请双击下面的英文字幕来播放视频。
00:00
Transcriber: Leslie Gauthier
Reviewer: Joanna Pietrulewicz
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翻译人员: Yan Wang
校对人员: Gentle Yang
从小到大,我最珍贵的回忆,
就是每月同母亲去逛市场,
市场就在我们所居住的印度小镇上。
00:13
Growing up, one of my fondest memories
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我们一大早就穿行于如迷宫般错落分布的
00:16
was of going to a local market
with my mom every month
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各式沿街店铺和街边小摊,
00:20
in the small town in India where we lived.
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最终到妈妈常去的几个店,
那里的店员都认识她。
00:24
We would spend the morning
walking through an intricate maze
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在这些店里,她会挑些应季水果,
00:27
of small stores and street vendors,
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再看看店里有卖哪些厨房用品。
00:30
stopping at her favorite spots
where everyone knew her,
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她会用上几个小时全方位360度地
挑拣要买的东西,
00:34
discovering what fruits were in season
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向店员提问,东西的质量如何,产地在哪。
00:37
and what kitchenware was in stock.
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00:39
She would spend hours
examining things from all angles,
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店员会拿出最新款的器具,
00:43
quizzing sellers on their quality
and where they came from.
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推荐其中可能最符合我妈喜好的那一款。
我们总能心满意足地
00:48
They would show her
the latest tools and gadgets,
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满载而归,
00:51
picking the ones
that they knew she would like.
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买了许多我们原本没打算买的东西。
00:55
And we always walked back
happy and satisfied,
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00:59
our arms overflowing
with dozens of shopping bags
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十年后,
在繁华的首都德里,作为一名大学生,
01:03
having bought so much more
than what we originally intended.
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我和朋友们也会每月花上几个小时
在“时尚街”
01:08
A decade later,
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01:09
as a college student
in the bustling city of Delhi,
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也就是一排小服装店去购物。
01:12
my friends and I would spend
a similar few hours every month
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那里有最新款式的服装,最实惠的价格。
01:16
on "Fashion Street,"
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我们会花几个小时的时间,
从衣服堆里翻找想要的衣服,
01:17
a euphemism for the row of small stores
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试戴几十件小饰品,
01:20
with the latest clothes at great prices.
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互相给出建议,穿戴上去是不是好看,
01:24
We would spend hours
rummaging through piles of clothes,
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是不是正在流行。
我们会把所有的东西放在一起
01:28
trying on dozens of trinkets,
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去争取一个大的折扣。
01:30
getting advice from each other
on what looked good
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我们每个人都有不同的角色。
01:32
and what was on trend.
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01:34
We would then combine
everything we had bought
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一个人擅长评定东西是不是好看时尚,
另一个擅长讲价,
01:37
to negotiate a big discount.
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01:40
Each of us had different roles.
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还有一个是时间管理员,
01:42
One was great
at putting the look together.
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确保我们准时回到学校。
01:45
Another one was better
at negotiating the discount.
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购物不只是你买了什么,
01:49
And a third was always the timekeeper
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更多的是发现一个新事物的寻宝过程,
01:51
to make sure that we got back
to school on time.
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和来自你信任的人的个性化建议。
01:55
Shopping is so much more
than what you buy.
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这是一场谈判,从而获得优惠的交易
01:58
It's a treasure hunt
to discover something new,
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还有和朋友家人相聚的时间。
02:00
a personalized recommendation
from someone you trust.
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它是社交,是互动,
02:04
It's a negotiation to get that great deal
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也是对话。
02:07
and a time spent catching up
with friends and family.
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在过去的二十年里,
我一直在研究世界各地新兴市场的消费者,
02:11
It's social, it's interactive,
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02:13
it's conversational.
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深入研究,真正了解这些消费者,
他们是什么样的人,
02:15
Over the last two decades,
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02:17
I have been researching consumers
in emerging markets around the world,
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是如何生活的,
以及在购物的时候,他们想要什么。
02:22
digging beneath the surface
to truly understand who they are,
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购物也和其他事情一样,
逐步转移到线上了。
网上购物非常好,
02:26
how they live
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02:27
and what they want when they go shopping.
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它非常方便——轻轻一点,
02:30
Shopping, like everything else,
has moved online.
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东西就送到你门口了。
而且什么都有,
价格还便宜。
02:34
Shopping online is great.
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但它没有互动,缺乏人情味。
02:36
It's convenient --
at the click of a button,
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你坐在电脑或手机前
02:38
delivered to your doorstep.
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02:40
It has everything.
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02:41
It has great prices.
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浏览着由算法精选
02:43
But it's also static and impersonal.
