The Billion-Dollar Pollution Solution Humanity Needs Right Now | Stacy Kauk | TED
45,722 views ・ 2022-12-20
请双击下面的英文字幕来播放视频。
翻译人员: Yifan Jia
校对人员: Yip Yan Yeung
00:08
How much money do we need
0
8672
2419
需要投入多少资金
00:11
in order to remove a significant
amount of carbon dioxide
1
11132
4338
才能将大量的二氧化碳
从我们的大气层中移除呢?
00:15
out of our atmosphere?
2
15512
1668
00:17
And what are the mechanisms
that we should use
3
17764
3045
我们又应该以什么样的方式
来利用这笔资金呢?
00:20
to spend all of that money?
4
20809
2627
00:24
I'm the head of sustainability at Shopify,
5
24354
2419
我是 Shopify 公司的
可持续发展负责人。
00:26
a company you may not know
but you might interact with every day
6
26815
4129
你可能没听说过我们公司,
但搞不好你每天都在和我们打交道,
00:30
because our technology
powers millions of online retailers.
7
30986
4588
因为我们为数百万
在线零售商提供技术支持。
00:36
In 2019,
8
36324
1418
在 2019 年,
我们想要成为一家零碳企业,
00:37
we wanted to become
a carbon-neutral company
9
37742
3170
00:40
and be accountable
for all of our historical emissions.
10
40912
3253
也要对我们
先前所有的排放量负责到底。
00:44
Instead of buying typical,
traditional carbon offsets
11
44791
4088
我们没有按惯例购买碳抵消额度,
00:48
that simply pay someone else
12
48879
1793
单单通过付钱来阻止别人
造成和我们一样的污染,
00:50
to not pollute as much as we already had,
13
50672
3045
00:53
we actually wanted to delete
our emissions.
14
53758
2837
而是想要彻底抵消我们造成的排放。
00:57
It quickly became obvious
that carbon removal,
15
57262
4171
显然,碳去除技术
01:01
those solutions that pull carbon
dioxide out of the atmosphere
16
61474
3379
这类将二氧化碳从大气中捕获
并安全储存的解决方案,
01:04
and store it safely,
17
64895
1418
01:06
were very expensive and in short supply.
18
66354
3462
成本极高而且还很稀缺。
01:10
So to kick-start this almost
non-existent market,
19
70609
3878
因此,为了启动
这个几乎不存在的市场,
01:14
we launched our sustainability fund
20
74529
2211
我们发起了可持续发展基金,
01:16
and committed to spend a minimum
of five million dollars every year
21
76781
5089
并承诺每年至少将 500 万美元
01:21
on the most promising solutions.
22
81912
2502
投资在最有潜力的碳中和方案上。
01:24
Now, obviously we need
deep emissions reductions,
23
84873
3837
毋庸置议,我们现在需要的
01:28
I'm not disputing that.
24
88752
1835
显然是深度减排。
01:30
But alongside this,
25
90629
1418
但与此同时,
01:32
we also need to build the world's capacity
26
92088
2962
我们也需要让全球
01:35
to pull ten gigatons
of carbon dioxide out of the sky,
27
95050
4754
具备每年从大气
捕获 100 亿吨二氧化碳的能力,
01:39
every year, by 2050.
28
99804
2628
在 2050 年前就要实现。
01:43
Now, at the time,
five million was a big number,
29
103558
4671
在 2019 年,
五百万是一笔大数目,
01:48
and it was a really big number
to spend on something in its infancy.
30
108271
4338
更别说这笔钱只是用于开发初期上。
01:52
And we thought we were doing
something significant.
31
112651
3211
起初我们觉得这项事业很了不起,
01:55
But then we totally hit a wall.
32
115862
2753
但现实给了我们当头一棒。
01:59
We weren't even thinking
at the right scale.
33
119074
2878
因为我们连规模都没有考虑对。
02:02
We need to build massive facilities
34
122535
2336
按计划,我们应兴建大型处理厂,
02:04
capable of pulling one million tons
of carbon dioxide out of the air
35
124871
4088
每年从大气
捕获 100 万吨二氧化碳
这还只是单座处理厂的处理量,
02:08
every year,
36
128959
1459
02:10
and we need thousands of them.
