How the US Is Destroying Young People’s Future | Scott Galloway | TED

7,197,358 views ・ 2024-05-02

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翻译人员: Sue Lu
00:04
My name is Scott Galloway,
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我叫斯科特·加洛韦 (Scott Galloway),
00:05
I teach at NYU, and I appreciate your time.
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在纽约大学任教, 谢谢你抽空来听我演讲。
00:07
I have 44 slides and 720 seconds.
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我有 44 张幻灯片 和 720 秒的时间,
00:09
Let's light this candle.
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那我们就开始吧。
00:10
(Laughter)
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(笑声)
00:13
OK so for those of you who don't know me,
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如果你不认识我,
00:15
I'm actually a global television store.
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我是全球电视界的风云人物,真的。
00:17
True story.
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过去三年里,我参与了四部电视系列片。
00:18
I've had four TV series in the last three years.
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00:20
Two of them have been canceled before they were launched,
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其中两部在播出前就被取消了,
00:23
and two were canceled within six weeks.
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另外两部在播出六周内被取消。 让我们回顾一下。
00:25
Let's recap.
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(视频)SG: 如果我们想为此注入活力,
00:26
(Video) If we want to juice this thing,
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如果我们想要刺激经济增长, 彭博社,
00:28
if we want to put a cattle prod up the ass of the economy.
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00:31
Bloomberg.
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财经新闻中最值得信赖的名字,
00:32
The most trusted name in financial news.
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00:34
Not for long.
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但好景不长啦。
00:36
Andrew Yang: I'm going to do whatever I can for this country of ours.
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(视频)杨安泽: 我会为我们的国家尽力而为。
00:39
Scott Galloway: Jesus, come on, dude, you’re 0 for two.
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SG:拜托,伙计,你已输了两次了。
00:43
(Video ends)
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(视频结束)
00:46
Face for podcasting.
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SG:播客里熟悉的面孔。
00:48
So first insight of the day.
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那么,今天的第一个顿悟是,
00:49
I'd like to be the first person to welcome you to the last TED.
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我想第一个欢迎你莅临 最后一场 TED 大会。(笑声)
00:53
(Laughter)
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00:54
OK.
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00:55
By the way, it's clear -- what's it called?
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顺便问下 ——这叫什么? 我们来这儿干嘛的?
00:58
What are we here for?
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“勇者与智者”? (TED2024 大会主题)
00:59
“The Brave and the Brilliant?”
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01:00
It's clear that Chris is a frustrated soap opera producer.
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克里斯一定是受挫的肥皂剧制片人。
01:03
(Laughter)
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(笑声)
01:05
Essentially what we have here is a telenovela
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其实我们这就像部肥皂剧,
01:08
where, after a night of unbridled passion
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一夜激情之后,
01:10
between Bill Gates and Malcolm Gladwell,
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比尔·盖茨和马尔科姆·格拉德威尔
01:12
they give birth to their bastard love child,
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生下了他们的私生子,
01:16
Simon Sinek.
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西蒙·西内克(Simon Sinek)。
01:17
(Laughter)
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(笑声)
01:20
OK, I start us with a question.
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好吧,让我先提个问题。
01:22
Do we love our children?
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我们爱我们的孩子吗?
01:24
Sounds like an illegitimate question, right?
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这听起来像废话,对吧?
01:26
Well, I'm going to try and convince you otherwise.
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嗯,让我来试着说服你, 我们并不。
01:28
Essentially, as we go down generations,
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实际上,随着几代人的发展,
01:31
we're seeing that for the last two generations,
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我们却发现在过去的两代人中,
01:33
people are making less money on an inflation-adjusted basis.
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按通胀率调整后,人们赚的钱越来越少。
01:37
In addition, the cost of buying a home,
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此外,购房成本,
01:39
the cost of pursuing education, continues to skyrocket.
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接受教育的成本,继续飞涨。
01:42
So the purchasing power, the prosperity, is inversely correlated to age.
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因此,人们的购买力 和成功度与年龄成反比。
01:48
Simply put, as we get younger,
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简而言之,随着年龄的增长,
01:50
we're taking away opportunity and prosperity from our youngest.
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我们正在夺走年轻人的机会和繁荣。
01:54
The social contract that is now no longer in place
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社会契约已不复存在,
01:57
and for the first time in the US's history,
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这是美国历史上第一次,
01:59
a 30-year-old is no longer doing as well as his or her parents were at 30.
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30 岁的年轻人还没有 他们父母 30 岁时过得好。
02:02
This is a breakdown in the fundamental agreement we have with any society,
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这破坏了我们与社会达成的基本契约,
02:06
and it creates rage and shame.
