinformation on their platform is financially incentivized.

他们平台上的大多数 虚假信息都是出于经济动机。

Malicious actors who own small websites crammed with ads,

拥有塞满广告的小网站的恶意行为者，

who will pay to advertise on Facebook first to get the ball rolling.

谁会先付费在 Facebook 上做 广告才能让事情顺利进行。

Platforms might not be able to moderate everything we say

平台可能无法审核我们所说的一切

and I don’t think they should,

我认为他们不应该

but they are more than capable

但他们不仅有能力

of disrupting and regulating who pays them.

扰乱和规范支付者。

Of course, mega-platforms resist any regulation of their advertising

当然，大型平台会抵制 对其广告的任何监管

because it's where they make most of their money.

因为这是他们赚大部分钱的地方。

We all know they aren't selling us a service.

我们都知道他们不是在向我们出售服务。

They're selling access to our eyeballs.

他们正在出卖我们的眼球。

There's now a widespread distrust of the unregulated Internet.

现在人们对不受监管 的互联网普遍不信任。

In the UK, there has been popular public campaigns

在英国，开展了受欢迎的公共活动

and subsequent government proposals to connect social media accounts

以及随后政府提出的连接 社交媒体帐户的建议

to government-issued identification,

政府颁发的身份证明，

getting rid of the anonymity and holding people accountable

摆脱匿名并追究人们的责任

for all the naughty things they say online.

对于他们在网上所说的所有顽皮的话。

This is well-meaning, but it's a fucking terrible idea.

这是一个善意的想法， 但却是一个糟糕的主意。

Marginalized groups and political dissidents

边缘化群体和政治异见人士

rely on anonymity to protect their free speech,

依靠匿名来保护他们的言论自由，

and having your government ID connected to your social media account

并将您的政府身份证件 连接到您的社交媒体帐户

would leave you extremely vulnerable to phishing scams and identity theft.

将使您极易遭受网络 钓鱼诈骗和身份盗窃。

I don't share my name online or anywhere publicly,

我不会在网上或任何 地方公开分享我的名字，

not because I'm shy,

不是因为我害羞

but because I'm just curious to see how long I can keep it up.

但因为我只是好奇我能坚持多久。

Gaining notoriety but retaining anonymity

名声大噪但仍保持匿名

is a unique privilege of the information age,

是信息时代独有的特权，

so why not take advantage of it?

那么为什么不利用它呢？

The internet is difficult to tame because it was built that way.

互联网很难驯服， 因为它就是这样构建的。

This is Jon Postel,

这是乔恩·波斯特尔，

a man who once held the unofficial title of “God of the internet.”

曾经拥有“互联网之神” 这一非官方头衔的人。

Here he is posing in front of a hand-drawn map of it in 1998.

图中是他在 1998 年 手绘的地图前摆姿势。

The US government had contracted Jon

美国政府已与乔恩签约

to run the root authority of the Domain Name System,

运行域名系统的根权限，

the closest thing the internet's infrastructure has

互联网基础设施最接近的东西

to the top of its hierarchy.

到其层次结构的顶部。

Basically when you type in twitter.com

基本上当你 输入 twitter.com 时

or paymytaxes.gov,

或 paymytaxes.gov，

the root authority is what makes sure you get there.

根权限是确保您到达那里的保证。

That's an oversimplification,

这是一种过于简单化的说法

but what you need to understand

但你需要了解的是

is that whoever controls the root authority

就是谁控制了root权限

controls access to every website

控制对每个网站的访问

and theoretically could delete all of them.

理论上可以全部删除。

So when the US government asked Jon to hand control over,

所以当美国政府 要求乔恩交出控制权时，

he said no.

他说不。

And this one act of resistance would lead to the creation of ICANN,

这一抵抗行为 将导致 ICANN 的创建，

an international multistakeholder group

国际多利益相关方团体

that ensures the global internet can't be controlled

确保全球互联网无法被控制

by a single company or government.

由单一公司或政府。

Naturally, some governments have resisted this.

当然，一些政府对此表示抵制。

Notably, the Chinese government have been advocating

值得注意的是，中国政府一直倡导

for what they call internet sovereignty since 2013.

自 2013 年以来，他们一直 在维护所谓的互联网主权。

This is the idea that each country has the right

这是每个国家都有权利的想法

to control a separate version of the internet within their own borders.

在自己的边界内控制单独版本的互联网。

Of course, China's internet has worked this way for decades,

当然，中国的互联网 几十年来都是这样运作的，

but it's increasingly an attractive option to others.

但它对其他人来说越来越有吸引力。

Iran booted up their own version in 2018,

伊朗在 2018 年 启动了自己的版本，

and Russia are quietly testing theirs out.