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02:46
You sit alone in front
of a computer or a mobile phone
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并由机器显示出来的数百个候选商品。
当你查询时,
02:50
scrolling through hundreds of choices
identified by an algorithm,
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你其实在和另一个机器或机器人在交流——
而很少会和一个真正的人交流。
02:54
delivered by a machine.
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02:56
When you do have a query,
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这让我很困惑,
02:58
you interact with another
machine or a bot --
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当你和成功的销售员交谈时,
03:01
rarely an actual human being.
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他们总是告诉你
成功的秘诀在于对话。
03:05
What puzzles me about this
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03:07
is when you speak
to a successful salesperson,
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人们想从别的人那里买东西。
03:10
they will always tell you
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所以,当我们网购的时候
为什么会忘记这个最关键的因素呢?
03:12
that the secret to closing a sale
is the conversation.
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03:16
People want to buy from other people.
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这种无人情味儿的匿名购物体验
让我们很多人不太满意。
03:20
So why do we forget
this most crucial ingredient
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03:23
when we shop online?
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在回报率创历史新高的同时,
03:25
This impersonal, anonymous experience
is leaving many of us less satisfied.
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我们却感觉——
我是不是买的太多了?
我是不是买的太少了?
我穿上真的好看吗?
03:32
Returns are at an all-time high,
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我还需要这个吗?
03:34
and we're left feeling --
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对于这个新兴市场里
03:36
did I buy too much?
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03:37
Did I buy too little?
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刚刚接触互联网的10亿消费者来说,
03:39
Does it really look good on me?
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网上购物可能会让他们不知所措。
03:41
Did I even need this?
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03:43
And for the one billion consumers
who are new to the internet
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他们不确定是否能得到他们所看到的,
03:46
in emerging markets,
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不确定是否可以信任卖家。
03:48
shopping online can be overwhelming.
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如果他们的钱在网络空间丢失了怎么办?
03:52
They are unsure whether
they'll get what they can see,
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问题是:
我们能否创建大规模的
真实可靠的人类对话吗?
03:55
unsure whether they can trust the seller.
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03:57
What if their money
gets lost in cyberspace?
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04:01
The question is:
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我们能创造方便、丰富、
人性化的在线市场吗?
04:03
can we create authentic, real,
human conversation at scale?
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好消息是,答案是肯定的。
04:09
Can we create online marketplaces
that are convenient and abundant
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全球新兴市场的公司,
04:15
and human?
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在中国、印度和东南亚,
04:17
The good news is that the answer is yes.
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正在使用这种
04:20
Companies in emerging
markets around the world,
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我称之为对话式商务的模式。
04:24
in China, India and Southeast Asia,
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难以置信,不是吗?
04:26
are doing just this,
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让我给大家举几个例子。
04:29
using a model that I call
conversational commerce.
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第一个:Meesho,
一家印度公司,在那里你可以和卖家
04:33
It's hard to believe, isn't it?
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04:35
But let me give you a few examples.
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在网上建立一种信任和真诚的关系。
04:39
First: Meesho,
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04:40
an Indian company where you can build
a trusted and authentic relationship
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和我妈妈一起购物最棒的地方
就是卖家知道她是谁,
她知道可以信任他们。
04:46
with a seller online.
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04:48
The best part about shopping with my mom
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他们会在商店里的数百种候选中
04:51
was that the sellers knew who she was
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为她制定个性化的建议,
04:53
and she knew that she could trust them.
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04:56
They would scroll through the hundreds
of choices in the store
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知道她喜欢什么,什么对她有用。
05:00
and pick and make personalized
recommendations just for her,
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很难想象这样的事情会在网上
大规模的发生,
但这正是Meesho正在做的。
05:05
knowing what she would like
and what would work for her.
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在Meesho上,你可以一次又一次地购物,
05:08
It's hard to imagine such a thing
happening online on that scale,
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但不是与陌生人或机器人互动,
05:12
but that's exactly what Meesho is doing.
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05:14
On Meesho, you can shop
over and over and over again,
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你和同一个人互动:
他是Meesho的代表,是一个真正的人,
05:19
but instead of interacting
with a stranger or a bot,
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你通过社交媒体与之互动。
05:23
you interact with the same person:
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随着时间的推移,她会更了解你。
05:26
a representative of Meesho
who is a real human being
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她知道你的喜好,
什么东西你不喜欢,
05:30
that you interact with via social media.
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你买了什么,什么时候买的。
05:33
Over time, she gets to know you better.
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你学会了去信任她。
比如,她会在排灯节之前给我妹妹发信息
05:36
She knows your likes,
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05:37
your dislikes,
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05:39
what you buy and when you buy it.