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并引发愤怒和羞耻感。 (掌声)
02:08
(Applause)
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02:09
As a result, people over the age of 55 feel pretty good about America,
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因此,55 岁以上的人感觉美国很好,
02:13
but less than one in five people under the age of 34
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34 岁以下的人中只有不到五分之一
02:15
feel very good about America.
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有同感。
02:17
This creates an incendiary.
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这就会引发紧张局势、正义运动,
02:19
Righteous movements,
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削弱社会,最终感染机会主义流毒。
02:21
cuts to our society end up becoming opportunistic infections
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02:24
because generally speaking, young people have a warranted envy,
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总之,年轻人有理由羡慕,
02:27
they're pissed off and they're angry
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生气,甚至愤怒,
02:28
that they don't enjoy the same spoils and prosperity
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因为他们享受不到同样的舒适和繁荣,
02:31
that were provided to our generation.
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似乎那是我们这一代的专享。
02:34
A decent proxy for how much we value youth labor is minimum wage,
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最低工资可以代表我们对 青年劳动力的重视程度,
02:38
and we've kept it purposely pretty low.
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而我们有意将其保持在很低的水平。
02:40
If it had just kept pace with productivity,
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如果它能与生产率的增速保持一致,
02:42
it'd be at about 23 bucks a share.
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现在就该是每小时约 23 美元。
02:44
But we've decided to purposely keep it low.
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但我们有意把它压得很低,不可理瑜。
02:47
Out of reach.
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相对于中等家庭收入,中等房价飙升。
02:48
Median home price has skyrocketed relative to median household income.
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02:52
As a result, pre-pandemic, the average mortgage payment was 1,100 dollars,
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疫情前,平均 按揭付款额为 1,100 美元,
02:56
it's now 2,300 dollars
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现在为 2,300 美元,
02:57
because of an acceleration in interest rates
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这是由于利率加速增长,
03:00
and the fact that the average home has gone from 290,000 to 420.
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房屋均价从 29 万涨到 42 万美元。
03:04
By the way, the most expensive homes in the world,
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顺便,世界上最昂贵的房屋,
03:08
based on this metric, are number three, Vancouver.
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按该指标,温哥华排名第三。为什么?
03:10
Why?
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因为建房成本的 60%用于许可证。
03:11
Because 60 percent of the cost of building a home goes to permits.
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03:15
Because guess what, the incumbents that own assets have weaponized government
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另外,拥有资产的在位者利用政府职权
03:18
to make it very difficult for new entrants to ever get their own assets,
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阻碍新入市者获取资产,
03:22
thereby elevating their own net worth.
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从而提高在位者自己的净资产。
03:24
This is the transfer I'm going to be speaking about.
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这就是我要讲的转移,
03:27
(Applause)
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(掌声)
03:30
This has resulted in an enormous transfer of wealth,
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巨大的财富转移。
03:33
where people over the age of 70
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70岁以上的人
03:35
used to control 19 percent of household income,
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过去控制了 19%的家庭收入,
03:38
versus people under the age of 40, used to control 12.
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而 40 岁以下的人控制了 12%。
03:41
Their wealth has been cut in half.
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如今年轻人的财富却被减少了一半,
03:43
This isn't by accident, it's purposeful.
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并非偶然,而是有意为之。
03:46
This is me at UCLA in 1987.
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这是 1987 年的我, 于加州大学洛杉矶分校(UCLA)。
03:48
I know your first thought is I haven't changed a bit.
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我知道你首先想到的是,我一点都没变。
03:50
(Laughter)
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(笑声)
03:52
This is also Mia Silverio,
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这是米娅·西尔维里奥,
03:53
who is the analyst who put together these slides.
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整理这些幻灯片的分析师。 顺便,米娅 26 岁。
03:55
By the way, Mia is 26.
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03:57
I did the math, just by virtue of her being in this audience,
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我算了下,仅凭她也是现场听众,
04:00
it brings the average age of the entire conference down 11 days.
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整个参会者的平均年龄 就被拉低了 11 天。
04:03
(Laughter)
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(笑声)
04:06
When I applied to UCLA, the admissions rate was 76 percent.
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当年我申请入读 UCLA 时, 录取率是 76% 。
04:10
Today, it's nine percent.
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如今,只有 9% 。
04:12
I received a 2.23 GPA from UCLA.
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我的 UCLA 平均分(GPA)是 2.27。
04:14
I learned nothing but how to make bongs out of household items
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我什么也没学到, 除了学会用家居物品做水烟壶,
04:17
and every line from "Planet of the Apes."
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以及背下《人猿星球》的每句台词。
04:19
And the greatest public school in the world, Berkeley,
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而世界上最伟大的公立大学伯克利,
04:22
decided to let me in with a 2.27 GPA.
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仅凭我 2.27 的 GPA 就录取了我。
04:24
And that's what higher ed is about.
