The Billion-Dollar Pollution Solution Humanity Needs Right Now | Stacy Kauk | TED

翻译人员: Yifan Jia 校对人员: Yip Yan Yeung

How much money do we need

需要投入多少资金

in order to remove a significant amount of carbon dioxide

才能将大量的二氧化碳 从我们的大气层中移除呢？

out of our atmosphere?

And what are the mechanisms that we should use

我们又应该以什么样的方式 来利用这笔资金呢？

to spend all of that money?

I'm the head of sustainability at Shopify,

我是 Shopify 公司的 可持续发展负责人。

a company you may not know but you might interact with every day

你可能没听说过我们公司， 但搞不好你每天都在和我们打交道，

because our technology powers millions of online retailers.

因为我们为数百万 在线零售商提供技术支持。

In 2019,

在 2019 年， 我们想要成为一家零碳企业，

we wanted to become a carbon-neutral company

and be accountable for all of our historical emissions.

也要对我们 先前所有的排放量负责到底。

Instead of buying typical, traditional carbon offsets

我们没有按惯例购买碳抵消额度，

that simply pay someone else

单单通过付钱来阻止别人 造成和我们一样的污染，

to not pollute as much as we already had,

we actually wanted to delete our emissions.

而是想要彻底抵消我们造成的排放。

It quickly became obvious that carbon removal,

显然，碳去除技术

those solutions that pull carbon dioxide out of the atmosphere

这类将二氧化碳从大气中捕获 并安全储存的解决方案，

and store it safely,

were very expensive and in short supply.

成本极高而且还很稀缺。

So to kick-start this almost non-existent market,

因此，为了启动 这个几乎不存在的市场，

we launched our sustainability fund

我们发起了可持续发展基金，

and committed to spend a minimum of five million dollars every year

并承诺每年至少将 500 万美元

on the most promising solutions.

投资在最有潜力的碳中和方案上。

Now, obviously we need deep emissions reductions,

毋庸置议，我们现在需要的

I'm not disputing that.

显然是深度减排。

But alongside this,

但与此同时，

we also need to build the world's capacity

我们也需要让全球

to pull ten gigatons of carbon dioxide out of the sky,

具备每年从大气 捕获 100 亿吨二氧化碳的能力，

every year, by 2050.

在 2050 年前就要实现。

Now, at the time, five million was a big number,

在 2019 年， 五百万是一笔大数目，

and it was a really big number to spend on something in its infancy.

更别说这笔钱只是用于开发初期上。

And we thought we were doing something significant.

起初我们觉得这项事业很了不起，

But then we totally hit a wall.

但现实给了我们当头一棒。

We weren't even thinking at the right scale.

因为我们连规模都没有考虑对。

We need to build massive facilities

按计划，我们应兴建大型处理厂，

capable of pulling one million tons of carbon dioxide out of the air

每年从大气 捕获 100 万吨二氧化碳

这还只是单座处理厂的处理量，

every year,

and we need thousands of them.

而我们需要数千座这样的处理厂。

And in order to do that,

要想实现这个目标，

we need project financing of about one billion dollars per plant.

需要为每座处理厂注资约十亿美元。

Now, to put that into perspective,

要说这是个什么概念的话，

our five-million-dollar annual budget

那我们每年 500 万美元的预算，

would probably buy about 10,000 tons of carbon removal every year.

大概每年只能固碳 1 万吨。

That's tiny.

少得可怜。

That's only one percent of the annual capacity

和处理厂每年所需的处理量比起来，

of the size of the facilities we need.

仅有百分之一。

And like I said,

而且，我还说过

we need thousands of them.

我们需要数千座这样处理厂。

So we've learned that in order to move the dial on climate

所以呢，要是真想改善气候环境

and to build the necessary infrastructure,

并且兴建必要的基础设施，

we need more money,

我们需要更多资金，

way more money.

现有资金远远不足。

And in order to do that,

筹集资金

we need collaborations

就需要各方协作，

and we need structures that leverage the significant power of capital

也需要建立一种机制，将资本的伟力

to create even bigger effects.

最大化利用，来实现更优结果。

So now I'd like to tell you about what we did next.

那么，现在我就讲讲 我们接下来做了些什么。

It's a mechanism that we launched alongside four other companies.

我们与四家公司联合 建立了一种机制。

It's an AMC.