37
130418
1877
而我们需要数千座这样的处理厂。
02:12
And in order to do that,
38
132337
1501
要想实现这个目标,
02:13
we need project financing
of about one billion dollars per plant.
39
133880
5005
需要为每座处理厂注资约十亿美元。
02:20
Now, to put that into perspective,
40
140011
2920
要说这是个什么概念的话,
02:22
our five-million-dollar annual budget
41
142973
2627
那我们每年 500 万美元的预算,
02:25
would probably buy about 10,000
tons of carbon removal every year.
42
145600
4088
大概每年只能固碳 1 万吨。
02:30
That's tiny.
43
150105
1251
少得可怜。
02:31
That's only one percent
of the annual capacity
44
151398
3670
和处理厂每年所需的处理量比起来,
02:35
of the size of the facilities we need.
45
155110
2127
仅有百分之一。
02:37
And like I said,
46
157278
1168
而且,我还说过
02:38
we need thousands of them.
47
158488
1710
我们需要数千座这样处理厂。
02:41
So we've learned that in order
to move the dial on climate
48
161366
4755
所以呢,要是真想改善气候环境
02:46
and to build the necessary infrastructure,
49
166121
2878
并且兴建必要的基础设施,
02:49
we need more money,
50
169040
1710
我们需要更多资金,
02:50
way more money.
51
170750
1669
现有资金远远不足。
02:52
And in order to do that,
52
172460
1669
筹集资金
02:54
we need collaborations
53
174129
2168
就需要各方协作,
02:56
and we need structures that leverage
the significant power of capital
54
176339
4171
也需要建立一种机制,将资本的伟力
03:00
to create even bigger effects.
55
180552
2544
最大化利用,来实现更优结果。
03:03
So now I'd like to tell you
about what we did next.
56
183596
2795
那么,现在我就讲讲
我们接下来做了些什么。
03:07
It's a mechanism that we launched
alongside four other companies.
57
187350
4588
我们与四家公司联合
建立了一种机制。
03:11
It's an AMC.
58
191980
1626
叫做 AMC。
03:14
AMC stands for Advance Market Commitment,
59
194065
3587
也就是预先市场承诺机制,
03:17
and this one’s designed to help
guarantee a future market
60
197694
3962
我们用这一机制来保障未来的
03:21
for carbon removal by trying
to de-risk the R and D investment
61
201698
5047
碳去除市场,
具体则是帮助控制研发投资
03:26
and capital expenditures
needed to scale carbon removal
62
206745
3628
和资本支出的风险,
以保障碳去除的规模化应用
03:30
and grow that industry.
63
210373
1919
以及行业的整体发展。
03:32
Now, why I think this is such
a promising approach
64
212959
4088
为什么我觉得这种方案更有希望呢?
03:37
is because it's not new.
65
217047
1710
是因为 AMC 不是什么新奇的概念,
03:39
AMCs have been used in the past
in the health care sector
66
219132
3795
过去曾用于医疗卫生领域
03:42
to encourage and accelerate
the development of vaccines.
67
222927
3587
以激励和加速疫苗研发。
03:48
It worked by essentially guaranteeing
68
228016
3712
其原理是基本确保了
03:51
the economic viability of production
by setting a price in advance.
69
231728
5005
疫苗生产在经济上的可行性,
因为预先定下了价格。
03:57
This meant that companies
could justify the R and D resources
70
237150
4046
这样一来,
疫苗公司研发疫苗所投入的资源
04:01
needed to develop the vaccine
71
241196
2127
就有了保障,
04:03
as well as the costs
associated with bringing it to market.
72
243364
3295
疫苗产品
进入市场的成本也有据可依了。
04:07
They just needed to know that someone
was going to buy their product
73
247035
3295
这些公司其实只需要心里有底
有人会以相对确定的价格
04:10
at a set price.
74
250371
1627
购买他们的产品。
04:12
So this AMC borrows the idea
75
252832
4171
AMC 借用了
04:17
of a purchase guarantee
76
257045
1960
购买担保的逻辑,
04:19
to try to accelerate the development
77
259047
3170
来加速碳去除的研发
04:22
and scaling of carbon removal.