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这才是高等教育的意义所在。
04:27
Higher ed is about taking unremarkable kids
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高等教育就是要培养平凡的孩子,
04:30
and giving them a shot at being remarkable.
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给他们一个成就不凡的机会。
04:32
(Applause)
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(掌声)
04:36
And every year it's gotten more expensive.
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但每年一切都变得越来越昂贵。
04:39
Higher ed and homes and the ability --
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高等教育、住房和能力 ——
04:42
not only is higher ed incredibly expensive,
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高等教育不仅非常昂贵,
04:44
it's not accessible.
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而且难以进入。
04:46
Because me and my colleagues are drunk on luxury,
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因为我和我的同僚都沉迷于奢侈,
04:48
and I'll come back to that.
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一会儿我再来谈这个问题。
04:50
We've embraced the ultimate strategy.
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我们接受了终极策略。
04:52
Me and my colleagues in higher ed wake up every morning
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我和我的高教同事每天早上醒来后,
04:54
and ask ourselves the same question when we look in the mirror.
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对着镜子问自己同样的问题。
04:57
How can I increase my compensation while reducing my accountability?
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如何赚得更多却担责更少? (笑声)
05:02
(Laugter)
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我们发现了终极策略,
05:03
And we have found the ultimate strategy.
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05:05
It's called an LVMH strategy,
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称为 LVMH 战略,
05:07
where we artificially constrain supply to create aspiration and scarcity
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旨在人为限制供应 以制造渴求和短缺,
05:11
such that we can raise tuition faster than inflation.
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这样就能让学费涨速比通胀更快。
05:15
And old people and wealthy people have done the same thing with housing.
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老人和富人在住房上也用了同样的策略。
05:18
All of a sudden, once you own a home,
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突然间,一旦你拥有了住房,
05:20
you become very concerned with traffic,
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你就会非常关心交通状况,
05:22
and you make sure that there's no new housing permits.
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并会尽自己所能 阻止新的住房许可证被批准。
05:25
And here is a memo to my colleagues in higher ed:
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这是给我高教同僚们的忠告:
05:30
we’re public servants, not fucking Chanel bags.
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我们是公务员, 不是他妈的香奈儿包包。
05:33
(Applause)
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(掌声)
05:37
Harvard is the best example of this.
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哈佛就是最好的例子。
05:39
They've increased their endowment in the last 40 years
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在过去的 40 年中, 他们的捐赠基金大幅增长,
05:42
and have decided to expand their enrollment,
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于是决定增加招生人数,
05:44
their freshman class, by four percent.
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即多招 4 % 的新生。
05:46
Any university that doesn't grow their freshman class
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但是,这些大学的招生增速 都应该超过人口增速,
05:49
faster than population
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因为它们拥有超过十亿美元捐赠基金,
05:50
that has over a billion dollars in endowment
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05:52
should lose their tax-free status
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否则就不该享受免税待遇,
05:54
because they're no longer in higher education.
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既然它们已不再属于高教机构,
05:56
They're a hedge fund offering classes.
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而是提供教育的对冲基金。
05:58
(Cheers and applause)
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(欢呼声和掌声)
06:04
My first recommendation:
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我的第一条建议是:
06:06
Biden should take some of that 750 billion
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拜登应该拿出 7500 亿美元经费中的一部分,
06:08
earmarked to bail out the one third of people that got to go to college
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那些经费本来是用于 1/3 的人口的大学教育,
06:12
on the backs of the two thirds that didn't
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另外 2/3 的人口 由此被剥夺了大学教育的可能,
06:14
and give a billion dollars to our 500 greatest public institutions,
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所以,应该从经费中给前 500 名的 公立大学每一所拨款 10 亿美元,
06:18
size-adjusted, in exchange for three things.
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按学校规模调整具体数额, 以换取三样东西。
06:20
One, they use technology and scale to reduce tuition by two percent a year,
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第一,这些大学利用技术和规模 每年将学费减少 2%,
06:25
expand enrollments by six percent a year
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将入学人数增加 6%,
06:27
and increase the number of vocational certifications
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并将职业认证
06:29
and nontraditional four-year degrees by 20 percent.
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和非传统四年制学位数量增加 20%。
06:32
Where does that get us?
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这样做的后果是什么?
06:33
In just ten years,
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只需短短十年,
06:35
in just ten years, that doubles the freshman seats
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新生录取率就将翻一番,
06:38
and cuts the cost in half.
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而学费减半。 这样做一点不算激进,
06:40
This isn't radical.
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八、九十年代的大学就是这样的。
06:41
This is called college in the '80s and '90s.
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06:44
Another transfer of wealth.
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下面是另一种财富转移。
06:45
Look at what's happened to wages.
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看看工薪怎么回事。 哦,长上去了?
06:47
Oh, they've gone up?
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但没有企业利润长得多。
06:48
Not as much as corporate profits.