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告诉她有一系列新的手工纱丽。
05:41
And you learn to trust her.
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她知道我妹妹喜欢纱丽——
05:44
For example, she will message my sister
right before Diwali
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我是说,她已经有满满两个橱柜的纱丽——
但她也知道我妹妹总是在排灯节前买纱丽
05:48
with a new range of hand-loomed saris.
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05:51
She knows my sister loves saris --
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来庆祝印度的节日。
05:53
I mean, she has two
cupboards full of them --
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她也知道自己喜欢什么样的纱丽,
05:55
but she also knows that my sister
always buys a sari right before Diwali
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所以与其给她几百个选择,
06:00
for the Indian festive season.
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不如帮她挑选衣服的颜色和款式,
06:02
And she also knows
the kind of saris she would like.
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她知道我妹妹会喜欢的。
06:06
So instead of sending her
hundreds of choices,
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然后她会回答那些没完没了的问题。
06:09
she picks and chooses
the colors and styles
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丝绸摸起来怎么样?布料垂坠感如何?
06:12
that she knows my sister would like.
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我穿这个颜色好看吗?
06:14
And then she answers
her relentless questions.
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还有更多。
它确实是一个混合模型,
06:18
How does the silk feel?
How does the fabric fall?
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将大公司的便利和规模
06:21
Will this color look nice on me?
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06:23
And so many more.
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与可信赖的个人关系相结合,
06:25
It truly is a hybrid model,
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这种期望是那种在街角的商店里才有的。
06:27
combining the convenience
and scale of a large company
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我的下一个例子是LazLive。
06:32
with the trusted personal relationship
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在泰国的LazLive上,
06:35
that you would expect
from the shop around the corner.
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你可以看到真正的卖家
06:39
My next example is LazLive.
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通过实时视频流向你介绍产品。
06:42
On LazLive in Thailand,
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06:44
you can watch real sellers
describing products to you
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现在,我喜欢手袋。
当我在商店里的时候,
我喜欢在买包之前全面检查一下。
06:49
via a live video stream.
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06:52
Now, I love handbags.
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我要感受一下它的手感,
06:54
And when I am in a store,
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背在肩上,看看效果如何,
06:56
I like to examine a handbag
from all angles before I buy it.
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看看带子有多长,
打开看看里面的口袋
07:00
I need to feel the texture on my skin,
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以确保有足够的空间装下
07:03
hang it on my shoulder
and see how it looks,
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07:05
see how long the strap is,
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我需要放进手提包里的东西。
07:07
open it up and look at the pockets inside
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但当我试着在网上买手提包时,
07:09
to make sure that there is enough space
for all the millions of things
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我只看到几张照片:
基本的形状、颜色和大小。
07:14
I need to put into my handbag.
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但这还不够,不是吗?
07:16
But when I try and buy a handbag online,
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07:18
I just see a few pictures:
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为了解决这个问题,
LazLive开发了一个平台,让实际卖家——
07:20
the basic shape and color and size.
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07:24
But that's not enough, is it?
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真人可以分享关于衣服的信息,
07:26
To solve this problem,
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07:28
LazLive has developed a platform
where actual sellers --
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手袋、小玩意、
化妆品 ——
向你介绍产品,
07:32
real people can share
information about clothes,
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向你从里到外展示他们的产品,
07:37
handbags, gadgets,
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解释他们喜欢什么,不喜欢什么。
07:38
cosmetics --
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你可以问他们问题,并得到即时的答复,
07:40
describing the products to you,
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07:42
showing you what they are
from the outside and the inside,
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这样你在买之前就会对你买的东西更放心。
07:45
explaining what they like
and what they don't like.
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随着时间的推移,你可以观看
来自同一卖家的更多视频,
07:48
You can ask them questions
and get instant responses
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07:51
so that you are much more comfortable
with what you buy before you buy it.
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他们开始感觉更像朋友,
而不是没有面孔的机器。
07:56
Over time,
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07:57
you can watch more videos
from the same seller
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他们帮助你了解你要买什么,
08:00
and they start to feel more like a friend
than a faceless machine.
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紧跟最新趋势,
并且经常发掘你以前不知道的东西。
08:05
And they help you understand
what you're going to buy,
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最后,我最喜欢的一个例子:
08:09
stay abreast of the latest trends
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拼多多,
中国发展最快的平台之一,
08:12
and often discover things
that you didn't even know existed.
