Vishaan Chakrabarti: A vision of sustainable housing for all of humanity | TED Countdown

翻译人员: 佳樹 221 32 林 校对人员: Yip Yan Yeung

So, I was born in India.

我出生在印度。

This is just a small part of my big, beautiful family there.

这只是我那庞大 又美丽的家族的一小部分。

I have, actually, 50, five zero, first cousins.

我实际上有 50 个堂表兄弟姐妹。

Most of us have a couple of kids.

我们大多数人都有很多小孩。

And so all of this leads me to believe the United Nations

所以，这一切都让我相信 联合国告诉我们的：

when they tell us that by 2100,

到 2100 年，

the world will have a population of almost 11 billion people.

全世界人口将会 达到近 110 亿，

That is, three billion more people than the planet houses today.

比现今这个星球 容纳的人口还要多 30 亿。

To house all of those people,

为了容纳这些人口，

we need to build about 2.4 trillion square feet

我们需要再建造 2.4 万亿

of new built space.

平方英尺的空间。

Now to give you a sense of scale,

好，为了让你们对 这个规模有一些概念，

that is the equivalent of adding to the planet a New York City,

这大概相当于每个月

替这颗星球增盖一个纽约市，

every month ...

并且持续 40 年。

for the next 40 years.

Now I'm a New Yorker and an architect,

我是一个纽约客，一个建筑师，

but this scares even me.

但这也让我吓着了。

But this is not a scary talk, I promise you.

但我保证， 这并不是个可怕的演讲。

(Laughter)

（笑声）

I think I know what you're probably thinking,

我知道你大概在想什么 :

which is, "We are already experiencing

我们正在经历

severe impacts from climate change.

气候变迁所带来的严重后果。

How can the world house another three billion people?

这个世界怎么能 再容纳 30 亿人?

And how can their housing needs be part of the solution,

而他们的住屋需求 怎么会是解决办法的一部分，

rather than part of the problem?"

而不是问题的一部份?

Could new housing be carbon-negative?

新式房屋能不能是负碳的?

Meaning that it offsets or sequesters more carbon than it produces.

意思是它抵消或隔离的碳 比它所制造的多。

Now, for our big, existing cities,

好，就我们现存的大都市而言，

there is a lot of hope in clean energy grids

我们对清洁的输电网路 抱有很大期望，

fueled by renewables like solar, wind, nuclear and geothermal.

由太阳能、风能、核能和地热等 可再生资源发电。

But the fact is, we are still a ways away

但事实是，我们离

from getting fully clean power grids in our existing cities,

在我们现存的城市 完全让输电网使用清洁能源

where most of this population growth is going to occur.

还有一段距离，

而大多数人口增长 会发生在这些城市里。

And that's true because of the problems

原因是有

运输线路和核能政策之类的问题。

with everything from transmission lines to the politics of nuclear energy.

So, clean grids are a really important part of the solution,

所以清洁能源是解决办法中 非常重要的一部分，

but they don't help us that much, right at this moment.

但此刻，它能提供给 我们的帮助并不多。

What we can do today,

我们现在可以做的是

what we have existing technology for,

用我们现有的科技

is to build net-zero single-family homes.

来建造碳中和的独立式房屋。

In sunny climates in particular, solar panels work very, very well,

尤其是在晴朗的天气， 太阳能板会运作地非常好。

because it's a lot of roof area, relative to very few occupants.

因为相对于它容纳的少量人数， 它占据了大面积的屋顶。

But these things, they're hardly a panacea --

但这些东西并不是个万灵丹，

in part because they're very expensive to build,

部分原因是他们的建造成本过高，

but more problematically,

但更大的问题在于，

because they induce car-oriented sprawl.

它们会引起以车为中心的杂乱拓展，

And I don't care if the cars are electric or autonomous --

我不管这些车是电动或自动，

sprawl is sprawl,

拓展就是拓展，

and it leads to a loss of wetlands,

这会导致湿地的减少、

a loss of forests,

森林的减少、

a loss of farms and a loss of community.

农地、社区的减少。

So maybe you're thinking the right answer to house our coming building boom

所以或许你认为要容纳 这即将到来的人口爆炸，

are towers.

塔才是正确答案。

And look, I've actually been called "Professor Skyscraper."

我曾经被叫做“摩天楼教授”。

I love a great tower.

我爱巨大的塔。

But the reality is we are very far away from developing carbon-negative towers.

但现实是，我们距离建成 碳中和的塔还有很远的距离。

And the reason is,

因为

towers are energy-intensive to build and operate.

塔在建造及运转过程中 需要大量能量。

They house a lot of people, which is great,

它们能容纳很多人， 这是件很棒的事。

but they have very little roof area to effectively use solar,

但它们并没有足够的屋顶面积来 有效地使用太阳能。

and similarly, like, wind turbines at the top --

类似于楼顶的涡轮发动机——

all of that stuff barely makes a dent.