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06:50
There's a healthy tension between capital and labor.
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资本和劳动力之间存在健康的紧张关系。
06:52
But for the last 40 years, capital has been kicking the shit out of labor.
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但过去 40 年, 资本一直在践踏劳动力。
06:56
Well, you think, what about wages, right?
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你可能在想,工薪不是长上去了吗?
06:58
They've gone up.
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但如果与标准普尔比较, 其涨幅几乎可以忽略不计。
07:00
Well if you compare them to the S and P, they barely register.
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07:05
It's been an amazing time to own assets.
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这是拥有资产的绝佳时机。
07:07
But your attempt to get the certification or the income
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但是,为购置资产你得先有许可或收入,
07:09
such that you can acquire assets has gotten harder and harder.
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这却变得越来越难。
07:12
In my class of 300 kids, it's never been easier to be a billionaire,
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我班里有 300 名学生, 现在比任何时期都更易成为亿万富翁,
07:15
it's never been harder to be a millionaire.
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但他们却很难成为百万富翁。
07:18
By the way, our job in higher ed
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顺遍,高等教育的职责
07:19
isn't to identify a top one percent of people
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不是找出拔尖的 1%,
07:22
who are freakishly remarkable or have rich parents
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比如那些出类拔萃之辈或富家子弟,
07:25
and turn them into a super class of billionaires.
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然后将他们培养为超级阶层的亿万富翁,
07:27
It's to give the bottom 90 a chance to be in the top ten.
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而是应该帮助底层的 90% 进入顶尖的 10%。
07:30
(Applause)
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(掌声)
07:33
You know who doesn't need me or higher education?
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你知道谁不需要我或者高等教育吗?
07:36
The top 10 percent.
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顶尖的 10%。
07:38
The whole point of higher ed is to give the unremarkables, i.e. yours truly,
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高教的意义就在于给平凡人,如我,
07:42
who was raised by a single immigrant mother,
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由单身移民母亲养大的孩子,
07:45
a shot of being remarkable.
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一个出类拔萃的机会。
07:48
The transfer has been purposeful.
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这种转移是蓄意的。
07:50
While the cohorts, corporations and the ultra-wealthy
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尽管那些群体、企业和超级富豪
07:53
continue to garner more and more of our wealth,
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继续获取越来越多我们的财富,
07:55
we have decided, "I know, if they win the gold,
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我们却拱手相让: “好吧,如果他们赢得了金牌,
07:58
let’s give them the silver and the bronze, and let’s lower their taxes.”
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把银牌铜牌也给他们, 并降低他们的税款吧。”
08:01
This transfer is purposeful.
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这种转移是目的明确的,
08:03
It’s not by accident, and it works.
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并非巧合,且行之有效。
08:05
Senior poverty is way down, and we should celebrate that.
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老年人贫困率大幅下降,值得庆贺;
08:08
Meanwhile, child poverty is flat to up.
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但儿童贫困率没有改善甚至更糟。
08:12
The third rail.
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第三点,
08:13
I'm going to talk about Social Security.
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我要谈谈社会保障。
08:15
It would cost 11 billion dollars to expand the child tax credit.
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扩大儿童税收抵免将耗资 110 亿美元,
08:18
But that gets stripped out of the infrastructure bill.
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于是被从基础设施法案中删除了。
08:21
But the additional 135 billion dollars a year to Social Security,
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但每年额外的 1350 亿美元社保费用,
08:25
that flies right through Congress.
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却能在国会轻松通过。
08:26
And every year we transfer 1.4 trillion dollars
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而且,我们每年将 1.4 万亿美元
08:31
from a cohort that is increasingly doing less well
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从一个境况越来越差的群体
08:35
to the cohort that is the wealthiest cohort
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转移到最富有的群体,
08:37
in the history of this planet.
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该群体前所未有的富有。
08:41
I'm not against Social Security, but the criteria should be if you need it,
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我并不反对社保, 但标准应该是你是否需要它,
08:45
not whether you have a catheter.
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而不是你是否插有导尿管。
08:47
80 percent of you,
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观众里 80% 的人,
08:49
80 percent of you have absolutely no reason
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绝对没有理由
08:52
to ever take Social Security.
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领取社保。
08:54
It is bankrupting our nation.
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国家都快因此破产了。
08:56
And we have fallen under this mythology
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我们已陷入这种神话之中,
08:57
that somehow it's this great social program.
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以为它是很棒的社保计划,完全不对,
09:00
No it's not.
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这是财富从年轻人到老年人的大转移。
09:01
It's the great transfer of wealth from young to old.
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09:05
(Applause)
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(掌声)
09:07
How is this happening?
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为什么会如此?
09:09
Because our representatives are in fact, representative.
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因为我们的代表确实很有代表性,
09:12
Old people vote.