叫做 AMC。

AMC stands for Advance Market Commitment,

也就是预先市场承诺机制，

and this one’s designed to help guarantee a future market

我们用这一机制来保障未来的

for carbon removal by trying to de-risk the R and D investment

碳去除市场， 具体则是帮助控制研发投资

and capital expenditures needed to scale carbon removal

和资本支出的风险， 以保障碳去除的规模化应用

and grow that industry.

以及行业的整体发展。

Now, why I think this is such a promising approach

为什么我觉得这种方案更有希望呢？

is because it's not new.

是因为 AMC 不是什么新奇的概念，

AMCs have been used in the past in the health care sector

过去曾用于医疗卫生领域

to encourage and accelerate the development of vaccines.

以激励和加速疫苗研发。

It worked by essentially guaranteeing

其原理是基本确保了

the economic viability of production by setting a price in advance.

疫苗生产在经济上的可行性， 因为预先定下了价格。

This meant that companies could justify the R and D resources

这样一来， 疫苗公司研发疫苗所投入的资源

needed to develop the vaccine

就有了保障，

as well as the costs associated with bringing it to market.

疫苗产品 进入市场的成本也有据可依了。

They just needed to know that someone was going to buy their product

这些公司其实只需要心里有底 有人会以相对确定的价格

at a set price.

购买他们的产品。

So this AMC borrows the idea

AMC 借用了

of a purchase guarantee

购买担保的逻辑，

to try to accelerate the development

来加速碳去除的研发

and scaling of carbon removal.

和规模化应用。

And to do that, we set up a fund,

为此，我们设立了一个基金，

and it's a pretty big fund.

其规模相当可观。

It’s nearly one billion dollars,

资金总额接近 10 亿美元，

and it's called Frontier.

名为“前沿 (Frontier)”。

But Frontier has to overcome some significant differences

但前沿基金仍需 克服疫苗研发和碳去除

between vaccine development and carbon removal.

之间的诸多显著差异。

First, vaccine development has been done for a long time

首先，疫苗研发由来已久，

and we've largely worked out the supply chain

我们已经谙熟相关的供应链

and infrastructure challenges,

和基础设施问题，

the operational issues and the policy definitions.

了解实际运营和有关政策的要点。

But for carbon removal,

碳去除则不然，

this is essentially still a new industry that faces all of these hurdles.

这仍是一个新兴产业， 以上问题都是难点。

For example,

就比如，

a lot of carbon removal technologies rely on clean power to operate

很多碳去除技术手段 都依赖清洁能源，

because if they don't,

否则的话，

they'll emit more carbon dioxide than they capture.

捕获的二氧化碳 还赶不上运行过程中的排放量。

But clean power does not exist today at the scale and distribution we need.

但清洁能源现在的供应 还跟不上我们的需求。

Second, vaccines are developed by established companies

第二，疫苗研发， 通常是大公司在做，

with deep R and D teams and experience.

他们有卓越的研发团队和丰富的经验。

Whereas today,

但现在，

carbon removal largely exists on paper, in the lab or at the start-up stage,

碳去除技术要么仍在构想， 要么刚开始实验，要么才进入初创阶段，

there’s only a handful of companies worldwide right now

相对进入正轨的碳去除技术公司， 即便是全球范围内，

that are any further along.

一只手都数得过来。

Third, the manufacturing facilities for vaccines already exist at scale.

第三，生产疫苗的设备早已颇具规模。

But for carbon removal,

但碳去除呢，

the largest facility in operation today

今天投入运转的最大设施

is Climeworks’s as Orca plant in Iceland.

位于冰岛， 是 Climeworks 公司的 Orca 工厂。

It has an annual capacity of 4,000 tonnes,

其年碳捕获量达到了 4000 吨，

which is orders of magnitude less than what we need.

和我们所需实现的还差几个数量级。

This means that today there's no company or facility in operation

也就说，现今没有一家公司、 没有一处设备

that can respond to the demand signal of Frontier.

能够满足前沿基金的需求。

So to summarize,

总结而言，

for vaccine development,

对于疫苗开发，

all these companies needed as an incentive was a dollar sign.

只要市场有需求， 各家公司就会闻风而动。

They had everything they needed to jump into action and respond.

因为他们万事俱备， 只需要赶快行动就好了。

But today, carbon removal needs so much more.

