The First-Ever Cargo Ship Powered By Green Fuel | Morten Bo Christiansen | TED

翻译人员: Jacky He 校对人员: suya f.

Lindsay Levin: Welcome, we're excited to have you here,

林赛·莱文 (Lindsay Levin)： 欢迎，非常高兴你在这里。

and one of the things we're very keen to do with Countdown

我们在“倒计时”中常干的一件事

is to follow up on stuff and find out how our promises fare.

是追踪进展，研究先前承诺的现状。

And I know that Maersk, I believe it's correct to say

我知道马士基集团 (Maersk)，

that your greenhouse gas emissions, as a global business,

您的集团的全球温室气体排放

are greater than that of Denmark, where you're based.

比你本国丹麦的排放量要高。

So you're a big part of the challenge.

所以你面临着巨大挑战。

So tell us, how's it going?

那么，目前情况如何？

Morten Bo Christiansen: Thanks for having us.

莫滕·博·克里斯蒂安森 (Morten Bo Christiansen)：

感谢你的邀请。

And yeah, so we have this dream or vision

是的，我们持着这个梦想

of decarbonizing our heavy-emitting business by 2040,

2040 年实现我们这个 高排放业务的零排放。

so over the next 17 years.

即 17 年的时段里。

And I think some find that almost ridiculously ambitious. (Laughs)

某些人觉得这几乎是荒唐的。

(笑)

We find it quite exciting.

我们认为这是激励性的。

And what is even more exciting is that we're actually starting to do it,

更振奋人心的是， 我们正在积极努力，

we're actually part of making the dream come true

正在投入实现这个梦想

and implementing solutions in our business.

在我们业务中纳入解决方案。

And let me just share some facts with you.

让我分享些数据。

So over the last two years,

在过去的两年中，

we have ordered 25 container ships that can sail on green methanol,

我们购入了 25 艘用 绿色甲醇燃料的集装箱船；

which is our choice of green fuel.

这是我们的清洁能源之选。

It's a fuel that can be made from either renewable electricity

这是能从再生电力或生物材料

or sustainable biomass.

获得的。

19 of those are being produced as we speak.

其中 19 艘现在在建造中。

The first one, we took delivery of three days ago,

第一艘三天前交货，

so it's happening.

这是切实的进展。

We also just announced the first retrofit of an existing oil vessel

我们还宣布了对于一艘油船的改装，

that can, in the future, also burn green methanol

在将来能够消耗绿色甲醇。

so we can learn how to do that.

所以我们会逐渐达到这一步。

On the land side,

在陆地上，

we are building green warehouses, we are electrifying our terminals.

我们在建造绿色仓储， 在终端采用电力，

We have 425 heavy-duty electric trucks coming into our US market,

我们的 425 辆重型电力卡车 将加入美国市场，

58 already deployed,

58 辆已经部署完毕，

some of which actually just across Lake Michigan, in Chicago.

其中一些刚刚穿过 密歇根湖，到达芝加哥。

We have 25 coming into Germany.

25 辆还将进入德国。

So, you know, lots and lots of things happening

所以，目前出现很多进展

to actually make that a dream come true that Jim spoke about two years ago.

使得吉姆两年前 提到的梦想接近实现。

LL: So, progress. This is progress?

莱文：那么，这算是进步吗？

MBC: Yeah, and it better be.

克里斯蒂安森： 嗯，大概是这样。

Global logistics account for 11 percent of all emissions,

全球货运产生总排放的 11%，

so all the trucks and ships and planes and warehouses and ports.

包括所有的卡车、轮船、 飞机、仓库和码头。

So we have work to do.

所以我们责任重大。

LL: So tell us about this first new ship.

那么向我们介绍下这艘新船。

MBC: I can do better than telling, I can actually show you.

克里斯蒂安森：我可以不限于 文字，我可以展示给你看。

I think we have a video of it.

我们有个视频。

There it is.

在这里。

So this is not a rendering, this is real steel.

这不是模型，是真货。

And we took delivery of this ship Sunday,

我们在星期天收到的这艘船；

and next Sunday,

下一星期，

it's going to do the first bunkering of green methanol

它会在韩国釜山初次

in Ulsan, in South Korea.

加上绿色甲醇。

Then, she's going to head out with our well-trained Maersk crew

之后，它将载着我们 训练充足的马士基海员

to set out for Shanghai, to pick up cargo.

前往上海去装上货物。

She's going to stop over in Singapore,

它会在新加坡经停，

in Port Said,

在塞得港，

and in Rotterdam, to pick up more green methanol,

以及鹿特丹 补充更多绿色甲烷，

because she has to make it halfway around the world

因为它得横跨半球，

to arrive in Copenhagen on September 13th for name-giving.

在 9 月 13 日到达哥本哈根 接受启动仪式，

And then, she will be deployed in the Baltic Sea for operation.

之后它会被派到波罗的海运营。

LL: I can see we've got a beautiful map of that route.

莱文：我看到这条路线的精美地图。

MBC: Yeah, and if I can --

克里斯蒂安森：嗯，我来——

This is just one ship, right?

