The Billion-Dollar Pollution Solution Humanity Needs Right Now | Stacy Kauk | TED

譯者: Lo Julia 審譯者: Shelley Tsang 曾雯海

How much money do we need

我們需要多少錢

in order to remove a significant amount of carbon dioxide

來排除過多的二氧化碳

out of our atmosphere?

遠離大氣層之外?

And what are the mechanisms that we should use

我們該使用什麼樣的機制

to spend all of that money?

會花上所有這些錢?

I'm the head of sustainability at Shopify,

我是Shopify的永續長

a company you may not know but you might interact with every day

也許你不知道這家公司 但你可能每天都在接觸

because our technology powers millions of online retailers.

因為我們技術影響 無數的線上零售商。

In 2019,

在2019年

we wanted to become a carbon-neutral company

我們想成為一家 碳中和公司

and be accountable for all of our historical emissions.

以及對所有我們的 歷來排放量透明化

Instead of buying typical, traditional carbon offsets

代替購買固有傳統的 碳抵銷

that simply pay someone else

這只不過是付費給其他人

to not pollute as much as we already had,

就少了我們已有汙染量

we actually wanted to delete our emissions.

實際我們要消除排放量。

It quickly became obvious that carbon removal,

關於碳的移除 會隨即變得顯著

those solutions that pull carbon dioxide out of the atmosphere

那些解決方式是將 二氧化碳帶離大氣層

and store it safely,

並安全存放。

were very expensive and in short supply.

非常昂貴也短缺

So to kick-start this almost non-existent market,

所以為了展開這幾乎 不存在的市場

we launched our sustainability fund

我們提出了永續基金

and committed to spend a minimum of five million dollars every year

承諾每年花至少五百萬元

on the most promising solutions.

在最看好的解決方案

Now, obviously we need deep emissions reductions,

顯然我們需要深度減排

I'm not disputing that.

我並未質疑。

But alongside this,

不過與此同時

we also need to build the world's capacity

我們也須建立全球產能

to pull ten gigatons of carbon dioxide out of the sky,

將一百億二氧化碳 帶離天空外

every year, by 2050.

每一年直到2050

Now, at the time, five million was a big number,

那麼，當時 五百萬是個大數目

and it was a really big number to spend on something in its infancy.

而實在是筆大數目 是花在初期階段的項目。

And we thought we were doing something significant.

我們覺得我們正 把事情做大

But then we totally hit a wall.

然而我們真的遇到瓶頸

We weren't even thinking at the right scale.

我們甚至沒考慮過合宜範圍

We need to build massive facilities

我們需要建立龐大的設施

capable of pulling one million tons of carbon dioxide out of the air

能夠將一百萬噸二氧化碳 帶離天空外

every year,

每一年。

and we need thousands of them.

而我們需要成千個。

And in order to do that,

為了要完成，

we need project financing of about one billion dollars per plant.

我們需要項目融資 關於一工廠要一百萬元。

Now, to put that into perspective,

好 從客觀角度來看，

our five-million-dollar annual budget

我們的年度預算五百萬

would probably buy about 10,000 tons of carbon removal every year.

可能會購入每年約 一萬噸碳移除

That's tiny.

還真少。

That's only one percent of the annual capacity

這百分之一只是占

of the size of the facilities we need.

所需設備規模之年度產能。

And like I said,

就像我說的

we need thousands of them.

我們需要成千個

So we've learned that in order to move the dial on climate

因此了解到要產生 氣候上的變動

and to build the necessary infrastructure,

以及建造必要的基礎設施

we need more money,

我們需要更多錢

way more money.

更多的錢

And in order to do that,

為了要完成

we need collaborations

我們需要合作

and we need structures that leverage the significant power of capital

且需要借助資金顯著力量

to create even bigger effects.

去創造更大影響的組織。

So now I'd like to tell you about what we did next.

所以我想告訴你們 有關我們的下一步

It's a mechanism that we launched alongside four other companies.

我們與其他四間公司 共同啟用一項機制

It's an AMC.