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在那里你可以和你的朋友一起在网上购物。
08:16
And finally, my favorite example:
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我记得我和朋友们一起
08:19
Pinduoduo,
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在时尚街购物的乐趣,
08:20
one of the fastest-growing
Chinese platforms,
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在商店里翻找,
08:23
where you can actually shop
with your friends online.
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找到完美的凉鞋,
谈那笔大交易?
08:26
You remember the fun I had
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08:28
shopping with my friends
on Fashion Street,
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在拼多多上,
你就可以这么做。
08:30
rummaging through stores,
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08:32
finding that perfect sandal,
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网上购物是孤独的,
08:34
negotiating that great deal?
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我怀念和朋友们在一起的时光。
08:36
Well, on Pinduoduo,
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08:38
you can do just that.
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但在拼多多上,
当我找到一个产品时,
08:41
It's lonely to shop online,
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我可以按正常价格自己买
08:44
and I miss hanging out with my friends.
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或者我可以通过社交媒体
分享给我的朋友,
08:46
But on Pinduoduo,
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08:48
when I find a product,
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08:49
I can either buy it myself
at the regular price
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和他们商量一下,
听取他们的建议,
如果我们选择一起买,
08:53
or I can share it with my friends
via social media,
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我们会得到很大的折扣。
这些优惠只持续很短的时间,
08:58
discuss it with them,
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09:00
get their advice,
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就像在现实世界中一样。
09:01
and if we all choose to buy it together,
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还有抽奖、游戏和限时抢购
09:03
we get a great deal.
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09:06
These deals last only for a short time,
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让所有的兴奋持续下去。
09:08
just like in the real world.
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这是一个迷人的模式,
09:10
And there are lotteries
and games and flash sales
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真正帮助你重新发现
09:14
to keep all the excitement going.
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与朋友和家人在旧时的集市
购物的乐趣和联系。
09:17
It's a fascinating model,
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09:19
really helping you rediscover
the joy and connection
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值得注意的是,
这些都不是零散的实验。
09:23
of shopping with your friends
and family in the bazaars of yore.
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在中国、印度和东南亚等市场,
09:27
What's important to note
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超过5亿的消费者参与对话式商务,
09:29
is that these are not stray experiments.
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09:33
In markets like China, India
and Southeast Asia,
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这些模式比传统的、
09:36
over 500 million consumers
engage in conversational commerce,
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静态的电子商务平台发展得快得多。
对话式商务的出现
09:43
and these models are growing much faster
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是为了解决首次在线购物者的需求,
09:46
than the traditional, more static
e-commerce platforms.
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但我的研究表明
对于更有经验的购物者来说,
它同样具有吸引力,
09:50
Conversational commerce emerged
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09:52
to solve the needs
of first-time online shoppers,
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不仅是新兴市场,全世界都是如此。
09:55
but my research shows
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09:57
that it is equally compelling
for more experienced shoppers,
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事实上,当我们对美国消费者
10:02
not just in emerging markets
but around the world.
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进行对话式商务测试时,
与亚洲消费者一样原因,
他们认为这种模式更具吸引力。
10:07
In fact, when we tested
conversational commerce
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10:10
with consumers in the US,
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参与对话式商务的消费者
10:13
they found it more compelling
for the same reasons as consumers in Asia.
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会多花40%的钱,
满意度更高,退货率更低。
10:19
Consumers who engage
in conversational commerce
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我坚信在不久的将来,
10:22
spend 40 percent more
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10:25
with higher satisfaction
and lower returns.
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对话式商务将成为常态,
彻底改变了世界各地的购物方式,
10:29
I strongly believe
that in the not-so-distant future,
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像亚马逊这样的传统电子商务平台
将需要适应
10:33
conversational commerce
will become the norm,
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10:37
revolutionizing shopping around the world,
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或者面临变成边缘化的风险。
10:40
and traditional e-commerce platforms
like Amazon will need to adapt
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对于品牌,
这是关键的一步,
一个前所未有的机会,
10:46
or risk becoming irrelevant.
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从20世纪的大众营销和过去20年
10:50
For brands,
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基于分析的超个性化,
10:51
this is a crucial next step
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10:53
and an unprecedented opportunity,
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10:55
moving on from mass marketing
in the 20th century
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到与消费者建立真正真实
10:59
and analytics-based hyperpersonalization
in the last two decades,
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而深刻的个人联系。
对于我们这些购物者来说,
它重唤魔力,
11:04
to building a truly authentic
and deep personal connection
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让网购终于又有了人情味儿。
11:09
with their consumers.
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11:10
And for us shoppers,
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谢谢大家。
11:12
it brings back the magic,
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11:14
making online shopping
finally feel human again.
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11:20
Thank you.
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