但碳去除则不然，差太多了。

Even though there's a lot of different ways to approach this,

虽然改善现状的方案有很多，

I do believe that this is a significant market signal

但我仍相信，传递市场信号很重要，

that Shopify, alongside Stripe, Alphabet, Meta and McKinsey Sustainability

Shopify 与 Stripe、甲骨文 (Alphabet)、Meta 麦肯锡可持续发展部 (McKinsey Sustainability)

have committed to buying nearly one billion dollars combined

共同承诺 将会出资合计近 10 亿美元

of the product.

购买碳去除技术产品。

But the carbon removal ecosystem is underdeveloped.

但碳去除产业生态仍欠发达。

Even though Frontier is essentially helping to underwrite

即便前沿基金基本上已经在帮助承担

all of the broad investment needed to scale carbon removal,

碳去除实现规模化所需的各类投资，

this is an imperfect application

这样使用预先市场承诺机制

of the advance market commitment mechanism

仍难尽如人意，

because the carbon removal ecosystem is underdeveloped.

因为碳去除生态系统只初具雏形。

However,

不过，

however, this is exactly what we need to do

话说回来，恰恰应该如此：

to supercharge progress by accelerating innovation.

以推动创新力促突破。

It is so important to take chances and to experiment.

见机而作、不断试验太重要了。

And as buyers of carbon removal,

身为碳去除的买家，

we have an opportunity to stand up

我们有机会挺身而出，

and do our part to build for the future,

为未来做出一份贡献，

and this commitment does just that.

这一机制正为此而设。

So now we have Frontier,

现在呢，前沿基金已经落地，

which is the demand pull by providing capital and resources

提供资金、资源拉动市场需求，

through the advanced market commitment mechanism.

通过预先市场承诺机制实现。

But what about the other side of the equation?

但另一边呢？

We also need a supply push.

供应端同样需要激励。

To start,

首先，

in addition to all of the new climate companies being launched,

除了那些新公司接连成立外，

we also need companies from existing industries with transferable skills

我们还需要来自成熟产业的公司， 他们具备各类可迁移技能，

to jump in and start developing carbon removal.

可以马上投身于碳去除技术。

I'm talking about --

我具体所指的是——

now, don't get mad --

嗯，请别生气——

I'm talking about industries like oil and gas,

我具体所指的是这类产业： 石油和天然气行业、

mining, manufacturing,

采矿业、制造业、

infrastructure and electricity,

基建行业和电力行业，

who all have deep experience building huge projects.

这些产业均对建设大型项目驾轻就熟。

That's the massive scale that we need

这种规模才是我们所需的，

that I was talking about at the beginning.

就像我之前提到的一样。

Alongside this,

另外，

we also need to build a robust management system

我们还需要稳健的管理体系，

to ensure that all of these new carbon-removal solutions

用以保证投入使用的碳去除方案

are in fact capturing more carbon dioxide than they emit.

确实捕获量大于排放量。

This is kind of along the lines of the quality assurance,

这有点像我们所说的质保、

quality control and process trials we rely on

品控还有试制工艺，

to ensure that our vaccines are safe

它们确保疫苗安全、

and that they work.

对人体有效。

But most importantly,

但最重要的是，

we need more practice doing the actual thing

我们要付诸实践

rather than trying to get it perfect on paper.

而不能只是纸上谈兵。

If we don't try, we can't learn,

不尝试就无从吸取经验，

and if we don't learn, we cannot iterate and improve.

不总结经验就无法迭代、进步。

This AMC is technology-neutral.

这一 AMC 是不偏重任何技术手段的。

Frontier sends out the demand signal,

前沿基金向市场发出需求信号，

but we do not specify which technology should be used to meet it.

对实现目标的任何技术手段一视同仁。

But what we do specify is the quality standard we expect

但我们对质量标准有严格要求，

in order to ensure

这是为了保障

that real, permanent carbon removal took place

永久性的碳去除

at the agreed-upon price.

能在协议价格下落到实处。

Now this arrangement, we’re hoping,

这种安排，我们希望

should encourage experimentation and tight iteration cycles

能激励实验创新、 带来快节奏的迭代周期，

that should quickly separate the promising solutions

也就能快速 让有潜力有价值的方案脱颖而出，

from all of the distractions.

淘汰掉其余不理想的。

Now, I’d like to ground this in reality by providing three solid examples

为了加以佐证， 我给大家找三个有力例证：

of companies who are already on their way

这三家公司都在朝这个方向努力，

and some of them are actually doing the thing.