78
262258
2461
和规模化应用。
04:25
And to do that, we set up a fund,
79
265428
3337
为此,我们设立了一个基金,
04:28
and it's a pretty big fund.
80
268807
1626
其规模相当可观。
04:30
It’s nearly one billion dollars,
81
270767
3003
资金总额接近 10 亿美元,
04:33
and it's called Frontier.
82
273812
1668
名为“前沿 (Frontier)”。
04:36
But Frontier has to overcome
some significant differences
83
276189
5672
但前沿基金仍需
克服疫苗研发和碳去除
04:41
between vaccine development
and carbon removal.
84
281861
3754
之间的诸多显著差异。
04:46
First, vaccine development
has been done for a long time
85
286407
5047
首先,疫苗研发由来已久,
04:51
and we've largely worked out
the supply chain
86
291496
3295
我们已经谙熟相关的供应链
04:54
and infrastructure challenges,
87
294833
2002
和基础设施问题,
04:56
the operational issues
and the policy definitions.
88
296835
4045
了解实际运营和有关政策的要点。
05:00
But for carbon removal,
89
300922
1835
碳去除则不然,
05:02
this is essentially still a new industry
that faces all of these hurdles.
90
302757
4463
这仍是一个新兴产业,
以上问题都是难点。
05:07
For example,
91
307637
1251
就比如,
05:08
a lot of carbon removal technologies
rely on clean power to operate
92
308930
4421
很多碳去除技术手段
都依赖清洁能源,
05:13
because if they don't,
93
313351
1376
否则的话,
05:14
they'll emit more carbon dioxide
than they capture.
94
314769
3253
捕获的二氧化碳
还赶不上运行过程中的排放量。
05:18
But clean power does not exist today
at the scale and distribution we need.
95
318064
4797
但清洁能源现在的供应
还跟不上我们的需求。
05:23
Second, vaccines are developed
by established companies
96
323361
4254
第二,疫苗研发,
通常是大公司在做,
05:27
with deep R and D teams and experience.
97
327657
2544
他们有卓越的研发团队和丰富的经验。
05:30
Whereas today,
98
330535
1251
但现在,
05:31
carbon removal largely exists on paper,
in the lab or at the start-up stage,
99
331786
6507
碳去除技术要么仍在构想,
要么刚开始实验,要么才进入初创阶段,
05:38
there’s only a handful of companies
worldwide right now
100
338334
3462
相对进入正轨的碳去除技术公司,
即便是全球范围内,
05:41
that are any further along.
101
341796
1835
一只手都数得过来。
05:44
Third, the manufacturing facilities
for vaccines already exist at scale.
102
344382
5214
第三,生产疫苗的设备早已颇具规模。
05:50
But for carbon removal,
103
350263
1460
但碳去除呢,
05:51
the largest facility in operation today
104
351723
2794
今天投入运转的最大设施
05:54
is Climeworks’s as Orca plant in Iceland.
105
354517
3128
位于冰岛,
是 Climeworks 公司的 Orca 工厂。
05:57
It has an annual capacity of 4,000 tonnes,
106
357645
3170
其年碳捕获量达到了 4000 吨,
06:00
which is orders of magnitude
less than what we need.
107
360815
3003
和我们所需实现的还差几个数量级。
06:04
This means that today there's no company
or facility in operation
108
364152
5422
也就说,现今没有一家公司、
没有一处设备
06:09
that can respond
to the demand signal of Frontier.
109
369616
3169
能够满足前沿基金的需求。
06:12
So to summarize,
110
372827
2127
总结而言,
06:14
for vaccine development,
111
374954
2169
对于疫苗开发,
06:17
all these companies needed
as an incentive was a dollar sign.
112
377123
3962
只要市场有需求,
各家公司就会闻风而动。
06:21
They had everything they needed
to jump into action and respond.
113
381127
3462
因为他们万事俱备,
只需要赶快行动就好了。
06:25
But today, carbon removal
needs so much more.