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投票者大多是老年人。
09:14
Washington has become a cross
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华盛顿已然成了一个交汇处,
09:16
between the "Land of the Dead" and "The Golden Girls."
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在《死亡之地》和《黄金女郎》之间游移。
09:19
(Laughter)
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(笑声)
09:21
Quite frankly, this is fucking ridiculous.
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坦率地说,这太荒谬了。
09:26
And if I sound ageist --
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如果我听起来像年龄歧视者——
09:28
(Applause)
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(掌声)
09:29
If I sound ageist, I am.
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如果我听着像年龄歧视者,我就是。
09:31
And you know who else is ageist?
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你知道还有谁是年龄歧视者吗?
09:32
Biology.
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生物学。
09:34
(Laughter)
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(笑声)
09:36
When Speaker Pelosi had her first child,
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议长佩洛西(Pelosi)生下老大时,
09:38
get this, two thirds of households didn't have color televisions,
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2/3 的家庭还没有彩色电视,
09:42
and Castro had just declared martial law.
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卡斯特罗刚刚(在古巴)宣布戒严令。
09:44
But she's supposed to understand
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所以,她能理解
09:46
the challenges of a 17-year-old girl who’s 5′ 9", 95 pounds,
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身高 5 英尺 9 英寸、体重 95 磅的 17 岁女孩子面对的挑战,
09:50
getting tips on dieting and extreme dieting from Facebook?
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以及从脸书获取极限节食等建议吗?
09:54
She's supposed to understand the challenges
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她能明白那些
09:57
that a 27-year-old single mother faces?
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27 岁单身母亲面对的挑战吗?
10:00
By the way, young and dreamy.
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顺便,看看这位,年轻而充满梦想。
10:02
(Laughter)
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(笑声) 年轻而充满梦想。
10:03
Young and dreamy.
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10:05
(Applause)
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(掌声)
10:10
The great intergenerational theft took place under the auspices of a virus.
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这场大规模跨代窃取 是在病毒的掩护下展开的。
10:14
I know, let's use the greatest health crisis in a century
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利用一个世纪以来最大的健康危机
10:17
to really speed-ball the transfer.
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来加速财富转移。
10:19
This is the Nasdaq from 2008 to 2012.
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这是 2008 年至 2012 年的 纳斯达克综合指数,
10:23
We let the markets crash.
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我们任市场崩溃。
10:25
And by the way, you need churn,
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顺便,市场需要剧烈震动,
10:27
you need disruption because it seeds and recalibrates advantage and wealth
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需要颠覆,这样才能 重置和调整优势及财富,
10:31
from the incumbents to the entrants.
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将其从现有者转移给新生代。
10:33
It's a natural part of the cycle.
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这是一个顺其自然的循环。
10:35
But wait, lately, no,
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等等,现在却非如此了。
10:37
a million people dying would be bad.
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一百万人垂死挣扎很糟。
10:40
But what would be tragic is if we let the Nasdaq go down
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但让纳斯达克指数一路下跌也很惨,
10:42
and guys like me lost wealth.
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像我这样的人就会不再富有。
10:44
So we pumped the economy,
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所以,我们就刺激经济,
10:46
which again, increased the massive transfer of wealth.
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再次增加财富的大规模转移。
10:49
The best two years of my life?
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我一生中最美好的两年?
10:51
Covid -- more time with my kids, more time with Netflix,
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新冠时期——更多时间陪伴孩子, 更多时间看奈飞(Netflix),
10:54
and the value of my stocks absolutely exploded.
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同时我的股票暴涨。
10:58
And who has to pay for my prosperity?
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谁被迫为我的繁荣买单呢?
11:01
Not me.
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当然不是我。
11:02
Future generations who will have to deal with an unprecedented level of debt.
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子孙后代将被迫承担前所未有的债务。
11:07
Why am I here, and why do I get the prosperity I enjoy?
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为什么我能有今天,能够享受一切繁荣?
11:10
Because in 2008 we bailed out the banks,
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因为在 2008 年我们救助了银行,
11:12
but we didn't bail out the economy.
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却没有救助经济。
11:14
We let the markets fall.
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我们让股市下跌。
11:16
So as I was coming into my prime income-earning years,
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所以,当我步入赚取收入的黄金时期,
11:19
I got to buy, no joke, these stocks at these prices.
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我就能买到这些低廉股票,不开玩笑。
11:23
This is where those stocks are now.
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这是这些股票现在的价位。
11:25
Where does a young person find disruption?
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年轻人到哪去找颠覆的机会呢?
11:28
When you bail out the baby boomer owner of a restaurant,
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当你救助婴儿潮一代的餐馆老板时,
11:31
all you're doing is robbing opportunity from the 26-year-old graduate
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你就是抢夺了 26 岁的毕业生
11:34
of a culinary academy that wants her shot.
