How the US Is Destroying Young People’s Future | Scott Galloway | TED
6,531,105 views ・ 2024-05-02
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翻译人员: Sue Lu
00:04
My name is Scott Galloway,
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我叫斯科特·加洛韦
(Scott Galloway),
00:05
I teach at NYU,
and I appreciate your time.
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在纽约大学任教,
谢谢你抽空来听我演讲。
00:07
I have 44 slides and 720 seconds.
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我有 44 张幻灯片
和 720 秒的时间,
00:09
Let's light this candle.
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那我们就开始吧。
00:10
(Laughter)
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(笑声)
00:13
OK so for those of you who don't know me,
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如果你不认识我,
00:15
I'm actually a global television store.
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我是全球电视界的风云人物,真的。
00:17
True story.
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过去三年里,我参与了四部电视系列片。
00:18
I've had four TV series
in the last three years.
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00:20
Two of them have been canceled
before they were launched,
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其中两部在播出前就被取消了,
00:23
and two were canceled within six weeks.
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另外两部在播出六周内被取消。
让我们回顾一下。
00:25
Let's recap.
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(视频)SG:
如果我们想为此注入活力,
00:26
(Video) If we want to juice this thing,
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如果我们想要刺激经济增长,
彭博社,
00:28
if we want to put a cattle prod
up the ass of the economy.
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00:31
Bloomberg.
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财经新闻中最值得信赖的名字,
00:32
The most trusted name in financial news.
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00:34
Not for long.
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但好景不长啦。
00:36
Andrew Yang: I'm going to do
whatever I can for this country of ours.
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(视频)杨安泽:
我会为我们的国家尽力而为。
00:39
Scott Galloway: Jesus, come on, dude,
you’re 0 for two.
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SG:拜托,伙计,你已输了两次了。
00:43
(Video ends)
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(视频结束)
00:46
Face for podcasting.
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SG:播客里熟悉的面孔。
00:48
So first insight of the day.
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那么,今天的第一个顿悟是,
00:49
I'd like to be the first person
to welcome you to the last TED.
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我想第一个欢迎你莅临
最后一场 TED 大会。(笑声)
00:53
(Laughter)
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00:54
OK.
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00:55
By the way, it's clear --
what's it called?
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顺便问下 ——这叫什么?
我们来这儿干嘛的?
00:58
What are we here for?
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“勇者与智者”?
(TED2024 大会主题)
00:59
“The Brave and the Brilliant?”
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01:00
It's clear that Chris is a frustrated
soap opera producer.
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克里斯一定是受挫的肥皂剧制片人。
01:03
(Laughter)
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(笑声)
01:05
Essentially what we have here
is a telenovela
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其实我们这就像部肥皂剧,
01:08
where, after a night of unbridled passion
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一夜激情之后,
01:10
between Bill Gates and Malcolm Gladwell,
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比尔·盖茨和马尔科姆·格拉德威尔
01:12
they give birth to their
bastard love child,
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生下了他们的私生子,
01:16
Simon Sinek.
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西蒙·西内克(Simon Sinek)。
01:17
(Laughter)
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(笑声)
01:20
OK, I start us with a question.
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好吧,让我先提个问题。
01:22
Do we love our children?
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我们爱我们的孩子吗?
01:24
Sounds like an illegitimate
question, right?
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这听起来像废话,对吧?
01:26
Well, I'm going to try
and convince you otherwise.
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嗯,让我来试着说服你,
我们并不。
01:28
Essentially, as we go down generations,
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实际上,随着几代人的发展,
01:31
we're seeing that for the last
two generations,
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我们却发现在过去的两代人中,
01:33
people are making less money
on an inflation-adjusted basis.
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按通胀率调整后,人们赚的钱越来越少。
01:37
In addition, the cost of buying a home,
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此外,购房成本,
01:39
the cost of pursuing education,
continues to skyrocket.
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接受教育的成本,继续飞涨。
01:42
So the purchasing power, the prosperity,
is inversely correlated to age.
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因此,人们的购买力
和成功度与年龄成反比。
01:48
Simply put, as we get younger,
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简而言之,随着年龄的增长,
01:50
we're taking away opportunity
and prosperity from our youngest.
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我们正在夺走年轻人的机会和繁荣。
01:54
The social contract
that is now no longer in place
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社会契约已不复存在,
01:57
and for the first time
in the US's history,
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这是美国历史上第一次,
01:59
a 30-year-old is no longer doing as well
as his or her parents were at 30.
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30 岁的年轻人还没有
他们父母 30 岁时过得好。
02:02
This is a breakdown in the fundamental
agreement we have with any society,
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这破坏了我们与社会达成的基本契约,
02:06
and it creates rage and shame.
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并引发愤怒和羞耻感。
(掌声)
02:08
(Applause)
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02:09
As a result, people over the age of 55
feel pretty good about America,
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因此,55 岁以上的人感觉美国很好,
02:13
but less than one in five people
under the age of 34
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34 岁以下的人中只有不到五分之一
02:15
feel very good about America.
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有同感。
02:17
This creates an incendiary.
