How we can curb climate change by spending two percent more on everything | Jens Burchardt

Transcriber:

翻译人员: Elijah Yang 校对人员: Shuhui Huang

这是一块煤炭。

它是不久前， 在德国的鲁尔工业区被开采的。

它的开采地离我长大的地方 大概有 50 英里。

事实上，

煤炭是非常高端的。

This is a lump of coal.

它非常的干， 它很大程度上由碳元素组成。

It was mined a while ago in the Ruhr region in Germany,

这两个因素说明： 你不仅能燃烧煤炭来产生能量和热量，

about 50 miles from where I grew up.

As coal goes, it's actually quite high-end.

你还可以用它来冶炼钢铁。

It's very dry, it has a high share of carbon in it.

所以， 我为什么要跟你说这些呢？

Both those things mean you can't only burn it

在这个演讲结束的时候，

我希望能说服你，

to produce power and heat,

我们能在与气候变化的伟大战斗中 向前迈进巨大的一步。

but you can use it to make steel.

Now why am I telling you this?

而这仅仅需要我们 多花百分之一到二的钱来买东西。

By the end of this talk,

I want to have convinced you that we can make a huge step forward

同时， 煤炭的使用历程， 也会帮我完成这个目的。

in the great fight against climate change

by just spending one to two percent more on things that we buy.

但是……

让我们回到钢铁的话题。

关于炼钢， 你必须知道的是： 这是一个极其残酷的过程。

And the path of this coal is going to help me with it.

这些巨大的炼钢炉 分开然后重组元素和物质。

But ...

back to steel.

What you have to know about steelmaking is that it's a humblingly brutal process.

这样的技法已经存在于世上数百万年。

These huge furnaces that tear apart and recombine elements and materials

炼钢炉的温度 可以达到 2000 多摄氏度。

that have literally been around for millions of years,

这是工业化的一个巨大胜利。

但同时也是对气候十分不利。

at temperatures of up to more than 2,000 degrees Celsius.

在所有人为的排放中， 超过百分之五的排放来自钢铁的冶炼。

It's a triumph of industrialization,

在我们面对的所有保护气候的挑战中，

but it's terrible for the climate.

More than five percent of all man-made emissions

这一项极难解决。

那么， 是为什么那么难解决呢？

currently come from making steel.

第一个是科学技术的原因。

And of all the many challenges we face to save the climate,

现在确实存在制造低碳钢的科技。

this one's particularly hard to solve.

比如， 我们可以捕获二氧化碳， 然后把它排到土地里。

Now, why is that?

这叫碳捕获和存储技术。

The first reason is technical.

或者， 我们可以采取崭新的冶钢流程。

There are technologies to produce low-carbon steel.

比如说， 使用低碳的氢气而不是煤炭。

We can, for example, capture the CO2

and pump it back under the earth --

但是， 这些方法 现在都还停留在在试验阶段。

that's called carbon capture and storage.

第二个是经济的原因。

Or we can move to entirely new processes

that, for example, run on low-carbon hydrogen instead of coal.

制作低碳钢将会是个昂贵的过程。

But all of these are currently only at a piloting stage.

为了说明这一点，

让我们比较一下在其他领域钢的挑战。

The second reason is economical.

比如说，制造业。

This is likely going to be expensive.

And to illustrate that,

大多数的排放来自于你用的能源，

let's compare the steel challenge to that of companies in other sectors.

比如给传送带，机器人，驱动器等用的。

If you're in, say, manufacturing,

你可以通过 使用可再生的能源来取代。

most of your emissions come from the power you consume

这并不贵。

for things like conveyor belts, robots, drives and so on.

大多数情况，每吨二氧化碳 只会花费你不到 10 欧元。

You can eliminate them by switching to renewables,

兴许还更少。

其他公司拥有更多能源密集型的工作，

which isn't that expensive anymore.

