The First-Ever Cargo Ship Powered By Green Fuel | Morten Bo Christiansen | TED

譯者: Jennifer Du 審譯者: Shelley Tsang 曾雯海

Lindsay Levin: Welcome, we're excited to have you here,

林賽·萊文(Lindsay Levin)：歡迎， 我們很高興你能來到這裡，

and one of the things we're very keen to do with Countdown

我們在“倒計時”中常做的事情

is to follow up on stuff and find out how our promises fare.

是跟進事情 並了解我們的承諾如何兌現。

And I know that Maersk, I believe it's correct to say

我知道馬士基集團 (Maersk)，

that your greenhouse gas emissions, as a global business,

作為全球性企業， 您集團的溫室氣體排放量，

are greater than that of Denmark, where you're based.

比您本國丹麥的排放量還要高。

So you're a big part of the challenge.

所以您面臨著重大挑戰。

So tell us, how's it going?

那麼請告訴我們，目前情況如何？

Morten Bo Christiansen: Thanks for having us.

莫滕·博·克里斯蒂安森（Morten Bo Christiansen）： 感謝您的邀請。

And yeah, so we have this dream or vision

是的，所以我們有這樣一個願景

of decarbonizing our heavy-emitting business by 2040,

到 2040 年讓我們這個高排放的業務實現零排放。

so over the next 17 years.

也就是在接下來的17年以內。

And I think some find that almost ridiculously ambitious. (Laughs)

有些人覺得這幾乎是荒唐的。（笑）

We find it quite exciting.

我們覺得這非常令人興奮。

And what is even more exciting is that we're actually starting to do it,

更令人興奮的是， 我們實際上已經開始這樣做了

we're actually part of making the dream come true

正在投入實現這個願景

and implementing solutions in our business.

並在我們的業務中納入解決方案。

And let me just share some facts with you.

讓我與您分享一些事實。

So over the last two years,

在過去的兩年中，

we have ordered 25 container ships that can sail on green methanol,

我們已經訂購了25 艘綠色甲醇燃料的貨櫃船；

which is our choice of green fuel.

這是我們選擇的清潔能源。

It's a fuel that can be made from either renewable electricity

這是一種用再生電力或生物材料

or sustainable biomass.

製成的能源。

19 of those are being produced as we speak.

其中 19 個現在正在生產。

The first one, we took delivery of three days ago,

第一艘，我們已經在三天前提貨了，

so it's happening.

所以這是切實的進展。

We also just announced the first retrofit of an existing oil vessel

我們也剛宣布了對一艘現有用油的貨櫃船的改裝，

that can, in the future, also burn green methanol

可以在未來也使用綠色甲醇

so we can learn how to do that.

所以我們會逐漸實現這一願景。

On the land side,

在陸地上，

we are building green warehouses, we are electrifying our terminals.

我們正在建造綠色倉庫， 使我們的終端電氣化。

We have 425 heavy-duty electric trucks coming into our US market,

我們有 425 輛重型電動卡車 將進入美國市場，

58 already deployed,

58 已部署完畢，

some of which actually just across Lake Michigan, in Chicago.

其中一些實際上剛剛穿過 芝加哥的密西根湖。

We have 25 coming into Germany.

還有 25 輛會進入德國。

So, you know, lots and lots of things happening

所以，你知道，目前有很多進展

to actually make that a dream come true that Jim spoke about two years ago.

使吉姆兩年前提到的願景接近實現。

LL: So, progress. This is progress?

LL：所以，有進展。這算是進展嗎？

MBC: Yeah, and it better be.

MBC：是的，大概是這樣。

Global logistics account for 11 percent of all emissions,

全球貨運佔總排放量的 11%，

so all the trucks and ships and planes and warehouses and ports.

包括所有的卡車、輪船、飛機 以及倉庫和港口。

So we have work to do.

所以我們責任重大。

LL: So tell us about this first new ship.

LL：請為我們介紹一下這第一艘新船吧。

MBC: I can do better than telling, I can actually show you.

MBC：我可以不限於文字， 我可以展示給你看

I think we have a video of it.