其中的两家已经基本成型了。

First, we have Climeworks, operating in Iceland.

第一，于冰岛建厂的 Climeworks。

They use direct air capture machines to filter carbon dioxide out of the air

这家公司采用直接空气碳捕获 (DAC) 设备 过滤空气中的二氧化碳，

and capture it for storage.

将其捕获并储存。

And they've now since broken ground on their next-scale facility,

现在，他们已经着手 建造更大规模的设备，

which should be able to pull 36,000 tons of CO2 out of the air.

去除二氧化碳能力预计 可达到 3 万 6 千吨。

Next, we have Running Tide,

第二，Running Tide，

who sink kelp deep into the open ocean to lock away carbon dioxide

他们向深海投放海藻， 利用光合作用

that's been captured through photosynthesis.

捕获并封存二氧化碳。

They’re currently working through their first-scale deployment,

Running Tide 目前正在部署 首次大规模投放，

and they're building all of the measurement,

同时也在完善测度、

quantification and monitoring systems

量化和检测系统，

at the same time.

两边工作同时进行。

And third, we have Heirloom, who plan to accelerate

第三，Heirloom， 该公司试图增强

the natural capacity of limestone

石灰石在自然条件下

to react with and capture carbon dioxide

与二氧化碳反应并将其吸收的能力，

and lock it away.

借此封存二氧化碳。

And now they plan to do this

现在，他们的目标是

by accelerating the natural absorption rates of the rock

加速石灰石吸收二氧化碳的速度，

from approximately a year to just days.

将原本耗时一年的过程 缩短到仅仅数天完成。

They're set to break ground on their first commercial-scale facility

Heirloom 首个具备工业规模的设施

in the United States in 2023.

将于 2023 年在美国动工。

Now, there are many other companies

当然，还有很多其他公司

that are starting to emerge that I could have mentioned here.

也在不断取得进展， 有机会的话我也想一一介绍。

However, from these three examples,

不过，从我所提到的三家公司中，

what you can see is the diversity of solutions.

大家就能大致了解 碳去除技术手段的多样性。

And we're agnostic about that.

我们对其也不尽了解。

All that matters is that they achieve the results within the set parameters.

重点在于，这些技术手段都能 按既定要求实现碳去除。

Now, before I end,

好了，在结束之前，

I must address the question of our own operations.

我必须要再聊聊我们公司 是如何运营的。

So to start,

首先呢，

Shopify is a carbon-neutral company,

Shopify 是一家零碳企业，

and we've committed to kick-starting the carbon-removal market.

我们以帮助启动并完善 碳去除市场为使命。

Our business is all about helping millions of entrepreneurs succeed.

所有的努力都是为了 服务数百万企业家。

And today, they're experiencing so many challenges.

今时今日，企业家们 面临的挑战太多了。

We have an opportunity to help them become carbon-neutral

而 Shopify 有机会 帮助他们实现零碳排放，

and to leverage carbon removal

有机会充分利用碳去除

in order to future-proof their businesses,

以保障这些企业的长足发展，

which in turn safeguards ours.

最终也是为了我们所有人的美好明天。

Now, not a lot of them have climate teams.

很多企业还没有配备气候团队。

But we have the opportunity to share our experience and expertise with them.

但我们能和他们分享 我们的专业知识、我们的经验。

And so what we're trying to do

我们的目标是

is take everything we've learned

把我们全部的经验教训，

about reducing and managing Shopify's emissions

不论是来自 Shopify 自身减排管理的经历，

and from vetting and buying high-quality carbon removal,

还是关于审查 并购买高质量的碳去除服务，

and we’re trying to take those lessons

把这些经验教训总结梳理，

and put them out on our platform

然后投放到我们的平台上，

to make them available for all of our merchants.

以供我们的客户借鉴。

Not only will this help reduce emissions,

这不仅能帮助减排，

but this will also help create

也能完善市场

the very market that all of these new carbon-removal companies

来容纳所有这些新兴碳去除公司，

who are building in response to Frontier's demand signal will rely on.

促使他们的发展步伐 跟上前沿基金释放的需求信号。

This is a feedback loop that will spur innovation

这种良性循环能策励创新，

and drive the development of carbon removal

推动碳去除行业发展

at the scale the world needs.

达到世界所需的规模。

Thank you.

谢谢大家。

(Applause)

（掌声）