俄罗斯正在悄悄地进行测试。

And these national firewalls are used to restrict unwanted information,

这些国家防火墙用于限制不需要的信息，

but their main priority is to crush organization

但他们的首要任务是粉碎组织

that happens outside of a party political structure.

这发生在政党政治结构之外。

And frankly, if it is disinformation that we're worried about,

坦率地说，如果我们担心的是虚假信息，

governments are the last group we should trust with regulating it.

政府是我们最不应该 信任对其进行监管的群体。

In 2018, Facebook COO Sheryl Sandberg

2018年，Facebook首席 运营官谢丽尔·桑德伯格

claimed that the company deleted over 1.3 billion fake accounts

声称该公司删除了 超过13亿个虚假账户

in just six months.

在短短六个月内。

A few hundred million of them were probably cooked up here,

大概有几亿是在这里煮出来的，

in the old Saint Petersburg office of the Internet Research Agency,

在互联网研究机构旧圣彼得堡办公室，

a private company owned by a close friend of Vladimir Putin

弗拉基米尔·普京的 密友拥有的一家私人公司

and a state-funded troll army.

以及一支国家资助的巨魔军队。

Their job is to spread disinformation and sow discord online

他们的工作是在网上 传播虚假信息并挑拨离间

with a phantom army of puppet accounts and conspiracy theories.

拥有一支由傀儡账户 和阴谋论组成的幽灵军队。

Their job isn't to bolster the argument of one side,

他们的工作不是支持一方的论点

but to inflame debate and make all sides look equally ridiculous.

而是煽动争论，让各方都显得同样可笑。

But this nihilistic genre of propaganda

但这种虚无主义的宣传风格

is incredibly weak

非常虚弱

when it's confronted with the sincerity of outsiders.

当它面对外人的真诚时。

That's why I think Alexei Navalny

这就是为什么我认为阿列克谢·纳瓦尔尼

is the most interesting person on the internet today.

是当今互联网上最有趣的人。

If you don’t know who he is, he’s a lot of things:

如果你不知道他是谁，他有很多东西：

a dissident, lawyer, criminal and YouTuber who took on the Russian government.

一位持不同政见者、律师、 罪犯和 YouTube 用户，

曾挑战俄罗斯政府。

His video on Putin's palace got 120 million views,

他关于普京宫殿的视频 获得了 1.2 亿观看次数，

which inspires professional awe and jealousy in me.

这激发了我对职业的敬畏和嫉妒。

And aside from some high-budget drone shots,

除了一些高预算的无人机拍摄之外，

there is very little new information in this video.

该视频中的新信息很少。

It's a compilation of previously available sources,

它是以前可用资源的汇编，

sometimes decades-old information.

有时是几十年前的信息。

But unlike these old sources,

但与这些旧资料不同的是，

this video reached 25 million people in 24 hours

该视频在 24 小时 内吸引了 2500 万人

and delivered this information

并传递了此信息

in an exciting, hilarious and inclusive way.

以一种令人兴奋、搞笑和包容的方式。

After surviving an assassination attempt and being sentenced to a penal colony,

在一次暗杀行动中 幸存并被判入流放地后，

Navalny is still leading resistance online.

纳瓦尔尼仍在网上领导抵抗运动。

The Kremlin have duly blocked access to this video

克里姆林宫已正式阻止对该视频的访问

and have blocked access to Smart Voting websites,

并阻止访问智能投票网站，

which Navalny has been propagating.

纳瓦尔尼一直在宣传这一点。

We might be frightened of mega-platforms,

我们可能会害怕大型平台，

but they are empowering individuals and giving outsiders an audience

但他们正在赋予个人权力 并为局外人提供观众

that dwarfs the one offered by legacy media establishments

这使传统媒体机构提供的服务相形见绌

that dominated the information market during the last century.

在上个世纪主导了信息市场。

And I know it feels like we're spending our lives

我知道这感觉就像我们 正在度过我们的一生

flicking between the same four apps,

在相同的四个应用程序之间滑动，

and that's because we are.

那是因为我们就是这样。

Around 80% of internet traffic

约 80% 的互联网流量

is captured by only a handful of companies

仅被少数公司捕获

and we're spending progressively more time with them.

我们花在他们身上的时间也越来越多。

Thanks to lockdown and home working,

由于封锁和在家工作，

internet use in the UK doubled in just one year.

英国的互联网使用量 在短短一年内翻了一番。

And all of those Netflix binges

以及所有 Netflix 的狂欢

are putting a strain on the internet's infrastructure.

给互联网基础设施带来了压力。

This is a hyperscale data center.