我們有一個影片。

There it is.

就是這個。

So this is not a rendering, this is real steel.

這不是一個渲染圖， 這是真傢伙。

And we took delivery of this ship Sunday,

我們在這週日接收了這艘船，

and next Sunday,

下週日，

it's going to do the first bunkering of green methanol

它在韓國蔚山第一次

in Ulsan, in South Korea.

加綠色甲醇。

Then, she's going to head out with our well-trained Maersk crew

之後，她就要載著我們訓練有素的馬士基船員

to set out for Shanghai, to pick up cargo.

出發前往上海裝上貨物。

She's going to stop over in Singapore,

她會在新加坡經停，

in Port Said,

在塞得港,

and in Rotterdam, to pick up more green methanol,

接下來在鹿特丹， 補充更多綠色甲醇，

because she has to make it halfway around the world

因為她得繞過半個地球，

to arrive in Copenhagen on September 13th for name-giving.

於 9月13日抵達哥本哈根，接受啟動儀式。

And then, she will be deployed in the Baltic Sea for operation.

之後，她將被部署 在波羅的海進行作業。

LL: I can see we've got a beautiful map of that route.

LL：我看到那條路線的精美地圖。

MBC: Yeah, and if I can --

MBC：是的，讓我來說說——

This is just one ship, right?

這只是一艘船，對吧？

And, for those who know container ships,

而且，對於那些了解貨櫃船的人來說，

this is actually a rather small one.

這實際上是一個相當小的船。

But that's really not the point here.

但這不是重點。

I think the point is that this thing is real, right?

我認為重點是 這東西是真的嗎？

It's happening.

這真的正在發生。

And not least, it is the first of many.

更重要的是，這只是開始。

We hear a lot of talk about exponential change,

我們常常聽到“指數級變化”，

and how we need that.

以及它的必要性。

And I'll give you some exponential data points.

我來給你一些指數增長的例子。

So three years ago, there were none of these ships on order,

三年前， 完全沒有這些船的訂單，

not a single one.

一個都沒有。

Two years ago, there was one.

兩年前，有一個。

That one -- oh, sorry, this one. (Laughs)

那個——哦，對不起，就是這個。 （笑）

One year ago, there was 23;

一年前，有 23 個；

19 of those were ours.

其中 19 個是我們的。

Today, we have 120 of these ships on order.

而今天，我們訂購了 120 艘這種船。

There are now five major container carriers

現在有五個 主要貨櫃運輸公司

who have started ordering these ships,

已經開始訂購這些船隻，

and a couple of feeder providers as well.

以及几个食材供应商。

So that's exponential change,

所以這就是“指數级增长”，

but I think that's exactly what we need to shift this industry.

我認為這正是我們变革这个行业所需要的。

LL: Yeah.

LL：是的。

(Applause)

（掌聲）

LL: And there’s kind of a chicken-and-egg problem.

LL： 还涉及一个是先有雞還是先有蛋的問題。

You need the fuel, the ship, the ship design.

你需要燃料，船只和船舶設計。

Are you breaking away from this?

你能擺脫這個限制嗎？

Where do you start -- chicken and egg?

先有雞還是先有蛋？

MBC: Yeah, I think the chicken has met the egg,

MBC：嗯，是雞带来了蛋，

or whether it's the egg that met the chicken? (Laughs)

还是是蛋孵出了雞？ （笑）

I mean, this is a supply challenge, right?

我的意思是，這是供應链的问题，對吧？

We need to scale production of green methanol, because it’s important.

我們需要規模化生產 綠色甲醇，因為它很重要。

It needs to be green methanol,

必须是綠色甲醇，

not the conventional methanol made from fossil fuels.

而不是傳統的 由化石燃料製成的甲醇。

And that really is a challenge.

這確實是一個挑戰。

Just to put that, a bit, into perspective --

具體來說——

we have 740 ships at Maersk.