那会产生很多热量，

In most cases, this won’t cost you more than 10 euros per ton of CO2,

他们因为直接燃烧化石燃料 而会产生更多的气体排放。

probably a lot less.

Other companies have more energy-intensive processes

因此用可再生的能源来替代 会更贵一点。

that require a lot of heat to operate.

假设在他们的工作过程之中，

They generate more emissions by burning fossil fuels directly,

用可再生能源来替代会花费平均五倍的价钱，

差不多每吨二氧化碳要 40 到 50 欧元。

and that's more expensive to get rid of.

Now let's assume, across all of their processes,

如果一家公司想要达到零排放，

it costs them, on average, five times as much,

要么它要么需要巨额投资， 来升级所有现存的工厂，

somewhere between 40 and 50 euros per ton of CO2.

Now if a steel company wants to move to zero emissions,

和那些可以把二氧化碳

从工厂转移到储存点的基础设施；

it either needs to invest significantly in upgrading all of its current plants

要么它需要关闭所有旧工厂 并修建全新的新能源工厂，

and into infrastructure that transports CO2

例如依靠低碳的氢气来发动的工厂。

from its plants to a storage site,

根据研究结果， 这会花费十倍之多，

or it needs to close all its plants and build entirely new ones

每吨二氧化碳大概 100 欧元。

that, for example, run on low-carbon hydrogen.

生产一吨钢的价格也会上升 50%，

According to industry studies, this can cost them 10 times as much,

更糟的是，

in the ballpark of 100 euros per ton of CO2,

钢铁公司所处于商品行业，

and the costs for a ton of steel could increase by as much as 50 percent.

几乎完全靠低价竞争。

而且现在它的利润丰厚，

Now, to make matters even worse,

这意味着减少二氧化碳的排放很贵。

our steel company operates in the commodity business;

并且每吨二氧化碳的利润极低。

it almost exclusively competes on price.

而且钢铁产业也就和

And it has shitty margins already:

少数几个其他产业并肩，

that means saving CO2 is expensive,

都被统称为“极难减碳俱乐部”。

but its profit per ton of CO2 is very low,

这些行业，就像水泥业和化学业，

and this puts it in the uncomfortable company

都有着同样复杂的生产过程，

of only a few other sectors,

且需要高温操作，

the so-called hard-to-abate sectors club,

或是航空和运输业，

all the industries like cement and chemicals,

需要大量能源

that have equally messy industrial processes

来运输大件货品。

and require very high temperatures to operate,

而这些极难减碳的行业，

or aviation and shipping,

that need to invest a lot of energy

正是国际气候行动的难处之一。

由于有关低碳化的言论大多很激进：

to move very large and heavy objects over longer distances.

And hard-to-abate sectors are one of the larger dilemmas

某些活跃分子便会说，

“你们的排放正在伤害地球威胁人类，

of international climate action,

because discussions around decarbonization usually go roughly like this:

你们必须马上整顿改进。”

这些公司便会回复，

Well, the activist says,

“我知道。 但如果我投入低碳的技术，

"Your emissions are harming the planet and threatening humanity.

而其他公司不这么做，

我的生产成本就会更高， 就没生意了。

You need to change immediately."

And the company answers,

这对气候没好处。

"I know. But if I invest in low-carbon technologies,

所以首先， 我需要一个公平竞争的环境。”

他们两者都可以理解，

and the next guy doesn't,

we'll be more expensive and go out of business.

但减低排放已经迫在眉睫，

It won't help the climate.

并且，一个公平竞争的环境，

So first, I need a level playing field."

打个比方，

假如所有的国家 都同意彼此制订的碳排放价格，

Both understandable positions,

but bringing down emissions is kind of urgent,

那或许我这辈子 都见不到这谈判结果生效。

and a global level playing field,

因此，这也就是谈判陷入僵局之处。

in which, say,

all countries agree on one mutual price for carbon emissions,

也因此，这也是我的谈话结束之处。

probably won't materialize anymore in my lifetime.