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从烹饪学院毕业后需要的成功机会。
11:37
We need disruption.
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我们需要颠覆。
11:40
(Laughter)
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(笑声)
11:54
I just like this slide.
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我很喜欢这张幻灯片,
11:55
It has no context or relevance.
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尽管它和今天的演讲没啥关联。
11:57
(Laughter and cheers)
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(笑声和欢呼声)
12:09
We're economically attacking the young,
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我们在经济上攻击年轻人,
同时为何不也打击下 他们的情感和心理健康呢?
12:12
but I know, let's attack their emotional and mental well-being.
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12:15
Let's take advantage of the flaws in our species
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我们在利用人类物种的缺陷,
12:17
with medieval institutions, Paleolithic instincts
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将中世纪的机构、旧石器时代的本能
12:21
and godlike technology.
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和神一般的科技发扬光大。
12:23
I'm just going to say,
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我要说,
12:24
I think Mark Zuckerberg has done more damage to the young people in our nation
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马克·扎克伯格 对我国的年轻人造成很多伤害,
自己却赚得史无前例的盆满钵满。 (掌声)
12:28
while making more money than any person in history.
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12:30
(Applause)
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等等,或许可能更糟。
12:31
Oh, but wait, it could be worse.
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我们让对手在 年轻人的脑中植入了芯片
12:33
It's as if we let an adversary implant a neural jack into our youth
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12:36
to raise a generation of civic, military
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培养一代憎恨美国的 公民,军人以及商界领袖。
12:38
and business leaders that hate America.
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12:41
How can we be this stupid?
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我们怎么会如此愚蠢?
12:43
(Laughter)
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12:45
This all adds up to a bunch of graphs all headed up into the right.
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造成这一切的问题就在上涨的图表中。
12:48
And what are they?
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都是些什么图表呢?
第一个图是什么?自残率, 其数量在女孩中暴增。
12:50
What's the first one?
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12:51
Oh, that's self-harm rates, which have exploded,
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12:53
especially among girls since my colleague Jonathan Haidt pointed out,
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我同事乔纳森·海特(Jonathan Haidt) 指出,手机社交媒体令其火上浇油。
12:56
it's really, really gone crazy since social went on mobile.
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13:00
What's the next one?
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下一个是青少年抑郁症。 再接着是关于男女缺乏性生活。
13:01
Teens with depression.
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13:03
The next one, men and women not having sex.
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13:06
Biggest fear of my parents was that I was going to get in too much trouble.
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我父母曾最担心我会惹祸太多。
老实说,我最大的担心
13:10
My biggest fear, honestly,
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是我的孩子不会惹祸太多。
13:11
is that my kids aren't going to get into enough trouble.
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我建议每个观看该节目的年轻人,
13:14
My advice to every young person watching this program
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走出去,多喝点酒,做些糟糕的决定,
13:16
is go out, drink more and make a series of bad decisions
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从中学到关于生活。
13:19
that might pay off.
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13:20
(Laughter and applause)
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(笑声和掌声)
13:23
Next graph, cumulative gun deaths.
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下一个图,累计枪击死亡人数。
13:25
You're more likely to be shot in the United States
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在美国被枪杀的可能性更大的
13:27
if you're a toddler or an infant than a cop.
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是婴幼儿而非警察。
13:29
Next graph, obesity, way up.
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下一个图,肥胖症,上升幅度很大。
13:32
By the way, the industrial food complex wants to addict you to shitty, fatty foods
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工业化食品集团想让你 对低劣油腻食物上瘾,
13:36
so they can hand you over to the industrial diabetes complex.
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好把你交给糖尿病治疗集团。
13:39
We should not romanticize obesity.
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我们不应该美化肥胖症,
它不会帮你找到真实的自我,
13:41
You're not finding your fucking truth.
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13:42
You're finding diabetes.
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而是找到糖尿病。
13:44
(Laughter and applause)
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(笑声和掌声)
13:47
Overdose deaths, way up.
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吸毒过量死亡人数大幅上升。
13:48
Deaths of despair.
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绝望之死。
我高中那阵,导致死亡的是酒后驾车,
13:50
When I was in high school, it was drunk driving,
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13:52
now it's kids killing themselves.
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现在是孩子们自杀。
年轻人再也不想生小孩了。
13:54
Young people don't want to have kids anymore.
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2/3 的 30 - 34 岁身体健全的人
13:56
Two-thirds of people aged 30 to 34, able-bodied,
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13:58
used to decide to have at least one child.
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过去至少生一个孩子,
现在减少了一半,
14:00
It's been cut in half.
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14:01
It's now less than a third, 27 percent.
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生孩子的人不到 1/3,即 27%。
14:04
As a result, people over the age of 60 in the US, pretty happy.
