Climate Action Is on the Cusp of Exponential Growth | Simon Stiell | TED

翻译人员: Ruixuan Chen 校对人员: Yip Yan Yeung

I want you to imagine it’s 1992,

我想让大家想象一下， 现在是 1992 年，

and you're talking to a telecoms expert.

你正在与电信专家交谈。

She tells you that mobile phone text messaging is going to fundamentally

她告诉你手机短信

将彻底改变我们的沟通方式。

change the way we communicate.

You think,

你想道，

"But we use our phones just for voice calls.

“但我们只用手机来进行语音通话。

Why on Earth am I going to go from this

我到底为什么要放弃它

to tapping on a screen with my fingers and my thumbs?"

去用我的手指和拇指点击屏幕？

In 1992, the first text message was sent.

1992 年，第一条短信被发送了。

After a slow start,

在缓慢的启动之后，

text-based services exploded.

基于文本的服务呈爆炸式增长。

Today, over 23 billion messages are sent

这为我们今天所看到的

智能手机革命的道路打下了基础。

every single day.

别的技术趋势也遵循了同样的曲线。

This paved the way for the smartphone revolution

that we have seen today.

我知道我们有多难以理解

And other technology trends have followed that same curve.

并预测“指数变化”指的是什么。

I know how much we struggle to comprehend

因为当技术革命于 1993 年开始时，

and predict what “exponential change” means.

我正在诺基亚工作。

Because I was at Nokia in 1993

现在，作为联合国气候变化的负责人，

when that technological revolution started.

我来这里是想告诉大家，1992 年手机

And now as head of UN Climate Change,

和其他革命性转变的情况

I'm here to tell you that what was true for mobile phones back in 1992,

同样适用于今天的气候行动。

and other revolutionary shifts,

为了使气候行动从线性步伐迈向指数步伐，

is also true for climate action today.

实现这一目标不仅仅是我的工作。

To make climate action go from linear to exponential pace,

这也是你的工作。

我们都知道气候影响每天都变得越来越严重。

it's not just my job to make it happen.

It's also your job, too.

我们需要看到的雄心壮志，减排，

We all know that climate impacts are hitting harder and harder every day.

适应冲击，

和为了应对危机的提供手段

The ambition we need to see, reducing emissions,

严重缺乏。

adapting to impacts

and providing the means to address the crisis,

但就像技术一样，

公众舆论有其临界点。

are severely lacking.

在我年轻的时候，我参加了竞选活动 反对种族隔离。

But just like technology,

public opinion has its tipping point.

参加这场斗争，

那些示威，

In my youth, I campaigned against apartheid.

意味着动摇许多人认为 永远不会改变的一个系统的基础。

Participating in that fight,

those demonstrations,

但是，有一天，

meant shaking the foundations of a system many thought would never change.

经过几代人的缓慢进步，系统变了。

But then, one day,

压力太大了。

after generations of slow progress, the system changed.

重点倾斜了。

我们在底特律，汽车制造的核心。

The pressure was too great.

The point tipped.

请看这张图。

We're here in Detroit, the heart of car manufacturing.

电动汽车销售预计

到 2030 年将增加 70%。

Take a look at this graph.

Electric vehicle sales are expected to increase

另一个例子。

太阳能。

to become 70 percent by 2030.

2010 年至 2020 年间，

我们从安装的 20 千兆瓦太阳能

Another example.

Solar energy.

Between 2010 and 2020,

转向至 150 千兆瓦。

we moved from 20 gigawatts of solar energy installed

仅仅三年后，

预计这一数字还会增加到 每年 350 千兆瓦。

to 150 gigawatts.

Now, just three years later,

到 2030 年，

that number is expected to increase to 350 gigawatts per year.

预计这一数字还会 再次增加达到每年 1,000 千兆瓦。

And by 2030,

变化可以来得很快。

that number is expected to increase again to 1,000 gigawatts per year.

但时间并不站在我们这边。

从现在到 2030 年， 我们只有不到七年的时间，

Change can come fast.

让我们的全球排放量减半。

But time isn't on our side.

所以问题是： 这些转折点会不会很快到来，

We have less than seven years between now and 2030

to halve our global emissions.

避免气候变化的灾难性影响？

So the question is: Will those tipping points come soon enough

以目前的速度，变革来得太晚，

to avoid the catastrophic impacts of climate change?

无法将升温限制在 1.5 摄氏度。

At out current speed, change will come too late

这就是联合国气候变化框架公约

to limit warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius.

今年将完成的全球盘点的残酷事实。

That is the hard truth of the global stocktake

但这就是你能起到作用的地方。

that will be completed by the UNFCCC this year.

你可能认为推动变革不是你的责任。

But this is where you come in.

你可能认为你没有实现这一目标的力量。

You may think it's not your responsibility to drive change.

这两种说法都是错误的。

You may not think you have the power to make this happen.

在联合国气候变化框架公约上，

我们是这一过程的见证人。

Both of those statements are wrong.

我们是协议的捍卫者。

At the UNFCCC,

我们是各方及其达成的协议的拥护者。

we are the custodians of the process.

We're the defenders of the agreements.

但在全球范围内，

我们全都处于作家 金·斯坦利·罗宾逊（Kim Stanley Robinson）

We are the champions of parties and the agreements that they make.

描述的“抖动”之中。

But globally,

we're collectively in a state of what the author Kim Stanley Robinson

面对全球危机，

唯唯诺诺、无所作为的状态。

describes as “The Dithering.”

A state of indecision

但各国会同意提升行动。

and a state of inaction in the face of a global crisis.

如果有足够多的人鼓励他们这样做。

But countries will agree to boost in action.

联系您的代表并询问他们 他们正在做些什么来达到目标。

If enough people encourage them to do so.

他们有什么计划

Contact your representatives and ask them what they are doing to deliver.

来确保你对气候的担忧得到重视？

这种直接行动确实有效。

What plans do they have

to ensure that your concerns on climate count?

我看到当公民直接参与时，

That direct action does work.

局面一次又一次发生了变化。

I have seen positions change time and time again

每次你买东西，

问自己一个问题：

when citizens engage directly.

这是最环保的选择吗？

问问你周围的人他们的绿色选择。

Every time you buy something,

ask yourself the question:

Is this the greenest option?

学习新事物。

教育和动员。

Ask those around you about their green choices.

人类组织的力量可以带来变化。

Learn new things.

Educate and mobilize.

这就引出了我的最后一点。

The power of human organization can result in change.

你不必是政治家

或知名商人

Which brings me to my final point.

才能做出重大贡献。

You don't have to be a politician

气候行动需要各种技能。

or a prominent business person

to make a significant contribution.

问问自己：

我对什么充满热情？

Climate action calls for all skill sets.

我擅长什么？

Ask yourself:

我训练的目的是什么？

What am I passionate about?

然后问自己一个问题，

我该如何将其应用到气候危机上？

What am I good at?

What am I training for?

去做吧。

Then ask yourself the question,

how can I apply this to the climate crisis?

如果你采取行动，

所需的指数变化将会发生。

And do exactly that thing.

If you act,

谢谢。

the exponential change that is needed will happen.

（掌声）

I thank you.

(Applause)