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这就会引发紧张局势、正义运动,
02:19
Righteous movements,
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削弱社会,最终感染机会主义流毒。
02:21
cuts to our society end up becoming
opportunistic infections
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02:24
because generally speaking,
young people have a warranted envy,
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总之,年轻人有理由羡慕,
02:27
they're pissed off and they're angry
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生气,甚至愤怒,
02:28
that they don't enjoy
the same spoils and prosperity
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因为他们享受不到同样的舒适和繁荣,
02:31
that were provided to our generation.
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似乎那是我们这一代的专享。
02:34
A decent proxy for how much we value
youth labor is minimum wage,
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最低工资可以代表我们对
青年劳动力的重视程度,
02:38
and we've kept it purposely pretty low.
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而我们有意将其保持在很低的水平。
02:40
If it had just kept pace
with productivity,
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如果它能与生产率的增速保持一致,
02:42
it'd be at about 23 bucks a share.
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现在就该是每小时约 23 美元。
02:44
But we've decided
to purposely keep it low.
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但我们有意把它压得很低,不可理瑜。
02:47
Out of reach.
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相对于中等家庭收入,中等房价飙升。
02:48
Median home price has skyrocketed
relative to median household income.
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02:52
As a result, pre-pandemic, the average
mortgage payment was 1,100 dollars,
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疫情前,平均
按揭付款额为 1,100 美元,
02:56
it's now 2,300 dollars
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现在为 2,300 美元,
02:57
because of an acceleration
in interest rates
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这是由于利率加速增长,
03:00
and the fact that the average home
has gone from 290,000 to 420.
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房屋均价从 29 万涨到 42 万美元。
03:04
By the way, the most expensive
homes in the world,
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顺便,世界上最昂贵的房屋,
03:08
based on this metric,
are number three, Vancouver.
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按该指标,温哥华排名第三。为什么?
03:10
Why?
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因为建房成本的 60%用于许可证。
03:11
Because 60 percent of the cost
of building a home goes to permits.
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03:15
Because guess what, the incumbents
that own assets have weaponized government
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另外,拥有资产的在位者利用政府职权
03:18
to make it very difficult for new entrants
to ever get their own assets,
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阻碍新入市者获取资产,
03:22
thereby elevating their own net worth.
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从而提高在位者自己的净资产。
03:24
This is the transfer I'm going
to be speaking about.
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这就是我要讲的转移,
03:27
(Applause)
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(掌声)
03:30
This has resulted in an enormous
transfer of wealth,
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巨大的财富转移。
03:33
where people over the age of 70
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70岁以上的人
03:35
used to control 19 percent
of household income,
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过去控制了 19%的家庭收入,
03:38
versus people under the age
of 40, used to control 12.
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而 40 岁以下的人控制了 12%。
03:41
Their wealth has been cut in half.
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如今年轻人的财富却被减少了一半,
03:43
This isn't by accident, it's purposeful.
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并非偶然,而是有意为之。
03:46
This is me at UCLA in 1987.
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这是 1987 年的我,
于加州大学洛杉矶分校(UCLA)。
03:48
I know your first thought is
I haven't changed a bit.
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我知道你首先想到的是,我一点都没变。
03:50
(Laughter)
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(笑声)
03:52
This is also Mia Silverio,
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这是米娅·西尔维里奥,
03:53
who is the analyst
who put together these slides.
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整理这些幻灯片的分析师。
顺便,米娅 26 岁。
03:55
By the way, Mia is 26.
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03:57
I did the math, just by virtue
of her being in this audience,
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我算了下,仅凭她也是现场听众,
04:00
it brings the average age
of the entire conference down 11 days.
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整个参会者的平均年龄
就被拉低了 11 天。
04:03
(Laughter)
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(笑声)
04:06
When I applied to UCLA,
the admissions rate was 76 percent.
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当年我申请入读 UCLA 时,
录取率是 76% 。
04:10
Today, it's nine percent.
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如今,只有 9% 。
04:12
I received a 2.23 GPA from UCLA.
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我的 UCLA 平均分(GPA)是 2.27。
04:14
I learned nothing but how to make
bongs out of household items
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我什么也没学到,
除了学会用家居物品做水烟壶,
04:17
and every line from "Planet of the Apes."
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以及背下《人猿星球》的每句台词。
04:19
And the greatest public school
in the world, Berkeley,
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而世界上最伟大的公立大学伯克利,
04:22
decided to let me in with a 2.27 GPA.
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仅凭我 2.27 的 GPA 就录取了我。
04:24
And that's what higher ed is about.
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这才是高等教育的意义所在。
04:27
Higher ed is about taking
unremarkable kids
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高等教育就是要培养平凡的孩子,
04:30
and giving them a shot
at being remarkable.
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给他们一个成就不凡的机会。
04:32
(Applause)
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(掌声)
04:36
And every year it's gotten more expensive.
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但每年一切都变得越来越昂贵。
04:39
Higher ed and homes and the ability --
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高等教育、住房和能力 ——
04:42
not only is higher ed
incredibly expensive,
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高等教育不仅非常昂贵,
04:44
it's not accessible.
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而且难以进入。
04:46
Because me and my colleagues
are drunk on luxury,
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因为我和我的同僚都沉迷于奢侈,
04:48
and I'll come back to that.
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一会儿我再来谈这个问题。
04:50
We've embraced the ultimate strategy.
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我们接受了终极策略。
04:52
Me and my colleagues in higher ed
wake up every morning
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我和我的高教同事每天早上醒来后,
04:54
and ask ourselves the same question
when we look in the mirror.