这只是一艘船，对吧？

And, for those who know container ships,

对于那些懂集装箱船的人而言，

this is actually a rather small one.

这是体型偏小的。

But that's really not the point here.

但这不是重点。

I think the point is that this thing is real, right?

但这是实货，对吧？

It's happening.

这是正在发生的。

And not least, it is the first of many.

而且，这才只是开端。

We hear a lot of talk about exponential change,

我们经常听到“指数级变化”，

and how we need that.

和它的必要性。

And I'll give you some exponential data points.

我来给你些指数增长的例子。

So three years ago, there were none of these ships on order,

三年之前， 这些船只还未订购，

not a single one.

一艘也没。

Two years ago, there was one.

两年以前是单独一艘。

That one -- oh, sorry, this one. (Laughs)

那一艘——哦， 是这一艘。（笑道）

One year ago, there was 23;

一年以前是 23 艘，

19 of those were ours.

我们拥有 19 艘。

Today, we have 120 of these ships on order.

今天，我们采购了 120 这样的船只。

There are now five major container carriers

现在是五个集装箱货运公司

who have started ordering these ships,

在订购这些船只，

and a couple of feeder providers as well.

以及几个食材供应商。

So that's exponential change,

那么这是“指数级增长”。

but I think that's exactly what we need to shift this industry.

我认为这正是我们变革 这个行业所需要的。

LL: Yeah.

莱文：不错。

(Applause)

（掌声）

LL: And there’s kind of a chicken-and-egg problem.

莱文：还涉及一个鸡和蛋的问题。

You need the fuel, the ship, the ship design.

你需要燃料、船只和船的设计。

Are you breaking away from this?

你能摆脱这个限制吗？

Where do you start -- chicken and egg?

鸡和蛋——你该从何而起？

MBC: Yeah, I think the chicken has met the egg,

克里斯蒂安森： 嗯，是鸡带来了蛋......

or whether it's the egg that met the chicken? (Laughs)

还是蛋孵出了鸡？（笑道）

I mean, this is a supply challenge, right?

这是一个供应链的问题，对吧？

We need to scale production of green methanol, because it’s important.

我们得批量产生绿色甲醇。

It needs to be green methanol,

必须是绿色甲醇，

not the conventional methanol made from fossil fuels.

而非从石油获取的普通甲烷。

And that really is a challenge.

这是切实的挑战。

Just to put that, a bit, into perspective --

细化地讲，

we have 740 ships at Maersk.

我们来马士基有 740 艘货船。

If all of those were to sail on so-called e-methanol,

假设全部都利用“新代甲醇”，

so methanol made from renewable electricity,

即通过再生电力产生的甲醇，

we would need somewhere between five and six percent

我们将需要今天全世界产生的

of all wind and solar produced today in the entire world.

风能与太阳能的 5% 到 6%。

LL: Just for your business? MBC: Yes.

莱文：只为你的集团？ 克里斯蒂安森：是的。

MBC: So I think that the magnitude of this is almost mind-blowing.

克里斯蒂安森： 我认为这个级别是很震撼的。

But I think that's just all the more reason to get started.

但这也是为什么我们该行动起来。

LL: So that scale, that magnitude, very daunting --

莱文：这种程度， 这种级别，非常唬人——

is that holding people back, different players in the industry?

这在劝退人们， 行业里不同的集团吗？

It's just too much?

这是否过于遥远了？

MBC: I think there's, of course, the enormity of the challenge,

克里斯蒂安森：我觉得 这个挑战肯定是艰巨的，

I think that goes for any part of decarbonization, right?

减碳的任何环节都是这样，对吧？

But I think, for shipping, particularly,

但我认为特别涉及到船运，

there’s a lot of uncertainty around

现在相当不确定

what’s the winning technology, right?

什么科技会胜出，对吧？

Because there's this green methanol, that's one solution.

因为像绿色甲醇， 这是一个方案。

You have green ammonia, you have green methane,

以及绿色氨气、 绿色甲烷。

you have liquified hydrogen,

再加上液化氢，

electrification, even nuclear.

电气化，甚至是原子能。

So there's this fear, I think,

我觉得大家害怕

of making the wrong bet or getting it wrong, somehow.

下错赌注，把事情搞砸。

Of course, in an ideal world,

当然了，在理想的世界里

we would spend a decade figuring out all the pros and cons

我们会花个十年探讨 各个方案的优缺点，

and what is best.

得出最佳结论。

But we need to address this problem now, right?

但我们得现在解决这个问题，对吧？

And honestly, there is no magic bullet here.

事实上，不存在所谓的完美方案。

All these solutions can work, I think they will work.

这些都是可行的， 我觉得它们会奏效的。

They all have their pros and cons.

它们都存在优缺点。

But we just need to get on with it.

但我们得投入实现。

LL: And you've chosen methanol as your fuel of choice.

莱文：而你选择甲醇作为燃料。

Why is that?

这是为什么？

MBC: It's very simple -- it works, and it works now.

克里斯蒂安森：这很简单—— 它是起效的，现在就行。

(Laughter)

（笑声）

(Applause)

（掌声）

LL: It works, it works now,

莱文：它是可用的，现在就行，

and these green fuels are still more expensive,

但这些绿色燃料仍然较昂贵，

because we've got to build up the volume.