它是AMC

AMC stands for Advance Market Commitment,

AMC代表為先進市場承諾，

and this one’s designed to help guarantee a future market

設立於協助保障未來市場

for carbon removal by trying to de-risk the R and D investment

針對碳移除通過試著 將R和D投資降低風險

and capital expenditures needed to scale carbon removal

資金開支需評估碳移除

and grow that industry.

並培植這行業

Now, why I think this is such a promising approach

那為何我覺得這樣子是 一項有潛力的途徑

is because it's not new.

那是由於它非新創

AMCs have been used in the past in the health care sector

AMC過去用在健康保健部門

to encourage and accelerate the development of vaccines.

來促使與加快疫苗發展。

It worked by essentially guaranteeing

此運作是透過基於保障

the economic viability of production by setting a price in advance.

生產上的經濟可行性 用預先設定一種價格。

This meant that companies could justify the R and D resources

這意謂這些公司能證明 R與D資源正當

needed to develop the vaccine

應於發展疫苗

as well as the costs associated with bringing it to market.

以及進入市場伴隨來的成本

They just needed to know that someone was going to buy their product

他們只需了解某人將會 購入他們的商品

at a set price.

用定價

So this AMC borrows the idea

因此這AMC借用此點子

of a purchase guarantee

用購買擔保

to try to accelerate the development

去努力加快碳移除的進展

and scaling of carbon removal.

和其規模。

And to do that, we set up a fund,

為了要達成我們設立基金，

and it's a pretty big fund.

那是非常大的基金

It’s nearly one billion dollars,

將近一億美元

and it's called Frontier.

稱作邊境

But Frontier has to overcome some significant differences

然而邊境需克服一些 明顯差異

between vaccine development and carbon removal.

疫苗發展與碳移除之間

First, vaccine development has been done for a long time

首先，疫苗的發展已 有一段時間

and we've largely worked out the supply chain

而我們大部分已在執行 這條供應鏈

and infrastructure challenges,

和基礎設施挑戰

the operational issues and the policy definitions.

操作問題和政策說明

But for carbon removal,

除了碳移除，

this is essentially still a new industry that faces all of these hurdles.

這基本上仍是一新興行業 要面臨這些所有問題。

For example,

舉例

a lot of carbon removal technologies rely on clean power to operate

很多碳移除技術仰賴 清潔能源運作

because if they don't,

因為要是他們不這樣，

they'll emit more carbon dioxide than they capture.

他們會散發出比他們所取得 的二氧化碳還多。

But clean power does not exist today at the scale and distribution we need.

但現今清潔能源已不復見 於我們所需的分布範圍

Second, vaccines are developed by established companies

第二，疫苗是由知名企業研發

with deep R and D teams and experience.

具有資深R和D團隊和資歷。

Whereas today,

然而今日

carbon removal largely exists on paper, in the lab or at the start-up stage,

碳移除大部分存留於書面， 實驗室裡或草創階段

there’s only a handful of companies worldwide right now

目前全球僅少數企業

that are any further along.

有進一步行動。

Third, the manufacturing facilities for vaccines already exist at scale.

第三，疫苗的製造設備已 具有一定規模

But for carbon removal,

然而碳移除

the largest facility in operation today

現今運作中的最大設施

is Climeworks’s as Orca plant in Iceland.

位於冰島氣候工廠公司 所建的Orca(能源)工廠

It has an annual capacity of 4,000 tonnes,

該工廠一年能捕獲四千噸

which is orders of magnitude less than what we need.

這數量等級少於所需

This means that today there's no company or facility in operation

這意謂現今沒有使用中 的企業或設備

that can respond to the demand signal of Frontier.

能響應邊境需求信號

So to summarize,

那總而言之，

for vaccine development,

對於疫苗發展，

all these companies needed as an incentive was a dollar sign.

所有這些企業需要金錢 來作為一種鼓勵。

They had everything they needed to jump into action and respond.

他們擁有所需的一切來 參與行動與響應

But today, carbon removal needs so much more.