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对着镜子问自己同样的问题。
04:57
How can I increase my compensation
while reducing my accountability?
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如何赚得更多却担责更少?
(笑声)
05:02
(Laugter)
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我们发现了终极策略,
05:03
And we have found the ultimate strategy.
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05:05
It's called an LVMH strategy,
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称为 LVMH 战略,
05:07
where we artificially constrain supply
to create aspiration and scarcity
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旨在人为限制供应
以制造渴求和短缺,
05:11
such that we can raise tuition
faster than inflation.
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这样就能让学费涨速比通胀更快。
05:15
And old people and wealthy people
have done the same thing with housing.
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老人和富人在住房上也用了同样的策略。
05:18
All of a sudden, once you own a home,
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突然间,一旦你拥有了住房,
05:20
you become very concerned with traffic,
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你就会非常关心交通状况,
05:22
and you make sure that there's no
new housing permits.
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并会尽自己所能
阻止新的住房许可证被批准。
05:25
And here is a memo
to my colleagues in higher ed:
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这是给我高教同僚们的忠告:
05:30
we’re public servants,
not fucking Chanel bags.
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我们是公务员,
不是他妈的香奈儿包包。
05:33
(Applause)
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(掌声)
05:37
Harvard is the best example of this.
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哈佛就是最好的例子。
05:39
They've increased their endowment
in the last 40 years
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在过去的 40 年中,
他们的捐赠基金大幅增长,
05:42
and have decided
to expand their enrollment,
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于是决定增加招生人数,
05:44
their freshman class, by four percent.
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即多招 4 % 的新生。
05:46
Any university that doesn't grow
their freshman class
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但是,这些大学的招生增速
都应该超过人口增速,
05:49
faster than population
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因为它们拥有超过十亿美元捐赠基金,
05:50
that has over a billion dollars
in endowment
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05:52
should lose their tax-free status
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否则就不该享受免税待遇,
05:54
because they're no longer
in higher education.
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既然它们已不再属于高教机构,
05:56
They're a hedge fund offering classes.
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而是提供教育的对冲基金。
05:58
(Cheers and applause)
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(欢呼声和掌声)
06:04
My first recommendation:
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我的第一条建议是:
06:06
Biden should take some of that 750 billion
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拜登应该拿出
7500 亿美元经费中的一部分,
06:08
earmarked to bail out the one third
of people that got to go to college
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那些经费本来是用于
1/3 的人口的大学教育,
06:12
on the backs of the two thirds that didn't
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另外 2/3 的人口
由此被剥夺了大学教育的可能,
06:14
and give a billion dollars to our 500
greatest public institutions,
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所以,应该从经费中给前 500 名的
公立大学每一所拨款 10 亿美元,
06:18
size-adjusted, in exchange
for three things.
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按学校规模调整具体数额,
以换取三样东西。
06:20
One, they use technology and scale
to reduce tuition by two percent a year,
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第一,这些大学利用技术和规模
每年将学费减少 2%,
06:25
expand enrollments by six percent a year
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将入学人数增加 6%,
06:27
and increase the number
of vocational certifications
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并将职业认证
06:29
and nontraditional four-year
degrees by 20 percent.
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和非传统四年制学位数量增加 20%。
06:32
Where does that get us?
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这样做的后果是什么?
06:33
In just ten years,
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只需短短十年,
06:35
in just ten years, that doubles
the freshman seats
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新生录取率就将翻一番,
06:38
and cuts the cost in half.
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而学费减半。
这样做一点不算激进,
06:40
This isn't radical.
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八、九十年代的大学就是这样的。
06:41
This is called college
in the '80s and '90s.
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06:44
Another transfer of wealth.
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下面是另一种财富转移。
06:45
Look at what's happened to wages.
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看看工薪怎么回事。
哦,长上去了?
06:47
Oh, they've gone up?
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但没有企业利润长得多。
06:48
Not as much as corporate profits.
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06:50
There's a healthy tension
between capital and labor.
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资本和劳动力之间存在健康的紧张关系。
06:52
But for the last 40 years, capital
has been kicking the shit out of labor.
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但过去 40 年,
资本一直在践踏劳动力。
06:56
Well, you think, what about wages, right?
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你可能在想,工薪不是长上去了吗?
06:58
They've gone up.
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但如果与标准普尔比较,
其涨幅几乎可以忽略不计。
07:00
Well if you compare them
to the S and P, they barely register.
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07:05
It's been an amazing time to own assets.
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这是拥有资产的绝佳时机。
07:07
But your attempt to get
the certification or the income
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但是,为购置资产你得先有许可或收入,
07:09
such that you can acquire assets
has gotten harder and harder.
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这却变得越来越难。
07:12
In my class of 300 kids, it's never
been easier to be a billionaire,
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我班里有 300 名学生,
现在比任何时期都更易成为亿万富翁,
07:15
it's never been harder
to be a millionaire.
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但他们却很难成为百万富翁。
07:18
By the way, our job in higher ed
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顺遍,高等教育的职责
07:19
isn't to identify a top one
percent of people
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3003
不是找出拔尖的 1%,
07:22
who are freakishly remarkable
or have rich parents
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比如那些出类拔萃之辈或富家子弟,
07:25
and turn them into a super
class of billionaires.