但如果真就这样结束， 我便不会被邀请来讲话了，

So this is where the discussions usually reach a stalemate,

并且我向你们保证，

拯救我们的星球 并不需要人人倾家荡产。

and where my talk would therefore end.

因此我们来跟循这块煤炭，

But would it end here, I wouldn’t have been invited to hold it,

与它共放思维。

and I already promised you

上次讲到，它帮助炼钢。

that saving the planet does not have to break the bank.

So let's maybe follow the path of our lump of coal

虽然有气候的影响，

但钢是我们经济的主要组成部分之一。

just a little further.

The last time we left it, it had helped make steel,

它存在于万物之中，

从巨大的结构到日常的家居物品，

which, climate impact notwithstanding,

如冰箱和洗衣机，

is one of the key building blocks of our economies.

我们用它修建了风力发电机

It's in many, many things,

来从能源方面减少排放。

from huge structures to everyday household items

我们用它造车，

like refrigerators or washing machines.

这也是我接下来要讲的东西。

We use it to build wind turbines,

which we need to save emissions in the power sector,

在今天的标准的汽车里，

and we use it to build our cars,

钢可以在很多不同的部分被发现。

你可以假设一个 3 万欧元的

which is the part of the journey I'd like us to follow next.

欧洲中型轿车，

Now, in today's typical car,

包含了一吨钢。

steel can be found in many, many different parts.

You can assume that an average European midsized sedan

在欧洲，生产一吨钢，

会产生略少于两吨的碳排放。

with a 30,000 euro price tag

contains about one ton of it.

在别的国家，如中国， 这个数字会更大，大约两吨。

To produce one ton of steel, in Europe,

generates a bit less than two tons of carbon emissions.

我们已经知道，

过渡到低碳钢会增加它的生产成本，

大约 50%。

In other countries, like China, it's a bit more, so let's round to two.

若我们很早便了解到这一点，

Now we've learned earlier

并且人类真正地 将心思、力气、金钱投入进去

that moving to low-carbon steel can increase its costs

那兴许它的成本 会随着时间而降低。

by as much as 50 percent.

If history tells us anything,

但，为了这个论点， 我们来紧扣成本这块，

then these costs will likely decrease over the long run,

if humans truly put their mind, their muscle, their money behind it.

多出 50% 的成本，

对于欧洲中型轿车这个例子， 就应该会多出……

But, for the sake of this argument, let's stick to these costs,

我算算……

200 欧元。

plus 50 percent.

In the case of our European midsize sedan, this translates into ...

等等，不对吧。

那还不到最终售价的 1%。

wait for it ...

我们来做做数学题。

200 euros.

如果车的售价是3万欧元， 那你最终实付多少钱？

Wait, that can't be right.

That's not even a percent of the final sales value.

好吧首先，汽车公司需要挣钱。

Well, let's do the math.

因此第一个 20% 给它的利润和营销，

If you spend 30,000 euros for a car, what are you actually paying for?

整个销售机构 和杂七杂八的。

Well, first of all, the car company needs to make money.

汽车需要被组装——

另一个 20% 便给它的生产。

So the first 20 percent are for its margin, for marketing,

还有车的零部件要被组装，

the whole sales organization, overhead and so on.

40% 给提供商。

在整个过程中，

The car needs to be assembled --

很多东西都从这儿装到那儿，

another 20 percent goes to production.

还有交通运输。

First, the parts of the car have to be assembled --

那么只有你交付的 15% 才是车的本钱，

40 percent go to suppliers.

才是车辆真正材料的价格。

In this whole process,

many things need to be moved from A to B and back,

电池，铝，塑料，玻璃这类，

so more goes to transportation.

Now only 15 percent of the price of the car

和 2% 的钢。

也就是说，

is actually for the materials in it.