114
385006
4171
但碳去除则不然,差太多了。
06:29
Even though there's a lot
of different ways to approach this,
115
389844
2878
虽然改善现状的方案有很多,
06:32
I do believe that this
is a significant market signal
116
392722
4004
但我仍相信,传递市场信号很重要,
06:36
that Shopify, alongside Stripe, Alphabet,
Meta and McKinsey Sustainability
117
396726
6882
Shopify 与 Stripe、甲骨文 (Alphabet)、Meta
麦肯锡可持续发展部 (McKinsey Sustainability)
06:43
have committed to buying nearly
one billion dollars combined
118
403608
4087
共同承诺
将会出资合计近 10 亿美元
06:47
of the product.
119
407737
1168
购买碳去除技术产品。
06:49
But the carbon removal ecosystem
is underdeveloped.
120
409656
4087
但碳去除产业生态仍欠发达。
06:54
Even though Frontier
is essentially helping to underwrite
121
414369
4462
即便前沿基金基本上已经在帮助承担
06:58
all of the broad investment needed
to scale carbon removal,
122
418831
4630
碳去除实现规模化所需的各类投资,
07:03
this is an imperfect application
123
423503
2586
这样使用预先市场承诺机制
07:06
of the advance market commitment mechanism
124
426089
2627
仍难尽如人意,
07:08
because the carbon removal
ecosystem is underdeveloped.
125
428758
3879
因为碳去除生态系统只初具雏形。
07:13
However,
126
433096
1960
不过,
07:15
however, this is exactly
what we need to do
127
435056
3295
话说回来,恰恰应该如此:
07:18
to supercharge progress
by accelerating innovation.
128
438393
3628
以推动创新力促突破。
07:22
It is so important to take chances
and to experiment.
129
442397
4588
见机而作、不断试验太重要了。
07:27
And as buyers of carbon removal,
130
447026
1752
身为碳去除的买家,
07:28
we have an opportunity to stand up
131
448778
2544
我们有机会挺身而出,
07:31
and do our part to build for the future,
132
451322
2878
为未来做出一份贡献,
07:34
and this commitment does just that.
133
454242
2711
这一机制正为此而设。
07:38
So now we have Frontier,
134
458079
2252
现在呢,前沿基金已经落地,
07:40
which is the demand pull
by providing capital and resources
135
460373
3670
提供资金、资源拉动市场需求,
07:44
through the advanced
market commitment mechanism.
136
464085
2628
通过预先市场承诺机制实现。
07:46
But what about the other side
of the equation?
137
466754
2586
但另一边呢?
07:49
We also need a supply push.
138
469340
2795
供应端同样需要激励。
07:52
To start,
139
472135
1376
首先,
07:53
in addition to all of the new
climate companies being launched,
140
473553
3503
除了那些新公司接连成立外,
07:57
we also need companies from existing
industries with transferable skills
141
477056
4838
我们还需要来自成熟产业的公司,
他们具备各类可迁移技能,
08:01
to jump in and start
developing carbon removal.
142
481894
2837
可以马上投身于碳去除技术。
08:05
I'm talking about --
143
485565
2169
我具体所指的是——
08:07
now, don't get mad --
144
487734
1710
嗯,请别生气——
08:09
I'm talking about industries
like oil and gas,
145
489444
3837
我具体所指的是这类产业:
石油和天然气行业、
08:13
mining, manufacturing,
146
493323
2419
采矿业、制造业、
08:15
infrastructure and electricity,
147
495783
2461
基建行业和电力行业,
08:18
who all have deep experience
building huge projects.
148
498244
4171
这些产业均对建设大型项目驾轻就熟。
08:22
That's the massive scale that we need
149
502457
2502
这种规模才是我们所需的,
08:24
that I was talking about at the beginning.
150
504959
2586
就像我之前提到的一样。
08:28
Alongside this,
151
508296
1460
另外,
08:29
we also need to build
a robust management system
152
509756
3169
我们还需要稳健的管理体系,
08:32
to ensure that all of these
new carbon-removal solutions
153
512967
3504
用以保证投入使用的碳去除方案
08:36
are in fact capturing more
carbon dioxide than they emit.
154
516512
4296
确实捕获量大于排放量。
08:41
This is kind of along the lines
of the quality assurance,
155
521351
3211
这有点像我们所说的质保、
08:44
quality control and process
trials we rely on
156
524562
3670
品控还有试制工艺,
08:48
to ensure that our vaccines are safe
157
528274
2336
它们确保疫苗安全、
08:50
and that they work.