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2294
然后将他们培养为超级阶层的亿万富翁,
07:27
It's to give the bottom 90
a chance to be in the top ten.
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而是应该帮助底层的 90%
进入顶尖的 10%。
07:30
(Applause)
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(掌声)
07:33
You know who doesn't need me
or higher education?
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你知道谁不需要我或者高等教育吗?
07:36
The top 10 percent.
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顶尖的 10%。
07:38
The whole point of higher ed is to give
the unremarkables, i.e. yours truly,
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高教的意义就在于给平凡人,如我,
07:42
who was raised by a single
immigrant mother,
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由单身移民母亲养大的孩子,
07:45
a shot of being remarkable.
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1793
一个出类拔萃的机会。
07:48
The transfer has been purposeful.
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1918
这种转移是蓄意的。
07:50
While the cohorts, corporations
and the ultra-wealthy
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3128
尽管那些群体、企业和超级富豪
07:53
continue to garner more
and more of our wealth,
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2210
继续获取越来越多我们的财富,
07:55
we have decided,
"I know, if they win the gold,
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2253
我们却拱手相让:
“好吧,如果他们赢得了金牌,
07:58
let’s give them the silver and the bronze,
and let’s lower their taxes.”
188
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3420
把银牌铜牌也给他们,
并降低他们的税款吧。”
08:01
This transfer is purposeful.
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1626
这种转移是目的明确的,
08:03
It’s not by accident, and it works.
190
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2878
并非巧合,且行之有效。
08:05
Senior poverty is way down,
and we should celebrate that.
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2711
老年人贫困率大幅下降,值得庆贺;
08:08
Meanwhile, child poverty
is flat to up.
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2586
但儿童贫困率没有改善甚至更糟。
08:12
The third rail.
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1210
第三点,
08:13
I'm going to talk about Social Security.
194
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1919
我要谈谈社会保障。
08:15
It would cost 11 billion dollars
to expand the child tax credit.
195
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3003
扩大儿童税收抵免将耗资 110 亿美元,
08:18
But that gets stripped out
of the infrastructure bill.
196
498619
2545
于是被从基础设施法案中删除了。
08:21
But the additional 135 billion dollars
a year to Social Security,
197
501164
3879
但每年额外的 1350 亿美元社保费用,
08:25
that flies right through Congress.
198
505084
1710
却能在国会轻松通过。
08:26
And every year we transfer
1.4 trillion dollars
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4630
而且,我们每年将 1.4 万亿美元
08:31
from a cohort that is
increasingly doing less well
200
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3587
从一个境况越来越差的群体
08:35
to the cohort that is
the wealthiest cohort
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2460
转移到最富有的群体,
08:37
in the history of this planet.
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517513
3128
该群体前所未有的富有。
08:41
I'm not against Social Security,
but the criteria should be if you need it,
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3629
我并不反对社保,
但标准应该是你是否需要它,
08:45
not whether you have a catheter.
204
525021
1752
而不是你是否插有导尿管。
08:47
80 percent of you,
205
527523
1919
观众里 80% 的人,
08:49
80 percent of you
have absolutely no reason
206
529484
2586
绝对没有理由
08:52
to ever take Social Security.
207
532111
2294
领取社保。
08:54
It is bankrupting our nation.
208
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1669
国家都快因此破产了。
08:56
And we have fallen under this mythology
209
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1877
我们已陷入这种神话之中,
08:57
that somehow it's this
great social program.
210
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2169
以为它是很棒的社保计划,完全不对,
09:00
No it's not.
211
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1167
这是财富从年轻人到老年人的大转移。
09:01
It's the great transfer of wealth
from young to old.
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2503
09:05
(Applause)
213
545083
2335
(掌声)
09:07
How is this happening?
214
547460
1960
为什么会如此?
09:09
Because our representatives
are in fact, representative.
215
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3212
因为我们的代表确实很有代表性,
09:12
Old people vote.
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2210
投票者大多是老年人。
09:14
Washington has become a cross
217
554884
1418
华盛顿已然成了一个交汇处,
09:16
between the "Land of the Dead"
and "The Golden Girls."
218
556344
2669
在《死亡之地》和《黄金女郎》之间游移。
09:19
(Laughter)
219
559013
2878
(笑声)
09:21
Quite frankly, this is fucking ridiculous.
220
561933
3670
坦率地说,这太荒谬了。
09:26
And if I sound ageist --
221
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1876
如果我听起来像年龄歧视者——
09:28
(Applause)
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1251
(掌声)
09:29
If I sound ageist, I am.
223
569315
1877
如果我听着像年龄歧视者,我就是。
09:31
And you know who else is ageist?
224
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1668
你知道还有谁是年龄歧视者吗?
09:32
Biology.
225
572902
1293
生物学。
09:34
(Laughter)
226
574195
2377
(笑声)
09:36
When Speaker Pelosi had her first child,
227
576572
2336
议长佩洛西(Pelosi)生下老大时,
09:38
get this, two thirds of households
didn't have color televisions,
228
578908
3128
2/3 的家庭还没有彩色电视,
09:42
and Castro had just declared martial law.
229
582036
2586
卡斯特罗刚刚(在古巴)宣布戒严令。
09:44
But she's supposed to understand
230
584622
1585
所以,她能理解
09:46
the challenges of a 17-year-old girl
who’s 5′ 9", 95 pounds,
231
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4379
身高 5 英尺 9 英寸、体重 95 磅的
17 岁女孩子面对的挑战,
09:50
getting tips on dieting and extreme
dieting from Facebook?