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结果,美国 60 岁以上的人很幸福,
14:08
People under the age of 30, not so much.
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30岁以下的人,没那么快乐。
14:10
Some of the lowest in the free world.
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幸福指数是自由世界中最低之一。
14:12
What can we do?
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怎么来改变?
14:13
Nothing wrong with America that can't be fixed with what's right with it.
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美国的问题可以用美国的优势来解决。
我们已经解决了棘手的问题。
14:17
We got the hard stuff figured out.
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所有这些问题都有相应的计划来应对,
14:18
There are programs to address all of these issues,
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不过要花很多钱,这是最难的部分,
14:21
they cost a lot of money, that's the hard part.
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但我们也解决了。
14:23
And we have figured this out.
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在财报电话会议后的五分钟内,
14:24
In just five minutes post an earnings call,
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我们就能为经济增加 2.5 万亿美元。
14:26
we can add a quarter of a trillion dollars to the economy.
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我们已解决了最难的部分,资源。
14:29
We've got the hard part figured out, the resources.
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14:33
We have the money, but we decide not to do it.
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我们有资金,却决定不作为。
14:35
This is per-capita spending on child care in the United States
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这是美国人均儿童保育支出,
14:38
relative to other nations.
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与其他国家的比较。
这是建房许可数据。
14:40
This is housing permits.
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14:42
Things are doable.
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我们的办法是可行的。
14:43
We increase minimum wage at 25 bucks an hour,
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将最低工薪提高到每小时 25 美元,
14:45
it goes into the economy.
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这些钱会进入经济循环。
14:47
The wonderful things about low- and middle-income households
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低等和中等收入家庭的一个好处是,
14:50
is they spend all their money.
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他们通常会花掉所有的钱。
14:52
We have to have or restore a progressive tax structure
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我们必须建立或恢复累进税收结构,
14:55
with alternative minimum tax on corporations and wealthy individuals.
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对公司和富人征收替代性最低税。
14:58
We need to refund the IRS.
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我们需要重新向国税局提供资金。
我们需要改革社会保障,
15:00
We need to reform Social Security.
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15:01
It should be based on whether you need the money,
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社保的提供应取决于你的需求,
而不是你的年龄。
15:04
not on how old you are.
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15:05
We need a negative income tax.
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我们需要建立负收入税。
15:06
My friend Andrew Yang screwed up a great idea,
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我的朋友杨安泽 搞砸了一个很棒的主意,
他给它贴错了标签。
15:09
but he branded it incorrectly.
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15:10
Instead of calling it UBI,
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他不该称其为全民基本收入(UBI),
15:11
he should’ve got Republicans on board by calling it a negative income tax.
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而应称其为负收入税, 这样就能得到共和党人的支持。
15:15
(Laughter)
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(笑声)
15:17
We need to eliminate the capital gains tax deduction.
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我们需要取消资本利得税减免。
15:19
When did we decide that the money that capital earns
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我们何时决定的,资本赚的钱
15:22
is more noble than the money that sweat earns?
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比汗水赚的钱更高尚?
15:25
Shouldn't it be flipped?
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不是应该反过来的吗?
15:26
(Applause)
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(掌声)
我们需要取消保护 所有算法推荐内容的第 230 条款。
15:29
We need to remove 230 protection for all algorithmically-elevated content.
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15:33
We need identity verification.
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我们需要身份验证。
15:35
The reason we can have identity verification
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我们之所以能够进行身份验证
15:37
is because we have a First Amendment.
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是因为我们有第一修正案。
15:40
Break up Big Tech.
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应该拆散大型科技公司,
其垄断造成日益增多的成本开销,
15:42
We have monopolies that are incurring greater and greater costs
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压在小型企业和家长们身上。 同样的原因造成这种局面,
15:45
on every small business and parents because again, see above,
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15:47
our representatives don't understand these technologies.
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那就是,我们的代表不懂这些科技。
15:50
We need to age-gate social media.
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我们需要对社交媒体设置年龄限制。
15:52
There's absolutely no reason anyone under the age of 16
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绝对没有理由让 16 岁以下的人
15:54
should ever be on social media.
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使用社交媒体。
15:56
(Applause)
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(掌声)
我们需要普惠的学前班。
15:59
We need universal pre-K.
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16:00
We need to reinstate the expanded child-tax credit.
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我们需要恢复扩大儿童税收抵免。
16:03
We need term limits, see above, Andrew Yang.
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我们需要限制任期, 也是杨安泽提到的。
16:06
We need income-based affirmative action.
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我们需要基于收入的平权行动。
16:08
Any visible signs of affirmative action make no sense at all.
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任何明显的平权措施都毫无意义。
16:11
You would rather be born gay or non-white,
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2086
你宁愿生来就是同性恋或非白人,
16:13
in the United States today than poor.