然而今日，碳移除的需求 則多更多。

Even though there's a lot of different ways to approach this,

即使有很多不同的方法 來處理這樣情況

I do believe that this is a significant market signal

我深深相信這是一項 重要的市場信號

that Shopify, alongside Stripe, Alphabet, Meta and McKinsey Sustainability

即 Shopify平台與Stripe，字母控股 Meta以及麥肯錫永續平台

have committed to buying nearly one billion dollars combined

一併承諾購買近一億美元

of the product.

複合式產品

But the carbon removal ecosystem is underdeveloped.

不過碳移除生態系統 還在發展階段。

Even though Frontier is essentially helping to underwrite

即便邊境基本上正協助 承保所有廣泛投資

all of the broad investment needed to scale carbon removal,

其需來估算碳移除

this is an imperfect application

這是一項不完善的

of the advance market commitment mechanism

先進市場承諾機制運用

because the carbon removal ecosystem is underdeveloped.

因為碳移除生態系統 還在發展中

However,

然而

however, this is exactly what we need to do

然而這的確是我們要做

to supercharge progress by accelerating innovation.

就是加速創新來刷新進度。

It is so important to take chances and to experiment.

對於冒險及實驗是很重要的

And as buyers of carbon removal,

身為碳移除買家們

we have an opportunity to stand up

我們有機會站出來

and do our part to build for the future,

並用一己之力去建立未來

and this commitment does just that.

而此承諾正是如此

So now we have Frontier,

所以現在我們有邊境

which is the demand pull by providing capital and resources

屬於透過提供碳和資源 的需求拉升

through the advanced market commitment mechanism.

利用先進市場承諾機制。

But what about the other side of the equation?

不過方程式另一邊呢?

We also need a supply push.

我們也需一供給推動。

To start,

開始著手

in addition to all of the new climate companies being launched,

除了所有已成立的新創 氣候公司外

we also need companies from existing industries with transferable skills

我們也需要具有可轉移技術 的現有產業

to jump in and start developing carbon removal.

加入並展開碳移除發展。

I'm talking about --

我正談論到-

now, don't get mad --

好的別發火-

I'm talking about industries like oil and gas,

我正要談到關於產業 如油和瓦斯

mining, manufacturing,

礦業，製造業

infrastructure and electricity,

基礎設施以及電力

who all have deep experience building huge projects.

擁有建立重大專案的 資深資歷人才

That's the massive scale that we need

那種大規模的才是我們要的

that I was talking about at the beginning.

我在開頭時正談論到的部分。

Alongside this,

除此之外

we also need to build a robust management system

我們也需建立一項 健全的管理系統

to ensure that all of these new carbon-removal solutions

確保這所有新型碳移除 解決方法

are in fact capturing more carbon dioxide than they emit.

所獲取二氧化碳量實際 比他們排放的還更多。

This is kind of along the lines of the quality assurance,

這種類似於品質保證

quality control and process trials we rely on

品質管控和所仰賴的 製程試驗

to ensure that our vaccines are safe

來確保我們疫苗是安全的

and that they work.

以及他們運作狀況。

But most importantly,

但最重要的是

we need more practice doing the actual thing

我們需要更多實戰練習

rather than trying to get it perfect on paper.

而非盡試著紙上談兵。

If we don't try, we can't learn,

如果我們不試就學不會

and if we don't learn, we cannot iterate and improve.

而如果不學的話 就無法迭代與改善。

This AMC is technology-neutral.

此AMC是一項技術中立。

Frontier sends out the demand signal,

邊境發送出需求信號

but we do not specify which technology should be used to meet it.

但我們不指名用來滿足它 會是何種技術

But what we do specify is the quality standard we expect

不過我們指名的會是 我們所要的品質標準

in order to ensure

為了確保

that real, permanent carbon removal took place

碳移除實際地持續進行

at the agreed-upon price.

在商定價格的規範下。

Now this arrangement, we’re hoping,

那我們正希冀此協議

should encourage experimentation and tight iteration cycles

可以鼓勵實驗及 緊湊的迭代循環

that should quickly separate the promising solutions

其能立即從所有分心事物

from all of the distractions.

識別具前景的解決方案。

Now, I’d like to ground this in reality by providing three solid examples

那我想將之付諸現實 透過提供三個實際的例子

of companies who are already on their way

是已往此方向發展的

and some of them are actually doing the thing.