158
530651
1502
对人体有效。
08:53
But most importantly,
159
533154
2669
但最重要的是,
08:55
we need more practice
doing the actual thing
160
535865
3462
我们要付诸实践
08:59
rather than trying
to get it perfect on paper.
161
539369
2961
而不能只是纸上谈兵。
09:03
If we don't try, we can't learn,
162
543122
3045
不尝试就无从吸取经验,
09:06
and if we don't learn,
we cannot iterate and improve.
163
546167
3754
不总结经验就无法迭代、进步。
09:10
This AMC is technology-neutral.
164
550338
3295
这一 AMC
是不偏重任何技术手段的。
09:13
Frontier sends out the demand signal,
165
553674
2294
前沿基金向市场发出需求信号,
09:16
but we do not specify which technology
should be used to meet it.
166
556010
3837
对实现目标的任何技术手段一视同仁。
09:20
But what we do specify
is the quality standard we expect
167
560431
4463
但我们对质量标准有严格要求,
09:24
in order to ensure
168
564936
1751
这是为了保障
09:26
that real, permanent
carbon removal took place
169
566729
3462
永久性的碳去除
09:30
at the agreed-upon price.
170
570233
2085
能在协议价格下落到实处。
09:32
Now this arrangement, we’re hoping,
171
572985
2920
这种安排,我们希望
09:35
should encourage experimentation
and tight iteration cycles
172
575905
4588
能激励实验创新、
带来快节奏的迭代周期,
09:40
that should quickly separate
the promising solutions
173
580535
4170
也就能快速
让有潜力有价值的方案脱颖而出,
09:44
from all of the distractions.
174
584747
2252
淘汰掉其余不理想的。
09:47
Now, I’d like to ground this in reality
by providing three solid examples
175
587041
4880
为了加以佐证,
我给大家找三个有力例证:
09:52
of companies who are already on their way
176
592922
2961
这三家公司都在朝这个方向努力,
09:55
and some of them
are actually doing the thing.
177
595925
3086
其中的两家已经基本成型了。
09:59
First, we have Climeworks,
operating in Iceland.
178
599053
4171
第一,于冰岛建厂的 Climeworks。
10:03
They use direct air capture machines
to filter carbon dioxide out of the air
179
603266
4588
这家公司采用直接空气碳捕获 (DAC) 设备
过滤空气中的二氧化碳,
10:07
and capture it for storage.
180
607854
1668
将其捕获并储存。
10:10
And they've now since broken ground
on their next-scale facility,
181
610565
3879
现在,他们已经着手
建造更大规模的设备,
10:14
which should be able to pull 36,000
tons of CO2 out of the air.
182
614485
4713
去除二氧化碳能力预计
可达到 3 万 6 千吨。
10:19
Next, we have Running Tide,
183
619824
2502
第二,Running Tide,
10:22
who sink kelp deep into the open ocean
to lock away carbon dioxide
184
622368
4713
他们向深海投放海藻,
利用光合作用
10:27
that's been captured
through photosynthesis.
185
627081
2711
捕获并封存二氧化碳。
10:29
They’re currently working
through their first-scale deployment,
186
629792
3379
Running Tide 目前正在部署
首次大规模投放,
10:33
and they're building all
of the measurement,
187
633171
2711
同时也在完善测度、
10:35
quantification and monitoring systems
188
635923
2753
量化和检测系统,
10:38
at the same time.
189
638718
1460
两边工作同时进行。
10:40
And third, we have Heirloom,
who plan to accelerate
190
640720
6006
第三,Heirloom,
该公司试图增强
10:46
the natural capacity of limestone
191
646767
3087
石灰石在自然条件下
10:49
to react with and capture carbon dioxide
192
649896
3211
与二氧化碳反应并将其吸收的能力,
10:53
and lock it away.
193
653107
1251
借此封存二氧化碳。
10:54
And now they plan to do this
194
654358
1710
现在,他们的目标是
10:56
by accelerating the natural
absorption rates of the rock
195
656068
4463
加速石灰石吸收二氧化碳的速度,
11:00
from approximately a year to just days.
196
660573
3295
将原本耗时一年的过程
缩短到仅仅数天完成。
11:04
They're set to break ground
on their first commercial-scale facility
197
664368
4421
Heirloom 首个具备工业规模的设施
11:08
in the United States in 2023.