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也不愿当穷人,尤其在今天的美国。
16:15
And that's a sign of our progress
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这是我们进步的标志,
16:17
and our need to recalibrate who we give advantage to.
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2544
也表明我们需要重新调整 提供优势的对象。
平权行动,我是它的受益者——
16:20
Affirmative action, of which I’m a beneficiary --
385
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2878
16:22
I got Pell Grants, I got unfair advantage --
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3128
我得到了佩尔补助金, 我得到了不公平的优势——
平权行动很棒,但它应该基于颜色:
16:26
affirmative action is a wonderful thing, and it should be based on color:
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3462
16:29
it should be based on green.
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1376
以绿色为基础;
16:30
How much money you have or don't have.
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并且以个人财富为基础。
16:33
Expand college enrollment in vocational programs.
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2878
扩大大学的职业课程招生人数。
16:36
Mental health, ban phones in schools, invest in third places,
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3420
心理健康,禁止在学校使用手机, 投资开发社区公共社交场所,
16:39
Big Brothers and Sisters programs.
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还有大哥哥大姐姐项目。
16:41
We need national service.
393
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1543
我们需要国民服务。
我们需要告诉美国和加拿大人,
16:43
We need to tell people in the United States and Canada
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2836
16:45
that they live in the greatest countries in the world,
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他们生活在世界上最伟大的国家,
16:48
and we need to remind them of that every day
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我们需要每天提醒他们这点,
16:50
by exposing them to other great Americans where they feel connective tissue.
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4129
并让他们接触了不起的美国人, 从而感受到联结和共鸣。
16:54
We can do all of this.
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1836
我们可以做到所有这些,
16:56
We can do all of it.
399
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1251
没问题的,
16:57
We have the resources.
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1252
我们有足够的资源,
16:59
The question is, do we have the will?
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1794
但我们有这个意愿吗?
17:00
This is my last slide.
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这是最后一张幻灯片,
17:02
It is an emotionally manipulative slide to try and get you to like me more.
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3546
一张情感操纵幻灯片,好让你更喜欢我。
17:05
(Laughter)
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3629
(笑声)
17:09
But it does have a message.
405
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1835
但它确实在传达一个信息,
17:11
This is the whole shooting match.
406
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2169
是整个事情的关键。
你们没孩子的可以问下有孩子的。
17:14
Anybody here without kids, ask someone with kids.
407
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3337
17:17
You have your world of work,
408
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1376
你有自己的工作世界、
17:18
you have your world of friends, you have your world of kids.
409
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2836
朋友圈、与孩子共处的世界。
17:21
Something happens here, your whole world shrinks to this.
410
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3963
但如果发生什么不幸, 你的整个世界就会萎缩到这么一点。
(掌声)
17:29
(Applause)
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6298
17:35
So I present, as I wrap here, with just a few questions.
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因此,在结束时,我只想提几个问题。
17:38
One,
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第一,
17:40
if you acknowledge that our kids are the most important thing in our lives,
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如果你承认孩子是我们生命中最重要的,
17:43
that everything else we do here is meaningful,
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我们做的一切都是有意义的,
17:45
but our kids' well-being and prosperity is profound.
416
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2461
我们孩子的福祉和繁荣意义深远;
17:48
If you acknowledge that they're doing more poorly
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3086
如果你承认他们的生活
17:51
than previous generations.
418
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2002
比前几代人更差;
17:53
If you believe there’s a chance
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1585
如果你相信很可能
17:55
that the illusion of complexity has done nothing but provide cloud cover
420
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3503
复杂性的假象只是为了掩盖
17:58
for the unbelievable transfer of good will,
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2920
难以置信的转移,
18:01
of well-being and of prosperity from young to old.
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3545
既将好意、福祉和繁荣 从年轻人到老年人手中的转移。
18:05
And if you believe we can actually fix these problems
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如果你相信我们能够解决这些问题,
18:07
and we have the resources,
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1752
而且我们有足够的资源,
18:09
then I present to you, I posit,
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2461
那么我假设,
我预言,我希望这个问题
18:12
I augur the question that I hope has more veracity
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3169
18:15
than it did 17 minutes and 24 seconds ago.
427
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3712
比 17 分 24 秒前更加真实。
下面就是我的问题。
18:19
And that's the following question.
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2294
我们爱我们的孩子吗?
18:24
Do we love our children?
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1835
我叫斯科特·加洛韦,
18:27
My name is Scott Galloway,
430
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1334
18:28
I teach at NYU, and I appreciate your time.
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2044
我在纽约大学任教, 感谢你抽空过来。
(欢呼和掌声)
18:30
(Cheers and applause)
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3170
18:33
Thank you.
433
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1168
谢谢。
18:34
(Applause)
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(掌声)
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