这些东西几乎没有取得任何进展。

On top of that, most skyscrapers are built out of steel and concrete,

最重要的是，大部分的摩天楼 是用钢和混凝土建造的，

which have a very high degree of embodied energy.

这些材料会产生极高的 建筑材料自含能量。

Now, I hold out a lot of hope

好，我对于一种科技 抱有很大的期望，

for a technology known as "mass-timber construction,"

它叫“大规模木材建筑” （mass-timber construction）。

which would allow us to build tall towers

它让我们得以用

out of environmentally friendly and fire-retardant wood

环保且阻燃的木材 建造高楼大厦。

that's actually a carbon sink,

事实上，它将会成为一个碳汇，

but we are a ways away from widespread adoption of that technology.

但我们距离广泛应用 这种科技还很遥远。

I also hold out hope for the idea that windows could harness solar power,

我也对另一种想法抱有期望， 那就是用窗户来收集太阳能，

but the idea that we have effective and affordable solar glass

但这种让我们在不远的未来

使用高效、价格合理的 太阳能玻璃的想法，

in the near future,

that’s even more nascent than mass timber.

比起大规模木材还不太成熟。

So for towers to really be sustainable,

所以如果真的要让塔可持续，

we need those clean energy grids that we spoke about,

我们需要我们所讨论的 那种清洁能源网，

but we don't have them available to us today.

但它们现在并不能为我们所用。

So we have a paradox.

所以我们有个悖论，

How do we house all of these people,

我们该如何容纳这些人，

how do we build urban carbon-negative housing

我们该如何建造负碳建筑，

in a means that's technologically attainable and broadly affordable --

并使用一种技术上可行 又总体价格公道的方式呢？

and do that today?

而且要现在就能做？

Because I'm tired of talking about 2050.

因为我已经厌倦了 谈论 2050 年。

(Cheers and applause)

（喝彩声、掌声）

I believe that the answer is hiding in plain sight,

我相信答案就隐藏在 众目睽睽之下，

that there is what I call a “Goldilocks” scale

就是我称之为“金发姑娘” （Goldilocks）的规模，

that sits between the scale of housing and towers:

这个规模介于普通房屋和塔之间 :

two- to three-story housing

二至三层楼的房屋，

that should actually look very familiar to most of you,

你们应该对这些很熟悉，

because we built the most beloved parts of our cities with it.

因为城市中我们最爱的部分 大多数就是这个形态。

The row houses of Boston,

波士顿的联排别墅，

the hutong districts of Beijing,

北京的胡同，

most of the fabric of Edinburgh.

爱丁堡大部分地区的结构，

What we now build in this scale are largely cheap suburban townhomes.

我们以这个规模建造的房子 大多是廉价的郊区联排式房屋。

They're banal, they're not sustainable, they're not walkable,

它们很普通，不可持续， 也不适合逛逛。

they're certainly not beautiful.

它们绝对说不上美丽。

But could they provide a hint of a framework

但它们能提供以人类的尺度

for a human-scale way of solving this problem

来解决这个问题的一部分框架，

that is great for both the climate and our societies.

这对气候和我们的社会都有好处。

This Goldilocks framework hits the sweet spot

这个“金发姑娘”框架正中

between the number of people it can house

它所能容纳的人数

and the amount of roof area we need

和我们所需的屋顶空间 之间的黄金位置，

to provide them and their communities [with] power.

可以为人们和社区提供能量。

It can be built out of simple local materials, like wood or brick,

它可以由简单的、当地的材料 例如木材和砖头，来建造，

both of which have relatively low embodied energy

它们都只有相对较低的内含能量。

and could be built by local workers.

而且可以由当地工人建造。

And the solar panels up above could be supplemented

而楼顶的太阳能板可以由

with state-of-the-art battery systems

最先进的电池系统辅助，

that level out solar supply and user demand.

平衡太阳能的供需。

Similarly, we can have electric, state-of-the-art air conditioning

我们也同样可以使用 现有的先进电力空调

and heating systems --

和加热系统。

this exists today.

They can create thermal storage.

他们可以储热。

What that means is it can produce ice or hot water off-peak,

意思是，它可以在 非高峰时期制冰或热水，

for use on-peak.

在高峰时期使用。

This housing could compost food scraps and solid waste,

这种房屋可以利用 厨余和固体废物制造堆肥，

and turn it into usable soils or protein for animal feed.

并且将它转变为可用的土壤 或动物饲料的蛋白质。

And I think, most importantly,

而我想，最重要的是，

this kind of housing could provide affordable, communal, equitable housing

这类型房屋能够提供可负担的、 公共的、公平的住房，

for communities in dire need of it.

提供给急需这些的社区。

And I work with a lot of these communities,

我和这些社区深入合作，

and I know how much demand there is for this out there.

所以我知道这些需求有多大。

Speaking of communities ...

说到这些社区，

I want to emphasize that this is not a one-size-fits-all solution.

我想强调，这并不是个 一体通用的解决办法，

This is a framework. It's a template.