在我可以在商店里买到车的时候

Things like the battery, aluminum, plastics, glass,

汽车 90% 的材料

and two percent for the steel.

This means that materials

只占了总成本的 15%。

that make up 90 percent of a car's emission footprint

这意味着尽管公司要多花费50%的钱

by the time that I can buy it in the dealership

来购买汽车制造所需要的钢，

make up only 15 percent of its costs.

这只在最终定价上

And it means that even [though] the car company has to pay 50 percent more

增加了很少的利润加成。

现在你又会理由充分地说道，

for the steel in the car,

this only translates into a very small markup

钢并不是增加排放的唯一因素。

当然了。这是正确的。

on my final sales price.

我们刚刚也做了 有关商品和流程的计算，

Now you would rightly argue that steel isn't the only thing

计算的结果是 制造一个 3万欧元的汽车，

creating emissions in the car.

And that's, of course, correct.

如果只用碳中和的材料，

So we did the math for other commodities and processes as well.

只会使价格增加到 3 万 5 百欧元。

And it turns out building a 30,000 euro car

只多了 5 百欧元。

out of exclusively carbon-neutral materials

还不到 2%。

would only increase its price to 30,500 euros,

买一个夕阳红色的车代替黑色的，

only 500 euros extra.

就会多花费 7 百欧元。

It's less than two percent more.

花式轮辋——多出 1 千欧元。

羽毛车椅——多出2 千欧元。

Buying that same car in sunset red instead of black

你大概知道什么意思。

would cost me 700 euros extra.

我们来想象一下：

还是之前的讨论， 不过我们在中间加一个汽车制造商。

Fancier rims -- 1,000 euros extra.

Leather seats -- 2,000 euros extra.

活跃分子会说道，

You get the picture.

So let's imagine:

“这些排放正在伤害地球威胁人类。

that same discussion we had earlier, but with a car producer in the middle,

你们必须马上整顿改进。“

然后汽车生产商说，

where the activist says,

“我知道。

"Your emissions are harming the planet and threatening humanity.

但如果我投入低碳材料而别人不这么做，

You need to change immediately."

我的汽车就会贵 2%。

And now a car producer answers,

"I know.

等等.……

But if I invest in low-carbon materials, and the next guy doesn't,

我的顾客会支付那 2% 的。

然后我可以把我所有的车 定为碳中和来卖。

my car will be two percent more expensive.

”钢铁制造商，

你的钢在制造太多的排放，

Wait ...

My customers might actually pay that.

你必须马上整顿改进。”

“我可以给你制作低碳钢，

And I can market all my cars as carbon-neutral.

Steel producer,

但这会更贵。”

“贵多少？”

your steel is creating too many emissions in my car.

我们现在有个对话了。

You have to change immediately."

几乎反映了当下的情况

"I can make low-carbon steel for you,

but it will be more expensive."

是如何造成全球变暖的。

"How much more expensive?"

我们买的大多数东西 都背着一个满是废气的背包，

And now, we at least have a dialog.

Almost everything about the way we currently live

但只有少数人意识到这一点。

currently contributes to global warming.

我想让你们知道的是，

我们可以通过 在商品上多花费 1% 到 2%。

Most of the things we buy come with a heavy emissions backpack

来消除大量的气体排放。

that few of us are really aware of.

What I want you to understand

我们已经知道 生产一个碳中和的汽车会花费多少。

is that we can eliminate a lot of these emissions

by just spending one to two percent more on things that we buy.

那一个碳中和的手机呢？

多 3 欧元。

只需要在两年内 每个月多花 13 欧分。

We've learned what it would cost to produce a carbon-neutral car.

一件碳中和的牛仔裤呢？ 多 60 到 70 欧分。

So how about a carbon-neutral smartphone?

Three euros extra.

甚至用碳中和的材料建一个房子。

That's 13 cents a month on a two-year plan.

A carbon-neutral pair of jeans? 60 to 70 cents extra.