以及其當中一些實際 在執行的企業

First, we have Climeworks, operating in Iceland.

首先，我們在冰島 有氣候工廠公司經營

They use direct air capture machines to filter carbon dioxide out of the air

他們使用直接空氣捕獲機器 過濾空氣中的二氧化碳

and capture it for storage.

並捕獲之儲存起來。

And they've now since broken ground on their next-scale facility,

他們直至今已開工 動土下一階段設備

which should be able to pull 36,000 tons of CO2 out of the air.

應該能將三千六百噸的 二氧化碳從大氣中帶走

Next, we have Running Tide,

接下來還有失速浪潮公司

who sink kelp deep into the open ocean to lock away carbon dioxide

將巨藻深埋在公海 用以保存二氧化碳

that's been captured through photosynthesis.

持續以光合作用獲取

They’re currently working through their first-scale deployment,

近期他們正實行 第一階段運作

and they're building all of the measurement,

然後正建立所有的尺寸

quantification and monitoring systems

量化以及監控系統

at the same time.

在同時間內。

And third, we have Heirloom, who plan to accelerate

第三，傳家寶公司 計畫增加

the natural capacity of limestone

石灰岩的環境承載力

to react with and capture carbon dioxide

與二氧化碳產生反應 並將它獲取

and lock it away.

之後保存起來。

And now they plan to do this

目前他們打算做這項

by accelerating the natural absorption rates of the rock

透過加速岩石的環境 吸收率

from approximately a year to just days.

約莫從一年至僅數日

They're set to break ground on their first commercial-scale facility

他們準備開工動土 首部商業規模設施

in the United States in 2023.

於2023年美國

Now, there are many other companies

那還有許多其他企業

that are starting to emerge that I could have mentioned here.

已開始顯現我這邊 所提到的情況

However, from these three examples,

然而，從這三個例子

what you can see is the diversity of solutions.

你可看見的是多元的 解決方案

And we're agnostic about that.

我們是持不可知論

All that matters is that they achieve the results within the set parameters.

重要的是他們得到的 結果不超過設置參數

Now, before I end,

那在結束之前

I must address the question of our own operations.

我必須表達我們自家 企業的問題

So to start,

所以開始吧

Shopify is a carbon-neutral company,

Shopify是一間碳中和企業

and we've committed to kick-starting the carbon-removal market.

我們承諾了展開碳移除 市場

Our business is all about helping millions of entrepreneurs succeed.

我們業務主要是幫助 百萬家企業成功

And today, they're experiencing so many challenges.

而今日他們正經歷著 許多挑戰

We have an opportunity to help them become carbon-neutral

我們有機會去幫助他們 成為碳中和

and to leverage carbon removal

並發揮碳移除的作用

in order to future-proof their businesses,

以便他們的業務不過時

which in turn safeguards ours.

其因而能保護我們。

Now, not a lot of them have climate teams.

他們當中許多並無氣候團隊

But we have the opportunity to share our experience and expertise with them.

不過我們有機會分享 我們經驗和專長給他們

And so what we're trying to do

因此我們正試著做的是

is take everything we've learned

接受我們所學的一切

about reducing and managing Shopify's emissions

關於減少並管理 Shopify排放量

and from vetting and buying high-quality carbon removal,

來自審核以及購入 高品質的碳移除

and we’re trying to take those lessons

我們正努力地吸取經驗

and put them out on our platform

將之發佈於我們的平台

to make them available for all of our merchants.

提供給我們所有零售商

Not only will this help reduce emissions,

不僅能幫助降低排放量

but this will also help create

還能協助創造

the very market that all of these new carbon-removal companies

正好是全部這些新型 碳移除企業的市場

who are building in response to Frontier's demand signal will rely on.

仰賴這市場的企業則正 建立響應邊境需求信號

This is a feedback loop that will spur innovation

這條反饋迴路 則會激勵創新

and drive the development of carbon removal

以及驅動碳移除發展

at the scale the world needs.

在全球需求規模下

Thank you.

謝謝

(Applause)

(鼓掌)