我們馬士基擁有 740 艘貨櫃船。

If all of those were to sail on so-called e-methanol,

如果全部都使用新的綠色甲醇，

so methanol made from renewable electricity,

即通過再生電力製造的甲醇，

we would need somewhere between five and six percent

我們需要當今全世界生產的所有

of all wind and solar produced today in the entire world.

風能和太陽能的5%到6%。

LL: Just for your business? MBC: Yes.

LL：只是您的集團？ MBC：是的。

MBC: So I think that the magnitude of this is almost mind-blowing.

MBC：所以我認為這個用量是很震撼的。

But I think that's just all the more reason to get started.

但我認為這也是為什麼我們應該行動起來。

LL: So that scale, that magnitude, very daunting --

LL：這種規模，這種量級， 非常令人畏懼——

is that holding people back, different players in the industry?

這會是阻礙業界不同的參與者 前進的因素麼？

It's just too much?

是否過於困難重重？

MBC: I think there's, of course, the enormity of the challenge,

MBC：我認為 這個挑戰肯定是艱鉅的，

I think that goes for any part of decarbonization, right?

我認為任何環節要減少碳排放都是這樣的，對吧？

But I think, for shipping, particularly,

但我認為，特別是對於航運來說，

there’s a lot of uncertainty around

有很多不確定性

what’s the winning technology, right?

什麼技術能夠勝出，對吧？

Because there's this green methanol, that's one solution.

因為像綠色甲醇， 這是一種解決方案。

You have green ammonia, you have green methane,

還有綠色氨， 以及綠色甲烷，

you have liquified hydrogen,

再加上液化氫，

electrification, even nuclear.

電氣化，甚至是核能。

So there's this fear, I think,

所以我認為大家害怕

of making the wrong bet or getting it wrong, somehow.

下錯賭注，把事情搞砸。

Of course, in an ideal world,

當然了，在理想的世界裡，

we would spend a decade figuring out all the pros and cons

我們會花十年的時間來弄清楚 所有方案的優缺點，

and what is best.

找出最佳結論。

But we need to address this problem now, right?

但我們得現在就解決這個問題，對吧？

And honestly, there is no magic bullet here.

老實說，不存在所謂的完美方案。

All these solutions can work, I think they will work.

所有這些解決方案都是可行的， 我認為他們都會奏效。

They all have their pros and cons.

它們都有各自的優點和缺點。

But we just need to get on with it.

但我們需要持續做下去。

LL: And you've chosen methanol as your fuel of choice.

LL：而您選擇了甲醇作為燃料。

Why is that?

這是為什麼？

MBC: It's very simple -- it works, and it works now.

MBC：這很簡單—— 它是可用的，現在就能用。

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

(Applause)

（掌聲）

LL: It works, it works now,

LL：它是可用的，現在就能用，

and these green fuels are still more expensive,

但這些綠色燃料仍然比較昂貴，

because we've got to build up the volume.

因為我們得達到批量生產。

Talk to us a little bit about the price issues.

跟我們聊聊價格的問題。

MBC: It almost sounds too easy, right?

MBC：這聽起來太簡單了，對吧？

And it really isn't, because one of the big challenges

而事實並非如此， 因為最大的挑戰之一

is, of course, that these fuels are more expensive.

是這些燃料更貴。

So if we take fuel at the current oil price,

考慮到目前的油價，

green methanol can easily be twice, even three times the price.

綠色甲醇可以是它的兩倍， 甚至是三倍的價格。

So that's of course quite a bit.

這當然是相當高的。

And of course, somebody needs to pay the bill.

當然，總得有人支付這筆錢。

Who needs to pick up that bill?

那麼誰來承擔呢？

At the end of the day, I guess it's all of us, as consumers,

歸根究底， 我覺得是我們所有人，我們消費者，

because it’s our consumption that creates the emissions.

因為這是我們的消費產生的排放。

And the interesting thing

而有趣的是

is, when you check it through the value chain,

當你把這些成本分佈到整個價值鏈，

it really dilutes.

它確實稀釋了。

So if you double up the fuel price, that sounds crazy, right?

所以假設你把燃油價格提高一倍， 這聽起來很瘋狂，對吧？

Well, that means the freight rate goes up 10 to 15 percent.