232
590628
3962
以及从脸书获取极限节食等建议吗?
09:54
She's supposed to understand
the challenges
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594590
2419
她能明白那些
09:57
that a 27-year-old single mother faces?
234
597009
3087
27 岁单身母亲面对的挑战吗?
10:00
By the way, young and dreamy.
235
600721
1669
顺便,看看这位,年轻而充满梦想。
10:02
(Laughter)
236
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1376
(笑声)
年轻而充满梦想。
10:03
Young and dreamy.
237
603766
1210
10:05
(Applause)
238
605017
4380
(掌声)
10:10
The great intergenerational theft
took place under the auspices of a virus.
239
610231
4212
这场大规模跨代窃取
是在病毒的掩护下展开的。
10:14
I know, let's use the greatest
health crisis in a century
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614443
3170
利用一个世纪以来最大的健康危机
10:17
to really speed-ball the transfer.
241
617655
2044
来加速财富转移。
10:19
This is the Nasdaq from 2008 to 2012.
242
619740
4171
这是 2008 年至 2012 年的
纳斯达克综合指数,
10:23
We let the markets crash.
243
623911
2044
我们任市场崩溃。
10:25
And by the way, you need churn,
244
625955
1501
顺便,市场需要剧烈震动,
10:27
you need disruption because it seeds
and recalibrates advantage and wealth
245
627498
3712
需要颠覆,这样才能
重置和调整优势及财富,
10:31
from the incumbents to the entrants.
246
631252
1752
将其从现有者转移给新生代。
10:33
It's a natural part of the cycle.
247
633004
2210
这是一个顺其自然的循环。
10:35
But wait, lately, no,
248
635214
2544
等等,现在却非如此了。
10:37
a million people dying would be bad.
249
637800
2294
一百万人垂死挣扎很糟。
10:40
But what would be tragic
is if we let the Nasdaq go down
250
640094
2669
但让纳斯达克指数一路下跌也很惨,
10:42
and guys like me lost wealth.
251
642805
1835
像我这样的人就会不再富有。
10:44
So we pumped the economy,
252
644640
1502
所以,我们就刺激经济,
10:46
which again, increased
the massive transfer of wealth.
253
646184
3294
再次增加财富的大规模转移。
10:49
The best two years of my life?
254
649520
1752
我一生中最美好的两年?
10:51
Covid -- more time with my kids,
more time with Netflix,
255
651314
2961
新冠时期——更多时间陪伴孩子,
更多时间看奈飞(Netflix),
10:54
and the value of my stocks
absolutely exploded.
256
654317
4462
同时我的股票暴涨。
10:58
And who has to pay for my prosperity?
257
658779
2420
谁被迫为我的繁荣买单呢?
11:01
Not me.
258
661199
1292
当然不是我。
11:02
Future generations who will have to deal
with an unprecedented level of debt.
259
662533
5130
子孙后代将被迫承担前所未有的债务。
11:07
Why am I here, and why do I
get the prosperity I enjoy?
260
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3045
为什么我能有今天,能够享受一切繁荣?
11:10
Because in 2008 we bailed out the banks,
261
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2169
因为在 2008 年我们救助了银行,
11:12
but we didn't bail out the economy.
262
672960
1710
却没有救助经济。
11:14
We let the markets fall.
263
674712
1627
我们让股市下跌。
11:16
So as I was coming into my prime
income-earning years,
264
676380
3045
所以,当我步入赚取收入的黄金时期,
11:19
I got to buy, no joke,
these stocks at these prices.
265
679425
3670
我就能买到这些低廉股票,不开玩笑。
11:23
This is where those stocks are now.
266
683137
2503
这是这些股票现在的价位。
11:25
Where does a young person find disruption?
267
685640
2752
年轻人到哪去找颠覆的机会呢?
11:28
When you bail out the baby boomer
owner of a restaurant,
268
688434
2711
当你救助婴儿潮一代的餐馆老板时,
11:31
all you're doing is robbing opportunity
from the 26-year-old graduate
269
691187
3295
你就是抢夺了 26 岁的毕业生
11:34
of a culinary academy that wants her shot.
270
694523
2586
从烹饪学院毕业后需要的成功机会。
11:37
We need disruption.
271
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1502
我们需要颠覆。
11:40
(Laughter)
272
700321
6715
(笑声)
11:54
I just like this slide.
273
714627
1168
我很喜欢这张幻灯片,
11:55
It has no context or relevance.
274
715795
1501
尽管它和今天的演讲没啥关联。
11:57
(Laughter and cheers)
275
717380
5755
(笑声和欢呼声)
12:09
We're economically attacking the young,
276
729892
2252
我们在经济上攻击年轻人,
同时为何不也打击下
他们的情感和心理健康呢?
12:12
but I know, let's attack their emotional
and mental well-being.
277
732186
3003
12:15
Let's take advantage
of the flaws in our species
278
735231
2627
我们在利用人类物种的缺陷,
12:17
with medieval institutions,
Paleolithic instincts
279
737858
3421
将中世纪的机构、旧石器时代的本能
12:21
and godlike technology.