因为我们得达到批量生产。

Talk to us a little bit about the price issues.

跟我们讲讲价格的顾虑。

MBC: It almost sounds too easy, right?

克里斯蒂安森： 这听起来太容易了，不是吗？

And it really isn't, because one of the big challenges

而并不是这样，因为最大挑战之一

is, of course, that these fuels are more expensive.

是这些燃料的高成本。

So if we take fuel at the current oil price,

考虑到目前的石油价格，

green methanol can easily be twice, even three times the price.

绿色甲醇可以是它的两三倍。

So that's of course quite a bit.

这是相当高的。

And of course, somebody needs to pay the bill.

总归得有人付这笔钱。

Who needs to pick up that bill?

谁该来承担呢？

At the end of the day, I guess it's all of us, as consumers,

到最后，我觉得这是 我们大家，消费者，

because it’s our consumption that creates the emissions.

因为是我们的消费产生排放。

And the interesting thing

而有趣的是，

is, when you check it through the value chain,

当你把它分布到市场中，

it really dilutes.

这很快稀释了。

So if you double up the fuel price, that sounds crazy, right?

假设你把燃料成本加倍， 这听起来不可思议，对吧？

Well, that means the freight rate goes up 10 to 15 percent.

这导致运输成本 增加 10% 到 15%。

And if you take a pair of shoes or an item like that,

如果是一双鞋这样类似的货品，

that's, like, five cents.

额外的成本是五分左右。

And there's actually a quite interesting study

波士顿咨询集团

by the Boston Consulting Group

挺有意思的一项报告

that shows that most consumer products can be made with a net-zero footprint,

显示大多数消费品 可以实现零碳足迹，

so no emissions in production,

即生产过程中零排放，

at a cost of somewhere between one and four percent.

靠 1% 到 4% 的价格抬升。

So that's really what we are talking about --

这是我们所探讨的——

LL: So that doesn't sound too bad.

莱文：这听起来并不糟。

MBC: No, I think many of us could afford that, right?

克斯蒂里安森：嗯， 我们许多人能负担得起，对吧？

I mean, it's one year's inflation, it's really what it is.

这是一年的通胀水平， 差不多这样。

But the problem is that,

但问题是，

if all the cost gets stuck at one place in the value chain,

假设全部的成本 集中在消费链的一环，

then things don't move, right?

贸易便会停滞，对吧？

If you're a fuel producer,

假如你是燃料生产方，

and you're producing a product

你的产品

that is two or three times the price of your fossil competitor,

是你化石燃料对手 标价的二到三倍，

few would dare do that,

很少人会这样做生意，

and nobody would get any financing for it, right?

没人会得到资助，对吧？

So these fuel producers,

那么这些燃料生产方，

they look to the shipowners to make long-term offtake agreements,

它们会寻找船运公司 签订长期承购协议，

and we do that.

我们会加入其中。

I mean, last year at Maersk, we spent eight billion dollars on fuel,

马士基仅仅去年 便在燃料上花了八十亿美元，

so doubling or tripling that,

再变为双倍、三倍，

that’s a pretty scary outcome.

这是挺吓人的结果。

So we need to figure out how we can then turn to our customers,

我们得决定怎么面向客户，

and have them pay a green premium,

让它们付绿色的价码。

and they do.

它们也欣然愿意。

So I think that's really what we need to do,

这是我们得实际操作的。

we need to get these partnerships across the value chain

我们得横跨消费链建立起 这些合作关系，

so that we stand together and we just de-risk the thing.

统一战线， 降低全体上的风险。

Because when you de-risk, speed goes up.

因为当你降低风险， 速度便会提升。

And what we have done so far is we have talked to a lot of developers,

我到目前为止与许多业内先驱联系，

we have signed up for the ship that we just saw,

我们签下了刚才所见的这艘船，

10 years worth of fuel for that one.

订了 10 多年的燃料。

And for the other ones,

对于其他那些，

we have around 30 percent on letters of intent

大概 30% 在我们到 2023 年

for our expected consumption by 2030.

预期消耗的意向书中。

So that's how we are trying to lean out and lend our balance sheet.

这是我们维持长期财政稳定的方法。

LL: So you're giving confidence to the value chain.

莱文：你在给消费链带来信心。

MBC: We're basically taking out commercial risk on these projects.

克斯蒂里安森：我们本质上 在承担这些项目的商业风险。

And then we, of course, need to turn to our customers

当然，我们得转向客户，

to figure out how they can either pass that onto us as consumers

议定它们怎么把风险 下派给我们消费者，

or somehow create value from that.

或是从中盈利。

That's really the challenge we have.

这是我们目前的挑战。

LL: Morten, thank you very much.

莱文：莫滕，非常感谢。

Great to listen to you,

很高兴聆听你，

and we wish you well with the rest of the journey.

我们祝你未来旅途好运。

MBC: Thank you. LL: Thank you very much.

克斯蒂里安森：谢谢你。 莱文：再次感谢。