这是一个超大规模数据中心。

There's around 600 of them worldwide

全球约有 600 个

and over half of them are owned

其中一半以上是拥有的

by either Amazon, Microsoft, Google or Apple.

由亚马逊、微软、谷歌或苹果公司提供。

The number of these computer cabinet labyrinths

这些电脑柜迷宫的数量

has doubled in the last five years

过去五年翻了一番

to keep up with our ever-increasing demand.

以满足我们不断增长的需求。

And this has upset internet service providers

这让互联网服务提供商感到不安

who claim that these bandwidth-hogging companies

谁声称这些占用带宽的公司

aren't paying their fair share.

没有支付他们应得的份额。

And maybe they aren't.

也许他们不是。

And while I do think it is concerning

虽然我确实认为这令人担忧

that so few companies control so much of the internet,

很少有公司控制如此多的互联网，

I don't think their reign is assured.

我不认为他们的统治是有保障的。

Internal projections at Facebook

Facebook 的内部预测

show that teenagers are abandoning their platform in their droves,

表明青少年正在成群结队 地放弃他们的平台，

so much so that their American user base

以至于他们的美国用户群

could decrease by up to 45% in two years.

两年内最多可减少 45%。

I'm not saying that the problem will solve itself.

我并不是说问题会自行解决。

These platforms are powerful,

这些平台功能强大，

but only in proportion to the time and attention that we give them.

但只与我们给予他们 的时间和注意力成正比。

It's easy to forget that the internet is still in its infancy

人们很容易忘记互联网仍处于起步阶段

and new competitors are gathering in every corner.

新的竞争者正在各个角落聚集。

Then there are competitors like the super apps.

然后还有像超级应用 程序这样的竞争对手。

And these apps are interesting.

这些应用程序很有趣。

They're mobile-only, mostly an Asian phenomenon so far.

它们仅限移动设备， 到目前为止主要是亚洲现象。

They are applications that position themselves as a one-stop shop

它们是将自己定位为 一站式商店的应用程序

for all your internet-based needs.

满足您所有基于互联网的需求。

Singapore has Grab, Indonesia has GoTo,

新加坡有Grab， 印度尼西亚有GoTo，

but by far the most popular is China's WeChat.

但迄今为止最受欢迎的是中国的微信。

With over 1.3 billion active daily users,

拥有超过 13 亿日活跃用户，

WeChat has integrated itself

微信已经整合了

into the fabric of normal social life in China.

融入中国正常的社会生活。

It's your driver's license, your debit card and your phone.

这是您的驾驶执照、借记卡和手机。

It's where you pay your landlord, book flights, hotels

您可以在这里向 房东付款、预订航班、酒店

and doctor's appointments.

和医生的预约。

It has supercharged China's journey towards a cashless society,

它加速了中国迈向无现金社会的进程，

replacing coins with QR codes,

用二维码代替硬币，

with even the homeless forced to upgrade.

甚至无家可归者也被迫升级。

And it is a brilliant tool.

这是一个出色的工具。

It has brought older generations and the industrial working class online

它让老一辈人和产业工人阶级上网

and given them easier access to essential services.

并使他们更容易获得基本服务。

But it also conveniently bundles up all of your personal data,

但它也可以方便地捆绑 您的所有个人数据，

private messages and physical whereabouts for a government with backdoor access.

具有后门访问权限的政府 的私人消息和实际行踪。

The surveillance enabled by these super apps

这些超级应用程序启用的监视

is threatening to turn privacy into a relic of the 20th century.

正威胁着将隐私 变成 20 世纪的遗迹。

Because when there's only one platform, there's nowhere left to hide.

因为当只有一个平台时，就无处可藏。

The internet was built to be plural,

互联网的建立是为了复数，

to exist nowhere in particular

存在于任何特别的地方

and to be accessible everywhere.

并可随处访问。

Internet culture is global culture,

网络文化是全球文化，

arguably the first ever instance of it,

可以说是有史以来的第一个例子

and we must ensure that everyone has equal access.

我们必须确保每个人都有平等的机会。

No one in this room knows what the internet will look like

这个房间里没有人 知道互联网会是什么样子

in ten, 50 or 100 years,

十年、五十年或一百年后，

but we can be damn sure it'll be here.

但我们可以肯定它会在这里。

It's the greatest invention of all of our lifetimes,

这是我们一生中最伟大的发明

and we must ensure that it reflects the best of us.

我们必须确保它反映了我们最好的一面。

It must be open, enquiring, cooperative

它必须是开放的、探究的、合作的

and suspicious of authority.

并对权威产生怀疑。

Thank you.

谢谢。

(Applause)

（掌声）