198
668831
2961
将于 2023 年在美国动工。
11:13
Now, there are many other companies
199
673002
3003
当然,还有很多其他公司
11:16
that are starting to emerge
that I could have mentioned here.
200
676005
3378
也在不断取得进展,
有机会的话我也想一一介绍。
11:19
However, from these three examples,
201
679800
2128
不过,从我所提到的三家公司中,
11:21
what you can see
is the diversity of solutions.
202
681969
3462
大家就能大致了解
碳去除技术手段的多样性。
11:25
And we're agnostic about that.
203
685473
2169
我们对其也不尽了解。
11:27
All that matters is that they achieve
the results within the set parameters.
204
687683
5089
重点在于,这些技术手段都能
按既定要求实现碳去除。
11:33
Now, before I end,
205
693648
2502
好了,在结束之前,
11:36
I must address the question
of our own operations.
206
696192
4504
我必须要再聊聊我们公司
是如何运营的。
11:40
So to start,
207
700738
1794
首先呢,
11:42
Shopify is a carbon-neutral company,
208
702532
2335
Shopify 是一家零碳企业,
11:44
and we've committed to kick-starting
the carbon-removal market.
209
704909
3170
我们以帮助启动并完善
碳去除市场为使命。
11:48
Our business is all about helping millions
of entrepreneurs succeed.
210
708829
4755
所有的努力都是为了
服务数百万企业家。
11:53
And today, they're experiencing
so many challenges.
211
713626
3587
今时今日,企业家们
面临的挑战太多了。
11:58
We have an opportunity to help
them become carbon-neutral
212
718422
4547
而 Shopify 有机会
帮助他们实现零碳排放,
12:03
and to leverage carbon removal
213
723010
3170
有机会充分利用碳去除
12:06
in order to future-proof their businesses,
214
726180
3170
以保障这些企业的长足发展,
12:09
which in turn safeguards ours.
215
729350
1960
最终也是为了我们所有人的美好明天。
12:12
Now, not a lot of them have climate teams.
216
732186
2920
很多企业还没有配备气候团队。
12:15
But we have the opportunity to share
our experience and expertise with them.
217
735773
5506
但我们能和他们分享
我们的专业知识、我们的经验。
12:21
And so what we're trying to do
218
741862
2002
我们的目标是
12:23
is take everything we've learned
219
743906
1960
把我们全部的经验教训,
12:25
about reducing and managing
Shopify's emissions
220
745908
3420
不论是来自 Shopify
自身减排管理的经历,
12:29
and from vetting and buying
high-quality carbon removal,
221
749370
4379
还是关于审查
并购买高质量的碳去除服务,
12:33
and we’re trying to take those lessons
222
753749
1836
把这些经验教训总结梳理,
12:35
and put them out on our platform
223
755626
1877
然后投放到我们的平台上,
12:37
to make them available
for all of our merchants.
224
757545
2461
以供我们的客户借鉴。
12:40
Not only will this help reduce emissions,
225
760715
2919
这不仅能帮助减排,
12:43
but this will also help create
226
763676
2252
也能完善市场
12:45
the very market that all of these new
carbon-removal companies
227
765970
3962
来容纳所有这些新兴碳去除公司,
12:49
who are building in response
to Frontier's demand signal will rely on.
228
769974
4588
促使他们的发展步伐
跟上前沿基金释放的需求信号。
12:55
This is a feedback loop
that will spur innovation
229
775271
3795
这种良性循环能策励创新,
12:59
and drive the development
of carbon removal
230
779108
2544
推动碳去除行业发展
13:01
at the scale the world needs.
231
781652
2211
达到世界所需的规模。
13:03
Thank you.
232
783863
1209
谢谢大家。
13:05
(Applause)
233
785072
4296
(掌声)
New videos
Original video on YouTube.com
关于本网站
这个网站将向你介绍对学习英语有用的YouTube视频。你将看到来自世界各地的一流教师教授的英语课程。双击每个视频页面上显示的英文字幕,即可从那里播放视频。字幕会随着视频的播放而同步滚动。如果你有任何意见或要求,请使用此联系表与我们联系。