这是一个框架。 这是一个模版。

We can work with communities

我们可以和社区合作，

to make this housing appealing, visually and socially,

让这些房屋在外观 和社会性上具有吸引力，

make it socially and racially mixed,

让它变得社会性包容、 种族性包容，

integrated into the lives of existing communities.

与现有社区的生活融为一体。

And when it's built into our cities,

当我们在城市里建造它的时候，

what it means is that it's dense enough to support mass transit,

它会密集到足以支持公共交通，

like light-rail, express busses, bikes.

比如轻轨、高速巴士、脚踏车。

There are networks that plug into jobs, schools, parks

这些交通网络可以 串联工作、学校、公园

and other daily destinations in our cities.

和其他我们城市里的日常场所。

This housing is compact enough

这种住房的空间十分紧凑，

that it leaves room for lots of trees and ground cover.

能够给树和土壤 留有很大的空间。

That means that we can lower stormwater impacts;

也就是说我们可以降低 暴风雨水所带来的影响；

we can reduce the heat island effect;

我们可以降低热岛效应；

we can lower the demand for air conditioning.

我们可以降低对空调的需求。

And for every family that lives in an apartment like this,

每有一个住在这样公寓里的家庭，

it's one less house destroying farms and forests.

就会减少一个摧毁农庄 和森林的房屋。

Our collaborating engineers at Thornton Tomasetti have assured us that this is

我们在宋腾添玛沙帝 （Thorton Tomasetti）的合作工程师

the lowest-carbon-footprint-per-person means of habitation,

向我们保证居民将会 留下最少的人均碳足迹，

while also providing a sustainable use of land on our planet.

并且可持续利用我们星球的土地。

I want you to imagine with me that we deployed this Goldilocks framework

和我一起想象，

我们在我很喜欢的两个地方 部署了金发姑娘框架：

in two places that I love dearly,

New York and Calcutta.

纽约和加尔各答。

Very different places,

这两个地方非常不一样，

but they have these big, booming downtowns,

但它们都有很大且 繁荣发展的市中心，

but they also have these growing outskirts

但它们也有快速增长的郊区，

that experience a lot of sprawl.

遭受了大量的无序拓展，

So they have sites like this that are near mass transit.

所以它们有像这样 靠近大众运输的地区。

But imagine if, on these sites, instead of building sprawl,

但想像一下，如果在这些地点， 不建造这些拓展建筑，

we built this Goldilocks framework.

而建造金发姑娘框架。

Now, that would manifest in two very, very different ways.

那成果将会以两个非常、 非常不同的方式显现。

Different materials, different cultural expressions.

不同的材料， 不同的文化表达方式。

But it would give us carbon-negative, transit-rich, joyous places

但它会给我们带来负碳、 交通便利、欢乐的地方。

for people to live and raise their families.

让人们居住并养育他们的家人。

Now, you may be thinking,

现在，你或许正在想，

"So this is his big idea?

“所以这就是他的宏伟计划？

Small-scale housing,

小规模住房，

solar panels above, light-rail below,

楼顶装有太阳能板， 地底有轻轨，

known technologies throughout,

全屋配备现有科技，

all organized into these affordable green neighborhoods?"

全部装进这个价廉绿色的社区？

Even if you believed me that this was carbon-negative,

就算你相信我这是负碳的，

how many of our 11 billion people could this possibly house?

这怎么可能容纳 110 亿人?

It's such a modest model.

这是一个保守的模型。

Well, it turns out, if all of us lived at this scale,

这个嘛，事实是， 如果我们以这个规模生活，

all 11 billion of us would use up

这 110 亿个人只会用完

a landmass equivalent to the size of France.

相当于一个法国的土地面积。

Now, I have a feeling that the French don't want us all invading their country.

我知道法国人并不希望 我们入侵他们的国家。

(Laughter)

（笑声）

But I make this point to make a larger point,

但我讲这点是为了 解释更重要的一点，

which is, we can all live in this transit-rich,

就是我们都可以 用一个交通发达、

carbon-negative, affordable way,

负碳、可负担得起的方式生活，

and leave the vast majority of the planet for nature,

并且把这星球的大部分留给自然，

for agriculture, for clean oceans.

留给农业，留给干净的海洋。

We can do this.

我们做得到。

We know that residential energy use is so voracious

我们知道家用能源的需求非常大量，

that this model offsets so much carbon,

所以这个模型可以抵消这么多碳，

it actually more than offsets all of the cars in the world.

事实上它可以抵消比全世界 汽车更多的排放量。

The impact of this would be staggering.

这样的影响将会是令人震惊的。

So yes, we can go to 11 --

所以没错， 我们可以容纳 110 ，

11 billion people.

110 亿人。

We don’t need to fear our neighbors.

我们无需害怕邻居。

We don’t have a lack of land or technology.

我们并不缺少土地或科技。

We just have a lack of vision,

我们只是缺乏远见，

because the answers are hiding in plain sight.

因为答案就藏在我们眼前。

Thank you very much.

谢谢大家。

(Cheers and applause)

（欢呼声、掌声）