只会增加 2% 到 3% 的成本。

地理位置好的地方还要更少。

Even building a house out of carbon-neutral materials

几乎一半的全球变暖都是由于

这六条提供链导致的，

would only increase its costs by two to three percent,

and even less in good locations.

而我们可以通过调整购买的决策， 直接改变它们。

There are six supply chains

食物，制造业，时尚，

that are responsible for almost half of all global emissions

消费商品，电子产品，当然了还有机动车。

that we can impact directly through our purchasing decisions.

就拿汽车举个例子，

Those are things like food, construction, fashion,

材料的费用 只在最终售价中占很少一部分。

consumer goods, electronics and, of course, automotive.

对于国际气候行动，

And just like in the car example,

解决排放的问题会是人类的一大步。

materials make up only a fraction of the final sales price in most of them.

这会使面对消费者的公司

因为可以通过营销碳中和产品获利，

Addressing these emissions could be a huge step forward

而减少他们大多的碳排放。

for international climate action.

It would enable customer-facing companies

而大多数的气体排放， 都存在于类似钢铁业的行业当中，

that can benefit from marketing carbon-neutral products

这些行业可以承担多出的花费，

to address a multiple of their direct emissions footprints.

有的还存在于 不严格监管的国家里。

And many of these emissions are in sectors like steel,

拿我穿的匡威举个例。

that can shoulder the costs on their own.

我愿意为查克多花费 2%，

Some are in countries that don’t yet regulate emissions aggressively enough.

就可以减少它们在中国的生产排放。

我当然很清楚， 不是每一个人都可以承担

Take the Chucks I’m wearing now.

这多出的 2%。

Me being willing to spend two percent more on them

但我们要弄清楚 不花这钱的经济后果，

could have reduced the production emissions in China.

更不用说

Now I'm well aware that not everyone can easily afford

对人类的后果

to spend these two percent extra,

将会更糟。

but we have to be aware that the economic consequences,

我们必须达到碳中和。

但公平地将碳中和的代价 分摊给每个人，

let alone the human ones,

又是社会需要解决的。

of not spending this money,

would be far, far worse.

众多挑战之一。

We have to move to net zero.

我也并不是在说这会很轻松。

Fairly distributing the costs of this

理解提供链的气体排放是很复杂的。

is one of the many challenges

that we as a society will need to deal with.

和提供商一起解决这些问题， 需要很大的努力。

I'm also not saying that this will be easy.

Understanding supply-chain emissions is unbelievably cumbersome.

但我们需要说的是， 对于很多公司，

以仅高出 1% 至 2% 的价格，

Engaging with suppliers to address them takes a lot of effort.

来销售一个真正碳中和商品的机会，

What we would argue is that, for many companies,

是很值得的。

the chance to market a truly carbon-neutral product

想象一下，

你站在商店里，

at just a one-to-two percent higher price

面前有两个相同品牌的商品，

should be well worth this effort.

其中一个是碳中和的—— 多花 2%，

Just imagine:

you're standing in a store,

你会选择哪一个？

with two brands of the same product in front of you.

One is carbon-neutral -- it costs two percent more.

想象你有一个机会，

可以去给这两个公司中的一个工作，

Which of these two products would you rather buy?

你会选哪一个呢？

想象你是一个投资人。

Imagine you had the chance

这两个公司， 你又会选哪一个来赌上你的钱呢？

to work for either one of these two companies.

Who would you rather work for?

哪一个公司又会笑到最后呢？

Imagine you were an investor.

On which of these two companies would you bet your money?

为了解决气候大危机， 我们要弄明白的还有很多。

Which of these two do you think will be more successful in the long run?

还有很多挑战， 我们需要面对并克服。

但经济并不一定是挑战之一。

To solve the climate crisis, there's still a lot we need to figure out.

谢谢。

There are many challenges we need to overcome.

But economics don't have to be one of them.

Thank you.