嗯，這就導致運輸成本 上漲 10% 至 15%。

And if you take a pair of shoes or an item like that,

如果是一雙鞋或類似的貨品，

that's, like, five cents.

額外的成本相當於五美分。

And there's actually a quite interesting study

實際上有一項有意思的報告

by the Boston Consulting Group

由波士頓咨詢集團提供的，

that shows that most consumer products can be made with a net-zero footprint,

顯示大多數消費品 可以實現淨零足跡，

so no emissions in production,

即生產過程中零排放，

at a cost of somewhere between one and four percent.

僅需提高1%到4%的價格。

So that's really what we are talking about --

這正是我們在探討的——

LL: So that doesn't sound too bad.

LL：這聽起來不算太多。

MBC: No, I think many of us could afford that, right?

MBC：嗯，我想我們很多人 負擔得起，對吧？

I mean, it's one year's inflation, it's really what it is.

我的意思是，這是一年的通貨膨脹水平， 差不多是這樣。

But the problem is that,

但問題是，

if all the cost gets stuck at one place in the value chain,

如果所有成本都集中在 在價值鏈的某一位置，

then things don't move, right?

那麼就會卡主了，對吧？

If you're a fuel producer,

如果您是燃料生產商，

and you're producing a product

您正在生產一種產品

that is two or three times the price of your fossil competitor,

價格化石燃料競爭對手標價的兩到三倍，

few would dare do that,

很少人會這樣做生意，

and nobody would get any financing for it, right?

沒有人能夠拿到投資，對吧？

So these fuel producers,

所以這些燃料生產商，

they look to the shipowners to make long-term offtake agreements,

他們期待船東 簽訂長期承購協議，

and we do that.

我們就是這樣做的。

I mean, last year at Maersk, we spent eight billion dollars on fuel,

我的意思是，馬士基僅僅在去年， 就在燃料上花了八十億美元，

so doubling or tripling that,

所以再加倍或三倍，

that’s a pretty scary outcome.

這是一個非常可怕的結果。

So we need to figure out how we can then turn to our customers,

所以我們得決定怎麼面對我們的客戶，

and have them pay a green premium,

讓他們支付綠色溢價，

and they do.

他們也願意接受。

So I think that's really what we need to do,

所以我認為這確實是 我們需要做的，

we need to get these partnerships across the value chain

我們需要橫跨整個價值鏈建立起 這些合作關係，

so that we stand together and we just de-risk the thing.

讓我們站在一起 降低整體風險。

Because when you de-risk, speed goes up.

因為當你降低風險時，速度就會加快。

And what we have done so far is we have talked to a lot of developers,

我們迄今為止已經和很多業內先驅談過，

we have signed up for the ship that we just saw,

我們已經簽下了剛剛看到的這艘船

10 years worth of fuel for that one.

相當於 10 年的燃料。

And for the other ones,

而對於其他那些，

we have around 30 percent on letters of intent

大約 30% 在我們到 2030 年

for our expected consumption by 2030.

預期消費量的意向書中。

So that's how we are trying to lean out and lend our balance sheet.

這就是我們努力擺脫困境 並維持財政穩定的方法。

LL: So you're giving confidence to the value chain.

LL：所以您給價值鏈帶來信心。

MBC: We're basically taking out commercial risk on these projects.

MBC：我們本質上是在承擔 這些項目的商業風險。

And then we, of course, need to turn to our customers

然後我們當然 需要求助於我們的客戶

to figure out how they can either pass that onto us as consumers

議定他們如何能夠 將其傳遞給我們消費者，

or somehow create value from that.

或以某種方式從中創造盈利。

That's really the challenge we have.

這確實是我們面臨的挑戰。

LL: Morten, thank you very much.

LL：莫滕，非常感謝。

Great to listen to you,

很高興與您對談，

and we wish you well with the rest of the journey.

我們祝你未來一切順利。

MBC: Thank you. LL: Thank you very much.

MBC：謝謝。 LL：非常感謝。