280
741320
1877
和神一般的科技发扬光大。
12:23
I'm just going to say,
281
743239
1168
我要说,
12:24
I think Mark Zuckerberg has done more
damage to the young people in our nation
282
744448
3671
马克·扎克伯格
对我国的年轻人造成很多伤害,
自己却赚得史无前例的盆满钵满。
(掌声)
12:28
while making more money
than any person in history.
283
748160
2461
12:30
(Applause)
284
750663
1084
等等,或许可能更糟。
12:31
Oh, but wait, it could be worse.
285
751789
1543
我们让对手在
年轻人的脑中植入了芯片
12:33
It's as if we let an adversary implant
a neural jack into our youth
286
753374
3170
12:36
to raise a generation of civic, military
287
756544
2043
培养一代憎恨美国的
公民,军人以及商界领袖。
12:38
and business leaders that hate America.
288
758629
2086
12:41
How can we be this stupid?
289
761549
1752
我们怎么会如此愚蠢?
12:43
(Laughter)
290
763342
1126
12:45
This all adds up to a bunch of graphs
all headed up into the right.
291
765594
3212
造成这一切的问题就在上涨的图表中。
12:48
And what are they?
292
768848
1168
都是些什么图表呢?
第一个图是什么?自残率,
其数量在女孩中暴增。
12:50
What's the first one?
293
770016
1167
12:51
Oh, that's self-harm rates,
which have exploded,
294
771225
2419
12:53
especially among girls since my colleague
Jonathan Haidt pointed out,
295
773644
3295
我同事乔纳森·海特(Jonathan Haidt)
指出,手机社交媒体令其火上浇油。
12:56
it's really, really gone crazy
since social went on mobile.
296
776939
3504
13:00
What's the next one?
297
780484
1168
下一个是青少年抑郁症。
再接着是关于男女缺乏性生活。
13:01
Teens with depression.
298
781694
1627
13:03
The next one, men and women
not having sex.
299
783362
2670
13:06
Biggest fear of my parents was that I was
going to get in too much trouble.
300
786699
3545
我父母曾最担心我会惹祸太多。
老实说,我最大的担心
13:10
My biggest fear, honestly,
301
790244
1251
是我的孩子不会惹祸太多。
13:11
is that my kids aren't going
to get into enough trouble.
302
791495
2628
我建议每个观看该节目的年轻人,
13:14
My advice to every young person
watching this program
303
794165
2502
走出去,多喝点酒,做些糟糕的决定,
13:16
is go out, drink more
and make a series of bad decisions
304
796709
2711
从中学到关于生活。
13:19
that might pay off.
305
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1168
13:20
(Laughter and applause)
306
800629
2837
(笑声和掌声)
13:23
Next graph, cumulative gun deaths.
307
803507
1919
下一个图,累计枪击死亡人数。
13:25
You're more likely to be shot
in the United States
308
805468
2335
在美国被枪杀的可能性更大的
13:27
if you're a toddler
or an infant than a cop.
309
807803
2086
是婴幼儿而非警察。
13:29
Next graph, obesity, way up.
310
809889
2544
下一个图,肥胖症,上升幅度很大。
13:32
By the way, the industrial food complex
wants to addict you to shitty, fatty foods
311
812433
3921
工业化食品集团想让你
对低劣油腻食物上瘾,
13:36
so they can hand you over
to the industrial diabetes complex.
312
816354
3003
好把你交给糖尿病治疗集团。
13:39
We should not romanticize obesity.
313
819398
1710
我们不应该美化肥胖症,
它不会帮你找到真实的自我,
13:41
You're not finding your fucking truth.
314
821150
1835
13:42
You're finding diabetes.
315
822985
1335
而是找到糖尿病。
13:44
(Laughter and applause)
316
824320
2878
(笑声和掌声)
13:47
Overdose deaths, way up.
317
827239
1669
吸毒过量死亡人数大幅上升。
13:48
Deaths of despair.
318
828949
1210
绝望之死。
我高中那阵,导致死亡的是酒后驾车,
13:50
When I was in high school,
it was drunk driving,
319
830159
2252
13:52
now it's kids killing themselves.
320
832453
1627
现在是孩子们自杀。
年轻人再也不想生小孩了。
13:54
Young people don't want
to have kids anymore.
321
834121
2127
2/3 的 30 - 34 岁身体健全的人
13:56
Two-thirds of people
aged 30 to 34, able-bodied,
322
836248
2294
13:58
used to decide to have at least one child.
323
838542
2044
过去至少生一个孩子,
现在减少了一半,
14:00
It's been cut in half.
324
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1168
14:01
It's now less than a third, 27 percent.
325
841796
2877
生孩子的人不到 1/3,即 27%。
14:04
As a result, people over the age of 60
in the US, pretty happy.
326
844715
3253
结果,美国 60 岁以上的人很幸福,
14:08
People under the age of 30, not so much.
327
848010
2127
30岁以下的人,没那么快乐。
14:10
Some of the lowest in the free world.
328
850179
2252
幸福指数是自由世界中最低之一。
14:12
What can we do?
329
852431
1168
怎么来改变?
14:13
Nothing wrong with America that can't
be fixed with what's right with it.
330
853641
3462
美国的问题可以用美国的优势来解决。
我们已经解决了棘手的问题。
14:17
We got the hard stuff figured out.
331
857103
1626
所有这些问题都有相应的计划来应对,
14:18
There are programs to address
all of these issues,
332
858729
2378
不过要花很多钱,这是最难的部分,
14:21
they cost a lot of money,
that's the hard part.
333
861107
2210
但我们也解决了。
14:23
And we have figured this out.
334
863359
1418
在财报电话会议后的五分钟内,
14:24
In just five minutes
post an earnings call,
335
864777
2002
我们就能为经济增加 2.5 万亿美元。
14:26
we can add a quarter
of a trillion dollars to the economy.
336
866821
2752
我们已解决了最难的部分,资源。
14:29
We've got the hard part
figured out, the resources.
337
869615
2419
14:33
We have the money,
but we decide not to do it.
338
873160
2378
我们有资金,却决定不作为。
14:35
This is per-capita spending
on child care in the United States
339
875579
2920
这是美国人均儿童保育支出,
14:38
relative to other nations.
340
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1460
与其他国家的比较。
这是建房许可数据。
14:40
This is housing permits.
341
880000
2128
14:42
Things are doable.
342
882128
1209
我们的办法是可行的。
14:43
We increase minimum wage
at 25 bucks an hour,
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2544
将最低工薪提高到每小时 25 美元,
14:45
it goes into the economy.
344
885881
1669
这些钱会进入经济循环。
14:47
The wonderful things about low-
and middle-income households
345
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3044
低等和中等收入家庭的一个好处是,
14:50
is they spend all their money.
346
890594
1502
他们通常会花掉所有的钱。
14:52
We have to have or restore
a progressive tax structure
347
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3211
我们必须建立或恢复累进税收结构,
14:55
with alternative minimum tax
on corporations and wealthy individuals.
348
895349
3295
对公司和富人征收替代性最低税。
14:58
We need to refund the IRS.
349
898686
1293
我们需要重新向国税局提供资金。
我们需要改革社会保障,
15:00
We need to reform Social Security.
350
900020
1669
15:01
It should be based on whether
you need the money,
351
901730
2294
社保的提供应取决于你的需求,
而不是你的年龄。
15:04
not on how old you are.
352
904066
1210
15:05
We need a negative income tax.
353
905317
1502
我们需要建立负收入税。
15:06
My friend Andrew Yang
screwed up a great idea,
354
906861
2252
我的朋友杨安泽
搞砸了一个很棒的主意,
他给它贴错了标签。
15:09
but he branded it incorrectly.
355
909113
1460
15:10
Instead of calling it UBI,
356
910614
1335
他不该称其为全民基本收入(UBI),
15:11
he should’ve got Republicans on board
by calling it a negative income tax.
357
911949
3504
而应称其为负收入税,
这样就能得到共和党人的支持。
15:15
(Laughter)
358
915453
1751
(笑声)
15:17
We need to eliminate
the capital gains tax deduction.
359
917246
2628
我们需要取消资本利得税减免。
15:19
When did we decide
that the money that capital earns
360
919874
2961
我们何时决定的,资本赚的钱
15:22
is more noble than the money
that sweat earns?
361
922835
2628
比汗水赚的钱更高尚?
15:25
Shouldn't it be flipped?
362
925463
1251
不是应该反过来的吗?
15:26
(Applause)
363
926755
2253
(掌声)
我们需要取消保护
所有算法推荐内容的第 230 条款。
15:29
We need to remove 230 protection
for all algorithmically-elevated content.
364
929008
4254
15:33
We need identity verification.
365
933304
1793
我们需要身份验证。
15:35
The reason we can have
identity verification
366
935139
2419
我们之所以能够进行身份验证
15:37
is because we have a First Amendment.
367
937600
2419
是因为我们有第一修正案。
15:40
Break up Big Tech.
368
940769
1252
应该拆散大型科技公司,
其垄断造成日益增多的成本开销,
15:42
We have monopolies that are incurring
greater and greater costs
369
942021
2961
压在小型企业和家长们身上。
同样的原因造成这种局面,
15:45
on every small business and parents
because again, see above,
370
945024
2878
15:47
our representatives don't
understand these technologies.
371
947902
2669
那就是,我们的代表不懂这些科技。
15:50
We need to age-gate social media.
372
950613
1585
我们需要对社交媒体设置年龄限制。
15:52
There's absolutely no reason
anyone under the age of 16
373
952239
2586
绝对没有理由让 16 岁以下的人
15:54
should ever be on social media.
374
954825
1585
使用社交媒体。
15:56
(Applause)
375
956410
2669
(掌声)
我们需要普惠的学前班。
15:59
We need universal pre-K.
376
959079
1669
16:00
We need to reinstate
the expanded child-tax credit.
377
960789
2962
我们需要恢复扩大儿童税收抵免。
16:03
We need term limits,
see above, Andrew Yang.
378
963792
2461
我们需要限制任期,
也是杨安泽提到的。
16:06
We need income-based affirmative action.
379
966295
1919
我们需要基于收入的平权行动。
16:08
Any visible signs of affirmative
action make no sense at all.
380
968214
3586
任何明显的平权措施都毫无意义。
16:11
You would rather be born gay or non-white,
381
971842
2086
你宁愿生来就是同性恋或非白人,
16:13
in the United States today than poor.
382
973969
1877
也不愿当穷人,尤其在今天的美国。
16:15
And that's a sign of our progress
383
975846
1627
这是我们进步的标志,
16:17
and our need to recalibrate
who we give advantage to.
384
977473
2544
也表明我们需要重新调整
提供优势的对象。
平权行动,我是它的受益者——
16:20
Affirmative action,
of which I’m a beneficiary --
385
980017
2878
16:22
I got Pell Grants,
I got unfair advantage --
386
982937
3128
我得到了佩尔补助金,
我得到了不公平的优势——
平权行动很棒,但它应该基于颜色:
16:26
affirmative action is a wonderful thing,
and it should be based on color:
387
986065
3462
16:29
it should be based on green.
388
989527
1376
以绿色为基础;
16:30
How much money you have or don't have.
389
990903
2544
并且以个人财富为基础。
16:33
Expand college enrollment
in vocational programs.
390
993489
2878
扩大大学的职业课程招生人数。
16:36
Mental health, ban phones in schools,
invest in third places,
391
996408
3420
心理健康,禁止在学校使用手机,
投资开发社区公共社交场所,
16:39
Big Brothers and Sisters programs.
392
999870
1627
还有大哥哥大姐姐项目。
16:41
We need national service.
393
1001497
1543
我们需要国民服务。
我们需要告诉美国和加拿大人,
16:43
We need to tell people
in the United States and Canada
394
1003040
2836
16:45
that they live in the greatest
countries in the world,
395
1005918
2544
他们生活在世界上最伟大的国家,
16:48
and we need to remind them
of that every day
396
1008462
2086
我们需要每天提醒他们这点,
16:50
by exposing them to other great Americans
where they feel connective tissue.
397
1010589
4129
并让他们接触了不起的美国人,
从而感受到联结和共鸣。
16:54
We can do all of this.
398
1014718
1836
我们可以做到所有这些,
16:56
We can do all of it.
399
1016595
1251
没问题的,
16:57
We have the resources.
400
1017846
1252
我们有足够的资源,
16:59
The question is, do we have the will?
401
1019139
1794
但我们有这个意愿吗?
17:00
This is my last slide.
402
1020975
1167
这是最后一张幻灯片,
17:02
It is an emotionally manipulative slide
to try and get you to like me more.
403
1022142
3546
一张情感操纵幻灯片,好让你更喜欢我。
17:05
(Laughter)
404
1025729
3629
(笑声)
17:09
But it does have a message.
405
1029942
1835
但它确实在传达一个信息,
17:11
This is the whole shooting match.
406
1031819
2169
是整个事情的关键。
你们没孩子的可以问下有孩子的。
17:14
Anybody here without kids,
ask someone with kids.
407
1034029
3337
17:17
You have your world of work,
408
1037408
1376
你有自己的工作世界、
17:18
you have your world of friends,
you have your world of kids.
409
1038784
2836
朋友圈、与孩子共处的世界。
17:21
Something happens here, your whole
world shrinks to this.
410
1041620
3963
但如果发生什么不幸,
你的整个世界就会萎缩到这么一点。
(掌声)
17:29
(Applause)
411
1049086
6298
17:35
So I present, as I wrap here,
with just a few questions.
412
1055426
3420
因此,在结束时,我只想提几个问题。
17:38
One,
413
1058887
1252
第一,
17:40
if you acknowledge that our kids
are the most important thing in our lives,
414
1060139
3587
如果你承认孩子是我们生命中最重要的,
17:43
that everything else
we do here is meaningful,
415
1063767
2169
我们做的一切都是有意义的,
17:45
but our kids' well-being
and prosperity is profound.
416
1065936
2461
我们孩子的福祉和繁荣意义深远;
17:48
If you acknowledge
that they're doing more poorly
417
1068439
3086
如果你承认他们的生活
17:51
than previous generations.
418
1071567
2002
比前几代人更差;
17:53
If you believe there’s a chance
419
1073569
1585
如果你相信很可能
17:55
that the illusion of complexity
has done nothing but provide cloud cover
420
1075154
3503
复杂性的假象只是为了掩盖
17:58
for the unbelievable
transfer of good will,
421
1078699
2920
难以置信的转移,
18:01
of well-being and of prosperity
from young to old.
422
1081660
3545
既将好意、福祉和繁荣
从年轻人到老年人手中的转移。
18:05
And if you believe we can
actually fix these problems
423
1085247
2503
如果你相信我们能够解决这些问题,
18:07
and we have the resources,
424
1087791
1752
而且我们有足够的资源,
18:09
then I present to you, I posit,
425
1089543
2461
那么我假设,
我预言,我希望这个问题
18:12
I augur the question that I hope
has more veracity
426
1092046
3169
18:15
than it did 17 minutes
and 24 seconds ago.
427
1095215
3712
比 17 分 24 秒前更加真实。
下面就是我的问题。
18:19
And that's the following question.
428
1099261
2294
我们爱我们的孩子吗?
18:24
Do we love our children?
429
1104016
1835
我叫斯科特·加洛韦,
18:27
My name is Scott Galloway,
430
1107061
1334
18:28
I teach at NYU,
and I appreciate your time.
431
1108437
2044
我在纽约大学任教,
感谢你抽空过来。
(欢呼和掌声)
18:30
(Cheers and applause)
432
1110522
3170
18:33
Thank you.
433
1113734
1168
谢谢。
18:34
(Applause)
434
1114943
1669
(掌声)
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